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  • 2000-2004  (34)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (34)
  • Cambridge, Mass : MIT Press
  • Currencies and Exchange Rates  (18)
  • Income  (17)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Do, Quy-Toan Trade and Financial Development
    Keywords: Comparative Advantage ; Cred Development ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector ; GDP ; Goods ; Income ; Increasing Returns ; Increasing Returns To Scale ; International Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Comparative Advantage ; Cred Development ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector ; GDP ; Goods ; Income ; Increasing Returns ; Increasing Returns To Scale ; International Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Comparative Advantage ; Cred Development ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector ; GDP ; Goods ; Income ; Increasing Returns ; Increasing Returns To Scale ; International Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The differences in financial systems between industrial and developing countries are pronounced. It has been observed, both theoretically and empirically, that the differences in countries' financial systems are a source of comparative advantage in trade. Do and Levchenko point out that to the extent a country's financial development is endogenous, it will in turn be influenced by trade. They build a model in which a country's financial development is an equilibrium outcome of the economy's productive structure: in countries with large financially intensive sectors, financial systems are more developed. When a wealthy and a poor country open to trade, the financially dependent sectors grow in the wealthy country, and so does the financial system. By contrast, as the financially intensive sectors shrink in the poor country, demand for external finance decreases and the domestic financial system deteriorates. The authors test their model using data on financial development for a sample of 77 countries. They find that the main predictions of the model are borne out in the data: trade openness is associated with faster financial development in wealthier countries, and with slower financial development in poorer ones. This paper—a product of the Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to investigate the relation between finance and trade
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (42 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Chen, Shaohua How Have the World's Poorest Fared Since the Early 1980s?
    Keywords: Extreme Poverty ; Food Consumption ; Global Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Size ; Household Survey ; Household Surveys ; Income ; Inequality ; International Poverty Line ; Per Capita Consumption ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Extreme Poverty ; Food Consumption ; Global Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Size ; Household Survey ; Household Surveys ; Income ; Inequality ; International Poverty Line ; Per Capita Consumption ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Extreme Poverty ; Food Consumption ; Global Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Size ; Household Survey ; Household Surveys ; Income ; Inequality ; International Poverty Line ; Per Capita Consumption ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Chen and Ravallion present new estimates of the extent of the developing world's progress against poverty. By the frugal
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ianchovichina, Elena The Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia
    Keywords: Capital ; Capital Markets ; Comparative Advantage ; Competition ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Development Economics ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exchange Rates ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; World Trade Organization ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Comparative Advantage ; Competition ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Development Economics ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exchange Rates ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; World Trade Organization ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Comparative Advantage ; Competition ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Development Economics ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exchange Rates ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession will have major implications for China and present both opportunities and challenges for East Asia. Ianchovichina and Walmsley assess the possible channels through which China's accession to the WTO could affect East Asia and quantify these effects using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. China will be the biggest beneficiary of accession, followed by the industrial and newly industrializing economies (NIEs) in East Asia. But their benefits are small relative to the size of their economies and to the vigorous growth projected to occur in the region over the next 10 years. By contrast, developing countries in East Asia are expected to incur small declines in real GDP and welfare as a result of China's accession, mainly because with the elimination of quotas on Chinese textile and apparel exports to industrial countries China will become a formidable competitor in areas in which these countries have comparative advantage. With WTO accession China will increase its demand for petrochemicals, electronics, machinery, and equipment from Japan and the NIEs, and farm, timber, energy products, and other manufactures from the developing countries in East Asia. New foreign investment is likely to flow into these expanding sectors. The overall impact on foreign investment is likely to be positive in the NIEs, but negative for the less developed East Asian countries as a result of the contraction of these economies' textile and apparel sector. As China becomes a more efficient supplier of services or a more efficient producer of high-end manufactures, its comparative advantage will shift into higher-end products. This is good news for the poor developing economies in East Asia, but it implies that the impact of China's WTO accession on the NIEs may change to include heightened competition in global markets. This paper—a product of the Economic Policy Division, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network—is part of a larger effort in the network to assess the impact of China's WTO accession
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Household Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization
    Keywords: Consumption Behavior ; Distributional Effects ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Food Commodities ; Food Items ; Food Staples ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Survey ; Household Surveys ; Household Welfare ; Income ; Income Shares ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Developmen ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Policy ; Consumption Behavior ; Distributional Effects ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Food Commodities ; Food Items ; Food Staples ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Survey ; Household Surveys ; Household Welfare ; Income ; Income Shares ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Developmen ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Policy ; Consumption Behavior ; Distributional Effects ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Food Commodities ; Food Items ; Food Staples ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Survey ; Household Surveys ; Household Welfare ; Income ; Income Shares ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Developmen ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: Chen and Ravallion use China's national household surveys for rural and urban areas to measure and explain the welfare impacts of the changes in goods and factor prices attributed to WTO accession. Price changes are estimated separately using a general equilibrium model to capture both direct and indirect effects of the initial tariff changes. The welfare impacts are first-order approximations based on a household model incorporating own-production activities and are calibrated to the household-level data imposing minimum aggregation. The authors find negligible impacts on inequality and poverty in the aggregate. However, diverse impacts emerge across household types and regions associated with heterogeneity in consumption behavior and income sources, with possible implications for compensatory policy responses. This paper—a product of the Poverty Team, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the household welfare impacts of economywide policy changes
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (64 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: McNulty, Mary East Asia's Dynamic Development Model and the Republic of Korea's Experiences
    Keywords: Capital ; Competition ; Criteria ; Cultural Policy ; Culture & Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; E-Business ; Economic Development ; Economic Progress ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Thought ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Industry ; Influence ; Inheritance ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Technology Industry ; Capital ; Competition ; Criteria ; Cultural Policy ; Culture & Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; E-Business ; Economic Development ; Economic Progress ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Thought ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Industry ; Influence ; Inheritance ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Technology Industry ; Capital ; Competition ; Criteria ; Cultural Policy ; Culture & Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; E-Business ; Economic Development ; Economic Progress ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Thought ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Industry ; Influence ; Inheritance ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Technology Industry
    Abstract: No region has been more dynamic in recent years than East Asia. Despite its successful economic development, evaluations of the East Asian development model have often been capricious, shifting from "miracle" to "cronyism." How can we explain East Asia's ups and downs consistently? To respond to this challenge, it is necessary to study the progress of East Asian development and to trace the influence of Asian cultural values. This study mainly focuses on cultural aspects of economic progress and analyzes East Asia's philosophical and historical backgrounds to explain the dynamic process. East Asians believe that balance between opposite but complementary forces, Yin and Yang, will ensure social stability and progress. Through repeated rebalancing to maintain harmony, the society comes to maturity. In traditional East Asian societies, a balance was maintained between Confucianism (Yang) and Taoism, Buddhism, and other philosophies (Yin). In modern societies, the challenge is to balance traditional systems (Yang) and Western style capitalism (Yin). This East Asian development model explains the Republic of Korea's rise, fall, and recovery. Korea was a poor country until the early 1960s, during the time when spiritualism (Yang) dominated. From the 1960s through the 1980s, Korea achieved rapid growth by finding a new balance and moving toward materialism (Yin) from spiritualism (Yang). But the failure to maintain a harmonious balance between cooperatism and collectivism (Yang) and individualism (Yin) led to major weaknesses in labor and financial markets that contributed significantly to the financial crisis in 1997. As Korea arrived at a new balance by instituting reform programs, the venture-oriented information and communication technology (ICT) industry blossomed and led to a rapid economic recovery. Since 2000, domestic financial scandals and political corruption have emerged as new social issues. Korea's next challenge is to find a new harmonization between moralism (Yang) and legalism (Yin). This paper—a product of the Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics—is part of a larger effort in the Bank to examine institutional and cultural foundations of development across regions and countries
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ianchovichina, Elena Long-Run Impacts of China's WTO Accession on Farm-Nonfarm Income Inequality and Rural Poverty
