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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als de Castro, Luciano How to Deal with Exchange Rate Risk in Infrastructure and other Long-Lived Projects
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency Fluctuation Risk ; Exchange Rate Risk Insurance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Government Exchange Rate Risk Protection ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Infrastructure Finance ; Private Participation in Infrastructure ; Public Procurement
    Abstract: Most developing economies rely on foreign capital to finance their infrastructure needs. These projects are usually structured as long-term (25-35 years) franchises that pay in local currency. If investors evaluate their returns in terms of foreign currency, exchange rate volatility introduces risk that may reduce the level of investment below what would be socially optimal. This paper proposes a mechanism with very general features that hedges exchange rate fluctuation by adjusting the concession period. Such mechanism does not imply additional costs to the government and could be offered as a zero-cost option to lenders and investors exposed to currency fluctuations. This general mechanism is illustrated with three alternative specifications and data from a 25-year highway franchise is used to simulate how they would play out in eight different countries that exhibit diverse exchange rate trajectories
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; E-Finance and E-Security ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Regulation and Supervision ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Remittances
    Abstract: Physical cash and commercial bank money are dominant vehicles for retail payments around the world, including in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Yet payments in EMDEs are marked by several key deficiencies, such as lack of universal access to transaction accounts, widespread informality, limited competition, and high costs, particularly for cross-border payments. Digital money seeks to address these deficiencies. This note categorizes new digital money proposals. These include crypto-assets, stable coins, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). It assesses the supply and demand factors that may determine in which countries these innovations are more likely to be adopted. It lays out particular policy challenges for authorities in EMDEs. Finally, it compares these with digital innovations such as mobile money, retail fast-payment systems, new products by incumbent financial institutions, and new entrants such as specialized cross-border money-transfer operators. Proposals for global stablecoins have put a much-needed spotlight on deficiencies in financial inclusion, and in cross-border payments and remittances in EMDEs. Yet stablecoin initiatives are no panacea. While they may achieve adoption in certain EMDEs, they may also pose development, macroeconomic, and cross-border challenges for these countries and have not been tested at scale. Several EMDE authorities are weighing the potential costs and benefits of CBDCs. We argue that the distinction between token-based and account-based money matters less than the distinction between central bank and non-central bank money. Fast-moving fintech innovations that are built on, or improve existing financial plumbing, may address many of the issues in EMDEs that both private stablecoins and CBDCs aim to tackle
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; E-Finance and E-Security ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Regulation ; Financial Regulation and Supervision ; Microenterprises ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: This note provides: (1) an overview of new manifestations of consumer risks that are significant and cross-cutting across four key fintech products: digital microcredit, P2PL, investment-based crowdfunding, and e-money; and (2) examples of emerging regulatory approaches to target such risks. This note is based on a more detailed recently published WBG Policy Research Paper titled Consumer Risks in Fintech, New Manifestations of Consumer Risks and Emerging Regulatory Approaches. The research paper delves more deeply into each of the four key fintech products and their associated risks. The appendix provides an overview of product-specific risks for which more information can be found in the research paper. The primary focus and objective of this note, and the paper on which it is based, is to inform authorities' development of regulatory policy. The examples included here are intended to assist regulators considering potential FCP regulatory approaches to fintech. However, it is hoped that the discussion of manifestations of consumer risks in a fintech context can also assist authorities with related key areas, such as market conduct supervision
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Anti-Money Laundering ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Distributed Ledger Technology ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Regulation and Supervision ; Financial Stability ; Financial Structures ; Monetary Policy
    Abstract: In recent years, due to innovations in technology, the concept of digital currency has emerged out of the desire of some private entities to replicate specific properties of cash in the digital space. Digital currencies have been issued in various electronic formats and value propositions, and in an uncountable number of platforms, which allow for real-time, peer-to-peer and not-in-person transactions. Digital currencies, especially those that have an embedded decentralized payment mechanism based on the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT), can have a range of impacts on various aspects of financial markets and the wider economy. Central banks, too, are considering issuing their own digital currencies. A central bank digital currency (CBDC) is a central bank liability that is digitally created and recorded on centralized or decentralized ledgers, denominated in an existing unit of account, and convertible in physical cash, commercial bank money and other forms of money on demand by the holder at authorized entities. This report discusses the main technical features of domestic retail CBDC and its potential implications. The report is organized as follows. Section 2 will provide a general description of CBDC as they have evolved in the literature. Section 3 will discuss the economics of CBDCs, in particular it will explore the implications of CBDC for monetary policy, financial stability, financial intermediation, payments and settlements, financial integrity, and financial inclusion in general, and in the context of a developing economy as well as the potential efficiency gains from the use of CBDCs. Section 4 will evaluate the legal and regulatory aspects. The last section will conclude, raising issues for further analysis
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Samano, Agustin International Reserves and Central Bank Independence
    Keywords: Central Bank Independence ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Exchange Rate Regime ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Economics and Trade ; International Reserves ; Public Sector Development ; Reserve Accumulation ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: This paper proposes a novel theory of reserve accumulation that emphasizes the role of an independent central bank. Motivated by a positive correlation between reserve accumulation and central bank independence in Latin America, the paper develops a quantitative sovereign default model with an independent central bank that can accumulate a risk-free foreign asset. The findings show that if the central bank is more patient than the government and as patient as households are, in equilibrium, the government issues more debt than what is socially optimal, and the central bank accumulates reserves to undo government over-borrowing. A key insight is that the government can issue more debt for any level of reserves but chooses not to because doing so would increase sovereign spreads, making it more costly to borrow. Quantitatively, the analysis finds that the central bank independence channel accounts for 75 percent of the average reserve levels observed in Mexico from 1994 to 2017. Finally, the paper shows that accumulating reserves improves social welfare. Welfare gains come from reducing the costs of front-loading public spending
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Cryptocurrency ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Regulation and Supervision ; Financial Structures ; International Financial Markets
    Abstract: Over the years, the demand for seamless and inexpensive cross-border payments has grown in parallel with growth in international e-commerce, remittances and tourism. Yet, cross-border payments have not kept pace with the intensive modernization that has characterized domestic payment services worldwide. An alternative avenue to modernize delivery of cross-border payment services is being increasingly explored in the context of central banks issuing their own digital currency. A central bank digital currency (CBDC) could well incorporate options and features specifically designed to execute cross-border payments, with a view to reducing the inefficiencies and rents discussed above by shortening the payments value chain. This report discusses the use of CBDCs for cross-border payments. The report reviews the models that have been developed for this purpose to date and discusses critical legal issues that arise in the context of cross-border use of CBDC. This report is organized as follows. Section II specifically discusses the models developed jointly by the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Monetary Authority of Singapore; Section III evaluates how cross-border CBDCs address challenges of the existing correspondent banking arrangement; Section IV discusses the legal issues involved in cross-border use of CBDCs, and Section V concludes the report with some general remarks
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Regulation and Supervision
    Abstract: The World Bank Treasury's Reserve Advisory and Management Partnership (RAMP) conducted its third survey on reserve management practices in 2021. One hundred and nineteen central banks, from different regions, income groups, and reserve levels, contributed to the survey, which included questions on investment policies, asset allocation, risk management, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing, and business continuity. The pandemic underlined the importance of safety and liquidity for reserve portfolios. The authors find that central banks maintained their conservative investment approach, focusing on high-quality fixed-income assets denominated in US dollars and euros. At the same time, against a backdrop of ultra-low interest rates in major economies, we also observe that central banks continued, in their search for yield, to gradually diversify their reserves into more currencies and asset classes within fixed income. Survey results also indicate that central banks' risk management practices show room for improvement, especially in institutions that have expanded into nontraditional asset classes, including those that invest in corporate credit. Meanwhile, reserve managers could further enhance internal risk and reporting practices to strengthen oversight. ESG investing is still rarely adopted by central banks, and fewer than a quarter of respondents have included ESG objectives in their investment policy. Crucially, this is largely explained by the focus of reserve portfolios on high-quality fixed-income assets, among which ESG instruments and strategies are rarely encountered. We learn that, in order to maintain business continuity, central banks implemented home-based work in 2020, but technological drawbacks and cybersecurity concerns tended significantly to obstruct any ambition to attain fully remote reserve management operations. The paper carries the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and World Bank and its affiliated organizations or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Devarajan, Shantayanan Aid, Growth, And Real Exchange Rate Dynamics
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Extreme Poverty ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Incentive Effects ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Productivity ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Savings ; Side Effects ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Extreme Poverty ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Incentive Effects ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Productivity ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Savings ; Side Effects ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Extreme Poverty ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Incentive Effects ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Productivity ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Savings ; Side Effects
    Abstract: Devarajan, Go, Page, Robinson, and Thierfelder argued that if aid is about the future and recipients are able to plan consumption and investment decisions optimally over time, then the potential problem of an aid-induced appreciation of the real exchange rate (Dutch disease) does not occur. In their paper, "Aid, Growth and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," this key result is derived without requiring extreme assumptions or additional productivity story. The economic framework is a standard neoclassical growth model, based on the familiar Salter-Swan characterization of an open economy, with full dynamic savings and investment decisions. It does require that the model is fully dynamic in both savings and investment decisions. An important assumption is that aid should be predictable for intertemporal smoothing to take place. If aid volatility forces recipients to be constrained and myopic, Dutch disease problems become an issue
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (35 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Coulibaly, Kalamogo Productivity Growth And Economic Reform
    Keywords: Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development assistance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial sector ; GDP ; Human capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Production function ; Productivity ; Productivity Growth ; Total factor productivity ; Trade reforms ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development assistance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial sector ; GDP ; Human capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Production function ; Productivity ; Productivity Growth ; Total factor productivity ; Trade reforms ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development assistance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial sector ; GDP ; Human capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Production function ; Productivity ; Productivity Growth ; Total factor productivity ; Trade reforms
    Abstract: Trade, financial, and exchange rate reforms are shown to have exerted a positive impact on the growth of total factor productivity in Rwanda during the period 1995-2003. Based on a constant returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function, this paper regresses total factor productivity on indices of trade, financial, and exchange rate reforms. The analysis determines that trade reforms and financial reforms each contributed positively to improvements in total factor productivity. The data also suggest that the allocation of official development assistance to human capital made a significant contribution to productivity. In contrast, the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the late 1980's hindered productivity or the growth of TFP. Taken together, the findings for Rwanda presented in this paper show that the strong growth of the past decade has not just been due to a "bounce back" effect following the genocide. The results support the notion that policies favorable to trade development, a deepening of the financial sector, and formation of human capital have been effective for increasing aggregate productivity of the economy and stimulating growth in Rwanda. For sustained growth, the Rwandan authorities should continue to build on these policies, while also taking care to maintain an appropriate exchange rate
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (39 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ivaschenko, Oleksiy The Dynamics of Ownership of Durable Goods In Bulgaria
    Keywords: Assets ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Durable Goods ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth rate ; Income measures ; Macroeconomic policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National economy ; Per capita income ; Real GDP ; Wealth ; Assets ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Durable Goods ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth rate ; Income measures ; Macroeconomic policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National economy ; Per capita income ; Real GDP ; Wealth ; Assets ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Durable Goods ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth rate ; Income measures ; Macroeconomic policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National economy ; Per capita income ; Real GDP ; Wealth
    Abstract: The paper uses repeated cross-sections of Bulgaria's household survey data (1995, 1997, 2001, and 2003) and a comparable list of durable goods to investigate the dynamics and distribution of durable goods over time, including during the economic crisis of 1996-1997 and the subsequent period of relatively robust economic growth leading up to European Union membership. It examines the dynamics of the ownership of durable goods by wealth classes, geographic locations, and various ethnic groups, including the Roma. In the aggregate, there was convergence between the poorest and the richest classes in the ownership of durable goods between 1995 and 2003, with the poorest class making a significant gain between 2001 and 2003 after having lost some ground between 1995 and 2001. There was also convergence in the ownership of durable goods between urban and rural residents. However, there appear to be some diverging tendencies between Bulgarians and the minority ethnic groups, particularly in the ownership of relatively more expensive goods such as personal computers and cars
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (42 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Instrumental Variables Regressions With Honestly Uncertain Exclusion Restrictions
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Benchmark ; Bilateral trade ; Consumers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Econometrics ; Economic Theory & Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP per capita ; Growth rate ; Human capital ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Per capita incomes ; Property rights ; Statistical & Mathematical Sciences ; Access to Finance ; Benchmark ; Bilateral trade ; Consumers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Econometrics ; Economic Theory & Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP per capita ; Growth rate ; Human capital ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Per capita incomes ; Property rights ; Statistical & Mathematical Sciences ; Access to Finance ; Benchmark ; Bilateral trade ; Consumers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Econometrics ; Economic Theory & Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP per capita ; Growth rate ; Human capital ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Per capita incomes ; Property rights ; Statistical & Mathematical Sciences
    Abstract: The validity of instrumental variables (IV) regression models depends crucially on fundamentally untestable exclusion restrictions. Typically exclusion restrictions are assumed to hold exactly in the relevant population, yet in many empirical applications there are reasonable prior grounds to doubt their literal truth. In this paper I show how to incorporate prior uncertainty about the validity of the exclusion restriction into linear IV models, and explore the consequences for inference. In particular I provide a mapping from prior uncertainty about the exclusion restriction into increased uncertainty about parameters of interest. Moderate prior uncertainty about exclusion restrictions can lead to a substantial loss of precision in estimates of structural parameters. This loss of precision is relatively more important in situations where IV estimates appear to be more precise, for example in larger samples or with stronger instruments. The author illustrates these points using several prominent recent empirical papers that use linear IV models
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Montiel, Peter J Real Exchange Rates, Saving And Growth
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic growth ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange rate depreciation ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth rate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic impact ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy research ; Private Sector Development ; Real exchange ; Real exchange rate ; Real exchange rate volatility ; Real exchange rates ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic growth ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange rate depreciation ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth rate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic impact ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy research ; Private Sector Development ; Real exchange ; Real exchange rate ; Real exchange rate volatility ; Real exchange rates ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic growth ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange rate depreciation ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth rate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic impact ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy research ; Private Sector Development ; Real exchange ; Real exchange rate ; Real exchange rate volatility ; Real exchange rates
    Abstract: The view that policies directed at the real exchange rate can have an important effect on economic growth has been gaining adherents in recent years. Unlike the traditional "misalignment" view that temporary departures of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level harm growth by distorting a key relative price in the economy, the recent literature stresses the growth effects of the equilibrium real exchange rate itself, with the claim being that a depreciated equilibrium real exchange rate promotes economic growth. While there is no consensus on the precise channels through which this effect is generated, an increasingly common view in policy circles points to saving as the channel of transmission, with the claim that a depreciated real exchange rate raises the domestic saving rate -- which in turn stimulates growth by increasing the rate of capital accumulation. This paper offers a preliminary exploration of this claim. Drawing from standard analytical models, stylized facts on saving and real exchange rates, and existing empirical research on saving determinants, the paper assesses the link between the real exchange rate and saving. Overall, the conclusion is that saving is unlikely to provide the mechanism through which the real exchange rate affects growth
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (33 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Melecky, Martin An Alternative Framework For Foreign Exchange Risk Management of Sovereign Debt
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Risk ; Inflation ; Interest Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Risk Management ; Sovereign Debt ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Risk ; Inflation ; Interest Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Risk Management ; Sovereign Debt ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Risk ; Inflation ; Interest Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Risk Management ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: This paper proposes a measure of synchronization in the movements of relevant domestic and foreign fundamentals for choosing suitable currency for denomination of foreign debt. The selection of explanatory variables for exchange rate volatility is motivated using a New Keynesian Policy model. The model predicts that not only traditional optimal currency area variables, but also variables considered by the literature on currency preferences, such as money velocity, should be relevant for explaining exchange rate volatility. The findings show that measures of inflation synchronization, money velocity synchronization, and interest rate synchronization can be useful indicators for decisions on the currency denomination of foreign debt
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (45 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ventura, Luigi Risk Sharing Opportunities And Macroeconomic Factors In Latin American And Caribbean Countries
    Keywords: Aggregate consumption ; Aggregate income ; Consumption ; Consumption growth ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Domestic consumption ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Growth rates ; Income growth ; Inequality ; Levels of investments ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National income ; Poverty Reduction ; Public expenditure ; Trade openness ; Aggregate consumption ; Aggregate income ; Consumption ; Consumption growth ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Domestic consumption ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Growth rates ; Income growth ; Inequality ; Levels of investments ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National income ; Poverty Reduction ; Public expenditure ; Trade openness ; Aggregate consumption ; Aggregate income ; Consumption ; Consumption growth ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Domestic consumption ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Growth rates ; Income growth ; Inequality ; Levels of investments ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National income ; Poverty Reduction ; Public expenditure ; Trade openness
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the degree of consumption insurance enjoyed by Latin American and Caribbean countries, with respect to various reference areas, by estimating a parameter expressing the sensitivity of a country's consumption growth to a measure of idiosyncratic shocks to income. The paper surveys common econometric implementations of "consumption insurance tests." The author proposes some econometric procedures in order to detect the actual presence of international risk sharing, as well as to assess the relative impact of idiosyncratic versus aggregate shocks. The evidence suggests that Latin American and Caribbean economies have been hit by non-diversifiable income shocks, that idiosyncratic risk is relatively more important than aggregate risk, and that some countries in the region appear to enjoy a certain amount of international risk diversification. The paper also identifies some macroeconomic factors that may be responsible for a higher or lower degree of risk pooling (such as international openness, financial depth, and credit availability). The findings show that the financial development of an economy is a crucial factor in determining the amount of risk sharing opportunities, as well as public expenditure. The preliminary results also suggest that trade openness and shocks to terms of trade play an important role in determining the degree of insurability of such risks
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (27 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Chumacero, Romulo A Evo, Pablo, Tony, Diego, and Sonny
