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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (33)
  • Online Resource  (33)
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  • 2015-2019  (33)
  • 2019  (33)
  • International Monetary Fund  (33)
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Abstract: This is an assessment of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand (SEC) and, secondarily, of certain self-regulatory organizations (SRO) that participate in the regulation of the capital markets of Thailand. This assessment was conducted in February, 2019 as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) conducted jointly by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The financial sector of Thailand shows strong growth and is dominated by banks, which are a major force in other components of the financial sector through separately licensed subsidiaries. The financial system's assets are equal to 259 percent of GDP (February 2018), with Thailand's 30 commercial banks (including 15 foreign branches or subsidiaries) holding 46 percent of financial sector assets and eight specialized (state-owned) financial institutions (SFIs) holding 15 percent. The three largest commercial banks account for 46 percent of banking sector assets, lower than that of its peer comparators. Banking sector growth, however, has been stagnant, growing to 156 percent of GDP (2018) from 153 percent (2012). Other segments of the financial sector have experienced higher growth in recent years. The market capitalization of the SET has grown to 104 percent of GDP (up from 67 percent of GDP in 2005, and from 37 percent of GDP in 2008). Insurance sector assets have grown from 10 percent of GDP in 2006 to over 22 percent of GDP in 2016
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Abstract: This report contains the assessments of BAHTNET and TSD based on the PFMI. The assessment was undertaken in the context of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) of Thailand in November 2018. The assessors were Gynedi Srinivas and Dorothee Delort of the World Bank's Payment Systems Development Group. The assessors would like to thank the Thai counterparts for their excellent cooperation and generous hospitality. The objective of the assessment was to identify potential risks related to the FMIs that may affect financial stability. While safe and efficient FMIs contribute to maintaining and promoting financial stability and economic growth, they may also concentrate risk. If not properly managed, FMIs can be sources of financial shocks, such as liquidity dislocations and credit losses, or a major channel through which these shocks are transmitted across domestic and international financial markets. The scope of the assessment includes two main FMIs as well as the authorities in Thailand responsible for regulation, supervision, and oversight of FMIs. BAHTNET and TSD are assessed against all relevant principles of the PFMI. The authorities, the BOT and the SEC, are assessed using the responsibilities for authorities of FMIs
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Abstract: The Thai insurance sector is a relatively small but growing part of the country's financial services industry. Insurance sector assets have grown from 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006 to over 22 percent of GDP in 2016, constituting 9 percent of total financial industry assets. Similarly, between 2008 and 2017, gross premiums written have grown at an average annual rate of approximately 16.9 percent, substantially above nominal GDP growth of 9.9 percent during the same period. As a result, the insurance penetration ratio (the ratio of premiums written to GDP) has gradually increased from 3.63 percent in 2008 to 5.39 percent in 2017. This paper provides an assessment of significant regulatory and supervisory practices in the insurance sector of Thailand. The assessment was conducted by Charles Michael Grist, Financial Sector Consultant, the World Bank Group, and A. Thomas Finnell, Financial Sector Consultant to the International Monetary Fund, from February 6 until February 22, 2019. The last review of the Thai insurance sector was conducted as part of an April 2008 Financial Sector Assessment Program Review (FSAP), but this review did not include a detailed assessment against the ICPs issued by the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS)
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Benin remains at moderate risk of external debt distress. The rating is unchanged from the previous November 2018 DSA. All the projected external debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline, but the ratio of the present value (PV) of external debt to exports exceeds its threshold in the case of an extreme shock to exports.1 With regard to total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt (external plus domestic), the overall risk of debt distress remains also moderate. The public debt-to-GDP ratio is below its prudent benchmark in the baseline scenario; however, the PV of public debt-to-GDP rises very slightly above its benchmark from 2024 until the end of the projection period under the real GDP shock scenario. Other factors motivating the overall rating include: the past evolution of domestic debt, the relatively high debt service burden, as well as the existence of contingent liabilities. Medium-term fiscal consolidation, sound public investment management, and enhanced debt management capacity are needed to reduce debt vulnerabilities
