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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (8)
  • 2005-2009  (8)
  • Bogetic, Zeljko  (4)
  • Loayza, Norman V.  (4)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (8)
  • Boston, MA :Safari,
  • Macroeconomics and Economic Growth  (8)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Achieving Accelerated And Shared Growth In Ghana : A MAMS-Based Analysis of Costs And Opportunities (2008)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (26 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bogetic, Zeljko Achieving Accelerated And Shared Growth In Ghana
    Keywords: Development Economics ; Development Goals ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human capital ; Human development ; Macroeconomic stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy ReseaRch ; Policy packages ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Rapid growth ; Unskilled labor ; Development Economics ; Development Goals ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human capital ; Human development ; Macroeconomic stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy ReseaRch ; Policy packages ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Rapid growth ; Unskilled labor ; Development Economics ; Development Goals ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human capital ; Human development ; Macroeconomic stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy ReseaRch ; Policy packages ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Rapid growth ; Unskilled labor
    Abstract: This paper relies on the recently developed Maquette for Millennium Development Goals Simulations (MAMS) model to assess the consistency of alternative scaling-up and policy packages for growth and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals in Ghana. In the baseline scenario, Ghana's strong near and medium-term growth outlook puts it in a good position to achieve the poverty Millennium Development Goal ahead of schedule, but other goals are likely to remain elusive before 2015. In the accelerated growth scenario-which addresses the major gaps in water and sanitation and other infrastructure-even more rapid growth and poverty reduction are possible, but important targets in the areas of education, health, and environment remain unattainable. Although growth is complementary to achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, the authors also find important growth-human development trade-offs in the near term. The estimates show that the resource requirements for achieving the key Millennium Development Goals by 2015 are large, reaching US
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Development Impact of The Illegality of Drug Trade (2008)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Keefer, Philip The Development Impact of The Illegality of Drug Trade
    Keywords: Conflict and Development ; Corruption ; Crime and Society ; Drug ; Drug Trade ; Drug trafficking ; Drugs ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Narcotic ; Narcotic drug ; Narcotic drugs ; Organized crime ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Social Development ; Violence ; Conflict and Development ; Corruption ; Crime and Society ; Drug ; Drug Trade ; Drug trafficking ; Drugs ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Narcotic ; Narcotic drug ; Narcotic drugs ; Organized crime ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Social Development ; Violence ; Conflict and Development ; Corruption ; Crime and Society ; Drug ; Drug Trade ; Drug trafficking ; Drugs ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Narcotic ; Narcotic drug ; Narcotic drugs ; Organized crime ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Social Development ; Violence
    Abstract: This essay reviews many of the less considered consequences of the war on drugs, particularly the consequences for developing countries, and weighs them against the evidence that exists regarding the likely efficacy of current strategies to curb drug use and trade. The most important unintended consequences of drug prohibition are the following. First, the large demand for drugs, particularly in developed countries, generates the possibility of massive profits to potential drug providers. Since they cannot be organized freely and under the protection of the law, they resort to the formation of organized crime groups, using violence and corruption as their means of survival and expansion. In severe cases, the challenge to the state is such that public stability and safety are severely compromised. Second, prohibition and its derived illegal market imply the expropriation of endowments and resources used to produce and trade drugs. In many instances, this entails the transfer of wealth from poor to rich countries and from poor peasants to rich (and ruthless) traders. Third, criminalization can exacerbate the net health effects of drug use. These consequences are so pernicious that they call for a fundamental review of drug policy around the world
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Cote D'ivoire Volatility, Shocks And Growth (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (37 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bogetic, Zeljko Cote D'ivoire Volatility, Shocks And Growth
    Keywords: Access to Markets ; Agriculture ; Cocoa Price ; Cocoa Prices ; Coffee Prices ; Commodity Prices ; Cotton Prices ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Power ; Markets and Market Access ; Price Indices ; Private Sector Development ; Volatility ; World Markets ; Access to Markets ; Agriculture ; Cocoa Price ; Cocoa Prices ; Coffee Prices ; Commodity Prices ; Cotton Prices ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Power ; Markets and Market Access ; Price Indices ; Private Sector Development ; Volatility ; World Markets ; Access to Markets ; Agriculture ; Cocoa Price ; Cocoa Prices ; Coffee Prices ; Commodity Prices ; Cotton Prices ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Power ; Markets and Market Access ; Price Indices ; Private Sector Development ; Volatility ; World Markets
