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  • Martin, Will
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (34)
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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Agricultural Study
    Keywords: Agricultural Productivity ; Agricultural Sector Economics ; Agricultural Subsidies ; Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Climate Change and Agriculture ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; International Food Policy Research Institute ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: The report finds that repurposing a portion of government spending on agriculture each year to develop and disseminate more emission-efficient technologies for crops and livestock could reduce overall emissions from agriculture by more than 40 percent. Meanwhile, millions of hectares of land could be restored to natural habitats. The economic payoffs to this type of repurposing would be large. Redirecting about USD 70 billion a year, equivalent to one percent of global agricultural output, would yield a net benefit of over USD 2 trillion in 20 years
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: To understand the impacts of support programs on global emissions, this paper considers the impacts of domestic subsidies, price distortions at the border, and investments in emission-reducing technologies on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. It uses a counterfactual global model scenario showing how much emissions from agricultural production would change if agricultural support were abolished worldwide. The analysis indicates that, without subsidies paid directly to farmers, output of emission-intensive activities and emissions would be smaller. Without trade protection, however, emissions would be higher. This is because protection reduces global demand more than it increases supply, and partly because some countries that currently tax agriculture have high emission intensities. Policies that directly reduce emission intensities yield much larger reductions in emissions than those targeting overall productivity growth to reduce emissions because of the rebound effect. Scenario analysis to understand the impacts of repurposed agricultural policy and support measures on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change is being undertaken in subsequent work, which will also take account of land-use change and alternative forms of agricultural support to align objectives of food security, farmers' income security, production efficiency and resilience, and environmental protection
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Martin, Will Estimating the Gravity Model When Zero Trade Flows are Frequent and Economically Determined
    Abstract: Science and Technology Development
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fukase, Emiko Economic Implications of a Potential Free Trade Agreement between India and the United States
    Abstract: This paper explores the economic implications of a potential free trade agreement between India and the United States. A series of simulations is conducted assuming 100 percent ad valorem equivalent tariff cuts for goods and 50 percent cuts for services. The overall impacts are likely to be positive for the United States and India. While gains from trade creation are offset by trade diversion on the import side, both countries appear to gain from improved access on the export side. The United States is likely to gain largely through terms of trade improvements for its goods and services, as initial protection in India is particularly high. India would experience an expansion of exports and output, especially in textiles and apparel. As the United States and India are negotiating other free trade agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and India's agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the paper also explores how the effects of an India-United States free trade agreement are affected by prior free trade agreements. Adding an India-United States free trade agreement to prior agreements tends to bring additional welfare benefits to both countries. India would also gain substantially if it concluded a free trade agreement with the United States and then extended it to other partners. The results suggest that an India-United States free trade agreement might become a building block toward more liberal trade regimes
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Laborde, David Formulas for Failure? Were the Doha Tariff Formulas too Ambitious for Success?
    Abstract: Finance and Financial Sector Development
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fukase, Emiko Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century?
