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  • 1
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    Quantifying the effect of policies to promote educational performance on macroeconomic productivity (2023)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1781
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the link between educational policies and i) student performance and ii) macroeconomic measures of productivity. The analysis has two stages. First, using the 2015 and 2018 PISA databases, it quantifies the relationship between student test scores and the characteristics of students taking the tests, their school environment and national educational systems. Second, assuming that these relationships reflect the effect of different characteristics/policies on student test performance, the second stage converts the latter into an estimated effect on macroeconomic measures of productivity using a new measure of human capital as an intermediary variable. This new measure of human capital, devised in previous OECD work, combines student test scores and mean years of schooling with estimated elasticities that suggest the former is more important. The analysis shows a positive association between spending on education and student test scores, but only for levels of student expenditure below the OECD median, suggesting scope for currently low-spending countries to raise student performance with potential gains to long-run productivity. Boosting participation in early childhood education as well as improving teacher quality is found to generate large aggregate productivity gains. There are significant, but smaller, macroeconomic gains for many countries from limiting grade repetition and ability grouping across all subjects as well as increasing the accountability of schools. Finally, the results provide evidence for income inequality having a major influence on productivity through a human capital channel.
    DOI: 10.1787/b00051cc-en
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  • 2
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    Quantifying the macroeconomic impact of COVID-19-related school closures through the human capital channel (2022)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1729
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper uses a new measure of human capital, which distinguishes both quality and quantity components, to estimate the long-term effect of the COVID-19-related school closures on aggregate productivity through the human capital channel. Productivity losses build up over time and are estimated to range between 0.4% and 2.1% after 45 years, for 12 weeks and 2 years of school closure, respectively. These results appear to be broadly consistent with earlier findings in the literature. Two opposing effects might influence these estimates. Online teaching would lower economic costs while learning losses in tertiary education (not considered here) would inflate them. Policies aimed at improving the quality of education and adult training will be needed to offset or, at least, alleviate the impact of the pandemic on human capital.
    DOI: 10.1787/eea048c5-en
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  • 3
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    The effect of structural reforms: Do they differ between GDP and adjusted household disposable income? (2022)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 Seiten) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1718
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The paper considers whether structural reforms have a different impact on adjusted household disposable income (AHDI) compared to GDP, particularly given that while the latter is currently used as the basis for the OECD Economics Department’s framework for evaluating the effect of structural policy reforms, the former is arguably a better measure of welfare. The main findings are that there are indeed a number of structural policies where the long-run effects on GDP and AHDI are proportionately different, so that percentage changes in the two aggregates are significantly different following a policy reform. One group of structural policies, typically those where the transmission mechanism depends mainly on productivity and capital intensity (including cuts in corporate income tax and policies to simulate business R&D) or which can weaken the bargaining power of labour (for example a loosening of EPL), have weaker long-run positive effects on AHDI than GDP. Other structural reform policies (including in-kind family benefits, family cash benefits and cuts in the income tax wedge) have a magnified effect on AHDI, so that following a policy reform, long-run percentage changes in AHDI are larger than for GDP. Cross-referencing the analysis in the paper with structural reform priorities previously identified in the OECD’s regular Going for Growth surveillance exercise, suggests that increased spending on childcare and early childhood education might usefully be part of any policy package to address the ‘cost of living crisis’ currently being faced by many OECD households.
    DOI: 10.1787/def775b1-en
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  • 4
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    A new macroeconomic measure of human capital exploiting PISA and PIAAC: Linking education policies to productivity (2022)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1709
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper provides a new measure of human capital using PISA and PIAAC surveys, and mean years of schooling. The new measure is a cohort-weighted average of past PISA scores (representing the quality of education) of the working age population and the corresponding mean years of schooling (representing the quantity of education). In contrast to the existing literature, the relative weights of each component are not imposed or calibrated but directly estimated. The paper finds that the elasticity of the stock of human capital with respect to the quality of education is three to four times larger than for the quantity of education. The new measure has a strong link to productivity with the potential for productivity gains being much greater from improvements in the quality than quantity component of human capital. The magnitude of these potential gains in MFP is comparable to a similarly standardised improvement in product market regulation, but the effects materialise with much longer lags. The paper demonstrates through the example of pre-primary education, how to simulate the impact of a particular reform to education policy on human capital and productivity.
