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  • English  (39)
  • 1995-1999  (39)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (39)
  • Cham : Springer International Publishing AG
  • Currencies and Exchange Rates  (39)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Has Regionalism in the 1990s Affected Trade? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Soloaga, Isidro How Has Regionalism in the 1990s Affected Trade?
    Keywords: Andean Pact ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Extra-Bloc Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Geographical Patterns Of Trade ; Gravity Equation ; Gravity Model ; Gravity Models ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Patterns Of Trade ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Preferential Trade Area ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Trade ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Effects ; Trade Flows ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Andean Pact ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Extra-Bloc Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Geographical Patterns Of Trade ; Gravity Equation ; Gravity Model ; Gravity Models ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Patterns Of Trade ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Preferential Trade Area ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Trade ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Effects ; Trade Flows ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: August 1999 - The results of a modified gravity model suggest that the new wave of regionalism has not boosted intra-bloc trading significantly. Trade liberalization in Latin America did have a positive impact on the imports of bloc members, although MERCOSUR's exports did poorly over the mid-1990s. Soloaga and Winters apply a gravity model to data on annual nonfuel imports for 58 countries for the years 1980-96, to quantify the effects on trade of recently created or revamped preferential trade agreements (PTAs). They modify the usual gravity equation to identify the separate effects of PTAs on intra-bloc trade, members' total imports, and members' total exports. They also formally test the significance of changes in the estimated coefficients before and after the blocs' formation. Their estimates give no indication that the new wave of regionalism boosted intra-bloc trade significantly. They found convincing evidence of trade diversion only for the European Union and the European Free Trade Association. For the same blocs they also observed export diversion, which would be consistent with these blocs' imposing a welfare cost on the rest of the world. Trade liberalization efforts in Latin America have had a positive impact on the imports of bloc members (Andean Group, Central American Common Market, Latin American Integration Association, and MERCOSUR). Increasing propensities to export generally accompanied increasing propensities to import, suggesting that general trade liberalization had a strong effect. The exception was MERCOSUR, for which import and export propensities displayed opposite movements, with exports performing worse than expected over the mid-1990s. Although MERCOSUR members have undoubtedly liberalized since the mid-1980s, these results suggest that their trade performance has been influenced more by competitiveness than by trade policy. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the effects of regional integration. The authors may be contacted at isoloagaworldbank.org or l.a.winters@sussex.ac.uk
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  • 2
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    Online Resource
    Will the Real Natural Trading Partner Please Stand Up? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (29 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schiff, Maurice Will the Real Natural Trading Partner Please Stand Up?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Unions ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Agreements ; Free Trade Areas ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Perfect Competition ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreement ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regional Trade ; Tariff ; Tariff Revenues ; Trade ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Transport Costs ; Volume Of Trade ; World Trade ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Unions ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Agreements ; Free Trade Areas ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Perfect Competition ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreement ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regional Trade ; Tariff ; Tariff Revenues ; Trade ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Transport Costs ; Volume Of Trade ; World Trade
    Abstract: August 1999 - Adherents of the natural trading partner hypothesis argue that preferential trade agreements are more likely to improve welfare if participating countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents argue the opposite. Neither side is right. The hypothesis holds up only if two countries are natural trading partners in the sense that one country tends to import what the other exports. Adherents of the natural trading partner hypothesis argue that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are more likely to improve welfare if participating countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents of the hypothesis claim that the opposite is true: welfare gains are likely to be greater if participating countries trade less with each other. Schiff shows that neither analysis is correct. The natural trading partner hypothesis can be rescued if it is redefined in terms of complementarity or substitutability in the trade relations of countries, rather than in terms of their volume of trade. Schiff asks not whether a country should form or join a trading bloc but which partner or partners it should select if it does join such a bloc. He shows that the pre-PTA volume of trade is not a useful criterion for selecting a partner. The pre-PTA volume is equal to zero if the partner is an importer of the good sold to the home country and it is indeterminate if the partner is an exporter of that good. Among Schiff's conclusions: ° The home country is better off with a large partner country. First, a large partner is more likely to satisfy the home country's import demand at the world price. Second, the home country is likely to gain more on its exports to a large partner country, because that partner is likely to continue importing from the world market after formation of the trading bloc. And since the partner charges a tariff on imports from the world market, the home country is more likely to improve its terms of trade by selling to the partner at the higher tariff-inclusive price if the partner is large. ° The PTA as a whole is likely to be better off if each country imports what the other exports (rather than each country importing what the other imports). Losses are similar but less likely, while gains are both more likely and the same or larger. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the economics of regional integration. The author may be contacted at mschiffworldbank.org
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  • 3
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    A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (70 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area
    Keywords: Access ; Capital Goods ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Industries ; Domestic Production ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Factor Endowments ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Import Competition ; Intermediate Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Openness ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tariff ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regime ; Unilateral Liberalization ; Access ; Capital Goods ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Industries ; Domestic Production ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Factor Endowments ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Import Competition ; Intermediate Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Openness ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tariff ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regime ; Unilateral Liberalization
    Abstract: November 1999 - The static economic benefits of Vietnam's accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) are likely to be relatively small. The gains from increased access to ASEAN markets would be small, and they would be offset by the costs of trade diversion on the import side. But binding commitments on protection rates under the AFTA plan could provide an important stepping stone to more beneficial broader liberalization. Vietnam's accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) has been an important step in its integration into the world economy. Fukase and Martin use a multiregion, multisector computable general equilibrium model to evaluate how different trade liberalization policies of Vietnam and its main trading partners affect Vietnam's welfare, taking into account the simultaneous impacts on trade, output, and industrial structure. They conclude that: · The static economywide effects of the AFTA liberalization to which Vietnam is currently committed are small. On the import side, the exclusion of a series of products from the AFTA commitments appears to limit the scope of trade creation, and the discriminatory nature of AFTA liberalization would divert Vietnam's trade from non-ASEAN members. · Vietnam's small initial exports to ASEAN make the gains from improved access to partner markets relatively modest. Since Singapore dominates Vietnam's ASEAN exports and initial protection in Singapore is close to zero, there are few gains from preferred status in this market. · When Vietnam extends its AFTA commitments to all of its trading partners on a most favored nation basis, its welfare increases substantially - partly because of the greater extent of liberalization, partly because the broader liberalization undoes the costly trade diversion created by the initial discriminatory liberalization, and finally because of the more efficient allocation of resources among Vietnam's industries. · AFTA, APEC, and unilateral liberalizations affect Vietnam's industries in different ways. AFTA appears to benefit Vietnam's agriculture by improving its access to the ASEAN market. · Broad unilateral liberalization beyond AFTA is likely to shift labor away from agriculture and certain import-competing activities toward relatively labor-intensive manufacturing. Reduced costs for intermediate inputs will benefit domestic production. These sectors conform to Vietnam's current comparative advantage, and undertaking broad unilateral liberalization now seems a promising way to facilitate the subsequent development of competitive firms in more capital- and skill-intensive sectors. By contrast, more intense import competition may lead some import substitution industries (now dependent on protection) to contract. · The higher level of welfare resulting from more comprehensive liberalization implies that the sectoral protection currently given to capital-intensive and strategic industries is imposing substantial implicit taxes on the rest of the economy. · All the above suggests that AFTA should be treated as an important initial step toward broader liberalization. Binding international commitments in AFTA and, in due course, at the World Trade Organization can provide a credible signal of Vietnam's commitment to open trade policies that will help stimulate the upgrading of existing firms and investment in efficient and dynamic firms. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - was prepared as part of the AFTA Expansion Project in collaboration with the East Asia and Pacific Region. The authors may be contacted at efukaseworldbank.org or wmartin1@worldbank.org
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  • 4
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    How Did Highly Indebted Poor Countries Become Highly Indebted? : Reviewing Two Decades of Debt Relief (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Easterly, William How Did Highly Indebted Poor Countries Become Highly Indebted?