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: With some 19 million US Dollars (1.6 percent of GDP) in unresolved arrears to official bilateral creditors, Grenada remains in external public debt distress. However, debt appears sustainable reflecting favorable projected debt dynamics from substantial fiscal surpluses that are supported by the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL). Total public debt has declined from 108 percent of GDP in 2013 to 63.5 percent of GDP in 2018, with external public debt amounting to 44.5 percent of GDP. This reduction was made possible through fiscal consolidation that has been anchored by the FRL, robust economic growth, and a restructuring of Grenada's public debt. Going forward, continued adherence to the FRL and regularization of arrears will be needed to upgrade the risk rating. Debt should be further reduced and kept at levels needed to withstand the existing vulnerabilities to external shocks and natural disasters
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2019 Article IV Consultation, for the first time based on the revised framework for low-income countries. Results indicate moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt. However, the debt outlook remains vulnerable, especially to a deceleration in real GDP and exports growth and the depreciation of the KGS. To address these vulnerabilities, the authorities need to remain cautious when contracting and guaranteeing new debt, maintain fiscal discipline, improve public investment management, and continue improving the business environment to maintain the export potential of the country after the main gold mine will close in 2026
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: According to the updated Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)'s debt-carrying capacity was assessed as weak. DRC remains at a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. The debt coverage has been improved since the last DSA, especially on domestic debt. The external nominal debt ratios are lower than at the time of the 2015 debt sustainability analysis (DSA), however the country shows vulnerability in debt repayment capacity, even under the baseline, due to weak revenue mobilization. Most external debt thresholds are breached under the stress tests, highlighting the country's vulnerability to external shocks. Given limited buffers, prudent borrowing policies are essential by prioritizing concessional loans and strengthening debt management policies
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) remains at high risk of debt distress under the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF). Unless the compact agreement with the United States or parts of it are renewed, the FSM will face a fiscal cliff when the U.S. Compact grants amounting to 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) are expected to expire in FY2023. Under the baseline scenario without fiscal adjustments, the fiscal cliff would put debt on an upward trajectory starting in FY2024, with the external debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 30 percent in FY2029 and 57 percent in FY2039, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 43 percent in FY2029 and 67 percent in FY2039. As a result, the DSF thresholds on the present value of external debt-to-GDP and public debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to be breached within a 20-year horizon. While mechanical application of the DSF based on a 10-year forecast horizon would imply a moderate risk rating, the envisaged breach of the thresholds within a 20-year forecast horizon would warrant an assessment of high risk of external and overall debt distress. Lowering the risk of debt distress would require a fiscal adjustment and steadfast structural reforms to promote private sector growth. The FSM's vulnerability to climate change and weather-related natural disasters constitutes a major risk and calls for strategies to strengthen climate change resilience
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: An updated debt sustainability analysis (DSA) is prepared using the revised Low-income Countries Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF) to assess Zambia's current debt situation. Debt burden indicators have deteriorated considerably since the October 2017 DSA mainly on account of large fiscal deficits as the authorities made use of available financing to boost infrastructure spending, weaker growth and exchange rate, and a worsened external environment (terms of trade and financial conditions). Rising debt service costs (both externally and domestically) and a large pipeline of contracted and to-be-disbursed loans place Zambia's public debt on an unsustainable path under current policies while budget expenditure arrears have risen. Zambia's debt-carrying capacity has also weakened with its FX reserves' import coverage declining from 4.7 months in 2015 to 1.7 months in May 2019. All four external debt burden indicators breach their indicative thresholds, three of them by large margins and throughout the medium-term under the baseline scenario. Total public debt is projected to increase somewhatin the near-term as, under unchanged policies, fiscal deficits remain large, before gradually declining as large debt-financed public projects are completed and forced fiscal adjustment occurs given financing constraints. As a frontier market, Zambia's high gross financing needs (peaking at 19 percent of GDP over the next three years), combined with wide EMBI spreads (1,575 basis points on June 11, 2019) and high domestic borrowing costs, expose it to significant market-financing risks. Despite the challenging fiscal situation, Zambia has remained current on all its debt obligations both domestic and external, and has not experienced a debt distress event. The authorities remain committed to prioritizing debt service payments and have identified resources to continue meeting debt obligations in the near-term. However, staff assess the risk of external and overall public debt distress for Zambia as very high at this juncture, and that a large upfront and sustained fiscal adjustment is essential to begin reducing debt vulnerabilities