    Keywords: Consumers ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equilibrium ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; General Equilibrium Analysis ; Government expenditures ; Growth rate ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Optimization ; Production function ; Production functions ; Utility function ; Consumers ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equilibrium ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; General Equilibrium Analysis ; Government expenditures ; Growth rate ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Optimization ; Production function ; Production functions ; Utility function ; Consumers ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equilibrium ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; General Equilibrium Analysis ; Government expenditures ; Growth rate ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Optimization ; Production function ; Production functions ; Utility function
    Abstract: This paper presents a general equilibrium model for the production, trafficking, and consumption of illegal drugs which endogenously determines relative prices and quantities. The model is calibrated to characterize the market for cocaine and is used to analyze the effects of three types of policies: making the illegal activities riskier, increasing the penalties for conducting illegal activities, and legalizing previously illegal activities. Assessing the effects of these policies using the powerful tool of a general equilibrium model provides illuminating (and in cases surprising) results
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (31 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Currency Undervaluation And Sovereign Wealth Funds
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Enforcement ; Exchange ; Exchange rate ; Exchange rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Government action ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; Investments ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Subsidies ; Trade Law ; World trade ; Access to Finance ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Enforcement ; Exchange ; Exchange rate ; Exchange rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Government action ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; Investments ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Subsidies ; Trade Law ; World trade ; Access to Finance ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Enforcement ; Exchange ; Exchange rate ; Exchange rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Government action ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; Investments ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Subsidies ; Trade Law ; World trade
    Abstract: Two aspects of global imbalances - undervalued exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds - require a multilateral response. For reasons of inadequate leverage and eroding legitimacy, the International Monetary Fund has not been effective in dealing with undervalued exchange rates. This paper proposes new rules in the World Trade Organization to discipline cases of significant undervaluation that are clearly attributable to government action. The rationale for WTO involvement is that there are large trade consequences of undervalued exchange rates, which act as both import tariffs and export subsidies, and that the WTO's enforcement mechanism is credible and effective. The World Trade Organization would not be involved in exchange rate management, and would not displace the International Monetary Fund. Rather, the authors suggest ways to harness the comparative advantage of the two institutions, with the International Monetary Fund providing the essential technical expertise in the World Trade Organization's enforcement process. There is a bargain to be struck between countries with sovereign wealth funds, which want secure and liberal access for their capital, and capital-importing countries, which have concerns about the objectives and operations of sovereign wealth funds. The World Trade Organization is the natural place to strike this bargain. Its General Agreement on Trade in Services, already covers investments by sovereign wealth funds, and other agreements offer a precedent for designing disciplines for these funds. Placing exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds on the trade negotiating agenda may help revive the Doha Round by rekindling the interest of a wide variety of groups
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  • 17
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Li, Ying Aid Inflows And The Real Effective Exchange Rate In Tanzania
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depreciation ; Economic Policy ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Export Competitiveness ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Competitiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Real Effective Exchange Rate ; Real Exchange Rate ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depreciation ; Economic Policy ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Export Competitiveness ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Competitiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Real Effective Exchange Rate ; Real Exchange Rate ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depreciation ; Economic Policy ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Export Competitiveness ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Competitiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Real Effective Exchange Rate ; Real Exchange Rate ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Movements
    Abstract: Tanzania is well placed to receive a significant increase in aid inflows in coming years. Despite the potential for the additional aid inflows to raise income levels in the country, increasing them may bring about structural changes in the economy that may be unwelcome. One such change is an appreciation of the real exchange rate that leads to a contraction of traditional export sectors and a loss of export competitiveness. This paper employs a reduced-form equilibrium real exchange rate approach to explain movements in Tanzania's real effective exchange in recent decades. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate. The authors find that the long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is influenced by terms of trade movements, the government's trade liberalization efforts, and aid inflows. Positive terms-of-trade movements are associated with an appreciation, periods of improving trade liberalization are associated with a depreciation, and increases in aid inflows are associated with a depreciation in the real effective exchange rate. Although the last result is non-standard, it is not empirically unique and does have theoretical underpinnings. A detailed analysis of this relationship over the last decade shows that the Bank of Tanzania's response to aid inflows is likely the main reason for the finding
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (33 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Aloy, Marcel Intertemporal Adjustment And Fiscal Policy Under A Fixed Exchange Rate Regime
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency board ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Policy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rate Regime ; Macroeconomic stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary policy ; Open economies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Real exchange rate ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency board ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Policy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rate Regime ; Macroeconomic stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary policy ; Open economies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Real exchange rate ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency board ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Policy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rate Regime ; Macroeconomic stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary policy ; Open economies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Real exchange rate
    Abstract: The paper presents a dynamic model for small to medium open economies operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. The model provides a partial explanation of the channels through which fiscal and monetary policy affects the real exchange rate. An empirical investigation is conducted for the case of Argentina during the currency board period of 1991-2001. Empirical estimates show that fiscal policy may indeed be an efficient instrument for promoting macroeconomic stability insofar as it encourages convergence toward long-run equilibrium and alters the long-term balance between exports and consumption, both private and public. The simulation applied to Argentina shows that if the share of public spending in the economy is higher than the share of imports, an increase in the tax rate will stimulate capital stock slightly, at least in the short term, and depreciate the real effective exchange rate. In the long run, the fiscal policy affects the value of the real exchange rate and consequently external competitiveness
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (45 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Anderson, Kym Measuring Distortions To Agricultural Incentives, Revisited
    Keywords: Agribusiness ; Agricultural Incentives ; Agricultural markets ; Agricultural policy ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export ; Farm ; Farm products ; Farmers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Import tariffs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Quantitative restrictions ; Agribusiness ; Agricultural Incentives ; Agricultural markets ; Agricultural policy ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export ; Farm ; Farm products ; Farmers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Import tariffs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Quantitative restrictions ; Agribusiness ; Agricultural Incentives ; Agricultural markets ; Agricultural policy ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export ; Farm ; Farm products ; Farmers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Import tariffs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Quantitative restrictions
    Abstract: Notwithstanding the tariffication component of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, import tariffs on farm products continue to provide an incomplete indication of the extent to which agricultural producer and consumer incentives are distorted in national markets. Especially in developing countries, non-agricultural policies indirectly impact agricultural and food markets. Empirical analysis aimed at monitoring distortions to agricultural incentives thus need to examine both agricultural and non-agricultural policy measures including import or export taxes, subsidies and quantitative restrictions, plus domestic taxes or subsidies on farm outputs or inputs and consumer subsidies for food staples. This paper addresses the practical methodological issues that need to be faced when attempting to undertake such a measurement task in developing countries. The approach is illustrated in two ways: by presenting estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers in China for the period 1981 to 2005; and by summarizing estimates from an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of the effects on agricultural versus non-agricultural markets of the project's measured distortions globally as of 2004
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  • 20
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (58 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Medvedev, Denis Preferential Liberalization And Its Economy-Wide Effects In Honduras
    Keywords: Bilateral trade ; Comparative advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic implications ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Open economy ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Safety nets ; Trade liberalization ; Trade policy ; Bilateral trade ; Comparative advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic implications ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Open economy ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Safety nets ; Trade liberalization ; Trade policy ; Bilateral trade ; Comparative advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic implications ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Open economy ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Safety nets ; Trade liberalization ; Trade policy
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the likely benefits of trade and investment liberalization in a small, poor, open economy, using the accession of Honduras to the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement as a case study. The results show that bilateral trade liberalization with the United States is likely to have almost no effect on welfare in Honduras, while the reciprocal removal of protection vis-a-vis the rest of Central America would lead to significantly larger gains. Potential gains from increased net foreign direct investment inflows overwhelm those expected from trade reform alone, particularly if the new foreign direct investment generates productivity spillovers. However, if it is to replace Honduran investment rather than complement domestic capital formation, growth performance is unlikely to improve and may even suffer. The paper's results identify several areas for policy attention by Honduran policy makers to make the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement more development-friendly. These include carefully considering the budgetary implications of trade reform, widening social safety nets to counter the trends toward increasing income inequality, and sequencing the reforms to ensure a close alignment of Honduras' comparative advantage on the regional and global markets
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (37 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Toto Same, Achille Mineral-Rich Countries And Dutch Disease
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Deposits ; Economic Developments ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Gross domestic product ; International Bank ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil boom ; Public finance ; Transparency ; Access to Finance ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Deposits ; Economic Developments ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Gross domestic product ; International Bank ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil boom ; Public finance ; Transparency ; Access to Finance ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Deposits ; Economic Developments ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Gross domestic product ; International Bank ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil boom ; Public finance ; Transparency
    Abstract: Referring to the original context of Dutch Disease, the term refers to the fears of de-industrialization that gripped the Netherlands as a result of the appreciation of the Dutch currency that followed the discovery of natural gas deposits. Expansion of petroleum exports in the 1960s not only crowded out other exports, it actually reduced other exports disproportionately and fueled the fears of dire consequences for Dutch manufacturing. In the case of Equatorial Guinea, the secondary sector represents about 2 percent of the gross domestic product, manufacturing represents less than 1 percent, and oil represents more than 95 percent. The negative impact of the Dutch Disease in this context would be limited given the structure of the economy and on the contrary may even be a good thing because it fuels the structural transformational process of the economy, which is needed in Equatorial Guinea. This paper argues that the ongoing Dutch Disease is a natural and necessary reallocation of resources in the economy of Equatorial Guinea. The magnitude of negative macroeconomic consequences of the Dutch Disease depends on the country's economic structure and stage of development. In a country where the manufacturing sector barely exists or where the non-oil primary sector is structurally deficient, as has been the case of Equatorial Guinea, there is little to fear about the disease. The oil boom is a blessing, given that oil revenues when properly managed can play a special and critical role in overall economic development and poverty reduction in low-income countries. To promote good governance in the management of the country's oil wealth, the government may wish to adhere to clear standards of accountability and transparency; especially by complying with the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI++)
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  • 22
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (25 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Herrera, Santiago Public Expenditure And Consumption Volatility
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Developing countries ; Domestic financial markets ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory & Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Government spending ; Growth rates ; Income ; Instrumental variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Output volatility ; Private Sector Development ; Standard deviation ; Volatility ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Developing countries ; Domestic financial markets ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory & Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Government spending ; Growth rates ; Income ; Instrumental variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Output volatility ; Private Sector Development ; Standard deviation ; Volatility ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Developing countries ; Domestic financial markets ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory & Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Government spending ; Growth rates ; Income ; Instrumental variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Output volatility ; Private Sector Development ; Standard deviation ; Volatility
    Abstract: Recent estimates of the welfare cost of consumption volatility find that it is significant in developing nations, where it may reach an equivalent of reducing consumption by 10 percent per year. Hence, examining the determinants of consumption volatility is of utmost relevance. Based on cross-country data for the period 1960-2005, the paper explains consumption volatility using three sets of variables: one refers to the volatility of income and the persistence of income shocks; the second set of variables refers to policy volatility, considering the volatility of public spending and the size of government; while the third set captures the ability of agents to smooth shocks, and includes the depth of the domestic financial markets as well as the degree of integration to international capital markets. To allow for potential endogenous regressors, in particular the volatility of fiscal policy and the size of government, the system is estimated using the instrumental variables method. The results indicate that, besides income volatility, the variables with the largest and most robust impact on consumption volatility are government size and the volatility of public spending. Results also show that deeper and more stable domestic financial markets reduce the volatility of consumption, and that more integrated financial markets to the international capital markets are associated with lower volatility of consumption
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (29 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Dessus, Sebastien Migration And Education Decisions In A Dynamic General Equilibrium Framework
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Dependency ratios ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human capital ; Inequality ; Investm ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Labor supply ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migrant ; Migration ; Policy research ; Policy research working paper ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Progress ; Remittances ; Skilled workers ; Social Protections and Labor ; Tertiary Education ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Dependency ratios ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human capital ; Inequality ; Investm ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Labor supply ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migrant ; Migration ; Policy research ; Policy research working paper ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Progress ; Remittances ; Skilled workers ; Social Protections and Labor ; Tertiary Education ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Dependency ratios ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human capital ; Inequality ; Investm ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Labor supply ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migrant ; Migration ; Policy research ; Policy research working paper ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Progress ; Remittances ; Skilled workers ; Social Protections and Labor ; Tertiary Education
    Abstract: With growing international skilled labor mobility, education and migration decisions have become increasingly inter-related, and potentially have a large impact on the growth trajectories of source countries, through their effects on labor supply, savings, or the cost of education. The authors develop a generic dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the education-migration nexus in a consistent framework. They use the model as a laboratory to test empirical conditions for the existence of net brain gain, that is, greater domestic accumulation of human capital (in per capita terms) with greater migration of skilled workers. The results suggest that although some structural parameters can favor simultaneously greater human capital accumulation and greater skilled migration - such as high ratio of remittances over domestic incomes, high dependency ratios in migrant households, low dependency ratios in source countries, increasing returns to scale in the education sector, technological transfers and export market access with Diasporas, and efficient financial markets - this does not necessarily mean that greater migration encourages the constitution of greater stocks of human capital in source countries
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  • 24
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (55 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Lane, Philip R The International Financial Integration of China And India
    Keywords: Balance Sheets ; Bank Policy ; Borrowers ; Capital Flows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equity ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Assets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Developments ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Holdings ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Balance Sheets ; Bank Policy ; Borrowers ; Capital Flows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equity ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Assets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Developments ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Holdings ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Balance Sheets ; Bank Policy ; Borrowers ; Capital Flows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equity ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Assets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Developments ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Holdings ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities (with the exception of China's foreign direct investment liabilities), these countries are large holders of official reserves. Second, their international balance sheets are highly asymmetric: both are "short equity, long debt." Third, China and India have improved their net external positions over the past decade although, based on their income level, neoclassical models would predict them to be net borrowers. Domestic financial developments and policies seem essential in understanding these patterns of integration. These include financial liberalization and exchange rate policies, domestic financial sector policies, and the impact of financial reform on savings and investment rates. Changes in these factors will affect the international financial integration of China and India (through shifts in capital flows and asset and liability holdings) and, consequently, the international financial system
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Castro, Lucio The Impact of Trade With China And India On Argentina's Manufacturing Employment
    Keywords: Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Demand ; Distortions ; Econometric Model ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Appreciation ; Exchange Rate Appreciations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Import ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Policy ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Water Res ; Water and Industry ; Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Demand ; Distortions ; Econometric Model ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Appreciation ; Exchange Rate Appreciations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Import ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Policy ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Water Res ; Water and Industry ; Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Demand ; Distortions ; Econometric Model ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Appreciation ; Exchange Rate Appreciations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Import ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Policy ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Water Res ; Water and Industry
    Abstract: For many in Latin America, the increasing participation of China and India in international markets is seen as a looming shadow of two "mighty giants" on the region's manufacturing sector. Are they really mighty giants when it comes to their impact on manufacturing employment? The authors attempt to answer this question by estimating the effects of trade with China and India on Argentina's industrial employment. They use a dynamic econometric model and industry level data to estimate the effects of trade with China and India on the level of employment in Argentina's manufacturing sector. Results suggest that trade with China and India only had a small negative effect on industrial employment, even during the swift trade liberalization of the 1990s
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (71 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bandiera, Luca The "How To" of Fiscal Sustainability
    Keywords: Bank Policy ; Contingent Liabilities ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Data ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Defic Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marke ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Policy ; Contingent Liabilities ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Data ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Defic Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marke ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Policy ; Contingent Liabilities ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Data ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Defic Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marke ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis for many developing countries. To further enhance understanding of fiscal policy and the constraints faced by policymakers, the authors develop a toolkit for FSA in middle-income countries which builds on previous work in this area and on new developments in dealing with uncertainty. The FSA toolkit includes an Excel-based FSA tool and a technical manual accompanying it. The FSA tool is standardized and simple, but at the same time flexible enough to allow for user-defined country-specifics. This manual provides step-by-step technical instructions for running the FSA tool and includes mathematical appendices and a glossary
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (27 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: David, Antonio C Are Price-Based Capital Account Regulations Effective In Developing Countries ?