    Keywords: Amount Of Debt ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Commercial Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Debt Payment ; Debt Relief ; Debt Service ; Debt Servicing ; Debt-Service ; Default ; Discount ; Discount Rate ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Loan ; Foreign Loans ; Forgiveness ; Good ; Indebted Countries ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Productive Investments ; Strategic Debt Management ; Third World Debt ; Amount Of Debt ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Commercial Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Debt Payment ; Debt Relief ; Debt Service ; Debt Servicing ; Debt-Service ; Default ; Discount ; Discount Rate ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Loan ; Foreign Loans ; Forgiveness ; Good ; Indebted Countries ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Productive Investments ; Strategic Debt Management ; Third World Debt
    Abstract: November 1999 - Theoretical models predict that countries with unchanged long-run savings preferences will respond to debt relief by running up new debts or by running down assets. And there are some signs that incremental debt relief over the past two decades has fulfilled those predictions. Debt relief is futile for countries with unchanged long-run savings preferences. How did highly indebted poor countries become highly indebted after two decades of debt relief efforts? A set of theoretical models predict that countries with unchanged long-run savings preferences will respond to debt relief with a mixture of asset decumulation and new borrowing. A model also predicts that a high-discount-rate government will choose poor policies and impose its intertemporal preferences on the entire economy. Reviewing the experience of highly indebted poor countries, compared with that of other developing countries, Easterly finds direct and indirect evidence of asset decumulation and new borrowing associated with debt relief. The ratio of the net present value of debt to exports rose strongly over 1979-97 despite the debt relief efforts. Average policies in highly indebted poor countries were generally worse than those in other developing countries, controlling for income. The trend for terms of trade was no different in highly indebted poor countries than in other developing countries, not were wars more likely in highly indebted poor countries. Over time there has been an important shift in financing for highly indebted poor countries, away from private and bilateral nonconcessional sources to the International Development Association and other sources of multilateral concessional financing. But this implicit form of debt relief also failed to reduce debt in net present value terms. Although debt relief is done in the name of the poor, the poor are worse off if debt relief creates incentives to delay reforms needed for growth. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the effectiveness of aid for growth. The author may be contacted at weasterlyworldbank.org
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  • 5
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    Predicting Currency Fluctuations and Crises : Do Resident Firms Have an Informational Advantage? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schmukler, Sergio Predicting Currency Fluctuations and Crises
    Keywords: Asymmetric Information ; Balance Of Payments ; Balance Of Payments Crises ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; E-Business ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rate Differentials ; International Cred International Financial Markets ; Investors ; Local Business ; Local Investors ; Mutual Funds ; Private Sector Development ; Sovereign Debt ; Asymmetric Information ; Balance Of Payments ; Balance Of Payments Crises ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; E-Business ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rate Differentials ; International Cred International Financial Markets ; Investors ; Local Business ; Local Investors ; Mutual Funds ; Private Sector Development ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: December 1999 - Markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers, who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates. Kaufmann, Mehrez, and Schmukler investigate whether resident enterprise managers have an informational advantage about the countries in which they work. They propose a method for extracting information available to resident managers but unknown to investors and forecasters. They test their hypothesis of informational advantage using a unique data set, the Global Competitiveness Survey. The survey asks local managers about their outlook for the country in which they reside. They find that local managers do have useful private information. Local managers' responses improve on conventional forecasts of future volatility and changes in the exchange rate, which are based on economic fundamentals or interest rate differentials. They find that the local business community perceived in advance the recent crises in the Republic of Korea, Russia, and Thailand, but not those in Indonesia and Malaysia. Markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers, who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates. This paper - a product of Governance, Regulation, and Finance, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to understand the roles of transparency and governance. The authors may be contacted at dkaufmannworldbank.org, mehrezg@gunet.georgetown.edu, or sschmukler@worldbank.org
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  • 6
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    How the Republic of Korea's Financial Structure Affects the Volatility of Four Asset Prices (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Min, G. Hong How the Republic of Korea's Financial Structure Affects the Volatility of Four Asset Prices
    Keywords: Asset Prices ; Banking Sector ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Flows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Crises ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Structure ; Financial System ; Government Bond ; Government Bond Yield ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Markets and Market Access ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Policies ; Money Market ; Money Market Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Stock ; Asset Prices ; Banking Sector ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Flows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Crises ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Structure ; Financial System ; Government Bond ; Government Bond Yield ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Markets and Market Access ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Policies ; Money Market ; Money Market Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Stock
    Abstract: April 2000 - How Korea's financial structure affects the volatility of Korea's real effective exchange rate, money market rate, government bond yields, and stock prices. Min and Park explore how Korea's financial structure affects the volatility of asset prices. Documented empirical evidence of the relationship between financial structure and financial crisis sheds light on the relationship between asset price volatility - extreme variations in prices - and financial structure. And the volatility of financial and nonfinancial asset prices provides an indirect link between an economy's financial structure and the likelihood of financial crisis. Using time-series data and a set of indicators measuring financial structure, Min and Park examine how Korea's financial structure affects the volatility of the real effective exchange rate, the money market rate, government bond yields, and stock prices. They find: · There is a stable long-term relationship between financial structure and volatility in the real effective exchange rate, the money market rate, stock prices, and the yield on government housing bonds. · Financial structure affects asset price variables asymmetrically. Some variables' volatility increases and others' diminish, suggesting that monetary policies should target different asset markets to achieve different goals. If the goal of the monetary authority is to stabilize the money market rate, for example, intervening in the banking sector is more efficient than intervening in other financial subsectors. · The higher volatility of stock prices reflects the thin stock market in Korea. · The stability of the yield on government housing bonds reflects the Korean government's policy of stabilizing the nation's housing supply by isolating the housing market from the impact of Korea's financial structure. · Restrictions on foreigners' ownership of domestic stock in Korea during the period analyzed, and the fact that most capital flows through commercial banks, affect the exchange rate, which is determined (at least in the short run) by capital flows in the foreign exchange market. This paper - a product of the Macroeconomic Data Team, Development Data Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the financial structure of developing countries based on empirical data. The authors may be contacted at hmin56aol.com or jpark@worldbank.org
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  • 7
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    Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (68 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Herrera, Santiago Output Fluctuations in Latin America
    Keywords: Accounting ; Bond ; Bonds ; Business Cycles ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Capital Flows ; Capital Markets ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gross Domestic Product ; Interest Rates ; International Development ; International Interest ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Exchange Rates ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Share ; Sovereign Debt ; Accounting ; Bond ; Bonds ; Business Cycles ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Capital Flows ; Capital Markets ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gross Domestic Product ; Interest Rates ; International Development ; International Interest ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Exchange Rates ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Share ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: May 2000 - For the period 1992-98, domestic factors explain most output variability in Latin America. However, external factors account for about 60 percent of the 1998-99 slowdown - perhaps in part because external variables were more volatile during this period, but mainly because domestic variables - real interest rates and real exchange rates - were more stable in these two years. Herrera, Perry, and Quintero explain Latin America's growth slowdown in 1998-99. To do so, they use two complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific external factors: the terms of trade, international interest rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and climatological factors (El Niño). Using quarterly GDP data for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50 - 60 percent of the slowdown was due to these external factors. The second approach allows for effects on output by some endogenous variables, such as domestic real interest rates and real exchange rates. Using monthly industrial production data, the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector autoregressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the slowdown in the subperiod 1998-99 is explained more than 60 percent by shocks to the external factors. This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Regional Office - is part of a larger effort to understand output fluctuations and growth in the region. The authors may be contacted at gperryworldbank.org or nquintero@worldbank.org
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  • 8
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    Bureaucratic Delegation and Political Institutions : When Are Independent Central Banks Irrelevant? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (54 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Keefer, Philip Bureaucratic Delegation and Political Institutions
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Central Bank Independence ; Central Banks ; Checks ; Contracts ; Credibility ; Credibility Problem ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Default ; Discount ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Investments ; Future ; Futures ; Holding ; ICT Applications ; Inflation ; Inflation Rate ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Money Supply ; Option ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Shocks To Income ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Central Bank Independence ; Central Banks ; Checks ; Contracts ; Credibility ; Credibility Problem ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Default ; Discount ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Investments ; Future ; Futures ; Holding ; ICT Applications ; Inflation ; Inflation Rate ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Money Supply ; Option ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Shocks To Income
    Abstract: March 2000 - Does delegation of policymaking authority to independent agencies improve policy outcomes? This paper reports new theory and tests related to delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank. The authors find that delegation reduces inflation only under specific institutional and political conditions. The government's ability to credibly commit to policy announcements is critical to the successful implementation of economic policies as diverse as capital taxation and utilities regulation. One frequently advocated means of signaling credible commitment is to delegate authority to an agency that will not have an incentive to opportunistically change policies once the private sector has taken such steps as signing wage contracts or making irreversible investments. Delegating authority is suggested as a government strategy particularly for monetary policy. And existing work on the independence of central banks generally assumes that government decisions to delegate are irrevocable. But delegation - in monetary policy as elsewhere - is inevitably a political choice, and can be reversed, contend Keefer and Stasavage. They develop a model of monetary policy that relaxes the assumption that monetary delegation is irreversible. Among the testable predictions of the model are these: · The presence of an independent central bank should reduce inflation only in the presence of political checks and balances. This effect should be evident in both developing and industrial countries. · Political actions to interfere with the central bank should be more apparent when there are few checks and balances. · The effects of checks and balances should be more marked when political decisionmakers are more polarized. The authors test these predictions and find extensive empirical evidence to support each of the observable implications of their model: Central banks are associated with better inflation outcomes in the presence of checks and balances. The turnover of central bank governors is reduced when governors have tenure protections supported by political checks and balances. And the effect of checks and balances is enhanced in more polarized political environments. This paper - a product of Regulation and Competition Policy, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to identify the conditions under which regulatory reforms can be effective. The authors may be contacted at pkeeferworldbank.org or d.stasavage@lse.ac.uk
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  • 9
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    Financial Openness, Democracy, and Redistributive Policy (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Dailami, Mansoor Financial Openness, Democracy, and Redistributive Policy
