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  • 1
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    Foundational Learning Compact Umbrella Trust Fund Progress Report : January 2021 - September 2022 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2113
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Edtech ; Education ; Education Indicators and Statistics ; Education Reform and Management ; FLC ; Foundational Learning ; Teachers ; Covid-19 ; Edtech ; Flc ; Foundational Learning ; Teachers
    Abstract: The FLC Progress Report showcases initiatives that have helped create tools and knowledge for countries to improve foundational learning through their educational systems. Since it is the first such report for the FLC, it will cover the transition to the FLC from the previous SABER3 program to its incarnation as the FLC umbrella trust fund. It will also examine recent and current challenges, including the slowdown in the pace of implementation during the COVID related school and ministry closures. The pandemic both stymied and shaped how the FLC initiatives worked, where we worked, and when we worked. We have had to adapt. Fortunately, implementation has picked up in the last year and technical teams have been working tirelessly to accelerate implementation
    DOI: 10.1596/40398
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  • 2
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    Iran Economic Monitor, Spring/Summer 2023 : Moderate Growth amid Economic Uncertainty - With a Special Focus: The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Labor Market in Iran (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Economic Uncertainty ; Gender and Development ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gendered Impact ; Labor and Employment Law ; Labor Market ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Women ; Covid-19 ; Economic Uncertainty ; Gendered Impact ; Labor Market ; Women
    Abstract: The Iran Economic Monitor (IEM) provides an update on key economic developments and policies. It examines these economic developments and policies in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications for the outlook for thecountry. The IEM's coverage ranges from the macroeconomy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. Iran's economy continued to grow moderately for the third consecutive year in 2022/23, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous year. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.8 percent in 2022/23, driven by expansions in services and manufacturing. Despite sanctions, the oil sector also expanded, aided by the tighter global oil markets. Favorable weather conditions helped the agriculture sector to marginally grow after the contractionsin previous years. On the expenditure side, private consumption was the main driver of GDP growth. Government consumption contracted to contain the budget deficit following a sharp expansionary policy in 2021/22. Meanwhile, exports and importsboth increased, and strong investment in machinery drove investments up, while construction investment marginally improved. However, the economy continuesto face growth constraints notably related to the economic sanctions, restricted access to external markets and to the latest technology, and much needed foreign investment. The Special Focus of the report highlights the scarring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, documenting the marked deterioration in labor market outcomes. Despite sizeable government interventions to sustain the economy, in the first year of the pandemic (2021/22), approximately 1 million Jobs were lost, and labor force participation contracted by 3 percentage points. Iranian women were the most affected: two out of three jobs lost between 2019/20 and 2020/21 were previously held by women. The gendered impact of the crisis contributed to widening Iranian's women disadvantage in the labor market. Most importantly, the gains in femalelabor force participation slowly accumulated since 2011 vanished. Consistent with what is observed in other countries, women with young children were the most affected by the crisis. The combined effect of school closures and unequal intra-household allocation of care responsibilities, associated with prevailing gender norms, pushed Iranian women with children out of the labor force. Whether or not these trends will be reversed as the management of the COVID-19 pandemic is normalized and the economy recovers from the crisis remains an important policy question
    DOI: 10.1596/40243
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  • 3
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    Learning Recovery to Acceleration : A Global Update on Country Efforts to Improve Learning and Reduce Inequalities (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Education Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Education ; Education Indicators and Statistics ; Education Reform and Management ; Learning Acceleration ; Learning Poverty ; Covid-19 ; Education ; Learning Acceleration ; Learning Poverty
    Abstract: Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global learning levels were unacceptably low. In 2019, learning poverty, the share of children unable to read and understand a simple text by age 10, had reached 57 percent in low- and middle-income countries (World Bank and others 2022b). This constituted a global learning crisis. Despite significant expansion in access to schooling in most low, and middle-income countries over the past 50 years to near-universal levels for primary school, progress in improving global learning levels had stalled. This report, Learning Recovery to Acceleration: A Global Update on Country Efforts to Improve Learning and Reduce Inequalities, takes stock of what countries have done so far to recover and accelerate learning since reopening schools, and what we have learned from their experience. It follows the RAPID Framework for Learning Recovery and Acceleration, which we published with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, U.K.'s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), UNESCO, UNICEF and USAID in 2022 as a menu of policy actions based on past evidence and on policies that many countries were already implementing. To a large extent, many of the policies and interventions needed to recover from the pandemic setbacks and accelerate learning are known. One lesson is clear: political and financial commitment are vital for improving learning and reducing inequality. Effective education strategies require societies' determination to make education a priority and devote the necessary human and financial resources to end the learning crisis. Policymakers, schools, and communities must work urgently to recover learning, tackle deep-rooted systemic challenges, and build resilience to future disruptions
    DOI: 10.1596/40012
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  • 4
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    Managing the Fiscal Implications of Public-Private Partnerships in a Sustainable and Resilient Manner : A Compendium of Good Practices and Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Pandemic (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Infrastructure Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Infrastructure Economics ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PPP ; Covid-19 ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Infrastructure ; Ppp
    Abstract: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) can sometimes be perceived as a means for delivering infrastructure for free. A more nuanced but still inexact view is that they are a mechanism to overcome fiscal constraints. Some argue, perhaps rightly, that often governments enter PPP contracts without fully understanding their fiscal implications. These misconceptions lead to several challenges. There is evidence that fiscal sustainability is often overlooked or ignored by countries with PPP programs, with long-term fiscal implications the governments did not understand or manage well. Governments also struggle with perceptions that they are not fully transparent about the real, ultimate costs of PPP projects. This report aims to illustrate how to improve fiscal risk management and treatment of fiscal commitments and contingent liabilities (FCCL) arising from PPP projects, to build better Infrastructure post-COVID-19. It intends to be a resource for World Bank client countries, including low income and fragile economies, to design their fiscal PPP management frameworks in a viable way that helps them develop their PPP programs while maintaining medium-to-long-term fiscal sustainability and resilience. With that in mind, Volume I highlights and contextualizes the main findings from a set of case studies that assessed the PPP fiscal risk management framework in select countries, and synthesizes the observable and qualitative results in managing the impact of crises, in particular the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on that, it also explores how this crisis has affected PPP projects and overall PPP programs, and suggests improvements to FCCL management frameworks in order to strengthen the capacity of countries to continue with their PPP programs in a sustainable fiscal manner. Volume II contains the detailed case studies on which Volume I is based
    DOI: 10.1596/39578
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  • 5
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    Pacific Island Countries : Financial Stability and Resilience in Turbulent Times (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Adaptation to Climate Change ; Climate Change ; COVID-19 ; Environment ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Systems ; Transition ; Vulnerabilities ; Climate Change ; Covid-19 ; Financial Systems ; Transition ; Vulnerabilities
    Abstract: This report provides an assessment of the stability of the financial systems of selected Pacific Island Countries (PICs) in the context of COVID-19 and emerging risks. The report brings together an analysis of information provided by the central banks of the PICs covered by this study over the last two years. The purpose of the study is to assess the financial stability and vulnerabilities and to provide technical guidance to the PIC authorities to assist in their financial sector policy response. Chapter 1 presents an overview of the financial systems of the PICs. Chapter 2 presents an analysis of the impacts of COVID-19 on the financial systems of the PCIs and the policy responses to the pandemic. Chapter 3 looks at the challenges of transitioning from the pandemic to normal policy settings. Chapter 4 provides a set of bespoke policy recommendations with the aim of enhancing the ability to deal with financial sector risks and vulnerabilities. Finally, Chapter 5 puts forward recommendations for the assessment of climate and environmental related risks on the PICs. The report finds that the pandemic has negatively impacted economic growth in the PICs, challenging financial stability. Due to various relief measures adopted by governments in the region, and the lagged economic impact of the pandemic, the PICs' financial sectors do not yet fully reflect the risks to bank profitability and asset quality, which could materialize over 2022-23. Response and
    DOI: 10.1596/39455
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  • 6
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    The World Bank Group's Early Support to Addressing the COVID-19 Economic Response, April 2020 - June 2021 : An Early-Stage Evaluation (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Independent Evaluation Group Studies
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Impact ; Economic Insecurity ; Economic Stabilization ; Future Crisis ; Institutional Level ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Recovery ; Strategic Level ; Covid-19 ; Economic Impact ; Future Crisis ; Institutional Level ; Recovery ; Strategic Level
    Abstract: In the face of the global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the World Bank delivered the largest crisis response in its history. This evaluation assesses the Bank Group's early response to the economic crises caused by COVID-19, and examines interventions over the 15 months from April 2020 through June 2021. The report considers two evaluation windows: the acute crisis phase (April 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020) and the incipient recovery phase (January 1, 2021 to June 30, 2021). The objective of identifying the two windows was to assess whether the Bank Group internalized learning from the first period of the crisis to address the challenges that were materializing in the (incipient) recovery phase. The evaluation assesses the relevance of the Bank Group's interventions on three dimensions: the extent to which the Bank Group targeted its early response based on clients' and sectors' needs, the extent to which the Bank Group used timely diagnostics and lessons from past crises to inform its early response, and the extent to which the early response leveraged the Bank Group's comparative advantages. The evaluation studies the quality of the Bank Group response on three dimensions: the extent to which the Bank Group early response influenced client strategies; the extent to which the Bank Group coordinated its early response among its constituent institutions and with development partners; and how well the Bank Group early response handled monitoring, safeguards, and governance. The evaluation offers two near-term recommendations to strengthen the role of the Bank Group as a crisis responder, which is now more critical than ever
    DOI: 10.1596/38514
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  • 7
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    China Economic Update, December 2022 : Navigating Uncertainty - China's Economy in 2023 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Consumer Demand ; COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Low Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Unemployment ; Youth ; Consumer Demand ; Covid-19 ; Low Inflation ; Unemployment ; Youth
    Abstract: Activity in China continues to track the ups and downs of the pandemic - outbreaks and growth slowdowns have been followed by uneven recoveries. After a downturn caused by the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks and stringent public health measures in April and May, activity picked up in the third quarter as infections receded. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.9 percent y/y in Q3, from 0.4 percent in Q2. High frequency indicators suggest another growth slowdown in the fourth quarter amid a return of high COVID-19 cases. Despite fiscal and monetary policy support, real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.7 percent in 2022 - 1.6 percentage points lower than projected in the June China economic update. In 2023 growth is projected to recover to 4.3 percent but remain below the potential rate
    DOI: 10.1596/39522
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  • 8
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    Pacific Economic Update, February 2023 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Post-Pandemic ; Public Debt ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; Tourism ; Travel-Dependent ; Covid-19 ; Post-pandemic ; Public Debt ; Tourism ; Travel-dependent
    Abstract: This publication is the inaugural edition of the future publication series on Pacific Economic Update (PEU). It consists of two parts. Part A analyzes the recent economic developments in Pacific Islands. Based on these developments, the PI EU summarizes the outlook for the region's economies and risks to this outlook. Second, the PEU provides an in-depth examination of a public debt issues in the Pacific and proposes policy recommendations to address public debt related challenges. The PEU is intended for a broad set of audience, including regional forums, policy makers, business leaders, international donors and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in the economies of Pacific Island countries. In dealing with the challenges of rising inflation, tepid recovery from the pandemic and global slowdown, the PICs should strike a balance between supporting livelihoods and reducing future public debt risks. The need for fiscal support during the current environment of high inflation and tepid economic recovery is understandable as it provides the much needed relief for vulnerable households and businesses to navigate the crisis. Nonetheless, these support measures create significant fiscal burdens, and are unsustainable, particularly if the high energy and food prices persist longer than envisaged. Most PICs already face low capacity to finance unexpected shocks which would be further tested by a natural disaster event. Therefore, PICs should tread a delicate balance between fiscal support measures and achieving fiscal sustainability. Any forthcoming fiscal support should be well-targeted, time-bound, and deficit-neutral. Over the medium-term, fiscal efficiency gains and ongoing donor support is critical to finance key development challenges and climate adaptation. Revenue-based fiscal consolidation measures could include improving the efficiency of tax collections and eliminating tax exemptions. On the expenditure side, PICs have limited room to sharply cut spending given the expected modest growth and ongoing development needs. Therefore, it becomes imperative to improve the efficiency of public spending, to maximize social dividends for every dollar spent. Resulting savings from fiscal consolidation measures could help build sovereign wealth funds to provide added fiscal buffers during shocks and economic downturns. Due to high vulnerability to disasters and climate change, PICs will need to seek ongoing concessional financing for critical climate adaptation and development needs
    DOI: 10.1596/39523
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  • 9
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    Strengthening Financial Stability, Resilience and Safety Nets in the Pacific Islands : Compilation of In-Depth Papers (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Banking Supervision ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Economic Stabilization ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Macroprudential ; Microprudential ; Banking Supervision ; Covid-19 ; Financial Stability ; Macroprudential ; Microprudential
    Abstract: Over the past two years, the World Bank has been working with Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to assess the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic on their financial systems and provide guidance to the PIC prudential authorities on policy issues relating to strengthening the resilience of financial systems in the region. As part of this work program, the World Bank produced a series of seven deep dive papers on a range of issues relating to financial stability in the PICs. Each paper was presented during an online workshop with the prudential authorities of the PICs and followed by a Questions and Answers session. The papers in the series are: COVID-19 and financial stability: guidance on financial system surveillance in the pandemic, COVID-19 and stress testing, micro prudential and macro prudential policy: seeking the right balance, early intervention in banking supervision, recovery planning for banks, bank resolution, and financial safety nets This volume pulls together these deep dive papers while being mindful that each paper stands on its own. Yet, an integrated approach is needed in all these policy areas, and it is vital to tailor reforms to country specific circumstances This recognizes that, even in a stable financial system there will inevitably be periods of financial stress and that there is a need to ensure that frameworks are in place to address these events cost-effectively and in ways that preserve market discipline, avoid moral hazard and minimize fiscal risks. Private
    DOI: 10.1596/39456
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  • 10
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    Cambodia Economic Update, May 2023 : Post-COVID-19 Economic Recovery (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pandemic ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Spending ; Covid-19 ; Economic Growth ; Pandemic ; Public Spending
    Abstract: Cambodia's economic recovery solidified in 2022 with real growth accelerating to 5.2 percent. After shifting to "living with COVID-19" in late 2021, the economy is firmly on a path to recovery and has now returned to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Initially led by the strong performance of export-oriented manufacturing, growth drivers are rotating to the services and agriculture sectors. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector is benefitting from improved access to regional markets, thanks to newly ratified bi-lateral and regional free trade agreements. Weakening external demand is, however, starting to weigh on the country's economic recovery. Despite weakening goods export performance, the current account balance is improving, thanks to the rebound in the travel and tourism industry and remittances, while the oil price shock eased. The economic recovery and good revenue administration underpinned an across-the board improvement in domestic revenue collection. The authorities continued to provide cash transfers for poor and vulnerable households, although the worst of the pandemic is now behind us. In this regard, the Cambodian authorities have extended the COVID-19 cash transfer program, with an additional budget. To enhance the long-term resilience and competitiveness of the economy, efforts are needed to further promote export product diversification
    DOI: 10.1596/39931
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  • 11
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    Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2023 : The Invisible Toll of COVID-19 on Learning (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Education Finance ; Education Reform and Management ; Education System ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Learning Losses ; Pandemic ; Covid-19 ; Education System ; Learning ; Learning Losses ; Pandemic
    Abstract: Commodity windfalls and private consumption have sustained Indonesia's growth despite a difficult global environment, but signs of normalizing domestic demand are emerging. Inflation is easing at a faster pace than markets anticipated. Indonesia's external vulnerabilities remain moderate. The fiscal stance has normalized reflecting faster fiscal consolidation, anchored by a broad-based rise in revenues and prudent public spending. Softening inflation and resilient capital flows have led Bank Indonesia (BI) to ease its pace of monetary tightening. The outlook remains stable as the economy normalizes following the post-pandemic recovery. While this is a robust outcome given levels of global uncertainty, Indonesia still faces declining productivity growth like other emerging market economies. Policy makers are encouraged to build on recent reforms and adopt further market-friendly policies and reduce constraints to competition to accelerate productivity growth. The Government of Indonesia (GoI) has put tremendous efforts into mitigating the learning disruption caused by COVID-19. This study provides new evidence of learning loss in math and language, comparing data on grade 4 student learning before and after the COVID-19 pandemic-induced school closures across Indonesia. In line with international literature on COVID-19 - induced learning losses, students' future earnings and Indonesia's future productivity will be negatively affected if no action is taken. This study highlights the urgency of addressing learning loss by stimulating political commitment for learning recovery and prompting deliberate actions, with adequate resources to complete them