    Keywords: Asset Price ; Balance Sheets ; Bank Policy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Boom-Bust Cycle ; Capital Account ; Capital Flows ; Capital Flows ; Capital Inflows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberal ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Asset Price ; Balance Sheets ; Bank Policy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Boom-Bust Cycle ; Capital Account ; Capital Flows ; Capital Flows ; Capital Inflows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberal ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Asset Price ; Balance Sheets ; Bank Policy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Boom-Bust Cycle ; Capital Account ; Capital Flows ; Capital Flows ; Capital Inflows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberal ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The author evaluates the effectiveness of policy measures adopted by Chile and Colombia, aiming to mitigate the deleterious effects of pro-cyclical capital flows. In the case of Chile, according to his Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis, capital controls succeeded in reducing net short-term capital flows but did not affect long-term flows. As far as Colombia is concerned, the regulations were capable of affecting total flows and also long-term ones. In addition, the co-integration models indicate that the regulations did not have a direct effect on the real exchange rate in the Chilean case. Nonetheless, the model used for Colombia did detect a direct impact of the capital controls on the real exchange rate. Therefore, the results do not seem to support the idea that those regulations were easily evaded
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  • 28
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (37 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Dollar, David Asian Century Or Multi-Polar Century ?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demographic ; Developing Countries ; Developing Economies ; Economic Performance ; Economic Performances ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Production and Transportation ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Trade ; Future ; Future Prospects ; Globalization ; Growth Rates ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Labor ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demographic ; Developing Countries ; Developing Economies ; Economic Performance ; Economic Performances ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Production and Transportation ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Trade ; Future ; Future Prospects ; Globalization ; Growth Rates ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Labor ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demographic ; Developing Countries ; Developing Economies ; Economic Performance ; Economic Performances ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Production and Transportation ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Trade ; Future ; Future Prospects ; Globalization ; Growth Rates ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Labor ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The "rise of Asia" is something of a myth. During 1990-2005 China accounted for 28 percent of global growth, measured at purchasing power parity (PPP). India accounted for 9 percent. The rest of developing Asia, with nearly a billion people, accounted for only 7 percent, the same as Latin America. Hence there is no general success of Asian developing economies. China has grown better than its developing neighbors because it started its reform with a better base of human capital, has been more open to foreign trade and investment, and created good investment climates in coastal cities. China's success changes the equation going forward: its wages are now two to three times higher than in the populous Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Vietnam), and China will become an ever-larger importer of natural resource and labor-intensive products. Developing countries need to become more open and improve their investment climates to benefit from these opportunities. China itself faces new challenges that could hamper its further development: unsustainable trade imbalance with the United States, energy and water scarcity and unsustainable use of natural resources, and growing inequality and social tension. To address the first two of these challenges, good cooperation between China and the United States is essential. The author concludes that we are more likely to be facing a "multi-polar century," than an Asian century
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  • 29
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (26 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: David, Antonio C Controls On Capital Inflows And External Shocks
    Keywords: Bank Policy ; Capital Account ; Capital Flows ; Capital Inflows ; Credit Expansion ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Shocks ; Interest ; International Rates ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Policy ; Capital Account ; Capital Flows ; Capital Inflows ; Credit Expansion ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Shocks ; Interest ; International Rates ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Policy ; Capital Account ; Capital Flows ; Capital Inflows ; Credit Expansion ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Shocks ; Interest ; International Rates ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The author attempts to analyze whether price-based controls on capital inflows are successful in insulating economies against external shocks. He presents results from vector auto regressive (VAR) models that indicate that Chile and Colombia, countries that adopted controls on capital inflows, seem to have been relatively well insulated against external disturbances. Subsequently, he uses the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration to isolate the effects of the capital controls on the pass-through of external disturbances to domestic interest rates in those economies. The author concludes that there is evidence that the capital controls allowed for greater policy autonomy
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (33 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bussolo, Maurizio Remittances And The Real Exchange Rate
    Keywords: Capital Inflow ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Domestic Economy ; Dutch Disease ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; External Financing ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Rates ; International Markets ; Loss of Competitiveness ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Capital Inflow ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Domestic Economy ; Dutch Disease ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; External Financing ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Rates ; International Markets ; Loss of Competitiveness ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Capital Inflow ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Domestic Economy ; Dutch Disease ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; External Financing ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Rates ; International Markets ; Loss of Competitiveness ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Existing empirical evidence indicates that remittances have a positive impact on a good number of development indicators of recipient countries. Yet when flows are too large relative to the size of the recipient economies, as those observed in a number of Latin American countries, they may also bring a number of undesired problems. Among those probably the most feared in this context is the Dutch Disease. This paper explores the empirical evidence regarding the impact of remittances on the real exchange rate. The findings suggest that remittances indeed appear to lead to a significant real exchange rate appreciation. The paper also explores policy options that may somewhat offset the observed effect
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  • 31
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (54 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Suescun, Rodrigo The Size And Effectiveness of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers In Latin America
    Keywords: Bank Policy ; Business cycle ; Capital market ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Government spending ; Macroeconomic volatility ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Open economy ; Private Sector Development ; Tax ; Tax code ; Tax system ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Bank Policy ; Business cycle ; Capital market ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Government spending ; Macroeconomic volatility ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Open economy ; Private Sector Development ; Tax ; Tax code ; Tax system ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Bank Policy ; Business cycle ; Capital market ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policy ; Government spending ; Macroeconomic volatility ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Open economy ; Private Sector Development ; Tax ; Tax code ; Tax system ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper measures the size of automatic fiscal revenue stabilizers and evaluates their role in Latin America. It introduces a relatively rich tax structure into a dynamic, stochastic, multi-sector small open economy inhabited by rule-of-thumb consumers (who consume their wages and do not save or borrow) and Ricardian households to study the stabilizing properties of different parameters of the tax code. The economy faces multiple sources of business cycle fluctuations: (1) world capital market shocks; (2) world business cycle shocks; (3) terms of trade shocks; (4) government spending shocks; and (5) nontradable and (6) tradable sector technology innovations. Calibrating the model economy to a typical Latin American economy allows the evaluation of its ability to mimic the region's observed business cycle frequency properties and the assessment of the quantitative relationship between tax code parameters, business cycle forcing variables, and business cycle behavior. The model captures many of the salient features of Latin America's business cycle facts and finds that the degree of smoothing provided by the automatic revenue stabilizers-described by various properties of the tax system-is negligible. Simulation results seem to suggest an invariance property for middle-income countries: the amplitude of the business cycle is independent of the tax structure. And government size-measured by the GDP ratio of government spending-plays the role of an automatic stabilizer, but its smoothing effect is very weak
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (41 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Christiaensen, Luc Consumption Risk, Technology Adoption, And Poverty Traps
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Assets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Decision making ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Income ; Inefficiency ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Product markets ; Profitability ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sunk costs ; Transactions costs ; Wealth ; Agriculture ; Assets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Decision making ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Income ; Inefficiency ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Product markets ; Profitability ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sunk costs ; Transactions costs ; Wealth ; Agriculture ; Assets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Decision making ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Income ; Inefficiency ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Product markets ; Profitability ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sunk costs ; Transactions costs ; Wealth
    Abstract: Much has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receiving much attention. This paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented-the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests. Building on an explicit model, this is explored in panel data for Ethiopia. Historical rainfall distributions are used to identify the counterfactual consumption risk. Controlling for unobserved household and time-varying village characteristics, it emerges that not just ex-ante credit constraints, but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail, discourage the application of fertilizer. The lack of insurance causes inefficiency in production choices
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Berthelemy, Jean-Claude Exploring Lebanon's Growth Prospects
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Barriers to entry ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Damages ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic activity ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; Growth potential ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Private property ; Real GDP ; Access to Finance ; Barriers to entry ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Damages ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic activity ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; Growth potential ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Private property ; Real GDP ; Access to Finance ; Barriers to entry ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Damages ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic activity ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; Growth potential ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Private property ; Real GDP
    Abstract: This paper attempts to identify Lebanon's greatest constraints to economic growth, following a growth diagnosis approach. It concludes that fiscal imbalances and barriers to entry are most binding on long-term growth. Macroeconomic imbalances and related perceived risks affect the nature of investment decisions in Lebanon, in favor of liquid instruments rather than longer-term productive investments. Further, many barriers to entry discourage agents from investing in a number of markets: legal impediments to competition, corruption, and a set of fiscal incentives favoring the allocation of resources to non-tradable sectors, where potential demand and investment opportunities are scarcer. In turn, using a steady-state computable general equilibrium model, the paper assesses the long-term growth impact of a selected set of policy reforms envisaged to lift such constraints. Results suggest that 1 to 2 percentage points of additional GDP growth per year could be gained through public expenditure reform, greater domestic competition, and tax harmonization
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cravino, Javier Substitution Between Foreign Capital In China, India, The Rest of The World, And Latin America
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of the emergence of China and India on foreign capital stocks in other economies. Using bilateral data from 1990-2003 and drawing from the knowledge-capital model of the multinational enterprises to control for fundamental determinants of foreign capital stocks across countries, the evidence suggests that the impact of foreign capital in China and India on other countries' foreign capital stocks has been positive. This finding is robust to the use of ordinary least squares, Poisson, and negative binomial estimators; to the inclusion of time and country-pair fixed effects; to the inclusion of natural-resource endowments; and to the use of the sum of foreign capital stocks in Hong Kong (China) and mainland China instead of using only the latter's foreign capital stocks. There is surprisingly weak evidence of substitution in manufacturing foreign capital stocks away from Central America and Mexico in favor of China, and from the Southern Cone countries to India, but these findings are not robust to the use of alternative estimation techniques
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  • 35
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (27 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Masson, Paul R The Growing Role of The Euro In Emerging Market Finance
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Issuance ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Emerging Market ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Reserve ; Holdings ; Home Currency ; International Finance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Finance ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Issuance ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Emerging Market ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Reserve ; Holdings ; Home Currency ; International Finance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Finance ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Issuance ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Emerging Market ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Reserve ; Holdings ; Home Currency ; International Finance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Finance ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: More than eight years after the introduction of the euro, impacts on developing countries have been relatively modest. Overall, the euro has become much more important in debt issuance than in official foreign exchange reserve holdings. The former has benefited from the creation of a large set of investors for which the euro is the home currency, while demand for euro reserves has been held back by the dominance of the dollar as a vehicle and intervention currency, and the greater liquidity of the market for US treasury securities. Fears of further dollar decline may fuel some shifts out of dollars into euros, however, with the potential for a period of financial instability
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (29 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bussolo, Maurizio Do Remittances Have A Flip Side ?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Effects ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; General Equilibrium ; High Unemployment ; Information ; Investment ; Labor ; Labor ; Labor Costs ; Labor Demand ; Labor Force ; Labor Force Participation ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Effects ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; General Equilibrium ; High Unemployment ; Information ; Investment ; Labor ; Labor ; Labor Costs ; Labor Demand ; Labor Force ; Labor Force Participation ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Effects ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; General Equilibrium ; High Unemployment ; Information ; Investment ; Labor ; Labor ; Labor Costs ; Labor Demand ; Labor Force ; Labor Force Participation ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Econometric analysis has established a negative relationship between labor supply and remittances in Jamaica. The authors incorporate this ex-post evidence in a general equilibrium model to investigate economywide effects of increased remittance inflows. In this model, remittances reduce labor force participation by increasing the reservation wages of recipients. This exacerbates the real exchange rate appreciation, hurting Jamaica's export base and small manufacturing import-competing sector. Within the narrow margins of maneuver of a highly indebted government, the authors show that a revenue-neutral policy response of a simultaneous reduction in payroll taxes and increase in sales taxes can effectively counteract these potentially negative effects of remittances
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  • 37
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (41 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Budina, Nina Quantitative Approaches To Fiscal Sustainability Analysis
    Keywords: Balance of Payments ; Balance of Payments Crises ; Bank Policy ; Budget ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Management ; Debt Management Policies ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Deficits ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Balance of Payments ; Balance of Payments Crises ; Bank Policy ; Budget ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Management ; Debt Management Policies ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Deficits ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Balance of Payments ; Balance of Payments Crises ; Bank Policy ; Budget ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Management ; Debt Management Policies ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Deficits ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management
    Abstract: Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey
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  • 38
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (24 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Honohan, Patrick Dollarization And Exchange Rate Fluctuations
    Keywords: Bank Deposits ; Bank Policy ; Central Bank ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Depositors ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Movements ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Holding ; Inflation ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Deposits ; Bank Policy ; Central Bank ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Depositors ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Movements ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Holding ; Inflation ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Deposits ; Bank Policy ; Central Bank ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Depositors ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Movements ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Holding ; Inflation ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Although the worldwide growth in dollarization of bank deposits has recently slowed, it has already reached very high levels in dozens of countries. Building on earlier findings that allowed the main cross-country variations in the share of dollars to be explained in terms of national policies and institutions, this paper turns to analysis of short-run variations, particularly the response of dollarization to exchange rate changes, which is shown to be too small to warrant "fear of floating" by dollarized economies. But high dollarization is shown to increase the risk of depreciation and even suspension, as indicated by interest rate spreads. While specific policy is needed to deal with the risks associated with dollarization, the underlying causes of unwanted dollarization should also be tackled
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  • 39
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus Post-Conflict Aid, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment, And Catch-Up Growth
    Keywords: Absorptive Capacities ; Assets ; Conflict and Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Debt Markets ; Depreciation ; Development Economics and Aims ; Domestic-Currency ; Dutch Disease ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Level ; Export ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development ; Absorptive Capacities ; Assets ; Conflict and Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Debt Markets ; Depreciation ; Development Economics and Aims ; Domestic-Currency ; Dutch Disease ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Level ; Export ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development ; Absorptive Capacities ; Assets ; Conflict and Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Debt Markets ; Depreciation ; Development Economics and Aims ; Domestic-Currency ; Dutch Disease ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Level ; Export ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development
    Abstract: Post-conflict countries receive substantial aid flows after the start of peace. While post-conflict countries' capacity to absorb aid (that is, the quality of their policies and institutions) is built up only gradually after the onset of peace, the evidence suggests that aid tends to peak immediately after peace is attained and decline thereafter. Aid composition broadly reflects post-conflict priorities, with large parts of aid financing social expenditure and infrastructure investment. Aid has significant short-term effects on the real exchange rate (RER), as inferred from the behavior of RER in the world. While moderate RER overvaluation is observed in post-conflicts, it cannot be traced down to the aid flows. The empirical evidence on world growth reveals new findings about the pattern of catch-up growth during post-conflicts and the role of key growth determinants on post-conflict growth. Aid is an important determinant of growth, both generally and more strongly during post-conflict periods. Because RER misalignment reduces growth, RER overvaluation during post-conflicts reduces catch-up growth. Aid and RER overvaluation combined also lower growth. But the negative growth effect of RER overvaluation declines with financial development
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (47 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Skamnelos, Ilias Credit growth in emerging Europe
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Banking Sector ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Credit Growth ; Credit Rating ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial contagion ; Financial crises ; Financial crisis ; Financial stability ; International Bank ; International financial institutions ; Market economy ; Access to Finance ; Banking Sector ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Credit Growth ; Credit Rating ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial contagion ; Financial crises ; Financial crisis ; Financial stability ; International Bank ; International financial institutions ; Market economy ; Access to Finance ; Banking Sector ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Credit Growth ; Credit Rating ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial contagion ; Financial crises ; Financial crisis ; Financial stability ; International Bank ; International financial institutions ; Market economy
    Abstract: High credit growth in Emerging Europe, generally considered a sign of catching-up with the "old" Europe, has begun receiving considerable attention among investors and policymakers alike. Given heightened global risks and the demands under the European Union accession process, the need to better understand this high credit growth's drivers, riskiness, and the possible macroeconomic and financial stability consequences is strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach in reviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region, examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector, and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities. They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up with older European countries, a soft landing as experienced by Portugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing as experienced by Asia in 1997
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  • 41
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (27 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Francois, Joseph Market Structure And Market Access
    Keywords: Access to Markets ; Competition ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Distribution ; Domestic Market ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Access ; Market Power ; Market Structure ; Markets ; Markets and Market Access ; Monopoly ; Price ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Retail ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Access to Markets ; Competition ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Distribution ; Domestic Market ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Access ; Market Power ; Market Structure ; Markets ; Markets and Market Access ; Monopoly ; Price ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Retail ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Access to Markets ; Competition ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Distribution ; Domestic Market ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Access ; Market Power ; Market Structure ; Markets ; Markets and Market Access ; Monopoly ; Price ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Retail ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: The authors examine an issue at the nexus of domestic competition policy and international trade, the interaction between goods trade and market power in domestic trade and distribution sectors. Theory suggests a set of linkages between service-sector competition and goods trade supported by econometrics involving imports of 22 OECD countries compared with 69 exporters. Competition in services affects the volume of goods trade. Additionally, because of interaction between tariffs and competition, the market structure of the domestic service sector becomes increasingly important as tariffs are reduced. Empirically service competition apparently matters most for exporters in smaller, poorer countries. The results also suggest that while negotiated agreements leading to cross-border services liberalization may boost goods trade as well, they may also lead to a fall in goods trade when such liberalization involves foreign direct investment leading to increased service sector concentration
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  • 42
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (33 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Willmann, Gerald Substitutability And Protectionism
    Keywords: Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demands ; Domestic Prices ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exogenous Shocks ; Export Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fixed Effects ; Free Trade ; Import ; Imports ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Rapid Grow ; Trade Policy ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demands ; Domestic Prices ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exogenous Shocks ; Export Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fixed Effects ; Free Trade ; Import ; Imports ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Rapid Grow ; Trade Policy ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demands ; Domestic Prices ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exogenous Shocks ; Export Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fixed Effects ; Free Trade ; Import ; Imports ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Rapid Grow ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: The authors examine the trade policy response of Latin American governments to the rapid growth of China and India in world markets. To explain higher protection in sectors where a large share is imported from these countries, they extend the "protection for sale" model to allow for different degrees of substitutability between domestically produced and imported varieties. The extension suggests that higher levels of protection toward Chinese goods can be explained by high substitutability between domestically produced goods and Chinese goods, whereas lower levels of protection toward goods imported from India can be explained by low substitutability with domestically produced goods. The data support the extension to the "protection for sale" model, which performs better than the original specification in terms of explaining Latin America's structure of protection
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (24 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Hesse, Heiko Monetary Policy, Structural Break, And The Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Thailand
    Keywords: Central bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign interest rate ; Interest rates ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary expansion ; Monetary policy ; Monetary shocks ; Money supply ; Private Sector Development ; Transmission mechanism ; Transmission mechanisms ; Central bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign interest rate ; Interest rates ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary expansion ; Monetary policy ; Monetary shocks ; Money supply ; Private Sector Development ; Transmission mechanism ; Transmission mechanisms ; Central bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign interest rate ; Interest rates ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary expansion ; Monetary policy ; Monetary shocks ; Money supply ; Private Sector Development ; Transmission mechanism ; Transmission mechanisms