    DOI: 10.1787/a1046e2e-en
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  • 5
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    The tortoise and the hare: The race between vaccine rollout and new COVID variants (2021)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 p.)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1672
    Keywords: Coronavirus ; Impfung ; Morbidität ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Wirkungsanalyse ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics
    Abstract: New variants of the virus are spreading which, together with seasonal effects, are estimated to be able to raise effective reproduction numbers by up to 90%. Meanwhile, many countries are rolling out vaccination programmes, but at varying speeds. Hence the race is on to beat the variants with the vaccines. Vaccination is very powerful at reducing virus transmission: fully vaccinating 20% of the population is estimated to have the same effect as closing down public transport and all-but-essential workplaces; fully vaccinating 50% of the population would have a larger effect than simultaneously applying all forms of containment policies in their most extreme form (closure of workplaces, public transport and schools, restrictions on travel and gatherings and stay-at-home requirements). For a typical OECD country, relaxing existing containment policies would be expected to raise GDP by about 4-5%. Quick vaccination would thus help limit the extent to which containment policies need to be escalated in future epidemic waves, providing huge welfare benefits both in terms of fewer infections and stronger economic activity.
    DOI: 10.1787/4098409d-en
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  • 6
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    The quantification of structural reforms (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1482
    Keywords: Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Regulierung ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Investition ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; Vergleich ; OECD-Staaten ; Schwellenländer ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper summarises earlier OECD work aimed at quantifying the impact of structural reforms on economic outcomes. It overviews: i.) insights obtained for the linear relationships linking policies and economic outcomes (including multi-factor productivity, capital deepening and employment) for an almost complete set of OECD countries, ii.) non-linear results on how policies interact with each other in OECD countries, and iii.) results extended for emerging-market economies looking at whether policy effects vary across countries depending on the level of economic development and whether institutions have an influence on economic outcomes. The paper lists of policies and institutions that could be used to quantify the effect of reforms. It also gives some guidance on how to quantify reforms in OECD and non-OECD countries. It provides mid-point estimates of the long-run effects on per capita income levels through the three supply-side channels. Finally, it raises the issue of estimation and model uncertainty.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/6d883be1-en
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  • 7
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    The quantification of structural reforms : introducing country-specific policy effects (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1487
    Keywords: Strukturwandel ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Regulierung ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Investition ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper presents country-specific effects of structural reforms. It discusses how sizeable and interesting country-specific effects can be identified in a panel setting by conditioning the impact of individual policies on their own level or on the stance of other policies and institutions. This approach allows for the incorporation of a potentially large set of additional policy areas including institutions and policy areas with limited time-series availability (e.g. sub-components of the Product Market Regulation indicator, housing market regulations and policies, Doing Business indicators and the quality of institutions such as the rule of law indicator or the efficiency of the legal system). Results suggest that for instance, when more stringent product market regulation hurts more in more open economies. Better institutions amplify the positive effect of R&D spending. Tax wedge reduction leads to less employment gains when EPL is not very stringent.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/885727c3-en
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  • 8
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    The quantification of structural reforms in OECD countries : a new framework (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1354
    Keywords: Strukturwandel ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This document describes and discusses a new supply side framework that quantifies the impact of structural reforms on per capita income in OECD countries. It presents the overall macroeconomic impacts of reforms by aggregating over the effects on physical capital, employment and productivity through a production function. On the basis of reforms defined as observed changes in policies, the paper finds that product market regulation has the largest overall single policy impact five years after the reforms. But the combined impact of all labour market policies is considerably larger than that of product market regulation. The paper also shows that policy impacts can differ at different horizons. The overall long-term effects on GDP per capita of policies transiting through capital deepening can be considerably larger than the 5- to 10-year impacts. By contrast, the long-term impact of policies coming only via the employment rate channel materialises at shorter horizon.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/2d887027-en
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  • 9
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    Regulation, institutions and aggregate investment : new evidence from OECD countries (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1392
