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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1631
    Keywords: Brexit ; free-trade agreement ; general-equilibrium model ; Economics ; United Kingdom ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the sectoral trade impact in the United Kingdom and in EU countries of the UK’s exit from the Single Market, using the OECD general-equilibrium METRO model. A comprehensive free-trade agreement could lead to a fall by about 6.1% of UK exports and 7.8% of UK imports in the medium term compared to a situation where the United Kingdom would stay in the Single Market. Cost would come essentially from rising technical barriers and sanitary and phytosanitory measures on goods and rising trade costs on services. Rules of origin and border transition costs would have a small effect. Output losses in the European Union (0.4-0.5%) are expected to be less pronounced, but would vary markedly across individual countries. Ireland would experience the largest losses. Losses would also vary across sectors. Accounting for the regulatory impact of ending free movement of people for EU nationals on services trade is expected to bring some additional costs to the services economy. Those losses could be partly compensated by growth-enhancing changes to UK regulations, but only to a limited extent.
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD trade policy papers no. 225
    Keywords: Dienstleistungshandel ; Arbeitskräftepotenzial ; Arbeitsmarktintegration ; Befristete Beschäftigung ; Teilzeitarbeit ; Atypische Beschäftigung ; Trade ; European Union ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This report presents new cross-country evidence on labour market transitions in sectors exposed to growing volumes of international trade, and the job characteristics of workers employed in these sectors. It shows that export growth is significantly associated with lower job loss risk. In commercial services sectors, exports offer over-proportional employment opportunities to those currently outside the workforce. Men and women are not always impacted identically. For example, involuntary part time employment amongst women falls with growing export volumes, while there is no such effect for men. These results show that the distributional effects of international trade are not limited to wage effects or net changes in employment numbers and highlight the need for a comprehensive assessment of trade implications for individual workers.
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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