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  • de Serres, Alain  (24)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (24)
  • Economics  (24)
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  • 1
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    Doing green things: skills, reallocation, and the green transition (2023)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1763
    Keywords: Employment ; Economics
    Abstract: The need to rapidly decarbonise economies raises questions about whether countries’ workforces possess the requisite skills to achieve the net zero transition as well as the capacity to redeploy workers from “brown” to “green” jobs. This paper applies a task-based framework to granular data from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) and country-specific employment sources to generate new indicators of the green skills structure of labour markets for a large number of OECD countries and non-OECD EU countries. Significant cross-country differences emerge in the underlying supply of green skill and the potential of economies to reallocate brown job workers to green jobs within their broad occupation categories. In a majority of detailed brown occupations, workers have in principle the necessary skills to transition to green jobs, with the exception of those in production occupations, who may require more extensive re-skilling. In contrast, workers from most highly automatable occupations are generally not found to have the sufficient skills to transition to green jobs, suggesting more limited scope for the net-zero transition to reinstate labour displaced by automation.
    DOI: 10.1787/286a5007-en
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  • 2
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    Can pro-growth policies lift all boats? : An analysis based on household disposable income (2015)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Economic Studies Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 227-268 | volume:2015 | year:2015 | number:1 | pages:227-268
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Economic Studies
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 227-268
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:227-268
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: In a majority of OECD countries, GDP growth over the past three decades has been associated with growing income disparities. To shed some lights on the potential sources of trade-offs between growth and equity, this paper investigates the long-run impact of structural reforms on GDP per capita and household income distribution. Pro-growth reforms can be distinguished according to whether they are found to generate an increase or a reduction in household disposable income inequality. Those that contribute to reduce inequality include the reduction in regulatory barriers to competition, trade and FDI, as well as the stepping-up in job search assistance and training programmes. Conversely, a tightening of unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed is found to lift mean household income but to lower income among poorer households, thus raising inequality. Several other reforms have no significant impact on income distribution. JEL Classification: 047, D37, E61 Keywords: Growth, inequality, pro-growth policies
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2015-5jrqhbb1t5jb
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  • 3
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    A Framework for Assessing Green Growth Policies (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 71 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.774
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper proposes an analytical framework for assessing policies that will contribute to a better integration of environmental externalities in the pursuit of economic efficiency and growth objectives. The framework consists of two parts. The first part lays out principles and criteria for the identification and selection of policies that will benefit both income and the environment or that will boost income at the least cost in terms of the environment (and vice-versa). In general putting a price on a pollution source or on the over-exploitation of a scarce resource is found to be the most efficient single policy to address many environment externalities. However, given that environmental damage often result from several interacting market failures, an appropriate policy response will in many cases involve a mix of complementary instruments. The second part focuses more on issues of structural adjustment related to the transition towards a greener economy. It finds that green growth policies could lead to significant re-allocation of resources within and across broad economic sectors. A policy framework facilitating the re-deployment of labour across firms and sectors, as well as the entry of new firms and the exit of firms in declining industries will thus be important in order for countries to seize the opportunities brought about by green growth policies.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmfj2xvcmkf-en
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  • 4
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    L' impact de l'économie géographique sur le PIB par tête dans les pays de l'OCDE (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: French
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe The contribution of economic geography to GDP per capita
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Cet article examine dans quelle mesure la dispersion des performances économiques entre pays de l’OCDE peut être expliquée par la proximité de zones denses d’activités économiques. Pour ce faire, divers indicateurs de distance par rapport aux marchés et de coûts de transports sont ajoutés comme déterminants dans un modèle de Solow augmenté, utilisé comme référence. Diverses mesures de distance sont estimées avoir un effet significatif sur le PIB par habitant. De plus, l’impact économique estimé est loin d’être négligeable. L’éloignement par rapport aux marchés pourrait pénaliser l’Australie et la Nouvelle Zélande, par rapport à la moyenne des pays de l’OCDE, à hauteur de 11 % du PIB. A l’inverse, la Belgique et les Pays-Bas bénéficieraient de leur position centrale pour environ 6-7 % du PIB. Des premières indications suggèrent également que les dépenses en R-D et en capital humain peuvent avoir un effet plus fort sur le PIB par tête dans les pays ayant un fort degré de concentration urbaine.