    Keywords: Agricultural Policy ; Agriculture ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Farm Households ; Farm Incomes ; Farm Products ; Farm Sector ; Farm Work ; Farmers ; Food Insecurity ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Income ; Income Inequality ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Livestock and Animal Husbandry ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poor ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Knowledge ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; World Trade Organization ; Agricultural Policy ; Agriculture ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Farm Households ; Farm Incomes ; Farm Products ; Farm Sector ; Farm Work ; Farmers ; Food Insecurity ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Income ; Income Inequality ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Livestock and Animal Husbandry ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poor ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Knowledge ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; World Trade Organization ; Agricultural Policy ; Agriculture ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Farm Households ; Farm Incomes ; Farm Products ; Farm Sector ; Farm Work ; Farmers ; Food Insecurity ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Income ; Income Inequality ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Livestock and Animal Husbandry ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poor ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Knowledge ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: Many fear China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will impoverish its rural people by way of greater import competition in its agricultural markets. Anderson, Huang, and Ianchovichina explore that possibility bearing in mind that, even if producer prices of some (land-intensive) farm products fall, prices of other (labor-intensive) farm products could rise. Also, the removal of restrictions on exports of textiles and clothing could boost town and village enterprises, so demand for unskilled labor for nonfarm work in rural areas may grow even if demand for farm labor in aggregate falls. New estimates, from the global economywide numerical simulation model known as GTAP, of the likely changes in agricultural and other product prices as a result of WTO accession are drawn on to examine empirically the factor reward implications of China's WTO accession. The results suggest farm-nonfarm and Western-Eastern income inequality may well rise in China but rural-urban income inequality need not. The authors conclude with some policy suggestions for alleviating any pockets of farm household poverty that may emerge as a result of WTO accession. This paper—a product of the Economic Policy Division, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network—is part of a larger effort in the network to assess the impact of China's WTO accession
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will Economic Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization
    Keywords: Base Year ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reform ; World Trade Organization ; Base Year ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reform ; World Trade Organization ; Base Year ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reform ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: Ianchovichina and Martin present estimates of the impact of accession by China and Chinese Taipei to the World Trade Organization. China is estimated to be the biggest beneficiary, followed by Chinese Taipei and their major trading partners. Accession will boost the labor-intensive manufacturing sectors in China, especially the textiles and apparel sector that will benefit directly from the removal of quotas on textiles and apparel exports to North America and Western Europe. Consequently, developing economies competing with China in third markets may suffer relatively small losses. China has already benefited from the reforms undertaken between 1995 and 2001 (US
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (54 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Walle, de van Dominique The Static and Dynamic Incidence of Vietnam's Public Safety Net
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Horizontal Equity ; Household Transfers ; Household Welfare ; Income ; Living Standards ; Natural Disasters ; Poor ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Alleviation ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Safety Nets and Transfers ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Horizontal Equity ; Household Transfers ; Household Welfare ; Income ; Living Standards ; Natural Disasters ; Poor ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Alleviation ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Safety Nets and Transfers ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Horizontal Equity ; Household Transfers ; Household Welfare ; Income ; Living Standards ; Natural Disasters ; Poor ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Alleviation ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Safety Nets and Transfers ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Vietnam's social welfare programs do not adequately protect and promote the poor. Increased spending, with better coverage and targeting, could help poor and vulnerable households. How does Vietnam's public safety net affect outcomes for the poor? Although social welfare programs in Vietnam are centrally mandated, they are locally implemented according to local norms and local poverty standards and often rely heavily on local financing. Van de Walle examines the coverage, incidence, and horizontal equity of the programs that can be identified in the data from the Vietnam Living Standards Survey. She looks at the role of location in determining whether the poor are assisted nationally. And she explores dynamic incidence between 1993 and 1998 and the degree to which programs performed a safety net function. The author's analysis shows that coverage and payments to households are low and have had a negligible impact on poverty. In principle, better targeting could improve the impact of current outlays. The analysis also shows that the system was ineffective in protecting households that were vulnerable to shocks. Finally, the results suggest that although there is a greater concentration of poverty-related programs and greater household participation in poorer communes, the system spends more (absolutely and relatively) on the poor in richer communes. This paper—a product of Public Services, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to improve the delivery and effectiveness of social protection programs. The author may be contacted at dvandewalleworldbank.org
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schiff, Maurice Trade Policy and Labor Services
    Keywords: Ban ; Benefits ; Choice ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Implications ; Economic Relations ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Taxes ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Ban ; Benefits ; Choice ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Implications ; Economic Relations ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Taxes ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Ban ; Benefits ; Choice ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Implications ; Economic Relations ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Taxes ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration
    Abstract: Schiff considers the policy options of the West Bank and Gaza with respect to trade and the export of labor services. He concludes that: • Nondiscriminatory trade policy is unambiguously superior to a free trade agreement with Israel. • The West Bank and Gaza should pursue a nondiscriminatory trade policy with all its neighbors, but only on the condition that the trade policy be open, transparent, and enforced by a credible lock-in mechanism. Otherwise, a customs union with Israel may be preferable. • The Palestinian Authority should establish a system of fee-based permits for Palestinians working in Israel. • The Palestinian Authority should consider allowing Jordanians access to the West Bank and Gaza labor market. This paper—a product of Trade, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze trade and regional integration policies in the Middle East. The author may be contacted at mschiffworldbank.org
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (58 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ferreira, Francisco Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder
    Keywords: Absolute Poverty ; Counterfactual ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Household Income ; Household Per Capital Income ; Household Survey ; Household Surveys ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Absolute Poverty ; Counterfactual ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Household Income ; Household Per Capital Income ; Household Survey ; Household Surveys ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Absolute Poverty ; Counterfactual ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Household Income ; Household Per Capital Income ; Household Survey ; Household Surveys ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Bourguignon, Ferreira, and Leite develop a microeconometric method to account for differences across distributions of household income. Going beyond the determination of earnings in labor markets, they also estimate statistical models for occupational choice and for conditional distributions of education, fertility, and nonlabor incomes. The authors import combinations of estimated parameters from these models to simulate counterfactual income distributions. This allows them to decompose differences between functionals of two income distributions (such as inequality or poverty measures) into shares because of differences in the structure of labor market returns (price effects), differences in the occupational structure, and differences in the underlying distribution of assets (endowment effects). The authors apply the method to the differences between the Brazilian income distribution and those of Mexico and the United States, and find that most of Brazil's excess income inequality is due to underlying inequalities in the distribution of two key endowments: access to education and to sources of nonlabor income, mainly pensions. This paper is a product of the Research Advisory Staff. The authors may be contacted at fbourguignonworldbank.org, fferreira@econ.puc-rio.br or phil@econ.puc-rio.br
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cox, Donald Private Interhousehold Transfers in Vietnam in the Early and Late 1990s
    Keywords: Communities & Human Settlements ; Crowding Out ; Economic Growth ; Farm Productivity ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Labor ; Household Head ; Household Income ; Household Welfare ; Human Capital ; Human Capital Investment ; Income ; Income Redistribution ; Labor Policies ; Land and Real Estate Development ; Municipal Housing and Land ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Real Estate Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Crowding Out ; Economic Growth ; Farm Productivity ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Labor ; Household Head ; Household Income ; Household Welfare ; Human Capital ; Human Capital Investment ; Income ; Income Redistribution ; Labor Policies ; Land and Real Estate Development ; Municipal Housing and Land ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Real Estate Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Crowding Out ; Economic Growth ; Farm Productivity ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Labor ; Household Head ; Household Income ; Household Welfare ; Human Capital ; Human Capital Investment ; Income ; Income Redistribution ; Labor Policies ; Land and Real Estate Development ; Municipal Housing and Land ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Real Estate Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Cox uses date from the 1992-93 and 1997-98 Vietnam Living Standards Survey (VLSS) to describe patterns of money transfers between households. Rapid economic growth during the 1990s did little to diminish the importance of private transfers in Vietnam. Private transfers are large and widespread in both surveys, and are much larger than public transfers. Private transfers appear to function like means-tested public transfers, flowing from better-off to worse-off households and providing old age support in retirement. Panel evidence suggests some hysteresis in private transfer patterns, but many households also changed from recipients to givers and vice versa between surveys. Changes in private transfers appear responsive to changes in household pre-transfer income, demographic changes, and life-course events. Transfer inflows rise upon retirement and widowhood, for example, and are positively associated with increases in health expenditures. It also appears that private transfer inflows increased for households affected by Typhoon Linda, which devastated Vietnam's southernmost provinces in late 1997. This paper is a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Economic Growth and Household Welfare: Policy Lessons from Vietnam. The author may be contacted at donald.coxbc.edu
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Is India's Economic Growth Leaving the Poor Behind?
