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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Floreani, Vincent A Costing Disasters: Hedonic Pricing, Neighborhood Effects, and the Nepal Gorkha Earthquakes
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics ; Earthquakes ; Environment ; Hedonic Price ; Housing Prices ; Imputed Rent ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microsimulation ; Natural Disaster ; Natural Disasters ; Neighborhood Effects ; Spatial Economics ; Welfare
    Abstract: Disasters are frequent and clearly harmful in developing countries, but precisely estimating their overall cost and distributional impact is challenging. This paper proposes a microsimulation approach to do so rapidly, borrowing concepts from both poverty analysis and urban economics. Because housing prices reflect the present value of a specific bundle of living conditions, local earnings opportunities, and local access to services, their change in the aftermath of a disaster can be interpreted as a measure of the welfare cost incurred by households. A hedonic pricing function is used to estimate such changes based on the destruction experienced by the dwellings themselves, but also on the overall destruction suffered by their surrounding areas. The first element captures the damage from worse living conditions, whereas the second captures the loss from diminished earnings opportunities and access to services. The proposed approach is illustrated by estimating the cost of the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal. Overall, the estimated impact is comparable to that from the official assessment. But its spatial distribution is significantly different due to the pivotal influence of neighborhood effects
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rama, Martin What Lies behind "Good" Analytical Work on Development? Four Years of Knowledge Products at the World Bank
    Keywords: Academic Impact ; Academic Research ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Research Output ; World Bank Group Research
    Abstract: The World Bank's analytical work has a strong reputation, but its knowledge products are also perceived to be of varying quality and relevance, and the drivers of this heterogeneity are only partially understood. Building on previous evaluations, this paper adopts a production function approach to assess how budget resources, time to completion, technical skills, and institutional responsibilities affect the internal ratings and external visibility of different types of analytical tasks at the World Bank. To this effect, the paper first matches records from three unconnected electronic platforms -- for internal documents, budget codes, and external publications -- to assemble a comprehensive database of knowledge products and their key characteristics. With analytical documents as its unit of observation, the exercise shows that: (1) devoting more resources to analytical tasks leads to both better ratings and greater visibility; (2) both outcomes are systematically worse when a greater share of resources comes from trust funds; (3) they are also consistently worse for tasks that take longer to complete; (4) more academically oriented team leaders underperform on ratings and overperform on visibility, whereas technically solid but less stellar team leaders overperform on ratings; and (5) everything else equal, performance varies systematically with the nature of the unit in charge. The findings of the paper can be read as a cautionary note against knowledge management that is based on the counting of analytical tasks. Instead, the findings call for much stronger information systems on knowledge products, a better alignment of incentives for the units in charge, and regular evaluations in the spirit of this paper
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (274 pages)
    Series Statement: Urban Development
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Charter Cities ; Competitive Cities ; Infrastructure ; Local Development ; New Cities ; Private Cities ; Urban Economics ; Urban Planning
    Abstract: Institutional constraints and weak capacity often hamper the ability of local governments in developing countries to steer urbanization. As a result, there are not enough cities to accommodate an unabated rural-urban migration and many of those that exist are messy, sprawling, and disconnected. The flipside is the emergence of entire cities--more than gated communities or industrial parks--led in whole or in part by private actors. To date, little systematic research has been conducted on the conditions that are necessary for such unusual entities to emerge, on the roles played by private actors, or on the consequences for efficiency and equity. 'Private Cities: Outstanding Examples from Developing Countries and Their Implications for Urban Policy' aims to fill this gap. Using an analytical framework that draws on urban economics and political science, it includes inventories of private cities in the Arab Republic of Egypt, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan and provides structured reviews of 14 outstanding examples across all developing regions. Nongovernment actors turn out to be diverse--they include not only major companies and large developers but also business associations, civil society organizations, and even foreign countries. The way local governments interact with these nongovernment actors varies as well, from deliberate neglect to joint ventures. Private actors take on some--but not all--local government functions, while at times embracing unconventional roles. And while private cities tend to be economically successful, they can lead to environmental degradation, social segregation, and even institutional secession. Increasing the capacity of local governments in developing countries will take time.Along the way, inefficient spatial development patterns may be locked inches There is a case for selectively tapping into the comparative advantage of significant private actors while actively using policy tools to avoid the potential shortcomings. In the spirit of a publicprivate partnership for urbanization, land value capture would be at the center of this approach
