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  • 2010-2014  (37)
  • 1985-1989
  • Demirguc-Kunt, Asli  (20)
  • Lin, Justin Yifu  (17)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (37)
  • Leiden : Brill
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Bank Capital and Systemic Stability (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz Bank Capital and Systemic Stability
    Abstract: This paper distinguishes among various types of capital and examines their effect on system-wide fragility. The analysis finds that higher quality forms of capital reduce the systemic risk contribution of banks, whereas lower quality forms can have a destabilizing impact, particularly during crisis periods. The impact of capital on systemic risk is less pronounced for smaller banks, for banks located in countries with more generous safety nets, and in countries with institutions that allow for better public and private monitoring of financial institutions. The results show that regulatory capital is effective in reducing systemic risk and that regulatory risk weights are correlated with higher future asset volatility, but this relationship is significantly weaker for larger banks. The paper also finds that increased regulatory risk-weights not correlated with future asset volatility increase systemic fragility. Overall, the results are consistent with the theoretical literature that emphasizes capital as a potential buffer in absorbing liquidity, information, and economic shocks reducing contagious defaults
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6948
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Does Local Financial Development Matter for Firm Lifecycle in India? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (64 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ayyagari, Meghana Does Local Financial Development Matter for Firm Lifecycle in India?
    Abstract: The differences in financial development across Indian states, while seeming substantial, have a minor effect on firm lifecycle and growth. These results hold controlling for differences in labor regulations across states, capital intensity, and for firms born before and after the major reforms. There is no evidence that firms in financially dependent industries have different lifecycle profiles or grow faster in financially developed states than underdeveloped states. Overall, firms in the formal manufacturing sector grow as they age whereas in the informal sector, firms have a declining lifecycle, but in both cases little evidence is found that financial institutions matter for firm lifecycle. The findings of this paper suggest that size and depth differences in financial development across Indian states are likely dwarfed by overall inefficiencies that characterize state-dominated financial systems, with important implications for the reforms of the Indian financial system going forward
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7008
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Corporate Governance and Bank Insolvency Risk : International Evidence (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz Corporate Governance and Bank Insolvency Risk
    Abstract: This paper finds that shareholder-friendly corporate governance is positively associated with bank insolvency risk, as proxied by the Z-score and the Merton's distance to default measure, for an international sample of banks over the 2004-08 period. Banks are special in that "good" corporate governance increases bank insolvency risk relatively more for banks that are large and located in countries with sound public finances, as banks aim to exploit the financial safety net. Good corporate governance is specifically associated with higher asset volatility, more nonperforming loans, and a lower tangible capital ratio. Furthermore, good corporate governance is associated with more bank risk-taking at times of rapid economic expansion. Consistent with increased risk-taking, good corporate governance is associated with a higher valuation of the implicit insurance provided by the financial safety net, especially in the case of large banks. These results underline the importance of the financial safety net and too-big-to-fail policies in encouraging excessive risk-taking by banks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7017
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Does Corporate Governance Affect Bank Capitalization Strategies? (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz How Does Corporate Governance Affect Bank Capitalization Strategies?
    Abstract: This paper examines how corporate governance and executive compensation affected bank capitalization strategies for an international sample of banks in 2003-2011. "Good" corporate governance, which favors shareholder interests, is found to give rise to lower bank capitalization. Boards of intermediate size, separation of the chief executive officer and chairman roles, and an absence of anti-takeover provisions, in particular, lead to low bank capitalization. However, executive options and stock wealth invested in the bank are associated with better capitalization except just before the crisis in 2006. In that year, stock options wealth was associated with lower capitalization, which suggests that potential gains from taking on more bank risk outweighed the prospect of additional loss. Banks' tendencies to continue payouts to shareholders after experiencing negative income shocks are shown to reflect executive risk-taking incentives
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6636
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Islamic Finance and Financial Inclusion : Measuring Use of and Demand for Formal Financial Services among Muslim Adults (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Islamic Finance and Financial Inclusion
    Abstract: In recent years, the Islamic finance industry has attracted the attention of policy makers and international donors as a possible channel through which to expand financial inclusion, particularly among Muslim adults. Yet cross-country, demand-side data on actual usage and preference gaps in financial services between Muslims and non-Muslims have been scarce. This paper uses novel data to explore the use of and demand for formal financial services among self-identified Muslim adults. In a sample of more than 65,000 adults from 64 economies (excluding countries where less than 1 percent or more than 99 percent of the sample self-identified as Muslim), the analysis finds that Muslims are significantly less likely than non-Muslims to own a formal account or save at a formal financial institution after controlling for other individual- and country-level characteristics. But the analysis finds no evidence that Muslims are less likely than non-Muslims to report formal or informal borrowing. Finally, in an extended survey of adults in five North African and Middle Eastern countries with relatively nascent Islamic finance industries, the study finds little use of Sharia-compliant banking products, although it does find evidence of a hypothetical preference for Sharia-compliant products among a plurality of respondents despite higher costs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6642
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Financial Inclusion and Legal Discrimination against Women : Evidence from Developing Countries (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Financial Inclusion and Legal Discrimination against Women