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) suggests that Liberia remains at moderate risk of debt distress with limited space to accommodate shocks. The country's debt carrying capacity remains medium, but the rating has declined from 3.1 to 2.77. The authorities have pursued non-concessional loans, but none has been disbursed yet. The government has instead borrowed U.S. dollars from the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) to close the financing gap in FY2018. Such new borrowing, as well as the legacy U.S. dollar debt from the civil war time, are both incorporated in the new DSA. The State-owned Enterprises (SOE) guaranteed debt is also incorporated. Liberia will edge closer to high risk of debt distress with a small change in the terms of both domestic and external debt or a failure to adjust primary expenditure to the available revenue envelope over the medium-term
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Cabo Verde's risk of external and overall debt distress is rated "high" as in the previous debt sustainability analysis (DSA). The present value (PV) of public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its threshold in 2019-2022 under the baseline and protractedly under stress test scenarios. The PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to recede below its threshold from 2026 under the baseline and breaches its prescribed limit under stress test scenarios. The debt sustainability assessment is predicated on sustained fiscal consolidation and successful restructuring of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Prudent borrowing policies and a strengthened debt management strategy are critical to containing debt accumulation. In view of Cabo Verde's vulnerability to exogenous shocks, growth-enhancing structural reforms remain critical to bringing public debt to sustainable levels
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The Central African Republic (C.A.R.) remains at high risk of external debt distress and overall high risk of debt distress under the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), unchanged from the 2018 DSA. Solvency indicators (the present values of the external public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-GDP and debt-to-exports ratios) remain below their relevant thresholds in the baseline scenario. However, liquidity indicators (debt service-to-exports and debt service-to-revenue ratios) breach their thresholds in the baseline scenario. Further considerations support the high-risk assessment: the debt indicators are sensitive to standard stress tests; macroeconomic projections are highly uncertain in a volatile security environment; and sizeable contingent liabilities, notably related to the large stock of unaudited potential domestic arrears and the limited financial information available on state-owned enterprises, could materialize. C.A.R.'s debt sustainability is also sensitive to a deterioration of the financing mix. A tailored scenario in which grant financing (of 2 percent of GDP) is replaced by concessional external debt-financing from 2021 onwards would worsen debt sustainability considerably. This shows that the government's investment program requires grant financing, with concessional debt financing to be considered in exceptional cases
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Madagascar is assessed at low risk of external debt distress. This marks a change from moderate risk in the June 2018 DSA, despite a broader definition of external debt, and reflects an upgrade in Madagascar's debt carrying capacity rather than a change in the debt path. Under the baseline, external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt is well below applicable thresholds. Stress tests do not breach the threshold applicable to countries with medium debt-carrying capacity. Total (external plus domestic) PPG debt is below the benchmark under the baseline, but growth shocks drive the present value of the ratio of debt to GDP above the benchmark. Shocks could also introduce liquidity problems, as the debt-service to revenue ratio could exceed 100 percent over the long term. The overall rating, of moderate debt distress, remains consistent with the 2018 DSA. These assessments continue to be supportive of Madagascar's current plans to scale up its borrowing to meet its investment needs, though other factors are also critical
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  • 14
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Abstract: A joint IMF-World Bank mission visited Thailand from November 1 to 16, 2018, and February 6 to 22, 2019, to update the findings of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) conducted in 2008. This report summarizes the main findings of the mission, identifies key financial sector vulnerabilities, and provides policy recommendations