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Bonds ; Capital Flows ; Capital Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Openness ; Free Capital ; Future ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Government Policies ; Information Technologies ; Insurance ; International Capital ; International Capital Mobility ; International Financial Markets ; International Financial System ; International Lending ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Integration ; Moral Hazard ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Bonds ; Capital Flows ; Capital Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Openness ; Free Capital ; Future ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Government Policies ; Information Technologies ; Insurance ; International Capital ; International Capital Mobility ; International Financial Markets ; International Financial System ; International Lending ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Integration ; Moral Hazard ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: June 2000 - What explains the spread of both democracy and financial openness at this time in history, given the constraining impact of financial market integration on national policy autonomy? International policy coordination is part of the answer, but not all. Also important is the presence of cost-effective redistributive schemes that provide insurance against the risk of financial instability. The debate about the relationship between democratic forms of government and the free movement of capital across borders dates to the 18th century. It has regained prominence as capital on a massive scale has become increasingly mobile and as free economies experience continuous pressure from rapidly changing technology, market integration, changing consumer preferences, and intensified competition. These changes imply greater uncertainty about citizens' future income positions, which could prompt them to seek insurance through the marketplace or through constitutionally arranged income redistribution. As more countries move toward democracy, the availability of such insurance mechanisms to citizens is key if political pressure for capital controls is to be averted and if public support for an open, liberal international financial order is to be maintained. Dailami briefly reviews how today's international financial system evolved from one of mostly closed capital accounts immediately after World War II to today's enormous, largely free-flowing market. Drawing on insights from the literature on public choice and constitutional political economy, Dailami develops an analytical framework for a welfare cost-benefit analysis of financial openness to international capital flows. The main welfare benefits of financial openness derive from greater economic efficiency and increased opportunities for risk diversification. The welfare costs relate to the cost of insurance used as a mechanism for coping with the risks of financial volatility. These insurance costs are the economic losses associated with redistribution, including moral hazard, rent-seeking, and rent-avoidance. A cross-sectional analysis of a large sample of developed and developing countries shows the positive correlation between democracy (as defined by political and civil liberty) and financial openness. More rigorous econometric investigation using logit analysis and controlling for level of income also shows that redistributive social policies are key in determining the likelihood that countries can successfully combine an openness to international capital mobility with democratic forms of government. This paper - a product of Governance, Regulation, and Finance, World Bank Institute- is part of a broader research effort on The Quality of Growth. The author may be contacted at mdailamiworldbank.org
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  • 10
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    A Regime-Switching Approach to Studying Speculative Attacks : A Focus on European Monetary System Crises (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (57 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Peria, Maria A Regime-Switching Approach to Studying Speculative Attacks
    Keywords: Central Bank ; Crawling Peg ; Currencies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Dependent Variable ; Devaluations ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; European Monetary System ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Mechanism ; Exchange Rates ; Federal Reserve ; Federal Reserve Bank ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes ; Fixed Exchange Rate Systems ; Interest Rates ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Speculative Attack ; Speculative Attacks ; Speculative Pressure ; Central Bank ; Crawling Peg ; Currencies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Dependent Variable ; Devaluations ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; European Monetary System ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Mechanism ; Exchange Rates ; Federal Reserve ; Federal Reserve Bank ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes ; Fixed Exchange Rate Systems ; Interest Rates ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Speculative Attack ; Speculative Attacks ; Speculative Pressure
    Abstract: June 1999 - A regime-switching framework is used to study speculative attacks against European Monetary System currencies during 1979-93. Peria uses a regime-switching framework to study speculative attacks against European Monetary System (EMS) currencies during 1979-93. She identifies speculative attacks by modeling exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates as time series subject to discrete regime shifts. She assumes two states: tranquil and speculative. She models the probabilities of switching between states as a function of fundamentals and expectations. She concludes that: ° The switching models with time-varying transition probabilities capture most of the conventional episodes of speculative attacks. ° Speculative attacks do not always coincide with currency realignments. ° Both economic fundamentals and expectations determine the likelihood of switching from a period of tranquility to a speculative attack. The budget deficit appears to be an especially important factor driving the probability of switching to a speculative regime. Given the importance of anticipating and, wherever possible, avoiding crises, it might be useful to conduct forecasting exercises to determine whether the switching framework proposed here can be used to forecast crises in countries outside the sample. Because currency crises tend to occur simultaneously in two or more countries, it also might be useful to adapt the regime-switching framework to explore the role of contagion in explaining crises. This paper-a product of Finance, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to understand currency crises. The author may be contacted at mmartinezperiaworldbank.org
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  • 11
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    Corruption and Trade Tariffs, or a Case for Uniform Tariffs (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (22 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Gatti, Roberta Corruption and Trade Tariffs, or a Case for Uniform Tariffs
    Keywords: Accounting ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Administration and Reform ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Future ; Good ; Goods ; Government Revenue ; Government Revenues ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Prices ; Open Economy ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Returns ; Revenue ; Share ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxes ; Trade Policy ; Transparency ; Accounting ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Administration and Reform ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Future ; Good ; Goods ; Government Revenue ; Government Revenues ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Prices ; Open Economy ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Returns ; Revenue ; Share ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxes ; Trade Policy ; Transparency
    Abstract: November 1999 - A highly diversified trade tariff menu may fuel bribe-taking behavior. Setting trade tariff rates at a uniform level limits public officials' ability to extract bribes from importers. By explicitly accounting for the interaction between importers and corrupt customs officials, Gatti argues that setting trade tariff rates at a uniform level limits public officials' ability to extract bribes from importers. If the government's main objective is to raise revenues at the minimum cost to welfare, optimally-set tariff rates will be inversely proportional to the elasticity of demand for imports. So they will generally differ across goods. Such a menu of tariff rates endows customs officials with the opportunity to extract rent from importers. If officials have enough discretionary power, they might threaten to misclassify goods into more heavily taxed categories unless importers pay them a bribe. Because of the bribe, the effective tariff rate for the importing firm increases, so demand for the good decreases. The resulting drop in import demand implies an efficiency loss as well as lower government revenues, compared with the optimal taxation benchmark without corruption. A similar argument applies when customs officials offer to classify goods into low-tariff categories in exchange for a bribe. Setting trade tariffs at a uniform level eliminates officials' opportunities to extract rents. Thus, when corruption is pervasive, a uniform tariff can deliver more government revenues and welfare than the optimally set (Ramsey) tariff benchmark. The empirical evidence confirms that these considerations are relevant to policymaking, since a robust association between the standard deviation of trade tariffs - a measure of the diversification of tariff menus - and corruption emerges across countries. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study corruption. Please contact Roberta Gatti, Internet address rgattiworldbank.org
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  • 12
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    Will the Euro Create a Bonanza for Africa? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cohen, Daniel Will the Euro Create a Bonanza for Africa?
    Keywords: Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Flows ; Country Risk ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Capital ; Domestic Capital Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investments ; Global Markets ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; International Capital ; International Capital Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Portfolio ; Portfolio Diversification ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Reserve ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Flows ; Country Risk ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Capital ; Domestic Capital Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investments ; Global Markets ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; International Capital ; International Capital Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Portfolio ; Portfolio Diversification ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Reserve
    Abstract: At this stage, it is difficult to conclude that the euro will have substantial macroeconomic impact on sub-Saharan Africa, unless launch of the euro becomes the tool of a major policy shift, such as the euroization of the continent - which is currently unlikely. - In considering how the euro will affect Sub-Saharan Africa, Cohen, Kristensen, and Verner examine the transmission channels through which the euro could affect economies in the region. They examine the risks and opportunities the euro presents for Sub-Saharan African countries. They especially examine the effects from the trade channel, through changes in European economic activity and the real exchange rate. Because of the relatively low income elasticity for primary commodities - which is what Sub-Saharan Africa mainly exports - an increase in activity in Europe is considered to have a marginal impact on Africa. Exchange rate regimes and geographical trade patterns point to large differences in exposure to changes in the real exchange rate. Capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa can be affected through portfolio shifts or through changes in foreign direct investment. Changes in competitiveness in Europe are not expected to influence foreign direct investment, so the euro is not expected to affect foreign direct investment significantly. Portfolio diversification could increase greatly. But Sub-Saharan Africa is not expected to realize the increased potential from portfolio diversification because of its severely underdeveloped domestic capital markets. It is vitally important that Sub-Saharan African countries strengthen their financial integration into global markets. How the euro will affect such parts of the financial system as banks and debt and reserve management varies across countries. Generally the effect is expected to be limited. This paper - a product of Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to study the effect of the euro on developing countries. The authors may be contacted at nkristensenworldbank.org or dverner@worldbank.org
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  • 13
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    The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (86 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Peria, Maria The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability
    Keywords: Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Demand For Money ; Deregulation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equations ; Exchange ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Government Bonds ; Inflation ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Labor Policies ; M2 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Monetary Policy ; Money ; Multipliers ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Stock ; Stock Prices ; T-Bills ; Variables ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Demand For Money ; Deregulation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equations ; Exchange ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Government Bonds ; Inflation ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Labor Policies ; M2 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Monetary Policy ; Money ; Multipliers ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Stock ; Stock Prices ; T-Bills ; Variables
    Abstract: March 2000 - Policymakers in countries undergoing banking crises should not worry about the structural stability of money demand functions; the behavior of money demand during crises can be modeled by the same function used during periods of tranquility. But policymakers should be aware that in some instances crises can give rise to variance instability in the price or inflation equations. Martinez Peria empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay. She uses cointegration analysis and error correction modeling to research: · Whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises. · Whether crises bring about structural breaks in the relationship between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, she finds no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability. Nor do the results consistently support the notion that the relationship between monetary indicators and prices undergoes structural breaks during crises. However, although individual coefficients in price equations do not seem to be severely affected by crises, crises can sometimes give rise to variance instability in price or inflation equations. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study banking crises. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Monetary Policy and Monetary Indicators during Banking Crises (RPO 683-24). The author may be contacted at mmartinezperiaworldbank.org
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  • 14
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    What Drives Private Saving around the World? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman What Drives Private Saving around the World?
