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  • 1
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    Impact Assessments in Finance and Private Sector Development : What Have We Learned and What Should We Learn? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Impact Assessments in Finance and Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Until recently rigorous impact evaluations have been rare in the area of finance and private sector development. One reason for this is the perception that many policies and projects in this area lend themselves less to formal evaluations. However, a vanguard of new impact evaluations on areas as diverse as fostering microenterprise growth, microfinance, rainfall insurance, and regulatory reform demonstrates that in many circumstances serious evaluation is possible. The purpose of this paper is to synthesize and distil the policy and implementation lessons emerging from these studies, use them to demonstrate the feasibility of impact evaluations in a broader array of topics, and thereby help prompt new impact evaluations for projects going forward
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4944
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  • 2
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    The Impacts of International Migration On Remaining Household Members : Omnibus Results From A Migration Lottery Program (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gibson, John The Impacts of International Migration On Remaining Household Members
    Abstract: The impacts of international migration on development in the sending countries, and especially the effects on remaining household members, are increasingly studied. However, comparisons of households in developing countries with and without migrants are complicated by a double-selectivity problem: households self-select into migration, and among households involved in migration, some send a subset of members with the rest remaining while other households migrate en masse. The authors address these selectivity issues using the randomization provided by an immigration ballot under the Pacific Access Category of New Zealand’s immigration policy. They survey applicants to the 2002-05 ballots in Tonga and compare outcomes for the remaining household members of emigrants with those for members of similar households that were unsuccessful in the ballots. The immigration laws determine which household members can accompany the principal migrant, providing an instrument to address the second selectivity issue. Using this natural experiment, the authors examine the myriad impacts that migration has on remaining household members, focussing on labor supply, income, durable assets, financial service usage, diet, and physical and mental health. The analysis uses multiple hypothesis testing procedures to examine which impacts are robust. The findings indicate that the overall impact on households left behind is largely negative. The findings also reveal evidence that both sources of selectivity matter, leading studies that fail to adequately address them to misrepresent the impact of migration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4956
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  • 3
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    Remittances and the Brain Drain Revisited : the Microdata Show That More Educated Migrants Remit More (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bollard, Albert Remittances and the Brain Drain Revisited
    Abstract: Two of the most salient trends surrounding the issue of migration and development over the past two decades are the large rise in remittances, and an increased flow of skilled migration. However, recent literature based on cross-country regressions has claimed that more educated migrants remit less, leading to concerns that further increases in skilled migration will hamper remittance growth. This paper revisits the relationship between education and remitting behavior using microdata from surveys of immigrants in 11 major destination countries. The data show a mixed pattern between education and the likelihood of remitting, and a strong positive relationship between education and the amount remitted conditional on remitting. Combining these intensive and extensive margins gives an overall positive effect of education on the amount remitted. The microdata then allow investigation as to why the more educated remit more. The analysis finds that the higher income earned by migrants, rather than characteristics of their family situations, explains much of the higher remittances
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5113
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  • 4
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    The Microeconomic Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration of the Best and Brightest : Evidence From the Pacific (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gibson, John The Microeconomic Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration of the Best and Brightest
    Abstract: A unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although the estimates indicate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals, the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion, patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data show a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and point to the need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4965
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  • 5
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    Who Are The Microenterprise Owners? : Evidence From Sri Lanka On Tokman V. De Soto (2008)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (35 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: de Mel, Suresh Who Are The Microenterprise Owners?
    Keywords: Education ; Employment ; Employment generation ; Entry costs ; Informal sector ; Labor Markets ; Labor force ; Labor organization ; Microfinance ; Productive employment ; Self employed ; Social Protections and Labor ; Tertiary Education ; Work & Working Conditions ; Worker ; Workers ; Education ; Employment ; Employment generation ; Entry costs ; Informal sector ; Labor Markets ; Labor force ; Labor organization ; Microfinance ; Productive employment ; Self employed ; Social Protections and Labor ; Tertiary Education ; Work & Working Conditions ; Worker ; Workers ; Education ; Employment ; Employment generation ; Entry costs ; Informal sector ; Labor Markets ; Labor force ; Labor organization ; Microfinance ; Productive employment ; Self employed ; Social Protections and Labor ; Tertiary Education ; Work & Working Conditions ; Worker ; Workers
    Abstract: Is the vast army of the self-employed in low income countries a source of employment generation? This paper uses data from surveys in Sri Lanka to compare the characteristics of own account workers (non-employers) with wage workers and with owners of larger firms. The authors use a rich set of measures of background, ability, and attitudes, including lottery experiments measuring risk attitudes. Consistent with the International Labor Organization's views of the self employed (represented by Tokman), the analysis finds that two-thirds to three-quarters of the own account workers have characteristics which are more like wage workers than larger firm owners. This suggests the majority of the own account workers are unlikely to become employers. Using a two and a half year panel of enterprises, the authors show that the minority of own account workers who are more like larger firm owners are more likely to expand by adding paid employees. The results suggest that finance is not the sole constraint to growth of microenterprises, and provides an explanation for the low rates of growth of enterprises supported by microlending
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  • 6
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    Does It Pay Firms To Register For Taxes ? : The Impact of Formality On Firm Profitability (2008)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (31 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Does It Pay Firms To Register For Taxes ?