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt ; Strukturpolitik ; Kapitalintensität ; Investition ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship linking investment (capital stock) and structural policies. Using a panel of 32 OECD countries from 1985 to 2013, we show that more stringent product and labour market regulations are associated with less investment (lower capital stock). The paper also sheds light on the existence of non-linear effects of product and labour market regulation on the capital stock. Several alternative testing methods show that the negative influence of product and labour market regulation is considerably stronger at higher levels. The paper uncovers important policy interactions between product and labour market policies. Higher levels of product market regulations (covering state control, barriers to entrepreneurship and barriers to trade and investment) tend to amplify the negative relationships between product and labour market regulations and the capital stock. Equally important is the finding that the rule of law and the quality of (legal) institutions alters the overall impact of regulations on capital deepening: better institutions reduce the negative effect of more stringent product and labour market regulations on the capital stock, possibly through the reduction of uncertainty as regards the protection of property rights.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/a4ece3c5-en
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  • 10
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    The quantification of structural reforms : extending the framework to emerging market economies (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1442
    Keywords: Erwerbstätigkeit ; Produktivität ; Regulierung ; Wirkungsanalyse ; OECD-Staaten ; Schwellenländer ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper estimates and quantifies the impact of structural reforms on per capita income for a large set of OECD and non-OECD countries. The findings suggest that the quality of institutions matters to a large extent for economic outcomes. More competition-friendly regulations, as measured by the OECDs’ Product Market Regulation (PMR) indicator improve economic outcomes. Lower barriers to foreign trade and investment help MFP. Lower barriers to entry and less pervasive state control of businesses boost the capital stock and the employment rate. No robust link between labour market regulation and MFP and capital deepening could be established. But looser labour market regulation is found to go hand in hand with higher employment rates. The paper shows that countries at different level of economic development face different policy impacts. Furthermore, PMR effects depend on the level of labour market regulations.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/f0a6fdcb-en
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  • 11
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    Structural policy indicators database for economic research (SPIDER) (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1429
    Keywords: Strukturpolitik ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; Datenbank ; Wirtschaftsforschung ; Schwellenländer ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This document describes the OECD’s new Structural Policy Indicators Database for Economic Research (SPIDER). The database compiles data from various existing databases. It contains indicators capturing structural policies (including institutions, framework condition policies and policies specifically related to labour markets and drivers of productivity and investment such as trade, skills and innovation). It also contains some basic macroeconomic indicators. The main idea of the database is to provide all the data needed for empirical analysis on structural policies in one place to facilitate empirical investigations. The indicators collected comprise three types of data: data with long-time series covering OECD countries, data covering a larger set of countries for a varying number of years, and finally a set of time-invariant indicators. The paper illustrates the use of the database on the basis of different growth regressions employed in the literature.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/39d69dff-en
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  • 12
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    Aggregate multi-factor productivity : measurement issues in OECD countries (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1441
    Keywords: Produktivität ; Humankapital ; Messung ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper analyses for 34 OECD countries the extent to which the calculation of aggregate multi-factor productivity (MFP) is sensitive to alternative parameterisations. The starting point is the definition of MFP used in previous work in the OECD’s Economics Department (e.g. Johansson et al. 2013). They include alternative MFP measures, with human capital included or excluded, with different measures of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) exchange rates, using time-varying capital depreciation rates and different measures of capital stock and labour input (headcount against hours worked). The main result of the paper is that whether or not human capital is included in MFP makes a significant difference for the level and dynamics of MFP. At the same time, MFP measures are less sensitive to other parameters of the calculation.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5c80faf8-en
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  • 13
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    Regulation, institutions and productivity : new macroeconomic evidence from OECD countries (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1393
