Language:
English
Pages:
Online-Ressource (16 S.)
,
graph. Darst.
Series Statement:
OECD Economics Department working papers 1085
Keywords:
Haushaltskonsolidierung
;
Wachstumspolitik
;
Wirtschaftliche Anpassung
;
Inflation
;
Simulation
;
Japan
;
Economics
;
Japan
;
Amtsdruckschrift
;
Arbeitspapier
;
Graue Literatur
Abstract:
This working paper presents the background and the details of the simulations behind Box 1.4 of the May 2013 OECD Economic Outlook. A small simulation model is used to evaluate the contribution that the three pillars of the government’s strategy – fiscal consolidation, growth-boosting structural reforms and higher inflation – could make to reversing the rise in Japan’s public debt ratio, currently about 230% of GDP. The findings indicate that fiscal consolidation amounting to around 10 percentage points of GDP is necessary by 2020 to eliminate the primary deficit, as targeted in the current medium-term fiscal strategy. With moderately higher growth coming from increased female labour force participation and higher productivity growth, as well as inflation gradually rising to 2% thanks to unconventional monetary policy measures, the debt ratio would likely be put on a resolute downward trajectory by the end of this decade, although it is likely to remain around 200% of GDP in 2035.
Note:
Zsfassung in franz. Sprache
,
Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
DOI:
10.1787/5k41w045v6mp-en
