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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (68 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Herrera, Santiago Output Fluctuations in Latin America
    Keywords: Accounting ; Bond ; Bonds ; Business Cycles ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Capital Flows ; Capital Markets ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gross Domestic Product ; Interest Rates ; International Development ; International Interest ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Exchange Rates ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Share ; Sovereign Debt ; Accounting ; Bond ; Bonds ; Business Cycles ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Capital Flows ; Capital Markets ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gross Domestic Product ; Interest Rates ; International Development ; International Interest ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Exchange Rates ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Share ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: May 2000 - For the period 1992-98, domestic factors explain most output variability in Latin America. However, external factors account for about 60 percent of the 1998-99 slowdown - perhaps in part because external variables were more volatile during this period, but mainly because domestic variables - real interest rates and real exchange rates - were more stable in these two years. Herrera, Perry, and Quintero explain Latin America's growth slowdown in 1998-99. To do so, they use two complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific external factors: the terms of trade, international interest rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and climatological factors (El Niño). Using quarterly GDP data for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50 - 60 percent of the slowdown was due to these external factors. The second approach allows for effects on output by some endogenous variables, such as domestic real interest rates and real exchange rates. Using monthly industrial production data, the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector autoregressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the slowdown in the subperiod 1998-99 is explained more than 60 percent by shocks to the external factors. This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Regional Office - is part of a larger effort to understand output fluctuations and growth in the region. The authors may be contacted at gperryworldbank.org or nquintero@worldbank.org
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Public Expenditure And Consumption Volatility (2008)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (25 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Herrera, Santiago Public Expenditure And Consumption Volatility
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Developing countries ; Domestic financial markets ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory & Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Government spending ; Growth rates ; Income ; Instrumental variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Output volatility ; Private Sector Development ; Standard deviation ; Volatility ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Developing countries ; Domestic financial markets ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory & Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Government spending ; Growth rates ; Income ; Instrumental variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Output volatility ; Private Sector Development ; Standard deviation ; Volatility ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Developing countries ; Domestic financial markets ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory & Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Government spending ; Growth rates ; Income ; Instrumental variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Output volatility ; Private Sector Development ; Standard deviation ; Volatility
    Abstract: Recent estimates of the welfare cost of consumption volatility find that it is significant in developing nations, where it may reach an equivalent of reducing consumption by 10 percent per year. Hence, examining the determinants of consumption volatility is of utmost relevance. Based on cross-country data for the period 1960-2005, the paper explains consumption volatility using three sets of variables: one refers to the volatility of income and the persistence of income shocks; the second set of variables refers to policy volatility, considering the volatility of public spending and the size of government; while the third set captures the ability of agents to smooth shocks, and includes the depth of the domestic financial markets as well as the degree of integration to international capital markets. To allow for potential endogenous regressors, in particular the volatility of fiscal policy and the size of government, the system is estimated using the instrumental variables method. The results indicate that, besides income volatility, the variables with the largest and most robust impact on consumption volatility are government size and the volatility of public spending. Results also show that deeper and more stable domestic financial markets reduce the volatility of consumption, and that more integrated financial markets to the international capital markets are associated with lower volatility of consumption
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Impact of Food Inflation On Urban Poverty And Its Monetary Cost : Some Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculations (2008)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (23 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Dessus, Sebastien The Impact of Food Inflation On Urban Poverty And Its Monetary Cost
    Keywords: Debt Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Food prices ; Income ; Industry ; New poor ; Poor ; Poor households ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty gap ; Poverty line ; Poverty threshold ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Targeting ; Debt Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Food prices ; Income ; Industry ; New poor ; Poor ; Poor households ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty gap ; Poverty line ; Poverty threshold ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Targeting ; Debt Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Food prices ; Income ; Industry ; New poor ; Poor ; Poor households ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty gap ; Poverty line ; Poverty threshold ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Targeting
    Abstract: This paper uses a sample of 73 developing countries to estimate the change in the cost of alleviating urban poverty brought about by the recent increase in food prices. This cost is approximated by the change in the poverty deficit, that is, the variation in financial resources required to eliminate poverty under perfect targeting. The results show that, for most countries, the cost represents less than 0.1 percent of gross domestic product. However, in the most severely affected, it may exceed 3 percent. In all countries, the change in the poverty deficit is mostly due to the negative real income effect of those households that were poor before the price shock, while the cost attributable to new households falling into poverty is negligible. Thus, in countries where transfer mechanisms with effective targeting already exist, the most cost-effective strategy would be to scale up such programs rather than designing tools to identify the new poor
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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