    Keywords: Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Messung ; Humankapital ; Makroökonomik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Empirical research on the drivers of multi-factor productivity (MFP) is abundant at the firm- and industry level but surprisingly little research has been conducted on the determinants of MFP at the macroeconomic level. In this paper, we seek to understand the drivers of country-level MFP with a special emphasis on product and labour market policies and the quality of institutions. For a panel of OECD countries, we find that anticompetitive product market regulations are associated with lower MFP levels and that higher innovation intensity and greater openness go in tandem with higher MFP. We also find that the impact of product market regulations on MFP may depend on the level of labour market regulations. Better institutions, a more business friendly environment and lower barriers to trade and investment amplify the positive impact of R&D spending on MFP. Finally, we also show that cross-country MFP variations can be explained to a considerable extent by cross-country variation in labour market regulations, barriers to trade and investment and institutions (including corruption).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/579ceba4-en
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  • 14
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    The quantification of structural reforms in OECD countries: A new framework (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Economic Studies Vol. 2016, no. 1, p. 91-108 | volume:2016 | year:2016 | number:1 | pages:91-108
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (18 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Economic Studies
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2016, no. 1, p. 91-108
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2016
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2016
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:91-108
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This document describes and discusses a new supply side framework that quantifies the impact of structural reforms on per capita income in OECD countries. It obtains the overall macroeconomic reform impacts by aggregating over the effects on physical capital, employment and productivity through a production function. On the basis of reforms defined as observed changes in policies, the paper finds that product market regulation has the largest overall single policy impact five years after the reforms. But the combined impact of all labour market policies is considerably larger than that of product market regulation. The paper also shows that policy impacts can differ at different horizons. The overall long-term effects on GDP per capita of policies transiting through capital deepening can be considerably larger than the 5- to 10-year impacts. By contrast, the long-term impact of policies coming only via the employment rate channel materialises at shorter horizon.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2016-5jg1lqspxtvk
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  • 15
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    Regulations in services sectors and their impact on downstream industries : the OECD 2013 REGIMPACT indicator (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1303
    Keywords: Dienstleistungssektor ; Regulierung ; Wettbewerb ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This document presents the new 2013 set of the OECD Regulatory Impact (REGIMPACT) indicator. It measures the impact of regulatory barriers to competition in non-manufacturing sectors on all industries, through intermediate inputs. The paper describes how the indicator is calculated and discusses a number of challenges and trade-offs when constructing the indicator. They relate to the composition of the indicator, how the slow-moving or time-invariant retail and professional services regulation data are integrated with the annual energy, transport and communication regulation (ETCR) indicator and what sector weights are used for the calculation of the REGIMPACT indicator. The document then compares the 2003, 2008 and 2013 vintages of the REGIMPACT indicator and the alternative (narrow and wide) definitions of the 2013 indicator. Finally, the paper uses sectoral data to illustrate the extent to which different vintages and alternative indicator definitions can possibly influence sector-level panel regression results for outcome variables such as productivity, investment and labour inputs.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlwz7kz39q8-en
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  • 16
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    Efficacité et équité du système de prélèvements et de transferts en France (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 p.) , 21 x 29.7cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1038
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe The Efficiency and Equity of the Tax and Transfer System in France
    Keywords: Taxation ; Economics ; France
    Abstract: Les impôts et les transferts en espèces réduisent en France les inégalités de revenu plus que dans beaucoup d’autres pays de l’OCDE en raison de la taille importante des flux concernés. Mais le système est complexe dans son ensemble. Son efficacité pourrait être améliorée à bien des égards, par exemple pour atteindre le même degré de redistribution à moindre coût. Le code des impôts devrait être simplifié et moins fréquemment modifié. Les taux statutaires élevés vont de pair avec un large éventail de taux d’imposition effectifs résultant d’une multitude de niches fiscales et sociales. Il est nécessaire d’élargir l’assiette fiscale, y compris pour la TVA, et de baisser les taux dans l’ensemble du système. Le coin fiscal sur les revenus du travail est élevé sauf dans le bas de la distribution des salaires, ce qui peut réduire la participation au marché du travail ainsi que les offres d’emploi. Une plus grande neutralité fiscale à l’intérieur et entre les différentes catégories d’actifs, et le déplacement des prélèvements sur le travail et le capital vers les taxes environnementales et les taxes sur la propriété immobilière permettraient d’améliorer les performances économiques. De la même façon, le système de prestations sociales devrait être simplifié pour gagner en transparence et en cohérence. La suppression des dispositifs permettant les sorties précoces du marché du travail, l’élimination des régimes spéciaux de retraite et l’internalisation du coût des pensions de réversion augmenteraient l’équité tout en générant des économies. Les performances du marché du travail pourraient être améliorées en augmentant les incitations à la recherche d’emploi et en raccourcissant l’allocation de congé parental. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la France 2013 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/France).
