ISBN:
9780833036537
,
0833057987
,
9781598753752
,
1598753754
,
9780833057983
,
083303653X
Language:
English
Pages:
1 Online-Ressource (xxxv, 228 pages)
Parallel Title:
Print version Health status and medical treatment of the future elderly
Keywords:
Older people Medical care
;
Economic aspects
;
Medical care Mathematical models
;
Older people Health and hygiene
;
Forecasting
;
Medical care, Cost of Forecasting
;
Older people
;
Medical care
;
Older people
;
Medical care, Cost of
;
Medicare economics
;
Population Dynamics
;
Health Expenditures trends
;
Health Services for the Aged economics
;
Health Planning
;
Health Status Aged
;
Aged
;
Health Planning
;
Health Status
;
Population Dynamics
;
Health Expenditures trends
;
Health Services for the Aged economics
;
Aged Public Health
;
Public Health
;
Health & Biological Sciences
;
United States
;
MEDICAL ; Health Policy
;
Medical care, Cost of ; Forecasting
;
Medical care ; Mathematical models
;
United States
;
Electronic book
Abstract:
The ability to predict future health care costs reasonably accurately is critical to planning for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The models used for such projections to date, however, are limited in terms of their capacity to take into account the complex array of factors likely to affect future spending. To improve CMS's ability to map the effects on spending of such factors as medical breakthroughs and demographic trends, RAND Health developed the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic-economic model framework of health spending projections that enables the user to answer "what-if" questions about the effects of changes in health status and disease treatment on future health care costs. What distinguishes the FEM from other models is its inclusion of a multidimensional characterization of health status, which allows the user to include a richer set of demographic controls as well as comorbid conditions and functional status. This report describes the development of the FEM and its application in four clinical areas: cardiovascular disease, the biology of aging and cancer, neurological disease, and changes in health care services. Beside those involved in planning at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, it should be of interest to health policy planners and health economists
Description / Table of Contents:
Prospects for medical advances in the 21st century -- The medical expert panels -- The future elderly model (FEM) -- Health expenditures -- Health status -- The health status of future Medicare entering cohorts -- Scenarios -- Usefulness to the Office of the Actuary -- Conclusions.
Note:
"TR-169-CMS, August 2004, prepared for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
,
Includes bibliographical references (pages 214-228)
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