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Abstract: While Thailand's pension system is typically described as a multipillar pension scheme, its design is highly fragmented and offers adequate coverage only to a small segment of the population, including civil servants and high-income individuals. In its 2018 Article IV report, the IMF highlighted the need for a broader pension reform, including parametric changes and ender inclusivepolicies to improve female labor force participation and attenuate the impact of aging on productivity growth. While these reforms are needed, private pensions can also play a role inimproving retirement income for individuals. As agreed with the Thai authorities, this technical note provides an assessment of the private, funded components of the pension system. A key component assessed is the voluntary provident fund scheme (PVD). The PVD scheme is voluntary and operates as a tax-incentivized scheme, which allows both employers and employees to take advantage of generous tax benefits for savings for retirement. This note also addresses the challenges of the private, funded system and proposes policy recommendations for increasing coverage, improving efficiency, and delivering sustainable retirement income in the payout phase. This note is organized as follows. The next section provides a brief description of the current overall pension system, public and private; Section III provides a diagnostic of the main challenges in the private, funded system; and Section IV provides recommendations for optimizing the design of the private, funded pension system. The focus of the note is to improve the incentive structure of the private, funded pension scheme
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: An updated joint assessment of Rwanda's debt sustainability suggests continued low risk of external debt distress. External debt burden indicators remain below risk thresholds, except for a short and temporary breach of debt service indicators in 2023, when the Eurobond issued in 2013 matures. The main risk to debt sustainability--and macroeconomic stability--remains external shocks. Balancing Rwanda's still-strong public investment needs with maintaining low risks of debt distress, the government is focused on carefully choosing the highest return projects, financed under the most favorable terms. These principles are laid out in Rwanda's Medium-Term Debt Strategy, as are options for help mitigating potential risks. More broadly, the government is focused on creating a larger and more diversified export base while encouraging more private investment, to help secure high and resilient growth over the long term. Forthcoming results of fiscal risk analysis will help identify if there could be additional contingent liabilities that should be included in the next DSA
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  • 17
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Togo's risk of external debt distress continues to be moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress is high-unchanged from the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) published in December 2018. While the mechanical results point to a low risk of external debt distress, judgment was applied given vulnerabilities arising from high domestic debt, which could, for example, likely lead to a reprofiling operation that would lead to an increase in external debt. Togo's public debt is on a downward trajectory despite an increase in 2018 compared with 2017. Togo's high public debt is the result of, among other factors, high deficits, contingent liabilities, and accumulated arrears. There is very little space to absorb shocks on total public debt. Baseline projections show that Togo's PV of total PPG debt (external plus domestic)-to-GDP ratio will decline below the new debt distress benchmark of 55 percent starting in 2023, down from 72 percent in 2018-with the bulk constituting domestic debt obligations. This analysis highlights the need for sustained fiscal consolidation, improved debt management, and strong macroeconomic policies to reduce the public debt to prudent levels over the medium term
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Niger's risk of external and overall public debt distress is rated "moderate" as in the previous DSA. While all thresholds are observed in the baseline, the PV of PPG external debt-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold under stress test scenarios. Debt-carrying capacity continues to be rated "medium." The analysis shows that Niger has limited space to accommodate negative shocks and remains vulnerable to adverse developments of its exports. The DSA is predicated on the government continuing to implement its reform program: fiscal consolidation; structural reforms, including revenue mobilization efforts; contain expenditures and improve spending quality; and timely completion of several large-scale projects, in particular the construction of a pipeline for crude oil exports. Identified weaknesses call for further strengthening of debt management, including by broadening the coverage of public debt, prioritizing concessional borrowing, and strengthening private-sector development to support economic diversification and mitigate the risks associated with commodity price fluctuations
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  • 19