    DOI: 10.1787/5k487n499bq6-fr
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  • 17
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    Politiques environnementales de la France: Internaliser les externalités globales et locales (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: French
    Pages: 48 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.859
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. France's Environmental Policies: Internalising Global and Local Externalities
    Keywords: Environment ; Economics ; France
    Abstract: Les autorités ont défini un programme très ambitieux en matière de politique de l’environnement, dont les grands axes sont, outre la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES), la lutte contre la pollution atmosphérique locale et la pollution de l’eau, la gestion des déchets et la préservation de la biodiversité. Les lois adoptées dans le sillage du Grenelle de l’environnement pour favoriser la transition vers une économie sobre en carbone ciblent la production d’électricité, l’industrie, les transports, la gestion des déchets, le bâtiment et l’agriculture. Le gouvernement est déterminé à réduire les émissions de GES de 75 % d’ici à 2050, ce qui constitue un objectif ambitieux. Cette étude s’attache à évaluer les politiques sous l’angle de leur rapport coût-efficacité. Dans ce contexte, une attention particulière doit être accordée aux possibilités d’imposer un prix unique du carbone après la censure de la contribution carbone par le Conseil constitutionnel, aux enjeux de la production d’électricité d’origine renouvelable et nucléaire, aux moyens de faire baisser l’intensité carbone dans le secteur résidentiel et les transports, à la façon d’améliorer la gestion des déchets, ainsi qu’à la question de savoir si les coûts externes liés à l’utilisation d’engrais et de pesticides sont convenablement pris en compte dans la gestion de l’eau. Si des avancées considérables ont été réalisées sur la voie d’une économie « verte », il reste à relever un important défi en internalisant les externalités globales et locales dans tous les secteurs de l’économie, ce qui permettrait d’être plus efficace en termes de coûts/bénéfices.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kgdpn0cxzd2-fr
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  • 18
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    Public Policies and Investment in Network Infrastructure (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 1-23
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 23 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 1-23
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: How can public policy influence investment in infrastructure in network industries? Network industries rely mainly on fixed networks to deliver services, with investment being lumpy and largely irreversible. As a result, public policies – such as public provision, the introduction of competition and the regulatory environment – can potentially have an important impact on investment behaviour, with the net effect depending on the extent that policies boost socially-productive investment or reduce inefficient investment. Drawing on responses to a unique questionnaire assessing public policy in the network sectors, the information in this paper presents a systematic picture of relevant policies in place across OECD countries. Econometric analysis – both at the sectoral and firm level – finds that public policies can have significant quantitative effects. In particular, the introduction of competitive pressures through the reduction of barriers to entry and the combination of regulator independence and incentive regulation can promote investment in the sector.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2011-5kg51mlvk6r6
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    Réduire la dette publique française : Les options de l'assainissement budgétaire (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: French
    Pages: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.858
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Bringing French Public Debt Down: The Options for Fiscal Consolidation
    Keywords: Economics ; France
    Abstract: France has a track record of persistent general government deficits, partly reflecting pro-cyclical fiscal policies in upswings. This has resulted in a quadrupling of its public debt-to-GDP ratio since the 1970s to above 80% of GDP. Reducing public debt is crucial because a high level of public debt may hamper long-term growth and may have a direct impact on fiscal sustainability if long-term interest rates rise. Bringing back public debt to 60% of GDP even by 2030 would require a fiscal effort of 4 to 5 percentage points of GDP (under the assumption of unchanged long-term rates), implying permanent primary general government surpluses, which is very ambitious in view of French fiscal history since 1970. The government’s consolidation programme, which is aimed at reducing the general government deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013, represents around two-thirds of this effort. This study analyses how fiscal governance could be improved by the creation of a structural deficit rule and looks at ways the public deficit could be lowered. With France already having a very large public sector, most of the effort should be borne by holding down spending. Better control of the public wage bill, increasing public-sector efficiency and tackling age-related costs are the obvious candidates to contain expenditure. On the revenue side, there is significant potential for cutting tax expenditures. Furthermore, eliminating distortions in the tax base would encourage economic growth.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kgdpn0x92jg-fr
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  • 20
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    Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD : Pro- or Counter-cyclical? (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 48 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.763