    Abstract: The paper studies monetary policy and the monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand in light of the Asian crisis in 1997. Existing studies that adopt structural vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches do not give a clear and agreed-upon view how monetary shocks are transmitted to the Thai economy that is subject to structural breaks. This study explicitly models a pre-crisis and post-crisis cointegrated VAR model. This analysis supports arguments that the trinity of open capital markets, pegged exchange rate regime, and monetary policy autonomy is inconsistent in the pre-crisis period. In contrast, the model points to an effective monetary policy in the post-crisis period. Further, the author analyzes the common driving trends of the model
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (25 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel The Growth of China And India In World Trade
    Keywords: Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy ; Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy ; Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between the growth of China and India in world merchandise trade and Latin American and Caribbean commercial flows from two perspectives. First, the authors focus on the opportunity that China and India's markets have offered Latin American and Caribbean exporters during 2000-2004. Second, empirical analyses examine the partial correlation between Chinese and Indian bilateral trade flows and Latin American and Caribbean trade with third markets. Both analyses rely on the gravity model of international trade. Econometric estimations that control for the systematic correlation between expected bilateral trade volumes and the size of their regression errors, as well as importer and exporter fixed effects and year effects, provide consistent estimates of the relevant parameters for different groups of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results suggest that the growth of the two Asian markets has produced large opportunities for Latin American and Caribbean exporters, which nevertheless have not been fully exploited. The evidence concerning the effects of Chinese and Indian trade with third markets is not robust, but there is little evidence of negative effects on Latin American and Caribbean exports of non-fuel merchandise. In general, China's and to a large extent India's growing presence in world trade has been good news for Latin America and the Caribbean, but some of the potential benefits remain unexploited
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  • 45
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (39 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo Fear of Appreciation
    Keywords: Capital Accumulation ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depreciations ; Domestic Savings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regimes ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Performance ; Import ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Capital Accumulation ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depreciations ; Domestic Savings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regimes ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Performance ; Import ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Capital Accumulation ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depreciations ; Domestic Savings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regimes ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Performance ; Import ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate
    Abstract: In recent years the term "fear of floating" has been used to describe exchange rate regimes that, while officially flexible, in practice intervene heavily to avoid sudden or large depreciations. However, the data reveals that in most cases (and increasingly so in the 2000s) intervention has been aimed at limiting appreciations rather than depreciations, often motivated by the neo-mercantilist view of a depreciated real exchange rate as protection for domestic industries. As a first step to address the broader question of whether this view delivers on its promise, the authors examine whether this "fear of appreciation" has a positive impact on growth performance in developing economies. The authors show that depreciated exchange rates appear to induce higher growth, but that the effect, rather than through import substitution or export booms as argued by the mercantilist view, works largely through the deepening of domestic savings and capital accumulation
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bogetic, Zeljko Cote d'Ivoire
    Keywords: Competitiveness ; Consumer Price Indices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Deflators ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP Deflator ; Gross Domestic Product ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Trade Competitiveness ; Value Added ; Wages ; Competitiveness ; Consumer Price Indices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Deflators ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP Deflator ; Gross Domestic Product ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Trade Competitiveness ; Value Added ; Wages ; Competitiveness ; Consumer Price Indices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Deflators ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP Deflator ; Gross Domestic Product ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Trade Competitiveness ; Value Added ; Wages
    Abstract: This paper explores competitiveness of Cote d'Ivoire's economy over a long period of 1960-2003 and its link with cocoa prices. The main conclusions are as follows. First, using four measures of real effective exchange rate (REER) for the 1960-2002 period, we track the evolution of REER and conclude, inter alia, that until 2003, REER remained well below its 1994 level. Second, we find that based on our measure of the multilateral REER with dynamic weights, which covers most recorded trade, France no longer dominates Cote d'Ivoire's trade. Instead, Cote d'Ivoire has diversified its set of trading partners. Unfortunately, it has also specialized in one export product, raw cocoa. This paper aims to contribute to the question to what extent do cocoa prices affect Cote d'Ivoire's competitiveness in world trade? Third, the answer to this question is that cocoa prices are an important determinant of Cote d'Ivoire's competitiveness. Similar to the case of a classic "Dutch Disease," increases in the real world price of a "natural resource" (i.e., cocoa) tend to result in the appreciation of the CFA franc and a loss in competitiveness. Econometric tests further confirm that 1994 was a "break-point" not only for growth and productivity (as documented in the two related papers) but also for trade competitiveness. Recent productivity per worker trends versus wages also seem to indicate slow growth in 1996-2000, without major improvement in competitiveness
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  • 47
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (39 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bayraktar, Nihal Specification of Investment Functions In Sub-Saharan Africa
    Keywords: Accumulation ; Capital ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depreciation ; Distribution of Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Extensive ; External ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Capital ; Income ; Investment ; Investment ; Investment Behavior ; Investment Functions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Accumulation ; Capital ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depreciation ; Distribution of Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Extensive ; External ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Capital ; Income ; Investment ; Investment ; Investment Behavior ; Investment Functions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Accumulation ; Capital ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depreciation ; Distribution of Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Extensive ; External ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Capital ; Income ; Investment ; Investment ; Investment Behavior ; Investment Functions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: It is a well-known fact that one of the most important determinants of growth is private investment. But in the developing country context of widespread poverty, the effects of initial conditions on the process of capital accumulation have seldom been investigated. This paper highlights heterogeneity in the process of capital accumulation across different countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, and derives a formal specification of investment functions in the primary, industry, and service sectors in the region using a variation of the combined Tobin's Q Theory and the neoclassical models of investment. The results highlight a more rapid accumulation of capital in the relatively high income subpanel and a widening public-private capital accumulation gap. A functional specification points to the significance of aggregate profitability shocks, the financing cost of investment, and public capital stock in estimating the growth rate of private capital accumulation. These results are supported empirically, as highlighted by the relatively small absolute deviation between actual and predicted value distributions
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (23 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Coulibaly, Souleymane Evaluating The Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Gravity model ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Trade ; Regional Trade Agreements ; Rules of origin ; Trade Effect ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade agreement ; Trade creation ; Trade effects ; Trade flows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Gravity model ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Trade ; Regional Trade Agreements ; Rules of origin ; Trade Effect ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade agreement ; Trade creation ; Trade effects ; Trade flows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Gravity model ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Trade ; Regional Trade Agreements ; Rules of origin ; Trade Effect ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade agreement ; Trade creation ; Trade effects ; Trade flows
    Abstract: Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (ECOWAS and SADC), Asia (AFTA and SAPTA) and Latin America (CACM, CAN, and MERCOSUR), estimating their impacts on their members' trade flows. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs, he proposes a variable taking into account the number of years of membership. He then combines a gravity model with kernel estimation techniques to capture the non-monotonic trade effects while imposing minimal structure on the model. The results indicate that except for SAPTA, these RTAs have had a positive impact on their members' intra-trade over the estimation period (1960-99). AFTA seems to be the most successful among them, with an estimated positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but its impact on their exports to the rest of the world is rather limited. During its first 10 years of existence, ECOWAS appears to have had a positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but this positive impact vanished over time. SAPTA's negative impact on its members' intra-trade is probably an implicit effect of the India-Pakistan tensions over the estimation period
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Melecky, Martin Choosing The Currency Structure For Sovereign Debt
    Keywords: Bank Policy ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange rate ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Risk ; Foreign currencies ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary policy ; Private Sector Development ; Risk Management ; Sovereign Debt ; Bank Policy ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange rate ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Risk ; Foreign currencies ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary policy ; Private Sector Development ; Risk Management ; Sovereign Debt ; Bank Policy ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange rate ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Risk ; Foreign currencies ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary policy ; Private Sector Development ; Risk Management ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: This paper acknowledges the fact that some countries have to borrow in foreign currencies due to the various constraints they face. Starting from this point, the author reviews approaches for trying to determine the currency structure for sovereign debt, and discusses some issues inherent in these approaches. The analysis mainly focuses on the correlations of domestic fundamentals with the actual versus equilibrium exchange rate in light of the long-term perspective of a debt manager and changing exchange rate regimes. In addition, the author makes some observations on the characterization of exchange rate volatilities in the existing approaches
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  • 50
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bayraktar, Nihal Banking Sector Openness And Economic Growth
    Keywords: Accounting ; Auditing ; Bank ; Banking ; Banking Sector ; Banking Services ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Borrowing ; Capital ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Integration ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Financial Services ; Foreign Banks ; Labor Pollution ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Accounting ; Auditing ; Bank ; Banking ; Banking Sector ; Banking Services ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Borrowing ; Capital ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Integration ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Financial Services ; Foreign Banks ; Labor Pollution ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Accounting ; Auditing ; Bank ; Banking ; Banking Sector ; Banking Services ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Borrowing ; Capital ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Integration ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Financial Services ; Foreign Banks ; Labor Pollution ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Banking sector openness may directly affect growth by improving the access to financial services and indirectly by improving the efficiency of financial intermediaries, both of which reduce the cost of financing, and in turn, stimulate capital accumulation and economic growth. The objective of the paper is to empirically reinvestigate these direct and indirect links using a more advanced econometric technique (GMM dynamic panel estimators). An illustrative model is presented to link financial market development with investment. The empirical results confirm the presence of direct and indirect links, and thus provide support for countries planning to open their banking sector for international competition
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  • 51
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (50 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Salinas, Gonzalo Growth Before And After Trade Liberalization
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Development ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Growth ; Economic Indicators ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Goods ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Protectionism ; Theory ; Trade Law ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Development ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Growth ; Economic Indicators ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Goods ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Protectionism ; Theory ; Trade Law ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Development ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Growth ; Economic Indicators ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Goods ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Protectionism ; Theory ; Trade Law
    Abstract: The empirical study of the impact of trade liberalization has not convinced the skeptics about the economic gains after trade reforms. Some have even argued that trade reforms have led to economic collapse and to deindustrialization. Using a sample that excludes countries that were subject to major exogenous disruptions, the authors note that post-reform economic growth was 1.2 percentage points higher than before the reforms. This is remarkable considering that pre-reform periods were characterized by highly expansionary state policies and large external borrowing, and the crisis years that preceded trade liberalization in the comparisons are eliminated. Through multivariate fixed effects estimations the authors calculate that annual per capita GDP growth rates increased by up to 2.6 percentage points after the trade reforms, compared to a counterfactual that takes into consideration the evolution of several growth determinants. Moreover, trade liberalization has been followed by an acceleration of growth in investment, exports of goods and services, and manufacturing exports, and as opposed to common belief, outward orientation did not lead to significant deindustrialization and actually seems to have increased export diversification. Growth acceleration occurred irrespective of income per capita level and was quite significant in Sub-Saharan Africa. As expected, small countries benefited most from the reforms
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  • 52
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bown, Chad P The World Trade Organization And Antidumping In Developing Countries
    Keywords: Access ; Antidumping ; Antidumping Database ; Antidumping Measures ; Antidumping Policy ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Domestic Industries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Welfare ; Exporters ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Globalization and Financial Integration ; Import Competition ; Import Penetration ; Industrial Management ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; Access ; Antidumping ; Antidumping Database ; Antidumping Measures ; Antidumping Policy ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Domestic Industries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Welfare ; Exporters ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Globalization and Financial Integration ; Import Competition ; Import Penetration ; Industrial Management ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; Access ; Antidumping ; Antidumping Database ; Antidumping Measures ; Antidumping Policy ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Domestic Industries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Welfare ; Exporters ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Globalization and Financial Integration ; Import Competition ; Import Penetration ; Industrial Management ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry
    Abstract: Since the 1995 inception of the World Trade Organization (WTO), developing countries have become some of the most frequent users of the WTO-sanctioned antidumping trade policy instrument. This paper exploits newly available data to examine the pattern of actual industrial use of antidumping in nine of the major "new user" developing countries - Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Turkey and Venezuela. For these countries we are able to match data from two newly available sources: data on production in 28 different 3-digit ISIC industries from the Trade, Production and Protection Database to data on antidumping investigations, outcomes and imports at the 6-digit Harmonized System (HS) product level from the Global Antidumping Database. Our econometric analysis is to estimate a two-stage model of the industry-level decision to pursue an antidumping investigation and the national government's decision of whether and how much antidumping import protection to provide. First, we find evidence consistent with the theory of endogenous trade policy: larger industries that face substantial import competition are more likely to pursue an antidumping investigation, and larger and more concentrated industries receive greater antidumping protection from imports. Second, we find that industries that use antidumping are more likely to face the changing economic conditions specified by the technical evidentiary criteria of the WTO Antidumping Agreement: industries that face rapidly falling import prices are more likely to pursue an investigation, and industries that are more susceptible to cyclical dumping due to greater capital investment expenditures and that face rapidly increasing competition from imports receive greater antidumping protection
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  • 53
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (42 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Anos Casero, Paloma Fiscal And Social Impact of A Nominal Exchange Rate Devaluation In Djibouti
    Keywords: Accounting ; Bank Policy ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency Devaluation ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Developing Countries ; Economic Development ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Currency ; Goods ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Accounting ; Bank Policy ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency Devaluation ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Developing Countries ; Economic Development ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Currency ; Goods ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Accounting ; Bank Policy ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency Devaluation ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Developing Countries ; Economic Development ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Currency ; Goods ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Limited fiscal space limits Djibouti's ability to meet the Millennium Development Goals and improve the living conditions of its population. Djibouti's fiscal structure is unique in that almost 70 percent of government revenue is denominated in foreign currency (import taxes, foreign aid grants, and military revenue) while over 50 percent of government expenditure is denominated in local currency (wages, salaries, and social transfers). Djibouti's economic structure is also unusual in that merchandise exports of local origin are insignificant, and the country relies heavily on imported goods (food, medicines, consumer and capital goods). A currency devaluation, by reducing real wages, could potentially generate additional fiscal space that would help meet Djibouti's fundamental development goals. Using macroeconomic and household level data, the authors quantify the impact of a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate on fiscal savings, real public sector wages, real income, and poverty under various hypothetical scenarios of exchange-rate pass-through and magnitude of devaluation. They find that a currency devaluation could generate fiscal savings in the short-term, but it would have an adverse effect on poverty and income distribution. A 30 percent nominal exchange rate devaluation could generate fiscal savings amounting between 3 and 7 percent of GDP. At the same time, a 30 percent nominal devaluation could cause nearly a fifth of the poorest households to fall below the extreme poverty line and pull the same fraction of upper middle-income households below the national poverty line. The authors also find that currency devaluation could generate net fiscal savings even after accounting for the additional social transfers needed to compensate the poor for their real income loss. However, the absence of formal social safety nets limits the government's readiness to provide well-targeted and timely social transfers to the poor
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (66 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Medvedev, Denis Beyond Trade
    Keywords: Barriers ; Common Market ; Competition ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Investment ; Free Trade ; Harmonization ; Income ; Intellectual Property ; Interest ; International Capital ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Barriers ; Common Market ; Competition ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Investment ; Free Trade ; Harmonization ; Income ; Intellectual Property ; Interest ; International Capital ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Barriers ; Common Market ; Competition ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Investment ; Free Trade ; Harmonization ; Income ; Intellectual Property ; Interest ; International Capital ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration
    Abstract: The author investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on the net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows of member countries using a comprehensive database of PTAs in a panel setting. He finds that PTA membership is associated with a positive change in net FDI inflows, and the FDI gains are increasing in the market size of the PTA partners and their proximity to the host country. The author identifies several different channels through which preferential trade liberalization may affect FDI, and confirms that both threshold effects (signing the agreement) and market size effects (joining a larger and faster-growing common market) are important determinants of net FDI inflows, although the latter seem to dominate. The estimated relationship is largely driven by North-South PTAs, and is most pronounced in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the period when the majority of "deep integration" PTAs had been advanced
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (54 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Sakho, Yaye Seynabou Contagion And Firms' Internationalization In Latin America
    Keywords: Bank Policy ; Capital Market ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Market ; Emerging Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Contagion ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Information Asymmetry ; International ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Policy ; Capital Market ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Market ; Emerging Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Contagion ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Information Asymmetry ; International ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Policy ; Capital Market ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Market ; Emerging Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Contagion ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Information Asymmetry ; International ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The author investigates whether contagion matters when emerging market firms cross-list their stocks in a developed capital market. She develops a rational expectations model where financial markets are segmented along emerging markets' borders and contagion spreads from one emerging market to another through the actions of international investors rebalancing their portfolio using stocks cross-listed in the developed market. The author finds that contagion is a cost of internationalization as cross-listed stocks are more affected by contagion than pure domestic stocks. Furthermore, a welfare analysis of international cross-listing versus financial autarky suggests that the benefits of internationalization in terms of less information asymmetry and better market efficiency offset the costs of contagion. Her model is able to explain some transmission of the 1998 Brazilian crisis to Mexico and Chile
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  • 56
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (33 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman V The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability
    Keywords: Aggregate Output ; Business Cycle ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; External Shocks ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Depth ; Foreign Exchange ; Free Trade ; Growth ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Management ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Aggregate Output ; Business Cycle ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; External Shocks ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Depth ; Foreign Exchange ; Free Trade ; Growth ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Management ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Aggregate Output ; Business Cycle ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; External Shocks ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Depth ; Foreign Exchange ; Free Trade ; Growth ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Management ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The authors examine empirically how domestic structural characteristics related to openness and product- and factor-market flexibility influence the impact that terms-of-trade shocks can have on aggregate output. For this purpose, they apply an econometric methodology based on semi-structural vector auto-regressions to a panel of 90 countries with annual observations for the period 1974-2000. Using this methodology, the authors isolate and standardize the shocks, estimate their impact on GDP, and examine how this impact depends on the domestic conditions outlined above. They find that larger trade openness magnifies the output impact of external shocks, particularly the negative ones, while improvements in labor market flexibility and financial openness reduce their impact. Domestic financial depth has a more nuanced role in stabilizing the economy. It helps reduce the impact of external shocks particularly in environments of high exposure-that is, when trade and financial openness are high, firm entry is unrestricted, and labor markets are rigid
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  • 57
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (35 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Anderson, Kym Reducing Distortions To Agricultural Incentives
    Keywords: Agribusiness ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Human Capital ; Import Barriers ; Incentives ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Protectionism ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Trade Policy ; Agribusiness ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Human Capital ; Import Barriers ; Incentives ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Protectionism ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Trade Policy ; Agribusiness ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Human Capital ; Import Barriers ; Incentives ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Protectionism ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: Most of the world's poorest people depend on farming for their livelihood. Earnings from farming in low-income countries are depressed partly due to a pro-urban bias in own-country policies, and partly because richer countries (including some developing countries) favor their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduce national and global economic growth and add to inequality and poverty in developing countries. Acknowledgement of that since the 1980s has given rise to greater pressures for reform, both internal and external. Over the past two decades numerous developing country governments have reduced their sectoral and trade policy distortions, while many high-income countries continue with protectionist policies that harm developing country exports of farm products. Recent research suggests that the agricultural protectionist policies of high-income countries reduce welfare in many developing countries. Most of those studies also suggest that full global liberalization of merchandise trade would raise value added in agriculture in developing country regions, and that much of the benefit from global reform would come not just from reform in high-income countries but also from liberalization among developing countries, including in many cases own-country reform. These findings raise three key questions that are addressed in this paper: To what extent have the reforms of the past two decades succeeded in reducing distortions to agricultural incentives? Do current policy distortions still discriminate against farmers in low-income countries? And what are the prospects for further reform in the next decade or so?