    Keywords: Capital Gains ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demographic ; Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Disposable Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Housing Lending ; Income ; Inequality ; Inflation Episodes ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pension ; Pension System ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Policies ; Trade ; Capital Gains ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demographic ; Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Disposable Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Housing Lending ; Income ; Inequality ; Inflation Episodes ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pension ; Pension System ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Policies ; Trade
    Abstract: March 2000 - Saving rates vary considerably across countries and over time. Policies that spur development are an indirect but effective way to raise private saving rates - which rise with the level and growth rate of real per capita income. Loayza, Schmidt-Hebbel, and Servén investigate the policy and nonpolicy factors behind saving disparities, using a large panel data set and an encompassing approach including several relevant determinants of private saving. They extend the literature in several dimensions by: · Using the largest data set on aggregate saving assembled to date. · Using panel instrumental variable techniques to correct for endogeneity and heterogeneity. · Performing robustness checks on changes in estimation procedures, data samples, and model specification. Their main empirical findings: · Private saving rates show considerable inertia (are highly serially correlated even after controlling for other relevant factors). · Private saving rates rise with the level and growth rate of real per capita income. So policies that spur development are an indirect but effective way to raise private saving rates. · Predictions of the life-cycle hypothesis are supported in that dependency ratios generally have a negative effect on private saving rates. · The precautionary motive for saving is supported by the finding that inflation - conventionally taken as a summary measure of macroeconomic volatility - has a positive impact on private saving, holding other facts constant. · Fiscal policy is a moderately effective tool for raising national saving. · The direct effects of financial liberalization are largely detrimental to private saving rates. Greater availability of credit reduces the private saving rate; financial depth and higher real interest rates do not increase saving. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the determinants of saving in developing countries. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Saving in the World: Puzzles and Policies (RPO 681-36). The authors may be contacted at nloayzaworldbank.org or lserven@worldbank.org
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  • 15
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    How Interest Rates Changed under Financial Liberalization : A Cross-Country Review (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (56 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Honohan, Patrick How Interest Rates Changed under Financial Liberalization
    Keywords: Asset Prices ; Bank Interest Rates ; Bank Lending ; Bank Spreads ; Borrowers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Lending ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rates ; Money Market ; Private Sector Development ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rates ; Treasury ; Treasury Bill ; Treasury Bill Rates ; Asset Prices ; Bank Interest Rates ; Bank Lending ; Bank Spreads ; Borrowers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Lending ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rates ; Money Market ; Private Sector Development ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rates ; Treasury ; Treasury Bill ; Treasury Bill Rates
    Abstract: April 2000 - As financial liberalization progressed, the general level of real interest rates increased more in developing countries than it did in industrial countries. Volatility in wholesale interest rates also jumped, often markedly, in most liberalizing countries. Treasury bill rates and bank spreads showed the greatest increase in developing countries, shifting substantial rents from the public sector and from favored borrowers. Financial liberalization was expected to make interest rates and asset prices more volatile, with distributional consequences such as reduced or relocated rents and increased competition in financial services. Honohan examines available data on money market and bank interest rates for evidence of whether these things happened. He shows that as more and more countries liberalized, the level and dynamic behavior of developing-country interest rates converged to industrial-country norms. In the short term, volatility increased in both real and nominal money market interest rates. Treasury bill rates and bank spreads, evidently the most repressed, showed the greatest increase as liberalization progressed - shifting substantial rents from the public sector and from favored borrowers. Whereas quoted bank spreads in industrial countries contracted somewhat in the late 1990s, spreads in developing countries remained much higher, presumably reflecting both market power and the higher risks of lending in the developing world. There was no clear-cut change in mean rates of inflation, monetary depth, or GDP growth. If anything, there was a small average improvement in inflation, but a decline in monetary depth and economic growth, relative to trends in industrial countries. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to explore optimal policy under financial liberalization. The author may be contacted atphonohanworldbank.org
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  • 16
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    Shock Persistence and the Choice of Foreign Exchange Regime : An Empirical Note from Mexico (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (20 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Giugale, Marcelo Shock Persistence and the Choice of Foreign Exchange Regime
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Board ; Currency Board Arrangements ; Currency Boards ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Economy ; Econometric Evidence ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate Flo Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Regime ; External Shock ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Rate ; Foreign Exchange Rates ; Inflation ; International Financial Integration ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Unions ; Open Capital Accounts ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Structural Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Board ; Currency Board Arrangements ; Currency Boards ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Economy ; Econometric Evidence ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate Flo Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Regime ; External Shock ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Rate ; Foreign Exchange Rates ; Inflation ; International Financial Integration ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Unions ; Open Capital Accounts ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Structural Reform
    Abstract: July 2000 - Empirical econometric evidence shows that Mexico's simulated output recovery after a negative external shock was faster (a third as long) when the country's policymakers let the nominal foreign exchange rate float than when they fixed it, and much faster than in other developing countries that kept nominal foreign exchange rates constant, especially those that resorted to currency board arrangements to support that constancy. The academic and policy debate about optimal foreign exchange rate regimes for emerging economies has focused more on the theoretical costs and benefits of possible regimes than on their actual performance. Giugale and Korobow report on what can be called exchange-rate-regime-dependent differential shock persistence-that is, the time output takes to return to its trend after a negative shock-in a sample of countries representing various points on the spectrum of nominal foreign exchange flexibility. They find strong evidence that Mexico's simulated output recovery after a negative external shock was faster (a third as long) when the country's policymakers let the nominal foreign exchange rate float than when they fixed it, and much faster than in other developing countries that kept nominal foreign exchange rates constant, especially those that resorted to currency board arrangements to support that constancy. These results are insufficient to guide the choice of regime (they lack general equilibrium value and are based on a limited sample of countries), but they highlight an important practical consideration in making that choice: How long it takes for output to adjust after negative shocks is sensitive to the level of rigidity of the foreign exchange regime. This factor may be critical when the social costs of those adjustments are not negligible. This paper-a product of the Mexico Country Department, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand policy options open to developing countries for handling macroeconomic volatility in a globalized economy. The authors may be contacted at mgiugaleworldbank.org or akorobow@worldbank.org
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  • 17
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    Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Buffer ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Consumption ; Cross-Country Studies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Balance ; Current Account Defic Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Position ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Explanatory Variables ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Income ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Surplus ; World Economy ; Buffer ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Consumption ; Cross-Country Studies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Balance ; Current Account Defic Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Position ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Explanatory Variables ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Income ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Surplus ; World Economy
    Abstract: July 2000 - In developing countries, increases in current account deficits tend to be associated with a rise in domestic output growth and shocks that increase the terms of trade and cause the real exchange rate to appreciate. Higher savings rates, higher growth rates in industrial economies, and higher international interest rates tend to have the opposite effect. Calderón, Chong, and Loayza examine the empirical links between current account deficits and a broad set of economic variables proposed in the literature. To accomplish this, they complement and extend previous research by using a large, consistent set of macroeconomic data on public and private domestic savings, external savings, and national income variables; focusing on developing economies by drawing on a panel data set for 44 developing countries and annual information for the period 1966-95; adopting a reduced-form approach rather than holding to a particular structural model; distinguishing between within-country and cross-country effects; and employing a class of estimators that controls for the problems of simultaneity and reverse causation. Among their findings: · Current account deficits in developing countries are moderately persistent. · A rise in domestic output growth generates a larger current account deficit. · Increases in savings rates have a positive effect on the current account. · Shocks that increase the terms of trade or cause the real exchange rate to appreciate are linked with higher current account deficits. · Either higher growth rates in industrial economies or higher international interest rates reduce the current account deficit in developing economies. This paper-a product of the Regional Studies Program, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of an effort in the region to understand the determinants of external sustainability. The authors may be contacted at crcntroi.cc.rochester.edu, achong@worldbank.org, or nloayza@condor.bcentral.cl
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  • 18
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    Does Financial Liberalization Relax Financing Constraints on Firms? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (56 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Laeven, Luc Does Financial Liberalization Relax Financing Constraints on Firms?
    Keywords: Administrative Controls ; Allocation Of Cred Banking Sector ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Barriers To Entry ; Credit Programs ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposits ; Developing Countries ; Directed Cred Emerging Economies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Market ; Financial System ; Household Savings ; Informational Asymmetries ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Securities ; Securities Markets ; Administrative Controls ; Allocation Of Cred Banking Sector ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Barriers To Entry ; Credit Programs ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposits ; Developing Countries ; Directed Cred Emerging Economies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Market ; Financial System ; Household Savings ; Informational Asymmetries ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Securities ; Securities Markets
    Abstract: October 2000 - Financial liberalization reduces imperfections in financial markets by reducing the agency costs of financial leverage. Small firms gain most from liberalization, because the favoritism of preferential credit directed to large firms tends to disappear under liberalization. Laeven uses panel data on 394 firms in 13 developing countries for the years 1988–98 to learn whether financial liberalization relaxes financing constraints on firms. He finds that liberalization affects small and large firms differently. Small firms are financially constrained before liberalization begins but become less so after liberalization. The financing constraints on large firms, however, are low both before and after liberalization. The initial difference between small and large firms disappears over time. Laeven hypothesizes that financial liberalization has little effect on the financing constraints of large firms because they have better access to preferential directed credit in the period before liberalization.Financial liberalization also reduces imperfections in financial markets, especially the asymmetric information costs of firms’ financial leverage. Countries that liberalize their financial sectors tend to see dramatic improvements in political climate as well. Successful financial liberalization seems to require both the political will and the ability to stop the preferential treatment of well-connected, usually large, firms. This paper—a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department—is part of a larger effort in the department to study the benefits and risks of financial liberalization. The author may be contacted at llaevenworldbank.org