    Abstract: This paper documents and analyzes gender differences in the use of financial services using individual-level data from 98 developing countries. The data, drawn from the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) database, highlight the existence of significant gender gaps in ownership of accounts and usage of savings and credit products. Even after controlling for a host of individual characteristics including income, education, employment status, rural residency and age, gender remains significantly related to usage of financial services. This study also finds that legal discrimination against women and gender norms may explain some of the cross-country variation in access to finance for women. The analysis finds that in countries where women face legal restrictions in their ability to work, head a household, choose where to live, and receive inheritance, women are less likely to own an account, relative to men, as well as to save and borrow. The results also confirm that manifestations of gender norms, such as the level of violence against women and the incidence of early marriage for women, contribute to explaining the variation in the use of financial services between men and women, after controlling for other individual and country characteristics
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6416
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Rejuvenation of Industrial Policy (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Stiglitz, Joseph E The Rejuvenation of Industrial Policy
    Abstract: This essay is about an important area in which there has been major rethinking-industrial policy, by which the authors mean government policies directed at affecting the economic structure of the economy. The standard argument was that markets were efficient, so there was no need for government to intervene either in the allocation of resources across sectors or in the choices of technique. And even if markets were not efficient, governments were not likely to improve matters. But the 2008-2009 global financial crisis showed that markets were not necessarily efficient and, indeed, there was a broad consensus that without strong government intervention-which included providing lifelines to certain firms and certain industries-the market economies of the United States and Europe may have collapsed. Today, the relevance and pertinence of industrial policies are acknowledged by mainstream economists and political leaders from all sides of the ideological spectrum. But what exactly is industrial policy? Why has it raised so much controversy and confusion? What is the compelling new rationale that seems to bring mainstream economists to acknowledge the crucial importance of industrial policy and revisit some of the fundamental assumptions of economic theory and economic development? How can industrial policy be designed to avoid the pitfalls of some of the seeming past failures and to emulate some of the past successes? What are the contours of the emerging consensus and remaining issues and open questions? The paper addresses these questions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6628
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Explaining Africa's (Dis)advantage : The Curse of Party Monopoly (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (63 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Harrison, Ann E Explaining Africa's (Dis)advantage
    Abstract: Africa's economic performance has been widely viewed with pessimism. This paper uses firm-level data for 89 countries to examine formal firm performance. Without controls, manufacturing African firms do not perform much worse than firms in other regions. But they do have structural problems, exhibiting much lower export intensity and investment rates. Once the analysis controls for geography and the political and business environment, formal African firms robustly lead in sales growth, total factor productivity levels and productivity growth. Africa's conditional advantage is higher in low-tech than in high-tech manufacturing, and exists in manufacturing but not in services. While geography, infrastructure, and access to finance play an important role in explaining Africa's disadvantage in firm performance, the key factor is party monopoly. The longer a single political party remains in power, the lower are firm productivity levels, growth rates, and sales growth for manufacturing. In contrast, the business environment and firm characteristics (except for foreign investment) do not matter as much. The paper also finds evidence that the effects of the political and business environment are heterogeneous across sectors and firms of various levels of technology
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6316
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Size and Age of Establishments : Evidence from Developing Countries (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (77 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ayyagari, Meghana Size and Age of Establishments
    Abstract: Survey data from 120 developing countries are used to examine the relation between establishment size and age in the formal sector. Existing research suggests that manufacturing establishments in developing countries do not grow over time, most likely because of market imperfections and regulations. To the contrary, this paper finds that the average plant in developing countries that is more than 40 years old employs almost five times as many workers as the average plant that is five years old or younger. The analysis finds consistent evidence when it looks within a large country, India, based on detailed manufacturing census data over 23 years. It also finds that differences in financial development across Indian states, while substantial, have a minor effect on firm growth, consistent with inefficiency of state-owned financial systems. These results hold controlling for differences in labor regulations across states, capital intensity, labor regulations, and firms born before and after the major reforms
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6718
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Measuring Financial Inclusion : The Global Findex Database (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Asli Demirguc-Kunt Measuring Financial Inclusion
    Abstract: This paper provides the first analysis of the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) Database, a new set of indicators that measure how adults in 148 economies save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The data show that 50 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a formal financial institution, though account penetration varies widely across regions, income groups and individual characteristics. In addition, 22 percent of adults report having saved at a formal financial institution in the past 12 months, and 9 percent report having taken out a new loan from a bank, credit union or microfinance institution in the past year. Although half of adults around the world remain unbanked, at least 35 percent of them report barriers to account use that might be addressed by public policy. Among the most commonly reported barriers are high cost, physical distance, and lack of proper documentation, though there are significant differences across regions and individual characteristics