    Keywords: 1958-2000 ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Armut ; Teilstaat ; Armutsbekämpfung ; Indien ; Absolute Poverty ; Economic Growth ; Global Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Human Capital ; Impact On Poverty ; Incidence of Poverty ; Income ; Inequality ; International Poverty Line ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Absolute Poverty ; Economic Growth ; Global Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Human Capital ; Impact On Poverty ; Incidence of Poverty ; Income ; Inequality ; International Poverty Line ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Absolute Poverty ; Economic Growth ; Global Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Human Capital ; Impact On Poverty ; Incidence of Poverty ; Income ; Inequality ; International Poverty Line ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: There has been much debate about how much India's poor have shared in the economic growth unleashed by economic reforms in the 1990s. Datt and Ravallion argue that India has probably maintained its 1980s rate of poverty reduction in the 1990s. However, there is considerable diversity in performance across states. This holds some important clues for understanding why economic growth has not done more for India's poor. India's economic growth in the 1990s has not been occurring in the states where it would have the most impact on poverty nationally. If not for the sectoral and geographic imbalance of growth, the national rate of growth would have generated a rate of poverty reduction that was double India's historical trend rate. States with relatively low levels of initial rural development and human capital development were not well-suited to reduce poverty in response to economic growth. The study's results are consistent with the view that achieving higher aggregate economic growth is only one element of an effective strategy for poverty reduction in India. The sectoral and geographic composition of growth is also important, as is the need to redress existing inequalities in human resource development and between rural and urban areas. This paper—a product of the Poverty Team, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the department to better understand the relationship between economic growth and poverty. The authors may be contacted at gdattworldbank.org or mravallion@worldbank.org
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Hoekman, Bernard Economic Development and the World Trade Organization After Doha
    Keywords: Benchmarks ; Benefits ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Development Agencies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Generalized System of Preferences ; Goods ; Income ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regulatory Policy ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Trade and Services ; Benchmarks ; Benefits ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Development Agencies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Generalized System of Preferences ; Goods ; Income ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regulatory Policy ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Trade and Services ; Benchmarks ; Benefits ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Development Agencies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Generalized System of Preferences ; Goods ; Income ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regulatory Policy ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Trade and Services
    Abstract: Hoekman analyzes what actions could be taken in the context of the World Trade Organization's Doha negotiations to assist countries in reaping benefits from deeper trade integration. He discusses the policy agenda that confronts many developing countries and identifies a number of focal points that could be used both as targets and as benchmarks to increase the likelihood that WTO negotiations will support development. To achieve these targets, Hoekman proposes a number of negotiating modalities for both goods and services-related market access issues, as well as rule-making in regulatory areas. Throughout the analysis, the author refers to the work of J. Michael Finger, whose numerous writings in this area have not only greatly influenced the thinking of policymakers and researchers on the interaction between trade policy, economic development, and the GATT/WTO trading system, but also provides a model for how to pursue effective policy research. This paper--a product of Trade, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the development aspects of WTO rules. The author may be contacted at bhoekmanworldbank.org
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  • 14
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (52 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Rich and Powerful?
    Keywords: Anthropology ; Bank ; Contingency ; Culture & Development ; Demand ; Disposable Income ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Energy ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Social Development ; Household Income ; Household Incomes ; Income ; Income Increases ; Inequality ; Infrastructure Economics ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Inter ; Interest ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Windpower ; Anthropology ; Bank ; Contingency ; Culture & Development ; Demand ; Disposable Income ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Energy ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Social Development ; Household Income ; Household Incomes ; Income ; Income Increases ; Inequality ; Infrastructure Economics ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Inter ; Interest ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Windpower ; Anthropology ; Bank ; Contingency ; Culture & Development ; Demand ; Disposable Income ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Energy ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Social Development ; Household Income ; Household Incomes ; Income ; Income Increases ; Inequality ; Infrastructure Economics ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Inter ; Interest ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Windpower
    Abstract: Does "empowerment" come hand-in-hand with higher economic welfare? In theory, higher income is likely to raise both power and welfare, but heterogeneity in other characteristics and household formation can either strengthen or weaken the relationship. Survey data on Russian adults indicate that higher individual and household incomes raise both self-rated power and welfare. The individual income effect is primarily direct, rather than through higher household income. There are diminishing returns to income, though income inequality emerges as only a minor factor reducing either aggregate power or welfare. At given income, the identified covariates have strikingly similar effects on power and welfare. There are some notable differences between men and women in perceived power. This paper—a product of the Poverty Team, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to explore broader measures of well-being. The authors may be contacted at mlokshinworldbank.org or mravallion@worldbank.org
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (60 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Wallsten, Scott Universal(ly Bad) Service
    Keywords: Benefits ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Competition ; Competition Policy ; Consumers ; Costs ; Development ; Development Strategies ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Income ; Income Levels ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monopolies ; Monopoly ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Benefits ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Competition ; Competition Policy ; Consumers ; Costs ; Development ; Development Strategies ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Income ; Income Levels ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monopolies ; Monopoly ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Benefits ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Competition ; Competition Policy ; Consumers ; Costs ; Development ; Development Strategies ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Income ; Income Levels ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monopolies ; Monopoly ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Supply and Sanitation
    Abstract: Until recently, utility services (telecommunications, power, water, and gas) throughout the world were provided by large, usually state-owned, monopolies. However, encouraged by technological change, regulatory innovation, and pressure from international organizations, many developing countries are privatizing state-owned companies and introducing competition. Some observers worry that even if reforms improve efficiency, they might compromise an important public policy goal—ensuring "universal access" for low-income and rural households. Clarke and Wallsten review the motivation for universal service, methods used to try to achieve it under monopoly service provision, how reforms might affect these approaches, and the theoretical and empirical evidence of the impact of reform on these consumers. Next, using household data from around the world, they investigate empirically the historical performance of public monopolies in meeting universal service obligations and the impact of reform. The results show the massive failure of state monopolies to provide service to poor and rural households everywhere except Eastern Europe. Moreover, while the data are limited, the evidence suggests that reforms have not harmed poor and rural consumers, and in many cases have improved their access to utility services. Nevertheless, because competition undermines traditional methods of funding universal service objectives (cross-subsidies), the authors also review mechanisms that could finance these objectives without compromising the benefits of reforms. This paper—a product of Regulation and Competition Policy, Development Research Group—is a background paper for the Policy Research Report on The Regulation of Infrastructure. The authors may be contacted at gclarkeworldbank.org or swallsten@worldbank.org
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Pizzati, Lodovico Labor Market Implications of Switching the Currency Peg in a General Equilibrium Model for Lithuania