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  • 58
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (83 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Rutherford, Thomas Regional Impacts of Russia's Accession To The World Trade Organization
    Keywords: Competitiveness ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Imperfect Competition ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Markets and Market Access ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Competitiveness ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Imperfect Competition ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Markets and Market Access ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Competitiveness ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Imperfect Competition ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Markets and Market Access ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: In this paper we develop a computable general equilibrium model of the regions of Russia to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the regions of Russia. We estimate that the average gain in welfare as a percentage of consumption for the whole country is 7.8 percent (or 4.3 percent of consumption); we estimate that three regions will gain considerably more: Northwest (11.2 percent), St. Petersburg (10.6 percent) and Far East (9.7 percent). We estimate that the Urals will gain only 6.2 percent of consumption, considerably less than the national average. The principal explanation in our central analysis for the differences across regions is the ability of the different regions to benefit from a reduction in barriers against foreign direct investment. The three regions with the largest welfare gains are clearly the regions with the estimated largest shares of multinational investment. But the Urals has attracted relatively little FDI in the service sectors. An additional reason for differences across regions is quantified in our sensitivity analysis: regions may gain more from WTO accession if they can succeed in creating a good investment climate
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  • 59
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (26 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mahul, Olivier The Macro Financing of Natural Hazards In Developing Countries
    Keywords: Bank Policy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Contingent Debt ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Risk ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Instruments ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Hazard Risk Management ; Insurance ; Insurance Markets ; Insurance Markets ; Insurance Penetration ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Private Sector Development ; Urban Development ; Bank Policy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Contingent Debt ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Risk ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Instruments ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Hazard Risk Management ; Insurance ; Insurance Markets ; Insurance Markets ; Insurance Penetration ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Private Sector Development ; Urban Development ; Bank Policy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Contingent Debt ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Risk ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Instruments ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Hazard Risk Management ; Insurance ; Insurance Markets ; Insurance Markets ; Insurance Penetration ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Private Sector Development ; Urban Development
    Abstract: The authors propose a financial model to address the design of efficient risk financing strategies against natural disasters at the country level. It is simple enough to shed analytical light on some of the key issues but flexible and realistic enough to provide some quantitative guidance on the ex ante financing of catastrophic losses. The risk financing problem is decomposed into two steps. First, the resource gap, defined as the difference between losses and available ex-post resources (such as post-disaster aid), is identified. It determines the losses to be financed by ex ante financial instruments (reserves, catastrophe insurance, and contingent debt). Second, the cost-minimizing financial arrangements are derived from the marginal costs of the financial instruments. The model is solved through a series of graphical analyses that make this complex financial problem easier to apprehend. This model captures and explains the main impacts of financial parameters (such as insurance premium, cost of capital) on efficient risk financing structures
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  • 60
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (35 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Claessens, Stijn Taking Stock of Risk Management Techniques for Sovereigns
    Keywords: Bank Policy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Commodity Prices ; Creditworthiness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Risk ; Global Capital ; Global Capital Markets ; Instruments ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; International Financial Institution ; Labor Policies ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Bank Policy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Commodity Prices ; Creditworthiness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Risk ; Global Capital ; Global Capital Markets ; Instruments ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; International Financial Institution ; Labor Policies ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Bank Policy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Commodity Prices ; Creditworthiness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Risk ; Global Capital ; Global Capital Markets ; Instruments ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; International Financial Institution ; Labor Policies ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This paper reviews the current state of affairs and thinking on external risk management for developing countries. It tries to identify the reasons behind the limited risk management by sovereigns. Perverse incentives arising from a too generous international safety net, limited access to international financial markets by developing countries arising from low creditworthiness, a limited supply of financial risk management tools suited to developing countries, and a poor supply of skills have inhibited risk management. Another constraint has been the limited attention given to the strategic objectives for risk management. Going forward, the paper identifies actions by international financial markets, countries and international financial institutions that can help improve risk management
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  • 61
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (81 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kant, Asli Deposit Insurance Around The World
    Keywords: Bank ; Bank Failures ; Banking ; Banking Systems ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Deposit Insurance Coverage ; Deposit Insurance Schemes ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Safety Nets ; Governments ; Guara ; Insurance Law ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Law and Development ; Private Sector Development ; Bank ; Bank Failures ; Banking ; Banking Systems ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Deposit Insurance Coverage ; Deposit Insurance Schemes ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Safety Nets ; Governments ; Guara ; Insurance Law ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Law and Development ; Private Sector Development ; Bank ; Bank Failures ; Banking ; Banking Systems ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Deposit Insurance Coverage ; Deposit Insurance Schemes ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Safety Nets ; Governments ; Guara ; Insurance Law ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Law and Development ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: This paper updates the Demirgu?-Kunt and Sobaci (2001) cross-country deposit insurance database and extends it in several important dimensions. This new data set identifies both recent adopters and the ones that were not covered earlier due to a lack of data. Moreover, for the first time, it provides historical time series for several variables and adds new ones. The data were collected by surveying deposit insurance institutions and related agencies as well as through the use of various other country sources
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Limao, Nuno Trade Preferences to Small Developing Countries and the Welfare Costs of Lost Multilateral Liberalization
    Keywords: Balance of Payments ; Competitive Position ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Multilateral Liberalization ; Multilateral Trade Liberalization ; Political Economy ; Preferential Access ; Preferential Tariff ; Preferential Trade ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Region ; Balance of Payments ; Competitive Position ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Multilateral Liberalization ; Multilateral Trade Liberalization ; Political Economy ; Preferential Access ; Preferential Tariff ; Preferential Trade ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Region ; Balance of Payments ; Competitive Position ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Multilateral Liberalization ; Multilateral Trade Liberalization ; Political Economy ; Preferential Access ; Preferential Tariff ; Preferential Trade ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Region
    Abstract: The proliferation of preferential trade liberalization over the last 20 years has raised the question of whether it slows down multilateral trade liberalization. Recent theoretical and empirical evidence indicates this is the case even for unilateral preferences that developed countries provide to small and poor countries but there is no estimate of the resulting welfare costs. To avoid this stumbling block effect we suggest replacing unilateral preferences by a fixed import subsidy. We argue that this scheme would reduce the drag of preferences on multilateral liberalization and generate a Pareto improvement. More importantly, we provide the first estimates of the welfare cost of preferential liberalization as a stumbling block to multilateral liberalization. By combining recent estimates of the stumbling block effect of preferences with data for 170 countries and over 5,000 products we calculate the welfare effects of the United States, European Union and Japan switching from unilateral preferences to Least Developed Countries to the import subsidy scheme. Even in a model with no dynamic gains to trade we find that the switch produces an annual net welfare gain for the 170 countries (
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (53 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bugamelli, Matteo Do Workers' Remittances Reduce The Probability of Current Account Reversals ?
    Keywords: Banking System ; Capital Flows ; Capital Flows ; Capital Inflows ; Consumption ; Country of Origin ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency Crises ; Currency Depreciation ; Current Account ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; External Debt ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Remittances ; Banking System ; Capital Flows ; Capital Flows ; Capital Inflows ; Consumption ; Country of Origin ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency Crises ; Currency Depreciation ; Current Account ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; External Debt ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Remittances ; Banking System ; Capital Flows ; Capital Flows ; Capital Inflows ; Consumption ; Country of Origin ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency Crises ; Currency Depreciation ; Current Account ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; External Debt ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Remittances
    Abstract: The authors combine the literature on financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies with that on international migrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workers' remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals. The rationale for this stands in the great stability and low cyclicality of remittances as compared with other private capital flows: these properties, combined with the fact that remittances are cheap inflows of foreign currencies, might reduce the probability that foreign investors suddenly flee out of emerging markets and developing economies and trigger a dramatic current account adjustment. The authors find that remittances can have such a beneficial effect. In particular, they show that a high level of remittances, as a ratio of GDP, makes the relationship between a decreasing stock of international reserves (over GDP) and a higher probability of current account crises less stringent. The same occurs, though less neatly, for the positive relationship between an increasing stock of external debt (over GDP) and the probability of current account reversals. The results point also to a threshold effect of remittances: the mechanisms just described are, in fact, much stronger when remittances are above 3 percent of GDP
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (37 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Baracat, Elias WTO Safeguards And Trade Liberalization
    Keywords: Appellate Body ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Dispute Settlement ; Dispute Settlement Body ; Dispute Settlement Mechanism ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Import Relief ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Liberalization Of Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Agreements ; Policy Research ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Agreements ; Regional Integration ; Regional Integration Agreements ; Regional Trade ; Safeguard Measures ; Trade ; Trade Barriers ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization ; Appellate Body ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Dispute Settlement ; Dispute Settlement Body ; Dispute Settlement Mechanism ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Import Relief ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Liberalization Of Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Agreements ; Policy Research ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Agreements ; Regional Integration ; Regional Integration Agreements ; Regional Trade ; Safeguard Measures ; Trade ; Trade Barriers ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization ; Appellate Body ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Dispute Settlement ; Dispute Settlement Body ; Dispute Settlement Mechanism ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Import Relief ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Liberalization Of Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Agreements ; Policy Research ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Agreements ; Regional Integration ; Regional Integration Agreements ; Regional Trade ; Safeguard Measures ; Trade ; Trade Barriers ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: The footwear case provides an example of the complexities of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules on the use of safeguards, and of the interaction of multilateral and regional processes of liberalization. As a result both of Argentina's unilateral liberalization and the removal of barriers within Mercosur, imports of footwear increased rapidly. As Mercosur provides no intra-regional safeguard mechanism, the government of Argentina responded by applying import relief and WTO safeguards against third countries. The WTO Dispute Settlement Body addressed these measures and as a consequence, Argentina dismantled most of them, leading to four main conclusions: The jurisprudence of the WTO's Appellate Body has created serious uncertainty as to when a country can use safeguards. This does not contribute to the political balance that has to be maintained when developing countries implement trade liberalization programs. In fact, it detracts from this crucial goal. It is an error to negotiate ambiguous multilateral agreements on the expectation that the WTO Dispute Settlement mechanism will clarify them. An overvalued currency heightened the industry's problems. In the case of footwear, the decline in imports following the recent devaluation was more important than that following the implementation of earlier relief measures. The political economy of liberalization also indicates the need for regional agreements to include adequate transition mechanisms that will facilitate adjustment to free trade and to maintain support for it
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  • 65
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (33 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: de la Plaza, Luis An Analysis of The 2002 Uruguayan Banking Crisis
    Keywords: Bank Policy ; Banking Crisis ; Banking Sector ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Contracts ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Mismatch ; Debt Crises ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Domestic Banking ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Policy ; Banking Crisis ; Banking Sector ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Contracts ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Mismatch ; Debt Crises ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Domestic Banking ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Policy ; Banking Crisis ; Banking Sector ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Contracts ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Mismatch ; Debt Crises ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Domestic Banking ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The authors review the series of events that led to the 2002 Uruguayan banking crisis, assess the current status of the Uruguayan banking sector, and analyze the policy responses undertaken by the Uruguayan authorities to counteract the crisis. The main conclusion from their analysis is that although the immediate trigger for the crisis was caused by contagion resulting from Argentina's financial crisis, the spread and magnification of the crisis that engulfed the Uruguayan economy was amplified by certain weaknesses of the Uruguayan economy in general, and the domestic banking sector in particular. The authors also believe that the policy responses adopted by the Uruguayan authorities were mostly adequate, allowing Uruguay to successfully counteract simultaneous banking and public debt crises. Most important, the Uruguayan authorities were able to overcome a severe crisis while preserving the necessary trust in banking contracts, achieving a high level of social stability and political cohesion, and maintaining a fluid dialogue with multilateral financial institutions and all affected parties. The cooperative and consensual approach taken by the authorities created the necessary conditions to overcome some of the important obstacles to the recovery of the domestic banking sector
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  • 66
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (42 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Freund, Caroline Remittances
    Keywords: Balance of Payments ; Cash Transfers ; Courier Companies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Determinants of Remittances ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Informal Channels ; Informal Flows ; Informal Remittances ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migrants ; Population Policies ; Private Sector Development ; Remittances ; Balance of Payments ; Cash Transfers ; Courier Companies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Determinants of Remittances ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Informal Channels ; Informal Flows ; Informal Remittances ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migrants ; Population Policies ; Private Sector Development ; Remittances ; Balance of Payments ; Cash Transfers ; Courier Companies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Determinants of Remittances ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Informal Channels ; Informal Flows ; Informal Remittances ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migrants ; Population Policies ; Private Sector Development ; Remittances
    Abstract: Recorded workers 'remittances to developing countries have grown rapidly, to more than
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  • 67
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will Economic Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization
    Keywords: Base Year ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reform ; World Trade Organization ; Base Year ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reform ; World Trade Organization ; Base Year ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reform ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: Ianchovichina and Martin present estimates of the impact of accession by China and Chinese Taipei to the World Trade Organization. China is estimated to be the biggest beneficiary, followed by Chinese Taipei and their major trading partners. Accession will boost the labor-intensive manufacturing sectors in China, especially the textiles and apparel sector that will benefit directly from the removal of quotas on textiles and apparel exports to North America and Western Europe. Consequently, developing economies competing with China in third markets may suffer relatively small losses. China has already benefited from the reforms undertaken between 1995 and 2001 (US
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  • 68
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ianchovichina, Elena The Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia
    Keywords: Capital ; Capital Markets ; Comparative Advantage ; Competition ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Development Economics ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exchange Rates ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; World Trade Organization ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Comparative Advantage ; Competition ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Development Economics ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exchange Rates ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; World Trade Organization ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Comparative Advantage ; Competition ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Development Economics ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Exchange Rates ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession will have major implications for China and present both opportunities and challenges for East Asia. Ianchovichina and Walmsley assess the possible channels through which China's accession to the WTO could affect East Asia and quantify these effects using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. China will be the biggest beneficiary of accession, followed by the industrial and newly industrializing economies (NIEs) in East Asia. But their benefits are small relative to the size of their economies and to the vigorous growth projected to occur in the region over the next 10 years. By contrast, developing countries in East Asia are expected to incur small declines in real GDP and welfare as a result of China's accession, mainly because with the elimination of quotas on Chinese textile and apparel exports to industrial countries China will become a formidable competitor in areas in which these countries have comparative advantage. With WTO accession China will increase its demand for petrochemicals, electronics, machinery, and equipment from Japan and the NIEs, and farm, timber, energy products, and other manufactures from the developing countries in East Asia. New foreign investment is likely to flow into these expanding sectors. The overall impact on foreign investment is likely to be positive in the NIEs, but negative for the less developed East Asian countries as a result of the contraction of these economies' textile and apparel sector. As China becomes a more efficient supplier of services or a more efficient producer of high-end manufactures, its comparative advantage will shift into higher-end products. This is good news for the poor developing economies in East Asia, but it implies that the impact of China's WTO accession on the NIEs may change to include heightened competition in global markets. This paper—a product of the Economic Policy Division, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network—is part of a larger effort in the network to assess the impact of China's WTO accession
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (64 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: McNulty, Mary East Asia's Dynamic Development Model and the Republic of Korea's Experiences
    Keywords: Capital ; Competition ; Criteria ; Cultural Policy ; Culture & Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; E-Business ; Economic Development ; Economic Progress ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Thought ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Industry ; Influence ; Inheritance ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Technology Industry ; Capital ; Competition ; Criteria ; Cultural Policy ; Culture & Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; E-Business ; Economic Development ; Economic Progress ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Thought ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Industry ; Influence ; Inheritance ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Technology Industry ; Capital ; Competition ; Criteria ; Cultural Policy ; Culture & Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; E-Business ; Economic Development ; Economic Progress ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Thought ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Industry ; Influence ; Inheritance ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Technology Industry
    Abstract: No region has been more dynamic in recent years than East Asia. Despite its successful economic development, evaluations of the East Asian development model have often been capricious, shifting from "miracle" to "cronyism." How can we explain East Asia's ups and downs consistently? To respond to this challenge, it is necessary to study the progress of East Asian development and to trace the influence of Asian cultural values. This study mainly focuses on cultural aspects of economic progress and analyzes East Asia's philosophical and historical backgrounds to explain the dynamic process. East Asians believe that balance between opposite but complementary forces, Yin and Yang, will ensure social stability and progress. Through repeated rebalancing to maintain harmony, the society comes to maturity. In traditional East Asian societies, a balance was maintained between Confucianism (Yang) and Taoism, Buddhism, and other philosophies (Yin). In modern societies, the challenge is to balance traditional systems (Yang) and Western style capitalism (Yin). This East Asian development model explains the Republic of Korea's rise, fall, and recovery. Korea was a poor country until the early 1960s, during the time when spiritualism (Yang) dominated. From the 1960s through the 1980s, Korea achieved rapid growth by finding a new balance and moving toward materialism (Yin) from spiritualism (Yang). But the failure to maintain a harmonious balance between cooperatism and collectivism (Yang) and individualism (Yin) led to major weaknesses in labor and financial markets that contributed significantly to the financial crisis in 1997. As Korea arrived at a new balance by instituting reform programs, the venture-oriented information and communication technology (ICT) industry blossomed and led to a rapid economic recovery. Since 2000, domestic financial scandals and political corruption have emerged as new social issues. Korea's next challenge is to find a new harmonization between moralism (Yang) and legalism (Yin). This paper—a product of the Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics—is part of a larger effort in the Bank to examine institutional and cultural foundations of development across regions and countries
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  • 70
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schiff, Maurice Trade Policy and Labor Services
    Keywords: Ban ; Benefits ; Choice ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Implications ; Economic Relations ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Taxes ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Ban ; Benefits ; Choice ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Implications ; Economic Relations ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Taxes ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Ban ; Benefits ; Choice ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Implications ; Economic Relations ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Taxes ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration
    Abstract: Schiff considers the policy options of the West Bank and Gaza with respect to trade and the export of labor services. He concludes that: • Nondiscriminatory trade policy is unambiguously superior to a free trade agreement with Israel. • The West Bank and Gaza should pursue a nondiscriminatory trade policy with all its neighbors, but only on the condition that the trade policy be open, transparent, and enforced by a credible lock-in mechanism. Otherwise, a customs union with Israel may be preferable. • The Palestinian Authority should establish a system of fee-based permits for Palestinians working in Israel. • The Palestinian Authority should consider allowing Jordanians access to the West Bank and Gaza labor market. This paper—a product of Trade, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze trade and regional integration policies in the Middle East. The author may be contacted at mschiffworldbank.org
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  • 71
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Pizzati, Lodovico Labor Market Implications of Switching the Currency Peg in a General Equilibrium Model for Lithuania
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Board ; Currency Board Arrangement ; Currency Peg ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Domestic Currency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange-Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; General Equilibrium ; General Equilibrium Model ; Imports ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Board ; Currency Board Arrangement ; Currency Peg ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Domestic Currency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange-Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; General Equilibrium ; General Equilibrium Model ; Imports ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Board ; Currency Board Arrangement ; Currency Peg ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Domestic Currency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange-Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; General Equilibrium ; General Equilibrium Model ; Imports ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: On February 2, 2002, Lithuania switched its currency anchor from the dollar to the euro. While pegging to the dollar (since April 1994) has proven successful throughout the transition years, the recent decision to peg to the euro was motivated by the increasing trade relations with European economies. Pizzati does not argue which peg is more appropriate, but he analyzes the implications of changing the exchange rate regime for different sectors and labor groups. While pegging to the euro entails more stability for the export sector, Lithuania is still dependent on dollar-based imports of primary goods from the Commonwealth of Independent States, more so than other Baltic countries or Central European economies. Pizzati uses a multisector general equilibrium model to compare the effects of dollar-euro exchange rate movements under these alternative pegs. Overall, simulation results suggest that while a euro-peg will provide more stability to GDP and employment, it will also imply more volatility in prices, suggesting that under the new peg macroeconomic policy should be more concerned with inflationary pressures than before. From a sector-specific perspective, pegging to the euro will provide a more stable demand for unskilled-intensive manufacturing and commercial services. But other sectors, such as agriculture, will still face the same vulnerability to exchange rate movements. This suggests that additional policy measures may be needed to compensate sector-specific divergences. This paper—a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to address European Union integration issues in transition economies. Please contact Lodovico Pizzati, room H4-214, telephone 202-473-2259, fax 202-614-0683, email address lpizzatiworldbank.org