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6025
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Learning from China's Rise to Escape the Middle-Income Trap : A New Structural Economics Approach to Latin America (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (63 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu Learning from China's Rise to Escape the Middle-Income Trap
    Abstract: This paper discusses the causes of the middle-income trap in Latin America and the Caribbean, identifies the challenges and opportunities for Latin America that come from China's rise, and draws lessons from New Structural Economics and the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework to help Latin America escape the middle-income trap. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are caught in a middle-income trap due to their inability to structurally upgrade from low value-added to high value-added products. Governments in Latin America and the Caribbean should intervene in industries in which they have a comparative advantage, calibrating supporting policies in close collaboration with the private sector through public-private sector alliances. Through continuous structural upgrading in sectors intensive in factors such as natural resources, scientific knowledge, and unskilled labor, the region could achieve dynamic growth. This would require investments in education, research and development, and physical infrastructure. Therefore, industrial upgrading and diversification would be essential to avoid further de-industrialization arising from the competitive pressures of the rise of China, broaden the base for economic growth, and create the basis for further sustained reduction in unemployment, poverty and income inequality. Failure to do so would lead to a loss of competitiveness and risks of further de-industrialization
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6165
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Does Deposit Insurance Affect Bank Risk? : Evidence from the Recent Crisis (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz How Does Deposit Insurance Affect Bank Risk?
    Abstract: Deposit insurance is widely offered in a number of countries as part of a financial system safety net to promote stability. An unintended consequence of deposit insurance is the reduction in the incentive of depositors to monitor banks, which leads to excessive risk-taking. This paper examines the relation between deposit insurance and bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading to and during the recent financial crisis. It finds that generous financial safety nets increase bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading up to the global financial crisis. However, during the crisis, bank risk is lower and systemic stability is greater in countries with deposit insurance coverage. The findings suggest that the "moral hazard effect" of deposit insurance dominates in good times while the "stabilization effect" of deposit insurance dominates in turbulent times. Nevertheless, the overall effect of deposit insurance over the full sample remains negative since the destabilizing effect during normal times is greater in magnitude compared with the stabilizing effect during global turbulence. In addition, the analysis finds that good bank supervision can alleviate the unintended consequences of deposit insurance on bank systemic risk during good times, suggesting that fostering the appropriate incentive framework is very important for ensuring systemic stability
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6289
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Does Bank Competition Affect Systemic Stability? (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz How Does Bank Competition Affect Systemic Stability?
    Abstract: Using bank level measures of competition and co-dependence, the authors show a robust positive relationship between bank competition and systemic stability. Whereas much of the extant literature has focused on the relationship between competition and the absolute level of risk of individual banks, they examine the correlation in the risk taking behavior of banks, hence systemic risk. They find that greater competition encourages banks to take on more diversified risks, making the banking system less fragile to shocks. Examining the impact of the institutional and regulatory environment on systemic stability shows that banking systems are more fragile in countries with weak supervision and private monitoring, with generous deposit insurance and greater government ownership of banks, and public policies that restrict competition. Furthermore, lack of competition has a greater adverse effect on systemic stability in countries with low levels of foreign ownership, weak investor protections, generous safety nets, and where the authorities provide limited guidance for bank asset diversification
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5981
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  • 14
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Shifting Patterns of Economic Growth and Rethinking Development (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Justin Yifu Lin Shifting Patterns of Economic Growth and Rethinking Development
    Abstract: This paper provides an historical overview of both the evolution of the economic performance of the developing world and the evolution of economic thought on development policy. The 20th century was broadly characterized by divergence between high-income countries and the developing world, with only a limited number (less than 10 percent of the economies in the world) managing to progress out of lower or middle-income status to high-income status. The last decade witnessed a sharp reversal from a pattern of divergence to convergence-particularly for a set of large middle-income countries. The latter phenomenon was also driven by increasing economic ties among developing countries, and on the intellectual scale, increased knowledge generation and sharing among the developing countries. Re-thinking development policy implies confronting these realities: 20th century economic divergence, the experience of the handful of success stories, and the recent rise of the multi-polar growth world. The paper provides descriptive data and a literature survey to document these trends. The paper also provides a brief survey of the role of multilateral institutions-in particular, the World Bank-in this changing context and offers suggestions on how they can adapt their strategies to improve development outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6040
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Reform of the International Monetary System : A Jagged History and Uncertain Prospects (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (62 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Justin Yifu Lin Reform of the International Monetary System