    DOI: 10.1787/9789264053656-9-fr
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  • 5
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    Have Developed Countries Escaped the Curse of Distance? (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 30 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.610
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: There is widespread evidence that a better access to markets contributes to raising income levels. However, no quantification of the impact of distance to markets has been made on the basis of a sample restricted to advanced — and therefore more homogeneous — countries. This paper applies the framework developed by Redding and Venables (2004) on a panel data covering 21 OECD countries over 1970-2004, and shows that, relative to the average OECD country, the cost of remoteness for countries such as Australia and New Zealand could be as high as 10% of GDP. Conversely, the benefit for centrally-located countries like Belgium and the Netherlands could be around 6-7%. Second, the paper explains why the key estimated parameter in the Redding-Venables model is biased upwards in cross-section samples that mix both developing and developed countries, because of the inability to adequately control for heterogeneity in technology levels across countries. The paper also provides a detailed discussion of the links between the ?death-of-distance? hypothesis, the evolution of transport costs and that of the elasticity of trade to distance.
    DOI: 10.1787/241705110254
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  • 6
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    The Contribution of Economic Geography to GDP Per Capita (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 56 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.602
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines how much of the dispersion in economic performance across OECD countries can be accounted for by economic geography factors. More specifically, two aspects of economic geography are examined, namely the proximity to areas of dense economic activity and endowments in natural resources. To do so, various indicators of distance to markets, transportation costs, and dependence on natural resources are added as determinants in an augmented Solow model, which serves as a benchmark. Three measures of distance to markets are found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP per capita: the sum of bilateral distances, market potential and the weighted sum of market access and supplier access. And the estimated economic impact is far from negligible. The reduced access to markets relative to the OECD average could contribute negatively to GDP per capita by as much as 10% in Australia and New Zealand. Conversely, a favourable impact of around 6-7% of GDP is found in the case of two centrally-located countries: Belgium and the Netherlands. Endowments in natural resources are also found to have a significant positive effect on GDP per capita, suggesting that OECD countries have, on average, escaped the natural resource curse or severe forms of the Dutch disease. The paper provides also some tentative evidence that spending on R&D and human capital might have a stronger effect on GDP per capita in countries with a higher degree of urban concentration.
    DOI: 10.1787/242216186836
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  • 7
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    Reforming the Polish Tax System to Improve its Efficiency (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 44 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.630
    Keywords: Economics ; Poland
    Abstract: The Polish tax system is characterised by high social security contributions for both employers and employees. As a result, Poland has one of the highest tax wedges in the OECD, despite relatively low personal income tax rates. This, combined with a relatively high minimum wage and generous early-retirement and disability benefit programmes, contributes to low employment rates, in particular among low-skilled workers. The system also relies heavily on consumption taxes, whereas relatively little revenue is collected from such bases as environment externalities, inheritances and, in particular, property. One of the key implications of the tax structure is that the system as a whole is one of the least redistributive among OECD countries. This paper reviews the main features of the tax system and explores options to improve its efficiency, including possibilities to broaden existing tax bases as well as to shift the tax burden from labour towards less mobile and distorting sources such as property.
