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  • English  (14)
  • 2005-2009  (14)
  • 1965-1969
  • Duval, Romain  (14)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (14)
  • Oxford : Oxford University Press
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  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (14)
  • Oxford : Oxford University Press
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation : How to Build the Necessary Global Action in a Cost-Effective Manner (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 128 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.701
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the cost of a range of national, regional and global mitigation policies and the corresponding incentives for countries to participate in ambitious international mitigation actions. The paper illustrates the scope for available instruments to strengthen these incentives and discusses ways to overcome barriers to the development of an international carbon price, based on the quantitative assessment from two global and sectorially-disaggregated CGE models. Key step towards the emergence of a single international carbon price will most likely involve the phasing out of subsidies of fossil fuel consumption and various forms of linking between regional carbon markets, ranging from direct linking of existing emission trading systems to more indirect forms through the use of sectoral crediting mechanisms. The paper discusses regulatory issues raised by the expansion of emission trading and crediting schemes as well as the complementary contribution of non-market based instruments such as the imposition of technical standards and R&D policies. Finally, the paper emphasises the important role of international transfers, not least to overcome the relatively strong economic incentives in some countries to free ride on other regions mitigation actions. While they can take various explicit or implicit forms, transfers made primarily through market mechanisms, for instance via the allocation of binding emission reduction commitments across countries, would be most cost-effective.
    DOI: 10.1787/224074334782
    URL: Volltext
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  • 2
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    The Incentives to Participate in and the Stability of International Climate Coalitions : A Game-Theoretic Approach Using the WITCH Model (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 74 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.702
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper uses WITCH, an integrated assessment model with a game-theoretic structure, to explore the prospects for, and the stability of broad coalitions to achieve ambitious climate change mitigation action. Only coalitions including all large emitting regions are found to be technically able to meet a concentration stabilisation target below 550 ppm CO2eq by 2100. Once the free-riding incentives of non-participants are taken into account, only a “grand coalition” including virtually all regions can be successful. This grand coalition is profitable as a whole, implying that all countries can gain from participation provided appropriate transfers are made across them. However, neither the grand coalition nor smaller but still environmentally significant coalitions appear to be stable. This is because the collective welfare surplus from cooperation is not found to be large enough for transfers to offset the free-riding incentives of all countries simultaneously. Some factors omitted from the analysis, which might improve coalition stability, include the co-benefits from mitigation action, the costless removal of fossil fuel subsidies, as well as alternative assumptions regarding countries’ bargaining behaviour.
    DOI: 10.1787/223552487415
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  • 3
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    Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 30 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.663
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper develops and applies a simple “conditional growth” framework to make long-term GDP projections for the world economy, taking as a starting point recent empirical evidence about the importance of total factor productivity and human capital in explaining current cross-country disparities in GDP per capita levels. Other distinct features of the projection framework include human capital projections by cohorts and implicit allowance for the impact of ageing and potential labour market and pension reforms on future growth in employment levels. In the baseline projection, world GDP would grow in PPP terms by about 3 ¾ % per year on average over the period 2005-2050. When expressed in constant market exchange rates, taking into account future Balassa-Samuelson effects, this projection falls roughly in the middle of the range of long-run scenarios recently developed in the context of greenhouse gas emission projections. The sensitivity of the projection to total factor productivity and population growth assumptions is significant, however, and compounds with deeper sources of uncertainty such as model and parameter uncertainty.
    DOI: 10.1787/227205684023
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  • 4
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    The Role of R&D and Technology Diffusion in Climate Change Mitigation : New Perspectives Using the WITCH Model (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 54 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.664
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper uses the WITCH model, a computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technological change, to explore the impact of various climate policies on energy technology choices and the costs of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations. Current and future expected carbon prices appear to have powerful effects on R&D spending and clean technology diffusion. Their impact on stabilisation costs depends on the nature of R&D: R&D targeted at incremental energy efficiency improvements has only limited effects, but R&D focused on the emergence of major new low-carbon technologies could lower costs drastically if successful – especially in the non-electricity sector, where such low-carbon options are scarce today. With emissions coming from multiple sources, keeping a wide range of options available matters more for stabilisation costs than improving specific technologies. Due to international knowledge spillovers, stabilisation costs could be further reduced through a complementary, global R&D policy. However, a strong price signal is always required.