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the historical evolution of the international monetary system in the context of the rising role of developing countries in the world economy and the emerging multi-polar growth setting. It evaluates the stability of the current "non-system" and how the global economic context is likely to affect that stability in the coming years with potential adverse effects on both advanced and developing economies. Given the likely trend toward a multi-polar reserve currency system, the paper evaluates the stability of the emerging system, as well as the current proposals for reform of the international monetary system. The paper concludes that more ambitious reforms of the system may be needed to meaningfully reduce future global economic and financial instability
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6070
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Demystifying China's Fiscal Stimulus (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fardoust, Shahrokh Demystifying China's Fiscal Stimulus
    Abstract: China's government economic stimulus package in 2008-09 appears to have worked well. It seems to have been about the right size, included a number of appropriate components, and was well timed. Its subnational component was designed to maximize the impact of the stimulus package on the economy and minimize the potential procyclical elements that are usually built into subnational fiscal mechanisms in federal countries. Moreover, China's massive fiscal stimulus played an important role in the overall recovery of the global economy. Using a simple analytical framework, this paper focuses on two key factors behind the success of the stimulus: investments in bottleneck-easing infrastructure projects and countercyclical nature of subnational spending based on the assumption that well-chosen infrastructure projects could improve business climate and thereby crowd in the private investment. The paper concludes that the expansionary subnational government spending played a key role in strengthening the overall impact of the stimulus and sustaining growth. It also highlights the importance of public investment quality and cautions about the sustainability of local government financing through the domestic banking system and increases in local governments off balance sheet or contingent liabilities. These lessons may be of particular relevance today for China, as well as other countries, in formulating policy response to another global economic slowdown or crisis, possibly as a result of the Eurozone turmoil. For China, investing in urban infrastructure and green economy, as well as in higher quality and better targeted social services, will be crucial for improving income inequality and inducing a more inclusive growth path
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6221
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  • 17
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Foundations of Financial Inclusion : Understanding Ownership and Use of Formal Accounts (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Allen, Franklin The Foundations of Financial Inclusion
    Abstract: Financial inclusion-defined here as the use of formal accounts-can bring many welfare benefits to individuals. Yet we know very little about the factors underpinning financial inclusion across individuals and countries. Using data for 123 countries and over 124,000 individuals, this paper tries to understand the individual and country characteristics associated with the use of formal accounts and what policies are effective among those most likely to be excluded: the poor and rural residents. The authors find that greater ownership and use of accounts is associated with a better enabling environment for accessing financial services, such as lower account costs and greater proximity to financial intermediaries. Policies targeted to promote inclusion-such as requiring banks to offer basic or low-fee accounts, exempting some depositors from onerous documentation requirements, allowing correspondent banking, and using bank accounts to make government payments-are especially effective among those most likely to be excluded. Finally, the authors study the factors associated with perceived barriers to account ownership among those who are financially excluded and find that these individuals report lower barriers in countries with lower costs of accounts and greater penetration of financial service providers. Overall, the results suggest that policies to reduce barriers to financial inclusion may expand the pool of eligible account users and encourage existing account holders to use their accounts to save and with greater frequency
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6290
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  • 18
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    The Unexpected Global Financial Crisis : Researching Its Root Cause (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (82 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu The Unexpected Global Financial Crisis
    Abstract: The world is currently still struggling with the aftermath of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Following a description of the eruption, evolution and consequences of the global crisis, this paper reviews alternative hypotheses for the causes of the global financial crisis as well as their empirical evidence. The paper refutes the frequently voiced view that the global crisis was caused by global imbalances that reflected economic policies of East Asian countries. Instead, it argues that global imbalances were the result of excess demand in the United States, resulting from both the public debt in the United States arising from the Afghanistan and Iraqi wars and tax cuts and the overconsumption by households supported by the wealth effect from the housing bubble in the United States. The housing bubble itself was the outcome of the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy in the aftermath of the burst of the "dot-com" bubble in 2001, the lack of appropriate financial regulation, and housing policies aimed at expanding the mortgage market to low-income borrowers. It was possible to maintain the large trade deficits of the United States for such a long period of time because of the dollar's reserve currency status. When the housing bubble in the United States burst, the global crisis ensued. The paper also analyzes why China's trade surplus increased significantly in general and with the United States in particular in recent years, and argues that this increase was caused by both the relocation of the labor-intensive tradable sector of East Asian economies to China and high corporate saving rates in China as a result of its dual-track approach to reform
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5937
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  • 19
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    Beyond Keynesianism : Global Infrastructure Investments in Times of Crisis (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu Beyond Keynesianism