    DOI: 10.1787/240788685657
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  • 8
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    Réglementation des systèmes financiers et croissance économique dans les pays de l'OCDE (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  Revue économique de l'OCDE Vol. 2006, no. 2, p. 89-131
    Details
    ISSN: 1684-3444
    Language: French
    Pages: 46 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Regulation of financial systems and economic growth in OECD countries: An empirical analysis
    Titel der Quelle: Revue économique de l'OCDE
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OCDE, 1998
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2006, no. 2, p. 89-131
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Le fonctionnement du système financier peut avoir un impact décisif sur la croissance économique et sur la stabilité de l’économie. Il influe sur la croissance économique à long terme par son effet sur l’efficience de l’intermédiation entre épargnants et emprunteurs finaux ; par le degré auquel il permet une surveillance des utilisateurs de fonds externes, ce qui se répercute sur la productivité du capital utilisé ; enfin, par son incidence sur le volume de l’épargne, qui conditionne la capacité future de l’économie de générer des revenus. Le système financier agit sur la stabilité de l’économie en raison du fort pouvoir de levier de ses activités et de son rôle central dans le règlement de l’ensemble des transactions au sein de l’économie, de sorte que toute défaillance d’un segment risque de compromettre la stabilité du système dans son ensemble.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2006-art10-fr
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  • 9
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    The contribution of economic geography to GDP per capita (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-37
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 38 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. L'impact de l'économie géographique sur le PIB par tête dans les pays de l'OCDE
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-37
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This article examines how much of the dispersion in economic performance across OECD countries can be accounted for by the proximity to areas of dense economic activity. To do so, various indicators of distance to markets and transportation costs are added as determinants in an augmented Solow model, which serves as a benchmark. Measures of distance to markets are found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP per capita. And the estimated economic impact is far from negligible. The reduced access to markets relative to the OECD average could contribute negatively to GDP per capita by as much as 11% in Australia and New Zealand. Conversely, a favourable impact of around 6-7% of GDP is found in the case of two centrally-located countries: Belgium and the Netherlands. The paper provides also some tentative evidence that spending on R&D and human capital might have a stronger effect on GDP per capita in countries with a higher degree of urban concentration.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2008-art9-en
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  • 10
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    Regulation of financial systems and economic growth in OECD countries : An empirical analysis (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2006, no. 2, p. 77-113
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 46 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Réglementation des systèmes financiers et croissance économique dans les pays de l'OCDE
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2006, no. 2, p. 77-113
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The operation of the financial system can have a key impact on economic growth and the stability of the economy. It affects long-term economic growth through its effect on the efficiency of intermediation between the savers and final borrowers of funds; through the extent to which it allows for monitoring of the users of external funds, affecting thereby the productivity of capital employed; and through its implications for the volume of saving, which influences the future income-generating capacity of the economy. It affects the stability of the economy because of the high degree of leverage of its activities and its pivotal role in the settlement of all transactions in the economy, so that any failure in one segment risks undermining the stability of the whole system.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2006-art10-en
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  • 11
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    Regulation of Financial Systems and Economic Growth (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 50 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.506
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines whether regulation that is more conducive to competitive and efficient financial systems has a significant positive impact on sectoral output and productivity growth in a sample of 25 OECD countries. More specifically, following a methodology used by Rajan and Zingales (1998), the paper tests whether industries that depend more heavily on external sources of funding tend to grow faster in countries that have more competition-friendly regulation in markets for banking services and financial instruments. The regulatory indicators are assembled from surveys conducted by the World Bank on regulations in banking and securities markets. They point to substantial variations in the stance of regulation across countries, in particular with respect to the broad rules underpinning securities market transactions. The empirical analysis indicates that financial system regulation matters for output growth both in a statistical and economic sense.
    DOI: 10.1787/870803826715
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  • 12
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    Tax Treatment of Private Pension Savings in OECD Countries and the Net Tax Cost Per Unit of Contribution to Tax-Favoured Schemes (2004)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 108 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.406
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper provides, for all OECD countries, an estimate of the net tax cost per currency unit of contribution to a tax-favoured retirement savings plan, using a present-value methodology. The latter takes into account the future flows of revenues foregone on accrued income and of revenues collected on benefit withdrawals corresponding to a unit contribution made in a given year. The net tax cost is first calculated for nine (five-year) age groups, which have different relative income levels and investment time horizons, and is then averaged across age groups. In order to take into consideration the relevant country-specific features of savings taxation, the paper also provides an overview of the tax treatment of private pension arrangements and alternative savings vehicles. The results indicate that the size of tax subsidy varies significantly across countries, ranging from nearly 40 cents per unit of contribution (Czech Republic) to around zero (Mexico, New Zealand). Over half of ...