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Board ; Currency Board Arrangement ; Currency Peg ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Domestic Currency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange-Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; General Equilibrium ; General Equilibrium Model ; Imports ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Board ; Currency Board Arrangement ; Currency Peg ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Domestic Currency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange-Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; General Equilibrium ; General Equilibrium Model ; Imports ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Board ; Currency Board Arrangement ; Currency Peg ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Domestic Currency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange-Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; General Equilibrium ; General Equilibrium Model ; Imports ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: On February 2, 2002, Lithuania switched its currency anchor from the dollar to the euro. While pegging to the dollar (since April 1994) has proven successful throughout the transition years, the recent decision to peg to the euro was motivated by the increasing trade relations with European economies. Pizzati does not argue which peg is more appropriate, but he analyzes the implications of changing the exchange rate regime for different sectors and labor groups. While pegging to the euro entails more stability for the export sector, Lithuania is still dependent on dollar-based imports of primary goods from the Commonwealth of Independent States, more so than other Baltic countries or Central European economies. Pizzati uses a multisector general equilibrium model to compare the effects of dollar-euro exchange rate movements under these alternative pegs. Overall, simulation results suggest that while a euro-peg will provide more stability to GDP and employment, it will also imply more volatility in prices, suggesting that under the new peg macroeconomic policy should be more concerned with inflationary pressures than before. From a sector-specific perspective, pegging to the euro will provide a more stable demand for unskilled-intensive manufacturing and commercial services. But other sectors, such as agriculture, will still face the same vulnerability to exchange rate movements. This suggests that additional policy measures may be needed to compensate sector-specific divergences. This paper—a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to address European Union integration issues in transition economies. Please contact Lodovico Pizzati, room H4-214, telephone 202-473-2259, fax 202-614-0683, email address lpizzatiworldbank.org
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  • 17
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (20 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cuevas, A. Mario Demand for Imports in Venezuela
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Demand ; Domestic Economic Activity ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Endogenous Variables ; Environment ; Exchange Rate Increases ; Exchange Rate Level ; Exogenous Variable ; External Balance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Rate ; Imbalances ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Demand ; Domestic Economic Activity ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Endogenous Variables ; Environment ; Exchange Rate Increases ; Exchange Rate Level ; Exogenous Variable ; External Balance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Rate ; Imbalances ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Demand ; Domestic Economic Activity ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Endogenous Variables ; Environment ; Exchange Rate Increases ; Exchange Rate Level ; Exogenous Variable ; External Balance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Rate ; Imbalances ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974–2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5–year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. This paper—a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevasworldbank.org
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (28 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cuevas, A. Mario Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela
    Keywords: Business Cycles ; Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Econometrics ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Environment ; Exogenous Variables ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Potential ; Growth Rate ; Industry ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Oil and Gas Industry ; Private Sector Development ; Business Cycles ; Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Econometrics ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Environment ; Exogenous Variables ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Potential ; Growth Rate ; Industry ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Oil and Gas Industry ; Private Sector Development ; Business Cycles ; Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Econometrics ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Environment ; Exogenous Variables ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Potential ; Growth Rate ; Industry ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Oil and Gas Industry ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of the trend component. Cuevas finds that there is a strong association at the trend and cycle frequencies between real GDP and the real price of oil. This association is also robust in the presence of key economic policy variables. From 1970–80, when the underlying annual rate of increase of the real price of oil was 12 percent, the underlying annual rate of increase of potential GDP in Venezuela was 2.6 percent. By contrast, from 1981–2000 when the underlying rate of increase of the real price of oil was –5 percent, the underlying growth rate of potential GDP fell 1.5 percent. However, the strength of association between the underlying growth of oil prices and real GDP has fallen considerably since the early 1980s, suggesting that oil cannot be relied on as an engine for future growth in Venezuela. This paper—a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevasworldbank.org
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  • 19
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (24 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Servén, Luis Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Servén examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country-time series data set. He builds a GARCH-based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative impact on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The impact of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems. This paper—a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to assess the effects of macroeconomic volatility. The author may be contacted at lservenworldbank.org
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (52 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Wang, Zhi Implicit Pension Debt, Transition Cost, Options, and Impact of China's Pension Reform
    Keywords: Average Wage ; Bank ; Contribution ; Current Pension ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Situation ; Income ; Income Tax ; Individual Account ; Labor Force ; Ownership ; Pensions and Retirement Systems ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Average Wage ; Bank ; Contribution ; Current Pension ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Situation ; Income ; Income Tax ; Individual Account ; Labor Force ; Ownership ; Pensions and Retirement Systems ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Average Wage ; Bank ; Contribution ; Current Pension ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Situation ; Income ; Income Tax ; Individual Account ; Labor Force ; Ownership ; Pensions and Retirement Systems ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: China's population is aging rapidly: the old-age dependency ratio will rise from 11 percent in 1999 to 25 percent in 2030 and 36 percent in 2050. Currently, three workers support one retiree; without reform, the system dependency ratio will climb to 69 percent in 2030 and 79 percent in 2050. The pension system has been in deficit, with an implicit pension debt in 2000 as high as 71 percent of GDP. The lack of an effective, sustainable pension system is a serious obstacle to Chinese economic reform. The main problems with China's pension system—the heavy pension burdens of state enterprises and the aging of the population—have deepened in recent years. Using a new computable general equilibrium model that differentiates between three types of enterprise ownership and 22 groups in the labor force, Wang, Xu, Wang, and Zhai estimate the effects of pension reform in China, comparing various options for financing the transition cost. They examine the impact that various reform options would have on the system's sustainability, on overall economic growth, and on income distribution. The results are promising. The current pay-as-you-go system, with a notional individual account, remains unchanged in the first scenario examined. Simulations show this system to be unsustainable. Expanding coverage under this system would improve financial viability in the short run but weaken it in the long run. Other scenarios assume that the transition cost will be financed by various taxes and that a new, fully funded individual account will be established in 2001. The authors compare the impact of a corporate tax, a value-added tax, a personal income tax, and a consumption tax. They estimate the annual transition cost to be about 0.6 percent of GDP between 2000 and 2010, declining to 0.3 percent by 2050. Using a personal income tax to finance the transition cost would best promote economic growth and reduce income inequality. Levying a social security tax and injecting fiscal resources to finance the transition costs would help make the reformed public pillar sustainable. To finance a benefit of 20 percent of the average wage, a contribution rate of only 10 percent–12.5 percent would be enough to balance the basic pension pillar. Gradually increasing the retirement age would further reduce the contribution rate. This paper—a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute—was presented at the conference Developing through Globalization: China's Opportunities and Challenges in the New Century (Shanghai, China, July 5–7, 2000). The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project "Efficiency and Distribution Effects of China's Social Security Reform" (RPO 683-52). The authors may be contacted at ywang2worldbank.org or zwang@ers.usda.gov
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ianchovichina, Elena Trade Liberalization in China's Accession to the World Trade Organization
    Keywords: Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: (June 2001) - China's forthcoming access to the World Trade Organization involves reform in many sectors, both domestic and trade-related. The starting point for reform is a partially reformed economy with relatively high import duties, in which export sectors benefit from liberal duty exemptions on inputs. Both China and its major trading partners will gain from access—with China gaining most (perhaps half of the estimated
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  • 22