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The updated DSA suggests that the external risk of debt distress for Vanuatu remains moderate with limited space to absorb shocks. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative thresholds under the baseline scenario, incorporating the average long-term effects of natural disasters on growth and the fiscal and current account balances. A tailored natural disaster shock, reflecting Vanuatu's vulnerability to disasters, would cause the present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio to breach the threshold from 2024 onwards. The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as moderate. Although the PV of the public-debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the 55 percent benchmark under the baseline scenario, the public-debt-to-GDP ratio would breach the authorities' debt ceiling of 60 percent by 2025. Moreover, a tailored natural disaster shock would lead to a significant deterioration in debt sustainability, breaching the benchmark. The breach of the authorities' debt ceiling and of the benchmark indicates the need for rebuilding fiscal buffers and enhancing resilience against shocks, including from natural disasters. This requires both stronger revenue mobilization measures, including an introduction of the proposed income taxes, and expenditure rationalization in the medium term. When contracting new public infrastructure projects, the authorities are encouraged to seek grants or concessional loans as much as possible to contain its debt burden
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  • 20
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Based on the Joint Bank-Fund Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA), Uzbekistan has a low risk of debt distress, with debt burden indicators below relevant thresholds in the baseline and all stress scenarios. Over the medium term, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase moderately, while the total external debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline somewhat. In addition, large foreign exchange reserve buffers mitigate potential distress concerns. The debt sustainability analysis suggests that the most significant risks could result from worse-than-expected external flows (mostly lower remittances) and significantly lower exports. The government should carefully manage external borrowing to maintain Uzbekistan's strong external position
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  • 21
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: An updated DSA indicates that The Gambia is in external debt distress, though its public debt is deemed sustainable on a forward-looking basis. The external debt service-to-exports and -to-revenue ratios breach their indicative thresholds by large margins in the near term and signal major liquidity pressures. However, once these pressures are addressed by the prospective debt relief and the authorities' fiscal consolidation and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform program, the PV of total public debt would be brought below its threshold over the medium term. On the upside, debt relief discussions with external creditors are progressing and could unlock additional budget support. Downside risks mainly relate to the political environment and fiscal discipline, the unravelling of which could destabilize the economy and worsen the outlook for public debt
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  • 22
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Guinea is at moderate risk of external debt distress with some space to absorb shocks. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will increase if adverse shocks materialize. Under the most extreme stress tests, all solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods. The overall risk of public debt distress is also assessed to be moderate, with the application of judgement regarding a brief and marginal breach for the PV of total public debt to GDP ratio over 2019-20, reflecting the one-off impact of the recapitalization of the central bank. Guinea's external and public debt position at end-2018 improved compared to the December 2018 DSA, owing to upward revisions of growth estimates in 2016-17, lower-than-anticipated external loan disbursements in 2018, and a stable exchange rate in 2018. A prudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing the concessionally of new debt, limiting non-concessional loans to programmed amounts and strengthening debt management will be key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability
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  • 23
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The risk of external and overall debt distress for Guyana remains moderate, but debt dynamics will improve significantly with the start of oil production in 2020. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative vulnerability thresholds under the baseline scenario, which incorporates the average long-term effects of oil on economic growth, fiscal balance, and current account position. The PV of external debt-to-GDP is projected to decline to 3 percent over the long-term as the need for external borrowing is offset by the accumulation of external assets. Stress tests indicate the susceptibility of Guyana's external public debt in a very extreme shock which combines simultaneous shocks to real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, other flows (current transfers and FDI), and nominal exchange rate depreciation, as well as second order effects arising from interactions among these shocks. The combined effects of these shocks and their second order effects cause temporary but significant breaches in the external debt thresholds, prompting a moderate risk rating. Nonetheless, Guyana has substantial space to absorb these shocks, reflecting the current low level of external debt. Guyana's medium- and long-term outlook is very favorable given the incoming oil production and revenues, which will eventually underpin fiscal surpluses and a reduction in external indebtedness. The authorities reiterated their commitment in preserving fiscal discipline
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  • 24