    DOI: 10.1596/39921
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  • 12
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    The Future of Pacific Tourism (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: General Economy, Macroeconomics, and Growth Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Development ; Economic Growth ; Higher Value Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Obstacles ; Pacific ; Policies ; Tourism ; Covid-19 ; Higher Value Markets ; Obstacles ; Pacific ; Policies ; Tourism
    Abstract: Over the two decades preceding the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, tourism became one of the most important drivers of economic growth across the Pacific. The COVID-19 crisis had a devastating impact on tourism activity in the Pacific, with severe and potentially durable economic and social consequences. This study takes a fresh look at tourism's role for development in the Pacific, its future after COVID-19, and the scope to foster a greener, more resilient, competitive, and inclusive sector. It complements and builds on the 2016 Pacific possible report, which assessed specific opportunities to increase arrivals in a context of rapid tourism growth, by considering the changes to the industry's model that could maximize tourism's economic, social, and environmental benefits for Pacific Islanders. It does this by: (i) taking stock of the evidence on tourism's historical contribution to development in the Pacific Island Country (PICs) and of the COVID-19 crisis' impacts, (ii) analyzing current obstacles and potential opportunities for a more competitive and sustainable Pacific tourism, focusing on selected issues key to target higher value markets, and (iii) recommending policy priorities and investment needs to (re)position the Pacific tourism model for the future and broaden its benefits, focusing on competitiveness, environmental sustainability, resilience and inclusiveness. Given the scarcity of data on Pacific tourism and frequent discrepancies across sources, one of the study's main contributions is to provide a detailed quantitative assessment of the sector and its economic impacts, for instance on jobs, poverty, and public revenue, based on an extensive data collection, cross-checking and integration exercise
    DOI: 10.1596/39738
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  • 13
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    Macro Poverty Outlook for Azerbaijan : April 2023; Datasheet (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; GDP ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pandemic
    Abstract: In Azerbaijan, economic growth was 4.6 percent in 2022, driven by non-energy sectors supported by recovering demand and fiscal expansion. Inflation accelerated sharply to 13.8 percent, driven by import prices. In the medium-term, growth is expected to moderate as non-energy sector growth returns to pre-COVID levels while the energy sector shrinks further. Risks to this outlook are balanced. This Macro Poverty Outlook presents GDP, debt and fiscal forecasts and examines the implications for critical economic and social concepts such as growth, poverty reduction and macroeconomic stability
    DOI: 10.1596/39662
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  • 14
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    Crisis and Recovery : Learning from COVID-19's Economic Impacts and Policy Responses in East Asia (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Economic Impacts ; Employment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Support ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policies ; Covid-19 ; Economic Impacts ; Employment ; Fiscal Support ; Policies
    Abstract: More than three years after the first COVID-19 case was discovered in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, it is time to take stock of the lasting effects-and opportunities-of the pandemic and identify which policies may have helped stem the economic losses suffered by households and firms. To do so, this regional report examines the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on households and firms in six countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. This volume examines: (a) the links between impacts on firms and households, in particular through the employment channel, and (b) governments' fiscal responses to the COVID crisis, through transfers, subsidies, and taxes. It identifies and explains changes in household well-being by examining the economic effects of the pandemic on labor markets. As the source of employment and wage income, businesses have a direct role in determining jobs and earnings, and, indirectly, welfare, poverty, and inequality. When faced with a shock, firms responded by adjusting employment, reducing wages, increasing prices, and reducing services provided. All of these channels directly affected households' wellbeing. For this reason, the report focuses on firms in addition to households. Governments responded through various instruments, providing transfers and subsidies and lowering the tax burden to both households and firms
    DOI: 10.1596/39977
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  • 15
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    Social Protection Situational Analysis : Montenegro (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Cash Transfers ; COVID-19 ; Labor Market ; Pensions ; Pensions and Retirement Systems ; Poverty ; Social Analysis ; Social Assessment ; Social Development ; Social Funds ; Social Protection System ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; Cash Transfers ; Covid-19 ; Labor Market ; Pensions ; Poverty ; Social Protection System
    Abstract: A period of economic growth over the past decade led to a reduction in poverty and improvements in labor market outcomes in Montenegro. Substantial challenges remain, which have been aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic, drawing attention to the role that social protection plays in reducing poverty and promoting human capital. This note presents a situational analysis of the social protection system in Montenegro. It assesses the extent to which the social protection system in Montenegro fulfils its purpose and proposes areas for reform in the short, medium, and long term. To this end, this note seeks to assess each category of social protection, namely: social assistance, social services, social insurance (specifically pensions) and labor market programs, in terms of program coverage, equity, sustainability and effectiveness
    DOI: 10.1596/39413
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  • 16
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    Yemen Country Economic Memorandum 2022 : Glimmers of Hope in Dark Times (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Economic Memorandum
    Keywords: Conflict ; COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Food Insecurity ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Conflict ; Covid-19 ; Food Insecurity ; Inflation ; Poverty
    Abstract: Yemen's economy has been transformed by eight years of violent conflict. War has shattered the country's already fragile economic equilibrium, touching upon virtually every aspect of life. The compounded shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising global prices have only deepened the economic and humanitarian disaster precipitated by the war. Since the start of the conflict, economic analyses have tended to focus on the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, the sharp rise in poverty and food insecurity, and the destruction of infrastructure and the capital stock, but relatively little attention has been paid to the current structure of the economy or what prospects can be envisaged for the country. Also, it is important to situate this analysis within the political economy dynamics of the country which majorly affect the economic development challenges of the country. Data constraints and the unique characteristics of Yemen's recent experience limit the effectiveness of traditional growth-analysis methodologies. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) uses novel data-collection methods and analytical techniques, triangulating its findings with traditional approaches and direct data collection to close the economic knowledge gap. Information sources include extensive key-informant interviews, household phone surveys, and remotely sensed geospatial data based on satellite imagery, including nighttime illumination data. This CEM also combines an in-depth political economy analysis with economic development investigation
    DOI: 10.1596/39914
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  • 17
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    Mozambique Poverty Assessment, June 2023 : Poverty Reduction Setback in Times of Compounding Shocks (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Environmental Shocks ; Fiscal System ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty and Equity ; Poverty Reduction ; Urban Areas ; Covid-19 ; Environmental Shocks ; Fiscal System ; Poverty And Equity ; Urban Areas
    Abstract: This report relies on several data sources. The main source providing the poverty, inequality and labor figures herein is the 2019/20 Household Budget Survey (Inquerito sobre Orcamento Familiar, IOF2019/2020) conducted by the National Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, INE) starting in November 2019 and spanning 13 months. The survey's sample was drawn from the 2017 Census and allows for poverty figures to be representative at national and provincial as well as rural and urban levels. The fieldwork included data collection from 13,297 households interviewed across four quarters as in previous surveys, to account for seasonality effects like the impact on households' consumption of relatively more abundant post-harvest periods. The starting point for the analysis is chapter 1, which synthesizes progress in reducing poverty between 2014-15 and 2019-20. This chapter also looks at the regional distribution of poverty, the impact of the pandemic, multidimensional poverty, the profile of the poor, changes in the responsiveness of poverty to growth, discusses trends in non-monetary dimensions of wellbeing, and simulates future poverty trends. Chapter 2 examines the distribution of growth and inequality reduction over the period, the pandemic's impact, discusses the growth-poverty-inequality relationship, assesses the spatial dimensions of poverty, and estimates the Human Opportunity Index for Mozambique. Chapter 3 focuses on labor markets and provides insights into labor force participation, unemployment, underemployment, employment sectors, child labor, and labor market demand conditions. Chapter 4 presents a fiscal incidence analysis and information on transfers. Chapter 5 examines the relevance of environmental shocks, assesses the impact of weather events on agricultural production and night-time light radiance in urban areas. It also models poverty and distributional impacts of climate change shocks and presents findings on climate change literacy in Mozambique. Finally, chapter 6 discusses a variety of policy implications
    DOI: 10.1596/40106
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  • 18
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    Stronger Social Protection and Labor Systems in Central America for a Resilient and Inclusive Recovery (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Adaptive ; COVID-19 ; Inclusive Recovery ; Limited Spending ; Resilience ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; SPL ; Adaptive ; Covid-19 ; Inclusive Recovery ; Limited Spending ; Resilience ; Spl
    Abstract: Social Protection and Labor (SPL) Systems help individuals and societies manage risk and volatility and protect them from poverty through instruments that address the challenges of resilience, equity and opportunity. SPL systems include social safety nets, social insurance, and labor market programs. As recent events have shown, the relative emphasis among goals - resilience, equity and opportunity - can change over time, with demands put on SPL program design and delivery systems differing in each context. In relatively stable times, programs are likely to focus on human capital formation, equality of opportunity, poverty reduction, and redistribution. This was the case in Central America prior to the COVID-19 emergency, albeit with some shortcomings. The goal of shock-responsiveness (resilience) dramatically came to the fore during the pandemic, even if recognized earlier during natural disasters and now more broadly with climate change. Globally and in Central America, SPL systems had a critical role in the response to the COVID-19 emergency
    DOI: 10.1596/40226
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  • 19
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    Change Cannot Wait : Building Resilient Health Systems in the Shadow of COVID-19 (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Health Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Health Indicators ; Health Insurance ; Health Shocks ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Resources ; Covid-19 ; Decision-making ; Eoc ; Governance ; Health Crises ; Health Security ; Health Shocks ; Health System Resilience ; Human Resources ; One Health ; Pandemic Preparedness ; Partnership ; Ppr ; Primary Health Care ; Universal Health Coverage
    Abstract: As the world approaches the third anniversary of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, the devastating health, economic, and societal impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic remain on every continent. COVID-19 underscored how unprepared we are for a public-health emergency of staggering proportions. And yet potentially graver health threats loom. The increasing number of acute infectious diseases combines with trends such as population aging, chronic-disease burdens, and climate change to raise the risk of syndemics-events in which two or more diseases adversely interact with each other and with political and economic conditions of inequality and poverty. The only way to prevent, prepare for, and manage these threats is by building resilient health systems to withstand shocks and improve health outcomes between crises. This report, which is filled with country examples of resilience, shows how strengthening resilience is within every country's reach, even those with low incomes. It describes the key features of resilient systems as integrated systems that are aware of threats; agile in response to evolving needs; absorptive of shocks; adaptive to minimize disruptions; and able to transform after crises, based on lessons learned. The report makes recommendations for countries to operationalize resilience based on a framework that prioritizes investments according to their impact. The most important investments center on risk reduction, including prevention and community preparedness. The second most important investments focus on disease detection, containment, and mitigation to contain outbreaks before they spread widely. The final set focuses on advanced case management and surge response during an epidemic or pandemic, making this the most expensive and least cost-effective tier. The final message of the report is urgency. Investments are needed to save lives and economies - before it is too late
    Note: World
    DOI: 10.1596/38233
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  • 20
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    Jamaica - Systematic Country Diagnostic : Boosting Recovery and Sustainable Economic Growth (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Systematic Country Diagnostics
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Growth ; Economic Recovery ; Gross Domestic Product ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Covid-19 ; Economic Recovery ; Gross Domestic Product ; Inflation
    Abstract: This first Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Jamaica comes at a pivotal time. The country is seeking a return to the pre-COVID-19 path of fiscal consolidation amid a slow COVID vaccine roll-out, high inflationary pressures, and persistent structural constraints to growth.1 COVID-19 laid bare existing vulnerabilities, causing real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to contract a record 10 percent in 2020, with a near closure of most tourism activities depressing incomes for more than 40 percent of the country's workers. The government deployed countercyclical fiscal measures to stem the economic downturn, while strengthening the health sector, supporting the financial sector, and mitigating the impact on poor households through further income support. Inflation had surged to 11.8 percent as of April 2022, posing a growing threat to the purchasing power of the poor in particular. The monetary authorities have been proactive, but rising interest rates could undermine the ongoing recovery. In 2020, the government committed to ambitious targets under the Paris Agreement to transform Jamaica into a low-emissions and climate-resilient economy
    Note: Caribbean , Jamaica , Latin America & Caribbean
    DOI: 10.1596/38266
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  • 21
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    From Reacting to Preventing Pandemics : Building Animal Health and Wildlife Systems for One Health in East Asia and the Pacific (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Health Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Food Security ; Covid-19 ; Emerging Infectious Diseases (eids) ; Food Security ; Health And Nutrition ; Pathogen Spillover ; Transboundary Animal Diseases (tads)
    Abstract: Investing in One Health - cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary coordination and collaboration across the human health, animal health, and environmental health sectors - is crucial for maintaining healthy agricultural and food systems and addressing global health security risks. Such action can reduce the threat of future pandemics through upstream preventive actions, early detection, and agile responses to zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases outbreaks, coupled with measures for promoting food safety, including anti-microbial resistance. This regional review, conducted jointly by the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, assesses the socioeconomic impacts of zoonotic diseases and epidemics across the East Asia and Pacific region, providing a background on why emerging infectious diseases are occurring more frequently in this region. This review looks at the benefits of using a risk-based approach, assesses the management of animal and wildlife health and the ability to identify and respond to emerging threats and protect the health, agricultural production, and ecosystem services. It provides recommendations on priority activities to be undertaken, and offers governments and their development partners the evidence and analysis needed to make more and better investments in wildlife systems and animal health to improve global health security
    DOI: 10.1596/37447
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  • 22
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    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2022 (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464819216
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (82 pages)
    Series Statement: Europe and Central Asia Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Debt ; Diseases ; Finances ; Food ; Food Markets ; Fuel ; Pandemic ; Economic Growth ; Economic Outlook ; Fiscal Policy ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Inflation ; Poverty And Inequality
    Abstract: East Asia and the Pacific does not so far conform to the current narrative of stagflation. The region, with some exceptions, is growing faster and has lower inflation than other regions. And prospects for several countries have improved, as they bounced back from the distress of the Delta wave in a still buoyant global economy. But this rosy picture must not obscure four impediments to inclusive and sustainable growth: disease, deceleration, debt, and distortions. In particular, current policies to contain inflation and debt are distorting the markets for food, fuel and finance in ways that could compromise development goals. In each case, more efficient measures could address current difficulties without undermining longer term objectives
    Note: East Asia
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  • 23
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    Gulf Economic Update : Green Growth Opportunities in the GCC (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Recovery ; Economic Stabilization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Covid-19 ; Economic Impact Of Climate Change ; Economic Recovery ; Gulf Cooperation Council (gcc) ; Intraregional Trade
    Abstract: The world economy was on track for a strong, albeit uneven, recovery from COVID-19. However, the war in the Ukraine and supply-chain disruptions exacerbated by shutdowns in China due to the zero-COVID policy are dealing a serious blow to global recovery. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), however, is expected to perform strongly this year. Booming hydrocarbon prices have eased pressure on fiscal balances and public sector debt and has increased current account surpluses in the GCC. Despite efforts by GCC countries, diversification is still below potential. There is progress in the non-oil economy but limited success in non-oil exports. Structural reforms must be continued to help nurture a competitive private sector. There is however an excellent and timely opportunity to diversify further the economy using a green growth strategy. The extra windfall from higher oil prices to the GCC can be used to start new high-growth, green industries that would help the economies of the region grow by an extra 3-6 percent as detailed in the Focus section of this update. The special focus section also emphasizes that there is no inherent long run trade-off between emissions reductions, economic growth, and poverty alleviation. Moving away from fossil fuels towards a greener future should not be seen as a threat but as a tremendous opportunity as the costs of renewable energy have fallen dramatically in recent years. The region already has three record-breaking, low-cost auctions for solar energy supply in Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. The region also has the potential to be a lead producer of green and blue hydrogen. With the right regulations, policies, and investments to support the transition, GCC countries can emerge with stronger, more sustainable economies that generate rewarding jobs for their youth while simultaneously protecting the planet. Finally, this report highlights potential pathways for GCC countries to benefit from and play a leading role in the global transition to a low-carbon economy
    Note: Middle East , Middle East and North Africa
    DOI: 10.1596/38255
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  • 24