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Jack Public Policy toward Nongovernmental Organizations in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Bank ; Civil Society ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Governance ; Government ; Income ; Intervention ; Labor Policies ; Learning ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microfinance ; NGO ; Organizations ; Outcomes ; Participation ; Policies ; Policy ; Poverty ; Poverty Alleviation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Programs ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Social Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Bank ; Civil Society ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Governance ; Government ; Income ; Intervention ; Labor Policies ; Learning ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microfinance ; NGO ; Organizations ; Outcomes ; Participation ; Policies ; Policy ; Poverty ; Poverty Alleviation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Programs ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Social Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Bank ; Civil Society ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Governance ; Government ; Income ; Intervention ; Labor Policies ; Learning ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microfinance ; NGO ; Organizations ; Outcomes ; Participation ; Policies ; Policy ; Poverty ; Poverty Alleviation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Programs ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Social Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: July 2001 - If a developing country government is not good at providing public services such as health care, education, and social protection, would NGOs be better at doing so? What advantages do NGOs have over for-profit providers of publicly funded services? And considering the importance of donor funding, which is better for delivering such services, an international NGO or a grassroots NGO? Jack presents two descriptive models of nongovernmental organizations and poses normative questions about public policy toward NGOs. In situations in which optimal government intervention in a distorted or inequitable economy employs an NGO-like body, he considers which kinds of NGO might be used. First, in many developing countries NGOs participate in the delivery of what are essentially private goods—in particular, health care and education. In an economy without NGOs, there may be good redistributive and efficiency reasons for the government to provide these goods in kind. But if direct government provision of such services is ineffective or inefficient, when is contracting out to an NGO-like institution preferable to using a traditional for-profit firm? (Another way to frame this is to ask: What is the optimal taxation and regulation of private providers of publicly financed services?) NGOs also provide useful real and financial links with external donors. They are used to provide services the government favors and donors are willing to fund. In this model, the service provider is chosen to yield the best outcome for both government and donor. In this context, Jack compares an international NGO and a grassroots organization. It may be more efficient to transfer donor funds through an international NGO than through a local NGO, but when donor-government cooperation fails, a project implemented by an international NGO is effectively killed. If a project implemented by a local organization can limp along, this otherwise less efficient organization might be preferred. This paper—a product of Public Service Delivery, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the role of NGOs in delivering basic public services. The author may be contacted at wgjgeorgetown.edu
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (28 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ferri, Giovanni The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions
    Keywords: Balance Sheet ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Distress ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Risks ; Good ; Interest ; Interest Income ; Investors ; Loan ; Loans ; Loss Of Confidence ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Political Economy ; Portfolio ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulations ; Public Institution Analysis and Assessment ; Public Sector Development ; Reserves ; Return ; Return On Assets ; Balance Sheet ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Distress ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Risks ; Good ; Interest ; Interest Income ; Investors ; Loan ; Loans ; Loss Of Confidence ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Political Economy ; Portfolio ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulations ; Public Institution Analysis and Assessment ; Public Sector Development ; Reserves ; Return ; Return On Assets ; Balance Sheet ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Distress ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Risks ; Good ; Interest ; Interest Income ; Investors ; Loan ; Loans ; Loss Of Confidence ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Political Economy ; Portfolio ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulations ; Public Institution Analysis and Assessment ; Public Sector Development ; Reserves ; Return ; Return On Assets
    Abstract: In the East Asian crisis, connections - with industrial groups or influential families - increased the probability of distress for financial institutions. Connections also made closure more, not less, likely, suggesting that the closure processes themselves were transparent. But larger institutions, although more likely to be distressed, were less likely to be closed, suggesting a too big to fail policy. - Politics and regulatory capture can play an important role in financial institutions' distress. East Asia's financial crisis featured many distressed and closed financial intermediaries in an environment with many links between government, politicians, supervisors, and financial institutions. This makes the East Asian financial crisis a good event for studying how such connections affect the resolution of financial institutions' distress. Bongini, Claessens, and Ferri investigate distress and closure decisions for 186 banks and 97 nonbank financial institutions in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. They find that after July 1997, 42 percent of the institutions experienced distress (were closed, merged, or recapitalized, or had their operations temporarily suspended). By July 1999, 13 percent of all institutions in existence in July 1997 had been closed. Using financial data for 1996, the authors find that: · Traditional CAMEL-type variables - returns on assets, loan growth, and the ratio of loan loss reserves to capital, of net interest income to total income, and of loans to borrowings - help predict subsequent distress and closure. · None of the foreign-controlled institutions was closed, and foreign portfolio ownership lowered an institution's probability of distress. · Connections - with industrial groups or influential families - increased the probability of distress, suggesting that supervisors had granted forbearance from regulations. Connections also made closure more, not less, likely - suggesting that the closure processes themselves were transparent. · But larger institutions, although more likely to be distressed, were less likely to be closed, while (smaller) nonbank financial institutions were more likely to be closed. This suggests a too big to fail policy. · These policies, together with the fact that resolution processes were late and not necessarily comprehensive, may have added to the overall uncertainty and loss of confidence in the East Asian countries, aggravating the financial crisis. This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Group, Financial Sector Vice Presidency - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the causes and resolution of financial distress. The authors may be contacted at pbonginimi.unicatt.it, cclaessens@worldbank.org, or gferri@worldbank.org
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  • 24
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Panagariya, Arvind Evaluating the Case for Export Subsidies
    Keywords: Adverse Selection ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Competitiveness ; Cred Export ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Performance ; Export Subsidies ; Export Subsidy ; Exports ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Trade ; Free Trade ; Interest ; Interests ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Moral Hazard ; Perfect Competition ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rent ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes ; Trade Policy ; Adverse Selection ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Competitiveness ; Cred Export ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Performance ; Export Subsidies ; Export Subsidy ; Exports ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Trade ; Free Trade ; Interest ; Interests ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Moral Hazard ; Perfect Competition ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rent ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes ; Trade Policy ; Adverse Selection ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Competitiveness ; Cred Export ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Performance ; Export Subsidies ; Export Subsidy ; Exports ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Trade ; Free Trade ; Interest ; Interests ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Moral Hazard ; Perfect Competition ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rent ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: January 2000 - With import-substitution policies discredited, many have argued for interventions on behalf of export interests. But aren't arguments for export subsidies as flawed as arguments for import substitution? Now that import-substitution policies have failed and been discredited, there has been a shift in favor of interventions on behalf of export interests. Panagariya argues that close scrutiny reveals these arguments to be as flawed as the old arguments for import substitution. Among other things, Panagariya concludes that: · Under perfect competition, a country trying to retaliate against a trading partner's export subsidies by instituting its own export subsidies will only hurt itself. · The argument that export subsidies may be useful for neutralizing import tariffs is spurious. In most practical situations, this is not possible. Removal of tariffs is a far superior policy. · In principle a case can be made for protecting infant export industries in the presence of externalities. But the empirical relevance of externalities remains as illusory for export industries as it was for import-substituting industries. · Adverse selection and moral hazard can lead to the thinning of the market for credit insurance but that is not a case for government intervention. · India's experience shows export subsidies to have little impact on exports. Brazil and Mexico's experience shows export subsidies to be a costly instrument of export diversification. · Those who argue that pro-export interventions were important in East Asia have not provided convincing evidence of a causal relationship between the interventions and growth. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to explore conceptual and practical issues in the export policies of developing countries. The author may be contacted at panagariecon.umd.edu