    DOI: 10.1787/227114657270
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  • 5
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    Oil Price Shocks, Rigidities and the Conduct of Monetary Policy : Some Lessons from a New Keynesian Perspective (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 41 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.603
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The strong and sustained rise in oil prices observed in recent years poses a challenge to monetary policy and its ability to simultaneously achieve low inflation and stable output. Against this background, the paper studies monetary policy in a small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model including oil as a production input and a component of final demand. It investigates the performance of alternative price level definitions, notably headline and core CPI, in standard interest rate rules with respect to output and inflation stabilisation. The analysis puts special emphasis on the impact of price and real wage rigidity and their interaction on the policy trade-off induced by the oil price shock. While the degree of price rigidity alone is found to have little impact on the shock transmission and generates only small differences between alternative monetary strategies, the simulations suggest a more important role for real wage stickiness. Real wage stickiness triggers second round effects and complicates stabilisation whatever the policy rule. A focus on core inflation tends to limit the contraction of output in this context. The results also point to some interaction between nominal price and real wage rigidities. In the presence of real wage rigidity, greater price flexibility is found to be destabilising, as it amplifies the initial inflation effect of shocks, thereby triggering a stronger monetary policy response and a larger output effect.
    DOI: 10.1787/242188534400
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  • 6
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    The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation : Policies and Options for the Future (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 129 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.658
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Considering the costs and risks of inaction, ambitious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is economically rational. However, success in abating world emissions will ultimately require a least-cost set of policy instruments that is applied as widely as possible across all emission sources (countries, sectors and greenhouse gases). The main purpose of this paper is to explore feasible ways to meet these two basic requirements for successful future climate policies. Using a range of modelling frameworks, it analyses cost-effective policy mixes to reduce emissions, the implications of incomplete coverage of policies for the costs of mitigation action and carbon leakage, the role of technology-support policies in lowering future emissions and policy costs, as well as the incentives –and possible options to enhance them – for emitting countries to take action against climate change.
    DOI: 10.1787/228868001868
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  • 7
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    A Taxonomy of Instruments to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions and their Interactions (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 42 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.636
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper reviews alternative (national and international) climate change mitigation policy instruments and interactions across them. Carbon taxes, cap-and-trade schemes, standards and technology-support policies (R&D and clean technology deployment) in particular are assessed according to three broad costeffectiveness criteria, their: i) static efficiency, defined to cover not just whether the instrument is costeffective per se but also whether it provides sufficient political incentives for wide adoption; ii) dynamic efficiency, which implies an efficient level of innovation and diffusion of clean technologies in order to lower future abatement costs; iii) ability to cope effectively with climate and economic uncertainties. Multiple market failures and political economy obstacles need to be addressed in order to meet these criteria. In this regard, carbon taxes or cap-and-trade schemes appear to perform better than alternatives. However, their cost-effectivenes can be enhanced through targeted use of other instruments. There is therefore room for climate policy packages.
