ISBN:
9789401715904
Language:
English
Pages:
Online-Ressource (IX, 494 p)
,
digital
Edition:
Springer eBook Collection. Humanities, Social Sciences and Law
Series Statement:
Theory and Decision Library, An International Series in the Philosophy and Methodology of the Social and Behavioral Sciences 37
Series Statement:
Theory and Decision Library 37
Parallel Title:
Erscheint auch als
Parallel Title:
Erscheint auch als
Parallel Title:
Erscheint auch als
Keywords:
Social sciences
;
Social sciences Methodology
;
Sociology—Methodology.
Abstract:
Opening Address -- Paradoxes and Their Solutions -- Behavior Under Uncertainty and Its Implications for Policy -- Frequency, Probability and Chance -- Utility Analysis from the Point of View of Model Building -- On Second Order Probabilities and the Notion of Epistemic Risk -- Expected Utility Theory Does Not Apply to All Rational Men -- Sure-Thing Doubts -- The Pre-Outcome Period and the Utility of Gambling -- Empirical Demonst:ation that Expected Utility Decision Analysis is Not Operational -- Risk Attitude Hypotheses of Utility Theory -- Probabilistic Forecasts: Some Results and Speculations -- The Supra-Additivity of Subjective Probability -- A Decision Analysis Model When the Substitution Principle is Not Acceptable -- Generalized Expected Utility Analysis and the Nature of Observed Violations of the Independence Axiom -- Use of Subjective Probabilities in Game Theory -- Bargaining and Rationality: A Discussion of Zeuthen’as Principle and Some Other Decision Rules -- Hotelling Utility Functions -- Cardinal Utility and Decision Making Under Uncertainty -- Decision Making with an Uncertain Utility Function -- Welfare Losses Arising from Increased Public Information, and/or the Opening of New Securities Markets: Examples of the General Theory of the Second Best -- Decision Making in Dynamic Environments -- The Economics of Organizational Design -- Indifference Spanning Analysis -- Evaluation of Oil Spill Combat Plans by Means of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis -- Name Index.
Abstract:
In this volume we present some o~ the papers that were delivered at FUR-82 - the First International Con~erence on Foundations o~ Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo, June 1982. The purpose o~ the con~erence was to provide a ~orum within which scientists could report on interesting applications o~ modern decision theory and exchange ideas about controversial issues in the ~oundations o~ the theory o~ choice under un certainty. With that purpose in mind we have selected a mixture of applied and theoretical papers that we hope will appeal to a wide spectrum o~ readers ~rom graduate students in social science departments and business schools to people involved in making hardheaded decisions in business and government. In an introductory article Ole Hagen gives an overview o~ various paradoxes in utility and risk theory and discusses these in the light o~ scientific methodology. He concludes the article by calling ~or joint efforts to provide decision makers with warkable theories. Kenneth Arrow takes up the same issue on a broad basis in his paper where he discusses the implications o~ behavior under uncertainty for policy. In the theoretical papers the reader will ~ind attempts at de~initive Statements of the meaning o~ old concepts and suggestions for the adoption o~ new concepts. For instance, Maurice Allais discusses four di~ferent interpretations o~ the axioms o~ probability and explains the need ~or an empirical characterization o~ the concept of chance.
DOI:
10.1007/978-94-017-1590-4
URL:
Volltext
(lizenzpflichtig)