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  • 25
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mehrez, Gil Transparency, Liberalization, and Banking Crises
    Keywords: Bank Lending ; Banking Crises ; Banking Crisis ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Equity ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Fiscal Policy ; Information On Borrowers ; International Investments ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Lack Of Transparency ; Lenders ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oligopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Stock ; Stock Market ; Transparency ; Bank Lending ; Banking Crises ; Banking Crisis ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Equity ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Fiscal Policy ; Information On Borrowers ; International Investments ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Lack Of Transparency ; Lenders ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oligopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Stock ; Stock Market ; Transparency ; Bank Lending ; Banking Crises ; Banking Crisis ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Equity ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Fiscal Policy ; Information On Borrowers ; International Investments ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Lack Of Transparency ; Lenders ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oligopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Stock ; Stock Market ; Transparency
    Abstract: Lack of transparency increases the probability of a banking crisis following financial liberalization. In a country where government policy is not transparent, banks may tend to increase credit above the optimal level. - Mehrez and Kaufmann investigate how transparency affects the probability of a financial crisis. They construct a model in which banks cannot distinguish between aggregate shocks and government policy, on the one hand, and firms' quality, on the other. Banks may therefore overestimate firms' returns and increase credit above the level that would be optimal given the firms' returns. Once banks discover their large exposure, they are likely to roll over loans rather than declare their losses. This delays the crisis but increases its magnitude. The empirical evidence, based on data for 56 countries in 1977-97, supports this theoretical model. The authors find that lack of transparency increases the probability of a crisis following financial liberalization. This implies that countries should focus on increasing transparency of economic activity and government policy, as well as increasing transparency in the financial sector, particularly during a period of transition such as financial liberalization. This paper - a product of Governance, Regulation, and Finance, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to research governance and transparency and apply the findings in learning and operational programs. (For details, visit www.worldbank.org/wbi/gac.) The authors may be contacted at gmehrezworldbank.org or dkaufmann@worldbank.org
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  • 26
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (20 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Denizer, Cevdet Household Savings in Transition Economies
    Keywords: Bank ; Consumer ; Debt Markets ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Future Income ; Household Expenditure ; Household Savings ; Income ; Incomes ; Lifetime ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Economies ; Poverty Reduction ; Precautionary Savings ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Purchases ; Rapid Growth ; Retail Cred Savings Behavior ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Savings Rates ; Social Welfare ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Bank ; Consumer ; Debt Markets ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Future Income ; Household Expenditure ; Household Savings ; Income ; Incomes ; Lifetime ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Economies ; Poverty Reduction ; Precautionary Savings ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Purchases ; Rapid Growth ; Retail Cred Savings Behavior ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Savings Rates ; Social Welfare ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Bank ; Consumer ; Debt Markets ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Future Income ; Household Expenditure ; Household Savings ; Income ; Incomes ; Lifetime ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Economies ; Poverty Reduction ; Precautionary Savings ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Purchases ; Rapid Growth ; Retail Cred Savings Behavior ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Savings Rates ; Social Welfare ; Unemployment ; Wages
    Abstract: In Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland, the higher the relative household income is, the higher the savings rate is. But, surprisingly, savings rates appear to be unaffected by either sector of employment (public or private) or form of employment. Savings rates are significantly higher for households that do not own their own homes or that own few of the standard consumer durables - possibly because, with no retail credit or mortgage markets, households must save to purchase houses and durables. - During the transition from central planning to market economies now under way in Eastern Europe, output levels first collapsed by 40 to 50 percent in most countries, then staged a modest recovery in the last two years. Longer-term revival of growth requires a resumption of investment and thus, realistically, of domestic savings. To explore the determinants of household savings rates in transition economies, Denizer, Wolf, and Ying studied matching household surveys for three Central European economies: Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland. They find that savings rates strongly increase with relative income, suggesting that increasing income inequality may play a role in determining savings rates. Savings rates are significantly higher for households that do not own their homes or that own few of the standard consumer durables - possibly because, with no retail credit or mortgage markets, households must save to purchase houses and durables. The influence of demographic factors broadly matches earlier findings for developing countries. Perhaps surprisingly, variables associated with the household's position in the transition process - including either sector of employment (public or private) or form of employment - do not play a significant role in determining savings rates. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to understand determinants of savings, at both the household and the aggregate level
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schmukler, Sergio Global Transmission of Interest Rates
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Regime ; Currency Regimes ; Currency Risks ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rates ; Independent Monetary Policy ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; International Monetary Economics ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Independence ; Monetary Policy ; Nominal Anchor ; Private Sector Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Regime ; Currency Regimes ; Currency Risks ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rates ; Independent Monetary Policy ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; International Monetary Economics ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Independence ; Monetary Policy ; Nominal Anchor ; Private Sector Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Regime ; Currency Regimes ; Currency Risks ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rates ; Independent Monetary Policy ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; International Monetary Economics ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Independence ; Monetary Policy ; Nominal Anchor ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: August 2000 - Hikes in U.S. interest rates in 1999-2000 have started to spill over to other economies' interest rates, which in many countries have risen to reflect the higher U.S. rates. Are countries with flexible exchange rates better able to isolate their domestic interest rates from this type of negative international shock? Less and less so, as economies become more integrated. Frankel, Schmukler, and Servén empirically study the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates and how that sensitivity is affected by a country's choice of exchange rate regime. To establish the empirical regularities, they use a reduced-form empirical approach to compute both panel and single-country estimates of interest rate sensitivity for a large sample of developing and industrial economies between 1970 and 1999. When using the full sample, they find that: · Interest rates are typically lower in economies with fixed exchange rates than in those with flexible exchange rates. · More rigid currency regimes tend to exhibit higher transmission than more flexible regimes. In many cases in the 1990s, however, the authors cannot reject full transmission (a slope coefficient equal to 1), even for several countries with floating regimes. The data suggest an upward time trend in the degree to which domestic interest rates are sensitive to international capital movements and developing economies' increased financial integration with the rest of the world. As a result, country-specific estimates for the 1990s reveal few cases of less-than-full transmission of international interest rates to domestic rates, regardless of the currency regime. Country-specific results suggest that only large industrial countries can (or choose to) benefit from independent monetary policy. During the 1990s, interest rates in European countries were fully sensitive to German interest rates but insensitive to U.S. interest rates. This paper-a joint product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group, and the Chief Economist Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the Bank to understand the functioning of alternative currency arrangements. The authors may be contacted at jeffrey_frankelharvard.edu, sschmukler@worldbank.org, or lserven@worldbank.org
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (64 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Glewwe, Paul Who Gained from Vietnam's Boom in the 1990s?