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ezran, Irene Measuring Global Economic Activity Using Air Pollution
    Keywords: GDP Accuracy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth, Economic Forecasting, Nitrogen Dioxide ; Measurement of Economic Activity ; Night Lights ; No2 Air Pollution Indicator
    Abstract: This paper uses satellite readings of nitrogen (NO2) air pollution, a byproduct of combustion, to improve the measurement of global economic activity. The proposed approach improves upon night light measures for countries where data manipulation, conflict, or other factors have led to poor national accounts. The paper also shows that existing country rankings of gross domestic product accuracy over the past 15 years are unreliable, even among advanced economies. For example, the paper shows that during COVID, in France, the UK and Spain gross domestic product in 2020 was underreported by 76, 181, and 205 basis points respectively. The methodological contribution extends previous Error-Measurement frameworks which, suffer from error-in-variables biases, with an objective, data-driven identification strategy exploiting the plausibly orthogonal measurement errors between nitrogen dioxide and night lights, which are measured at different times
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Health, Nutrition and Population ; Intellectual Property Rights ; Pharmaceutical Industry ; Pharmaceuticals and Pharmacoeconomics ; Public Health Promotion ; Public Procurement
    Abstract: Pharmaceutical products have contributed to longer life expectancy and better quality of life in Latin America and the Caribbean. However, they often account for a significant share of household expenditures, especially among the poor and those facing catastrophic health shocks. And they are not always accessible, as dramatically exposed by the Covid-19 pandemic. This mixed record can be linked to the workings of the pharmaceutical sector, an issue that has not received much attention in policy discussions. This paper identifies the sector's key domestic and foreign players, and analyzes its local output, international trade, and price levels. It also documents government policies, including intellectual property rights, regulatory oversight, and public procurement. An important contribution of the paper is to show the significant scientific capacity of the region, especially in relation to biological products - including vaccines - whose intrinsic heterogeneity challenges intellectual property rights protection. Based on this diagnosis, the paper flags three sets of issues for policy makers to consider. Relatively uncontroversial measures include strengthening regulatory authorities, promoting the use of generics, and upgrading public procurement. Other areas, such as supporting R and D and regulating prices, involve tradeoffs. Finally, there are strategic choices to be made, with some countries in the region favoring stringent intellectual property rights, while others support national champions or rely on state entrepreneurship
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: India is uniquely placed to help reduce global poverty and boost prosperity. The country has the largest number of poor people in the world, as well are the largest number of people who have recently escaped poverty. There is an emerging middle class but the majority of people are still vulnerable to falling back into poverty. What lessons do the past two decades offer for what it will take for the country to sustain progress and bring about deeper changes? This synthesis brings together the key insights from extensive and in-depth research conducted by the World Bank on India's experience in reducing poverty and sharing prosperity over the last two decades. The beginning chapter of the synthesis offers an overview of the trends in living standards and mobility in India. This is followed by a chapter on the main drivers of poverty reduction. The third chapter sheds light on some of the gaps India needs to fill for sustaining mobility and spreading prosperity more widely
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Floreani, Vincent A Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition
    Abstract: Despite record economic growth for more than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at the household level in 2011. Provincial data show that higher levels of conflict were positively correlated with both a larger presence of troops (international and Afghan) and larger aid flows. Household data show that the negative impact of conflict on consumption was more than offset by the positive impact of aid and troops. According to the estimates, Afghan troops contributed more to poverty reduction than international troops, possibly because they spent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models to conduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing on the transition initiated in 2014. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannot account for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershed political developments. But they suggest that the reduction in the number of international troops and declining foreign aid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and a decline in consumption per capita, matching current trends
