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  • 2005-2009  (4)
  • Bogetic, Zeljko  (4)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (4)
  • Cham : Springer International Publishing AG
  • Economic Theory and Research  (4)
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (26 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bogetic, Zeljko Achieving Accelerated And Shared Growth In Ghana
    Keywords: Development Economics ; Development Goals ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human capital ; Human development ; Macroeconomic stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy ReseaRch ; Policy packages ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Rapid growth ; Unskilled labor ; Development Economics ; Development Goals ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human capital ; Human development ; Macroeconomic stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy ReseaRch ; Policy packages ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Rapid growth ; Unskilled labor ; Development Economics ; Development Goals ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human capital ; Human development ; Macroeconomic stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy ReseaRch ; Policy packages ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Rapid growth ; Unskilled labor
    Abstract: This paper relies on the recently developed Maquette for Millennium Development Goals Simulations (MAMS) model to assess the consistency of alternative scaling-up and policy packages for growth and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals in Ghana. In the baseline scenario, Ghana's strong near and medium-term growth outlook puts it in a good position to achieve the poverty Millennium Development Goal ahead of schedule, but other goals are likely to remain elusive before 2015. In the accelerated growth scenario-which addresses the major gaps in water and sanitation and other infrastructure-even more rapid growth and poverty reduction are possible, but important targets in the areas of education, health, and environment remain unattainable. Although growth is complementary to achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, the authors also find important growth-human development trade-offs in the near term. The estimates show that the resource requirements for achieving the key Millennium Development Goals by 2015 are large, reaching US
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (37 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bogetic, Zeljko Cote D'ivoire Volatility, Shocks And Growth
    Keywords: Access to Markets ; Agriculture ; Cocoa Price ; Cocoa Prices ; Coffee Prices ; Commodity Prices ; Cotton Prices ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Power ; Markets and Market Access ; Price Indices ; Private Sector Development ; Volatility ; World Markets ; Access to Markets ; Agriculture ; Cocoa Price ; Cocoa Prices ; Coffee Prices ; Commodity Prices ; Cotton Prices ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Power ; Markets and Market Access ; Price Indices ; Private Sector Development ; Volatility ; World Markets ; Access to Markets ; Agriculture ; Cocoa Price ; Cocoa Prices ; Coffee Prices ; Commodity Prices ; Cotton Prices ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Power ; Markets and Market Access ; Price Indices ; Private Sector Development ; Volatility ; World Markets
    Abstract: Key economic variables in Cote d'Ivoire vary widely from their long-run trends, moving in multi-year cyclical patterns. Cocoa prices move with cycles in growth rates, capital stock, real exchange rates, terms of trade, cocoa production, and coffee production and output. These patterns have become more pronounced since the 1970s as volatility increased. This paper characterize these cycles, estimates the cocoa price-quantity relationship, and analyzes co-movements due to shocks generate a forecast. Three key conclusions follow. First, the economy of Cote d'Ivoire has experienced two fundamental transitions, one in 1976 related to cocoa, and another in 1994 related to exchange rates. From 1960 to 1976, world cocoa prices grew steadily, and then fell in real terms. The country's growth showed a similar pattern. An econometric model indicates that the relationship between cocoa price and quantity experienced a break in 1976 and provides evidence of Cote d'Ivoire's significant influence on world cocoa prices. Second, cocoa price shocks affect growth rates and trade indicators, and are important sources of volatility in the Cote d'Ivoire. The terms of trade and real exchange rate are also sources of volatility for growth and productivity. Third, a forecast of per-worker output based on these variables predicts continued declines in GDP per worker in Cote d'Ivoire for the near future. This dismal forecast implies the need for a radical and rapid improvement on political, security, and economic management to reverse the two and a half decades of economic decline
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (45 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bogetic, Zeljko Cote d'Ivoire
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Economic Growth ; Economic History ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Human Capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Overvaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Productivity ; Real GDP ; Total Factor Productivity ; Total Factor Productivity Analysis ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Economic Growth ; Economic History ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Human Capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Overvaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Productivity ; Real GDP ; Total Factor Productivity ; Total Factor Productivity Analysis ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Economic Growth ; Economic History ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Human Capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Overvaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Productivity ; Real GDP ; Total Factor Productivity ; Total Factor Productivity Analysis
    Abstract: Real GDP per capita and capital stock in Cote d'Ivoire grew strongly from 1960 to 1979, but have declined ever since, for twenty-five years. As a result, the country has traveled a full circle from economic success to failure in little more than a generation. What are the long-term factors behind this dismal growth story? Are the Ivorian development problems mostly of recent origin? Or there are more fundamental, economic factors that explain its long term performance? Four principal conclusions are as follows: First, Cote d'Ivoire's long-term growth performance is not fully explained by temporary factors (e.g., CFA overvaluation or recent conflict). Longer term factors such as capital accumulation, productivity, and terms of trade are key to understanding the country's performance as is the policy of specialization in a single commodity--cocoa. Second, the long-term decline in per capita output started well before the currency overvaluation, and at a time of political stability, and is related to a major, secular deterioration in terms of trade that started after 1976. Third, total factor productivity estimates indicate that TFP per capita also grew until it hit a plateau in 1976-78, and then shrank thereafter, despite gains in human capital accumulation. Fourth, Cote d'Ivoire has pursued a policy of specialization in cocoa beans but this bet on a single commodity has ultimately failed. The strategy that brought prosperity during the 1970s resulted in a growth failure when cocoa prices began declining since 1976
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bogetic, Zeljko Cote d'Ivoire
    Keywords: Competitiveness ; Consumer Price Indices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Deflators ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP Deflator ; Gross Domestic Product ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Trade Competitiveness ; Value Added ; Wages ; Competitiveness ; Consumer Price Indices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Deflators ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP Deflator ; Gross Domestic Product ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Trade Competitiveness ; Value Added ; Wages ; Competitiveness ; Consumer Price Indices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Deflators ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP Deflator ; Gross Domestic Product ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Trade Competitiveness ; Value Added ; Wages
    Abstract: This paper explores competitiveness of Cote d'Ivoire's economy over a long period of 1960-2003 and its link with cocoa prices. The main conclusions are as follows. First, using four measures of real effective exchange rate (REER) for the 1960-2002 period, we track the evolution of REER and conclude, inter alia, that until 2003, REER remained well below its 1994 level. Second, we find that based on our measure of the multilateral REER with dynamic weights, which covers most recorded trade, France no longer dominates Cote d'Ivoire's trade. Instead, Cote d'Ivoire has diversified its set of trading partners. Unfortunately, it has also specialized in one export product, raw cocoa. This paper aims to contribute to the question to what extent do cocoa prices affect Cote d'Ivoire's competitiveness in world trade? Third, the answer to this question is that cocoa prices are an important determinant of Cote d'Ivoire's competitiveness. Similar to the case of a classic "Dutch Disease," increases in the real world price of a "natural resource" (i.e., cocoa) tend to result in the appreciation of the CFA franc and a loss in competitiveness. Econometric tests further confirm that 1994 was a "break-point" not only for growth and productivity (as documented in the two related papers) but also for trade competitiveness. Recent productivity per worker trends versus wages also seem to indicate slow growth in 1996-2000, without major improvement in competitiveness
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