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  • 72
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (20 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cuevas, A. Mario Demand for Imports in Venezuela
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Demand ; Domestic Economic Activity ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Endogenous Variables ; Environment ; Exchange Rate Increases ; Exchange Rate Level ; Exogenous Variable ; External Balance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Rate ; Imbalances ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Demand ; Domestic Economic Activity ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Endogenous Variables ; Environment ; Exchange Rate Increases ; Exchange Rate Level ; Exogenous Variable ; External Balance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Rate ; Imbalances ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Demand ; Domestic Economic Activity ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Endogenous Variables ; Environment ; Exchange Rate Increases ; Exchange Rate Level ; Exogenous Variable ; External Balance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Rate ; Imbalances ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974–2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5–year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. This paper—a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevasworldbank.org
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  • 73
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (28 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cuevas, A. Mario Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela
    Keywords: Business Cycles ; Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Econometrics ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Environment ; Exogenous Variables ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Potential ; Growth Rate ; Industry ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Oil and Gas Industry ; Private Sector Development ; Business Cycles ; Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Econometrics ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Environment ; Exogenous Variables ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Potential ; Growth Rate ; Industry ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Oil and Gas Industry ; Private Sector Development ; Business Cycles ; Climate Change ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Econometrics ; Economic Fluctuations ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Environment ; Exogenous Variables ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Growth Potential ; Growth Rate ; Industry ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Oil and Gas Industry ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of the trend component. Cuevas finds that there is a strong association at the trend and cycle frequencies between real GDP and the real price of oil. This association is also robust in the presence of key economic policy variables. From 1970–80, when the underlying annual rate of increase of the real price of oil was 12 percent, the underlying annual rate of increase of potential GDP in Venezuela was 2.6 percent. By contrast, from 1981–2000 when the underlying rate of increase of the real price of oil was –5 percent, the underlying growth rate of potential GDP fell 1.5 percent. However, the strength of association between the underlying growth of oil prices and real GDP has fallen considerably since the early 1980s, suggesting that oil cannot be relied on as an engine for future growth in Venezuela. This paper—a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevasworldbank.org
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  • 74
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (24 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Servén, Luis Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Servén examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country-time series data set. He builds a GARCH-based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative impact on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The impact of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems. This paper—a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to assess the effects of macroeconomic volatility. The author may be contacted at lservenworldbank.org
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  • 75
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ianchovichina, Elena Trade Liberalization in China's Accession to the World Trade Organization
    Keywords: Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: (June 2001) - China's forthcoming access to the World Trade Organization involves reform in many sectors, both domestic and trade-related. The starting point for reform is a partially reformed economy with relatively high import duties, in which export sectors benefit from liberal duty exemptions on inputs. Both China and its major trading partners will gain from access—with China gaining most (perhaps half of the estimated
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Budina, Nina Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Reform, and Inflation Stabilization in Romania
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Deficits ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Defic Exchange ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditure ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Deficits ; Fiscal Policy ; Government Expenditures ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Debt ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Defic Revenues ; Tax ; Transition Economies ; Transition Economy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Deficits ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Defic Exchange ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditure ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Deficits ; Fiscal Policy ; Government Expenditures ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Debt ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Defic Revenues ; Tax ; Transition Economies ; Transition Economy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Deficits ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Defic Exchange ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditure ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Deficits ; Fiscal Policy ; Government Expenditures ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Debt ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Defic Revenues ; Tax ; Transition Economies ; Transition Economy
    Abstract: March 2000 - Fiscal problems are a key factor behind the inflation that has persisted in Eastern Europe since 1989. Deficits need to be cut back, but by how much for a given inflation target? A simple framework links debt, the deficit, and inflation to assess the fiscal stance of the Romanian economy. Unsustainable fiscal deficits were the chief reason for the inflation that has persisted in Eastern Europe since 1989. Deficits need to be cut back, but by how much for a given inflation target? Budina and van Wijnbergen develop a simple framework for debt, the deficit, and inflation to study the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy in Romania's economy. This framework can be used to 1) determine the financeable deficit and the required deficit reduction for a given rate of output growth, inflation rate, and target for debt-output ratios, and 2) to find the inflation rate for which no fiscal adjustment is needed. They use this framework to assess consistency between inflation, monetary reform, and fiscal policy in Romania. Many of the issues in Romania are similar to those in other countries. But Romania is an interesting case because of its history of unsuccessful stabilization attempts. The authors' results suggest that fiscal problems during 1992-94 were masked by shifting government expenses to the books of the National Bank of Romania so that the government deficit did not fully reflect public spending. In addition, the effects of delayed fiscal adjustment were mitigated by exchange rate overvaluation and favorable debt dynamics. In the late 1990s, however, debt dynamics worsened and the economy experienced significant real depreciation. That exacerbated the fiscal problems and increased the fiscal adjustment needed to restore consistency. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study transition economies. The authors may be contacted at nbudinaworldbank.org or svw.heas@wxs.nl
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  • 77
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mehrez, Gil Transparency, Liberalization, and Banking Crises
    Keywords: Bank Lending ; Banking Crises ; Banking Crisis ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Equity ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Fiscal Policy ; Information On Borrowers ; International Investments ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Lack Of Transparency ; Lenders ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oligopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Stock ; Stock Market ; Transparency ; Bank Lending ; Banking Crises ; Banking Crisis ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Equity ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Fiscal Policy ; Information On Borrowers ; International Investments ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Lack Of Transparency ; Lenders ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oligopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Stock ; Stock Market ; Transparency ; Bank Lending ; Banking Crises ; Banking Crisis ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Equity ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Fiscal Policy ; Information On Borrowers ; International Investments ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Lack Of Transparency ; Lenders ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oligopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Stock ; Stock Market ; Transparency
    Abstract: Lack of transparency increases the probability of a banking crisis following financial liberalization. In a country where government policy is not transparent, banks may tend to increase credit above the optimal level. - Mehrez and Kaufmann investigate how transparency affects the probability of a financial crisis. They construct a model in which banks cannot distinguish between aggregate shocks and government policy, on the one hand, and firms' quality, on the other. Banks may therefore overestimate firms' returns and increase credit above the level that would be optimal given the firms' returns. Once banks discover their large exposure, they are likely to roll over loans rather than declare their losses. This delays the crisis but increases its magnitude. The empirical evidence, based on data for 56 countries in 1977-97, supports this theoretical model. The authors find that lack of transparency increases the probability of a crisis following financial liberalization. This implies that countries should focus on increasing transparency of economic activity and government policy, as well as increasing transparency in the financial sector, particularly during a period of transition such as financial liberalization. This paper - a product of Governance, Regulation, and Finance, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to research governance and transparency and apply the findings in learning and operational programs. (For details, visit www.worldbank.org/wbi/gac.) The authors may be contacted at gmehrezworldbank.org or dkaufmann@worldbank.org
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  • 78
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (58 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Klingebiel, Daniela The Use of Asset Management Companies in the Resolution of Banking Crises
    Keywords: Asset Management ; Asset Management Companies ; Bad Debt ; Bank ; Bank Restructuring ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking Distress ; Banking System ; Bankruptcy ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Enterprises ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Governments ; Impaired Assets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Laws ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Systemic Banking Crises ; Asset Management ; Asset Management Companies ; Bad Debt ; Bank ; Bank Restructuring ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking Distress ; Banking System ; Bankruptcy ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Enterprises ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Governments ; Impaired Assets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Laws ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Systemic Banking Crises ; Asset Management ; Asset Management Companies ; Bad Debt ; Bank ; Bank Restructuring ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking Distress ; Banking System ; Bankruptcy ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Enterprises ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Governments ; Impaired Assets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Laws ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Systemic Banking Crises
    Abstract: Asset management companies have been used to address the overhang of bad debt in a country's financial system - by expediting corporate restructuring or rapidly disposing of corporate assets. A study of seven cases suggests that such companies tend to be ineffective at corporate restructuring and are good at disposing of assets only when they're used to meet fairly narrow objectives in the presence of certain factors: an easily liquefiable asset (such as real estate), mostly professional management, political independence, adequate bankruptcy and foreclosure laws, skilled resources, appropriate funding, good information and management systems, and transparent operations and processes. - Asset management companies have been used to address the overhang of bad debt in the financial system. There are two main types of asset management company: those set up to expedite corporate restructuring and those established for rapid disposal of assets. A review of seven asset management companies reveals a mixed record. In two of three cases, asset management companies for corporate restructuring did not achieve their narrow goal of expediting bank or corporate restructuring, suggesting that they are not good vehicles for expediting corporate restructuring. Only a Swedish asset management company successfully managed its portfolio, acting sometimes as lead agent in restructuring - and helped by the fact that the assets acquired had mostly to do with real estate, not manufacturing, which is harder to restructure, and represented a small fraction of the banking system's assets, which made it easier for the company to remain independent of political pressures and to sell assets back to the private sector. Asset management companies used to dispose of assets rapidly fared somewhat better. Two of four agencies (in Spain and the United States) achieved their objectives, suggesting that asset management companies can be used effectively for narrowly defined purposes of resolving insolvent and inviable financial institutions and selling off their assets. Achieving these objectives required an easily liquefiable asset - real estate - mostly professional management, political independence, adequate bankruptcy and foreclosure laws, appropriate funding, skilled resources, good information and management systems, and transparent operations and processes. The other two agencies (in Mexico and the Philippines) were doomed from the start, as governments transferred to them politically motivated loans or fraudulent assets, which were difficult for a government agency susceptible to political pressure and lacking independence to resolve or sell off. This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the management of banking crises. The author may be contacted at dklingebielworldbank.org
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  • 79
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Honohan, Patrick Controlling the Fiscal Costs of Banking Crises
    Keywords: Bank ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking System ; Banking Systems ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Guarantees ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Gambling ; Governments ; Inflation ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Real Sector ; Regulatory Forbearance ; Strategies ; Systemic Banking Crises ; Taxation ; Bank ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking System ; Banking Systems ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Guarantees ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Gambling ; Governments ; Inflation ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Real Sector ; Regulatory Forbearance ; Strategies ; Systemic Banking Crises ; Taxation ; Bank ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking System ; Banking Systems ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Guarantees ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Gambling ; Governments ; Inflation ; Liquidation ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Real Sector ; Regulatory Forbearance ; Strategies ; Systemic Banking Crises ; Taxation
    Abstract: September 2000 - Certain measures add greatly to the fiscal cost of banking crises: unlimited deposit guarantees, open-ended liquidity support, repeated recapitalization, debtor bail-outs, and regulatory forbearance. The findings in this paper tilt the balance in favor of a strict rather than an accommodating approach to crisis resolution. In recent decades, a majority of countries have experienced a systemic banking crisis requiring a major-and expensive-overhaul of their banking system. Not only do banking crises hit the budget with outlays that must be absorbed by higher taxes (or spending cuts), but they are costly in terms of forgone economic output. Many different policy recommendations have been made for limiting the cost of crises, but there has been little systematic effort to see which recommendations work in practice. Honohan and Klingebiel try to quantify the extent to which fiscal outlays incurred in resolving banking distress can be attributed to crisis management measures of a particular kind adopted by the government in the early years of the crisis. They find evidence that certain crisis management strategies appear to add greatly to fiscal costs: unlimited deposit guarantees, open-ended liquidity support, repeated recapitalization, debtor bail-outs, and regulatory forbearance. Their findings clearly tilt the balance in favor of a strict rather than an accommodating approach to crisis resolution. At the very least, regulatory authorities who choose an accommodating or gradualist approach to an emerging crisis must be sure they have some other way to control risk-taking. This paper-a product of Finance, Development Research Group, and Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department-is part of a larger effort in the Bank to examine the effects of financial sector regulation. The authors may be contacted at phonohanworldbank.org or dklingebiel@worldbank.org
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman External Sustainability
    Keywords: Assets ; Capital Controls ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Imbalances ; Current Account Surplus ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Investors ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Condition ; External Deficits ; External Position ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Foreign Asset ; Foreign Asset Positions ; Imbalances ; Investment Opportunities ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Long-Run Equilibrium ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Risk ; Risks ; Assets ; Capital Controls ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Imbalances ; Current Account Surplus ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Investors ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Condition ; External Deficits ; External Position ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Foreign Asset ; Foreign Asset Positions ; Imbalances ; Investment Opportunities ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Long-Run Equilibrium ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Risk ; Risks ; Assets ; Capital Controls ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Imbalances ; Current Account Surplus ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Investors ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Condition ; External Deficits ; External Position ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Foreign Asset ; Foreign Asset Positions ; Imbalances ; Investment Opportunities ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Long-Run Equilibrium ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Risk ; Risks
    Abstract: The 1994 crisis in Mexico, developments in East Asia, and persistent turmoil in world financial markets have dramatized the role of external imbalances in macroeconomic crises. Some believe that the current account should be kept from rising beyond a sustainable level, some that a current account surplus is the only solid external position. Can those rules of thumb be justified analytically? - Calderón, Loayza, and Servén consider external sustainability from the perspective of equilibrium in net foreign asset positions. Under their approach, an external situation is sustainable if it is consistent with international and domestic investors' achieving their desired portfolio allocation across countries. They develop a reduced-form model of net foreign asset positions whose long-run equilibrium condition expresses the ratio of net foreign assets to the total wealth of domestic residents as a negative function of investment returns in the country relative to the rest of the world, a positive function of investment risk, and an inverse function of the ratio of foreign-owned to domestically owned wealth. To estimate this equilibrium condition, the authors use a newly constructed data set of foreign asset and liability stocks for a large group of industrial and developing countries, from the 1960s to the present. They also develop summary measures of country returns and risks. Their econometric methodology is an application of the Pooled Mean Group estimator recently developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999), which allows for unrestricted cross-country heterogeneity in short-term dynamics while imposing a common long-run specification. The estimation results lend considerable support to the model, especially when applied to countries with low capital controls or high or upper-middle income. The results for countries with high capital controls and, especially, lower-income countries are less supportive of the stock equilibrium model. As a byproduct of the model's estimation, the authors obtain estimates of the long-run equilibrium ratios of net foreign assets to wealth, conditional on the observed values of the country's relative returns, risks, and wealth. Then, for a selected group of industrial and developing countries, they evaluate the extent to which actual ratios diverge from their long-run counterparts - and hence the sustainability of current net foreign asset positions. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort to assess the sustainability of the external accounts of the major countries in the region. The authors may be contacted at nloayzacondor.bcentral.cl or lserven@worldbank.org
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  • 81
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (28 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ferri, Giovanni The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions
    Keywords: Balance Sheet ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Distress ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Risks ; Good ; Interest ; Interest Income ; Investors ; Loan ; Loans ; Loss Of Confidence ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Political Economy ; Portfolio ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulations ; Public Institution Analysis and Assessment ; Public Sector Development ; Reserves ; Return ; Return On Assets ; Balance Sheet ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Distress ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Risks ; Good ; Interest ; Interest Income ; Investors ; Loan ; Loans ; Loss Of Confidence ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Political Economy ; Portfolio ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulations ; Public Institution Analysis and Assessment ; Public Sector Development ; Reserves ; Return ; Return On Assets ; Balance Sheet ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Distress ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Risks ; Good ; Interest ; Interest Income ; Investors ; Loan ; Loans ; Loss Of Confidence ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Political Economy ; Portfolio ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulations ; Public Institution Analysis and Assessment ; Public Sector Development ; Reserves ; Return ; Return On Assets
    Abstract: In the East Asian crisis, connections - with industrial groups or influential families - increased the probability of distress for financial institutions. Connections also made closure more, not less, likely, suggesting that the closure processes themselves were transparent. But larger institutions, although more likely to be distressed, were less likely to be closed, suggesting a too big to fail policy. - Politics and regulatory capture can play an important role in financial institutions' distress. East Asia's financial crisis featured many distressed and closed financial intermediaries in an environment with many links between government, politicians, supervisors, and financial institutions. This makes the East Asian financial crisis a good event for studying how such connections affect the resolution of financial institutions' distress. Bongini, Claessens, and Ferri investigate distress and closure decisions for 186 banks and 97 nonbank financial institutions in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. They find that after July 1997, 42 percent of the institutions experienced distress (were closed, merged, or recapitalized, or had their operations temporarily suspended). By July 1999, 13 percent of all institutions in existence in July 1997 had been closed. Using financial data for 1996, the authors find that: · Traditional CAMEL-type variables - returns on assets, loan growth, and the ratio of loan loss reserves to capital, of net interest income to total income, and of loans to borrowings - help predict subsequent distress and closure. · None of the foreign-controlled institutions was closed, and foreign portfolio ownership lowered an institution's probability of distress. · Connections - with industrial groups or influential families - increased the probability of distress, suggesting that supervisors had granted forbearance from regulations. Connections also made closure more, not less, likely - suggesting that the closure processes themselves were transparent. · But larger institutions, although more likely to be distressed, were less likely to be closed, while (smaller) nonbank financial institutions were more likely to be closed. This suggests a too big to fail policy. · These policies, together with the fact that resolution processes were late and not necessarily comprehensive, may have added to the overall uncertainty and loss of confidence in the East Asian countries, aggravating the financial crisis. This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Group, Financial Sector Vice Presidency - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the causes and resolution of financial distress. The authors may be contacted at pbonginimi.unicatt.it, cclaessens@worldbank.org, or gferri@worldbank.org
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schmukler, Sergio Global Transmission of Interest Rates
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Regime ; Currency Regimes ; Currency Risks ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rates ; Independent Monetary Policy ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; International Monetary Economics ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Independence ; Monetary Policy ; Nominal Anchor ; Private Sector Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Regime ; Currency Regimes ; Currency Risks ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rates ; Independent Monetary Policy ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; International Monetary Economics ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Independence ; Monetary Policy ; Nominal Anchor ; Private Sector Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Regime ; Currency Regimes ; Currency Risks ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rates ; Independent Monetary Policy ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; International Monetary Economics ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Independence ; Monetary Policy ; Nominal Anchor ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: August 2000 - Hikes in U.S. interest rates in 1999-2000 have started to spill over to other economies' interest rates, which in many countries have risen to reflect the higher U.S. rates. Are countries with flexible exchange rates better able to isolate their domestic interest rates from this type of negative international shock? Less and less so, as economies become more integrated. Frankel, Schmukler, and Servén empirically study the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates and how that sensitivity is affected by a country's choice of exchange rate regime. To establish the empirical regularities, they use a reduced-form empirical approach to compute both panel and single-country estimates of interest rate sensitivity for a large sample of developing and industrial economies between 1970 and 1999. When using the full sample, they find that: · Interest rates are typically lower in economies with fixed exchange rates than in those with flexible exchange rates. · More rigid currency regimes tend to exhibit higher transmission than more flexible regimes. In many cases in the 1990s, however, the authors cannot reject full transmission (a slope coefficient equal to 1), even for several countries with floating regimes. The data suggest an upward time trend in the degree to which domestic interest rates are sensitive to international capital movements and developing economies' increased financial integration with the rest of the world. As a result, country-specific estimates for the 1990s reveal few cases of less-than-full transmission of international interest rates to domestic rates, regardless of the currency regime. Country-specific results suggest that only large industrial countries can (or choose to) benefit from independent monetary policy. During the 1990s, interest rates in European countries were fully sensitive to German interest rates but insensitive to U.S. interest rates. This paper-a joint product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group, and the Chief Economist Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the Bank to understand the functioning of alternative currency arrangements. The authors may be contacted at jeffrey_frankelharvard.edu, sschmukler@worldbank.org, or lserven@worldbank.org
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  • 83
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (52 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies during Speculative Attacks?
