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  • 2015-2019  (10)
  • Rusticelli, Elena  (7)
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
  • Schnorbus, Axel
  • OECD-Staaten  (10)
  • Trade
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Going local : a regional perspective on how trade affects labour markets and inequality (2018)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1530
    Keywords: Außenhandel ; Technischer Fortschritt ; Regionaler Arbeitsmarkt ; Industrie ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; Lohn ; Soziale Ungleichheit ; Lohnrigidität ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The increase of emerging market economies in international trade and rapid rise in global trade intensity over the past three decades has been accompanied by growing, regionally concentrated, discontent with trade in advanced OECD countries. One of the main concerns is the negative effects of growing import competition on employment. This paper focuses on manufacturing sector employment because of its high trade exposure and potential for wider spillovers. It finds that while trade appears to have only a minor association with manufacturing employment shares at the national level compared with technology, trade has an important role in regional labour market developments due to the geographical concentration of industrial activities. The "sticky" nature of manufacturing employment and sometimes inefficient inter-regional migration mean that trade shocks to local manufacturing can affect entire regional labour markets, leading to widening regional inequalities. Policies should, in particular, focus on boosting regional resilience to industry related shocks, whether they come from trade or technology by building local capacity, both in terms of people – more educated labour is more mobile across jobs – and innovation.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/2981f94c-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Care Needed : Improving the Lives of People with Dementia (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    ISBN: 9789264085107 , 9789264303683 , 9789264303676
    Language: English
    Pages: 100 p. , 21 x 28cm
    Series Statement: OECD Health Policy Studies
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Care needed
    DDC: 330
    Keywords: Alterskrankheit ; Pflegebedürftigkeit ; OECD-Staaten ; Social Issues/Migration/Health
    Abstract: Across the OECD, nearly 19 million people are living with dementia. Millions of family members and friends provide care and support to loved ones with dementia throughout their lives. Globally, dementia costs over USD 1 trillion per year and represents one of the leading causes of disability for elderly adults. These numbers will continue to rise as populations age. Until a cure or disease-modifying treatment for dementia is developed, the progress of the disease cannot be stopped. This report presents the most up-to-date and comprehensive cross-country assessment of the state of dementia care in OECD countries. In recent years, OECD countries have enhanced their efforts to provide high-quality dementia care during diagnosis, early and advanced dementia, but improving measurement is necessary for enhancements in care quality and outcomes for people with dementia. The report advises a set of policies that can help countries to improve diagnosis, strengthen access to care services, improve the quality of care, and support the families and carers of people living with dementia. Measuring and comparing the services that are delivered to people with dementia and the outcomes they achieve is a crucial part of improving dementia care. Most health systems have very poor data on dementia care and countries should work to strengthen the measurement of quality and outcomes of dementia care.
    DOI: 10.1787/9789264085107-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Can an increase in public investment sustainably lift economic growth? (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1351
    Keywords: Öffentliche Investition ; Nachhaltige Entwicklung ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Simulation ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which raising public investment can sustainably lift growth without deteriorating public finances. To do so, it relies on a range of simulations using three different macro-structural models. According to the simulations, OECD governments could finance a ½ percentage point of GDP investment-led stimulus for three to four years on average in OECD countries without raising the debt-to-GDP ratio in the medium term, provided projects are sound. After one year, the average output gains for the large advanced economies of such a stimulus amount to 0.4-0.6%. However, the gains are particularly uncertain for Japan. Reprioritising spending in later years would lead to average long-term output gains of between 0.5 to 2% in the large advanced economies. Those gains depend on the assumptions made on the rate of return. Hysteresis reinforces the case for an investment-led stimulus. Output gains will also be higher if the stimulus is combined with structural reforms and if countries act collectively.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/a25a7723-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1294
    Keywords: Produktionspotenzial ; Produktionsfunktion ; Arbeitsproduktivität ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Finanzkrise ; OECD-Staaten ; Employment ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisions to OECD published estimates of the output gap around the period of the financial crisis have been exceptionally large, with by far the largest contribution to these revisions coming from the labour-efficiency gap. The current paper investigates a modification to the standard OECD production function method for deriving potential output, which involves an additional cyclical adjustment in the derivation of trend labour efficiency. The additional adjustment helps to reduce the occurrence of large end-point revisions and of sign switches between the initial and final estimates of the labour-efficiency gap. The variables which are most often found to be useful in providing this cyclical adjustment of labour efficiency are manufacturing capacity utilisation and the investment share. However, for a few countries additional variables – house prices and credit – have been used to provide the cyclical adjustment, although this raises an issue as to whether the cyclical adjustment should be limited to a core set of variables to ensure the method remains reasonably homogenous across countries. Recent improvements to the specification of the Phillips curve, which imply a tighter fit between the unemployment gap and inflation, should also reduce end-point revisions to the unemployment gap in future.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jm0qwpqmz34-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Cardiac arrest or dizzy spell : why is world trade so weak and what can policy do about it? (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper no. 18 (September 2016)
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.18
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Betriebliche Wertschöpfung ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently. There are both structural and cyclical reasons for the slowdown. A deceleration in the rate of trade liberalisation post 2000 was initially obscured by the ongoing expansion of global value chains and associated rapid emergence of China in the world economy. Post the financial crisis global value chains started to unwind and, possibly associated with this, Chinese and Asian trade weakened markedly. These structural changes were compounded by insipid demand due to anaemic growth of global investment, as well as intra-euro area trade, both of which are trade intensive. The slowdown in world trade growth post crisis, if sustained, will have serious consequences for the medium-term growth of productivity and living standards. Trade policy has significant potential to reinvigorate trade growth but the political environment for reforms is difficult, with a growing polarisation of OECD electorates into pro- and anti- globalisation supporters. Further trade and investment policy liberalisation should be introduced as part of a wider package of structural reforms to spread the benefits of freer trade and investment more widely.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlr2h45q532-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession : a contest between small-scale bridge and large-scale dynamic factor models (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1313
