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  • Turner, David  (10)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (10)
  • Dordrecht : Springer
  • Graue Literatur  (10)
  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Saving, investment, capital stock and current account projections in long-term scenarios (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1461
    Schlagwort(e): Sparquote ; Kapitalstock ; Investition ; Leistungsbilanz ; Leistungsbilanz ; Szenariotechnik ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: The paper describes the framework used in long-term economic scenarios for the projection of the saving rate, investment, capital stock and current account. The saving rate is determined according to an estimated equation which suggests that demographics, captured by the old-age dependency rate and life expectancy, is a major driver, with additional effects from the fiscal balance, labour productivity growth, the net oil trade balance, the availability of credit and the level of social protection. The evolution of the business sector capital stock depends on the economy’s cyclical position, product market regulation, employment protection legislation and the user cost of capital, and may be constrained by current account deficits depending on the degree of capital account openness. Business sector investment is derived from the capital stock projection via the usual stock-flow identity. The public sector capital stock-to-output ratio is assumed to be constant in the baseline scenario, but a public investment shock can be simulated in alternative scenarios. The current account balance is obtained as the difference between national investment and saving, and in turn determines the evolution of the net international investment position. A global interest rate premium helps to bring global saving and investment into balance.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/aa519fc9-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Investment as a transmission mechanism from weak demand to weak supply and the post-crisis productivity slowdown (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1466
    Schlagwort(e): Finanzkrise ; Produktionspotenzial ; Kapitalstock ; Investition ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Akzelerator ; Hysterese ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration of potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. For the most severely affected economies, the financial crisis is estimated to have reduced potential output by more than 2% via this transmission mechanism. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, over a period when the use of conventional macro policy instruments was constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competition-friendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/0c62cc26-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 3
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The long view : scenarios for the world economy to 2060 (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD economic policy paper no. 22 (July 2018)
    Serie: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.22
    Schlagwort(e): 2016 ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Szenariotechnik ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: This paper presents long-run economic projections for 46 countries, extending the short-run projections of the Spring 2018 OECD Economic Outlook. It first sets out a baseline scenario under the assumption that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms. This scenario is then used as a reference point to illustrate the potential impact of structural reforms in alternative scenarios, including better governance and educational attainment in the large emerging-market economies and competition-friendly product market and labour market reforms in OECD economies. Flexibility-enhancing labour market reforms not only boost living standards but, by raising the employment rate, also help alleviate fiscal pressures associated with population ageing. Another scenario illustrates the potential positive impact of linking the pensionable age to life expectancy on the participation rate of older workers, and in particular that of women. Additional scenarios illustrate the potential economic gains from raising public investment and spending more on research and development. A final ‘negative’ scenario shows how slipping back on trade liberalisation – returning to 1990 average tariff rates – might depress standards of living everywhere.
    DOI: 10.1787/b4f4e03e-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
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  • 4
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    A revised approach to productivity convergence in long-term scenarios (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1385
    Schlagwort(e): Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Längsschnittanalyse ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: The paper describes revisions to the trend labour efficiency component of the production function underpinning long-term economic scenarios. The main goal of the revision is to add more policy and institutional determinants in the equation to enrich the scenarios that can be constructed. In the proposed equation, equilibrium trend labour efficiency depends on a broad measure of the quality of institutions and governance (the World’s Bank rule of law indicator), human capital (based on average years of schooling attainment), product market regulation (PMR), openness to trade adjusted for country size, the stability of the macroeconomic framework (based on inflation and its variance), income inequality (based on GINI coefficients) as well as domestic and global research and development (via accumulated stocks of R&D). Apart from the innovation effects, the sizes of the other effects are jointly estimated in a conditional convergence framework with a sample of about 120 countries, without the use of country fixed effects. Rule of law and openness are also estimated to influence the speed of convergence toward the long-term equilibrium.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/0b8947e3-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: Volltext
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  • 5
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Designing fan charts for GDP growth forecasts to better reflect downturn risks (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1428
    Schlagwort(e): Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Wirtschaftsprognose ; Konjunktur ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: Forecasts of GDP growth are typically over-optimistic for horizons beyond the current year, particularly because they fail to predict the occurrence or severity of future downturns. Macroeconomic forecasters have also long been under pressure to convey the uncertainty surrounding their forecasts, particularly since the financial crisis. The current paper proposes a method to address both these issues simultaneously by constructing fan charts which are parameterised on the basis of the historical forecasting track record, but distinguish between a "safe" regime and a "downturn-risk" regime. To identify the two regimes, use is made of recent OECD work on early warning indicators of a prospective downturn, relating to housing market or credit developments. Thus, when an early warning indicator is “flashing", the associated fan chart is not only wider to reflect increased uncertainty, but is also skewed to reflect greater downside risks using a two-piece normal distribution of the form used by central banks to provide fan charts around inflation forecasts. Conversely, in a safe regime, when the early warning indicators are not flashing, as well as being symmetric, the fan chart is narrower both relative to the downturn-risk regime and relative to what the fan chart would be if the dispersion was calculated with respect to the entire forecast track record with no distinction between regimes. The method is illustrated by reference to OECD GDP forecasts for the major seven economies made just prior to the global financial crisis, with fan charts calibrated using the track record of forecasts published in the OECD Economic Outlook. Fan charts which take account of early warning indicators in this way are much better at encapsulating the outturns associated with a downturn than a symmetrical fan chart calibrated indiscriminately on all forecast errors.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/e86f1bfc-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The fiscal projection framework in long-term scenarios (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1440
