ISSN:
1995-2899
Language:
English
Pages:
22 p
Titel der Quelle:
OECD journal: journal of business cycle measurement and analysis
Publ. der Quelle:
Paris : OECD, 2008
Angaben zur Quelle:
Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 71-92
Keywords:
Economics
Abstract:
In this paper, we develop a likelihood approach for quantification of qualitative survey data on expectations and perceptions and we propose a new test for expectation consistency (unbiasedness). Our quantification scheme differs from existing methods primarily by using prior information (perhaps derived from economic theory or well established empirical relations) on the underlying process driving the variable of interest. To investigate the properties of our novel quantification scheme and to analyze the size and power properties of the new expectation consistency test, we perform Monte Carlo simulation studies. Overall, the simulation results are very encouraging and show that efficiency gains from including prior information can be substantial relative to existing quantification schemes. Finally, we provide an empirical illustration...
DOI:
10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art5-en