    Abstract: As the world recovers only slowly from the 2008 financial crisis and Europe is facing a looming debt crisis, concerns have increased that the "new normal"-a period of high unemployment, low returns on investment, high risks, and low growth-may become protracted in advanced economies. If growth remains weak, unemployment rates and debt levels will be slow to recede. Consequently, the global recovery may continue to be fragile for years to come. What the world needs now is a growth-lifting strategy. This strategy could take the form of a global infrastructure initiative. Since debt levels are high, governments in the United States and Europe could increase demand and support growth through investments in bottleneck-releasing infrastructure projects that are self-financing. An infrastructure initiative should, however, go beyond the borders of advanced countries and include developing countries. Economic and social returns to infrastructure investments tend to be high in developing countries, which have become increasingly important drivers of global growth. At the same time, infrastructure investments require capital goods, most of which are produced in high-income countries. Scaling up infrastructure investment in developing countries could therefore help generate a virtuous cycle in support of a global recovery
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5940
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  • 20
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    Leading Dragons Phenomenon : New Opportunities for Catch-Up in Low-Income Countries (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (60 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Chandra, Vandana Leading Dragons Phenomenon
    Abstract: Modern economic development is accompanied by the structural transformation from an agrarian to an industrial economy and occurs through a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading. Since the 18th century, all countries that industrialized successfully in Europe, North America and East Asia followed their comparative advantage and leveraged the late-comer advantage to emulate the leader-follower flying geese pattern of industrial upgrading. The large dynamic emerging market countries such as China, India and Brazil are also engaged in industrial upgrading but with a critical difference. In particular, because of its sheer size, China has absorbed nearly all labor-intensive jobs and become the world?s largest exporter of labor-intensive products. The current view is that China?s dominance hinders poor countries from developing similar industries. The authors argue that industrial upgrading has increased wages and is causing China to graduate from labor-intensive to more capital- and technology-intensive industries. These industries will shed labor and create a huge opportunity for lower wage countries to start a phase of labor-intensive industrialization. This process, called the Leading Dragon Phenomenon, offers an unprecedented opportunity to low-income Sub-Saharan Africa where the industrial sector is underdeveloped and investment capital and entrepreneurial skills are leading constraints to manufacturing. It can seize the opportunity and resolve the constraints by attracting some of the OFDI flowing currently from China, India and Brazil into the manufacturing sectors of other developing countries. All low-income countries will compete but to catch the jobs spillover from China, the winner must implement credible economic development strategies that are consistent with its comparative advantage
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6000
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  • 21
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    Financing of Firms in Developing Countries : Lessons from Research (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (99 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Meghana Ayyagari Financing of Firms in Developing Countries
    Abstract: This paper reviews and synthesizes theoretical and empirical research on the role of finance in developing countries. First, the paper presents the stylized facts about firms in developing nations as well as the legal, financial and broader institutional framework in which these firms operate. Next, the paper focuses on the financing choices available to small and medium firms in developing countries and highlights areas needing additional research
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6036
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  • 22
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    The Crisis in the Euro Zone : Did the Euro Contribute to the Evolution of the Crisis? (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Justin Yifu Lin The Crisis in the Euro Zone
    Abstract: The simmering sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Zone represents a looming threat to the recovery of the world economy and could lead to a renewed global financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the root causes of the crisis in Europe and assess the extent to which it was driven by the global financial crisis and by factors internal to Europe, notably the adoption of the common currency. Adoption of the euro led to convergence of interest rates in periphery countries to the levels in core countries and, in combination with rising capital inflows owing to greater financial integration, set off a consumption and real estate boom in periphery countries, leading to higher growth and increases in government revenue and spending. The resulting real appreciation led to a loss of competitiveness in periphery countries, adversely affecting export performance and causing rising current account imbalances. While the fiscal position remained manageable before the crisis owing to rising revenue, the recession brought about by the global financial crisis led to the burst of real estate bubbles and a financial sector crisis and to sharply increased budget deficits and worsened debt indicators and triggered the sovereign debt crisis. Core countries, in particular Germany, maintained a competitive edge through wage restraint allowing them to increase exports to periphery countries, while their banks profited from increased lending to non-core countries. In sum, the euro exacerbated intra-European imbalances whose unsustainability became evident in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and triggered the current sovereign debt crisis
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6127
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  • 23
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    Applying the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework : The Case of Nigeria (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu Applying the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework
    Abstract: This paper applies the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework developed by Lin and Monga (2010) to Nigeria. It identifies as appropriate comparator countries China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, and selects a wide range of industries in which these comparator countries may be losing their comparative advantage and which may therefore lend themselves to targeted interventions of the government to fast-track growth. These industries include food processing, light manufacturing, suitcases, shoes, car parts, and petrochemicals. The paper also discusses binding constraints to growth in each of these value chains as well as mechanisms through which governance-related issues in the implementation of industrial policy could be addressed
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5776
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  • 24
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    Has the Global Banking System Become More Fragile over Time? (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz Has the Global Banking System Become More Fragile over Time?