    DOI: 10.1787/387535760801
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  • 13
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    La baisse des taux d'épargne privée durant les années 90 dans les pays de l'OCDE : Contribution des déterminants autres que la richesse (2004)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  Revue économique de l'OCDE Vol. 2003, no. 1, p. 129-167
    Details
    ISSN: 1684-3444
    Language: French
    Pages: 41 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries: How Much Can Be Explained by Non-wealth Determinants?
    Titel der Quelle: Revue économique de l'OCDE
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OCDE, 1998
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2003, no. 1, p. 129-167
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: La baisse substantielle des taux d’épargne privée observée dans plusieurs pays de l’OCDE durant la fin des années 90 a coïncidé dans bien des cas avec une forte hausse de la richesse financière nette des ménages. Ce phénomène a été interprété par plusieurs analystes comme indiquant que la forte augmentation des valeurs mobilières et immobilières durant cette période avait été traitée par les ménages comme une hausse permanente de la richesse, entraînant une baisse non soutenable de l’épargne, et faisant ainsi surgir la crainte d’un éventuel effet de richesse négatif. À l’aide de techniques d’estimation pour un panel d’équations dynamiques, cette étude examine les principaux déterminants de l’épargne privée pour un échantillon de 15 pays de l’OCDE et constate que la baisse de l’épargne observée après 1995 peut être largement expliquée par des déterminants fondamentaux autres que la richesse financière, y compris en période hors échantillon. Parmi ces déterminants, c’est la hausse de l’épargne publique qui a contribué le plus à la désépargne privée entre 1995 et 2000. À en juger par les résultats, il ne semble guère que les consommateurs aient réagi trop fortement au boom du marché boursier des années 90, même dans les pays où les taux d’épargnes ont tombés à des niveaux sans précédent. Par contre, les résultats donnent à penser qu’un assouplissement de ...
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2003-art4-fr
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  • 14
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    Long-Term Budgetary Implications of Tax-Favoured Retirement Plans (2004)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 71 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.393
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the implicit fiscal assets as well as of the evolution over time of fiscal costs and revenues related to tax-favoured retirement saving regimes in 17 OECD countries, taking into account current and future contributions, asset accumulation and withdrawals, all of which will be strongly influenced by future demographic developments. The main results show that in the case where tax incentives are assumed to lead essentially to saving diversion rather than creation, the net budgetary cost of tax-favoured schemes would remain large, despite the sharp rise in revenues collected from withdrawals as population ages. The paper shows that this cost would significantly be reduced if tax-favoured schemes succeed in promoting additional private savings. It then explores a number of policy options to maximize the amount of additional saving ...
    DOI: 10.1787/138080145732
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  • 15
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    Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Performance (2003)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 66 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.353
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper analyses the major changes in both monetary and fiscal policy that have taken place over the past two decades and, within the limits of the existing empirical research, evaluates the overall costs and benefits for the OECD economies. The general findings for monetary policy are that, while it was costly to lower inflation (in terms of output and employment), there are also benefits in terms of lower risk premiums on interest rates, a more favourable investment climate and an improvement in economic efficiency. That said, the paper concludes that there is not much of a case for lowering inflation further from its already low level. While inflation was being lowered, in a number of cases central banks were also undergoing rather significant changes to their institutional structures and policy-making frameworks. There is some limited evidence that these changes have helped in terms of better anchoring inflation expectations. At the same time there is no firm answer on how ...