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper analyses the reaction of fiscal policy to the cycle in OECD countries. The results suggest that while overall government balances were counter-cyclical in the past and more so in economic downturns than in upswings, discretionary fiscal policy was neutral on average. However, discretionary fiscal policy appears to react to the cycle in a non-linear fashion: fiscal policy in countries with high public debt and high government deficits tends to be pro-cyclical, while countries that have low public debt and that have surpluses are more likely to conduct a counter-cyclical fiscal policy. The paper also finds that asset prices have a significant impact on government balances.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmft7pthb27-en
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  • 21
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    Counter-cyclical Economic Policy (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 103 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.760
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: What changes are needed to make counter-cyclical economic policy more effective in the aftermath of the recent crisis? An important lesson from the severity of the recent recession is that policy in various areas will have to be more prudent during upswings and to build in greater safety margins to be able to react to large adverse shocks. In the period leading up to the crisis, cycles became more synchronised, while asset prices became more volatile. Recent events also underline the difficulties encountered in detecting and reacting to asset price misalignments. The confluence of the turn in asset prices, financial market crisis and slump in trade challenged the ability of counter-cyclical policies to cope with the severe downturn, although experience reveals that countries where the fiscal position was sound and inflation under control were better able to cushion the shocks. Furthermore, robust micro-prudential regulation can help the financial sector withstand shocks. In this light, existing policies should be strengthened to ensure that there is room for manoeuvre going into a downturn. In order to deal with similar shocks in the future, macroeconomic and financial sector policies should consider precautionary policy settings and macro-prudential regulation to address systemic threats to stability.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmfw36tj97h-en
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  • 22
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    Catching-up and Inflation in Europe : Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and Other Culprits (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.792
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel’s Law may hold during periods of very fast growth. We interpret these results as a sign that price level convergence comes from goods, market and non-market service prices. Furthermore, we find that the Phillips curve flattens with a decline in the inflation rate, that inflation persistence increases and that commodity prices have a stronger effect on inflation in a higher inflation environment.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmblscvdk7d-en
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  • 23
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    Modeling Institutions, Start-ups and Productivity during Transition (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.773
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The transition paths from plan to market have varied markedly across countries. Central and Eastern European and the Baltic countries, which opted for a fast and profound transformation of their institutions, rapidly narrowed the productivity gap with advanced economies. In contrast, in countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, which embarked on reforms later and contented with less depth, the productivity gap remains substantial. While the literature has focused mainly on empirical studies, this paper develops a dynamic search model of the firm start-ups that is consistent with the above trends. The model shows that an enabling institutional set up stimulates start-ups of highly productive firms at an earlier stage of transition, underscoring the importance of reforms. The role of the state sector as an employer during transition rises in countries where reforming institutions is particularly costly.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmfkz5rk39s-en
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  • 24
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    Infrastructure Investment in Network industries : The Role of Incentive Regulation and Regulatory Independence (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 24 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.688
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper finds that coherent regulatory policies can boost investment in network industries of OECD economies. Rate-of-return regulation is generally thought to result in overinvestment, while incentive regulation is believed to entail underinvestment. Yet, previous empirical work has generally found that the introduction of incentive regulation has not systematically changed investment in network industries. According to the theoretical literature, regulatory uncertainty exposes both types of regimes to the danger of underinvestment. However, regulatory uncertainty is arguably higher under rate-of-return regulation because investment decisions (what can be included in the rate base) are usually evaluated in a discretionary manner, while firms operating under incentive regulation are less affected by this behaviour. In addition, incentive regulation encourages investment in cost-reducing technologies. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, this paper shows that incentive regulation implemented jointly with an independent sector regulator (indicating lower regulatory uncertainty) has a strong positive impact on investment in network industries. In addition, lower barriers to entry are also found to encourage sectoral investment. These results support the importance of implementing policies in a coherent framework.