    Schlagwort(e): Szenariotechnik ; Finanzpolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: The paper describes the fiscal framework used in long-term economic scenarios, with some emphasis on revisions made since the 2013 vintage of the long-term model. Long-term projections for public spending on pensions, health and long-term care are now separate from other primary expenditure and sourced from previous OECD work taking account of population ageing and other cost pressures. Other primary expenditure are assumed to remain constant in real terms on a per capita basis, rather than remaining stable as a share of GDP. This difference is important for long-term fiscal projections because government finances are sensitive to the employment rate, whereas expenditure is linked to the total population. A fiscal rule adjusts government revenue to ensure that public debt eventually stabilises as a share of GDP, making government revenue as a share of GDP the preferred indicator of future fiscal pressure.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/8eddfa18-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 7
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Cardiac arrest or dizzy spell : why is world trade so weak and what can policy do about it? (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD economic policy paper no. 18 (September 2016)
    Serie: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.18
    Schlagwort(e): Finanzkrise ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Betriebliche Wertschöpfung ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently. There are both structural and cyclical reasons for the slowdown. A deceleration in the rate of trade liberalisation post 2000 was initially obscured by the ongoing expansion of global value chains and associated rapid emergence of China in the world economy. Post the financial crisis global value chains started to unwind and, possibly associated with this, Chinese and Asian trade weakened markedly. These structural changes were compounded by insipid demand due to anaemic growth of global investment, as well as intra-euro area trade, both of which are trade intensive. The slowdown in world trade growth post crisis, if sustained, will have serious consequences for the medium-term growth of productivity and living standards. Trade policy has significant potential to reinvigorate trade growth but the political environment for reforms is difficult, with a growing polarisation of OECD electorates into pro- and anti- globalisation supporters. Further trade and investment policy liberalisation should be introduced as part of a wider package of structural reforms to spread the benefits of freer trade and investment more widely.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlr2h45q532-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 8
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The use of models in producing OECD macroeconomic forecasts (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1336
    Schlagwort(e): Wirtschaftsprognose ; Prognoseverfahren ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: This paper firstly describes the role of models in producing OECD global macroeconomic forecasts; secondly, reviews the OECD's forecasting track record; and finally, considers the relationship between forecast performance and models. OECD forecasts are not directly generated from a single global model, but instead rely heavily on expert judgment which is informed by inputs from a range of different models, with forecasts subjected to repeated peer review. For the major OECD economies, current year GDP growth forecasts exhibit a number of desirable properties including that they are unbiased, outperform naïve forecasts and mostly identify turning points. Moreover, there is a trend improvement in current-year forecasting performance which is partly attributed to the increasing use of high frequency ‘now-casting’ indicator models to forecast the current and next quarter’s GDP. Conversely, the track record of one-year-ahead forecasts is much less impressive; such forecasts are biased, often little better than naïve forecasts and are poor at anticipating downturns. Forecasts tend to cluster around those from other international organisations and consensus forecasts; it is particularly striking that differences in one-year-ahead forecasts between forecasters are relatively minor in comparison with the size of average errors made by all of them. This may reflect herding behaviour by forecasters as well as the mean reversion properties of models. These weaknesses in forecasting performance beyond the current year underline the importance of increased efforts to use models to characterise the risk distribution around the baseline forecast, including through the increased use of model-based scenario analysis.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlnb59tmdls-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 9
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1294
    Schlagwort(e): Produktionspotenzial ; Produktionsfunktion ; Arbeitsproduktivität ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Finanzkrise ; OECD-Staaten ; Employment ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisions to OECD published estimates of the output gap around the period of the financial crisis have been exceptionally large, with by far the largest contribution to these revisions coming from the labour-efficiency gap. The current paper investigates a modification to the standard OECD production function method for deriving potential output, which involves an additional cyclical adjustment in the derivation of trend labour efficiency. The additional adjustment helps to reduce the occurrence of large end-point revisions and of sign switches between the initial and final estimates of the labour-efficiency gap. The variables which are most often found to be useful in providing this cyclical adjustment of labour efficiency are manufacturing capacity utilisation and the investment share. However, for a few countries additional variables – house prices and credit – have been used to provide the cyclical adjustment, although this raises an issue as to whether the cyclical adjustment should be limited to a core set of variables to ensure the method remains reasonably homogenous across countries. Recent improvements to the specification of the Phillips curve, which imply a tighter fit between the unemployment gap and inflation, should also reduce end-point revisions to the unemployment gap in future.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jm0qwpqmz34-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 10
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Links between weak investment and the slowdown in productivity and potential output growth across the OECD (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1304
    Schlagwort(e): Finanzkrise ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Produktionspotenzial ; Investition ; Kapitalstock ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: The OECD framework for estimating potential output is combined with previous OECD empirical research to analyse the causes of recent weak productivity growth. Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis, the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration in potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. Circumstantial evidence suggests that a misallocation of capital in the pre-crisis period also contributed to the slowdown in capital stock growth, particularly among the most severely affected countries. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, at a time when the use of conventional macro policy instruments has become increasingly constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competitionfriendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlwvz0smq45-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
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