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (1 pages)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Abstract: Bhutan's hydropower generation potential raises the prospect of tremendous development opportunities for the country: fast increasing export revenue, sustained economic growth, and rapid poverty reduction. Driven by developments in the hydropower sector, the country has grown at an average rate of 7 percent per year over the last decade, while poverty has declined remarkably fast. But hydropower development also creates significant challenges as follows: (i) macroeconomic instability; (ii) lack of self-reliance; and (iii) few private sector jobs. This policy note assesses the opportunities and challenges associated with hydropower development. It informs a possible strategy supportive of macroeconomic stability, fiscal self-reliance and private sector development. And it argues that fundamental changes in public finance, amounting to a paradigm shift, are central to the implementation of such strategy
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Li, Yue Households or Locations? Cities, Catchment Areas and Prosperity in India
    Abstract: Policy makers in developing countries, including India, are increasingly sensitive to the links between spatial transformation and economic development. However, the empirical knowledge available on those links is most often insufficient to guide policy decisions. There is no shortage of case studies on urban agglomerations of different sorts, or of benchmarking exercises for states and districts, but more systematic evidence is scarce. To help address this gap, this paper combines insights from poverty analysis and urban economics, and develops a methodology to assess spatial performance with a high degree of granularity. This methodology is applied to India, where individual household survey records are mapped to "places" (both rural and urban) below the district level. The analysis disentangles the contributions household characteristics and locations make to labor earnings, proxied by nominal household expenditure per capita. The paper shows that one-third of the variation in predicted labor earnings is explained by the locations where households reside and by the interaction between these locations and household characteristics such as education. In parallel, this methodology provides a workable metric to describe spatial productivity patterns across India. The paper shows that there is a gradation of spatial performance across places, rather than a clear rural-urban divide. It also finds that distance matters: places with higher productivity are close to each other, but some spread their prosperity over much broader areas than others. Using the spatial distribution of this metric across India, the paper further classifies places at below-district level into four tiers: top locations, their catchment areas, average locations, and bottom locations. The analysis finds that some small cities are among the top locations, while some large cities are not. It also finds that top locations and their catchment areas include many high-performing rural places, and are not necessarily more unequal than average locations. Preliminary analysis reveals that these top locations and their catchment areas display characteristics that are generally believed to drive agglomeration economies and contribute to faster productivity growth
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 10
    Language: Undetermined
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Chatterjee, Urmila Job Opportunities along the Rural-Urban Gradation and Female Labor Force Participation in India
    Abstract: The recent decline in India's rural female labor force participation is generally attributed to higher rural incomes in a patriarchal society. Together with the growing share of the urban population, where female participation rates are lower, this alleged income effect does not bode well for the empowerment of women as India develops. This paper argues that a traditional supply-side interpretation is insufficient to account for the decline in female participation rates, and the transformation of the demand for labor at local levels needs to be taken into account as well. A salient trait of this period is the collapse in the number of farming jobs without a parallel emergence of other employment opportunities considered suitable for women. The paper develops a novel approach to capture the structure of employment at the village or town level, and allow for differences along six ranks in the rural-urban gradation. It also considers the possible misclassification of urban areas as rural, as a result of household surveys lagging behind India's rapid urbanization process. The results show that the place of residence along the rural-urban gradation loses relevance as an explanation of female labor force participation once local job opportunities are taken into account. Robustness checks confirm that the main findings hold even when taking into account the possibility of spurious correlation and endogeneity. They also hold under alternative definitions of labor force participation and when sub-samples of women are considered. Simulations suggest that for India to reverse the decline in female labor force participation rates it needs to boost job creation
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (17 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ikeda, Yuki Advanced-Country Policies and Emerging-Market Currencies
