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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (5)
  • Hallegatte, Stephane  (5)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (5)
  • Environment  (4)
  • Social Development
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Trinh, Trong-Anh Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? An Updated Review
    Keywords: Chronic Poverty ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; Global Warming ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Transient Poverty
    Abstract: This paper offers an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperature on poverty across different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is inconclusive evidence on climate change impacts on inequality. Further analysis of a recently constructed global database at the subnational unit level derived from official national household income and consumption surveys shows that temperature change has larger impacts in the short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than transient poverty. The results are robust to different model specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more pronounced for poorer countries. The findings offer relevant inputs into current efforts to fight climate change
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Liotta, Charlotte Efficiency and Equity in Urban Flood Management Policies: A Systematic Urban Economics Exploration
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Impacts ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Disaster Risk Management ; Environment ; Flood Control ; Hazard Risk Management ; Inequality ; Land Use Zoning ; Municipal and Civil Engineering ; Risk-Based Insurance ; Subsidized Insurance ; Urban Development ; Urban Economics ; Urban Floods ; Urban Housing and Land Settlements ; Urban Poverty ; Welfare
    Abstract: Flood exposure is likely to increase in the future as a direct consequence of more frequent and more intense flooding and the growth of populations and economic assets in flood-prone areas. Low-income households, which are more likely to be located in high-risk zones, will be particularly affected. This paper assesses the welfare and equity impacts of three flood management policies-risk-based insurance, zoning, and subsidized insurance-using an urban economics framework with two income groups and three potential flood locations. The paper shows that in a first-best setting, risk-based insurance maximizes social welfare. However, depending on flood characteristics, implementing a zoning policy or subsidized insurance is close to optimal and can be more feasible. Subsidizing insurance reduces upward pressure on housing rents but increases flood damage, and is recommended for rare floods occurring in a large part of a city. Zoning policies have the opposite effect, avoiding damage but increasing housing rents, and are recommended for frequent floods in small areas. The social welfare impact of choosing the wrong flood management policy depends on the location of floods relative to employment centers, with flooding close to employment centers being particularly harmful. Implementing flood management policies redistributes flood costs between high- and low-income households through land markets, irrespective of who is directly affected. As such, they are progressive in terms of equity, compared to a laissez-faire scenario with myopic anticipations, in the more common scenario where poorer populations are more exposed to urban floods. But their impacts on inequality depend on flood locations and urban configuration. For instance, in a city where floods are centrally located and low-income households live in the city center, subsidized insurance would mitigate a surge in inequality, whereas a zoning policy could substantially increase inequalities
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hallegatte, Stephane The Macroeconomic Implications of a Transition to Zero Net Emissions: A Modeling Framework
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Mitigation Investment ; Decarbonization ; Fossil Fuel Transformation ; Macroeconomic Modeling ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Net-Zero Emissions Economy ; Social Development ; Technological Change
    Abstract: Analyzing the macroeconomic consequences of a transition to a net-zero economy creates specific modeling challenges, including those related to the non-marginal nature of the required transformation, the role of technologies, and the replacement of fossil fuel-based assets with greener ones. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a hybrid modeling approach that starts from a set of sectoral techno-economic scenarios to construct an illustrative resilient and net-zero decarbonization trajectory. It then assesses the macroeconomic implications by linking sectoral dynamics to two macroeconomic frameworks: a multisector general equilibrium framework and an aggregate macrostructural model. This approach combines the advantages of multiple tools and captures the various dimensions of the transition, including the need to tackle simultaneously multiple market failures beyond the carbon externality. The paper illustrates this methodology with Turkiye's objective to reach net zero emissions by 2053. The multisector general equilibrium framework suggests that the transition could contribute positively to Turkiye's economic growth despite the large investment needs, especially when indirect mitigation benefits are taken into account and if labor market frictions can be reduced. Improved energy efficiency in the transportation and building sectors drives the growth benefits in the short and medium terms. The growth benefits depend on how transition investments are financed: if they crowd out other productive investments, the benefits are significantly reduced and can even become slightly negative in the long term. The macrostructural model focuses on implications for public debt and the current account, using two extreme scenarios in which additional investments are triggered by higher productivity or a set of budget-neutral incentives (taxes and subsidies). The model concludes that the transition would have moderate impacts on the current account and public debt. With budget-neutral incentives, there is a small increase in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio increases by 1 to 3 percent, and the current account remains unchanged thanks to the reduction in fuel imports
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hallegatte, Stephane Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Disasters: A Modeling Proposal and Application to Floods and Earthquakes in Turkey
    Keywords: Damage To Infrastructure ; Environment ; Impact Of Climate ; Inflation ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Productivity Of Capital ; Monetary Policy ; Natural Disaster ; Trade and Investment
    Abstract: Turkey is vulnerable to natural disasters that can generate substantial damages to public and private sector infrastructure capital. Earthquakes and floods are the most frequent hazards today, and flood risks are expected to increase with climate change. To ensure stability and growth and minimize the welfare impact of these disasters, these shocks need to be managed and accounted for in macro-fiscal and monetary policy. To support this process, the World Bank Macrostructural Model is adapted to assess the macroeconomic effects of natural (geophysical or climate-related) disasters. The macroeconomic model is extended on several fronts: (1) a distinction is made between infrastructure and non-infrastructure capital, with complementary or substitutability between the two categories; (2) the production function is adjusted to account for short-term complementarity across capital assets; (3) the reconstruction process is modeled in a way that accounts for post-disaster constraints, with distinct processes for the reconstruction of public and private assets. The results show that destroyed infrastructure capital makes the remaining non-infrastructure capital less productive, which means that disasters reduce the total stock of capital, but also its productivity. The welfare impact of a disaster-proxied by the discounted consumption loss-is found to increase non-linearly with direct asset losses. Macroeconomic responses reduce the welfare impact of minor disasters but magnify it when direct asset losses exceed the economy's absorption capacity. The welfare impact also depends on the pre-existing economic situation, the ability of the economy to reallocate resources toward reconstruction, and the response of the monetary policy. Appropriate macro-fiscal and monetary policies offer cost-effective opportunities to mitigate the welfare impact of major disasters
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rentschler, Jun Rapid Urban Growth in Flood Zones: Global Evidence since 1985
    Keywords: Adaptation ; Adaptation to Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Exposure ; Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Change Policy and Regulation ; Climate Risk ; Climatic Hazard ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Environment ; Flood Risk ; Hazardous Flood Zones ; High-Risk Flood Zones ; Human Settlements ; Public Sector Development ; Risky Growth ; Social Aspects of Climate Change ; Urban Flood Zone ; Urban Housing and Land Settlements ; Urbanization
    Abstract: As countries rapidly urbanize, settlements are expanding into hazardous flood zones. This study provides a global analysis of spatial urbanization patterns and the evolution of flood exposure between 1985 and 2015. Using high-resolution annual data, it shows that settlements across the world grew by 85 percent to over 1.28 million square kilometers. In the same period, settlements exposed to the highest flood hazard level increased by 122 percent. In many regions, risky growth is outpacing safe growth, particularly in East Asia, where high-risk settlements have expanded 60 percent faster than safe ones. Developing countries are driving the recent growth of flood exposure: 36,500 square kilometers of settlements were built in the world's highest-risk zones since 1985-82 percent of which are in low- and middle-income countries. In comparison, recent growth in high-income countries has been relatively slow and safe. These results document a divergence in countries' exposure to flood hazards. Rather than adapting their exposure to climatic hazards, many countries are actively increasing their exposure
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