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  • 19
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    The Credit Crunch in East Asia : What Can Bank Excess Liquid Assets Tell Us? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Agénor, Pierre-Richard The Credit Crunch in East Asia
    Keywords: Bank Cred Bank Lending ; Bank Loans ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Commercial Banks ; Credit Rationing ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand For Cred Domestic Cred Finance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policies ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Law and Development ; Liquid Assets ; Liquidity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Fund ; Private Sector Development ; Profits ; Reserves ; Risk Of Default ; Settlement of Investment Disputes ; Working Capital ; Bank Cred Bank Lending ; Bank Loans ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Commercial Banks ; Credit Rationing ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand For Cred Domestic Cred Finance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policies ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Law and Development ; Liquid Assets ; Liquidity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Fund ; Private Sector Development ; Profits ; Reserves ; Risk Of Default ; Settlement of Investment Disputes ; Working Capital
    Abstract: November 2000 - A two-step approach is used to assess the extent to which the credit crunch in East Asia was supply- or demand-driven. The results for Thailand suggest that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors. Agénor, Aizenman, and Hoffmaister propose a two-step approach for assessing the extent to which the fall in credit in crisis-stricken East Asian countries was a supply- or demand-induced phenomenon. The first step involves estimating a demand function for excess liquid assets held by commercial banks. The second step involves establishing dynamic projections for the periods after the crisis and assessing whether or not residuals are large enough to be viewed as indicators of an “involuntary” accumulation of excess reserves. The results for Thailand suggest that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors. Thai firms (presumably small and medium-size ones) faced binding constraints in getting access to credit markets after the crisis. This paper—a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute—is part of a larger effort in the institute to understand the macroeconomic effects of credit market imperfections. Pierre-Richard Agénor may be contacted at pagenorworldbank.org
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  • 20
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    Deep Integration, Nondiscrimination, and Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Hoekman, Bernard Deep Integration, Nondiscrimination, and Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade
    Keywords: Bilateral Free Trade Agreement ; Competition Laws ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Clearance ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Regulatory Policies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Suppliers ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Market Access Costs ; Market Segmentation ; Market Segmenting ; Market Segmenting Effect ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regionalism ; Regulatory Barriers ; Regulatory Stance ; Safety Regulations ; Tariff ; Tariff Barriers ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Bilateral Free Trade Agreement ; Competition Laws ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Clearance ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Regulatory Policies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Suppliers ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Market Access Costs ; Market Segmentation ; Market Segmenting ; Market Segmenting Effect ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regionalism ; Regulatory Barriers ; Regulatory Stance ; Safety Regulations ; Tariff ; Tariff Barriers ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration
    Abstract: May 1999 - Preferential trade agreements that are limited to the elimination of tariffs for merchandise trade flows are of limited value at best and may be as easily welfare-reducing as welfare-enhancing. It is important that preferential trade agreements go beyond eliminating tariffs and quotas to eliminating regulatory and red tape costs and opening up service markets to foreign competition. Deep integration-explicit government actions to reduce the market-segmenting effect of domestic regulatory policies through coordination and cooperation-is becoming a major dimension of some regional integration agreements, led by the European Union. Health and safety regulations, competition laws, licensing and certification regimes, and administrative procedures such as customs clearance can affect trade (in ways analogous to nontariff barriers) even though their underlying intent may not be to discriminate against foreign suppliers of goods and services. Whether preferential trade agreements (PTAs) can be justified in a multilateral trading system depends on the extent to which formal intergovernmental agreements are technically necessary to achieve the deep integration needed to make markets more contestable. The more need for formal cooperation, the stronger the case for regional integration. Whether PTAs are justified regionally also depends on whether efforts to reduce market segmentation are applied on a nondiscriminatory basis. If innovations to reduce transaction or market access costs extend to both members and nonmembers of a PTA, regionalism as an instrument of trade and investment becomes more attractive. Using a standard competitive general equilibrium model of the Egyptian economy, Hoekman and Konan find that the static welfare impact of a deep free trade agreement is far greater than the impact that can be expected from a classic shallow agreement. Under some scenarios, welfare may increase by more than 10 percent of GDP, compared with close to zero under a shallow agreement. Given Egypt's highly diversified trading patterns, a shallow PTA with the European Union could be merely diversionary, leading to a small decline in welfare. Egypt already has duty-free access to the European Union for manufactures, so the loss in tariff revenues incurred would outweigh any new trade created. Large gains in welfare from the PTA are conditional on eliminating regulatory barriers and red tape-in which case welfare gains may be substantial: 4 to 20 percent growth in real GNP. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze regional integration agreements. The authors may be contacted at bhoekmanworldbank.org or konan@hawaii.edu
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    Globalization and National Development at the End of the 20th Century : Tensions and Challenges (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (19 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Solimano, Andrés Globalization and National Development at the End of the 20th Century
    Keywords: Balance Of Payments ; Capital Mobility ; Capital Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deficits ; Developing Countries ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Free Capital ; Global Economy ; Globalization ; Human Development ; Inflation ; Inflations ; International Trade ; Macroeconomic Volatility ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Monetary Fund ; Private Sector Development ; Security ; Wealth Creation ; Balance Of Payments ; Capital Mobility ; Capital Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deficits ; Developing Countries ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Free Capital ; Global Economy ; Globalization ; Human Development ; Inflation ; Inflations ; International Trade ; Macroeconomic Volatility ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Monetary Fund ; Private Sector Development ; Security ; Wealth Creation
    Abstract: June 1999 - Do globalization and national development reinforce each other? Are they mutually compatible? What opportunities for national development does globalization open? What problems does it pose? What is the proper balance between national, regional, and global responses to the challenges posed by globalization? Globalization offers developing countries the opportunities to create wealth through export-led growth, to expand international trade in goods and services, and to gain access to new ideas, technologies, and institutional designs. But globalization also entails problems and tensions that must be appropriately managed. For one thing, global business cycles can contribute greatly to macroeconomic volatility at the national level. The scope and severity of crises in Mexico (1994-95), Asia (1997), Russia (1998), and Brazil (1999) suggests the severity of the financial vulnerability developing countries face nowadays. With financial markets so highly integrated, problems are transmitted rapidly from one country to another. The rapid transmission of financial shocks changes levels of confidence and affects exchange rates, interest rates, asset prices, and, ultimately, output and employment-with consequent social effects. Policymakers should also be concerned about how globalization exacerbates job instability and income disparities both within and across countries. Macroeconomic and financial crises, by increasing poverty and social tensions, can be political destabilizing. As the 20th century ends, the resources of Bretton Woods institutions are strained because of the large and complex rescue packages needed to deal with large-scale volatility. Development policy agendas in the era of globalization need to articulate traditional concerns with growth, stability, and social equity with new themes such as transparency and good governance at several levels: national, regional, and global. This paper-a product of the Country Management Unit, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand the links between globalization and national development. The author may be contacted at asolimano worldbank.org
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  • 22
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    Fiscal Solvency and Sustainability in Economic Management (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Dinh, T. Hinh Fiscal Solvency and Sustainability in Economic Management
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Defic Debt Service ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Defic Fiscal Effort ; Fiscal Policy ; Income Inequalities ; Income Levels ; International Financial Institutions ; Levy ; Long Term Debt ; Macroeconomic Policies ; Macroeconomic Stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Poverty ; Private Sector Development ; Solvency ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Defic Debt Service ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Defic Fiscal Effort ; Fiscal Policy ; Income Inequalities ; Income Levels ; International Financial Institutions ; Levy ; Long Term Debt ; Macroeconomic Policies ; Macroeconomic Stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Poverty ; Private Sector Development ; Solvency
    Abstract: October 1999 - In a financially integrated world, it is misleading to assess fiscal performance separate from other aspects of economic development. The framework proposed here can help assess fiscal performance over time and across countries and point to a pace of fiscal adjustment consistent with a country's economic and social objectives. Fiscal policy is central to a country's economic and social objectives, from macroeconomic stability to sustainable growth and poverty reduction. But evaluations of a country's fiscal performance, over time or relative to other countries, are often conducted independent of other development objectives, disregarding the links between fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies. A budget deficit of 4 percent of GDP, for example, may be acceptable in one country but not in another, because of different initial conditions and policy priorities. In the same country, a level of fiscal deficit may be acceptable one year but not the next, depending on developments and changes in policy objectives. Dinh argues for assessing fiscal performance (1) as part of the entire framework of economic policy, (2) against a policy objective, (3) by taking into account both short- and long-term considerations, and (4) with an eye to the quality of adjustment (whether there are income inequalities or other social issues, for example) as well as its magnitude. The approach he proposes for assessing country fiscal performance requires a minimum of data and takes into account flow and stock variables on internal and external debt. The approach addresses the shortcomings of conventional analysis by incorporating the debt dynamics and other macroeconomic targets of growth, inflation, and external and internal debt. While its theoretical foundation is well known in the literature, this approach has not been adapted for assessing fiscal performance either over time or across countries, and he discusses practical issues arising from this adaptation. Dinh proposes two indicators to measure fiscal adjustment efforts: · Fiscal solvency adjustment, which measures how far additional fiscal efforts must be taken to restore solvency to the fiscal sector. · Fiscal sustainability adjustment, which measures how far additional fiscal efforts must be taken to maintain the ratios of internal and external debt to output. Dinh applies the proposed framework to evaluate recent fiscal performance in three countries - Argentina, India, and Zambia - each with a different income level and located on a different continent. The countries were selected on the basis of recent World Bank economic work using the proposed approach or an equivalent. Dinh finds the proposed approach useful for identifying key fiscal issues, for assessing the adequacy and pace of fiscal adjustment consistent with the overall economic and social objectives, and for highlighting the tradeoffs between policy initiatives. Sound fiscal policy is crucial for macroeconomic stability. When fiscal issues are under control, it is easier to coordinate other policies. When fiscal issues are part of the problem, the tradeoffs between policy outcomes become pronounced, and economic management, including the management of capital flows, becomes much more difficult. This paper is a product of Macroeconomics 1, Africa Technical Families. The author may be contacted at hdinhworldbank.org