    Keywords: Collective Farms ; Consumption Expenditures ; Economic Growth ; Farm Production ; Farm Self-Employment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Household Income ; Household Surveys ; Household Welfare ; Income ; Inequality ; Insurance ; Poor ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural ; Rural Areas ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Savings ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Technical Assistance ; Welfare Indicators ; Collective Farms ; Consumption Expenditures ; Economic Growth ; Farm Production ; Farm Self-Employment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Household Income ; Household Surveys ; Household Welfare ; Income ; Inequality ; Insurance ; Poor ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural ; Rural Areas ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Savings ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Technical Assistance ; Welfare Indicators ; Collective Farms ; Consumption Expenditures ; Economic Growth ; Farm Production ; Farm Self-Employment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Household Income ; Household Surveys ; Household Welfare ; Income ; Inequality ; Insurance ; Poor ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural ; Rural Areas ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Savings ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Technical Assistance ; Welfare Indicators
    Abstract: January 2000 - Vietnam's gains in poverty reduction between 1992 and 1998 were striking, and the country's impressive growth has been fairly broad-based. Households that have benefited most are well-educated, urban, white-collar households, while agricultural workers, ethnic minorities, and those residing in poorer regions have progressed least. Glewwe, Gragnolati, and Zaman assess the extent to which Vietnam's rapid economic growth in the 1990s was accompanied by reductions in poverty. They also investigate factors that contribute to certain households benefiting more than others. Using information from two household surveys, the Vietnam Living Standards Surveys (VNLSS) for 1992-93 and 1997-98, they show that Vietnam's gains in poverty reduction were striking during this period and that the country's impressive growth has been fairly broad-based. After discussing descriptive statistics for both years, the authors examine factors contributing to poverty reduction using both simple decomposition analysis and a multinomial logit model. The results show that: · Returns to education increased significantly during this period, particularly for higher levels of education. · Location significantly affected a household's probability of escaping poverty during this period. Urban households enjoyed a greater reduction in poverty than did rural households, and households residing in the Red River Delta and the southeast were also better able to take advantage of new opportunities. · White-collar households benefited most, and agricultural laborers the least. However, Vietnam cannot afford to be complacent, as nearly half its rural population lives below the poverty line, poverty rates among ethnic minorities remain very high, and natural calamities are a serious impediment to poverty reduction. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the dynamics of poverty. The authors may be contacted at pglewwedept.agecon.umn.edu, mgragnolati@worldbank.org, or hzaman@worldbank.org
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  • 29
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Honohan, Patrick Controlling the Fiscal Costs of Banking Crises
    Keywords: Bank ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking System ; Banking Systems ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Guarantees ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Gambling ; Governments ; Inflation ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Real Sector ; Regulatory Forbearance ; Strategies ; Systemic Banking Crises ; Taxation ; Bank ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking System ; Banking Systems ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Guarantees ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Gambling ; Governments ; Inflation ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Real Sector ; Regulatory Forbearance ; Strategies ; Systemic Banking Crises ; Taxation ; Bank ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking System ; Banking Systems ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Guarantees ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Gambling ; Governments ; Inflation ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Real Sector ; Regulatory Forbearance ; Strategies ; Systemic Banking Crises ; Taxation
    Abstract: September 2000 - Certain measures add greatly to the fiscal cost of banking crises: unlimited deposit guarantees, open-ended liquidity support, repeated recapitalization, debtor bail-outs, and regulatory forbearance. The findings in this paper tilt the balance in favor of a strict rather than an accommodating approach to crisis resolution. In recent decades, a majority of countries have experienced a systemic banking crisis requiring a major-and expensive-overhaul of their banking system. Not only do banking crises hit the budget with outlays that must be absorbed by higher taxes (or spending cuts), but they are costly in terms of forgone economic output. Many different policy recommendations have been made for limiting the cost of crises, but there has been little systematic effort to see which recommendations work in practice. Honohan and Klingebiel try to quantify the extent to which fiscal outlays incurred in resolving banking distress can be attributed to crisis management measures of a particular kind adopted by the government in the early years of the crisis. They find evidence that certain crisis management strategies appear to add greatly to fiscal costs: unlimited deposit guarantees, open-ended liquidity support, repeated recapitalization, debtor bail-outs, and regulatory forbearance. Their findings clearly tilt the balance in favor of a strict rather than an accommodating approach to crisis resolution. At the very least, regulatory authorities who choose an accommodating or gradualist approach to an emerging crisis must be sure they have some other way to control risk-taking. This paper-a product of Finance, Development Research Group, and Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department-is part of a larger effort in the Bank to examine the effects of financial sector regulation. The authors may be contacted at phonohanworldbank.org or dklingebiel@worldbank.org
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Azam, Jean-Paul Rent-Sharing, Hold-Up, and Manufacturing Wages in Côte d'Ivoire
    Keywords: Bargaining ; Bargaining Power ; Competitive Model ; Contracts ; Economic Theory and Research ; Effects ; Efficiency ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; High Wages ; Human Capital ; Income ; Labor ; Labor Costs ; Labor Market ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Prices ; Social Protections and Labor ; Bargaining ; Bargaining Power ; Competitive Model ; Contracts ; Economic Theory and Research ; Effects ; Efficiency ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; High Wages ; Human Capital ; Income ; Labor ; Labor Costs ; Labor Market ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Prices ; Social Protections and Labor ; Bargaining ; Bargaining Power ; Competitive Model ; Contracts ; Economic Theory and Research ; Effects ; Efficiency ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; High Wages ; Human Capital ; Income ; Labor ; Labor Costs ; Labor Market ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Prices ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: May 2001 - Labor costs in Francophone Africa are considered high by the standards of low-income countries, at least in the formal sector. Workers appear to have some bargaining power and, in Côte d'Ivoire, can force renegotiation of labor contracts in response to new investments. Labor costs in Francophone Africa are considered high by the standards of low-income countries, at least in the formal sector. Are they a brake on industrialization or the result of successful enterprise development? Are they imposed on firms by powerful unions or government regulations, or a by-product of good firm performance? Azam and Ris empirically analyze what determines manufacturing wages in Côte d'Ivoire, using an unbalanced panel of individual wages that allows them to control for observable firm-specific effects. They test the rent-sharing and hold-up theories of wage determination, as well as some aspects of efficiency-wage theories. Their results lean in favor of both rent-sharing and hold-up, suggesting that workers have some bargaining power and that in Côte d'Ivoire workers can force renegotiation of labor contracts in response to new investments. This paper—a product of Public Services for Human Development, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the impact of labor market policies and institutions on economic performance. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project "The Impact of Labor Market Policies and Institutions on Economic Performance" (RPO 680-96). Jean-Paul Azam may be contacted at azamuniv-tlsel.fr
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  • 31
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (58 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Klingebiel, Daniela The Use of Asset Management Companies in the Resolution of Banking Crises
    Keywords: Asset Management ; Asset Management Companies ; Bad Debt ; Bank ; Bank Restructuring ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking Distress ; Banking System ; Bankruptcy ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Enterprises ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Governments ; Impaired Assets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Laws ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Systemic Banking Crises ; Asset Management ; Asset Management Companies ; Bad Debt ; Bank ; Bank Restructuring ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking Distress ; Banking System ; Bankruptcy ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Enterprises ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Governments ; Impaired Assets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Laws ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Systemic Banking Crises ; Asset Management ; Asset Management Companies ; Bad Debt ; Bank ; Bank Restructuring ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking Distress ; Banking System ; Bankruptcy ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Enterprises ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Governments ; Impaired Assets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Laws ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Systemic Banking Crises