    DOI: 10.1787/236846121450
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  • 8
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    Economic resilience to shocks : The role of structural policies (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-38
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 38 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Résilience économique aux chocs : Le rôle des politiques structurelles
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-38
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Cyclical fluctuations in economic activity have moderated over time but the extent and dynamics of volatility remain different across OECD countries. A reason behind this heterogeneity is that countries exhibit different degrees of resilience in the face of common shocks. This paper traces divergences in resilience back to different policy settings and institutions in labour, product and financial markets. Using pooled regression analysis across 20 OECD countries over the period 1982-2003, the paper identifies the impact of policy settings on two dimensions of resilience: the impact effect of a shock and its subsequent persistence. Policies and institutions associated with rigidities in labour and product markets are found to dampen the initial impact of shocks but to make their effects more persistent, while policies allowing for deep mortgage markets lower persistence and thereby improve resilience. Combining these two dimensions of resilience, the paper then uses the estimated equations to derive indicators of resilience for the OECD countries concerned, based on their current or recent policy settings. Three groups of countries emerge. In English-speaking countries, simulations suggest shocks have a significant initial effect on activity but this impact then dies out relatively quickly. By contrast, in many continental European countries the initial impact of shocks is cushioned but their effect linger for longer, with the cumulated output loss tending to be larger than in English-speaking countries. Finally a few, mostly small, European countries combine cushioning of the initial shock with a fairly quick return to baseline.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2008-art6-en
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  • 9
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    Structural Policies and Economic Resilience to Shocks (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 53 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.567
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Cyclical fluctuations in economic activity have moderated over time but the extent and dynamics of volatility remain different across OECD countries. A reason behind this heterogeneity is that countries exhibit different degrees of resilience in the face of common shocks. This paper traces divergences in resilience back to different policy settings and institutions in labour, product and financial markets. Using pooled regression analysis across 20 OECD countries over the period 1982-2003, the paper identifies the impact of policy settings on two dimensions of resilience: the impact effect of a shock and its subsequent persistence. Policies and institutions associated with rigidities in labour and product markets are found to dampen the initial impact of shocks but to make their effects more persistent, while policies allowing for deep mortgage markets lower persistence and thereby improve resilience. Combining these two dimensions of resilience, the paper then uses the estimated equations to derive indicators of resilience for the OECD countries concerned, based on their current or recent policy settings. Three groups of countries emerge. In English-speaking countries, simulations suggest shocks have a significant initial effect on activity but this impact then dies out relatively quickly. By contrast, in many continental European countries the initial impact of shocks is cushioned but their effect linger for longer, with the cumulated output loss tending to be larger than in English-speaking countries. Finally a few, mostly small, European countries combine cushioning of the initial shock with a fairly quick return to baseline.
    DOI: 10.1787/140152385131
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  • 10
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    The determinants of unemployment across OECD countries : Reassessing the role of policies and institutions (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2006, no. 1, p. 7-86
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 89 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Les déterminants du chômage dans les pays de l'OCDE : Une réévaluation du rôle des politiques et des institutions
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2006, no. 1, p. 7-86
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Andrea Bassanini and Romain Duval are economists at the Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs and the OECD Economics Department, respectively. Catherine Chapuis-Grabiner, Sébastien Martin and Rebecca Oyomopito provided excellent research assistance. Comments from Sveinbjorn Blöndal, Wendy Carlin, Jean-Philippe Cotis, Martine Durand, Jorgen Elmeskov, Michael P. Feiner, David Howell, Etienne Lehmann, Edmond Malinvaud, John P. Martin, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Stefano Scarpetta, Paul Swaim, Raymond Torres and participants to the joint WP1/WP5 EPC-ELSAC meeting in Paris, January 2006, and the Séminaire Fourgeaud, Paris, May 2006, are also gratefully acknowledged. Any errors are the responsibilities of the authors alone. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of its member countries.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2006-art2-en
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  • 11
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    Employment Patterns in OECD Countries : Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 127 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.486
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of policies and institutions on employment and unemployment of OECD countries in the past decades. Reduced-form unemployment equations, consistent with standard wage setting/price-setting models, are estimated using cross-country/time-series data from 21 OECD countries over the period 1982-2003. In the "average" OECD country, high and long-lasting unemployment benefits, high tax wedges and stringent anti- competitive product market regulation are found to increase aggregate unemployment. By contrast, highly centralised and/or coordinated wage bargaining systems are estimated to reduce unemployment. These findings are robust across specifications, datasets and econometric methods. As policies and institutions affect employment not only via their impact on aggregate unemployment but also through their effects on labour market participation - particularly for those groups "at the margin" of the labour market, group-specific employment rate equations are also estimated. In the "average" OECD country, high unemployment benefits and high tax wedges are found to be associated with lower employment prospects for all groups studied, namely prime-age males, females, older workers and youths. There is also evidence that group-specific policy determinants matter, such as targeted fiscal incentives. The paper also finds significant evidence of interactions across policies and institutions, as well as between institutions and macroeconomic conditions. Consistent with theory, structural reforms appear to have mutually reinforcing effects: the impact of a given policy reform is greater the more employment-friendly the overall policy and institutional framework. Certain more specific interactions across policies and institutions are found to be particularly robust, notably between unemployment benefits and public spending on active labour market programmes as well as between statutory minimum wages and the tax wedge. Finally, it is shown that macroeconomic conditions also matter for unemployment patterns, with their impact being shaped by policies.