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Lao P.D.R.'s risks of external and overall debt distress continue to be assessed as high. Under the revised low-income country debt sustainability framework (LIC DSF), its debt carrying capacity has deteriorated and most external and total public debt indicators breach their respective indicative thresholds and benchmarks under the baseline scenarios. External debt indicators are most vulnerable to shocks to exports and depreciation of the currency. Public and external debt indicators are most sensitive to the contingent liabilities shock, while recent natural disasters underscore the need for strengthening buffers. The low level of reserves adds to these vulnerabilities. Factors, such as the large share of electricity export earnings under long-term intergovernmental power purchase agreements, and a strong and growing electricity exports market help mitigate risks, keeping the debt outlook sustainable. Market access is being maintained, around 65 percent of external debt is concessional, and the stock of expenditure arrears is declining. Rebuilding fiscal space, adopting clear guidelines for sovereign debt issuance and guarantees, assessing risks from contingent liabilities, and improving debt management are immediate priorities. Assessing and targeting infrastructure projects with high growth and social returns and financing these with concessional financing would benefit debt sustainability. Strengthening the business environment and governance, would improve the investment outlook, help diversify and make growth more inclusive. Increasing the export base, continuing to maximize the proportion of concessional loans and improving primary deficits would help to keep the debt burden contained
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  • 25
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Mali remains at moderate risk of external debt distress. This rating is unchanged from the previous analysis and consistent with the May 2018 Staff Report (IMF Country Report/18/141). All the projected external debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline. However, the ratio of the external debt service to exports exceeds its threshold in the case of an extreme shock to exports under a customized scenario that incorporates 2 percentage points of GDP larger fiscal deficits over 2019 to 2023 than the baseline.1 The baseline scenario assumes improved fiscal policies and achievement of the WAEMU fiscal deficit convergence criteria by 2019. As illustrated in the customized scenario, continued shortfall in domestic revenue mobilization and a deterioration in security conditions will result in a weakened fiscal position and increase the likelihood of debt distress. Mali's main challenge continues to be ensuring macroeconomic stability while protecting social and investment spending and providing for growing security spending and large development needs. To maintain debt at moderate risk rating, it is essential that the authorities continue their efforts to mobilize domestic revenue and implement reforms. Debt management capacity should be strengthened while deepening structural reforms to diversify the exports base
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  • 26
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Nepal's risk of external debt distress remains low. Under the revised IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis Framework for Low Income Countries (LIC-DSF), all debt and debt service ratios are projected to remain below relevant indicative threshold values. Following a prolonged decline, to 25 percent of GDP in mid-2015, the sum of external and domestic public debt rose to 30 percent of GDP in mid-2018. A further rise in total public debt is projected, to about 35 percent of GDP in the medium term and about 48 percent of GDP in the long term, owing to continuing fiscal and current account deficits, as the authorities implement fiscal federalism and aim to put the economy on a higher growth path. Stress tests suggest that debt burden indicators are vulnerable to growth/exports shocks and natural disasters. This underscores the importance of implementing sound macro-economic policies. Efforts to improve the business climate and competitiveness through high-quality public investment and structural reforms would support growth and expand foreign exchange income streams
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  • 27
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Senegal has expanded its debt perimeter to include para-public entities and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and remains at low risk of debt distress despite short-term breaches of two external debt indicators under the most extreme scenarios. The low risk of debt distress is predicated on: (i) ongoing debt liability management, guarantees to address currency risk, access to liquid financial assets and a sound track record of market access; and (ii) adherence to the planned fiscal consolidation path, an acceleration of reforms, and a prudent borrowing strategy. Looking ahead, it will be important to contain fiscal pressures from Treasury operations and address fiscal risks from the broader public sector, including the energy sector
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  • 28