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    Border, Border, Wide and Far, How We Wonder What You Are (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Wei, Shang-Jin Border, Border, Wide and Far, How We Wonder What You Are
    Keywords: Arbitrage ; Barriers ; Commodity ; Consumer Price Index ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Movements ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Insurance ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Trade ; Legal Systems ; Local Currencies ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Power Parity ; Price ; Price Volatility ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Purchasing Power ; Trade ; Arbitrage ; Barriers ; Commodity ; Consumer Price Index ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Movements ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Insurance ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Trade ; Legal Systems ; Local Currencies ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Power Parity ; Price ; Price Volatility ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Purchasing Power ; Trade
    Abstract: November 1999 - Crossing national borders adds significantly to price dispersion. This study of prices in Japan and the United States finds that a substantial part of that border effect is attributable to distance, shipping costs, exchange rates, and relative variability in wages. Parsley and Wei exploit three-dimensional panel data on prices for 27 traded goods, over 88 quarters, across 96 cities in Japan and the United States, to answer several questions: · Does the average exchange rate between countries stray further from zero than that between cities within a country? · Is there any tendency for the average exchange rate to move closer to zero over time? · Does the border narrow over time? · Is there evidence linking changes in the so-called border effect - the extra dispersion in prices between cities in different countries beyond what physical distance could explain - with plausible economic explanations, such as exchange rate variability? The authors present evidence that the intranational real exchange rates are substantially less volatile than the comparable distribution of international relative prices. They also show that an equally weighted average of commodity-level real exchange rates tracks the nominal exchange rate well, suggesting strong evidence of sticky prices. Next they turn to economic explanations for the dynamics of the border effect. Focusing on the dispersion of prices between city pairs, they confirm previous findings that crossing national borders adds significantly to price dispersion. Based on their point estimates, crossing the U.S.-Japan border is equivalent to adding between 2.5 and 13 million miles to the cross-country volatility of relative prices. They infer that distance, exchange rates, shipping costs, and relative variability in wages influence the border effect. After those variables are controlled for, the border effect disappears. This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand international capital flows. The authors may be contacted at david.parsleyowen.vanderbilt.edu or swei@worldbank.org
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  • 24
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    Money, Politics, and a Future for the International Financial System (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Klein, Michael Money, Politics, and a Future for the International Financial System
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; International Financial System ; Lending ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Discipline ; Moral Hazard ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulation ; Regulatory Framework ; Regulatory Oversight ; Safety Nets ; Settlement ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; International Financial System ; Lending ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Discipline ; Moral Hazard ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulation ; Regulatory Framework ; Regulatory Oversight ; Safety Nets ; Settlement
    Abstract: November 1999 - Three approaches to regulatory frameworks for financial systems - and a scenario for development of the world financial system that assumes a market solution. In developing the architecture for a financial system, the challenge is to combine deregulation and safety nets against systemic failure with effective prudential regulation and oversight. Klein analyzes three approaches to choosing an adequate regulatory framework for a financial system. · Those most worried about panic and herd behavior tend to favor relatively extensive controls on financial institutions' activities, including controls on interest rates and on the volume and direction of lending. · Those most concerned about moral hazard advocate abolishing controls and safety nets, seeing the solution in stronger market discipline and reduced powers and discretion for regulators. · Mainstream opinion advocates a mix of measures, to both strengthen market discipline and improve regulatory oversight. The approach a country opts for depends on (1) which monetary and exchange rate regime it chooses, (2) whether it is more concerned about moral hazard or about panic and herd behavior, and (3) how the politics of reform shape its solutions. Klein suggests a scenario for development of the global financial system over the next two or three decades that assumes that the final outcome will resemble the market solution - not because that is the optimal policy choice but because of how political weaknesses will interact with advances in settlement technology. In Klein's scenario, the world moves toward a monetary system in which fixed exchange rate systems or de facto currency competition limit the power of central banks. This limits options for discretionary and open-ended liquidity support to help deal with systemic financial crises. The costs of inflexible exchange rates are moderated by new types of wage contracts, using units of account that are correlated with the shocks a particular industry or kind of contract faces - thus maintaining the positive aspects of monetary systems with flexible nominal exchange rates. Mistrust in monetary authorities and the emergence of private settlement systems lead to a return of asset-backed money as the means of payment. The disciplines on financial systems come to resemble somewhat those of historical free banking systems, with financial institutions requiring high levels of equity and payments systems protected only by limited, fully funded safety nets. This paper - a product of Private Participation in Infrastructure, Private Sector Development Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to understand regulatory issues. The author may be contacted at michael.u.kleinsi.shell.com
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    Market Access Advances and Retreats : The Uruguay Round and Beyond (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (80 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Finger, Michael J Market Access Advances and Retreats
    Keywords: Agricultural Products ; Agricultural Trade ; Antidumping ; Antidumping Cases ; Border Protection ; Concessions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Industrial Products ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Quantitative Restrictions ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Rules of Origin ; Tariff ; Tariff Concessions ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariffs ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Restrictions ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Agricultural Products ; Agricultural Trade ; Antidumping ; Antidumping Cases ; Border Protection ; Concessions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Industrial Products ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Quantitative Restrictions ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Rules of Origin ; Tariff ; Tariff Concessions ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariffs ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Restrictions ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: Uruguay Round negotiations on market access were a success. Tariff cuts covered a larger share of world trade than those of the Kennedy or Tokyo Rounds and will save importers some
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    The EU Factor in the Trade Policies of Central European Countries (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kaminski, Bartlomiej The EU Factor in the Trade Policies of Central European Countries
    Keywords: Applied Tariff ; Autonomy ; Border Protection ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Producers ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Trade ; Foreign Trade Policy ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade Policies ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Tariff ; Tariff Barriers ; Tariff Rates ; Tariffs ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regimes ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Applied Tariff ; Autonomy ; Border Protection ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Producers ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Trade ; Foreign Trade Policy ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade Policies ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Tariff ; Tariff Barriers ; Tariff Rates ; Tariffs ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regimes ; Trade and Regional Integration
    Abstract: Despite strong protectionist sentiments, trade regimes have remained open in Central European countries invited to negotiate their accession to the European Union. Regional disciplines (the EU factor), combined with the legacy of low tariffs under GATT commitments, appear to have offset domestic protectionist impulses. - Kaminski examines the development of foreign trade institutions and policies in Central European countries invited to negotiate their accession to the European Union. With the dismantling of state trading, conditions of market access have been dramatically liberalized. However, except for Estonia and, to a lesser extent, the Czech Republic, most Central European countries have followed a policy of bilateral rather than multilateral trade liberalization. The fall in tariff rates on preferential imports has prompted a search for nontariff barriers, but these countries' trade regimes have remained open - which is surprising, considering the strong protectionist sentiments in economic administration. Regional disciplines (the EU factor), combined with the legacy of low tariffs under GATT commitments, appear to have been responsible for this openness. Foreign trade policy has been shaped by tensions between domestic protectionist impulses and pressures from the European Union (and other World Trade Organization members) to improve conditions of market access. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to examine trade and integration issues. The author may be contacted at bkaminskiworldbank.org
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    Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? : An Empirical Investigation (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (42 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Detragiache, Enrica Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability?
    Keywords: Asset Portfolio ; Asset Quality ; Bank Asset ; Bank Depos Banking Crises ; Banking Market ; Banking Sector ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Deposit Insurance ; Depositor ; Depositors ; Deposits ; Developing Countries ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance Law ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Law and Development ; Liquidity ; Loan ; Monetary Fund ; Moral Hazard ; National Bank ; Private Sector Development ; Asset Portfolio ; Asset Quality ; Bank Asset ; Bank Depos Banking Crises ; Banking Market ; Banking Sector ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Deposit Insurance ; Depositor ; Depositors ; Deposits ; Developing Countries ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance Law ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Law and Development ; Liquidity ; Loan ; Monetary Fund ; Moral Hazard ; National Bank ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Explicit deposit insurance tends to be detrimental to bank stability - the more so where bank interest rates are deregulated and the institutional environment is weak. - Based on evidence for 61 countries in 1980-97, Demirgüç-Kunt and Detragiache find that explicit deposit insurance tends to be detrimental to bank stability, the more so where bank interest rates are deregulated and the institutional environment is weak. The adverse impact of deposit insurance on bank stability tends to be stronger the more extensive is the coverage offered to depositors, and where the scheme is funded and run by the government rather than the private sector. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study deposit insurance. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Deposit Insurance: Issues of Principle, Design, and Implementation (RPO 682-90). The authors may be contacted at ademirguckuntworldbank.org or edetragiache@imf.org
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    Disinflation and the Supply Side (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Pizzati, Lodovico Disinflation and the Supply Side
    Keywords: Aggregate Demand ; Assets ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Elasticity Of Substitution ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Interest ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Recession ; Stock ; Supply ; Wages ; Wealth ; Aggregate Demand ; Assets ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Elasticity Of Substitution ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Interest ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Recession ; Stock ; Supply ; Wages ; Wealth
    Abstract: March 2000 - What role do supply-side factors play in the dynamics of output and absorption in exchange rate-based stabilization programs? Agénor and Pizzati study the dynamics of output, consumption, and real wages induced by a disinflation program based on permanent and temporary reductions in the nominal devaluation rate. They use an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy in which domestic households face imperfect world capital markets, the labor supply is endogenous, and wages are flexible. The model predicts that, with a constant capital stock and no investment, there is an initial reduction in real wages and output expands. Consumption falls on impact but increases afterward. In addition, with a temporary shock, a current account deficit emerges and, later, a recession sets in, as documented in various studies. With endogenous capital accumulation, numerical simulations show that the model can also predict a boom in investment. This paper is a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute. The authors may be contacted at pagenorworldbank.org and lpizzati@worldbank.org