    Keywords: Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Employment ; Entrepreneurs ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Firm Size ; Firms ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Medium Enterprises ; Microenterprises ; Microfinance ; Private Sector Development ; Small Enterprises ; Small Firms ; Stores ; Supplier ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Employment ; Entrepreneurs ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Firm Size ; Firms ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Medium Enterprises ; Microenterprises ; Microfinance ; Private Sector Development ; Small Enterprises ; Small Firms ; Stores ; Supplier ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Employment ; Entrepreneurs ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Firm Size ; Firms ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Medium Enterprises ; Microenterprises ; Microfinance ; Private Sector Development ; Small Enterprises ; Small Firms ; Stores ; Supplier ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning
    Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of registering for taxes on firm profits in Bolivia, the country with the highest levels of informality in Latin America. A new survey of micro and small firms enables the authors to control for a rich set of measures of owner ability and business motivations that can affect both profits and the decision to formalize. The paper identifies the impact of tax registration on business profitability using the distance of a firm from the tax office where registration occurs, conditional on the distance to the city center, as an instrument for registration. Proximity to the tax office provides firms with more information about registration, but is argued to not directly affect profits. The findings show that tax registration leads to significantly higher profits for the firms that the instrument affects. However, there is also evidence of heterogeneous effects of tax formality on profits. Tax registration is found to increase profits for the mid-size firms in the sample, but to lower profits for both the smaller and larger firms, in contrast to the standard view that formality increases profits. The analysis shows that owners of large firms who have managed to stay informal have higher entrepreneurial ability than formal firm owners, in contrast to the standard view (correct among smaller firms) that informal firm owners have low ability
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  • 7
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    Using The Global Positioning System In Household Surveys For Better Economics And Better Policy (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (29 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Using The Global Positioning System In Household Surveys For Better Economics And Better Policy
    Keywords: Accessibility ; Air ; Aircraft ; Costs ; E-Business ; Externalities ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Infrastructure ; Policies ; Private Sector Development ; Railway ; Railway Lines ; Road ; Road Network ; Roads ; Roads and Highways ; Signals ; Training ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Accessibility ; Air ; Aircraft ; Costs ; E-Business ; Externalities ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Infrastructure ; Policies ; Private Sector Development ; Railway ; Railway Lines ; Road ; Road Network ; Roads ; Roads and Highways ; Signals ; Training ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Accessibility ; Air ; Aircraft ; Costs ; E-Business ; Externalities ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Infrastructure ; Policies ; Private Sector Development ; Railway ; Railway Lines ; Road ; Road Network ; Roads ; Roads and Highways ; Signals ; Training ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning
    Abstract: Distance and location are important determinants of many choices that economists study. While these variables can sometimes be obtained from secondary data, economists often rely on information that is self-reported by respondents in surveys. These self-reports are used especially for the distance from households or community centers to various features such as roads, markets, schools, clinics, and other public services. There is growing evidence that self-reported distance is measured with error and that these errors are correlated with outcomes of interest. In contrast to self-reports, the Global Positioning System (GPS) can determine almost exact location (typically within 15 meters). The falling cost of GPS receivers (typically below US
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  • 8
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    Migration, remittances, poverty, and human capital : conceptual and empirical challenges (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (16 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Sasin, Marcin J Migration, remittances, poverty, and human capital
    Keywords: Government policies ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Capital ; Impact of migration ; International migration ; Migration ; Migration data ; Policy Research ; Policy Research Working Paper ; Population Policies ; Practitioners ; Remittances ; Government policies ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Capital ; Impact of migration ; International migration ; Migration ; Migration data ; Policy Research ; Policy Research Working Paper ; Population Policies ; Practitioners ; Remittances ; Government policies ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Capital ; Impact of migration ; International migration ; Migration ; Migration data ; Policy Research ; Policy Research Working Paper ; Population Policies ; Practitioners ; Remittances
    Abstract: This paper reviews common challenges faced by researchers interested in measuring the impact of migration and remittances on income, poverty, inequality, and human capital (or, in general, "welfare") as well as difficulties confronting development practitioners in converting this research into policy advice. On the analytical side, the paper discusses the proper formulation of a research question, the choice of the analytical tools, as well as the interpretation of the results in the presence of pervasive endogeneity in all decisions surrounding migration. Particular attention is given to the use of instrumental variables in migration research. On the policy side, the paper argues that the private nature of migration and remittances implies a need to carefully spell out the rationale for interventions. It also notices the lack of good migration data and proper evaluations of migration-related government policies. The paper focuses mainly on microeconomic evidence about international migration, but much of the discussion extends to other settings as well