    Abstract: Asset management companies have been used to address the overhang of bad debt in a country's financial system - by expediting corporate restructuring or rapidly disposing of corporate assets. A study of seven cases suggests that such companies tend to be ineffective at corporate restructuring and are good at disposing of assets only when they're used to meet fairly narrow objectives in the presence of certain factors: an easily liquefiable asset (such as real estate), mostly professional management, political independence, adequate bankruptcy and foreclosure laws, skilled resources, appropriate funding, good information and management systems, and transparent operations and processes. - Asset management companies have been used to address the overhang of bad debt in the financial system. There are two main types of asset management company: those set up to expedite corporate restructuring and those established for rapid disposal of assets. A review of seven asset management companies reveals a mixed record. In two of three cases, asset management companies for corporate restructuring did not achieve their narrow goal of expediting bank or corporate restructuring, suggesting that they are not good vehicles for expediting corporate restructuring. Only a Swedish asset management company successfully managed its portfolio, acting sometimes as lead agent in restructuring - and helped by the fact that the assets acquired had mostly to do with real estate, not manufacturing, which is harder to restructure, and represented a small fraction of the banking system's assets, which made it easier for the company to remain independent of political pressures and to sell assets back to the private sector. Asset management companies used to dispose of assets rapidly fared somewhat better. Two of four agencies (in Spain and the United States) achieved their objectives, suggesting that asset management companies can be used effectively for narrowly defined purposes of resolving insolvent and inviable financial institutions and selling off their assets. Achieving these objectives required an easily liquefiable asset - real estate - mostly professional management, political independence, adequate bankruptcy and foreclosure laws, appropriate funding, skilled resources, good information and management systems, and transparent operations and processes. The other two agencies (in Mexico and the Philippines) were doomed from the start, as governments transferred to them politically motivated loans or fraudulent assets, which were difficult for a government agency susceptible to political pressure and lacking independence to resolve or sell off. This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the management of banking crises. The author may be contacted at dklingebielworldbank.org
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman External Sustainability
    Keywords: Assets ; Capital Controls ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Imbalances ; Current Account Surplus ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Investors ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Condition ; External Deficits ; External Position ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Foreign Asset ; Foreign Asset Positions ; Imbalances ; Investment Opportunities ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Long-Run Equilibrium ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Risk ; Risks ; Assets ; Capital Controls ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Imbalances ; Current Account Surplus ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Investors ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Condition ; External Deficits ; External Position ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Foreign Asset ; Foreign Asset Positions ; Imbalances ; Investment Opportunities ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Long-Run Equilibrium ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Risk ; Risks ; Assets ; Capital Controls ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Imbalances ; Current Account Surplus ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Investors ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Condition ; External Deficits ; External Position ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Foreign Asset ; Foreign Asset Positions ; Imbalances ; Investment Opportunities ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Long-Run Equilibrium ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Risk ; Risks
    Abstract: The 1994 crisis in Mexico, developments in East Asia, and persistent turmoil in world financial markets have dramatized the role of external imbalances in macroeconomic crises. Some believe that the current account should be kept from rising beyond a sustainable level, some that a current account surplus is the only solid external position. Can those rules of thumb be justified analytically? - Calderón, Loayza, and Servén consider external sustainability from the perspective of equilibrium in net foreign asset positions. Under their approach, an external situation is sustainable if it is consistent with international and domestic investors' achieving their desired portfolio allocation across countries. They develop a reduced-form model of net foreign asset positions whose long-run equilibrium condition expresses the ratio of net foreign assets to the total wealth of domestic residents as a negative function of investment returns in the country relative to the rest of the world, a positive function of investment risk, and an inverse function of the ratio of foreign-owned to domestically owned wealth. To estimate this equilibrium condition, the authors use a newly constructed data set of foreign asset and liability stocks for a large group of industrial and developing countries, from the 1960s to the present. They also develop summary measures of country returns and risks. Their econometric methodology is an application of the Pooled Mean Group estimator recently developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999), which allows for unrestricted cross-country heterogeneity in short-term dynamics while imposing a common long-run specification. The estimation results lend considerable support to the model, especially when applied to countries with low capital controls or high or upper-middle income. The results for countries with high capital controls and, especially, lower-income countries are less supportive of the stock equilibrium model. As a byproduct of the model's estimation, the authors obtain estimates of the long-run equilibrium ratios of net foreign assets to wealth, conditional on the observed values of the country's relative returns, risks, and wealth. Then, for a selected group of industrial and developing countries, they evaluate the extent to which actual ratios diverge from their long-run counterparts - and hence the sustainability of current net foreign asset positions. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort to assess the sustainability of the external accounts of the major countries in the region. The authors may be contacted at nloayzacondor.bcentral.cl or lserven@worldbank.org
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Budina, Nina Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Reform, and Inflation Stabilization in Romania
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Deficits ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Defic Exchange ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditure ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Deficits ; Fiscal Policy ; Government Expenditures ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Debt ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Defic Revenues ; Tax ; Transition Economies ; Transition Economy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Deficits ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Defic Exchange ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditure ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Deficits ; Fiscal Policy ; Government Expenditures ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Debt ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Defic Revenues ; Tax ; Transition Economies ; Transition Economy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Deficits ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Defic Exchange ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditure ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Deficits ; Fiscal Policy ; Government Expenditures ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Debt ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Defic Revenues ; Tax ; Transition Economies ; Transition Economy
    Abstract: March 2000 - Fiscal problems are a key factor behind the inflation that has persisted in Eastern Europe since 1989. Deficits need to be cut back, but by how much for a given inflation target? A simple framework links debt, the deficit, and inflation to assess the fiscal stance of the Romanian economy. Unsustainable fiscal deficits were the chief reason for the inflation that has persisted in Eastern Europe since 1989. Deficits need to be cut back, but by how much for a given inflation target? Budina and van Wijnbergen develop a simple framework for debt, the deficit, and inflation to study the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy in Romania's economy. This framework can be used to 1) determine the financeable deficit and the required deficit reduction for a given rate of output growth, inflation rate, and target for debt-output ratios, and 2) to find the inflation rate for which no fiscal adjustment is needed. They use this framework to assess consistency between inflation, monetary reform, and fiscal policy in Romania. Many of the issues in Romania are similar to those in other countries. But Romania is an interesting case because of its history of unsuccessful stabilization attempts. The authors' results suggest that fiscal problems during 1992-94 were masked by shifting government expenses to the books of the National Bank of Romania so that the government deficit did not fully reflect public spending. In addition, the effects of delayed fiscal adjustment were mitigated by exchange rate overvaluation and favorable debt dynamics. In the late 1990s, however, debt dynamics worsened and the economy experienced significant real depreciation. That exacerbated the fiscal problems and increased the fiscal adjustment needed to restore consistency. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study transition economies. The authors may be contacted at nbudinaworldbank.org or svw.heas@wxs.nl
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  • 34
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (52 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies during Speculative Attacks?
    Keywords: Balance Of Payments ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Fixed Nominal Exchange Rates ; Foreign Exchange ; Growth Rates ; Interest Rate Differentials ; Interest Rates ; International Capital Flows ; International Monetary Fund ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Authorities ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Economics ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Shocks ; Nominal Exchange Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Tight Monetary Policy ; Balance Of Payments ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Fixed Nominal Exchange Rates ; Foreign Exchange ; Growth Rates ; Interest Rate Differentials ; Interest Rates ; International Capital Flows ; International Monetary Fund ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Authorities ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Economics ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Shocks ; Nominal Exchange Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Tight Monetary Policy ; Balance Of Payments ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Fixed Nominal Exchange Rates ; Foreign Exchange ; Growth Rates ; Interest Rate Differentials ; Interest Rates ; International Capital Flows ; International Monetary Fund ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Authorities ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Economics ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Shocks ; Nominal Exchange Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Tight Monetary Policy
    Abstract: January 2000 - No - there is no systematic association between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. Drawing on evidence from a large sample of speculative attacks in industrial and developing countries, Kraay argues that high interest rates do not defend currencies against speculative attacks. In fact, there is a striking lack of any systematic association between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. The lack of clear empirical evidence on the effects of high interest rates during speculative attacks mirrors the theoretical ambiguities on this issue. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the causes and consequences of financial crises. The author may be contacted at akraayworldbank.org
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