    DOI: 10.1787/846627332717
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  • 12
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    Employment Patterns in OECD Countries : Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 131 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers no.35
    Keywords: Social Issues/Migration/Health
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of policies and institutions on employment and unemployment of OECD countries in the past decades. Reduced-form unemployment equations, consistent with standard wage setting/pricesetting models, are estimated using cross-country/time-series data from 21 OECD countries over the period 1982- 2003. In the “average” OECD country, high and long-lasting unemployment benefits, high tax wedges and stringent anti-competitive product market regulation are found to increase aggregate unemployment. By contrast, highly centralised and/or coordinated wage bargaining systems are estimated to reduce unemployment. These findings are robust across specifications, datasets and econometric methods. As policies and institutions affect employment not only via their impact on aggregate unemployment but also through their effects on labour market participation - particularly for those groups “at the margin” of the labour market, group-specific employment rate equations are also estimated. In the “average” OECD country, high unemployment benefits and high tax wedges are found to be associated with lower employment prospects for all groups studied, namely prime-age males, females, older workers and youths. There is also evidence that group-specific policy determinants matter, such as targeted fiscal incentives.
    DOI: 10.1787/702031136412
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  • 13
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    Assessing the OECD Jobs Strategy : Past Developments and Reforms (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 73 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.429
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: In 1994, the OECD published a set of recommendations -- known as the OECD Jobs Strategy -- to deal with high and persistent unemployment that affected many member countries. These recommendations are currently being reassessed by the OECD and this paper contributes to this process. It provides a detailed description of labour market reforms in member countries over the past ten years, together with a short overview of changes in macroeconomic policies and reforms affecting product markets. It attempts to rank countries according with their past reform efforts, using an aggregate reform intensity indicator, and analyses the link, though in a very preliminary way, between reforms and labour market performance. Overall, there is little evidence of a link between initial conditions and subsequent reform efforts, with some countries taking only modest measures despite a poor starting point, while others carrying out ambitious programs even though their initial conditions were already relatively favourable. Over the past decade, member countries have employed very diverse reform strategies, from comprehensive reforms package (Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands) -- as recommended in the initial Jobs Strategy -- to reforms more narrowly targeted on specific fields where deep action was undertaken (France, Italy, the United Kingdom and Ireland). The intensity of reforms has differed markedly across policy fields, with more action being undertaken in areas that are more widely accepted by the population, such as active labour market policies and cuts of labour taxes. Please note that annexes are available on the Economics Department Website at: www.oecd.org/eco/Working_Papers.
    DOI: 10.1787/673876504152
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  • 14
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    The Effects of EMU on Structural Reforms in Labour and Product Markets (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 44 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.438
    Keywords: Economics ; Euro Area
    Abstract: Structural reforms in labour and product markets are required in a number of euro-area countries. A question in this regard, which is the topic of this paper, is whether belonging to the euro area tends to help or hinder structural reform. The paper first reviews the theoretical arguments and the existing empirical literature – in both cases finding conclusions that point in opposite directions. Next, the paper uses an OECD database on labour market reform developed recently and an update of OECD indicators of product market regulation to compare progress in labour and product market reform over the decade since 1993 between euro-area countries and other OECD countries. Overall, euro-area countries appear to have made relatively good progress in structural reform but it is much less clear from the descriptive evidence whether progress can be ascribed to membership of Economic and Monetary Union. To explore further the role of monetary regime for structural reform, the paper undertakes an econometric examination of the likelihood that countries undertake reform in five specific areas of labour and product market policies. Based on pooled cross-country/time series Probit regressions covering 21 countries and the period 1985-2003, it is found that structural reform is strengthened by high unemployment, crisis as reflected in a large output gap, healthy public finances, reforms in other policy fields and small country size. Further, countries that pursue fixed exchange-rate regimes or participate in monetary union, and therefore have little or no monetary autonomy, appear to undertake less structural reform – with the effect possibly being concentrated on large countries.
    DOI: 10.1787/830757326248
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