    Keywords: Balance Of Payments ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Fixed Nominal Exchange Rates ; Foreign Exchange ; Growth Rates ; Interest Rate Differentials ; Interest Rates ; International Capital Flows ; International Monetary Fund ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Authorities ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Economics ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Shocks ; Nominal Exchange Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Tight Monetary Policy ; Balance Of Payments ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Fixed Nominal Exchange Rates ; Foreign Exchange ; Growth Rates ; Interest Rate Differentials ; Interest Rates ; International Capital Flows ; International Monetary Fund ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Authorities ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Economics ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Shocks ; Nominal Exchange Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Tight Monetary Policy ; Balance Of Payments ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Fixed Nominal Exchange Rates ; Foreign Exchange ; Growth Rates ; Interest Rate Differentials ; Interest Rates ; International Capital Flows ; International Monetary Fund ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Authorities ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Economics ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Shocks ; Nominal Exchange Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Tight Monetary Policy
    Abstract: January 2000 - No - there is no systematic association between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. Drawing on evidence from a large sample of speculative attacks in industrial and developing countries, Kraay argues that high interest rates do not defend currencies against speculative attacks. In fact, there is a striking lack of any systematic association between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. The lack of clear empirical evidence on the effects of high interest rates during speculative attacks mirrors the theoretical ambiguities on this issue. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the causes and consequences of financial crises. The author may be contacted at akraayworldbank.org
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  • 84
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Panagariya, Arvind Evaluating the Case for Export Subsidies
    Keywords: Adverse Selection ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Competitiveness ; Cred Export ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Performance ; Export Subsidies ; Export Subsidy ; Exports ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Trade ; Free Trade ; Interest ; Interests ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Moral Hazard ; Perfect Competition ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rent ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes ; Trade Policy ; Adverse Selection ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Competitiveness ; Cred Export ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Performance ; Export Subsidies ; Export Subsidy ; Exports ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Trade ; Free Trade ; Interest ; Interests ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Moral Hazard ; Perfect Competition ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rent ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes ; Trade Policy ; Adverse Selection ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Competitiveness ; Cred Export ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Performance ; Export Subsidies ; Export Subsidy ; Exports ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Trade ; Free Trade ; Interest ; Interests ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Moral Hazard ; Perfect Competition ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rent ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: January 2000 - With import-substitution policies discredited, many have argued for interventions on behalf of export interests. But aren't arguments for export subsidies as flawed as arguments for import substitution? Now that import-substitution policies have failed and been discredited, there has been a shift in favor of interventions on behalf of export interests. Panagariya argues that close scrutiny reveals these arguments to be as flawed as the old arguments for import substitution. Among other things, Panagariya concludes that: · Under perfect competition, a country trying to retaliate against a trading partner's export subsidies by instituting its own export subsidies will only hurt itself. · The argument that export subsidies may be useful for neutralizing import tariffs is spurious. In most practical situations, this is not possible. Removal of tariffs is a far superior policy. · In principle a case can be made for protecting infant export industries in the presence of externalities. But the empirical relevance of externalities remains as illusory for export industries as it was for import-substituting industries. · Adverse selection and moral hazard can lead to the thinning of the market for credit insurance but that is not a case for government intervention. · India's experience shows export subsidies to have little impact on exports. Brazil and Mexico's experience shows export subsidies to be a costly instrument of export diversification. · Those who argue that pro-export interventions were important in East Asia have not provided convincing evidence of a causal relationship between the interventions and growth. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to explore conceptual and practical issues in the export policies of developing countries. The author may be contacted at panagariecon.umd.edu
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  • 85
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Levine, Ross Africa's Growth Tragedy
    Keywords: Black Market ; Business Cycle ; Country Regressions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Educational Attainment ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Sector ; Financial Systems ; Growth ; Growth Performance ; Growth Rate ; Growth Rates ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Long-Run Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nutrition ; Per Capita Income ; Policy Change ; Policy Research ; Political Instability ; Political Stability ; Poor Countries ; Poor Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Black Market ; Business Cycle ; Country Regressions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Educational Attainment ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Sector ; Financial Systems ; Growth ; Growth Performance ; Growth Rate ; Growth Rates ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Long-Run Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nutrition ; Per Capita Income ; Policy Change ; Policy Research ; Political Instability ; Political Stability ; Poor Countries ; Poor Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth
    Abstract: August 1995 - Problems associated with Sub-Saharan Africa's slow growth are low school attainment, political instability, poorly developed financial systems, large black-market exchange-rate premia, large government deficits, and inadequate infrastructure. Improving policies alone boosts growth substantially. But if neighboring countries adopt a policy change together, the effects on growth are more than double what they would have been if one country had acted alone. Africa's economic history since 1960 fits the classical definition of tragedy: potential unfulfilled, with disastrous consequences. Easterly and Levine use one methodology - cross-country regressions - to account for Sub-Saharan Africa's growth performance over the past 30 years and to suggest policies to promote growth over the next 30 years. They statistically quantify the relationship between long-run growth and a wider array of factors than any previous study. They consider such standard variables as initial income to capture convergence effects, schooling, political stability, and indicators of monetary, fiscal, trade, exchange rate, and financial sector policies. They also consider such new measures as infrastructure development, cultural diversity, and economic spillovers from neighbors' growth. Their analysis: ° Improves substantially on past attempts to account for the growth experience of Sub-Saharan African countries. ° Shows that low school attainment, political instability, poorly developed financial systems, large black-market exchange-rate premia, large government deficits, and inadequate infrastructure are associated with slow growth. ° Finds that Africa's ethnic diversity tends to slow growth and reduce the likelihood of adopting good policies. ° Identifies spillovers of growth performance between neighboring countries. The spillover effects of growth have implications for policy strategy. Improving policies alone boosts growth substantially, but if neighboring countries act together, the effects on growth are much greater. Specifically, the results suggest that the effect of neighbors' adopting a policy change is 2.2 times greater than if a single country acted alone. This paper - a joint product of the Macroeconomics and Growth Division and the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to understand the link between policies and growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Patterns of Growth (RPO 678-26)
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  • 86
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (80 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Finger, Michael J Market Access Advances and Retreats
    Keywords: Agricultural Products ; Agricultural Trade ; Antidumping ; Antidumping Cases ; Border Protection ; Concessions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Industrial Products ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Quantitative Restrictions ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Rules of Origin ; Tariff ; Tariff Concessions ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariffs ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Restrictions ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Agricultural Products ; Agricultural Trade ; Antidumping ; Antidumping Cases ; Border Protection ; Concessions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Industrial Products ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Quantitative Restrictions ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Rules of Origin ; Tariff ; Tariff Concessions ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariffs ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Restrictions ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: Uruguay Round negotiations on market access were a success. Tariff cuts covered a larger share of world trade than those of the Kennedy or Tokyo Rounds and will save importers some
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  • 87
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (29 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schiff, Maurice Will the Real Natural Trading Partner Please Stand Up?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Unions ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Agreements ; Free Trade Areas ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Perfect Competition ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreement ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regional Trade ; Tariff ; Tariff Revenues ; Trade ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Transport Costs ; Volume Of Trade ; World Trade ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Unions ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Agreements ; Free Trade Areas ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Perfect Competition ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreement ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regional Trade ; Tariff ; Tariff Revenues ; Trade ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Transport Costs ; Volume Of Trade ; World Trade
    Abstract: August 1999 - Adherents of the natural trading partner hypothesis argue that preferential trade agreements are more likely to improve welfare if participating countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents argue the opposite. Neither side is right. The hypothesis holds up only if two countries are natural trading partners in the sense that one country tends to import what the other exports. Adherents of the natural trading partner hypothesis argue that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are more likely to improve welfare if participating countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents of the hypothesis claim that the opposite is true: welfare gains are likely to be greater if participating countries trade less with each other. Schiff shows that neither analysis is correct. The natural trading partner hypothesis can be rescued if it is redefined in terms of complementarity or substitutability in the trade relations of countries, rather than in terms of their volume of trade. Schiff asks not whether a country should form or join a trading bloc but which partner or partners it should select if it does join such a bloc. He shows that the pre-PTA volume of trade is not a useful criterion for selecting a partner. The pre-PTA volume is equal to zero if the partner is an importer of the good sold to the home country and it is indeterminate if the partner is an exporter of that good. Among Schiff's conclusions: ° The home country is better off with a large partner country. First, a large partner is more likely to satisfy the home country's import demand at the world price. Second, the home country is likely to gain more on its exports to a large partner country, because that partner is likely to continue importing from the world market after formation of the trading bloc. And since the partner charges a tariff on imports from the world market, the home country is more likely to improve its terms of trade by selling to the partner at the higher tariff-inclusive price if the partner is large. ° The PTA as a whole is likely to be better off if each country imports what the other exports (rather than each country importing what the other imports). Losses are similar but less likely, while gains are both more likely and the same or larger. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the economics of regional integration. The author may be contacted at mschiffworldbank.org
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  • 88
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Easterly, William Inflation and the Poor
    Keywords: Access to Markets ; Bank ; Bonds ; Checks ; Cred Education ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Instruments ; Financial Literacy ; Health Indicators ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; ICT Applications ; ICT for Health ; Income ; Incomes ; Inflation ; Inflation ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Minimum Wage ; Money ; Pensions ; Poverty Rate ; Poverty Rates ; Probabilities ; Research Assistance ; Stocks ; Subsidies ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Access to Markets ; Bank ; Bonds ; Checks ; Cred Education ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Instruments ; Financial Literacy ; Health Indicators ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; ICT Applications ; ICT for Health ; Income ; Incomes ; Inflation ; Inflation ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Minimum Wage ; Money ; Pensions ; Poverty Rate ; Poverty Rates ; Probabilities ; Research Assistance ; Stocks ; Subsidies ; Unemployment ; Wages
    Abstract: May 2000 - The poor suffer more from inflation than the rich do, reveals this survey of poor people in 38 countries. Using polling data for 31,869 households in 38 countries and allowing for country effects, Easterly and Fischer show that the poor are more likely than the rich to mention inflation as a top national concern. This result survives several robustness checks. Also, direct measures of improvements in well-being for the poor - the change in their share of national income, the percentage decline in poverty, and the percentage change in the real minimum wage - are negatively correlated with inflation in pooled cross-country samples. High inflation tends to lower the share of the bottom quintile and the real minimum wage - and tends to increase poverty. This paper - a joint product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group, and the International Monetary Fund - is part of a larger effort to study the effects of macroeconomic policies on growth and poverty
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  • 89
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Dailami, Mansoor Financial Openness, Democracy, and Redistributive Policy
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Bonds ; Capital Flows ; Capital Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Openness ; Free Capital ; Future ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Government Policies ; Information Technologies ; Insurance ; International Capital ; International Capital Mobility ; International Financial Markets ; International Financial System ; International Lending ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Integration ; Moral Hazard ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Bonds ; Capital Flows ; Capital Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Openness ; Free Capital ; Future ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Government Policies ; Information Technologies ; Insurance ; International Capital ; International Capital Mobility ; International Financial Markets ; International Financial System ; International Lending ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Integration ; Moral Hazard ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: June 2000 - What explains the spread of both democracy and financial openness at this time in history, given the constraining impact of financial market integration on national policy autonomy? International policy coordination is part of the answer, but not all. Also important is the presence of cost-effective redistributive schemes that provide insurance against the risk of financial instability. The debate about the relationship between democratic forms of government and the free movement of capital across borders dates to the 18th century. It has regained prominence as capital on a massive scale has become increasingly mobile and as free economies experience continuous pressure from rapidly changing technology, market integration, changing consumer preferences, and intensified competition. These changes imply greater uncertainty about citizens' future income positions, which could prompt them to seek insurance through the marketplace or through constitutionally arranged income redistribution. As more countries move toward democracy, the availability of such insurance mechanisms to citizens is key if political pressure for capital controls is to be averted and if public support for an open, liberal international financial order is to be maintained. Dailami briefly reviews how today's international financial system evolved from one of mostly closed capital accounts immediately after World War II to today's enormous, largely free-flowing market. Drawing on insights from the literature on public choice and constitutional political economy, Dailami develops an analytical framework for a welfare cost-benefit analysis of financial openness to international capital flows. The main welfare benefits of financial openness derive from greater economic efficiency and increased opportunities for risk diversification. The welfare costs relate to the cost of insurance used as a mechanism for coping with the risks of financial volatility. These insurance costs are the economic losses associated with redistribution, including moral hazard, rent-seeking, and rent-avoidance. A cross-sectional analysis of a large sample of developed and developing countries shows the positive correlation between democracy (as defined by political and civil liberty) and financial openness. More rigorous econometric investigation using logit analysis and controlling for level of income also shows that redistributive social policies are key in determining the likelihood that countries can successfully combine an openness to international capital mobility with democratic forms of government. This paper - a product of Governance, Regulation, and Finance, World Bank Institute- is part of a broader research effort on The Quality of Growth. The author may be contacted at mdailamiworldbank.org
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  • 90
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will The Effect of the United States' Granting Most Favored Nation Status to Vietnam
    Keywords: Agribusiness and Markets ; Agricultural Commodities ; Apparel ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; Exporters ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Free Trade ; General Equilibrium Model ; High Tariffs ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Metal Products ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Tariff ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Agribusiness and Markets ; Agricultural Commodities ; Apparel ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; Exporters ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Free Trade ; General Equilibrium Model ; High Tariffs ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Metal Products ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Tariff ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: November 1999 - If the United States grants Vietnam most favored nation status, both countries would benefit. Vietnamese exports to the United States would more than double, and Vietnam would gain substantial welfare benefits from improved market access and increased availability of imports. For the United States, lowering the current high tariffs against Vietnam would improve welfare by reducing costly diversion away from Vietnamese products. Since the U.S. embargo on trade with Vietnam was lifted in 1994, exports from Vietnam to the United States have risen dramatically. However, Vietnam remains one of the few countries to which the United States has not yet granted most favored nation (MFN) status. The general tariff rates that the United States imposes average 35 percent compared with 4.9 percent for the MFN rate. Granting MFN status to Vietnam would improve its terms of trade and help improve the efficiency of resource allocation in the country. Better access to the U.S. market would increase the volume of Vietnamese exports to the United States and the prices received for them while also reducing their costs to U.S. users. Fukase and Martin use a computable general equilibrium model to examine the effects of reducing U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese imports from general rates to MFN rates. They estimate tariff changes using the U.S. tariff schedule for 1997 weighted by Vietnam's exports to the United States. The results suggest that after a change to MFN status for Vietnam, its exports to the United States would more than double, from the 1996 baseline of
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  • 91
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Klein, Michael Money, Politics, and a Future for the International Financial System
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; International Financial System ; Lending ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Discipline ; Moral Hazard ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulation ; Regulatory Framework ; Regulatory Oversight ; Safety Nets ; Settlement ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; International Financial System ; Lending ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Discipline ; Moral Hazard ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulation ; Regulatory Framework ; Regulatory Oversight ; Safety Nets ; Settlement
    Abstract: November 1999 - Three approaches to regulatory frameworks for financial systems - and a scenario for development of the world financial system that assumes a market solution. In developing the architecture for a financial system, the challenge is to combine deregulation and safety nets against systemic failure with effective prudential regulation and oversight. Klein analyzes three approaches to choosing an adequate regulatory framework for a financial system. · Those most worried about panic and herd behavior tend to favor relatively extensive controls on financial institutions' activities, including controls on interest rates and on the volume and direction of lending. · Those most concerned about moral hazard advocate abolishing controls and safety nets, seeing the solution in stronger market discipline and reduced powers and discretion for regulators. · Mainstream opinion advocates a mix of measures, to both strengthen market discipline and improve regulatory oversight. The approach a country opts for depends on (1) which monetary and exchange rate regime it chooses, (2) whether it is more concerned about moral hazard or about panic and herd behavior, and (3) how the politics of reform shape its solutions. Klein suggests a scenario for development of the global financial system over the next two or three decades that assumes that the final outcome will resemble the market solution - not because that is the optimal policy choice but because of how political weaknesses will interact with advances in settlement technology. In Klein's scenario, the world moves toward a monetary system in which fixed exchange rate systems or de facto currency competition limit the power of central banks. This limits options for discretionary and open-ended liquidity support to help deal with systemic financial crises. The costs of inflexible exchange rates are moderated by new types of wage contracts, using units of account that are correlated with the shocks a particular industry or kind of contract faces - thus maintaining the positive aspects of monetary systems with flexible nominal exchange rates. Mistrust in monetary authorities and the emergence of private settlement systems lead to a return of asset-backed money as the means of payment. The disciplines on financial systems come to resemble somewhat those of historical free banking systems, with financial institutions requiring high levels of equity and payments systems protected only by limited, fully funded safety nets. This paper - a product of Private Participation in Infrastructure, Private Sector Development Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to understand regulatory issues. The author may be contacted at michael.u.kleinsi.shell.com
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  • 92
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (22 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Gatti, Roberta Corruption and Trade Tariffs, or a Case for Uniform Tariffs
    Keywords: Accounting ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Administration and Reform ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Future ; Good ; Goods ; Government Revenue ; Government Revenues ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Prices ; Open Economy ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Returns ; Revenue ; Share ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxes ; Trade Policy ; Transparency ; Accounting ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Administration and Reform ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Future ; Good ; Goods ; Government Revenue ; Government Revenues ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Prices ; Open Economy ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Returns ; Revenue ; Share ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxes ; Trade Policy ; Transparency