    Abstract: The global financial crisis and its aftermath have triggered extraordinary policy responses in advanced countries. The impacts of these policy responses-from asset price bubbles to currency depreciations-have often been felt in the developing world. As tapering talk evolves into actual withdrawal of quantitative easing in the United States, and as the Euro Zone launches its own quantitative easing program, there are good reasons to be concerned about the financial stability of emerging economies. India's experience with U.S. tapering offers insights into what to expect. This paper estimates the contribution of external and domestic factors to short-term fluctuations in the value of the Indian rupee between 2004 and 2014, using a rich dynamic model that controls for a large number of exchange rate determinants. The paper finds that a global surprise factor, more than domestic vulnerabilities, was the main driver of the large rupee depreciation in summer 2013. With the surprise factor gone, further normalization of U.S. monetary policy is unlikely to have significant effects on the rupee exchange rate
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Vietnam has navigated the global crisis better than many other countries. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.3 percent in 2009, accelerating to 6.9 percent in the last quarter of the year. At 5.8 percent, the figure for the first quarter of 2010 was less impressive, but claims that growth has slowed down are most probably unwarranted. More recently, a sizeable stimulus package, combining tax rebates and exemptions with increased government spending and rapid credit growth succeeded at supporting domestic demand and sustaining economic growth. The success is all the more remarkable given that exports accounted for roughly 67 percent of GDP when the crisis hit. There has been no banking crisis, but two years of macroeconomic turbulence and policy shifts created risks for the banking system. The desire for an early normalization of interest rates is understandable. But if pursued aggressively it could be easily interpreted as a return to aggressive stimulus policies, thus undermining the still frail confidence in the dong. Combined with stronger macroeconomic management, it should be possible for Vietnam to gradually free itself from the 'stop-and-go' cycle that has characterized macroeconomic policies over the last three years
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (52 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Rama, Martin The Sri Lankan Unemployment Problem Revisited
    Keywords: Educational Attainment ; Export Processing Zones ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; High Unemployment ; High Unemployment Rate ; Job ; Job Security ; Labor ; Labor Force ; Labor Market ; Labor Market Participants ; Labor Market Policies ; Labor Markets ; Labor Study ; Management ; Private Sector ; Private Sector Activities ; Public Sector Jobs ; Social Protections and Labor ; Unemployed ; Unemployment ; Unemployment Problem ; Unemployment Rates ; Educational Attainment ; Export Processing Zones ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; High Unemployment ; High Unemployment Rate ; Job ; Job Security ; Labor ; Labor Force ; Labor Market ; Labor Market Participants ; Labor Market Policies ; Labor Markets ; Labor Study ; Management ; Private Sector ; Private Sector Activities ; Public Sector Jobs ; Social Protections and Labor ; Unemployed ; Unemployment ; Unemployment Problem ; Unemployment Rates
    Abstract: November 1999 - Unemployment in Sri Lanka is largely voluntary. The underlying problem is not a shortage of jobs but the artificial gap between good jobs and bad ones. Policy efforts should be aimed at reducing the gap between good and bad jobs by making product markets more competitive, reducing excessive job security, and reforming government policies on pay and employment. Sri Lanka's high unemployment rate has been attributed to a mismatch of skills, to queuing for public sector jobs, and to stringent job security regulations. But the empirical evidence supporting these explanations is weak. Rama takes a fresh look at the country's unemployment problem, using individual records from the 1995 Labor Force Survey and time series for wages in the economy's formal and informal sectors. He assesses, and rejects, the skills mismatch hypothesis by comparing the impact of educational attainment on the actual wages of those who have a job with the effect on the lowest acceptable wages of the unemployed. However, he finds substantial rents associated with jobs in the public sector and in private sector activities protected by high tariffs or covered by job security regulations. A time-series analysis of the impact of unemployment on wage increases across sectors supports the hypothesis that most of the unemployed are waiting for good job openings but are not interested in readily available bad jobs. In short, unemployment in Sri Lanka is largely voluntary. The problem is not a shortage of jobs but the artificial gap between good and bad jobs. Policy efforts should be aimed at reducing the gap between good and bad jobs by making product markets more competitive, by reducing excessive job security, and by reforming government policies on pay and employment. This paper was written as part of a broader labor study undertaken by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, South Asia Region. The study was also supported by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project The Impact of Labor Market Policies and Institutions on Economic Performance (RPO 680-96). The author may be contacted at mramaworldbank.org
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