    Abstract: Key economic variables in Cote d'Ivoire vary widely from their long-run trends, moving in multi-year cyclical patterns. Cocoa prices move with cycles in growth rates, capital stock, real exchange rates, terms of trade, cocoa production, and coffee production and output. These patterns have become more pronounced since the 1970s as volatility increased. This paper characterize these cycles, estimates the cocoa price-quantity relationship, and analyzes co-movements due to shocks generate a forecast. Three key conclusions follow. First, the economy of Cote d'Ivoire has experienced two fundamental transitions, one in 1976 related to cocoa, and another in 1994 related to exchange rates. From 1960 to 1976, world cocoa prices grew steadily, and then fell in real terms. The country's growth showed a similar pattern. An econometric model indicates that the relationship between cocoa price and quantity experienced a break in 1976 and provides evidence of Cote d'Ivoire's significant influence on world cocoa prices. Second, cocoa price shocks affect growth rates and trade indicators, and are important sources of volatility in the Cote d'Ivoire. The terms of trade and real exchange rate are also sources of volatility for growth and productivity. Third, a forecast of per-worker output based on these variables predicts continued declines in GDP per worker in Cote d'Ivoire for the near future. This dismal forecast implies the need for a radical and rapid improvement on political, security, and economic management to reverse the two and a half decades of economic decline
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Cote d'Ivoire : Competitiveness, Cocoa, And The Real Exchange Rate (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bogetic, Zeljko Cote d'Ivoire
    Keywords: Competitiveness ; Consumer Price Indices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Deflators ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP Deflator ; Gross Domestic Product ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Trade Competitiveness ; Value Added ; Wages ; Competitiveness ; Consumer Price Indices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Deflators ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP Deflator ; Gross Domestic Product ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Trade Competitiveness ; Value Added ; Wages ; Competitiveness ; Consumer Price Indices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Deflators ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP Deflator ; Gross Domestic Product ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Trade Competitiveness ; Value Added ; Wages
    Abstract: This paper explores competitiveness of Cote d'Ivoire's economy over a long period of 1960-2003 and its link with cocoa prices. The main conclusions are as follows. First, using four measures of real effective exchange rate (REER) for the 1960-2002 period, we track the evolution of REER and conclude, inter alia, that until 2003, REER remained well below its 1994 level. Second, we find that based on our measure of the multilateral REER with dynamic weights, which covers most recorded trade, France no longer dominates Cote d'Ivoire's trade. Instead, Cote d'Ivoire has diversified its set of trading partners. Unfortunately, it has also specialized in one export product, raw cocoa. This paper aims to contribute to the question to what extent do cocoa prices affect Cote d'Ivoire's competitiveness in world trade? Third, the answer to this question is that cocoa prices are an important determinant of Cote d'Ivoire's competitiveness. Similar to the case of a classic "Dutch Disease," increases in the real world price of a "natural resource" (i.e., cocoa) tend to result in the appreciation of the CFA franc and a loss in competitiveness. Econometric tests further confirm that 1994 was a "break-point" not only for growth and productivity (as documented in the two related papers) but also for trade competitiveness. Recent productivity per worker trends versus wages also seem to indicate slow growth in 1996-2000, without major improvement in competitiveness
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Cote d'Ivoire : From Success To Failure A Story of Growth, Specialization, And The Terms of Trade (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (45 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bogetic, Zeljko Cote d'Ivoire
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Economic Growth ; Economic History ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Human Capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Overvaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Productivity ; Real GDP ; Total Factor Productivity ; Total Factor Productivity Analysis ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Economic Growth ; Economic History ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Human Capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Overvaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Productivity ; Real GDP ; Total Factor Productivity ; Total Factor Productivity Analysis ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Economic Growth ; Economic History ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Human Capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Overvaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Productivity ; Real GDP ; Total Factor Productivity ; Total Factor Productivity Analysis
    Abstract: Real GDP per capita and capital stock in Cote d'Ivoire grew strongly from 1960 to 1979, but have declined ever since, for twenty-five years. As a result, the country has traveled a full circle from economic success to failure in little more than a generation. What are the long-term factors behind this dismal growth story? Are the Ivorian development problems mostly of recent origin? Or there are more fundamental, economic factors that explain its long term performance? Four principal conclusions are as follows: First, Cote d'Ivoire's long-term growth performance is not fully explained by temporary factors (e.g., CFA overvaluation or recent conflict). Longer term factors such as capital accumulation, productivity, and terms of trade are key to understanding the country's performance as is the policy of specialization in a single commodity--cocoa. Second, the long-term decline in per capita output started well before the currency overvaluation, and at a time of political stability, and is related to a major, secular deterioration in terms of trade that started after 1976. Third, total factor productivity estimates indicate that TFP per capita also grew until it hit a plateau in 1976-78, and then shrank thereafter, despite gains in human capital accumulation. Fourth, Cote d'Ivoire has pursued a policy of specialization in cocoa beans but this bet on a single commodity has ultimately failed. The strategy that brought prosperity during the 1970s resulted in a growth failure when cocoa prices began declining since 1976
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  • 6
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    The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability (2006)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (33 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman V The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability
    Keywords: Aggregate Output ; Business Cycle ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; External Shocks ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Depth ; Foreign Exchange ; Free Trade ; Growth ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Management ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Aggregate Output ; Business Cycle ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; External Shocks ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Depth ; Foreign Exchange ; Free Trade ; Growth ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Management ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Aggregate Output ; Business Cycle ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; External Shocks ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Depth ; Foreign Exchange ; Free Trade ; Growth ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Management ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The authors examine empirically how domestic structural characteristics related to openness and product- and factor-market flexibility influence the impact that terms-of-trade shocks can have on aggregate output. For this purpose, they apply an econometric methodology based on semi-structural vector auto-regressions to a panel of 90 countries with annual observations for the period 1974-2000. Using this methodology, the authors isolate and standardize the shocks, estimate their impact on GDP, and examine how this impact depends on the domestic conditions outlined above. They find that larger trade openness magnifies the output impact of external shocks, particularly the negative ones, while improvements in labor market flexibility and financial openness reduce their impact. Domestic financial depth has a more nuanced role in stabilizing the economy. It helps reduce the impact of external shocks particularly in environments of high exposure-that is, when trade and financial openness are high, firm entry is unrestricted, and labor markets are rigid
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    The Composition of Growth Matters For Poverty Alleviation (2006)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman V The Composition of Growth Matters For Poverty Alleviation
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Economic Growth ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Household Survey ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Income Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poor ; Poor Countries ; Poor Households ; Poor Individuals ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction Strategies ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Economic Growth ; Economic Growth ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Household Survey ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Income Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poor ; Poor Countries ; Poor Households ; Poor Individuals ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction Strategies ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Economic Growth ; Economic Growth ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Household Survey ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Income Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poor ; Poor Countries ; Poor Households ; Poor Individuals ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction Strategies ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This paper contributes to explain the cross-country heterogeneity of the poverty response to changes in economic growth. It does so by focusing on the structure of output growth. The paper presents a two-sector theoretical model that clarifies the mechanism through which the sectoral composition of growth and associated labor intensity can affect workers' wages and, thus, poverty alleviation. Then it presents cross-country empirical evidence that analyzes first, the differential poverty-reducing impact of sectoral growth at various levels of disaggregation, and the role of unskilled labor intensity in such differential impact. The paper finds evidence that not only the size of economic growth but also its composition matters for poverty alleviation, with the largest contributions from labor-intensive sectors (such as agriculture, construction, and manufacturing). The results are robust to the influence of outliers, alternative explanations, and various poverty measures
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Informality Trends And Cycles (2006)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (37 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman V Informality Trends And Cycles
    Keywords: Active Labor ; Business Cycle ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exogenous Variable ; Informal Economies ; Informal Economy ; Informal Employment ; Informal Labor Markets ; Informal Sector ; Labor ; Labor ; Labor Force ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Active Labor ; Business Cycle ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exogenous Variable ; Informal Economies ; Informal Economy ; Informal Employment ; Informal Labor Markets ; Informal Sector ; Labor ; Labor ; Labor Force ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Active Labor ; Business Cycle ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exogenous Variable ; Informal Economies ; Informal Economy ; Informal Employment ; Informal Labor Markets ; Informal Sector ; Labor ; Labor ; Labor Force ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This paper studies the trends and cycles of informal employment. It first presents a theoretical model where the size of informal employment is determined by the relative costs and benefits of informality and the distribution of workers' skills. In the long run, informal employment varies with the trends in these variables, and in the short run it reacts to accommodate transient shocks and to close the gap that separates it from its trend level. The paper then uses an error-correction framework to examine empirically informality's long- and short-run relationships. For this purpose, it uses country-level data at annual frequency for a sample of industrial and developing countries, with the share of self-employment in the labor force as the proxy for informal employment. The paper finds that, in the long run, informality is larger in countries that have lower GDP per capita and impose more costs to formal firms in the form of more rigid business regulations, less valuable police and judicial services, and weaker monitoring of informality. In the short run, informal employment is found to be counter-cyclical for the majority of countries, with the degree of counter-cyclicality being lower in countries with larger informal employment and better police and judicial services. Moreover, informal employment follows a stable, trend-reverting process. These results are robust to changes in the sample and to the influence of outliers, even when only developing countries are considered in the analysis
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