    DOI: 10.1787/444611645531
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  • 16
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    Structural Policies and Growth : A Non-Technical Overview (2003)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 52 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.355
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: In contrast to what has happened throughout the 1960s and 1970s, some of the largest EU countries and Japan are no longer closing the income gap vis-à-vis the United States. Worse, the gap may even be widening since the mid-1990s. While in the case of Japan the gap in GDP per capita is essentially due to the lagging performance in labour productivity, the European Union is trailing mainly in terms of labour resource utilisation, reflecting both lower employment rates and fewer hours worked. This paper provides a brief overview of the main structural factors thought to have contributed to differences in the degree of labour resource utilisation, as well as in the intensity of physical and human capital use and in the pace of technological progress. In doing so, it provides a set of performance and policy indicators which can be used to assess progress achieved in structural reform ...
    DOI: 10.1787/877032331705
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  • 17
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    The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries : How Much Can Be Explained by Non-wealth Determinants? (2003)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2003, no. 1, p. 117-153
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 40 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. La baisse des taux d'épargne privée durant les années 90 dans les pays de l'OCDE : Contribution des déterminants autres que la richesse
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2003, no. 1, p. 117-153
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The substantial decline in private-sector saving rates observed in several OECD countries in the late 1990s coincided in several cases with a sharp increase in household financial net worth. This was seen by many observers as evidence that the strong rise in equity and residential property prices during the late 1990s had been treated by households as a permanent increase in wealth, leading to an unsustainable drop in saving and raising fears of an eventual negative wealth effect. Applying estimation techniques for systems of dynamic panel equations, this paper looks at basic determinants of private saving for a sample of 15 OECD countries and finds that the sharp decline in saving observed after 1995 can be largely explained, even in a post-sample fashion, by fundamentals other than financial wealth. Among the determinants, the rise in public-sector saving is found to have contributed the most to the decline in private saving between 1995 and 2000. Based on this investigation, there is little evidence that consumers had gone too far in responding to the stock market boom of the late 1990s, even in countries where private saving rates have fallen to historically low levels. On the other hand, the results suggest that a loosening of fiscal policy may have a limited stimulatory impact on private consumption...
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2003-art4-en
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  • 18
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    Sectoral Shifts in Europe and the United States : How They Affect Aggregate Labour Shares and the Properties of Wage Equations (2002)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 50 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.326
    Keywords: Economics ; United States
    Abstract: This paper sheds light on the importance of aggregation bias in the analysis of wage shares developments over time and across countries. We focus on five European countries and the United States and show that the trend decline in the aggregate wage share observed in these countries over much of the 1980s and 1990s partly reflects changes in the sectoral composition of the economy. The application of a fixed-weight aggregation method changes the profile of the observed wage share in a significant way: in particular there is no longer sign of an overshooting of the wage share levels of the early-1970s. Error-correction wage equations based on the adjusted wage shares generally have a better regression fit and show long-run elasticities of real wages to unemployment that vary less across countries and are substantially lower than those obtained with observed shares. These results are broadly confirmed by wage regressions using sectoral data and the Pooled Mean Group estimator ...
    DOI: 10.1787/763626062738
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  • 19
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    Increases in Business Investment Rates in OECD Countries in the 1990s : How Much Can be Explained by Fundamentals? (2002)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 41 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.327
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: In several OECD countries, investment rates in the business sector grew strongly in the second half of the 1990s. In some cases, the strength of private investment relative to output growth had raised concerns about the risk of capital overhang and the prospect of a prolonged period of slow capital formation in order to bring investment levels back to more sustainable levels. It is possible that the stock market boom has contributed to a rise of investment demand to an excessive level, not only in the United States, but also in the United Kingdom, Canada, Scandinavia and Greece. The purpose of this paper is to assess the contribution of fundamental determinants to the change in investment in the second half of the 1990s, based on the estimation of panel cointegration equations for gross business investment for 18 OECD countries from 1970 to 1999. In addition to the levels of real GDP and a measure of the cost of capital, the set of explanatory variables includes four alternative ...