    DOI: 10.1787/225261508320
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  • 25
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    Infrastructure and Growth : Empirical Evidence (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 61 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.685
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Investment in network infrastructure can boost long-term economic growth in OECD countries. Moreover, infrastructure investment can have a positive effect on growth that goes beyond the effect of the capital stock because of economies of scale, the existence of network externalities and competition enhancing effects. This paper, which is part of a project examining the links between infrastructure and growth and the role of public policies, reports the results on the links with growth from a variety of econometric approaches. Time-series results reveal a positive impact of infrastructure investment on growth. They also show that this effect varies across countries and sectors and over time. In some cases, these results reveal evidence of possible over-investment, which may be related to inefficient use of infrastructure. Bayesian model averaging of cross-section growth regressions confirm that infrastructure investment in telecommunications and the electricity sectors has a robust positive effect on long-term growth (but not in railways and road networks). Furthermore, this effect is highly nonlinear as the impact is stronger if the physical stock is lower.
    DOI: 10.1787/225682848268
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  • 26
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    The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate : Evidence from South Africa (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 29 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.692
    Keywords: Economics ; South Africa
    Abstract: This paper studies drivers of high-frequency (daily) dynamics of the South African rand vis-à-vis the dollar from January 2001 to July 2007. We find strong nonlinear effects of commodity prices, perceived country and emerging market risk premium and changes in the dollar-euro exchange rate on changes in daily returns of the rand-dollar exchange rate. We also identify a one-sided nonlinear mean reversion to the long-term monetary equilibrium. In addition we establish very short-lived effects on the exchange rate of selected macroeconomic surprises and central bank communication aimed at talking up the rand.
    DOI: 10.1787/224472688177
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  • 27
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    Infrastructure Investment : Links to Growth and the Role of Public Policies (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 78 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.686
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Investment in network infrastructure – the energy, water, transport and telecommunication networks – which performs a vital role for the functioning of the economy, can contribute to raising growth and social welfare. But more is not always better. While the paper shows that investment in the network industries has had a positive effect over and above the addition to the capital stock, there is evidence that investment in the past has sometimes been misallocated. This paper identifies the policy framework that promotes investment that is conducive to growth and ensures the appropriate use of infrastructure. Central aspects of this framework are identified as a robust decision making process, improving the selection of investment projects, the introduction of competitive pressures through the reduction of barriers to entry and vertical separation when this is appropriate. In addition, efficient investment can be promoted by the combination of regulator independence and the application of incentive regulation.
    DOI: 10.1787/225678178357
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    Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: Surveying the Surveyable (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 51 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.654
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM), with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our results indicate that the strength of the exchange rate pass-through substantially declined over time mainly due to a fall in inflation rates and to some extent due to the so-called composition effect. The asset price channel is weak and is likely to remain weak because of shallow stock and private bond markets and because of low stock and bond holdings of domestic household. House prices may become an exception with higher levels mortgage lending and with high owner occupancy ratios. While the credit channel could be a powerful channel of monetary transmission - as new funds raised on capital markets are close to zero in CEE - it is actually not, as both commercial banks and non-financial corporations can escape domestic monetary conditions by borrowing from their foreign mother companies. The moderately good news is, however, that those banks and firms are influenced by monetary policy in the euro area because their parent institutions are themselves subjected to the credit channel in the euro area.
    DOI: 10.1787/230605773237
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