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  • 2015-2019  (15)
  • International Development Association  (15)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (15)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Chad : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Following the restructuring of the debt to Glencore and the progress made in clearing external arrears, debt vulnerabilities declined significantly, and the external risk rating has been upgraded to high. The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) shows that all debt burden indicators, except the debt-service-to-revenue ratio which has minor and temporary breaches, are below their respective thresholds in the baseline from 2018 onwards. The debt-service-to-revenue ratio, falls below the threshold in 2019 and remains so throughout the projection period, except for minor breaches in 2020 and 2021. Overall, total public debt vulnerabilities are elevated although the present value (PV) of the public debt-to- gross domestic product (GDP) ratio remains on a downward trajectory. The fixed primary balance scenario, which keeps the primary deficit-to-GDP ratio unchanged from 2017, shows the debt ratio declining at a slower pace throughout the forecast period, further highlighting the need to adhere to the prudent fiscal policy framework underpinning the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported program. Adoption and implementation of an appropriate debt management strategy, while making progress in economic diversification will further reduce vulnerabilities
    DOI: 10.1596/30522
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
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    Republic of the Marshall Islands : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The 2018 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses that the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) remains at high risk of debt distress. The ratios of the present value (PV) of external public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt to GDP and to exports are currently just below their respective policy-dependent indicative thresholds. The PV of the PPG debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline slightly in the near term, but to start increasing and exceed its indicative threshold in the medium to long term. Stress tests confirm the vulnerability of the debt position to lending terms as well as macroeconomic shocks. Although the RMI does not currently face debt servicing risks, helped by government revenue from fishing licenses and a stable flow of funds from the U.S. Compact grants until FY2023, a lack of fiscal buffers after FY2023 and risks from contingent liabilities call for a fiscal reform strategy. Containing the risk of debt distress requires continuation of grants to support the country's large development needs, and implementation of fiscal and structural reforms to promote fiscal sustainability and growth
    DOI: 10.1596/30529
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
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    The Gambia : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: An updated debt sustainability analysis (DSA) indicates that The Gambia is currently in external debt distress and that public debt is unsustainable. Both external and domestic debt are very high, and a significant pipeline of already-contracted loans poses risks to solvency. External debt stock indicators have deteriorated since the March 2018 DSA, and all five external debt burden indicators breach their indicative thresholds by large margins and for an extended period in the passive scenario and in the active (baseline) scenario. The stress test results illustrate the country's high vulnerability to shocks, total public debt is expected to remain elevated throughout the projection period, rollover risks associated with the short maturity of domestic debt are high, and contingent liabilities related to SOE debt pose additional risks. Furthermore, the sustained primary surpluses needed to reduce public debt would be politically and socially challenging given The Gambia's substantial development needs. New borrowing would need to be on highly concessional terms and reserved for the very highest priority projects for which grant-financing is not available. The government should also refrain from offering any guarantees. An illustrative scenario shows how debt relief (comprising a deferral of principal due to pluri-lateral, bilateral official and private creditors and a softening of the terms of the already contracted loans)-complementing the implementation of a sound medium-term fiscal framework and debt strategy-could be instrumental in restoring debt sustainability
    DOI: 10.1596/30906
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Liberia : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Liberia remains at moderate risk of debt distress, though care and precision in implementing its ambitious infrastructure program will be critical. Under the baseline scenario, which reflects staff's interpretation of the authorities' stated plans, Liberia will remain at moderate risk of debt distress but move closer to thresholds that mark a high probability of debt distress. Adverse risks to the baseline are also significant. Staff discussed an alternative reform scenario that would ease the risk of debt distress while achieving roughly the same level of spending. The reform scenario assumes that all external financing would be on concessional terms and the amount of additional borrowing would be strictly controlled and supplemented with domestic resource mobilization. Such steps would be beneficial not only to improve the safety margin for the preservation of debt and macroeconomic stability, but also to sustain broad-based growth over the forecast horizon
    DOI: 10.1596/30903
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 5