    DOI: 10.1787/688436342124
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  • 20
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    The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries : How Much Can be Explained by Non-Wealth Determinants? (2002)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 50 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.344
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The substantial decline in private-sector saving rates observed in several OECD countries in the late 1990s coincided in several cases with a sharp increase in household financial net worth. This was seen by many observers as evidence that the strong rise in equity and residential property prices during the late 1990s had been treated by households as a permanent increase in wealth, leading to an unsustainable drop in saving and raising fears of an eventual negative wealth effect. Applying estimation techniques for systems of dynamic panel equations, this paper looks at basic determinants of private saving for a sample of 15 OECD countries and finds that the sharp decline in saving observed after 1995 can be largely explained, even in a post-sample fashion, by fundamentals other than financial wealth. Among the determinants, the rise in public-sector saving is found to have contributed the most to the decline in private saving between 1995 and 2000. Based on this ...
    DOI: 10.1787/241254248236
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  • 21
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    Tracking the Euro (2001)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 44 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.298
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: During the first two years of monetary union, the euro's weakness surprised most market participants. Explanations proliferated ranging from fundamentals such as differences in growth prospects to psychological factors such as herd behaviour, but no single story fully accounts for the observed exchange rate path. Based on an eclectic approach, this paper offers an empirical analysis showing that terms-of-trade and saving/investment behaviour seem to have driven the euro exchange rate over the medium and longer run. While such econometric estimates ought to be interpreted with due care, they do support the view that towards the end of 2000, the euro was significantly undervalued ...
    DOI: 10.1787/536702025320
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  • 22
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    The Width of the Intra-European Economic Borders (2001)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.304
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper first provides a brief overview of the literature on market segmentation and then presents an empirical exercise that sheds more light on the significance of border effects across European countries. The literature suggests that integration in the EU goods and financial markets is typically more advanced than among the other OECD countries. On the other hand, integration in Europe remains significantly lower than that observed between regions within countries. The empirical exercise is based on a set of comparable price data of tradeable goods collected just before the launch of the single currency. The paper finds that for a given distance, crossing national borders adds significantly to the price differential across European cities. However, this border effect is substantially smaller than the one found in previous estimates focusing on European and North American cities, which were based on the comparison of much broader price indices such as the consumer price index ...
    DOI: 10.1787/281117327340
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  • 23
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    Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries : A Simulated SVAR Model Approach (1999)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 46 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.216
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: In this paper, a structural VAR model is estimated for 11 EU countries in order to assess the effect on the government deficit ratio of four independent economic disturbances: supply, fiscal, real private demand and monetary shocks. Based on the estimated distribution of these shocks, stochastic simulations are performed to derive estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances that would have to be maintained to avoid breaching the Stability and Growth Pact’s 3 per cent of GDP deficit limit over different time horizons and with varying degrees of confidence. In order to capture the movement in the deficit stemming from automatic stabilisation, fiscal policy shocks are turned off during the simulations. The results suggest that, for the majority of countries, if governments were to aim for a cyclically-adjusted budget deficit between 1.0 and 1.5 per cent of GDP, the actual deficit would, with a 90 per cent likelihood, remain within the 3 per cent limit over a three-year horizon ...
    DOI: 10.1787/475132665781
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  • 24
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    The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context (1998)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 131 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.193
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This study was prepared in the Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation -wide study of the economic consequences of population ageing. It presents a number of long-term scenarios illustrating the likely domestic and international macroeconomic effects of ageing across the OECD and policies which might ameliorate or reverse underlying tensions. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on the Secretariat’s new international dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomic model (MINILINK). A “business-as-usual” case is examined in which, without improvements in labour market performance or specific policy adjustments to allow for the pressures of ageing, economic growth is projected to slow significantly over the next 50 years in nearly all OECD countries; world real interest rates remain stable at current levels or even rise, because of the effects of ageing on private savings and the possible build-up of public ...
    DOI: 10.1787/502646045314
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