    Abstract: This paper examines time-series and cross-country variations in default risk co-dependence in the global banking system. The authors construct a default risk measure for all publicly traded banks using the Merton contingent claim model, and examine the evolution of the correlation structure of default risk for more than 1,800 banks in more than 60 countries. They find that there has been a significant increase in default risk co-dependence over the three-year period leading to the financial crisis. They also find that countries that are more integrated, and that have liberalized financial systems and weak banking supervision, have higher co-dependence in their banking sector. The results support an increase in scope for intra-national supervisory co-operation, as well as capital charges for "too-connected-to-fail" institutions that can impose significant externalities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5849
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 25
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    Small vs. Young Firms across the World : Contribution to Employment, Job Creation, and Growth (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (59 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ayyagari, Meghana Small vs. Young Firms across the World
    Abstract: This paper describes a unique cross-country database that presents consistent and comparable information on the contribution of the small and medium enterprises sector to total employment, job creation, and growth in 99 countries. The authors compare and contrast the importance of small and medium enterprises to that of young firms across different economies. They find that small firms (in particular, firms with less than 100 employees) and mature firms (in particular, firms older than 10 years) have the largest shares of total employment and job creation. Small firms and young firms have higher job creation rates than large and mature firms. However, large firms and young firms have higher productivity growth. This suggests that while small firms employ a large share of workers and create most jobs in developing economies their contribution to productivity growth is not as high as that of large firms
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5631
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 26
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    From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons
    Abstract: Economic development is a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which any country, regardless of its level of development, can succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with its comparative advantage, determined by its endowment structure. The secret winning formula for developing countries is to exploit the latecomer advantage by building up industries that are growing dynamically in more advanced fast growing countries that have endowment structures similar to theirs. By following carefully selected lead countries, latecomers can emulate the leader-follower, flying-geese pattern that has served well successfully catching-up economies since the 18th century. The emergence of large middle-income countries such as China, India, and Brazil as new growth poles in the world, and their dynamic growth and climbing of the industrial ladder, offer an unprecedented opportunity to all developing economies with income levels currently below theirs-including those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Having itself been a "follower goose," China is on the verge of graduating from low-skilled manufacturing jobs and becoming a "leading dragon." That will free up nearly 100 million labor-intensive manufacturing jobs, enough to more than quadruple manufacturing employment in low-income countries. A similar trend is emerging in other middle-income growth poles. The lower-income countries that can formulate and implement a viable strategy to capture this new industrialization opportunity will set forth on a dynamic path of structural change that can lead to poverty reduction and prosperity
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5702
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 27
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    Marshallian Externality, Industrial Upgrading, and Industrial Policies (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ju, Jiandong Marshallian Externality, Industrial Upgrading, and Industrial Policies
    Abstract: A growth model with multiple industries is developed to study how industries evolve as capital accumulates endogenously when each industry exhibits Marshallian externality (increasing returns to scale) and to explain why industrial policies sometimes succeed but sometimes fail. The authors show that, in the long run, the laissez-faire market equilibrium is Pareto optimal when the time discount rate is sufficiently small or sufficiently large. When the time discount rate is moderate, there exist multiple dynamic market equilibria with diverse patterns of industrial development. To achieve Pareto efficiency, it would require the government to identify the industry target consistent with the comparative advantage and to coordinate in a timely manner, possibly for multiple times. However, industrial policies may make people worse off than in the market equilibrium if the government picks an industry that deviates from the comparative advantage of the economy
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5796
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 28
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    The Evolving Importance of Banks and Securities Markets (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli The Evolving Importance of Banks and Securities Markets
    Abstract: This paper examines the evolving importance of banks and securities markets during the process of economic development. As economies develop, they increase their demand for the services provided by securities markets relative to those provided by banks, such that securities markets become increasingly important for future economic development. Some exploratory evidence further suggests that deviations of a country's actual financial structure-the mixture of banks and markets operating in an economy-from the estimated optimal structure are associated with lower levels of economic activity
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5805
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  • 29
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    Are Banks Too Big To Fail Or Too Big To Save ? : International Evidence From Equity Prices and CDS Spreads (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Are Banks Too Big To Fail Or Too Big To Save ?