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    Adaptive Social Protection in Southern Africa (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Public Sector Development ; Covid-19 ; Effects Of Climate Change ; Southern Africa Customs Union (sacu)
    Abstract: The countries of the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) - Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa are exposed to climatic shocks, especially drought, that pose a continual threat to lives and livelihoods across the subregion. The pandemic has compounded these existing vulnerabilities. Climatic shocks such as these tend to affect the poorest most, exacerbating inequalities and increasing poverty. Food insecurity, which is chronic in the subregion and both a root cause of vulnerability to drought and an outcome of it also increased as a result of impacts from the pandemic. Social safety net programs can help poor and vulnerable households manage the risks they face from shocks, helping to mitigate the impacts on poverty and food insecurity, but their effectiveness can be constrained in several ways. The mobilization of social protection in response to COVID-19 and the challenges that have emerged to that mobilization have strengthened the case for investments in preparedness ahead of future shocks. Adaptive social protection refers to an agenda for preparing social protection systems to improve their response to shocks and to build the resilience of poor and vulnerable households. This report takes stock of ASP in four of the five SACU countries and provides targeted recommendations for each country's development
    Note: Africa , Africa , Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) , Botswana , Eswatini , Lesotho , South Africa , Southern Africa
    DOI: 10.1596/38256
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  • 25
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    New Approaches to Closing the Fiscal Gap (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464819292
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (65 pages)
    Series Statement: Latin America and Caribbean Semiannual Report
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Efficiency ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Revenue ; Growth ; Inflation ; Personal Income Tax ; Public Spending ; Covid-19 ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal Adjustement ; Fiscal Revenue ; Inflation ; Latin America And The Caribbean ; Personal Income Tax ; Public Spending Efficiency ; Uncertainty
    Abstract: As the COVID+?19 crisis recedes, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is back to work and looking forward. Reported deaths related to the pandemic are low and have plausibly converged to global levels. Yet low vaccination rates in some countries leave them vulnerable to new variants. In most countries, gross domestic product (GDP) and employment have fully recovered their 2019 levels, although forecasted growth rates might be said to be "resiliently mediocre+?: banking systems appear sound, and rising debt burdens are manageable so far, but growth is not expected to exceed the low levels of the 2010 decade. Poverty in terms of income (monetary poverty) has largely receded with the economic recovery, but the longer+?term scars of the pandemic in terms of education and health have planted deep seeds of future inequality. Redressing these problems and undertaking the structural reforms needed to reach higher levels of growth and reduce poverty remain central on the policy agenda. The new and unwelcome entrant in the policy space is inflation. While comparable to advanced country levels and well managed by regional monetary authorities, inflation nonetheless is being propelled by forces that may give it more staying power than originally hoped. Finally, public deficits induced by the pandemic and the need to finance critical government programs and directions have opened a fiscal gap and led to constrained fiscal space. The need to close the fiscal gap, put debt on a sustainable footing, and generate fiscal space to finance necessary physical and social investments has led to a search for new revenues and in particular to pressure to increase income taxes. In looking at any tax hike, concerns center on the possible depressive effects on growth, overall progressivity, and possible incentives for informality. This report presents new evidence on these effects for value added taxes (VAT) and income taxes. It also advocates for steps to cut wasteful government spending and increase government efficiency-both to generate substantial resources and as an entry point to a broader agenda of state modernization and generating public trust
    Note: Latin America and the Caribbean
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  • 26
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    Libya Economic Monitor, Summer 2022 (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Wirtschaftsentwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Preisentwicklung ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Entwicklung ; Tendenz ; Agriculture ; Civil Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; COVID-19 ; Energy ; Food Security ; Health and Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Immunizations ; Inflation ; Oil and Gas ; Libyen ; Civil Conflict ; Covid-19 ; Epidemiological Situation ; Food Security Crisis ; Humanitarian Conditions ; Inflation ; Limited Access ; Liquidity Crisis ; Loss Of Jobs ; Public Services ; Volatile Oil Production ; War In Ukraine
    Abstract: Libya is struggling to cope with a trifecta of crises, including the civil conflict, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and most recently, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Notwithstanding the tempering of conflict intensity since 2021, the Libyan economy has been battered by the conflict. GDP per capita estimates in 2021 stood at about half of its value in 2010 before the start of the conflict. Since 2020, the population has been hit by multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The health system, already affected by a decade of conflict, has struggled to deliver the necessary access and quality of care amid a raging pandemic. While Libya has reported a marked decline in COVID-19 cases and deaths since March 2022, the vaccination rate remains low. In addition, food insecurity has worsened, precipitated by the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the resulting shortages and price increases for staple foods in the domestic market
    Note: Libya , Middle East and North Africa
    DOI: 10.1596/37947
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  • 27
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    Expecting the Unexpected : Tools and Policy Considerations to Support the Recovery and Resilience of the Tourism Sector (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: General Economy, Macroeconomics, and Growth Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Economic Stabilization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Covid-19 ; Effects On Demand ; Effects On Supply ; Market Structure ; Recovery ; Support Initiatives ; Tourism Sector
    Abstract: Tourism has been, and continues to be, one of the most affected sectors by the pandemic, resulting in negative socio-economic consequences for host communities in destinations as well as for underlying endowments that rely on tourists' expenditure for maintenance and management. The aim of this report is to provide insights regarding the types of interventions governments have already implemented and policy considerations for supporting the recovery and resilience of the tourism sector going forward, particularly in light of structural demand and supply-side transformations precipitated or accelerated by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The report studies the challenges for recovery faced by governments and the sector from the context of preexisting market and government failures that have been exacerbated by the crisis, as well as those emerging from the pandemic. The report includes several key findings and recommendations
    Note: World
    DOI: 10.1596/37858
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  • 28
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    Mongolia 2020 Poverty Report : A Decade of Progress and Stagnation in Poverty Reduction (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Inequality ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Covid-19 ; Household Coping Strategies ; Inequality ; International Poverty Trends ; Non-monetary Dimensions ; Policy Responses ; Poverty Reduction ; Spatial Disparities
    Abstract: Mongolia made notable strides in reducing poverty from 2010 to 2014, but the pace of poverty reduction slowed significantly after the 2016 economic recession. The trend of declining inequality and inclusive growth seen in the first half of the decade changed course in the latter half. Greater urbanization and narrowing geographical disparities in poverty have meant that the poor have become increasingly concentrated in urban centers, especially Ulaanbaatar. Economic volatility and uncertainty together with restrictions on face-to-face services may have led to an increase in precautionary saving among households, particularly during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. An additional issue related to the measurement of consumption in 2020 specifically is the survey-to-survey imputation approach that was used to estimate poverty and the consumption distribution due to changes in the household socio-economic survey (HSES) questionnaire. Finally, despite significant increases, social transfers have had only modest success in reducing poverty due to targeting inefficiencies. The 2020 HSES shows that impacts to employment in 2020 were not significant until the final quarter, with workers in urban areas and in the service sector more likely to be affected. While subsequent surveys will provide a clearer picture of the longer-term impacts of the pandemic, signs of potentially lasting and unequalizing effects have emerged after 2020
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Mongolia
    DOI: 10.1596/38003
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  • 29
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    Blue Tourism in Islands and Small Tourism-Dependent Coastal States : Tools and Recovery Strategies (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Tourism and Ecotourism ; Blue Tourism ; Coastal States ; Covid-19 ; Market Demand Trends ; Sids ; Small Tourism ; Sustainability Pathways
    Abstract: Small island developing states and small tourism-dependent coastal states have been the most gravely impacted by global climate and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crises and are expected to face even greater economic and social challenges in the years to come. While information and research on sustainable and blue tourism in small island developing states (SIDS) does exist, it is hard to find, difficult to analyze, and challenging to turn into policy guidance. This guidance note is a synthesis of findings from a literature review of the inventory of blue tourism resources, consumer market research, and tourism trend monitoring undertaken by the World Bank global tourism team since the start of COVID-19
    Note: World
    DOI: 10.1596/38121
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  • 30
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    South Asia Economic Focus (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464819209
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (212 pages)
    Series Statement: South Asia Economic Focus
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Balance of Payments ; Commodity Prices ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Food Insecurity ; Inflation ; Labor Market ; Migration ; Pandemic ; Remittances ; Carbon Reduction ; Covid-19 ; Export Sector ; Food And Energy Prices ; Foreign Capital Flows ; Green Transition ; Import ; Inflation ; Migration ; Remittances Inflows ; Russia-ukraine War ; War In Ukraine
    Abstract: South Asia is facing renewed challenges. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food and energy prices on domestic inflation is long-lasting. Externally, countries' current account balances deteriorate rapidly as imports rise on the back of economic recovery and rising inflation, remittances decline, and foreign capital flows out following monetary tightening in advanced economies. An economic slowdown in advanced economies and trading partners can also be a drag to the exports sector and remittances inflows, which many countries in the region depend on. These immediate challenges can translate to persistent deterrent to long-term growth and development. Higher energy prices already are changing the attitude of many countries outside the region about green transition and carbon reduction. The South Asia region is thus at a critical juncture. The theme chapter provides a deep dive into COVID-19 and migration. Migrant workers and remittances flows are important for South Asia as sources of income and means to smooth local income shocks for households, and as an important source of foreign reserves for the country. The pandemic changed the flows of migration, as some migrants had to return home and some had to stay in foreign countries due to COVID-related restrictions. The chapter studies the long-run trend of migration in the region, how COVID-19 impacted migration and remittance inflows, whether migration has (or has not) recovered, and proposes policies to address underlying problems
    Note: South Asia , South Asia
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  • 31
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    Timor-Leste Economic Report : Investing in the Next Generation (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Health Economics and Finance ; Health Policy and Management ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Country Economic Update ; Covid-19 ; Global Pandemic ; Gross Capital Formation ; State Of Emergency ; Vaccination Rates
    Abstract: Buffeted by COVID-19 and Tropical Cyclone Seroja, the non-oil economy grew by 1.5 percent in 2021. A record-high budget with expenditure of nearly 90 percent of GDP bolstered government consumption. A series of fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus measures supported employment and incomes, thereby allowing households to maintain their consumption. On the demand side, gross capital formation shrunk while net exports expanded. The oil economy grew by 8.3 percent, bringing the total economic growth to 4.4 percent.1 The government lifted the pandemic-related state of emergency at the end of November 2021, but challenges remain. Following a relatively brisk start, the vaccination campaign has moved sluggishly in recentmonths. Nevertheless, the authorities have initiated vaccination of children and adolescents between 12 and 18 years old, while booster shots have been made available. There has been a concerning surge of Dengue Fever with 5,000 reported cases (and 54 fatalities) to date since January 2022-a more than seven-fold increase from the same period a year ago. All restrictions for inbound international vaccinated travelers to Timor-Leste havebeen rescinded. By the end of May 2022, the partly vaccinated and fully vaccinated figures in Timor-Leste stood at 85.4 percent and 73.4 percent, respectively
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Timor-Leste
    DOI: 10.1596/37604
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  • 32
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    Iraq Economic Monitor, Spring 2022 : Harnessing the Oil Windfall for Sustainable Growth (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Governance ; Gross Domestic Product ; Irrigation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Armed Conflict ; Covid-19 ; Global Supply Chain ; Gross Domestic Product ; Irrigation ; Oil Markets
    Abstract: Iraq's economy is gradually emerging from the deep recession caused by the pandemic and the plunge in oil prices in 2020. Higher oil revenues pushed Iraq's overall fiscal and external balances into a surplus in 2021. The turnaround in oil markets has significantly improved Iraq's economic outlook in the medium term. Iraq's fiscal and socio-economic fragilities underscore the urgency of wide-ranging structural reforms by the new government. Iraq's existing food security challenges have intensified with the recent surge in global commodity prices. To plug the food supply gap, Iraq has become increasing reliant on imports for more than half of its food consumption, which has increased the country's exposure to global food price and supply shocks. Subsidies and direct transfers, including recently new measures announced by Government of Iraq (GoI), partly mitigate the impact of rising global prices in the short term. However, achieving food security calls for coordinated efforts to improve domestic production including through raising the efficiency of irrigation water, reducing and rehabilitating soil degradation, improving land management, and implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation measures including the adoption of climate-smart agriculture
    Note: Iraq
    DOI: 10.1596/37565
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  • 33
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    Consolidating the Recovery : Seizing Green Growth Opportunities (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (62 pages)
    Series Statement: Latin America and Caribbean Semiannual Report
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Climate Smart Agriculture ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Green Growth ; Inflation ; Low Carbon Technologies ; Renewable Energy ; Uncertainity
    Abstract: The Latin America and the Caribbean region is consolidating its recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, but the road ahead poses challenges: The damage inflicted by the pandemic on education and poverty require redress; new variants may appear; rising global inflation presents new policy dilemmas; and the long-standing reform agenda needed to lay the foundations for renewed and inclusive growth remains pending. Further, the global context is evolving rapidly. Over the medium term, the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine will affect the region through unpredictable channels. Over the longer term, increased global alarm over the pace of climate change raises new policy issues. The region's contribution to greenhouse gases is modest and can be reduced, but the impact of climate change on its people and productive sectors will require significant adaptation. The good news is that LAC's unique endowments positions it well to seize emerging green growth opportunities if well-managed. A key message is that improving the region's capability to adapt and innovate needs to be placed at the center of both the growth and greening agendas and can generate synergies between them
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  • 34
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    Enhancing Debt Transparency by Strengthening Public Debt Transaction Disclosure Practices (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Debt Management ; Covid-19 ; Macroeconomic Policy ; Pandemic Impact ; Public Debt Information
    Abstract: Improving debt transparency is critical for promoting debt sustainability and creditworthiness assessments, increasing the accuracy of public debt information, and protecting the interests of a diverse range of stakeholders. The importance of debt transparency, the costs associated with the lack of it, and its benefits, are extensively discussed in recent World Bank literature. One of the key factors that limits debt transparency as it relates to public disclosure and the sharing of public debt-related information, is transaction-level confidentiality and disclosure practices. Challenges to disclosure have become more evident during recent debt distress among borrowing countries, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The discussion in this paper reveals issues that arise from confidentiality and disclosure practices among lenders and borrowers; and highlights how these issues cause information asymmetries and undermine the interests of stakeholders. The paper concludes by proposing concrete and actionable recommendations for the World Bank, IMF and sovereigns
    DOI: 10.1596/37420
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    Energy Sector : MyanmarvInfrastructure Monitoring (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Infrastructure Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Energy ; Energy Policies and Economics ; Energy Sector Regulation ; Energy Sector ; Infrastructure ; Political Instability ; Energy Policies ; Covid-19
    Abstract: Myanmar's energy sector has been severely affected by the dual shocks of the February 2021 coup and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Developments in the energy sector after the coup have undermined nascent energy sector reforms over the last few years, including reforms that led to improved service delivery, restructured electricity tariffs, and increased electricity access. Constraints in human resources resulting from the dismissal of over 4,400 staff in key entities and departments under the Ministry of Electricity and Energy (MoEE) has put power sector operation at risk. Public boycott of electricity payments and rising costs of electricity due to dollar-denominated independent power producers have adversely affected the financial viability of the power sector. The political instability in the aftermath of the coup has led to significant operational and financial burdens on the sector, affecting the sector financial viability and fiscal sustainability. Investor confidence has plummeted amid uncertainty and a worsening investment climate, jeopardizing the implementation of approved power projects, including renewable solar. While the global commodity rally continues, there are serious challenges ahead, including the need for skilled labor to ensure electricity reliability, maintain the security of power infrastructure, and increase electricity revenues
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Myanmar
    DOI: 10.1596/37422
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    Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2022 : Financial Deepening for Stronger Growth and Sustainable Recovery (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Commodity Prices ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Economic Modeling ; Inflation ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Commodity Prices ; Covid-19 ; Economic Modeling ; Growth Driver ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics
    Abstract: Indonesia's economic recovery from the Corornavirus (COVID-19) pandemic comes amidst an increasingly challenging global environment. Indonesia's growth accelerated at the end of 2021 as the country stepped off from a devastating Delta wave in July-August, ending the year with 3.7 percent growth. The momentum carried into the first quarter of 2022 with the economy growing at 5 percent (yoy) and absorbing a short and sharp increase in Omicron-related COVID cases. Growth drivers since end 2021 have rebalanced gradually from exports and public consumption towards private consumption and investment. Since February, the war in Ukraine has disrupted the global economic environment with rising commodity prices and de-risking in global financial markets. The positive terms-of-trade effect has benefited Indonesia in the near-term through higher export and fiscal earnings. But the country is starting to feel the pressures of rising prices and tightening external finance