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    Leading Indicator Project : Lithuania (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (22 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Duval-Hernandez, Robert Leading Indicator Project
    Keywords: Averaging ; Benchmark ; Business Cycles ; Cd ; Cred Economic Activity ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Research ; Economic Statistics ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Expectations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Forecasting ; Forecasts ; Information Security and Privacy ; Interest Rate ; Knowledge for Development ; Leading Indicators ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Private Sector Development ; Science Education ; Science and Technology Development ; Scientific Research and Science Parks ; Statistical and Mathematical Sciences ; Trade ; Trends ; Trough ; Unemployment ; Value ; Variables ; Averaging ; Benchmark ; Business Cycles ; Cd ; Cred Economic Activity ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Research ; Economic Statistics ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Expectations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Forecasting ; Forecasts ; Information Security and Privacy ; Interest Rate ; Knowledge for Development ; Leading Indicators ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Private Sector Development ; Science Education ; Science and Technology Development ; Scientific Research and Science Parks ; Statistical and Mathematical Sciences ; Trade ; Trends ; Trough ; Unemployment ; Value ; Variables
    Abstract: June 2000 - A method for forecasting growth cycles in economic activity (measured as total industrial production), as applied to Lithuania. Everhart and Duval-Hernandez present a method for forecasting growth cycles in economic activity, measured as total industrial production. They construct a series which they aggregate into a composite leading indicator to predict the path of the economy in Lithuania. The cycle is the result of the economy's deviations from its long-term trend. A contractionary phase means a decline in the growth rate of the economy, not necessarily an absolute decline in economic activity. The indicator they select for economic activity is usually the Index of Industrial Production, plus a group of variables that, when filtered and adjusted, becomes the composite leading indicator that forecasts the reference series. Variables include economically and statistically significant financial, monetary, real sector, and business survey data. They base selection of the components of the leading indicator on the forecast efficiency and economic significance of the series. Once selected, the relevant variables are aggregated into a single composite leading indicator, which forecasts the detrended Index of Industrial Production. They apply the Hodrick-Prescott filter method for detrending the series. This is a smoothing technique that decomposes seasonally adjusted series into cyclical and trend components. One advantage of the Hodrick-Prescott filter is that it provides a reasonable estimate of a series' long-term trend. The OECD uses a system of leading indicators to predict growth cycles in the economies of its member countries. These exercises have been very effective in their forecasting ability and accuracy - but for the technique to work it is essential to have an adequate statistical system that provides many economic variables in a precise and timely manner, preferably monthly. The authors extend the OECD technique and present an application to a country of the former Soviet Union. This paper - a joint product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Units, Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Carribean Regions, and the Mexico Country Management Unit - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to foster the development of macroeconomic monitoring techniques. Authors may be contacted by email at severhartworldbank.org or rduval@worldbank.org
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    Africa's Growth Tragedy : A Retrospective, 1960 - 89 (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Levine, Ross Africa's Growth Tragedy
    Keywords: Black Market ; Business Cycle ; Country Regressions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Educational Attainment ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Sector ; Financial Systems ; Growth ; Growth Performance ; Growth Rate ; Growth Rates ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Long-Run Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nutrition ; Per Capita Income ; Policy Change ; Policy Research ; Political Instability ; Political Stability ; Poor Countries ; Poor Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Black Market ; Business Cycle ; Country Regressions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Educational Attainment ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Sector ; Financial Systems ; Growth ; Growth Performance ; Growth Rate ; Growth Rates ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Long-Run Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nutrition ; Per Capita Income ; Policy Change ; Policy Research ; Political Instability ; Political Stability ; Poor Countries ; Poor Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth
    Abstract: August 1995 - Problems associated with Sub-Saharan Africa's slow growth are low school attainment, political instability, poorly developed financial systems, large black-market exchange-rate premia, large government deficits, and inadequate infrastructure. Improving policies alone boosts growth substantially. But if neighboring countries adopt a policy change together, the effects on growth are more than double what they would have been if one country had acted alone. Africa's economic history since 1960 fits the classical definition of tragedy: potential unfulfilled, with disastrous consequences. Easterly and Levine use one methodology - cross-country regressions - to account for Sub-Saharan Africa's growth performance over the past 30 years and to suggest policies to promote growth over the next 30 years. They statistically quantify the relationship between long-run growth and a wider array of factors than any previous study. They consider such standard variables as initial income to capture convergence effects, schooling, political stability, and indicators of monetary, fiscal, trade, exchange rate, and financial sector policies. They also consider such new measures as infrastructure development, cultural diversity, and economic spillovers from neighbors' growth. Their analysis: ° Improves substantially on past attempts to account for the growth experience of Sub-Saharan African countries. ° Shows that low school attainment, political instability, poorly developed financial systems, large black-market exchange-rate premia, large government deficits, and inadequate infrastructure are associated with slow growth. ° Finds that Africa's ethnic diversity tends to slow growth and reduce the likelihood of adopting good policies. ° Identifies spillovers of growth performance between neighboring countries. The spillover effects of growth have implications for policy strategy. Improving policies alone boosts growth substantially, but if neighboring countries act together, the effects on growth are much greater. Specifically, the results suggest that the effect of neighbors' adopting a policy change is 2.2 times greater than if a single country acted alone. This paper - a joint product of the Macroeconomics and Growth Division and the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to understand the link between policies and growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Patterns of Growth (RPO 678-26)
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    Can Africa Export Manufactures? : The Role of Endowment, Exchange Rates, and Transaction Costs (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (23 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Elbadawi, A. Ibrahim Can Africa Export Manufactures?
    Keywords: Capital Markets ; Comparative Advantage ; Comparative Advantages ; Competitiveness ; Costs ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exports ; Failures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Human Capital ; Income Elasticity Of Demand ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Resources ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Taxation ; Taxes ; Theory ; Trade ; Variables ; Capital Markets ; Comparative Advantage ; Comparative Advantages ; Competitiveness ; Costs ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exports ; Failures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Human Capital ; Income Elasticity Of Demand ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Resources ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Taxation ; Taxes ; Theory ; Trade ; Variables
    Abstract: May 1999 - Africa's poor performance in manufactured exports in the 1990s (relative to East Asia) appears to be largely the result of bad policies-especially policies that affect transaction costs. Elbadawi analyzes the determinants of manufactured exports in Africa and other developing countries, guided by three pivotal views on Sub-Saharan Africa's (Africa's) prospects in manufactured exports: ° Adrian Woods holds that Africa cannot have comparative advantage in exports of labor-intensive manufactures (even if broadly defined to include raw material processing) because its natural resources endowment is greater than its human resources endowment (endowment thesis). ° Paul Collier argues that, for most of Africa, unusually high (policy-induced) transaction costs are the main source of Africa's comparative disadvantage in manufactured exports (transaction thesis). ° A third approach (Elbadawi and Helleiner) emphasizes the importance of stable, competitive real exchange rates for profitability of exports in low-income countries (exchange rate-led strategy). Elbadawi tests the implications of these three views with an empirical model of manufactured export performance (manufactured exports' share of GDP), using a panel of 41 countries for 1980-95. His findings: ° Corroborate the predictions of the transaction thesis, in that transaction costs are major determinants of manufactures exports. Investing in reducing these costs generates the highest payoff for export capacity. ° Lend support for the exchange rate-led strategy. After controlling for other factors, ratios of natural resources per worker were not robustly associated with export performance across countries, but this cannot be taken as formal rejection of the endowment thesis - unless one is prepared to assume that manufactured exports' share of GDP was highly correlated with ratios of manufactured to aggregate (or primary) exports. But this is not unlikely. This paper-a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to research manufactures exports' competitiveness. The author may be contacted at ielbadawiworldbank.org
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  • 32
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    Quantifying the Fiscal Effects of Trade Reform (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (58 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Devarajan, Shantayanan Quantifying the Fiscal Effects of Trade Reform
    Keywords: Consumers, demand, elasticity, elasticity of substitution, equilibrium, exports, goods, income, open economy, outcomes, prices, revenue, taxation, taxes, total revenue, Trade, trade balance, trade liberalization, utility, welfare ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Policy ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Consumers, demand, elasticity, elasticity of substitution, equilibrium, exports, goods, income, open economy, outcomes, prices, revenue, taxation, taxes, total revenue, Trade, trade balance, trade liberalization, utility, welfare ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Policy ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning
    Abstract: August 1999 - A general equilibrium tax model estimated for 60 countries provides a simple but rigorous method for estimating the fiscal impact of trade reform. Using a tax model of an open economy, Devarajan, Go, and Li provide a simple but rigorous method for estimating the fiscal impact of trade reform. Both the direction and the magnitude of the fiscal consequences of trade reform depend on the elasticities of substitution and transformation between foreign and domestic goods, so they provide empirical estimates of those elasticities. They also discuss the implications of their analysis for public revenue. In general, they find that it matters what the values of the two elasticities are relative to each other. If only one of the elasticities is low (close to zero), revenue will drop unequivocally as a result of tariff reform, reaching close to the maximum drop whether or not the other elasticity is high. For imports to grow and tariff collection to compensate for the tax cut, the import elasticity has to be high. Because of the balance of trade constraint, however, imports cannot substitute for domestic goods unless supply is able to switch toward exports. Hence, the export transformation elasticity has to be high as well. As substitution possibilities between foreign and domestic goods increase, a tariff reform can theoretically be self-financing. But if the elasticities are less than large, tax revenue will fall with tariff reduction and further fiscal adjustments will be necessary. Devarajan, Go, and Li provide empirical estimates of the possible range of values for the elasticities of about 60 countries, using various approaches. The elasticities range from 0 to only 3 in most cases - nowhere near the point at which tariff reform can be self-financing. This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to develop and apply tools to analyze fiscal reform. The authors may be contacted at sdevarajanworldbank.org, dgo@worldbank.org
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  • 33
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    Does Corruption Relieve Foreign Investors of the Burden of Taxes and Capital Controls? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (18 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Wei, Shang-Jin Does Corruption Relieve Foreign Investors of the Burden of Taxes and Capital Controls?