    Keywords: 2008-2014 ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Prognoseverfahren ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper compares the short-term forecasting performance of state-of-the-art large-scale dynamic factor models (DFMs) and the small-scale bridge models routinely used at the OECD. Pseudo-real time out-of-sample forecasts for France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and the United States during and after the Great Recession (2008-2014) suggest that large-scale DFMs are not systematically more accurate than small-scale bridge models, especially at short forecast horizons. Moreover, DFM parameters appear to be highly unstable during the Great Recession (2008-2009), making forecast revisions between successive vintages difficult to explain as revisions cannot be fully attributed to news on specific groups of indicators. The implication for OECD forecasting practice is that there would be no gain from switching from the current small-scale bridge models to large-scale DFMs.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlv2jj4mw40-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment (2015)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1231
    Keywords: Inflationserwartung ; Phillips-Kurve ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Inflation has become much less sensitive to movements in unemployment in recent decades. A common explanation for this change is that inflation expectations have become better anchored as a consequence of credible inflation targeting by central banks. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the paper compares two competing empirical specifications across all OECD economies, where competing specifications correspond to the ‘former’ and ‘new’ specification for deriving measures of the unemployment gap which underlie the OECD’s Economic Outlook projections. The former OECD specification can be characterised as a traditional ‘backward-looking’ Phillips curve, where current inflation is partly explained by an autoregressive distributed lag process of past inflation representing both inertia and inflation expectations formed on the basis of recent inflation outcomes. Conversely, the new approach adjusts this specification to incorporate the notion that inflation expectations are anchored around the central bank’s inflation objective. The main finding of the paper is that the latter approach systematically out-performs the former for an overwhelming majority of OECD countries over a recent sample period. Relative to the backward-looking specification, the anchored expectations approach also tends to imply larger unemployment gaps for those countries for which actual unemployment has increased the most. Moreover, the anchored expectations Phillips curve reduces real-time revisions to the unemployment gap, although these still remain uncomfortably large, in the case of countries where there have been large changes in unemployment.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5js1gmq551wd-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The changing role of the exchange rate for macroeconomic adjustment (2015)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1190
    Keywords: Leistungsbilanz ; Wechselkurs ; Wechselkurspolitik ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Makroökonomik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Recent episodes of large exchange rate movements, such as for Japan or the United Kingdom, have typically not been associated with large changes in trade balances and despite the polarisation of international investment positions large currency fluctuations during the global crisis of 2008-09 did not cause significant financial dislocations. This paper presents empirical evidence that for a number of OECD countries firms’ increasing participation in global value chains may have contributed to reducing exchange rate pass-through to the terms of trade, which may in turn have contributed to reducing the response of trade balances to exchange rate changes. Further empirical evidence suggests that over the past two decades large net external debtor countries, including emerging market economies, have reduced net aggregate foreign currency exposures, thereby limiting direct financial effects of exchange rate fluctuations through the valuation of external assets and liabilities. However, sizable increases in foreign currency borrowing for a number of emerging market economies in the wake of the global crisis of 2008-09, including by non-financial corporations, suggest that large exchange rate movements may nonetheless cause financial stress for exposed sectors and entities that may percolate through the financial system despite limited aggregate exposures.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5js4rfhjf15l-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All (2015)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    ISBN: 9789264235120 , 9264232664
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (300 p.)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als In it together
    DDC: 339.209177
    RVK:
    CC 7700
    RVK:
    MS 6500
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; OECD-Staaten ; Employment ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Aufsatzsammlung ; OECD ; Soziale Ungleichheit
    Abstract: The gap between rich and poor keeps widening. Growth, if any, has disproportionally benefited higher income groups while lower income households have been left behind. This long-run increase in income inequality not only raises social and political concerns, but also economic ones. It tends to drag down GDP growth, due to the rising distance of the lower 40% from the rest of society. Lower income people have been prevented from realising their human capital potential, which is bad for the economy as a whole. This book highlights the key areas where inequalities are created and where new policies are required, including: the consequences of current consolidation policies; structural labour market changes with rising non-standard work and job polarization; persisting gender gaps; the challenge of high wealth concentration, and the role for redistribution policies.
    DOI: 10.1787/9789264235120-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The ABC of Gender Equality in Education : Aptitude, Behaviour, Confidence (2015)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    ISBN: 9789264229945
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (180 p.) , ill.
    Series Statement: PISA
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. L'égalité des sexes dans l'éducation ; Aptitudes, comportement et confiance
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. L'égalité des sexes dans l'éducation
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als The ABC of gender equality in education
    RVK:
    DU 4000
    Keywords: Bildungschancen ; Geschlechterunterschiede ; Schüler ; OECD-Staaten ; Education ; PISA-Studie ; Geschlechtsunterschied ; Schulleistungsmessung
    Abstract: This fascinating compilation of the recent data on gender differences in education presents a wealth of data, analysed from a multitude of angles in a clear and lively way. In particular it looks at underperformance among boys, lack of self confidence among girls and family, school and societal influences before addressing policies to help boys and girls reach their full potential.
    DOI: 10.1787/9789264229945-en
    URL: Volltext
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