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    Central African Republic : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Central African Republic (C.A.R.) continues to be assessed at high risk of external debt distress. This rating is unchanged from the previous analysis and consistent with the staff report of December 2017. Under the baseline scenario, one debt burden indicator breaches its threshold. And stress tests show that both external and total public debt sustainability is vulnerable to slower gross domestic product (GDP), export, and revenue growth. For total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt (external plus domestic), the debt-to-GDP indicator remains below its prudent benchmark. However, the existence of large arrears to suppliers and unpaid public-sector wages in the domestic debt stock justifies the assessment of a heightened overall risk of debt distress. Contingent liabilities can further exacerbate vulnerability concerns. To safeguard debt sustainability, the government's investment program requires grant financing, with highly concessional debt financing to be considered only in exceptional cases
    DOI: 10.1596/30524
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 6
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    Online Resource
    Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Sao Tome and Principe is classified as being in debt distress according to this joint World Bank-IMF low-income country debt sustainability analysis (DSA). This assessment has changed from the previous DSA completed in December 2017 (high risk of external debt distress) due to the prolonged negotiations on rescheduling external arrears. Nonetheless, Sao Tome and Principe's debt ratios have improved since the previous DSA. Specifically, the ratio of the present value of public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt to gross domestic product (GDP) no longer exceeds its threshold under the baseline scenario, due to lower-than-expected loan disbursements in 2017, an appreciation of the euro vis-a -vis the U.S. dollar, and higher-than-expected GDP deflator growth. As in the previous DSA, the debt service ratios stay below their respective thresholds under almost all scenarios. Nevertheless, the ratios of the present value of debt to exports and to revenue still exceed their respective thresholds under the baseline scenario early in the projection period, though they decline over time. This DSA underscores the importance of lowering all PPG external debt indicators below their thresholds by continuing fiscal consolidation, eschewing non-concessional loans, promoting growth, and expanding the export base
    DOI: 10.1596/30528
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Guinea : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The results of the update of the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) show that Guinea continues to be at a moderate risk of external debt distress. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their policy-dependent thresholds and debt dynamics have improved compared to the 2017 DSA, given higher-than-anticipated growth during 2016-17. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities owing to accumulation of external debt related to financing of infrastructure projects will increase if adverse shocks materialize, though remaining more contained than in the 2017 DSA. Under most extreme stress tests, all solvency and liquidity indicators except one breach their thresholds and for prolonged periods. The inclusion of domestic debt does not significantly change the conclusion of the external DSA. A prudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing the concessionality of new debt, limiting non-concessional loans in line with programmed amounts, and strengthening debt management will be key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability
    DOI: 10.1596/30907
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Madagascar : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Madagascar's risk of external debt distress is assessed to be moderate, in line with the last debt sustainability analysis (DSA) of June 2017, since the dynamics of Madagascar's external public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt remain sustainable under the baseline. The public DSA shows total (domestic and external) PPG debt is also sustainable under the baseline, so risks to domestic debt are not assessed as significant. However, stress tests breach the prudent benchmark for the public DSA (covering both domestic and external debt) and, in only some instances, for the external DSA. The analysis suggests that shocks to gross domestic product (GDP) growth are the main potential source of vulnerability, especially for the public DSA. A weaker currency, widened fiscal deficits, lower exports, or higher interest rates present additional risks. This DSA reflects updated and more detailed loan data, which include marginally less favorable financing conditions than in the last DSA
    DOI: 10.1596/30523
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 9
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    Cameroon : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Cameroon's risk of external debt distress remains high. Fiscal consolidation and the Fund-supported envisaged reforms, coupled with the increasing share of concessional new borrowing, would improve the debt profile over time. However, at present, Cameroon's external debt remains highly vulnerable to exogenous shocks: the policy-dependent threshold for the present value of debt to exports and debt service to exports are breached in the baseline program scenario as well as under standard stress tests. Mitigating risks to public debt thus requires a number of policy actions including: (i) a resolute and effective fiscal consolidation; (ii) a shift in the composition of new borrowing towards concessional loans; (iii) enhanced controls on externally-financed investment projects at all levels of government; (iv) implementation of policies to boost growth and non-oil exports; and (iv) a strengthening of public debt management
    DOI: 10.1596/30525