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Indonesia
    DOI: 10.1596/37584
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    Malaysia Economic Monitor - Catching Up : Inclusive Recovery Growth for Lagging States (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Armed Conflict ; Communicable Diseases ; Conflict and Development ; COVID-19 ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Analysis ; Social Development ; Armed Conflict ; Covid-19 ; Emdes ; Emerging Markets and Developing Economies ; Global Financing Conditions ; Supply Disruptions
    Abstract: Global growth slowed markedly in H1 2022. This was due to COVID-19 resurgences at the turn of the year; protracted supply disruptions; reduced macroeconomic support; and substantial negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine. The conflict, which has sparked the largest commodity price shock in 50 years, has exacerbated the increasingly difficult policy tradeoffs between supporting growth and managing price pressures. It has contributed to tightening in global financial conditions, increased financial market volatility and higher borrowing costs, particularly in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs)
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Malaysia
    DOI: 10.1596/37531
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    South Africa : Financial Sector Assessment (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Economic and Sector Work Reports
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Coronavirus ; Economic Recovery ; Insurance ; Covid-19 ; Pandemic
    Abstract: The South African financial system has weathered the shock of COVID-19 but faces growing risks emanating from a weak macroeconomic outlook. The pandemic crisis hit South Africa hard, with nonresident capital outflows accelerating and the domestic and global slowdown precipitating a6.4 percent GDP contraction in 2020. A brief period of liquidity stress was managed with new central bank facilities and a lowering of liquidity requirements; and banks proved resilient thanks to sound capital and liquidity buffers. Asset management and pension assets saw falling valuations, but redemption pressures quickly dissipated as markets stabilized. The intensification of the sovereign financial system nexus emerging from the crisis poses risks going forward, and a resurgence of the pandemic could deteriorate asset quality. Banks are resilient in the FSAP's baseline; however, amedium-term adverse stress scenario would cause a significant decline in capital although most banks would remain sufficiently capitalized. Under stress, banks could face some liquidity gaps, particularly at very short maturities, highlighting the importance of continued close monitoring. The impact of COVID-19 on insurers has thus far been contained, but prudential rules should be strengthened to ensure the measure of capital is sufficiently robust
    Note: Africa , Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) , South Africa
    DOI: 10.1596/37079
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    Solomon Islands High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19 : Results from Round Two; Data Collection; December 2020 - January 2021, and April 2021 (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: Conflict and Development ; COVID-19 ; Disaster Management ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Reduction ; Coronavirus ; Covid-19 ; Data Collection And Analysis ; National Poverty Rate ; Pandemic ; Post Disaster Needs Assessment
    Abstract: This report presents the findings of the second of five planned rounds of mobilephone surveys, as well as the results of a companion survey funded by UNICEF. Thefirst World Bank High Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) in Solomon Islands on thesocioeconomic implications of the coronavirus pandemic found wide rangingimpacts that deserve to be monitored as long as the pandemic continues
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Solomon Islands
    DOI: 10.1596/37194
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  • 40
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    Grievance Redress Mechanism of the Takaful and Karama Program in the Arab Republic of Egypt (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Access To Finance ; Confidentiality ; COVID-19 ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Social Accountability ; Social Analysis ; Social Development ; Transparency ; Active Listening ; Architecture ; Confidentiality ; Covid-19 ; Delivery Chain ; Grievance Redress Mechanism ; Institutional Arrangements ; Integrity And Impartiality ; Measures ; No-fee ; Non-discrimination ; Processes ; Social Accountability ; Social Protection ; Timely Resolution ; Transparency ; Uptake Channels
    Abstract: Launched in January 2015, the Takaful and Karama (T&K) program is among the Arab Republic of Egypt government's cornerstone social protection mitigation measures. It seeks to alleviate the adverse effects of the country's bold economic reforms aimed at addressing longstanding macroeconomic issues. Implemented by the Ministry of Social Solidarity (MoSS) and co-financed by the government and the World Bank, the T&K program is among Egypt's largest investments in human capital development. This case study summarizes the practices of the T&K program GRM to date, including lessons learned. The experiences and achievements of the T&K GRM in Karama's beneficiary assessment phase are specifically highlighted. Section two explores the GRM as part of a broader social accountability approach; section three summarizes the institutional arrangements for grievance resolution; section four discusses key results and trends regarding grievance handling; and section five concludes with a snapshot of achievements, lessons learned, areas of strength and in need of improvement, and the path forward
    Note: Africa , Africa , Egypt, Arab Republic of
    DOI: 10.1596/37644
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    Sierra Leone Economic Update 2022 : Leveraging SME Financing and Digitization for Inclusive Growth (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Econometrics ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Development ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Armed Conflict ; Covid-19 ; Dfs ; Digital Finance Services ; Real Gross Domestic Product ; Small And Medium Enterprises ; Smes
    Abstract: The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has set back the economy and fiscal balances of Sierra Leone, which are now further impacted by the war in Ukraine. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth turned negative in 2020, while the government's efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit were undermined by the need for emergency spending. Just when the economy began to recover, the war in Ukraine caused new disruption through sharply higher food and fuel prices. Thus, the authorities face both the short-term challenge of coping with these price shocks while recovering from the pandemic, and the medium-term challenge of renewing fiscal consolidation and promoting higher economic growth. Public finances have deteriorated since the onset of COVID-19. Inflationary pressures have accelerated since mid-2021, driven first by the post-pandemic rebound in consumption, and subsequently by global supply chain disruptions since the onset of the Ukraine war, and depreciation pressures on the Leone. Small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) can be engines of economic growth and job creation,under the right circumstances. Currently, in Sierra Leone, SMEs (along with micro-enterprises) provide livelihoods to approximately 70 percent of the population and represent over 90 percent of the domestic private sector. Access to finance for SMEs and digital finance are priorities for the government. Digital financial services (DFS) are not diversified, and mobile money remains the main driver. The payments infrastructure including the RTGS, ACH and securities settlement system needs to be upgraded. Sierra Leone lacks a modern credit reporting system. Key recommendations for greater SME access to finance are presented in this report
    Note: Africa , Africa , Africa Western and Central (AFW) , Sierra Leone , Sub-Saharan Africa , West Africa
    DOI: 10.1596/37651
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    Madagascar Economic Update : Navigating Through the Storm (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Conflict and Development ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Economic Insecurity ; Education Reform ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Food Security ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Water Resources ; 2020 Recession ; Continued Crisis ; Coronavirus ; Covid-19 ; Digital Access ; Education Reform ; Food Insecurity ; Food Prices ; Inflation Pressure ; Low Growth Potential ; Pandemic ; Trade Balance
    Abstract: Development prospects in Madagascar continue to be hampered by the country's low growth potential and exposure to frequent, deep, and persistent crises. Following a recession in 2020 that was about three times deeper than in the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, an economic recovery started in Madagascar in 2021 but was interrupted in 2022 by a sequence of domestic and international shocks. In addition to these new headwinds, the growth potential of the economy has been negatively impacted during the crisis by a retrenchment in private investment, deteriorating human capital and weakening governance. In this context, growth projections were downgraded to 2.6 percent in 2022 and to an average of 4.4 percent in 2023-2024, with the poverty rate now expected to remain close to 80 percent by 2024. This can only happen if the government kickstarts far-reaching reforms supporting private investment and job creation, better access to basic services and infrastructure, and greater resilience to shocks. Several policy priorities are highlighted as particularly urgent in this Economic Update. This report also highlights the importance of boosting public school performance following the continued deterioration in learning outcomes and advocates for a set of reforms reinforcing teachers' selection and evaluation, salary and school grant management, redress mechanism and local community engagement
    Note: Africa , Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) , Madagascar
    DOI: 10.1596/37506
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    Brazil Poverty and Equity Assessment : Looking Ahead of Two Crises (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Equity ; Equity and Development ; Household Income ; Human Capital ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions ; Asset-based Framework ; Covid-19 ; Equity ; Household Income ; Human Capital ; Indigenous Communities ; Physical Assets ; Poverty Reduction ; Role Of Transfers ; Vulnerability And Inclusion
    Abstract: In 2020, Brazil was about to face socioeconomic disruptions of historical proportions. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has broken several undesirable Brazilian records. First, the pandemic wreaked an enormous direct human toll, sickening millions and causing the death of 195,441 Brazilians in 2020 and 619,056 in 2021. Second, the Brazilian economy experienced its worst contraction in recorded history, with real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth in 2020 at -4.7 percent (compared to the previous record of -4.4 percent in 2015). Third, COVID-related closures and other measures led to a massive, unprecedented exit of workers, with an estimated 10 million people leaving the labor force between the third quarter of 2019 and the third quarter of 2020. Employment opportunities were scarce for those who remained in the labor force, with the unemployment rate standing at 14.6 percent in the third quarter of 2020. Many individuals at the bottom of the income distribution work in precarious jobs and lack a resilient source of income, forcing them to rely on public transfers during the pandemic. The significant progress in Brazilian households' welfare in the 2000-2010 decade responded mainly to labor market dynamics. Between December 2003 and December 2014, formal employment grew on average 5 percent annually, outpacing annual GDP growth of 3.5 percent (Campos and Souen 2017). Increases in the minimum wage (Cord, Genoni, and Rodriguez-Castelan 2015) and a surge in skills (including more highly skilled labor among the vulnerable) contributed positively to the increase in welfare. Still, a significant share of Brazilian workers has remained informal or not protected by the National Social Security System (INSS). When economic shocks hit Brazil, the labor market outcomes of low-income individuals are the first to be affected. Thus, income effects for the poorest are strongly correlated with the rollout of social protection cash transfers. The Programa Bolsa Familia (PBF) decreased its coverage in the years following the 2014 crisis when Brazil's poverty rate was increasing. Meanwhile, the widespread coverage of the Auxilio Emergencial program in 2020 contributed to the decrease of national poverty rates. Other income groups can weather economic shocks much better. People in middle of the income distribution maintain their steady pensions, and the richest Brazilian recover quickly thanks to savings, wealth, and accumulated assets that help them to adapt
    Note: Brazil , Latin America , Latin America & Caribbean
    DOI: 10.1596/37657
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    Myanmar Economic Monitor, January 2022 : Contending with Constraints (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; COVID-19 ; Digital Divide ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Coronavirus ; Economic Growth ; Financial Sector ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Monetary Policy ; Digital Disruption ; Fiscal Trends ; Covid-19 ; International Trade ; Internet Access ; Economic Outlook ; Pandemic Impact ; Prices ; Risks
    Abstract: Myanmar's economy continues to be severely tested by the ongoing impacts of the military coup and the surge in COVID-19 cases in 2021. While some real-time indicators have improved in recent months, they remain consistent with a much lower level of economic activity than prior to the February coup. Reported COVID-19 cases have fallen to low levels (and few reported cases of the Omicron variant as of early January 2022), while real time indicators of mobility, manufacturing activity, and exports are showing signs of recovering. On the other hand, indicators of conflict suggest that the security environment has deteriorated in many parts of Myanmar, including in states and regions which have historically been relatively peaceful. This has affected businesses' operations, logistics, confidence, and appetite to invest. After the sharp decline in incomes and employment observed across the economy, available indicators suggest domestic demand remains very weak. At the same time, supply-side constraints persist and some have worsened in recent months. Access to kyat liquidity, credit, and foreign currency remains severely constrained. A sharp exchange rate depreciation in September 2021 has raised import prices across the economy, including of fuel and other critical inputs to production, increasing transport costs. Electricity outages are a growing concern and internet disruptions continue to reduce the reliability of firms' and households' connectivity and ability to access information and connect with markets (see Part III: Digital Disruptions and Economic Impacts)
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Myanmar
    DOI: 10.1596/36889
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    Tunisia Economic Monitor, Winter 2021 : Economic Reforms to Navigate Out of the Crisis (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; COVID-19 ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Sector Development ; Coronavirus ; Debt ; Economic Growth ; Public Debt ; Unemployment ; Covid-19 ; Economic Outlook ; Economic Reform ; Fiscal Trends ; Pandemic Response ; Crowding Out ; Risks ; Trade Deficit ; Central Bank Financing
    Abstract: The Economic Monitor examines four possible factors behind Tunisia's slow recovery. First, the drop in mobility related to the pandemic may have been more harmful in Tunisia. However, mobility in Tunisia has dropped to a similar extent as other countries and it has now returned to pre-pandemic levels following the acceleration in the vaccination campaign since July. If anything, the mobility drop in Tunisia has resulted in a lower reduction in economic activity than in comparator countries as Algeria and Egypt. Second, it could be that the level of public support to the ailing firms and households may have been particularly low. However, at 2.3 percent of GDP, the Covid-19 stimulus package in 2020 was in the same ballpark as other comparators in the region. Third, the structure of the Tunisian economy, particularly its reliance on tourism, may have exposed it to the negative demand shock more than other countries. Indeed hotels, cafe and restaurant and transport are the sectors which have contracted the most since the start of the pandemic. The losses of these sectors explain a significant portion of the negative effects of the crisis in Tunisia, although they do not fully account for such slow recovery
    Note: Middle East and North Africa , Tunisia
    DOI: 10.1596/36861
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    Directions for ReformSouth Sudan Country Economic Memorandum : A Country Economic Memorandum for Recovery and Resilience in South Sudan (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Economic Memorandum
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Armed Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; COVID-19 ; Food Security ; Natural Resources ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Armed Conflict ; Covid-19 ; Food Insecurity ; Natural Capital ; Natural Resources ; Peace Negotiations
    Abstract: South Sudan is at a crossroads in its recovery, reconstruction, and development. Having gained independence in 2011 after two protracted civil wars, the country twice relapsed into conflict: first in 2013 and again in 2016. While the economy began to recover following the 2018 peace deal, progress has stalled amidst a multitude of crises - including the COVID-19 pandemic, climate shocks, and dwindling oil production. At the same time, the broad-based rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine have on balance affected South Sudan adversely. A decade after independence, South Sudan remains caught in a web of fragility and economic stagnation, with weak institutions, recurring cycles of violence, and ubiquitous poverty. Overall, the conflict is estimated to have cost South Sudan an accumulated loss in aggregate GDP of some USD 81 billion during 2012 - 2018, equivalent to USD 11.6 billion per year on average (80 percent of 2010 GDP). Consequently, South Sudan's real GDP per capita in 2018 was estimated at being one third of the counterfactual estimated for a non-conflict scenario. With the fragile peace deal largely holding despite challenges in implementation, the authorities initiated an ambitious reform program aimed at macroeconomic stabilization and modernization of the young country's public financial management systems. This report discusses South Sudan's economic performance since independence, with a focus on leveraging the country's endowments of natural capital - oil and arable land - to support recovery and resilience. Three messages emerge from this report. First, there is a peace dividend in South Sudan. South Sudan's real GDP per capita in 2018 was estimated at one third of the counterfactual estimated for a non-conflict scenario. Thus, maintaining peace can by itself be a strong driver of growth. Second, with better governance and accountability, South Sudan's oil resources can drive transformation. Third, South Sudan's chronic food insecurity could be reversed with targeted investments to improve the resilience of the agricultural sector
    Note: South Sudan
    DOI: 10.1596/37532
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    Georgia Country Economic Memorandum : Charting Georgia's Future: Competitive, Connected, Capable (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Economic Memorandum
    Keywords: CEM ; Country Economic Memorandum ; COVID-19 ; International Economics and Trade ; Pandemic ; War in Ukraine
    Abstract: From the Coronavirus (COVID) pandemic to the war in Ukraine, the world and Georgia are experiencing more uncertainty and accelerating disruption. As a small open economy looking to integrate with the global economy, Georgia must carefully navigate these trends by being prepared for the risks and on the lookout for emerging opportunities. A more capable, competitive and connected Georgia will be better placed to navigate these trendsThis Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) aims to inform the policies that could offset these headwinds. To sustain productivity growth, Georgia needs to facilitate its structural transformation and the corresponding spatial adjustment (Chapters 1 and 2). Furthermore, growth will increasingly need to come from improvements in total factor productivity (TFP) in Georgia's firms (Chapter 3) and advancement in their ability to exploit opportunities in external markets (Chapter 4). Finally, more active and better-skilled labor (Chapter 5) can help offset existing demographic trends and augment productivity. Progress in these areas, supported by higher savings, will make Georgia's economy more competitive, connected, and capable, help sustain robust GDP growth over the long-term and turn Georgia's aspirations into reality
    DOI: 10.1596/38375
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    Fiscal Transparency During the COVID-19 Emergency : Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Serbia (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Corruption ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Corruption ; Covid-19 ; Emergency Responses ; Fiscal Transparency ; Information Access ; Western Balkans
    Abstract: The speed, reach, and magnitude of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic sent a shockwave around the globe that tested the capacity of Public Finance Management (PFM) systems to support governments' responses to crises. Fiscal transparency was not a foremost priority for decisionmakers during the crisis as they sought to put in place emergency measures with imperfect information and under rapidly changing conditions. This report, which complements existing public budgeting assessments that apply internationally recognized PFM frameworks on a regular basis, presents a comparative analysis focused upon experiences with and lessons about fiscal transparency in three countries in the Western Balkans - Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), North Macedonia and Serbia. It includes examples of good practices that were deployed in various countries within the region and beyond during their response to Covid-19. In doing so, it aims to distil lessons and provide recommendations about what could be done better in preparation for and during future emergency events