    Abstract: Deteriorating public finances around the world raise doubts about countries' abilities to bail out their largest banks. For an international sample of banks, this paper investigates the impact of government indebtedness and deficits on bank stock prices and credit default swap spreads. Overall, bank stock prices reflect a negative capitalization of government debt and they respond negatively to deficits. The authors present evidence that in 2008 systemically large banks saw a reduction in their market valuation in countries running large fiscal deficits. Furthermore, the change in bank credit default swap spreads in 2008 relative to 2007 reflects countries' deterioration of public deficits. The results of the analysis suggest that some systemically important banks can increase their value by downsizing or splitting up, as they have become too big to save, potentially reversing the trend to ever larger banks. The paper also documents that a smaller proportion of banks are systemically important - relative to gross domestic product - in 2008 than in the two previous years, which could reflect private incentives to downsize
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5360
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 30
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    The financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin , Justin Yifu The financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture
    Abstract: The financial crisis arose in the industrial countries, but has affected developing countries through higher interest rates, sharp changes in commodity prices, and reductions in investment, trade, migration and remittances. For most low-income countries, shocks that affect food prices or wage rates for unskilled workers seem likely to have the largest impact on poverty, with the declines in key food prices associated with the crisis helping to reduce poverty, while declining trade, investment, and remittance flows have had adverse impacts on the poor. Policies to address the crisis must include measures to deal with financial sector problems, the resulting reductions in aggregate demand, and the particular vulnerabilities of poor people. Given the complexity of the impacts from financial crises and commodity price shocks, there is a strong case for developing better social safety net policies that can offset the adverse impacts of a wide range of different shocks on poor people without creating costly market distortions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5431
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  • 31
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    New Structural Economics : A Framework for Rethinking Development (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu New Structural Economics
    Abstract: As strategies for achieving sustainable growth in developing countries are re-examined in light of the financial crisis, it is critical to take into account structural change and its corollary, industrial upgrading. Economic literature has devoted a great deal of attention to the analysis of technological innovation, but not enough to these equally important issues. The new structural economics outlined in this paper suggests a framework to complement previous approaches in the search for sustainable growth strategies. It takes the following into consideration: First, an economy's structure of factor endowments evolves from one stage of development to another. Therefore, the optimal industrial structure of a given economy will be different at different stages of development. Each industrial structure requires corresponding infrastructure (both "hard" and "soft") to facilitate its operations and transactions. Second, each stage of economic development is a point along the continuum from a low-income agrarian economy to a high-income industrialized economy, not a dichotomy of two economic development stages ("poor" versus "rich" or "developing" versus "industrialized"). Industrial upgrading and infrastructure improvement targets in developing countries should not necessarily draw from those that exist in high-income countries. Third, at each given stage of development, the market is the basic mechanism for effective resource allocation. However, economic development as a dynamic process requires industrial upgrading and corresponding improvements in "hard" and "soft" infrastructure at each stage. Such upgrading entails large externalities to firms' transaction costs and returns to capital investment. Thus, in addition to an effective market mechanism, the government should play an active role in facilitating industrial upgrading and infrastructure improvements
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5197
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  • 32
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    Growth Identification and Facilitation : The Role of the State in the Dynamics of Structural Change (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu Growth Identification and Facilitation
    Abstract: Active economic policies by developing countries’ governments to promote growth and industrialization have generally been viewed with suspicion by economists, and for good reasons: past experiences show that such policies have too often failed to achieve their stated objectives. But the historical record also indicates that in all successful economies, the state has always played an important role in facilitating structural change and helping the private sector sustain it across time. This paper proposes a new approach to help policymakers in developing countries identify those industries that may hold latent comparative advantage. It also recommends ways of removing binding constraints to facilitate private firms’ entry into those industries. The paper introduces an important distinction between two types of government interventions. First are policies that facilitate structural change by overcoming information and coordination and externality issues, which are intrinsic to industrial upgrading and diversification. Such interventions aim to provide information, compensate for externalities, and coordinate improvements in the "hard" and "soft" infrastructure that are needed for the private sector to grow in sync with the dynamic change in the economy’s comparative advantage. Second are those policies aimed at protecting some selected firms and industries that defy the comparative advantage determined by the existing endowment structure-either in new sectors that are too advanced or in old sectors that have lost comparative advantage
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5313