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  • 9
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    Self-Selection Patterns In Mexico-U.S. Migration : The Role of Migration Networks (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (28 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Self-Selection Patterns In Mexico-U.S. Migration
    Keywords: Anthropology ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Culture & Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Social Development ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Immigrants ; Immigration ; Important Policy ; Income Inequality ; Industry ; International Migration ; Job Opportunities ; Labor Market ; Language Proficiency ; Migrant ; Migrants ; Migration ; Population Policies ; Social Development ; Technology Industry ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement ; Anthropology ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Culture & Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Social Development ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Immigrants ; Immigration ; Important Policy ; Income Inequality ; Industry ; International Migration ; Job Opportunities ; Labor Market ; Language Proficiency ; Migrant ; Migrants ; Migration ; Population Policies ; Social Development ; Technology Industry ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement ; Anthropology ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Culture & Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Social Development ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Immigrants ; Immigration ; Important Policy ; Income Inequality ; Industry ; International Migration ; Job Opportunities ; Labor Market ; Language Proficiency ; Migrant ; Migrants ; Migration ; Population Policies ; Social Development ; Technology Industry ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: The authors examine the role of migration networks in determining self-selection patterns of Mexico-U.S. migration. They first present a simple theoretical framework showing how such networks impact on migration incentives at different education levels and, consequently, how they are likely to affect the expected skill composition of migration. Using survey data from Mexico, the authors then show that the probability of migration is increasing with education in communities with low migrant networks, but decreasing with education in communities with high migrant networks. This is consistent with positive self-selection of migrants being driven by high migration costs, and with negative self-selection of migrants being driven by lower returns to education in the U.S. than in Mexico
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  • 10
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    Migration And Mental Health : Evidence From A Natural Experiment (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (31 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Stillman, Steven Migration And Mental Health
    Keywords: Anxiety ; Children ; Depression ; Families ; Health Effects ; Health, Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Hospital Admission ; Insomnia ; Mental ; Mental Health ; Migrants ; Migration ; People ; Refugees ; Anxiety ; Children ; Depression ; Families ; Health Effects ; Health, Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Hospital Admission ; Insomnia ; Mental ; Mental Health ; Migrants ; Migration ; People ; Refugees ; Anxiety ; Children ; Depression ; Families ; Health Effects ; Health, Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Hospital Admission ; Insomnia ; Mental ; Mental Health ; Migrants ; Migration ; People ; Refugees
    Abstract: People migrate to improve their well-being, whether through an expansion of economic and social opportunities or a reduction in persecution. Yet a large literature suggests that migration can be a stressful process, with potentially negative impacts on mental health, reducing the net benefits of migration. However, to truly understand the effect of migration on mental health one must compare the mental health of migrants to what their mental health would have been had they stayed in their home country. The existing literature is not able to do this and typically settles for comparing the mental health of migrants to that of natives in the destination country, which takes no account of any pre-existing differences between these groups. This paper overcomes the selection problems affecting previous studies of the effect of migration on mental health by examining a migrant lottery program. New Zealand allows a quota of Tongans to immigrate each year with a lottery used to choose among the excess number of applicants. A unique survey conducted by the authors in these two countries allows experimental estimates of the mental health effects of migration to be obtained by comparing the mental health of migrants who were successful applicants in the lottery to the mental health of those who applied to migrate under the quota, but whose names were not drawn in the lottery. Migration is found to lead to improvements in mental health, particularly for women and those with poor mental health in their home country
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  • 11
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    Returns To Capital In Microenterprises : Evidence From A Field Experiment (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (37 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Woodruff, Christopher Returns To Capital In Microenterprises
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Capital stock ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equipment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Investment opportunities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rate ; Micorenterprises ; Microfinance ; Microfinance ; Productive Investment ; Return ; Returns ; Access to Finance ; Capital stock ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equipment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Investment opportunities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rate ; Micorenterprises ; Microfinance ; Microfinance ; Productive Investment ; Return ; Returns ; Access to Finance ; Capital stock ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equipment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Investment opportunities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rate ; Micorenterprises ; Microfinance ; Microfinance ; Productive Investment ; Return ; Returns