    Note: Bosnia and Herzegovina , Europe , Europe and Central Asia , North Macedonia (Formerly the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) , Serbia
    DOI: 10.1596/38302
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    Fostering Rwanda Competitiveness and Resilience in the Post-COVID-19 Era (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Economic and Sector Work Reports
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Trade Facilitation ; Trade Policy ; Covid-19 ; International Trade ; Non-tariff Barriers ; Policies ; Tariff Barriers ; Trade Performance
    Abstract: Rwanda achieved rapid export growth in the decade before the pandemic. In addition, Rwanda has expanded business tourism by promoting the meetings, incentives, conferences/conventions, and events/exhibitions industry. Air transport services was another key export, as a growing number of international airlines are serving Rwanda. However, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic depressed goods and especially, services exports in 2020. Sustained growth in trade will be a key driver for achieving the government's goal of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2035. While exports have increased significantly over the past two decades, Rwanda remains a less open country than the middle-income countries the government aspires to match. Regional integration can not only provide the needed economic scale for Rwandan firms to improve their productivity and competitiveness, but can also serve as a vital training ground for learning to export and produce higher-quality goods The aim of this report is to assess policy options to foster international trade, deepen regional integration, and reinforce the government diversification strategy through services. The first part of this report assesses Rwandan trade performances and trade potential in recent years, with a special emphasis on regional trade, trade in services, and the impact of the COVID-19. The second part of the report assesses the main drivers and challenges to international and regional trade in Rwanda including: i) trade policy, with special emphasis on non-tariff barriers and the African Continental Free Trade Agreement; ii) trade facilitation with special emphasis on Rwanda's trade logistic ambitions; iii) supply side trade constraints at the firm-level; and iv) specific trade challenges to trade in service and data exchanges. The third part of the report discusses potential recommendations
    Note: Africa , Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) , Rwanda
    DOI: 10.1596/38321
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    Continued Rebound, but Storms Cloud the Horizon : Policies to Accelerate the Productive Economy for Inclusive Growth (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Credit To Private Sector ; Global Commodity Market Shock ; International Economics and Trade ; Pandemic ; Poverty Reduction ; Promoting Vaccination ; Robust Growth
    Abstract: Kenya's rebound from the pandemic continued in 2022. Driven by broad-based increases in services and industry, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 6.0 percent Year-on-Year (y/y) in the first half (H1) of 2022. However, the agriculture sector contracted by 1.5 percent during thesame period, and with the sector contributing almost one fifth of GDP, its poor performance pulled back GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points. Notwithstanding the strong y/y creases, GDP has seen a marked sequential slowdown since the 2021 third quarter (Q3) as base effect dissipatedand business confidence weakened because of the global commodity market shock, a long regional drought and domestic political uncertainty in the run up to the August 2022 general elections. Business confidence however picked up in the wake of a smooth transition of power following a largely peaceful presidential election. Kenya's growth prospects remain bright; however, emerging shocks are challenging the broad-based rebound. Thebaseline assumes robust growth of credit to private sector, contained COVID-19 infections, and high commodity prices favorable for Kenyan exports to boost Kenya's growth in the medium term. However, the ongoing shocks, including the long drought in arid and semi-arid areas, rising inflation, and tighter global financial conditions, create challenges for Kenya to sustain its recovery
    DOI: 10.1596/38386
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    Cambodia Economic Update : Navigating Global Economic Headwinds (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Domestic Economic Sectors ; Global Economic Headwinds ; Inflation ; International Economics and Trade ; Poor Households ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: While recovering from Coronavirus (COVID-19),Cambodia's economy is now facing global economic headwinds. The current account improved in the first half of 2022 as the trade deficit narrowed. Rising global energy, fertilizer and food prices prompted a surge in inflation. Rising inflation is particularly harmful to poor households. To mitigate impacts of the food and oil price shock, the authorities are planning to introduce additional social assistance measures, while extending the existing COVID19 cash transfer program until end-2022. Promoting the domestic economic sectors, focusing on the travel, tourism, and hospitality industries should help partly offset the deterioration of external demand conditions. And successful facilitation of coherent private sector leadership of the sector should help create a "crowding-in" effect, anchored to comprehensive long-term plans, catalyzed by public seed funding. It is equally important to address supply chain constraints, which include high logistics and transportation costs to boost export
    DOI: 10.1596/38371
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  • 52
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    Overcoming Poverty and Inequality in the Philippines : Past, Present, and Prospects for the Future (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Inequality ; Poverty ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Covid-19 ; Inclusive Recovery ; Inequality ; Policies ; Poverty ; Trends And Drivers
    Abstract: In the past three decades, the Philippines has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty. Driven by high growth rates and structural transformation, the poverty rate fell by two-thirds, from 49.2 percent in 1985 to 16.7 percent in 2018. By 2018, the middle class had expanded to nearly 12 million people and the economically secure population had risen to 44 million. This report is intended to inform public debate and policymaking on inequality in the Philippines. It synthesizes core findings from background analyses of the patterns of inequality and poverty and provides policy pointers. The analysis uses a wealth of data from a variety of sources (detailed in Appendix A). In what follows, section two discusses the poverty and inequality impacts of COVID-19. Section three analyzes what has been driving poverty and inequality over the past three decades. Section four discusses the structural causes of current inequality; and section five examines how they affect recovery patterns. The last section discusses how policy can promote equality and inclusive recovery
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Philippines
    DOI: 10.1596/38346
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  • 53
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    Uganda Economic Update, 19th Edition : Fiscal Sustainability through Deeper Reforms to Public Investment Management (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Covid-19 ; Fiscal Consolidation ; Gaps ; Inflation ; Public Investment Management ; Trade And Supply ; War In Ukraine
    Abstract: New shocks hit the Ugandan economy in 2022, just as it was recovering as the COVID-19 pandemic waned and related mobility restrictions were fully removed. Commodity price surges and disruptions to trade and supply chains because of the war in Ukraine worsened a global economy that was dragging under the weight of new waves of COVID-19 in some regions and unwinding of stimulus policies. The outlook for Uganda is now one of slower GDP growth with increased vulnerabilities, including in household incomes and food security. The authorities face the challenge to maintain a delicate balance between policies required to support and sustain a growth acceleration and ensuring stability otherwise the start-stop recovery as shocks evolve, will make it impossible for Uganda to build back better
    Note: Africa , Africa , Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) , Uganda
    DOI: 10.1596/38263
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  • 54
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    Learners with Disabilities and COVID-19 School Closures : Findings from a Global Survey Conducted by the World Bank's Inclusive Education Initiative (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Education Study
    Keywords: Coronavirus ; Disability ; Distance Learning ; Education ; Education For All ; Educational Institutions and Facilities ; Social Protections and Labor ; COVID-19 ; SCHOOL CLOSURE ; DISTANCE LEARNING ; DISABILITY ; CORONAVIRUS ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; ACCESSIBLE RESOURCES ; INCLUSIVE EDUCATION
    Abstract: At the onset of the coron ...
    DOI: 10.1596/36326
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    Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Municipal Finance (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Public Sector Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Municipal Financial Management ; National Urban Development Policies and Strategies ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Urban Development ; Urban Health ; Coronavirus ; Covid-19 ; Global Pandemic ; Governance ; Municipal Governance
    Abstract: City local governments have been facing multiple challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic to secure adequate financial resources for response and recovery. This report assesses the impact of the pandemic on local governments' financial situations through cross-country analysis and comparison. Three indicative types of local government adjustments are discussed and scenario analysis is used to highlight the risks and uncertainties associated with the pandemic's impact and subsequent economic recovery
    DOI: 10.1596/37205
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    Kazakhstan Economic Update, Summer 2021 : Turning the Tide on the COVID-19 Crisis (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC RECOVERY ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; INEQUALITY ; BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ; MONETARY POLICY ; FISCAL TRENDS ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; RISKS ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; PUBLIC PERCEPTION
    Abstract: Kazakhstan's economy started to recover in the second half of 2020, although real GDP is still lower than pre-COVID-19. After suffering the worst contraction in the past two decades, Kazakhstan's real GDP rebounded in the third quarter of 2020, and growth has extended to the first quarter of 2021. Real GDP in Q1 2021 grew moderately at 1.9 percent in seasonally adjusted terms relative to the Q4 last year. The external environment has generally improved and lifted the value of Kazakhstan's exports by about 5.8 percent in Q1 2021 compared with Q4 2020 in seasonally adjusted terms. In Q1 2021, China experienced a faster-than-expected economic rebound, while the euro area suffered another dip due to the COVID-19 resurgence. This update features findings on factors affecting the slow productivity growth among Kazakh firms, one of the critical development challenges. Productivity matters to sustain long-term growth and improve the standard of living. Findings from firm-level data analysis suggest a muted contribution of firms' upgrading capability (innovation, managerial), poor allocative efficiency, and limited contribution from entry and exit dynamics. The authorities should consider coordinating policies to improve productivity growth by ensuring competition in the product market, reducing barriers for firms to entry in sectors dominated by state-owned enterprises, improving the effectiveness of investment policy and promotion, and boosting firms' capability to innovate. Also, revisiting distortive support programs for firms should be reconsidered to avoid perpetuating inefficiencies in firms
    Note: Europe and Central Asia , Kazakhstan
    DOI: 10.1596/35903
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    Algeria Economic Monitor, Spring 2021 : Accelerating Reforms to Protect the Algerian Economy (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; LABOR MARKET ; PUBLIC FINANCE ; MONETARY POLICY ; FISCAL TRENDS ; BANKING ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; RISKS ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; POVERTY ; INEQUALITY ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; HEALTH SYSTEM REFORM ; HEALTH FINANCING
    Abstract: This Algeria Economic Monitor provides an update on key recent economic developments and policies. It places them in a longer-term and global context and assesses the implications these developments and changes in policies have on the outlook for Algeria. This Monitor's coverageranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Algeria. The report is divided into four chapters. Chapter 1 presents the country's macroeconomic developments in 2020 and early 2021. Chapter 2 presents the short- to medium-term outlook for the Algerian economy. Chapter 3 details the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequality in Algeria based on evidence across the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Finally, Chapter 4 looks at the key challenges in the country's health sector as the COVID-19 pandemic eases. The cut-off date for data and forecasting is June 11, 2021
    Note: Middle East and North Africa , Algeria
    DOI: 10.1596/36014
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    The Gradual Rise and Rapid Decline of the Middle Class in Latin America and the Caribbean (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; SOCIAL GAINS ; VULNERABILITY ; POVERTY ; MIDDLE CLASS ; INEQUALITY ; UPWARD MOBILITY ; GOVERNMENT RESPONSE INDEX ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ; MACRO-MICROSIMULATION MODEL ; INCOME DISTRIBUTION ; POVERTY ESTIMATE
    Abstract: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) reported over 30 million Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and around 960,000 deaths as of May 2021. Official tracking data shows that Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina have the highest number of reported cases throughout LAC, which in turn is the region with among the highest numbers across all developing regions. Moreover, Brazil is the third-worst affected country worldwide, after the United States and India, with approximately 15.4 million infections. Dramatic declines in economic activity are expected throughout the LAC region due to the global pandemic. Unfortunately, many LAC countries entered the crisis with low potential economic growth and high levels of inequality, following the region's recent period of stagnant growth. The 2020 COVID-19 crisis will likely reverse in a short time frame many of the social gains that took decades to materialize in Latin America and the Caribbean. In the past two decades, the region has seen a reduction in the number of people living in poverty by nearly half and an increase in the size of its middle class. Income inequality also decreased, as income growth has been primarily pro-poor in recent years. Despite variations across countries, most have experienced positive welfare gains since the early 2000s. However, the growth deceleration of 2014-2019 coupled with the dramatic fall in activity caused by the COVID-19 crisis will negatively impact living standards and well-being across the region. Poverty projections for 2020 suggest that the number of the poor increased in most LAC countries. Brazil, however, implemented a generous emergency transfer program that benefited almost 67 million people and lifted millions out of poverty. As a result, poverty in the LAC region is expected to decline marginally from 22 percent in 2019 to 21.8 percent in 2020. Had no mitigation measures been implemented, the region may instead have seen 28 million new poor in 2020
    Note: Latin America & Caribbean , Caribbean , Latin America
    DOI: 10.1596/35834
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    Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2021 : Weathering the Surge (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC RECOVERY ; EXPORTS ; UNEMPLOYMENT ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 VACCINATION ; GOVERNMENT SUPPORT ; FISCAL TRENDS ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT ; PRODUCTIVITY ; SERVICES SECTOR COMPETITION
    Abstract: In recent months, there has been a steep increase in the number of daily new cases and, more disturbingly, in the number of deaths. While it took almost one year for Malaysia to record its first 100,000 cases, the increase in the number of new cases between April to May 2021 alone amounted to more than 100,000. Similarly, while it took about one year for cumulative deaths to reach 500, the cumulative number of deaths in the first two weeks of June alone was more than 500. Even more worryingly, the number of brought-in dead (BID) cases also rose sharply; in May 2021, BID cases accounted for nearly one-third of total deaths. The severity of the current wave has raised concerns regarding the overall capacity of the health system. With the number of new cases and death rates continuing to climb at a rapid rate, the health system has been operating at close to its maximum capacity, with most intensive care units (ICUs) running at nearly 100 percent capacity. At the same time, key containment measures, including mass testing and contact tracing, have not been fully or effectively implemented. In addition, the rollout of the country's vaccination program is being affected by delayed vaccine supply and high vaccine hesitancy, although there are some signs that the pace has picked up recently. To curb the spread of the pandemic and to ease the burden on the health system, the government has reimposed the movement control order (MCO). Initially, the terms of the MCO allowed for most economic sectors to continue to operate. However, with the number of cases remaining high and with no signs of abatement, the government subsequently announced a full lockdown, with only key essential services allowed to operate. The Ministry of Health has indicated that it may take between 3-4 months to flatten the curve of the pandemic
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Malaysia
    DOI: 10.1596/35812
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    Tunisia Economic Monitor, Spring 2021 : Navigating Out of the Crisis (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; Digital Divide ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Energy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Oil and Gas ; Poverty Reduction ; COVID-19 ; CORONAVIRUS ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; HOUSEHOLD WELFARE ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; FISCAL POLICY ; MONETARY POLICY ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; RISKS ; DIGITAL ECONOMY ; DIGITAL TRANSITION ; DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
    Abstract: Due to disruptions in international trade and tourism triggered by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, the Tunisian economy contracted by unprecedented levels during 2020. Fortunately, recent data indicates that the economy stabilized during the first quarter of 2021, with quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q) growth no longer in negative territory. In comparison with regional peers, Tunisia experienced a sharper contraction than others, having entered the crisis while already experiencing slow growth, limited fiscal space, and rising debt levels. While the government managed the first phase of the pandemic well from a health standpoint, this early success waned as controls were relaxed later in 2020. A record 13.3 decline in the tradable services sector and a 11.7 percent drop in exports contributed towards the 8.8 percent economic contraction, as weak global demand depressed industrial and tourism exports throughout 2020. As a result, unemployment rose from 14.9 to 17.4 percent, contributing to the wave of protests breaking out around the country on the 10-year anniversary of the Arab Spring. Some of the recent gains made in poverty reduction will be lost because the share of the population vulnerable to falling into poverty increased during 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 on the economy
    Note: Middle East and North Africa , Tunisia
    DOI: 10.1596/36123
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    Tanzania Economic Update, July 2021 : Transforming Tourism - Toward a Sustainable, Resilient, and Inclusive Sector (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Business Environment ; Coronavirus ; Economic Growth ; Economic Recovery ; Environment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Resilience ; Tourism and Ecotourism ; COVID-19 ; MACROECONOMIC POLICY ; POVERTY ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; RISKS ; TOURISM ; INVESTMENT CLIMATE ; BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT ; ECONOMIC RECOVERY ; DIVERSIFICATION ; COMPETITIVENESS ; RESILIENCE ; BLUE ECONOMY ; CORONAVIRUS ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; PANDEMIC IMPACT
    Abstract: The pandemic severely disrupted economic activity in Tanzania, and the World Bank's latest firm-level data suggest that the situation had only modestly improved by the end of 2020. New data sources show that COVID-19 continues to weigh heavily on employment and income. Data for the first quarter of 2021 suggest that recovery remains fragile and uneven across sectors, but economic activity could accelerate in the second half of 2021. The tourism-dependent economy of Zanzibar has been particularly impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. Tanzania's macroeconomic framework remains sound, with low inflation and moderate external and fiscal vulnerabilities
    Note: Africa , Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) , Tanzania
    DOI: 10.1596/36048
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    Social Protection Response to the COVID-19 Crisis in the Dominican Republic (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; SOCIAL SAFETY NETS ; SOCIAL PROTECTION ; EMERGENCY CASH TRANSFER ; POVERTY MITIGATION ; GOVERNMENT AGILITY ; COVERAGE GAPS ; ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION
    Abstract: The Government of the Dominican Republic (DR) adopted a series of economic and social measures to protect households and businesses and prevent employment losses as a response to the Coronavirus disease SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) health and economic crisis. Social protection policies and programs have been used globally as effective mechanisms to respond to the economic crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This policy note aims to document and analyze the design and implementation of the three main cash-transfer programs that the government used to protect households and workers affected by the COVID-19 crisis. The programs that are part of the scope of the note are: (1) stay at home (quedate en casa, QEC), (2) the employee solidarity assistance fund (fondo de asistencia solidaria del empleado, FASE), and (3) the independent worker assistance program (programa de asistencia al trabajador independiente, PA' TI). The analysis of these programs is based on a desk review of administrative and legal documents, media information, program reports, and operational rules. The policy note is organized as follows: first, it provides an overview of the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and identifies the potentially affected population. Second, it provides a description of the design and implementation of the three social protection programs and their expenditures. Finally, it discusses lessons learned, including challenges and opportunities to improve social protection policies, based on an adaptative social protection framework
    Note: Latin America & Caribbean , Dominican Republic
    DOI: 10.1596/35861
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    Dominican Republic Public Expenditure Review (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW ; DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ; SERVICE DELIVERY ; STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES ; PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS ; FISCAL POLICY ; WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION ; SOCIAL PROTECTION ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE
    Abstract: This public expenditure review (PER) for the Dominican Republic (DR) is designed to inform the government's fiscal expenditure policies and advance its economic and social development priorities. The PER was requested by the government in December 2019, but its scope has been extensively revised to reflect the rapid evolution of the Coronavirus disease SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) crisis. This PER finds that institutional fragmentation poses a critical challenge to economic policymaking in the DR. Inadequate coordination between public agencies undermines the effectiveness and efficiency of service delivery and reinforces the monopolistic structure of key economic sectors. These findings are consistent with the analysis presented in the previous PER, completed in 2019, which emphasized the importance of efficiency gains in a context of constrained revenue mobilization and limited borrowing space. Institutional fragmentation aggravates the three most pressing economic policy issues facing the DR: (i) an unsustainable debt trajectory, (ii) slow rates of job creation in the formal sector, and (iii) gaps in both the social protection system and the delivery of basic services
    Note: Latin America & Caribbean , Dominican Republic
    DOI: 10.1596/35856
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    Timor-Leste Economic Report, May 2021 : Charting a New Path (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; FLOODS ; FISCAL TRENDS ; MONETARY POLICY ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; RISKS ; HEALTH SYSTEM ; HEALTH SERVICE DELIVERY ; HEALTH FINANCING
    Abstract: COVID-19 is spreading quickly throughout the country, despite early successes in containing the virus. Meanwhile, flooding and landslides have caused considerable human loss and economic damage. These compounding health and humanitarian emergencies are undermining the economic recovery in 2021, but the recent approval of a revised budget can alleviate the negative impacts. Economic activity has been weakened by the recent COVID-19 outbreak and the impact of Cyclone Seroja. GDP is forecast to grow by 1.8 percent in 2021, which is lower than the 3.1 projected in October 2020. The economy is expected to recover in the medium-term, but structural constraints will remain an impediment to faster growth. Reforms to boost productivity and competitiveness are critical. COVID-19 and recent floods have highlighted and exacerbated underlying weaknesses in Timor-Leste's health system. Disruptions to health and nutrition services arising from these crises may have a multiplier effect on access to care for routine and essential care, setting back the country's progress on health outcomes and human capital development
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Timor-Leste
    DOI: 10.1596/35720
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    Walking the Talk : Reimagining Primary Health Care After COVID-19 (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464817687
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Health Study
    Keywords: PRIMARY HEALTH CARE ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; HEALTH CARE DELIVERY ; HEALTH FINANCING ; ACCOUNTABILITY ; INEQUITY ; HEALTH CARE REFORM
    Abstract: The world has waited long enough for high-performing primary health care (PHC). It's time to deliver. Forty years ago, leaders embraced the promise of health for all through PHC. That vision has inspired generations. But for nearly half a century, countries have struggled to walk the talk on PHC. We have not built health systems anchored in strong PHC where they were needed most. Today, COVID-19 (coronavirus) has brought the reckoning for that shared failure-but also the chance to do the job right at last. The pandemic has shown policy makers and ordinary citizens why health systems matter and what happens when they fail. By doing so, it has also created a once- in-a-generation chance for structural health-system change. Bold reforms now can prepare health systems for future crises and bring goals like universal health coverage (UHC) within reach. PHC holds the key to these transformations. But to fulfill that promise, the walk has to finally match the talk. This report charts an agenda toward reimagined, fit-for-purpose PHC. It asks three questions about health-systems reform built around PHC: "Why?", "What?", and "How?" Since PHC has been around for decades, why write a thick report about it now? The answer is that the characteristics of high-performing PHC are exactly those that are most critical for managing the pressures coming to bear on health systems in the post-COVID world. The challenges include future infectious outbreaks and other emergent threats, but also long-term structural trends that are reshaping the environments in which systems operate in non-crisis times. This report highlights three sets of megatrends that will increasingly affect health systems in the decades ahead: demographic and epidemiological shifts; changes in technology; and citizens' evolving expectations for health care
    DOI: 10.1596/35842
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    Morocco Economic Monitor, June 2021 : Building Momentum for Reform (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 VACCINATION ; ECONOMIC RECOVERY ; FISCAL TRENDS ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; MONETARY POLICY ; PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; CHALLENGES ; INEQUALITY ; DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; LABOR MARKET
    Abstract: Morocco stands out as a country that has seized the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis as an opportunity to launch an ambitious program of transformative reforms. After its initial efforts to mitigate the immediate effects of the pandemic on households and firms, the authorities have launched various policies to correct longstanding inequities and overcome some of the structural bottlenecks that have constrained the performance of the Moroccan economy in the recent past. This reform program has the following pillars: (i) the creation of a Strategic Investment Fund (the Mohammed VI Fund) to support the private sector; (ii) the overhaul of the social protection framework to boost human capital; (iii) the restructuring of Morocco's large network of State Owned Enterprises. In addition, the government has recently unveiled the terms of a new development model that places significant emphasis on human development and gender equity, and on the need to reinvigorate recent efforts to incentivize private entrepreneurship and boost competitiveness. If successfully implemented, these reforms could lead to a stronger and more equitablegrowth path. There are various channels through which the reform impetus described above could increase the growth potential of the Moroccan economy: (i) by increasing market contestability, levelling the playing field, and streamlining the role of the SOE sector in the economy, more firms would be enabled to enter markets, grow and create jobs; (ii) a more dynamic private sector could make a better use of the large stock of physical capital accumulated over past decades, thus increasing the growth dividend of existing infrastructure, which so far has disappointed; (iii) accelerating the pace of human capital formation could enable more Moroccan citizens to realize their productivity potential, which would contribute to raise living standards and accelerate the growth of aggregate output
    Note: Middle East and North Africa , Morocco
    DOI: 10.1596/35763
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    Croatia : Where Are We Since the COVID-19 Outbreak? (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; EMPLOYMENT ; INCOME LOSS ; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
    Abstract: This report focuses on the impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Croatia as of March 2021. The data was collected through the rapid response household surveys representing Croatian households
    Note: Europe and Central Asia , Croatia
    DOI: 10.1596/35744
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    Cambodia Economic Update, June 2021 : Road to Recovery (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC RECOVERY ; MONETARY POLICY ; FISCAL TRENDS ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; PUBLIC DEBT ; SOCIAL ASSISTANCE ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
    Abstract: After contracting by 3.1 percent in 2020, Cambodia's economy has gradually recovered. The recovery is, however, uneven, partial, and volatile in part due to the re-introduction of a domestic lockdown, triggered by recent flare-ups of coronavirus infections. Like many countries in the region, Cambodia has been hit hard by global demand shock and coronavirus-related shutdowns which have had predictably uneven economic impacts across sectors. The agriculture sector has been relatively resilient in the face of the coronavirus shock. In addition, it has been boosted by increased investment, thanks to good prospects of the newly signed Cambodia-China Free Trade Agreement (CCFTA) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).The manufacturing sector sharply contracted last year, but appears to have gradually recovered since, as it has adapted to changing external conditions. The easing of the traditional manufacturing industries, namely garment, footwear, and travel (GFT) goods has been partly offset by the expansion of the newly emerging manufacturing (electrical, electronic and vehicle parts including bicycles) and agroprocessing industries. Parts of the services sector such as accommodation, restaurants and transport continue to be hit hard by slowdown in domestic and international tourism, while wholesale and retail trade has managed to slowly recover, supported by a gradual revival in domestic economic activity
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Cambodia
    DOI: 10.1596/35783
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    Tajikistan Country Economic Update, Summer 2021 : Rebounding Economy, Challenges Remain (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Employment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Immunizations ; Labor Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; COVID-19 ; FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ; LABOR MARKET ; EMPLOYMENT ; POVERTY ; FISCAL TRENDS ; DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ; MONETARY POLICY ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; RISKS ; CORONAVIRUS ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; COVID-19 VACCINATION
    Abstract: After the economic slowdown in 2020, Tajikistan's GDP grew at an annual rate of 8.7 percent in the first half of 2021. According to the Listening-to-Tajikistan (L2T) survey, the social and economic wellbeing of the population severely deteriorated following the outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus), and the country remained far from full recovery at the end of 2020. The strong economic rebound was mainly supported by a continued sharp increase in the export of precious metals, and a pickup in private investment and consumption. The cautious and incremental resumption of air traffic with regional countries allowed migrants to resume traveling abroad and restore the inflow of remittances. Domestic economic activity strengthened as the government gradually relaxed lockdown measures. In the beginning of 2021, Tajikistan adopted a National Deployment and Vaccination Plan (NDVP) and launched it on March 23, 2021, after receiving the first 192,000 doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine from COVAX
    Note: Europe and Central Asia , Tajikistan
    DOI: 10.1596/36126
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    Exploring the Deployment, Perceived Effectiveness, and Monitoring of Remote and Remedial Learning (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Education Study
    Keywords: Coronavirus ; Education ; Educational Institutions and Facilities ; Educational Sciences ; Monitoring and Evaluation ; Teacher Training ; COVID-19 ; SERVICE DELIVERY ; TEACHER TRAINING ; MONITORING AND EVALUATION ; LEARNING LOSS ; COPING POLICIES ; LEARNING RECOVERY ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; CORONAVIRUS ; INCLUSIVE EDUCATION ; REMOTE LEARNING ; TEACHER SUPPORT ; EDUCATION TECHNOLOGY
    Abstract: This study includes three main sections that have been organized in a chronological order within this report: the first one, "What can we learn from education emergency responses in low- and middle-income countries?" analyzes the emergency education responses to the COVID-19 pandemic of over 120 governments from April until May, 2020. The second section, "Is remote learning perceived as effective? An in-depth analysis across five countries" discusses the main national education responses deployed by Brazil, Kenya, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Peru, as well as the perceived effectiveness of these strategies conducted from May until August, 2020. The third section, "What works with remote and remedial strategies? an analysis across 13 countries" builds on key lessons learned during the analysis of the five multi-country experiences and presents global trends of remote learning implemented during school closures and the actions governments adopted to get ready for remedial learning, conducted from August until December 2020. The countries prioritized for the third section are IDA borrowing countries of which six are low-income countries
    DOI: 10.1596/36061
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    South Africa Economic Update, Edition 13 : Building Back Better from COVID-19 with a Special Focus on Jobs (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; LABOR MARKET ; POVERTY ; FISCAL TRENDS ; MONETARY POLICY ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; RISKS ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; EMPLOYMENT ; INEQUALITY ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE
    Abstract: South Africa is set to emerge from the crisis weaker than it had been going into it. However, this Economic Update argues that the reasons for low growth and high unemployment do not lie in the government's crisis response, which has generally been sound. Growth is expected to reach 4 percent in 2021, slowing to 2.1 percent in 2022 and 1.5 by 2023. The global recovery is helping South Africa, especially given strong performance by China and the United States, two of its main trading partners. With deeper economic reforms, South Africa could benefit even more from the high growth in its trading partners. Low-wage workers suffered almost four times more job losses than did high-wage ones. Although a modest job recovery has started, it is at risk from the severe third wave of the pandemic. Self-employment represents only 10 percent of all jobs, as against 30 percent in most upper-middle-income economies, such as Turkey, Mexico, and Brazil. The emerging start-up sector in South Africa could help close this gap
    Note: Africa , Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) , South Africa
    DOI: 10.1596/35987
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    Tajikistan Agrifood Sector and Public Expenditure Review (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: AGRIFOOD SECTOR ; COVID-19 ; CORONAVIRUS ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW ; FISCAL TRENDS ; BUDGET EXECUTION ; EFFICIENCY ; RESOURCE ALLOCATION
    Abstract: Tajikistan's agrifood system has had a steady and growing presence domestically and in the Central Asia region, but still faces many constraints. Agriculture is significantly affected by climate change due to the high vulnerability of its natural environment and the low adaptive capacity of both farmers and the public sector. Coronavirus (COVID-19) disruptions amplified the latter and highlighted the need for more constructive relationships between public policy and the private sector, not only to respond to imminent challenges brought by the current crisis, but also to implement longer-term solutions for resilient development. This report reviews key issues characterizing the agrifood sector in Tajikistan (Chapter 1), assesses how the agrifood sector fared in the face of COVID-19 (Chapter 2), and discusses key findings regarding agricultural public expenditure policies (Chapter 3). Chapter 4 presents recommendations for building a better future
    Note: Europe and Central Asia , Tajikistan
    DOI: 10.1596/35972
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    Thailand Economic Monitor, July 2021 : The Road to Recovery (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC RECOVERY ; POVERTY ; VULNERABILITY ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; SOCIAL ASSISTANCE ; TOURISM
    Abstract: Successive waves of COVID-19 disrupted the Thai economy in the first half of 2021, but their impact was mitigated by recovering global demand and substantial fiscal support. After a second wave of COVID-19 infections began in late 2020, the government strengthened public health and social distancing measures to contain the renewed spread of the virus. The shock of the second wave caused the economy to contract by -2.6 percent, year-on-year (yoy), in Q1 2021, following a 6.1 percent drop in GDP in 2020 which was one of the steepest contractions among Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states. While private investment and manufacturing production recovered to near pre-COVID levels in the first quarter of 2021, weakness in the services and agricultural sector persisted. A third wave of infections that emerged in April 2021 has proven especially severe, and the number of cases surged to over 3,000 per day in May-June 2021. Strict containment measures have reduced mobility and negatively affected consumption and business sentiment. Activity in the tourism sector has remained negligible, and the outlook is clouded by the ongoing impact of COVID-19 across the region, the emergence of new variants, and slow progress on vaccination. However, rebounding goods exports have provided substantial support to the Thai economy, driven by recovering global demand for automotive parts, electronics, machinery, and agricultural products. Cash transfers, public health initiatives, economic recovery programs and other forms of fiscal support have helped shore up private demand while supporting consumption among vulnerable households and attenuating the impact of the crisis on poverty. Going forward, government will need to invest in strengthening the social protection system. Prior to the pandemic social assistance benefits were not very generous and often inadequate to protect the poor. The largest social assistance programs were categorically targeted, and only recently is poverty targeting becoming more prominent. In the years to come it should be a priority to ensure that vulnerable beneficiaries receive adequate support and given the limited fiscal space would also require significant investments in effective targeting. The crisis also further underscores the need to ensure that the social protection system covers the large informal sector in Thailand at all times, not only during crises
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Thailand
    DOI: 10.1596/35945
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    Burkina Faso, 2021 April Economic Update : Protecting the Poor During the Recovery and Beyond (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; RISKS ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ; FISCAL TRENDS ; DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ; POVERTY ; SOCIAL ASSISTANCE ; SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM ; EMERGENCY RESPONSE
    Abstract: According to latest estimates, the economy grew by 2.0 percent in 2020, 4 percentage points less than projected before the onset of COVID-19 (coronavirus). The primary sector grew by 5.2 percent, supported by strong performances of subsistence crops and cotton. The tertiary sector, the largest component of the economy, contracted by 4.9 percent on account of COVID-19 social distancing measures. Inflation returned to positive territory in 2020 and closed the year above 4 percent. The pandemic had a positive impact on the external sector and a negative impact on the fiscal accounts. In 2020, the trade balance improved by 1.0 percentage point of GDP supported by historically high gold prices and low oil prices. The structurally negative services balance improved by 0.3 percentage points of GDP on account of cheaper electricity imports from neighboring countries. The fiscal deficit as a share of GDP reached 5.2 percent in 2020, an increase from 3.2 percent in 2019. Public debt stood at 47.6 percent of GDP by end-2020. Although many impacts of the COVID-19 shock persist, the economy is projected to continue its recovery in 2021. On the demand side, the recovery is supported by consumption and private investment. With security, humanitarian, health, and social challenges persistingthroughout the year, the fiscal deficit is projected to remain elevated at 5.2 percent of GDP. As concessional funding is finite and no other funding options are available, the Government will have to resort to more expensive borrowing in the regional market, which will shift the composition of the public debt stock towards a majority share of domestic debt
    Note: Africa , Africa Western and Central (AFW) , Mali
    DOI: 10.1596/35735
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    Mali Economic Update, Spring 2021 : Protecting the Vulnerable during the Recovery (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Access of Poor to Social Services ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Finance ; COVID-19 ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; POVERTY ; CORONAVIRUS ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PUBLIC FINANCE ; PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ; SPENDING EFFICIENCY ; EDUCATION EXPENDITURE ; HEALTH EXPENDITURE ; FISCAL TRENDS
    Abstract: The twin shocks of the pa ...