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: This report presents the first official debt sustainability analysis undertaken for Somalia. Based on both external and public debt indicators, Somalia is in debt distress. Total public debt is very high, at dollar 4.8 billion, or 101 percent of GDP at end-2018-nearly all of which is external (100 percent of GDP). The finding that Somalia is in debt distress reflects the high external arrears on debt relative to GDP, which now represent 96 percent of the debt stock. While Somalia has no capacity to access new financing, its debt burden will continue to increase as late interest on arrears continues to accumulate. Under broadly steady state assumptions, Somalia's total public debt is expected to increase to around 128 percent of GDP by 2039. Key risks that affect the outlook include external financing, security, and climate, further highlighting the unsustainability of Somalia's current debt burden. Consequently, in the absence of debt relief, Somalia will remain in debt distress
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  • 29
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Chad's risks of external and overall debt distress are high but have nonetheless declined in the past year. All but one external debt sustainability indicators are below their respective thresholds from 2019 onwards. The debt-to-revenue ratio moderately breaches its threshold under the baseline scenario. Overall, total public debt vulnerabilities are elevated although the present value (PV) of the public debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward trajectory. The debt sustainability analysis is based on projected continued fiscal prudence and an increase in non-oil revenues. Following the restructuring in 2018, the new Glencore debt contract has helped contain the impact of low oil prices on debt sustainability, as it allows for lower debt service when oil prices are lower
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The Union of Comoros remains at moderate risk of external debt distress, but its space to absorb shocks is "limited." All debt burden indicators exhibit a continual upward trend, with the PV of debt-to-export approaching its threshold at the end of the assessment horizon (2029) under the baseline scenario. (Thresholds reflect "medium" capacity to carry debt). The reduced space to absorb shocks reflects the taking on of a large new loan, a downward revision of projected exports in line with lower export prices and impacts of Cyclone Kenneth on debt accumulation. Shock scenarios indicate vulnerability to a deterioration of export performance, natural disasters, and exchange rate instability. Comoros' overall risk of debt distress remains moderate, given that domestic debt is expected to remain minimal. The authorities need to strengthen policies to improve macroeconomic performance including by making faster progress on domestic resource mobilization and broadening the export base. The authorities should proceed cautiously on taking up any new debt and may wish to largely avoid new non-concessional debt
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  • 31
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates that Honduras stands at low risk of debt distress both for public external debt and overall debt, which represents an upgrade from the 2018 DSA, where risk of debt distress was assessed as moderate. The DSA was undertaken under the revised debt-sustainability framework for low income countries (LIC DSF), whereby Honduras's debt carrying capacity was upgraded from medium to strong. Changes in the debt-sustainability framework have contributed to the risk of debt distress improvement. A proven record of compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) and solid macroeconomic conditions also contributed to rate Honduras' risk of debt distress as low. Going forward, adherence to the FRL and institutional reforms to boost inclusive growth and increase the economy's potential are critical to maintain debt sustainability
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  • 32
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Abstract: Based on an assessment of external public debt indicators and given the continued buildup of external arrears, the Republic of Congo is classified as "in debt distress". Moreover, despite the recent restructuring agreement with China, public debt remains unsustainable with the net present value of external debt in percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the external debt service-to-revenue ratios projected to remain above their indicative thresholds in the medium ter
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Abstract: This assessment of the implementation of the BCP by the BOT is part of the FSAP undertaken by the IMF and the World Bank. The assessment was performed October 25 through November 16, 2018 and is based on the regulatory and supervisory framework in place at the time of this visit. Compliance was measured against standards issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in 2012.1 Since the previous assessment, conducted in 2008, the BCP standards have been revised and reflect the international consensus for minimum standards based on global experience. The view is that supervision should be based on a process involving well-defined requirements, supervisory onsite and offsite determination of compliance with requirements and risk assessments, and a strong program of enforcement and corrective action and sanctions. The 2012 revision placed increased emphasis on corporate governance, on supervisors conducting reviews to determine compliance with regulatory requirements, and on thoroughly understanding the risk profile of banks and the banking system. The assessors appreciated the high quality of cooperation received from the authorities. The mission extends its thanks to the staff of the BOT for its excellent cooperation and hospitality. The BOT provided a comprehensive and detailed self-assessment and granted access to supervisory manuals, onsite inspection reports, monitoring reports, and risk assessments
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