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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Deep Agreements (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mattoo, Aaditya Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Deep Agreements
    Keywords: Handelsabkommen ; Regionale Wirtschaftsintegration ; Politische Integration
    Abstract: Preferential trade agreements have boomed in recent years and extended their reach well beyond tariff reduction, to cover policy areas such as investment, competition, and intellectual property rights. This paper uses new information on the content of preferential trade agreements to examine the trade effects of deep agreements and revisit the classic Vinerian question of trade creation and trade diversion. The results indicate that deep agreements lead to more trade creation and less trade diversion than shallow agreements. Furthermore, some provisions of deep agreements have a public good aspect and increase trade also with non-members
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8206
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impact Evaluation of Trade Interventions : Paving the Way (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cadot, Olivier Impact Evaluation of Trade Interventions
    Abstract: The focus of trade policy has shifted in recent years from economy-wide reductions in tariffs and trade restrictions toward targeted interventions to facilitate trade and promote exports. Most of these latter interventions are based on the new mantra of "aid-for-trade" rather than on hard evidence on what works and what does not. On the one hand, rigorous impact-evaluation is needed to justify these interventions and to improve their design. On the other hand, rigorous evaluation is feasible because unlike traditional trade policy, these interventions tend to be targeted and so it is possible to construct treatment and control groups. When interventions are not targeted, such as in the case of customs reforms, some techniques, such as randomized control trials, may not be feasible but meaningful evaluation may still be possible. Theis paper discusses examples of impact evaluations using a range of methods (experimental and non-experimental), highlighting the particular issues and caveats arising in a trade context, and the valuable lessons that are already being learned. The authors argue that systematically building impact evaluation into trade projects could lead to better policy design and a more credible case for "aid-for-trade
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5877
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Evaluating Aid for Trade : A Survey of Recent Studies (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cadot, Olivier Evaluating Aid for Trade
    Abstract: The demand for accountability in aid-for-trade is increasing but monitoring has focused on case studies and impressionistic narratives. The paper reviews recent evidence from a wide range of studies, recognizing that a multiplicity of approaches is needed to learn what works and what does not. The review concludes that there is some support for the emphasis on reducing trade costs through investments in hard infrastructure (like ports and roads) and soft infrastructure (like customs). But failure to implement complementary reform-especially the introduction of competition in transport services-may erode the benefits of these investments. Direct support to exporters does seem to lead to diversification across products and destinations, but it is not yet clear that these benefits are durable. In general, it is difficult to rely on cross-country studies to direct aid-for-trade. More rigorous impact evaluation is an underutilized alternative, but situations of clinical interventions in trade are rare and adverse incentives (because of agency problems) and costs (because of the small size of project) are a hurdle in implementation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6742
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Are the Benefits of Export Support Durable? : Evidence from Tunisia (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cadot, Olivier Are the Benefits of Export Support Durable?
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the effects of the FAMEX export promotion program in Tunisia on the performance of beneficiary firms. While much of the literature assesses only the short-term impact of such programs, the paper considers also the longer-term impact. Propensity-score matching, difference-in-difference, and weighted least squares estimates suggest that beneficiaries initially see faster export growth and greater diversification across destination markets and products. However, three years after the intervention, the growth rates and the export levels of beneficiaries are not significantly different from those of non-beneficiary firms. Exports of beneficiaries do remain more diversified, but the diversification does not translate into lower volatility of exports. The authors also did not find evidence that the program produced spillover benefits for non-beneficiary firms. However, the results on the longer-term impact of export promotion must be interpreted cautiously because the later years of the sample period saw a collapse in world trade, which may not have affected all firms equally
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6295
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Is US Trade Policy Reshaping Global Supply Chains? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Freund, Caroline Is US Trade Policy Reshaping Global Supply Chains?
    Keywords: 10-Digit Us Import Data ; Bilateral Trade Decoupling ; China Supply Chains ; Diversification ; Global Value Chains ; Global Value Chains and Business Clustering ; International Economics and Trade ; Private Sector Development ; Reshoring ; Tariffs ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: This paper examines the reshaping of supply chains using detailed US 10-digit import data (tariff-line level) between 2017 and 2022. The results show that while US-China decoupling in bilateral trade is real, supply chains remain intertwined with China. Over the period, China's share of US imports fell from 22 to 16 percent. The paper shows that the decline is due to US tariffs. US imports from China are being replaced with imports from large developing countries with revealed comparative advantage in a product. Countries replacing China tend to be deeply integrated into China's supply chains and are experiencing faster import growth from China, especially in strategic industries. Put differently, to displace China on the export side, countries must embrace China's supply chains. Within products, the reorientation of trade is consistent with a "China + 1" strategy, as opposed to diversified sourcing across multiple countries. There is some evidence of nearshoring, but it is exclusive to border nations, and there is no consistent evidence of reshoring. Despite the significant reshaping, China remained the top supplier of imported goods to the US in 2022
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10593
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Natural Disasters and the Reshaping of Global Value Chains (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Freund, Caroline Natural Disasters and the Reshaping of Global Value Chains
    Abstract: To understand the longer term consequences of natural disasters for global value chains, this paper examines trade in the automobile and electronic sectors after the 2011 earthquake in Japan. Contrary to widespread expectations, the analysis shows that the shock did not lead to reshoring, nearshoring, or diversification; and trade in intermediate products was disrupted less than trade in final goods. Imports did shift to new suppliers, especially where dependence on Japan was greater. But production relocated to developing countries rather than to other top exporters. Despite important differences, the observed pattern of switching may be relevant to disasters like the COVID-19 pandemic
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9719
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global Trade Watch 2017 : Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty-Will It Last? (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: Trade rebounded in 2017, with trade volume growing at 4.3 percent in 2017 - the fastest rate in 6 years. The recovery of trade is not limited to a few regions but is widespread, suggesting that we may be at a turning point. The largest contributions to global trade growth have come from East Asian countries in the developing world and the Euro area in the developed world. Merchandise trade, which in recent years has been less resilient than services trade, picked up, growing by 4.5 percent in 2017. Cyclical factors drove better trade performance in 2017. Trade grew faster because real gross domestic product grew faster. Investment growth played a critical role because investment is the most import intensive component of aggregate demand, and capital goods production has longer global value chains (GVCs). Preliminary monthly data indicate that the import values of capital goods such as machinery and electrical equipment grew in 2017 at the fastest rates since 2012 and that they have been the most significant contributors to 2017 nonfuel import growth in the European Union and United States. The improved performance of trade may be widespread, but it is fragile. Some of the factors underlying the global trade slowdown of recent years - weak growth in GVCs and high trade policy uncertainty - are still present. In particular, there are serious risks in the trade policy domain. The share of merchandise trade that trade-restrictive measures cover remained stable at approximately 1 percent in 2017. But the portion due to trade remedy initiations - a harbinger of future protection - has increased significantly since 2015, and there are risks of policy reversals in major markets. At the same time, new deep trade agreements have recently entered into force and others are being negotiated
    DOI: 10.1596/29785
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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