Language:
English
Pages:
Online-Ressource (38 p)
Edition:
2009 World Bank eLibrary
Parallel Title:
Kannan, Prakash The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion
Abstract:
The 2007 subprime crisis in the United States has triggered a succession of financial crises around the globe, reigniting interest in the contagion phenomenon. Not all crises, however, are contagious. This paper models a new channel of contagion where the degree of anticipation of crises, through its impact on investor uncertainty, determines the occurrence of contagion. Incidences of surprise crises lead investors to doubt the accuracy of their information-gathering technology, which endogenously increases the probability of crises elsewhere. Anticipated crises, instead, have the opposite effect. Importantly, this channel is empirically shown to have an independent effect beyond other contagion channels
DOI:
10.1596/1813-9450-4995
URL:
Volltext
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