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  • 33
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    The Growth Report and New Structural Economics (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Monga, Celestin The Growth Report and New Structural Economics
    Abstract: Despite its heavy human, financial, and economic cost, the recent global recession provides a unique opportunity to reflect on the knowledge from several decades of growth research, draw policy lessons from the experience of successful countries, and explore new approaches going forward. In an increasingly globalized world where fighting poverty is not only a moral responsibility but also a strategy for confronting some of the major problems (diseases, malnutrition, insecurity and violence) that ignore boundaries and contribute to global insecurity, thinking about new ways of generating and sustaining growth is a crucial task for economists. This paper reassesses the evolution of knowledge on growth and suggests a new structural approach to the analysis. It offers a brief, critical review of lessons learned from growth research and examines the remaining challenges - especially from the policy standpoint. It highlights how the 2008 Growth Commission Report identifies the stylized facts associated with sustained and inclusive growth. And it explains how the new structural economics provides a consistent framework for understanding the key findings of the Report
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5336
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  • 34
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    Are Innovating Firms Victims Or Perpetrators? : Tax Evasion, Bribe Payments, and the Role of External Finance in Developing Countries (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Are Innovating Firms Victims Or Perpetrators?
    Abstract: This paper investigates corruption and tax evasion and their firm-level determinants across 25,000 firms in 57 countries, a large fraction of which are small and medium enterprises in developing countries. Firms that pay more bribes also evade more taxes. Corruption acts as a tax on innovation, particularly that of small and young firms. Innovating firms pay a larger percentage of their revenues in bribes to government officials than non-innovating firms. They do not, however, pay more protection money to private parties than other firms. Comparing the magnitudes of bribes and taxes evaded, innovating firms and firms that use formal finance are more likely to be net victims. The findings point to the challenges facing innovators in developing countries and the role of banks in curbing corruption and tax evasion
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5389
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  • 35
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    Bank capital : lessons from the financial crisis (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Bank capital
    Abstract: Using a multi-country panel of banks, the authors study whether better capitalized banks fared better in terms of stock returns during the financial crisis. They differentiate among various types of capital ratios: the Basel risk-adjusted ratio; the leverage ratio; the Tier I and Tier II ratios; and the common equity ratio. They find several results: (i) before the crisis, differences in capital did not affect subsequent stock returns; (ii) during the crisis, higher capital resulted in better stock performance, most markedly for larger banks and less well-capitalized banks; (iii) the relationship between stock returns and capital is stronger when capital is measured by the leverage ratio rather than the risk-adjusted capital ratio; (iv) there is evidence that higher quality forms of capital, such as Tier 1 capital, were more relevant. They also examine the relationship between bank capitalization and credit default swap (CDS) spreads
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5473
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  • 36
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    Islamic vs. conventional banking : business model, efficiency and stability (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Islamic vs. conventional banking
    Abstract: This paper discusses Islamic banking products and interprets them in the context of financial intermediation theory. Anecdotal evidence shows that many of the conventional products can be redrafted as Sharia-compliant products, so that the differences are smaller than expected. Comparing conventional and Islamic banks and controlling for other bank and country characteristics, the authors find few significant differences in business orientation, efficiency, asset quality, or stability. While Islamic banks seem more cost-effective than conventional banks in a broad cross-country sample, this finding reverses in a sample of countries with both Islamic and conventional banks. However, conventional banks that operate in countries with a higher market share of Islamic banks are more cost-effective but less stable. There is also consistent evidence of higher capitalization of Islamic banks and this capital cushion plus higher liquidity reserves explains the relatively better performance of Islamic banks during the recent crisis
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5446
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 37
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    A framework for analyzing competition in the banking sector : An application to the case of Jordan (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli A framework for analyzing competition in the banking sector
    Abstract: This paper proposes a framework to analyze competition in the banking sector using Jordan as an example. In particular, the paper pursues a multi-pronged approach to analyze competition including (i) an examination of the extent to which the market is contestable (that is, has low barriers to bank entry and exit), (b) an evaluation of the behavior of bank spreads, and (iii) an assessment of nonstructural and direct measures of bank competition such as the H-statistic and the Lerner Index. This approach provides a more comprehensive framework to examine competition in the banking sector, compared with the commonly used alternative of looking only at bank concentration figures. In the case of Jordan, the analysis indicates that although concentration has declined, competition in the country is low and has decreased over time
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5499
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