    Abstract: November 1999 - A highly diversified trade tariff menu may fuel bribe-taking behavior. Setting trade tariff rates at a uniform level limits public officials' ability to extract bribes from importers. By explicitly accounting for the interaction between importers and corrupt customs officials, Gatti argues that setting trade tariff rates at a uniform level limits public officials' ability to extract bribes from importers. If the government's main objective is to raise revenues at the minimum cost to welfare, optimally-set tariff rates will be inversely proportional to the elasticity of demand for imports. So they will generally differ across goods. Such a menu of tariff rates endows customs officials with the opportunity to extract rent from importers. If officials have enough discretionary power, they might threaten to misclassify goods into more heavily taxed categories unless importers pay them a bribe. Because of the bribe, the effective tariff rate for the importing firm increases, so demand for the good decreases. The resulting drop in import demand implies an efficiency loss as well as lower government revenues, compared with the optimal taxation benchmark without corruption. A similar argument applies when customs officials offer to classify goods into low-tariff categories in exchange for a bribe. Setting trade tariffs at a uniform level eliminates officials' opportunities to extract rents. Thus, when corruption is pervasive, a uniform tariff can deliver more government revenues and welfare than the optimally set (Ramsey) tariff benchmark. The empirical evidence confirms that these considerations are relevant to policymaking, since a robust association between the standard deviation of trade tariffs - a measure of the diversification of tariff menus - and corruption emerges across countries. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study corruption. Please contact Roberta Gatti, Internet address rgattiworldbank.org
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (70 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area
    Keywords: Access ; Capital Goods ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Industries ; Domestic Production ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Factor Endowments ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Import Competition ; Intermediate Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Openness ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tariff ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regime ; Unilateral Liberalization ; Access ; Capital Goods ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Industries ; Domestic Production ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Factor Endowments ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Import Competition ; Intermediate Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Openness ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tariff ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regime ; Unilateral Liberalization
    Abstract: November 1999 - The static economic benefits of Vietnam's accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) are likely to be relatively small. The gains from increased access to ASEAN markets would be small, and they would be offset by the costs of trade diversion on the import side. But binding commitments on protection rates under the AFTA plan could provide an important stepping stone to more beneficial broader liberalization. Vietnam's accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) has been an important step in its integration into the world economy. Fukase and Martin use a multiregion, multisector computable general equilibrium model to evaluate how different trade liberalization policies of Vietnam and its main trading partners affect Vietnam's welfare, taking into account the simultaneous impacts on trade, output, and industrial structure. They conclude that: · The static economywide effects of the AFTA liberalization to which Vietnam is currently committed are small. On the import side, the exclusion of a series of products from the AFTA commitments appears to limit the scope of trade creation, and the discriminatory nature of AFTA liberalization would divert Vietnam's trade from non-ASEAN members. · Vietnam's small initial exports to ASEAN make the gains from improved access to partner markets relatively modest. Since Singapore dominates Vietnam's ASEAN exports and initial protection in Singapore is close to zero, there are few gains from preferred status in this market. · When Vietnam extends its AFTA commitments to all of its trading partners on a most favored nation basis, its welfare increases substantially - partly because of the greater extent of liberalization, partly because the broader liberalization undoes the costly trade diversion created by the initial discriminatory liberalization, and finally because of the more efficient allocation of resources among Vietnam's industries. · AFTA, APEC, and unilateral liberalizations affect Vietnam's industries in different ways. AFTA appears to benefit Vietnam's agriculture by improving its access to the ASEAN market. · Broad unilateral liberalization beyond AFTA is likely to shift labor away from agriculture and certain import-competing activities toward relatively labor-intensive manufacturing. Reduced costs for intermediate inputs will benefit domestic production. These sectors conform to Vietnam's current comparative advantage, and undertaking broad unilateral liberalization now seems a promising way to facilitate the subsequent development of competitive firms in more capital- and skill-intensive sectors. By contrast, more intense import competition may lead some import substitution industries (now dependent on protection) to contract. · The higher level of welfare resulting from more comprehensive liberalization implies that the sectoral protection currently given to capital-intensive and strategic industries is imposing substantial implicit taxes on the rest of the economy. · All the above suggests that AFTA should be treated as an important initial step toward broader liberalization. Binding international commitments in AFTA and, in due course, at the World Trade Organization can provide a credible signal of Vietnam's commitment to open trade policies that will help stimulate the upgrading of existing firms and investment in efficient and dynamic firms. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - was prepared as part of the AFTA Expansion Project in collaboration with the East Asia and Pacific Region. The authors may be contacted at efukaseworldbank.org or wmartin1@worldbank.org
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Soloaga, Isidro What's Behind Mercosur's Common External Tariff?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Tariff ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Prices ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Multilateral System ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Share Of World Exports ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Structures ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Effects ; Trade Externalities ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Prices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Tariff ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Prices ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Multilateral System ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Share Of World Exports ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Structures ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Effects ; Trade Externalities ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Prices
    Abstract: Most researchers focus on the political economy (interest group pressures) approach to analyzing why customs unions are formed, but terms-of-trade effects were also important in formation of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (Mercosur). Terms-of-trade externalities among Mercosur's members have been internalized in the common external tariff. - The theoretical literature on trade follows two different approaches to explaining the endogenous formation of customs unions: (1) The terms-of-trade approach, in which integrating partners are willing to exploit terms-of-trade effects. Using the terms-of-trade approach, one concludes that tariffs on imports from the rest of the world should increase after the formation of a regional bloc, because the market power of the region increases and terms-of-trade externalities can be internalized in the custom union's common external tariff. As the union forms, the domestic market gets larger and members' international market power increases. (2) The interest group pressures (political economy) approach, in which, for example, the customs union may offer the potential for exchanging markets or protection within the enlarged market. Using this approach, one would usually conclude that tariffs for the rest of the world decline after the custom union's formation - a rationale related to free-rider effects in larger lobbying groups. It is important to recognize the forces behind the formation of customs unions. Most researchers have focused on the second approach and neglected terms of trade as a possible explanatory variable. Both rationales explain a significant share of tariff information. Results, write Olarreaga, Soloaga, and Winters, suggest that both forces were important in formation of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (Mercosur). Terms-of-trade effects account for between 6 percent and 28 percent of the explained variation in the structure of protection. There is also evidence that the terms-of-trade externalities among Mercosur's members have been internalized in the common external tariff. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the political economy of trade protection. Marcelo Olarreaga may be contacted at molarreagaworldbank.org
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  • 95
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Pizzati, Lodovico Disinflation and the Supply Side
    Keywords: Aggregate Demand ; Assets ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Elasticity Of Substitution ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Interest ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Recession ; Stock ; Supply ; Wages ; Wealth ; Aggregate Demand ; Assets ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Elasticity Of Substitution ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Interest ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Recession ; Stock ; Supply ; Wages ; Wealth
    Abstract: March 2000 - What role do supply-side factors play in the dynamics of output and absorption in exchange rate-based stabilization programs? Agénor and Pizzati study the dynamics of output, consumption, and real wages induced by a disinflation program based on permanent and temporary reductions in the nominal devaluation rate. They use an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy in which domestic households face imperfect world capital markets, the labor supply is endogenous, and wages are flexible. The model predicts that, with a constant capital stock and no investment, there is an initial reduction in real wages and output expands. Consumption falls on impact but increases afterward. In addition, with a temporary shock, a current account deficit emerges and, later, a recession sets in, as documented in various studies. With endogenous capital accumulation, numerical simulations show that the model can also predict a boom in investment. This paper is a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute. The authors may be contacted at pagenorworldbank.org and lpizzati@worldbank.org
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  • 96
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Beckerman, Paul How Small Should an Economy's Fiscal Deficit Be?
    Keywords: Bank Assets ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial System ; Fiscal Defic Future ; Government Borrowing ; Government Defic Inflation ; Instruments ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Levy ; Liabilities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Reserve ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Stocks ; Bank Assets ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial System ; Fiscal Defic Future ; Government Borrowing ; Government Defic Inflation ; Instruments ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Levy ; Liabilities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Reserve ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Stocks
    Abstract: March 2000 - A spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a specified vector of country macroeconomic objectives. Beckerman describes a spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a policymaker's vector of principal macroeconomic objectives (including real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate, and international reserve accumulation). The model focuses on the monetary accounts, applying balance-of-payments forecasts formulated separately but based on the same macroeconomic objectives. The model is a consistency exercise, intended as part of a broader consistency exercise for a given macroeconomy. It offers one more perspective on the question of how large a government deficit should be - a perspective that can be used in conjunction with others. For each forecast period, the model determines consistent period-end and period-average stocks for the economy's outstanding central bank assets and liabilities and government obligations. It applies forecasting assumptions about interest rates to forecast central bank profit-and-loss flows, and takes account of these in determining the overall flow of resources that would be available to finance the government deficit. An annex describes a (purely illustrative) simulation carried out during 1999 for Ecuador. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to strengthen the tools for macroeconomic policy analysis and planning in the region's economies. The author may be contacted at pbeckermanworldbank.org
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  • 97
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (56 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Honohan, Patrick How Interest Rates Changed under Financial Liberalization
    Keywords: Asset Prices ; Bank Interest Rates ; Bank Lending ; Bank Spreads ; Borrowers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Lending ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rates ; Money Market ; Private Sector Development ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rates ; Treasury ; Treasury Bill ; Treasury Bill Rates ; Asset Prices ; Bank Interest Rates ; Bank Lending ; Bank Spreads ; Borrowers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Lending ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rates ; Money Market ; Private Sector Development ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rates ; Treasury ; Treasury Bill ; Treasury Bill Rates
    Abstract: April 2000 - As financial liberalization progressed, the general level of real interest rates increased more in developing countries than it did in industrial countries. Volatility in wholesale interest rates also jumped, often markedly, in most liberalizing countries. Treasury bill rates and bank spreads showed the greatest increase in developing countries, shifting substantial rents from the public sector and from favored borrowers. Financial liberalization was expected to make interest rates and asset prices more volatile, with distributional consequences such as reduced or relocated rents and increased competition in financial services. Honohan examines available data on money market and bank interest rates for evidence of whether these things happened. He shows that as more and more countries liberalized, the level and dynamic behavior of developing-country interest rates converged to industrial-country norms. In the short term, volatility increased in both real and nominal money market interest rates. Treasury bill rates and bank spreads, evidently the most repressed, showed the greatest increase as liberalization progressed - shifting substantial rents from the public sector and from favored borrowers. Whereas quoted bank spreads in industrial countries contracted somewhat in the late 1990s, spreads in developing countries remained much higher, presumably reflecting both market power and the higher risks of lending in the developing world. There was no clear-cut change in mean rates of inflation, monetary depth, or GDP growth. If anything, there was a small average improvement in inflation, but a decline in monetary depth and economic growth, relative to trends in industrial countries. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to explore optimal policy under financial liberalization. The author may be contacted atphonohanworldbank.org
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  • 98
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Buffer ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Consumption ; Cross-Country Studies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Balance ; Current Account Defic Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Position ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Explanatory Variables ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Income ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Surplus ; World Economy ; Buffer ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Consumption ; Cross-Country Studies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Balance ; Current Account Defic Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Position ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Explanatory Variables ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Income ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Surplus ; World Economy
    Abstract: July 2000 - In developing countries, increases in current account deficits tend to be associated with a rise in domestic output growth and shocks that increase the terms of trade and cause the real exchange rate to appreciate. Higher savings rates, higher growth rates in industrial economies, and higher international interest rates tend to have the opposite effect. Calderón, Chong, and Loayza examine the empirical links between current account deficits and a broad set of economic variables proposed in the literature. To accomplish this, they complement and extend previous research by using a large, consistent set of macroeconomic data on public and private domestic savings, external savings, and national income variables; focusing on developing economies by drawing on a panel data set for 44 developing countries and annual information for the period 1966-95; adopting a reduced-form approach rather than holding to a particular structural model; distinguishing between within-country and cross-country effects; and employing a class of estimators that controls for the problems of simultaneity and reverse causation. Among their findings: · Current account deficits in developing countries are moderately persistent. · A rise in domestic output growth generates a larger current account deficit. · Increases in savings rates have a positive effect on the current account. · Shocks that increase the terms of trade or cause the real exchange rate to appreciate are linked with higher current account deficits. · Either higher growth rates in industrial economies or higher international interest rates reduce the current account deficit in developing economies. This paper-a product of the Regional Studies Program, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of an effort in the region to understand the determinants of external sustainability. The authors may be contacted at crcntroi.cc.rochester.edu, achong@worldbank.org, or nloayza@condor.bcentral.cl
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  • 99
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (54 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Keefer, Philip Bureaucratic Delegation and Political Institutions
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Central Bank Independence ; Central Banks ; Checks ; Contracts ; Credibility ; Credibility Problem ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Default ; Discount ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Investments ; Future ; Futures ; Holding ; ICT Applications ; Inflation ; Inflation Rate ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Money Supply ; Option ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Shocks To Income ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Central Bank Independence ; Central Banks ; Checks ; Contracts ; Credibility ; Credibility Problem ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Default ; Discount ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Investments ; Future ; Futures ; Holding ; ICT Applications ; Inflation ; Inflation Rate ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Money Supply ; Option ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Shocks To Income
    Abstract: March 2000 - Does delegation of policymaking authority to independent agencies improve policy outcomes? This paper reports new theory and tests related to delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank. The authors find that delegation reduces inflation only under specific institutional and political conditions. The government's ability to credibly commit to policy announcements is critical to the successful implementation of economic policies as diverse as capital taxation and utilities regulation. One frequently advocated means of signaling credible commitment is to delegate authority to an agency that will not have an incentive to opportunistically change policies once the private sector has taken such steps as signing wage contracts or making irreversible investments. Delegating authority is suggested as a government strategy particularly for monetary policy. And existing work on the independence of central banks generally assumes that government decisions to delegate are irrevocable. But delegation - in monetary policy as elsewhere - is inevitably a political choice, and can be reversed, contend Keefer and Stasavage. They develop a model of monetary policy that relaxes the assumption that monetary delegation is irreversible. Among the testable predictions of the model are these: · The presence of an independent central bank should reduce inflation only in the presence of political checks and balances. This effect should be evident in both developing and industrial countries. · Political actions to interfere with the central bank should be more apparent when there are few checks and balances. · The effects of checks and balances should be more marked when political decisionmakers are more polarized. The authors test these predictions and find extensive empirical evidence to support each of the observable implications of their model: Central banks are associated with better inflation outcomes in the presence of checks and balances. The turnover of central bank governors is reduced when governors have tenure protections supported by political checks and balances. And the effect of checks and balances is enhanced in more polarized political environments. This paper - a product of Regulation and Competition Policy, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to identify the conditions under which regulatory reforms can be effective. The authors may be contacted at pkeeferworldbank.org or d.stasavage@lse.ac.uk
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  • 100
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Hoekman, Bernard Deep Integration, Nondiscrimination, and Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade
    Keywords: Bilateral Free Trade Agreement ; Competition Laws ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Clearance ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Regulatory Policies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Suppliers ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Market Access Costs ; Market Segmentation ; Market Segmenting ; Market Segmenting Effect ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regionalism ; Regulatory Barriers ; Regulatory Stance ; Safety Regulations ; Tariff ; Tariff Barriers ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Bilateral Free Trade Agreement ; Competition Laws ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Clearance ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Regulatory Policies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Suppliers ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Market Access Costs ; Market Segmentation ; Market Segmenting ; Market Segmenting Effect ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regionalism ; Regulatory Barriers ; Regulatory Stance ; Safety Regulations ; Tariff ; Tariff Barriers ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration
    Abstract: May 1999 - Preferential trade agreements that are limited to the elimination of tariffs for merchandise trade flows are of limited value at best and may be as easily welfare-reducing as welfare-enhancing. It is important that preferential trade agreements go beyond eliminating tariffs and quotas to eliminating regulatory and red tape costs and opening up service markets to foreign competition. Deep integration-explicit government actions to reduce the market-segmenting effect of domestic regulatory policies through coordination and cooperation-is becoming a major dimension of some regional integration agreements, led by the European Union. Health and safety regulations, competition laws, licensing and certification regimes, and administrative procedures such as customs clearance can affect trade (in ways analogous to nontariff barriers) even though their underlying intent may not be to discriminate against foreign suppliers of goods and services. Whether preferential trade agreements (PTAs) can be justified in a multilateral trading system depends on the extent to which formal intergovernmental agreements are technically necessary to achieve the deep integration needed to make markets more contestable. The more need for formal cooperation, the stronger the case for regional integration. Whether PTAs are justified regionally also depends on whether efforts to reduce market segmentation are applied on a nondiscriminatory basis. If innovations to reduce transaction or market access costs extend to both members and nonmembers of a PTA, regionalism as an instrument of trade and investment becomes more attractive. Using a standard competitive general equilibrium model of the Egyptian economy, Hoekman and Konan find that the static welfare impact of a deep free trade agreement is far greater than the impact that can be expected from a classic shallow agreement. Under some scenarios, welfare may increase by more than 10 percent of GDP, compared with close to zero under a shallow agreement. Given Egypt's highly diversified trading patterns, a shallow PTA with the European Union could be merely diversionary, leading to a small decline in welfare. Egypt already has duty-free access to the European Union for manufactures, so the loss in tariff revenues incurred would outweigh any new trade created. Large gains in welfare from the PTA are conditional on eliminating regulatory barriers and red tape-in which case welfare gains may be substantial: 4 to 20 percent growth in real GNP. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze regional integration agreements. The authors may be contacted at bhoekmanworldbank.org or konan@hawaii.edu
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