    Keywords: Capital Account ; Capital Control ; Capital Controls ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Capital ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Firms ; Foreign Investment ; Foreign Investors ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; International Investors ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Price ; Private Sector Development ; Public Policy ; Share ; Tax ; Tax Rate ; Tax Rates ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes ; Capital Account ; Capital Control ; Capital Controls ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Capital ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Firms ; Foreign Investment ; Foreign Investors ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; International Investors ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Price ; Private Sector Development ; Public Policy ; Share ; Tax ; Tax Rate ; Tax Rates ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes
    Abstract: October 1999 - Other things being equal, countries with higher tax rates, more corruption, or more restrictions on capital account transactions attract less foreign investment. Taxes and capital controls hinder foreign investment, and bureaucratic corruption adds to those burdens rather than reducing them. In a sample of 14 source countries making bilateral investments in 45 host countries, Wei finds that taxes, capital controls, and corruption all have large, statistically significant negative effects on foreign investment. Moreover, there is no robust support in the data for the efficient grease hypothesis - that corruption helps attract foreign investment by reducing firms' tax burden and the irritant of capital controls. This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study effective anticorruption strategies. It will appear as a chapter in a book on taxation and foreign direct investment edited by James Hines Jr. and to be published by the University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research. The author may be contacted at sweiworldbank.org
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  • 34
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    The Effect of the United States' Granting Most Favored Nation Status to Vietnam (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will The Effect of the United States' Granting Most Favored Nation Status to Vietnam
    Keywords: Agribusiness and Markets ; Agricultural Commodities ; Apparel ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; Exporters ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Free Trade ; General Equilibrium Model ; High Tariffs ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Metal Products ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Tariff ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Agribusiness and Markets ; Agricultural Commodities ; Apparel ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; Exporters ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Free Trade ; General Equilibrium Model ; High Tariffs ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Metal Products ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Tariff ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: November 1999 - If the United States grants Vietnam most favored nation status, both countries would benefit. Vietnamese exports to the United States would more than double, and Vietnam would gain substantial welfare benefits from improved market access and increased availability of imports. For the United States, lowering the current high tariffs against Vietnam would improve welfare by reducing costly diversion away from Vietnamese products. Since the U.S. embargo on trade with Vietnam was lifted in 1994, exports from Vietnam to the United States have risen dramatically. However, Vietnam remains one of the few countries to which the United States has not yet granted most favored nation (MFN) status. The general tariff rates that the United States imposes average 35 percent compared with 4.9 percent for the MFN rate. Granting MFN status to Vietnam would improve its terms of trade and help improve the efficiency of resource allocation in the country. Better access to the U.S. market would increase the volume of Vietnamese exports to the United States and the prices received for them while also reducing their costs to U.S. users. Fukase and Martin use a computable general equilibrium model to examine the effects of reducing U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese imports from general rates to MFN rates. They estimate tariff changes using the U.S. tariff schedule for 1997 weighted by Vietnam's exports to the United States. The results suggest that after a change to MFN status for Vietnam, its exports to the United States would more than double, from the 1996 baseline of
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  • 35
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    What's Behind Mercosur's Common External Tariff? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Soloaga, Isidro What's Behind Mercosur's Common External Tariff?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Tariff ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Prices ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Multilateral System ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Share Of World Exports ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Structures ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Effects ; Trade Externalities ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Prices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Tariff ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Prices ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Multilateral System ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Share Of World Exports ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Structures ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Effects ; Trade Externalities ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Prices
    Abstract: Most researchers focus on the political economy (interest group pressures) approach to analyzing why customs unions are formed, but terms-of-trade effects were also important in formation of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (Mercosur). Terms-of-trade externalities among Mercosur's members have been internalized in the common external tariff. - The theoretical literature on trade follows two different approaches to explaining the endogenous formation of customs unions: (1) The terms-of-trade approach, in which integrating partners are willing to exploit terms-of-trade effects. Using the terms-of-trade approach, one concludes that tariffs on imports from the rest of the world should increase after the formation of a regional bloc, because the market power of the region increases and terms-of-trade externalities can be internalized in the custom union's common external tariff. As the union forms, the domestic market gets larger and members' international market power increases. (2) The interest group pressures (political economy) approach, in which, for example, the customs union may offer the potential for exchanging markets or protection within the enlarged market. Using this approach, one would usually conclude that tariffs for the rest of the world decline after the custom union's formation - a rationale related to free-rider effects in larger lobbying groups. It is important to recognize the forces behind the formation of customs unions. Most researchers have focused on the second approach and neglected terms of trade as a possible explanatory variable. Both rationales explain a significant share of tariff information. Results, write Olarreaga, Soloaga, and Winters, suggest that both forces were important in formation of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (Mercosur). Terms-of-trade effects account for between 6 percent and 28 percent of the explained variation in the structure of protection. There is also evidence that the terms-of-trade externalities among Mercosur's members have been internalized in the common external tariff. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the political economy of trade protection. Marcelo Olarreaga may be contacted at molarreagaworldbank.org
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  • 36
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    International Contagion : Implications for Policy (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Majnoni, Giovanni International Contagion
    Keywords: Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Crises ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debts ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Contagion ; Financial Crises ; Financial Fragility ; Foreign Interest ; Guarantees ; Interest Rates ; International Financial Contagion ; International Investors ; Liability ; Liquidity ; Market ; Maturity ; Options ; Policy Responses ; Private Sector Development ; Short-Term Debt ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Crises ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debts ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Contagion ; Financial Crises ; Financial Fragility ; Foreign Interest ; Guarantees ; Interest Rates ; International Financial Contagion ; International Investors ; Liability ; Liquidity ; Market ; Maturity ; Options ; Policy Responses ; Private Sector Development ; Short-Term Debt
    Abstract: March 2000 - What can the international community do to prevent financial contagion? Chang and Majnoni try to identify and evaluate the public policy implications of financial contagion on the basis of a very simple model of financial crises. In this model, financial contagion can be driven by a combination of fundamentals and by self-fulfilling market expectations. The model allows the authors to identify different notions of contagion, especially the distinction between monsoonal effects, spillovers, and switchers between equilibria. They discuss both domestic and international policy options. Domestic policies, they say, should be aimed at reducing financial fragility - that is, reducing unnecessary short-term debt commitments. With explicit commitments, the maturity of external debts should be lengthened. With implicit commitments, such as private liability guarantees, they emphasize limiting or eliminating such guarantees, to improve an economy's international liquidity and reduce its exposure to contagion. Internationally, they stress the need for improving financial standards, which makes it easier to assess when a country is subject to different kinds of contagion. The effectiveness of international rescue packages depends on the kind of contagion to which a country is exposed. Implications: The international community should help those countries that are already helping themselves. This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the determinants and policy implications of international financial contagion. The author Giovanni Majnoni may be contacted at gmajnoniworldbank.org
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  • 37
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    How Small Should an Economy's Fiscal Deficit Be? : A Monetary Programming Approach (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Beckerman, Paul How Small Should an Economy's Fiscal Deficit Be?
    Keywords: Bank Assets ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial System ; Fiscal Defic Future ; Government Borrowing ; Government Defic Inflation ; Instruments ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Levy ; Liabilities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Reserve ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Stocks ; Bank Assets ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial System ; Fiscal Defic Future ; Government Borrowing ; Government Defic Inflation ; Instruments ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Levy ; Liabilities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Reserve ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Stocks
    Abstract: March 2000 - A spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a specified vector of country macroeconomic objectives. Beckerman describes a spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a policymaker's vector of principal macroeconomic objectives (including real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate, and international reserve accumulation). The model focuses on the monetary accounts, applying balance-of-payments forecasts formulated separately but based on the same macroeconomic objectives. The model is a consistency exercise, intended as part of a broader consistency exercise for a given macroeconomy. It offers one more perspective on the question of how large a government deficit should be - a perspective that can be used in conjunction with others. For each forecast period, the model determines consistent period-end and period-average stocks for the economy's outstanding central bank assets and liabilities and government obligations. It applies forecasting assumptions about interest rates to forecast central bank profit-and-loss flows, and takes account of these in determining the overall flow of resources that would be available to finance the government deficit. An annex describes a (purely illustrative) simulation carried out during 1999 for Ecuador. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to strengthen the tools for macroeconomic policy analysis and planning in the region's economies. The author may be contacted at pbeckermanworldbank.org
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  • 38
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    Inflation and the Poor (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Easterly, William Inflation and the Poor
    Keywords: Access to Markets ; Bank ; Bonds ; Checks ; Cred Education ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Instruments ; Financial Literacy ; Health Indicators ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; ICT Applications ; ICT for Health ; Income ; Incomes ; Inflation ; Inflation ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Minimum Wage ; Money ; Pensions ; Poverty Rate ; Poverty Rates ; Probabilities ; Research Assistance ; Stocks ; Subsidies ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Access to Markets ; Bank ; Bonds ; Checks ; Cred Education ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Instruments ; Financial Literacy ; Health Indicators ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; ICT Applications ; ICT for Health ; Income ; Incomes ; Inflation ; Inflation ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Minimum Wage ; Money ; Pensions ; Poverty Rate ; Poverty Rates ; Probabilities ; Research Assistance ; Stocks ; Subsidies ; Unemployment ; Wages
    Abstract: May 2000 - The poor suffer more from inflation than the rich do, reveals this survey of poor people in 38 countries. Using polling data for 31,869 households in 38 countries and allowing for country effects, Easterly and Fischer show that the poor are more likely than the rich to mention inflation as a top national concern. This result survives several robustness checks. Also, direct measures of improvements in well-being for the poor - the change in their share of national income, the percentage decline in poverty, and the percentage change in the real minimum wage - are negatively correlated with inflation in pooled cross-country samples. High inflation tends to lower the share of the bottom quintile and the real minimum wage - and tends to increase poverty. This paper - a joint product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group, and the International Monetary Fund - is part of a larger effort to study the effects of macroeconomic policies on growth and poverty
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  • 39
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    Should Credit Be Given for Autonomous Liberalization in Multilateral Trade Negotiations? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Should Credit Be Given for Autonomous Liberalization in Multilateral Trade Negotiations?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Dispute Settlement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Liberalization ; Multilateral Negotiations ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Tariff ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Terms Of Trade Loss ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Unilateral Liberalization ; Unilateral Reduction ; Unilateral Tariff Reduction ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Dispute Settlement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Liberalization ; Multilateral Negotiations ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Tariff ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Terms Of Trade Loss ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Unilateral Liberalization ; Unilateral Reduction ; Unilateral Tariff Reduction ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: June 2000 - As each new round of multilateral trade negotiations approaches, there is a demand for a negotiating rule that would give credit for previous unilateral liberalization. The feasibility and desirability of such a rule depend on when it is instituted. As each new round of multilateral trade negotiations approaches, there is a demand for a negotiating rule that would give credit for autonomous (unilateral) liberalization. Mattoo and Olarreaga show that the feasibility and desirability of such a rule depend on when it is instituted. A credit rule established at the beginning of a round of negotiations has a primarily distributional effect, favoring those who have already undertaken liberalization. Implementing such a rule would depend on the generosity of those who have not liberalized. The authors propose instead establishing a credit rule at the end of a round of negotiations, which creates an ex ante assurance that any unilateral liberalization will receive credit in the next round. Such a rule would help induce or enhance liberalization in some countries between negotiating rounds by reducing the gains from retaining protection as negotiating currency. More strikingly, it could also lead to deeper levels of multilateral liberalization and induce other countries to go further than they would in the absence of a rule. Most important, such an ex ante rule would not rely on altruism to be generally acceptable. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to improve trade policy in goods and services. The authors may be contacted at amattooworldbank.org or molarreaga@worldbank.org
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