    Note: Africa , Africa Western and Central (AFW) , Mali
    DOI: 10.1596/36063
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    Building Forward Better to Ensure Learning for All Children in Iraq : An Education Reform Path (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Education Sector Review
    Keywords: Coronavirus ; Education ; Education Reform ; Educational Institutions and Facilities ; Labor Market ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Social Protections and Labor ; COVID-19 ; HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT ; SKILLS DEVELOPMENT ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; CORONAVIRUS ; EDUCATION REFORM ; SCHOOL FACILITIES ; REMOTE LEARNING ; EDUCATION MANAGEMENT ; NATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING STRATEGY ; LABOR MARKET
    Abstract: Human capital development is imperative to achieve sustainable economic growth in Iraq. At the heart of Iraq's human capital crisis is a learning crisis, which is exacerbated by effects of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on education service delivery. The low levels of human capital development, coupled with limited opportunities to gain job-relevant skills, have translated into worsening economic and social outcomes. To overcome these sources of fragility and spur sustainable human capital driven economic growth, change can only be brought about through a comprehensive reform agenda that addresses the inefficiencies in the education sector and promotes a renewed focus on learning. This Iraq education reform note proposes actionable reforms for key education sector inputs to lead to better learning and skills development
    Note: Middle East and North Africa , Iraq
    DOI: 10.1596/36060
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    The Labor Market and the COVID-19 Outbreak in Vietnam : Impacts and Lessons Learned for Social Protection (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: JOB QUALITY ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; WAGES ; SOCIAL PROTECTION ; SOCIAL ASSISTANCE ; LABOR MARKET ; JOB LOSS
    Abstract: This note summarizes the impacts of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on Vietnam's labor market in 2020 and evaluates the social protection response to identify lessons learned for future crises. Vietnam's labor market was shaken by the outbreak in 2020. But an effective containment strategy and a resilient economy mitigated the impact on Vietnam's labor market, allowing for recovery in the second half of 2020. Vietnam deployed social protection measures to mitigate the impacts on households and firms from disruptions to the labor market that included a package of income support and wage subsidies for households and firms. Fairly strict targeting and eligibility requirements and implementation challenges meant that policy measures were not as effective as hoped. The policy response likely overlooked some impacted groups, and policy makers will likely have struggled to scale up the response in case of a deeper or longer crisis. By revealing these challenges, the COVID-19 policy response has made clear the urgency of reforms to strengthen Vietnam's social protection system for both normal and crisis times
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Vietnam
    DOI: 10.1596/35990
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    Kenya Economic Update, June 2021 : Rising Above the Waves (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; FISCAL TRENDS ; POVERTY ; MONETARY POLICY ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; ECONOMIC RECOVERY ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; LABOR FORCE ; DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ; JOB CREATION
    Abstract: The pandemic has dealt a major blow to the economy, but the government's quick policy responses have helped to cushion the impact, and a partial recovery is underway. In response to the improving conditions, many of the tax and regulatory relief measures extended at the onset of the crisis have been discontinued. The economy is expected to continue to recover and gradually return to growth of above 5 percent. The near-term economic outlook for Kenya, as elsewhere, remains unusually uncertain and contingent on the course of the pandemic
    Note: Africa , Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) , Kenya
    DOI: 10.1596/35946
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    Niger Spring 2021 Economic Update : Maximizing Public Expenditure Efficiency for Rebuilding Better (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; POVERTY ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; MONETARY POLICY ; FISCAL TRENDS ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; FISCAL REFORMS ; DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ; PUBLIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT ; PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ; FISCAL POLICY
    Abstract: The ongoing health and security crisis have partly undermined the benefits from past years of strengthening economic growth. Sustaining an upward trend over the recent years, real growth stood at 5.9 percent in 2019. However, it fell to 3.6 percent in 2020, because of the pandemic and increasingly violent terrorist attacks. Inflation increased to 3.4 percent in 2020, triggered by supply disruptions and speculative behaviors, combined with food shortages. The economy is projected to rebound in 2021, growing at 5.5 percent, with the reopening of the border with Nigeria and the resumption of large investment projects and a normalization of other supply chains. The large import content of these projects will cause the current account deficit to widen further while completion of the main oil pipeline by 2023 should boost revenue and exports over the medium term. However, GDP per capita in 2021 will be only 1 percent higher than in 2019. Addressing inefficient management of a universal fertilizer subsidy program could generate fiscal savings of 0.15 percent of GDP. Until September 2020 fertilizers were sold by Central Agricultural Input and Equipment Supply Agency (CAIMA) and were on average half universally subsidized without targeting specific farmers or crops. The system was characterized by large inefficiencies, including inefficient fertilizer acquisition cost, incapacity to meet the demand and rising operating expenses. After having removed the management of fertilizers from Caima's mandate, it is important that the Government finalize the ongoing work with development partners for a fertilizers reform that allows a better targeting the subsidies and gives a greater role for the private sector in the fertilizers supply and distribution
    Note: Africa , Africa Western and Central (AFW) , Mali
    DOI: 10.1596/35901
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    Central African Republic Economic Update, July 2021 : Investing in Human Capital to Protect the Future (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; MONETARY POLICY ; FISCAL TRENDS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; CORONAVIRUS ; ECONOMIC SHOCK ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; FRAGILITY ; HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT ; HUMAN CAPITAL INDEX ; PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY ; PUBLIC SPENDING ; EARLY CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT ; LABOR MARKET
    Abstract: The economy of the Central African Republic (CAR) decelerated in 2020 compared to 2019. Despite a relatively contained health impact, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on the country's economy, with the disruption in global value chains, low external demand, and domestic containment measures that significantly affected trade, transport, and tourism. Nevertheless, CAR's GDP growth of 0.8 percent has outpaced the average of regional peers (-2.9 percent) and countries affected by fragility, conflict and violence (FCV) (-1.7 percent). On the supply side, the positive dynamic of the agriculture sector prevented the economy from entering a recession, and the forestry and telecommunications sectors were more resilient than expected. On the demand side, private consumption contracted in 2020, reflecting a decline in household income owing to the pandemic. As a result, the extreme poverty rate increased from 70.7 percent in 2019 to 71.4 percent, affecting a total of more than 3.4 million people, in 2020. CAR's current account balance (CAD) deteriorated in 2020. The current account deficit widened from 4.8 percent of GDP in 2019 to 8.7 percent of GDP in 2020, driven by weak external demand and private transfers as well as an increased deficit of the balance on goods. With the COVID-19 pandemic, goods exports declined while non-oil imports were boosted by donor-funded investments. CAR's current account deficit is not expected to be as severe as that of comparator FCV, CEMAC, and Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The capital account balance improved significantly in 2020 due to the rise in external grants, while the financial account surplus shifted into a deficit. The improvement in the capital account has helped narrow the balance of payments deficit and increasing foreign reserves, which reached a level equivalent to about 3.5 months imports at end-2020
    Note: Africa , Africa Western and Central (AFW) , Central African Republic
    DOI: 10.1596/35900
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    Lesotho Social Protection Programs and Systems Review (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: SOCIAL PROTECTION ; SOCIAL ASSISTANCE ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; POVERTY ; VULNERABILITY ; INEQUALITY ; LABOR POLICY
    Abstract: Lesotho, a high-altitude, landlocked country of 2.1 million people encircled by South Africa, has made gains in poverty reduction over the last decade but challenges of shared prosperity remain. The country has made significant investments in developing social protection programs as part of the Government's commitment to protecting vulnerable groups. In sum, while several social assistance programs in Lesotho are found to be effective, whether measured by impact or spending effectiveness, spending on social protection is very high and cost-effectiveness varies
    Note: Africa , Lesotho
    DOI: 10.1596/35910
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    Jordan Economic Monitor, Spring 2021 : Uncertain and Long Trail Ahead (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; LABOR MARKET ; FISCAL TRENDS ; DEBT ; BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ; MONETARY POLICY ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; INEQUALITY ; CYCLICALITY ; WORKER REMITTANCES ; OIL PRICE
    Abstract: Despite recent progress on vaccine developments to combat the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, the global economic recovery remains surrounded by high uncertainty. During the first half of 2020, global economic output declined by an unprecedented level, resulting in a sharp fall in global trade. The latest estimates from the IMF WEO in April 2021 indicate that the global economy contracted by 3.3 percent in 2020. This contraction is substantially deeper than one observed during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 - 08. However, recent trends are pointing toward a strong recovery for global economic activity in the second half of 2021 supported by substantial fiscal and monetary stimuli. Nevertheless, the extent of the protraction is closely linked to vaccine rollout, which is gaining critical mass in some developed economies, but remains uneven across the world. Indeed, the World Bank is projecting global economy to grow by 4 percent in 2021. Nevertheless, this global outlook retains an important country-specific component which depends on the adjustment capacity of each economy as well as the effectiveness of its policy to minimize permanent scarring to the economy as well as pace and scale of domestic vaccine rollout
    Note: Middle East and North Africa , Jordan
    DOI: 10.1596/35849
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    Nigeria Development Update, June 2021 : Resilience through Reforms (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; DEVELOPMENT AGENDA ; OIL PRICES ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; MONETARY POLICY ; CREDIT ; FISCAL TRENDS ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; POVERTY
    Abstract: In 2020, Nigeria experienced its deepest recession in four decades, but growth resumed in the fourth quarter as pandemic restrictions were eased, oil prices recovered, and the authorities implemented policies to counter the economic shock. As a result, in 2020 the Nigerian economy experienced a smaller contraction (-1.8 percent) than had been projected when the pandemic began (-3.2 percent). As part of its response, the government carried out several long-delayed policy reforms, often against vocal opposition. Notably, the government (1) began to harmonize exchange rates; (2) began to eliminate gasoline subsidies; (3) started adjusting electricity tariffs to more cost-reflective levels; (4) cut nonessential spending and redirected resources to COVID-19 (coronavirus) responses at both the federal and the state levels; and (5) enhanced debt management and increased public-sector transparency, especially for oil and gas operations. By creating additional fiscal space and maximizing the impact of the government's limited resources, these measures were critical in protecting the economy against a much deeper recession and in laying the foundation for earlier recovery. However, several critical reforms are as yet incomplete, which threatens Nigeria's nascent recovery. In the baseline scenario, Nigeria's economy is expected to grow by 1.8 percent in 2021. Despite the current favorable external environment, with oil prices recovering and growth in advanced economies, reform slippages would hinder the renewed economic expansion and undermine progress toward Nigeria's development goals. In a risk scenario, in which the government fails to sustain recent macroeconomic and structural reforms, the pace of economic recovery would slow, and GDP growth couldbe just 1.1 percent in 2021
    Note: Africa , Africa Western and Central (AFW) , Nigeria
    DOI: 10.1596/35786
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    Enterprise Surveys Follow-up on COVID-19 : What Businesses Experience, Moldova 2021, Round 3 (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Enterprise Surveys
    Keywords: CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; FIRM SURVEY ; SALES REVENUE ; WORKFORCE ; BUSINESS FINANCE ; GENDER ; EXPECTATIONS ; GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE
    Abstract: The outbreak of Coronavirus (COVID-19) affected individuals and businesses, alike. Understanding the impact of the crisis on businesses, and subsequently how firms are recovering, gives insights into the overall health of the economy as the world tackles the health crisis it is facing. The follow-up surveys to the standard Enterprise Surveys (ES) aim to assess how businesses are adapting and recovering as the first signs of improvement appear in the global health situation. This document summarizes the main findings from the third round of follow-up surveys in Moldova
    Note: Europe and Central Asia , Moldova
    DOI: 10.1596/35958
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    Philippines Financial Sector Assessment (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Keywords: Bank Supervision ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Capital Markets ; Capital Markets and Capital Flows ; Climate Change ; Coronavirus ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Development ; Financial Regulation ; Financial Regulation and Supervision ; Insurance ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Macroprudential Policy ; Risk Assessment ; COVID-19 ; RISK ASSESSMENT ; CLIMATE CHANGE ; FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ; CORONAVIRUS ; MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY ; FINANCIAL REGULATION ; BANK SUPERVISION ; CAPITAL MARKETS ; INSURANCE ; CRISIS MANAGEMENT ; FINANCIAL MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE
    Abstract: During the period June 2019 to October 2020 the World Bank (WB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) teams updated the findings of the FinancialSector Assessment Program (FSAP) conducted in 2010. While the WB and IMF teams were able to visit the Philippines in 2019 in person, the 2020 missions were conducted virtually. This report summarizes the main findings of the mission, and provides policy recommendations
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Philippines
    DOI: 10.1596/36191
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    Gulf Economic Update, August 2021 : COVID-19 Pandemic and the Road to Diversification (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Commodities ; Coronavirus ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Gulf Cooperation Council ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; COVID-19 ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; DIVERSIFICATION ; STRUCTURAL REFORM ; INVESTMENT ; GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL ; OIL PRICE ; CORONAVIRUS ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; HEALTH CRISIS ; COMMODITY PRICE SHOCK
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and the decline in global oil demand and prices dealt the GCC countries a health crisis and a commodity market shock. The GCC's aggregate GDP contracted by 4.8 percent in 2020 from 2019, with the growth outturns ranging from -3.7 in Qatar to an estimated -6.3 percent in Oman. The authorities responded to the pandemic with stringent health measures which helped contain the spread of the disease and saved lives but hurt economic activity. Following a year of economic distress, the GCC economies are expected to return to growth in 2021, buoyed by the global economic recovery, projected at 5.6 percent (upgraded by 1.5 percentage points from the projection in January 2021), the revival of global oil demand, expected at 96.5 billion barrels per day (from 91 billion barrels per day in 2020), and the rebound in international oil prices to an annual forecast average USD 56 per barrel (now outpaced by an actual average USD 61.45 in January-May 2021). The forecast is for an aggregate GCC GDP growth of 2.2 percent in 2021, roughly tracking the turnaround in high-income countries, with the outcomes ranging from 1.2 percent for the UAE to 2.4 percent for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Thereafter, economic growth in the GCC is expected to firm up to an annual average 3.3 percent for 2022-23. With rising oil prices in the first half of 2021, a potential upside scenario for the second half of the year sees improved current account balances being channeled directly to public sector savings. Because of the exposure to global oil demand and personal service industries and the continuing effects of the pandemic, downside risks to the outlook are also high. In this issue of the Gulf Economic Update, the focus is on fiscal revenues and structural reforms including strategic investments in digitalization and telecommunications. Strategic investment in advanced telecommunications technologies, including 5G, is underway in the GCC. But beyond capital spending on infrastructure, the telecommunications sector would benefit greatly from improvements in the legal, regulatory, and competition frameworks under which service providers operate
    Note: Middle East and North Africa , Middle East , Bahrain , Kuwait , Oman , Qatar , Saudi Arabia , United Arab Emirates
    DOI: 10.1596/36041
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    Country Partnership Framework for the Republic of Indonesia for the Period FY21 - FY25 (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Partnership Frameworks
    Keywords: CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; FINANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT ; FINANCIAL ENGAGEMENT ; FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ; GENDER ASSESSMENT ; GOVERNANCE ; IFC DISBURSEMENTS ; INCLUSION ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PARTNERSHIPS ; POVERTY ; PRIVATE CAPITAL MOBILIZATION ; PROCUREMENT ; REGIONAL DISPARITY ; WORLD BANK GROUP PORTFOLIO ; WORLD BANK GROUP STRATEGY
    Abstract: This document presents the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the World Bank Group (WBG) for Indonesia, covering the period FY2021-FY2025. The CPF builds on past successes and blends continuity of the past strategy with change. The past strategy began shifting towards supporting private sector-led growth, based on investments in human capital and underpinned by institutional reforms. This CPF proposes a further shift towards reinforcing fiscal resilience, harnessing the potential of digitalization, integrating climate change considerations, and realizing the contribution of gender to promote a resilient recovery from the pandemic and long-term economic growth. Current conditions require re-focused knowledge and advisory work, inter alia, in public finances, governance, health and social protection as well as a rise in the volume of IBRD lending and IFC financial support tilted towards these re-defined priorities. This document details the CPF program for the first three years of the CPF period in light of unusually great uncertainties, within a five-year overall framework. The first half of the CPF period will be dominated by the need to secure a sustained recovery from the COVID pandemic
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Indonesia
    DOI: 10.1596/35559
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  • 88
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    Sri Lanka Development Update 2021 : Economic and Poverty Impact of COVID-19 (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; MONETARY POLICY ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; FISCAL TRENDS ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; RISKS ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; POVERTY ; EMPLOYMENT ; INEQUALITY ; DIGITAL DIVIDE
    Abstract: Amid the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, Sri Lanka's economy contracted by 3.6 percent in 2020, the worst growth performance on record, as is the case in many countries fighting the pandemic. Swift measures enacted by the government in the second quarter helped contain the first wave of Coronavirus (COVID-19) successfully, but these measures hit sectors like tourism, construction, and transport especially hard, while collapsing global demand impacted the textile industry. Job and earning losses disrupted private consumption and uncertainty impeded investment. As a result, the economy contracted by 16.4 percent (y-o-y) in the second quarter. The economy began to recover in the third quarter as the first wave was brought under control and containment measures were relaxed. The momentum continued in the fourth quarter as the economy was broadly kept open despite a second wave of Coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. The special focus section of this edition discusses the impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on poverty in Sri Lanka as of 2021