    Abstract: Small and informal firms account for a large share of employment in developing countries. The rapid expansion of microfinance services is based on the belief that these firms have productive investment opportunities and can enjoy high returns to capital if given the opportunity. However, measuring the return to capital is complicated by unobserved factors such as entrepreneurial ability and demand shocks, which are likely to be correlated with capital stock. The authors use a randomized experiment to overcome this problem and to measure the return to capital for the average microenterprise in their sample, regardless of whether they apply for credit. They accomplish this by providing cash and equipment grants to small firms in Sri Lanka, and measuring the increase in profits arising from this exogenous (positive) shock to capital stock. After controlling for possible spillover effects, the authors find the average real return to capital to be 5.7 percent a month, substantially higher than the market interest rate. They then examine the heterogeneity of treatment effects to explore whether missing credit markets or missing insurance markets are the most likely cause of the high returns. Returns are found to vary with entrepreneurial ability and with measures of other sources of cash within the household, but not to vary with risk aversion or uncertainty
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  • 12
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    Measuring Microenterprise Profits : Don't Ask How The Sausage Is Made (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (29 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Woodruff, Christopher Measuring Microenterprise Profits
    Keywords: Bank Policy ; Business Environment ; Business in Development ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fungible ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microenterprises ; Microfinance ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Returns ; Tax ; Trust Fund ; Bank Policy ; Business Environment ; Business in Development ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fungible ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microenterprises ; Microfinance ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Returns ; Tax ; Trust Fund ; Bank Policy ; Business Environment ; Business in Development ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fungible ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microenterprises ; Microfinance ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Returns ; Tax ; Trust Fund
    Abstract: A large share of the world's poor is self-employed. Accurate measurement of profits from microenterprises is therefore critical for studying poverty and inequality, measuring the returns to education, and evaluating the success of microfinance programs. But a myriad of problems plague the measurement of profits. The authors report on a variety of different experiments conducted to better understand the importance of some of these problems and to draw recommendations for collecting profit data. In particular, they (1) examine how far we can reconcile self-reported profits and reports of revenue minus expenses through more detailed questions; (2) examine recall errors in sales and report on the results of experiments which randomly allocated account books to firms; and (3) ask firms how much firms like theirs underreport sales in surveys like this, and have research assistants observe the firms at random times 15-16 times during a month to provide measures for comparison. The authors conclude that firms underreport revenues by about 30 percent, that account diaries have significant effects on both revenues and expenses but not on profits, and that simply asking profits provides a more accurate measure of firm profits than detailed questions on revenues and expenses
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  • 13
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    A Land of Milk And Honey With Streets Paved With Gold : Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations About Incomes Abroad ? (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David A Land of Milk And Honey With Streets Paved With Gold
    Keywords: Accurate Information ; Annual Income ; Bank ; Consumer ; Consumer Goods ; Demands ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Income ; Income ; Incomes ; Information ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Population Policies ; Public Sector Development ; Remittances ; Social Protections and Labor ; Accurate Information ; Annual Income ; Bank ; Consumer ; Consumer Goods ; Demands ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Income ; Income ; Incomes ; Information ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Population Policies ; Public Sector Development ; Remittances ; Social Protections and Labor ; Accurate Information ; Annual Income ; Bank ; Consumer ; Consumer Goods ; Demands ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Income ; Income ; Incomes ; Information ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Population Policies ; Public Sector Development ; Remittances ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Millions of people emigrate every year in search of better economic and social opportunities. Anecdotal evidence suggests that emigrants may have over-optimistic expectations about the incomes they can earn abroad, resulting in excessive migration pressure, and in disappointment among those who do migrate. Yet there is almost no statistical evidence on how accurately these emigrants predict the incomes that they will earn working abroad. In this paper the authors combine a natural emigration experiment with unique survey data on would-be emigrants' probabilistic expectations about employment and incomes in the migration destination. Their procedure enables them to obtain moments and quantiles of the subjective distribution of expected earnings in the destination country. The authors find a significant underestimation of both unconditional and conditional labor earnings at all points in the distribution. This underestimation appears driven in part by potential migrants placing too much weight on the negative employment experiences of some migrants, and by inaccurate information flows from extended family, who may be trying to moderate remittance demands by understating incomes
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