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 10
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    Grenada : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: This report provides a Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) of Grenada's public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external and total debt for 2018. The macro-framework incorporates all previous debt restructurings, including the November 2017 haircut on commercial debt. Total public debt has declined from 108 percent of GDP in 2013 to below 71 percent of GDP in 2017 with external public debt declining to 48 percent of GDP. This reduction was made possible through a comprehensive restructuring of Grenada's public debt, fiscal consolidation, and robust economic growth. Nevertheless, with some USD 15.7 million (1.4 percent of GDP) in unresolved arrears to official bilateral creditors, Grenada's external debt risk rating remains 'in debt distress'. Going forward full regularization of arrears and continued fiscal discipline will be needed to keep the debt on a downward path and withstand the existing vulnerabilities to external shocks and natural disasters
    DOI: 10.1596/30530
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 11
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    Bangladesh : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: This debt sustainability analysis (DSA) fully updates the May 2017 joint IMF/WB DSA. Bangladesh's risks of external debt distress and overall debt distress continue to be assessed as low. The FY17 fiscal deficit remains well below the 5 percent of GDP budget target. Spending control and slower implementation of development projects more than compensated for revenue underperformance. The issuance of National Savings Certificates (NSCs) remains high. Over the medium term, debt ratios are projected to remain on a sustainable path, assuming continued spending restraint, with the deficit used to finance productive investment. Boosting budget revenue is key to creating fiscal space for diversification and growth. The authorities are delaying the implementation of the VAT reform further by two years. Any additional costs from spending pressures ahead of the parliamentary elections and from the Rohingya refugees remain key risks
    DOI: 10.1596/30905
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  • 12
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    Togo : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Togo's risk of external debt distress continues to be moderate with heightened overall risk of debt distress-unchanged from the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) published in April 2017. Alternative scenarios and stress tests suggest, however, that external public debt could accumulate rapidly, pushing Togo above the external debt-distress threshold for the present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-GDP. Togo's domestic public debt burden remains high and reflects among others, persistently high deficits, materialized contingent liabilities and arrears accumulation. Baseline projections show that Togo's PV of total PPG debt (external plus domestic) -to-GDP ratio will reach the 38 percent benchmark by 2025, down from 73.1 percent in 2017 -with the bulk constituting domestic debt obligations. This analysis highlights the need for sustained fiscal consolidation, improved debt management, and macroeconomic policies to reduce the level of public debt to prudent levels over the medium term
    DOI: 10.1596/30909
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  • 13
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    Honduras : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) shows some improvement relative to the previous review mainly due to better-than-expected outcomes in year 2017 and the revised profile of PPP operations. Staff still assess the risk of debt distress as moderate. Continued strengthening of institutions underpinning sound macroeconomic policies would be required for a future upgrade
    DOI: 10.1596/30904
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  • 14
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    Dominica : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Dominica continues to be at high risk of debt distress. However, hurricane Maria in September 2017 caused severe social hardship and deterioration of fiscal and external balances, weakening sustainability. In addition, Dominica's debt carrying capacity as measured by the three-year CPIA average declined. Thus, setting public and publicly guaranteed total and external debt on a declining path would require prudent and efficient fiscal policies that safeguard fiscal space for social relief and reconstruction investment. A fiscal consolidation plan is needed after recovery takes hold to sustain reconstruction investment. Donor grant mobilization is key to minimize the debt burden. Main risks to the debt sustainability outlook include sudden stop in citizenship-by-investment (CBI) program revenues, financial instability from weakened balance sheets, and recurrent natural disasters
    DOI: 10.1596/30910
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 15
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    Tuvalu : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The DSA concludes that Tuvalu remains at a high risk of debt distress, in line with the 2016 DSA conclusion. External debt has breached several thresholds as of 2017, including for the present value of debt-to-GDP. Risks to debt sustainability remain high due to elevated current spending, a projected decline in fishing revenue and grants, and risks of natural disasters. A persistent fiscal deficit is projected to deplete fiscal buffers and cause the present value of debt-to-GDP to breach its indicative threshold in the long run. This underscores the importance of containing the fiscal deficit and maintaining buffers
    DOI: 10.1596/30908
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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