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  • 2010-2014  (4)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (4)
  • Internationale Wirtschaft  (4)
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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Taglioni, Daria Innocent Bystanders
    Keywords: Internationale Wirtschaft ; Risiko ; Schock
    Abstract: The failure of trade economists to anticipate the extreme drop in trade post Lehman Brothers bankruptcy suggests that the behavior of trade in exceptional circumstances may still be poorly understood. This paper explores whether uncertainty shocks have explanatory power for movements in trade. VAR estimations on United States data suggest that domestic uncertainty is a strong predictor of movements in imports, but has little effect on exports. Guided by these results, the paper estimates a bilateral model with focus on the impact of importer uncertainty on foreign suppliers. It finds that there is a strong negative relationship between uncertainty and trade and that this relationship is non-linear. Uncertainty matters most when its levels are exceptionally high. The paper does not find evidence of learning from past turmoils, suggesting that prior experience with major uncertainty shocks does not reduce the effect on trade. In line with the expectations, the negative effect of uncertainty shocks on trade is higher for trade relationships more intensive in durable goods. Surprisingly, however, the effect of durability is non-linear. Supply chain considerations or the possibility that the relationships with the highest durability lead to important compositional effects may have a bearing on the results. The results are robust to excluding the post Lehman shock, suggesting that the trade response during the 2008-2009 crisis has been similar to past uncertainty events
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Laborde, David Measuring the Impacts of Global Trade Reform with Optimal Aggregators of Distortions
    Keywords: Internationale Wirtschaft ; Reform ; Handelsliberalisierung ; Außenhandel ; Handelseffekt ; Wohlfahrtsanalyse ; Sensitivitätsanalyse ; Welt
    Abstract: Traditional weighted-average measures of trade distortions are widely used in analyzing global and regional reforms, despite well-known deficiencies. This paper develops and applies optimal aggregators for the real-world case of multiple countries and commodities with much more detailed information on trade than on production and consumption. The approach reflects the fact that different aggregators are needed for expenditure on imported goods and for tariff revenues, and allows for incorporation of both intensive and extensive margins of adjustment to reform. Applications confirm that the technique is straightforward enough for widespread use, and point to close to a doubling of the welfare gains at the intensive margin when using the highest possible level of international commodity disaggregation, with larger gains in developing regions than in the industrial countries. The measured income gains increase along the entire path of liberalization, with slightly larger increases in the earlier stages, where the gaps between the responses of the expenditure and tariff revenue aggregators are largest. Sensitivity analysis suggests that, for global trade reform, the ease of substitution between tariff lines is much more important than that between varieties from different countries
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    Online Resource
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    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kukenova, Madina Financial Liberalization and Allocative Efficiency of Capital
    Keywords: 1975-2003 ; Finanzmarktregulierung ; Aktienmarkt ; Faktorproportionentheorem ; Allokationseffizienz ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Welt
    Abstract: Financial liberalization may have a positive effect on growth not only through the increase in the quantity of the available funds, but also through a more efficient allocation of resources across firms and sectors. Despite this intuitive appeal, there is little empirical evidence on the positive effect of financial liberalization on capital allocation. The main difficulty of investigating the linkage between liberalization of financial markets and capital allocation efficiency lies in the fact that the efficiency of capital allocation is not directly observable. One way to address this issue is to evaluate the effect of financial liberalization within the Heckscher-Ohlin framework. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of the funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long run growth. This paper tests the allocative efficiency hypothesis by evaluating the effect of stock market liberalization on the survival of different product categories using export data for 91 countries over the period of 1975-2003. Preliminary results suggest that after liberalization of the domestic stock market, products employing intensively scarce factors exit at a relatively higher rate from a country's export portfolio. In other words, following liberalization episodes, a country tends to rebalance its export portfolio towards products consistent with its factor's endowments
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Milberg, William Trade Crisis and Recovery
    Keywords: Globale Wertschöpfungskette ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Außenhandelsstruktur ; Wirtschaftskrise ; Welt
    Abstract: The recent large and rapid slowdown in economic activity has resulted in even larger and more rapid declines in international trade. As world trade is set to rebound, this paper addresses three questions: (i) Will trade volumes rebound in a symmetric fashion as world economic growth rebounds? (ii) Will the crisis result in a change in the structure of trade, and in particular will it lead to a reversal of the pattern of more diversified sourcing and thus to a consolidation of global value chains? (iii) What policies can improve the prospects for developing country growth in the event that trade volumes do not rebound symmetrically and there is a consolidation of some global value chains?
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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