    Note: South Asia , Sri Lanka
    DOI: 10.1596/35833
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  • 89
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    Maldives Development Update, April 2021 : A Digital Dawn (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; INFLATION ; POVERTY ; MONETARY POLICY ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; FISCAL TRENDS ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; RISKS ; DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY ; CONNECTIVITY ; DIGITAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP ; SKILLS DEVELOPMENT ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; TOURISM
    Abstract: The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic brought global tourism and travel to a standstill. Thus, although the health impact of the pandemic has been fairly contained in Maldives, its economic consequences have been devastating. To contain the spread of the virus, the country closed its borders for the first time in history, between March 27 and July 15, 2020, leading to a sudden stop in tourism, the main driver of growth, jobs, and revenues. The special focus article of the April 2021 Maldives Development Update explores how Maldives can leverage digital technologies to build back better for green, resilient, and inclusive development in the post-COVID world. It identifies the main bottlenecks to greater digital adoption and provides preliminary recommendations on how the government can address them
    Note: South Asia , Maldives
    DOI: 10.1596/35832
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  • 90
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    Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2021 : Boosting the Recovery (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC RECOVERY ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; INCLUSIVE GROWTH ; MIDDLE CLASS ; FEMALE ENTREPRENEURS ; FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION ; GENDER ; LABOR MARKET ; SOCIAL ASSISTANCE ; FISCAL TRENDS ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
    Abstract: COVID-19 (coronavirus) has taken a heavy economic and human toll globally and in Indonesia. According to official statistics, over 3.8 million people have died from COVID as of May 2021. The global economy experienced one of the most severe recessions, shrinking by 3.5 percent in 2020 compared to 1.7 percent in 2009 during the global financial crisis. The recession in Indonesia (-2.1 percent) was milder than among Emerging Markets and Developing Economies, EMDEs (-4.3 percent excluding China). Small and medium-sized firms and businesses in contact-intensive services sectors were severely affected. About 1.8 million Indonesians became unemployed between February 2020 and 2021 and another 3.2 million people exited the labour force. Three hundred thousand fewer youth entered the labour market. About 2.8 million people have fallen into poverty as of September 2020 with the government's social assistance program mitigating a potentially worse outcome. Indonesia's recovery has been relatively gradual until the first quarter of 2021 but has accelerated more recently. Indonesia's recovery gap - the difference between real GDP and its pre-crisis trend - narrowed from -7.5 to -7.1 percent between Q2 and Q4 2020. By comparison, the average 'recovery gap' among regional and G20 peers shrank from -13.6 to -5.1 percent. The recovery gap remained elevated at -7.9 percent during the first quarter this year. Consumption and investment growth have been subdued due to the still weak labor market and high uncertainty while trade has recovered more strongly. The recovery gap in contact-intensive services sectors, such as transport and accommodation, has also been elevated compared to manufacturing industries due to social distancing and stronger external demand in manufacturing. But retail sales increased by 11 percent between March and April while the manufacturing continued to expand suggesting a stronger rebound during the second quarter
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Indonesia
    DOI: 10.1596/35762
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  • 91
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    Iraq Economic Monitor, Spring 2021 : Seizing the Opportunity for Reforms and Managing Volatility (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH ; FISCAL TRENDS ; MONETARY POLICY ; OIL AND GASS ; PUBLIC FINANCE ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; RISKS ; FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION ; LABOR MARKET ; EMPLOYMENT ; SOCIAL NORMS ; GENDER GAP ; COVID-19 ; CORONAVIRUS ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; MASHREQ GENDER FACILITY
    Abstract: Recognizing the severity of the crisis, the GoI devised a national reform plan (the white paper) that sets out a old blueprint of structural reforms to achieve sustainable medium-term growth through economic diversification and boosting private sector growth and private sector job creation. The GoI has also devised an implementation and governance framework for the white paper in which it proposed a detailed reform matrix and launched a High Reform Council headed by the Prime Minister to accompany the implementation. Actions have already been realized starting with the reforms adopted in the 2021 budget law and other areas including in the business environment and the financial sector. The ultimate success of the reforms though depends on the political will and public support to implement the proposed measures and lead the country out of a long-standing fragility trap. Iraq's economic outlook hinges on global oil markets prospects, the implementation of the white paper reforms, and on the evolution of COVID-19 (coronavirus). The economy is forecast to gradually recover on the back of rising oil prices and rising OPEC+ production quotas. GDP is projected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2021 and 6.3 percent on average over the subsequent two years (Table 1). Non-oil GDP is forecast to recover in 2021, growing by 5.5 percent before converging to historically low potential growth trend in 2022-23. The currency devaluation is estimated to push inflation to 8.5 percent in 2021 due to limited capacity for import substitution. This will present an additional pressure on Iraqi households' wellbeing. The fiscal stance remains expansionary with only limited reform measures being included in the 2021 budget law after an extended deliberation in the Parliament. Higher oil revenues in tandem with the devaluation effect on those receipts are projected to narrow the fiscal deficit to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2021. Financing needs are forecast to remain elevated compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, averaging at 13.7 billion Dollars per year (7.5 percent of GDP) in the outlook period (2021-2023). The 2021 approved budget includes limited reforms such as new consumption taxes and better targeting of PDS transfers which are in line with the GoI white paper. If implemented they could help moderate the fiscal deficit and exchange rate pressures. However, more structural issues such as public wages and pension rigidities remain unaddressed
    Note: Middle East and North Africa , Iraq
    DOI: 10.1596/35625
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  • 92
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    Turkish Cypriot Economy, March 2021 : Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic - A Path to Building Back Better (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: AGRICULTURE ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; CURRENT ACCOUNT ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC RECOVERY ; ENTERPRISE SURVEY ; FISCAL TRENDS ; INEQUALITY ; JOBS ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; POLICY RESPONSE ; PUBLIC SUPPORT
    Abstract: The special topic of this edition of the Macroeconomic Monitoring report focuses on the TC administration's 'public' financial support to the agriculture sector. Due to the Turkish lira depreciation, the recent adverse climate conditions, and exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis, the agriculture sector suffered significantly in 2020. However, the severe impact on the sector was also the result of several long-standing inefficiencies and low productivity. Financial support from the central budget for agriculture comes at a significant fiscal cost to the overall TC economy, while at the same time agricultural productivity has been stagnating. The COVID-19 pandemic has served to exacerbate these existing challenges through disruptions along the food value chain. These problems have affected small-sized farmers the most, given that they are the most vulnerable to income shocks and higher retail prices. Reforming the subsidy system for agriculture could help generate greater fiscal space in the medium term, and also help foster economic diversification and enhance productivity
    Note: Cyprus , Europe and Central Asia
    DOI: 10.1596/35588
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  • 93
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    Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19, December 2020 to January 2021 (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: ACCESS TO FINANCE ; ACCESS TO HEALTH SERVICES ; ACCESS TO WATER ; CHILD DISCIPLINE ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; EMPLOYMENT ; FINANCIAL ANXIETY ; FOOD SECURITY ; HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ; HOUSEHOLD WELFARE ; INCOME LOSS ; INEQUALITY ; INTRA-HOUSEHOLD CONFLICT ; MIGRATION ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; POVERTY ; SCHOOL CLOSURE
    Abstract: This joint report by the World Bank and United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) Papua New Guinea (PNG) presents the findings from two mobile phone surveys conducted in December 2020 and January 2021 in PNG. The World Bank survey, conducted in December 2020, was the second in a series. The UNICEF survey, conducted in January 2021, targeted re-contacting all 2,534 households from the World Bank round 2 survey with children under the age of 15, and achieved a final sample of 2,449. These results were also weighted using information from the demographic and health survey (DHS) to develop representative estimates for households with children under 15, 79.8 percent according to the DHS. The UNICEF survey included sections on household impacts as well as on the children living within the household. Compared to the rest of the country, markedly higher shares of respondents in the NCD noted deteriorations since June in situations related to theft, alcohol, and drug abuse, intimidation by police, violence by police, and domestic abuse, as well as higher declines in overall community trust, which can be an indicator of rising tensions. In addition, there were potential warning signs of the impacts of the prolonged crisis on children, with more than one-third of children exhibiting negative behavioral changes in the previous 15 days - though again a lack of baseline data limits the ability to establish a causal link specifically with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Papua New Guinea
    DOI: 10.1596/35585
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    Supporting Firms in Restructuring and Recovery (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; ECONOMIC SHOCK ; FIRM PERFORMANCE ; MICROENTERPRISES ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; PUBLIC POLICY RESPONSE ; SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES ; TARGETING SOCIAL PROGRAMS
    Abstract: Firms and workers continue to be deeply affected by COVID-19, while the reach of policy support has been limited. Only one in four businesses surveyed across 60 countries has received any type of public support, with the share varying from more than 50 percent in high-income countries to just over 10 percent for low-income economies. The rest of this note is structured as follows. The next section presents the main impacts of COVID-19 on businesses. Section three revisits the organizing framework of the first Supporting Firm Resilience note (Freund and Mora 2020), reaffirming its relevance as the underlying methodology for analysis and guide to policy discussions with client authorities. Section four summarizes the policy responses by authorities around the world. Section five provides some early evidence on the impact of policies as well as recommendations for improving their targeting and effectiveness. Section six maps out the way forward for countries. Section seven concludes and outlines how the WBG can support
    DOI: 10.1596/35551
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  • 95
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    Assessing Country Readiness for COVID-19 Vaccines : First Insights from the Assessment Rollout (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Health Study
    Keywords: CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 VACCINATION ; HEALTH SERVICE DELIVERY ; READINESS ASSESSMENT
    Abstract: The global COVID-19 vaccination campaign, the largest public health initiative ever undertaken, presents challenges unprecedented in scale, speed and specificities, especially in low and middle-income countries. In November 2020, anticipating the availability of safe and effective vaccines for COVID-19, the World Bank together with WHO, UNICEF, the Global Fund, and Gavi rolled out readiness assessments in more than 100 low and middle-income countries. The key insights from the assessments to date present a high-level snapshot of country readiness to deploy COVID-19 vaccines based on initial findings from ongoing assessments in 128 countries
    DOI: 10.1596/35281
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  • 96
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    Thailand Economic Monitor, January 2021 : Restoring Incomes, Recovering Jobs (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: ACCESS TO FINANCE ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC RECOVERY ; EMPLOYMENT ; FISCAL TRENDS ; LABOR MARKET ; LABOR PRODUCTIVITY ; LABOR SUPPLY ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PRIVATE INVESTMENT ; REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP ; RELIEF MEASURE
    Abstract: The Thailand Economic Monitor (TEM) reports on key developments in Thailand's economy over the past six months, situates these changes in the context of global trends and Thailand's longer-term economic trajectory, and updates Thailand's economic and social welfare outlook. Each edition of the TEM also provides an in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues and an analysis of Thailand's medium-term development challenges. The TEM is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial-market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Thailand's evolving economy
    Note: East Asia and Pacific , Thailand
    DOI: 10.1596/35020
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  • 97
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    Croatian Women and COVID-19 Pandemic : The Coronavirus Is Not Gender-Blind (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Women in Development and Gender Study
    Keywords: CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; EMPLOYMENT ; FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION ; GENDER GAP ; INCOME LOSS ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; VULNERABLE POPULATION ; WOMEN'S AGENCY ; WOMEN'S OPPORTUNITIES
    Abstract: High risk that gender inequalities will widen during and after the pandemic is gains in women's and girls' accumulation of human capital, economic empowerment, and voice and agency, may be reversed if no action is taken. Women labor force participation is concentrated in activities that are more sensitive to the crisis. Women are concentrated in sectors where they are more likely to be exposed to the virus. The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis didn't unravel new discrepancies between men and women, it just shone a brighter light on already-existing gaps and issues, all of which can be corrected in the aftermath of the lockdown. It is recommended to improve availability of care which limits women's labor force participation, including alternative forms of childcare
    Note: Croatia , Europe and Central Asia
    DOI: 10.1596/35240
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  • 98
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    Afghanistan Development Update, April 2021 : Setting Course to Recovery (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; FISCAL TRENDS ; LABOR FORCE SURVEY ; LABOR MARKET ; MONETARY POLICY ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; POVERTY ; REAL SECTOR ; RISKS
    Abstract: Afghanistan continues to face daunting challenges and uncertainties. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis imposed a heavy burden on the economy, public finances, and private sector investment in 2020. Urban unemployment and hardship increased, while declining revenues limited the feasible extent of the government's response. With many firms closed and jobs lost, recovery from the impacts of the crisis now depends on re-investment and a recovery in confidence. Restoration of confidence has been hampered, however, by challenging political and security conditions, and uncertainties regarding future international support. Peace talks between the government and the Taliban are making slow progress, while the frequency of Taliban attacks has increased. Economic recovery will depend on a continued strong partnership between the government and its international partners. To help restore private sector confidence and facilitate continued international support, the government needs to demonstrate substantial progress on revenue, anti-corruption, and private sector reforms
    Note: Afghanistan , South Asia
    DOI: 10.1596/35363
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  • 99
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    Country Gender Assessment : Georgia (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Gender Assessment
    Keywords: ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES ; ACCESS TO EDUCATION ; ACCESS TO HEALTH SERVICES ; CHILD MARRIAGE ; CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ; FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION ; FEMALE MORTALITY ; GENDER ; GENDER DISPARITY ; GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; POLITICAL REPRESENTATION ; POVERTY ; REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS ; VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN ; WOMEN ENTREPRENEURS ; WOMEN'S AGENCY ; WOMEN'S VOICE
    Abstract: This Country Gender Assessment (CGA) provides empirical evidence and analyses equality between the women and men of Georgia. Methodologically, the report adopts the Gender Assessment framework proposed by the World Development Report on Gender Equality and Development (WDR 2012) to analyze recent progress and pending challenges in gender equity, across three key dimensions: (a) endowments, (b) economic opportunities, and (c) agency and Voice. Based on this framework, extensive research was conducted to identify available data sources and empirical evidence, on indicators such as poverty, health, education, perceptions, and wellbeing, among others affecting gender equity in Georgia. In addition to its intrinsic value, promoting gender equality is a central priority to reduce poverty, boost shared prosperity, and advance the aspirations of the middle class. Georgia's development challenges entail adjusting and refining the country's growth paradigm, and translating economic growth to more rapid, sustainable poverty reductions (World Bank 2018a). However, sustained growth, poverty reduction, and shared prosperity require that economic gains improve welfare among all communities, households, and individuals (World Bank 2019). Promoting women's economic opportunities, access to endowments, and voice and agency is fundamental in tackling some of Georgia's main policy challenges, including raising labor productivity, integrating with the global economy, and invigorating stagnant rural areas (World Bank 2018a). Moreover, the socioeconomic impacts derived from the COVID-19 pandemic present countries with an inflexion point, to either enhance gender equality and benefit from its long-term benefits, or to risk losing fundamental progress in gender issues, and forego development opportunities in the future
    Note: Europe and Central Asia , Georgia
    DOI: 10.1596/35366
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  • 100
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    Mozambique Economic Update, February 2021 : Setting the Stage for Recovery (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: CORONAVIRUS ; COVID-19 ; ECONOMIC GROWTH ; ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ; EMPLOYMENT ; EXCHANGE RATE ; EXTERNAL SECTOR ; FIRM SALES REVENUE ; FISCAL POLICY ; HOUSEHOLD WELFARE ; INCOME LOSS ; INFLATION ; MONETARY POLICY ; PANDEMIC IMPACT ; PANDEMIC RESPONSE ; POVERTY ; SCHOOL CLOSURE ; URBAN POOR ; UTILITY PRICES ; VULNERABLE POPULATION ; WORKFORCE MEASURE
    Abstract: The global pandemic has taken a heavy toll on Mozambique's economy. In 2020, the country experienced its first economic contraction in nearly three decades. COVID-19 (coronavirus) hit the economy as it was attempting to recover from the slowdown triggered by the hidden debt crisis and the tropical cyclones in 2019. Real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 1.3 percent in 2020, compared to a pre-Covid estimate of 4.3 percent, as external demand declined, domestic lockdown measures disrupted supply chains and depressed domestic demand, and liquified natural gas (LNG) investments were delayed. COVID-19 has caused a sudden income loss for enterprises and households, worsening living conditions, especially for the urban poor largely engaged in the informal sector. According to the National Institute of Statistics, as of June 2020, about 120,000 jobs were lost and 63,000 employment contracts suspended, with women being the most affected. Around 3 percent of the firms affected were forced to cease their activity. Services activities are the hardest hit. The tourism and hospitality industries have particularly suffered a steep decline in revenues. COVID-19 has jeopardized years of hard-won development gains, with about one million people estimated to have slipped into poverty in 2020 (as measured by the international poverty line of 1.90 US Dollars per day). While there is great uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, the economy is expected to gradually recover from 2021 as aggregate demand rebounds and LNG investments and extractive production gain momentum. Despite the expected recovery, the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines will be at the core of a resilient recovery. This Economic Update explores the implications of COVID-19 for the economy, businesses and households. It makes recommendations for moving forward-in the short-term relief phase, as well as over the medium and longer term in order to 'build back better'
    Note: Africa , Africa Eastern and Southern (AFE) , Mozambique
    DOI: 10.1596/35214
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