    Keywords: Ernährungssicherung ; China
    Abstract: This paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. Although demand for food calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between income growth and food demand with data from a wide range of countries, China's demand growth appears to have been broadly similar to the global trend. On the supply side, output of food depends strongly on the productivity growth associated with income growth and on the country's agricultural land endowment, with China appearing to be an out-performer. The analyses of income-consumption-production dynamics suggest that China's current income level falls in the range where consumption growth outstrips production growth, but that the gap is likely to begin to decline as China's population growth and dietary transition slow down. Continued agricultural productivity growth through further investment in research and development, and expansion in farm size and increased mechanization, as well as sustainable management of agricultural resources, are vital for ensuring that it is primarily China that will feed China in the 21st century
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ivanic, Maros Poverty Impacts of the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism
    Abstract: The volume-based Special Safeguard Mechanism was proposed as essential for small, poor farmers and became the proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha Agenda negotiations in 2008. But is it helpful for these farmers, given that it is likely to be applied when farm output is depressed and many poor farmers in developing countries need to buy food? Stochastic simulations for 31 countries suggest that use of this safeguard in line with the proposed World Trade Organization rules would raise the world poverty headcount by an average of 24 million. The adverse poverty impact of the duty is larger when the quantity safeguard is triggered than it would be in other years, because lower farm output levels reduce or reverse the benefits to poor farm households from higher prices
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Larson, Donald F Agricultural Policies and Trade Paths in Turkey
    Abstract: In 1959, shortly after the European Economic Community was founded under the 1957 Treaty of Rome, Turkey applied for Associate Membership in the then six-member common market. By 1963, a path for integrating the economies of Turkey and the eventual European Union had been mapped. As with many trade agreements, agriculture posed difficult political hurdles, which were never fully cleared, even as trade barriers to other sectors were eventually removed and a Customs Union formed. This essay traces the influences the Turkey-European Union economic institutions have had on agricultural policies and the agriculture sector. An applied general equilibrium framework is used to provide estimates of what including agriculture under the Customs Union would mean for the sector and the economy. The paper also discusses the implications of fully aligning Turkey's agricultural policies with the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy, as would be required under full membership
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ivanic, Maros Short- and Long-Run Impacts of Food Price Changes on Poverty
    Abstract: This study uses household models based on detailed expenditure and agricultural production data from 31 developing countries to assess the impacts of changes in global food prices on poverty in individual countries and for the world as a whole. The analysis finds that food price increases unrelated to productivity changes in developing countries raise poverty in the short run in all but a few countries with broadly-distributed agricultural resources. This result is primarily because the poor spend large shares of their incomes on food and many poor farmers are net buyers of food. In the longer run, two other important factors come into play: poor workers are likely to benefit from increases in wage rates for unskilled workers from higher food prices, and poor farmers are likely to benefit from higher agricultural profits as they raise their output. As a result, higher food prices appear to lower global poverty in the long run
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anderson, Kym Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty
    Abstract: This paper has two purposes. It first considers the impact on world food prices of the changes in restrictions on trade in staple foods during the 2008 world food price crisis. Those changes-reductions in import protection or increases in export restraints-were meant to partially insulate domestic markets from the spike in international prices. The authors find that this insulation added substantially to the spike in international prices for rice, wheat, maize, and oilseeds. As a result, although domestic prices rose less than they would have without insulation in some developing countries, in many other countries they rose more than they would have in the absence of such insulation. The paper's second purpose it to estimate the combined impact of such insulating behavior on poverty in various developing countries and globally. The analysis finds that the actual poverty-reducing impact of insulation is much less than its apparent impact, and that its net effect was to increase global poverty in 2008 by 8 million people, although this increase was not significantly different from zero. Since there are domestic policy instruments, such as conditional cash transfers, that could now provide social protection for the poor far more efficiently and equitably than variations in border restrictions, the authors suggest it is time to seek a multilateral agreement to desist from changing restrictions on trade when international food prices spike
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Laborde, David Agricultural Trade
    Abstract: This survey concludes that including agriculture in the Doha Agenda negotiations was important both economically and politically, although the political resistance to reform is particularly strong in this sector. While agriculture accounts for less than 10 percent of merchandise trade, high and variable agricultural distortions appear to cause the majority of the cost of distortions to global merchandise trade. Within agriculture, most of the costs appear to arise from trade barriers levied on imports since these barriers tend to be high, variable across time and over products, and are levied by a wide range of countries. The negotiations faced a need for balance between discipline in reducing tariffs and hence creating the market access gains that are central to the negotiations, and flexibility in managing political pressures. While the approach of providing flexibility on a certain percentage of tariff lines is seriously flawed, the proposed Modalities still appear to provide worthwhile market access. Better ways appear to be needed to deal with developing countries' concerns about food price volatility while reducing the collective-action problems resulting from price insulation
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hoekman, Bernard Reducing Distortions in International Commodity Markets
    Abstract: Global commodity markets are affected by a variety of government policies that may expand or lower overall supply and as a result affect world prices for the specific products concerned. Market failures and market structures (market power along the value chain) also affect supply. This paper briefly reviews a number of factors that may distort international commodity markets with a view to identifying elements of an agenda for multilateral cooperation to reduce such distortions. Much of the policy agenda that arises is domestic and requires action by national governments. But numerous policies - or absence of policy - generate international spillovers that call for the negotiation of international policy disciplines. Independent of whether distortions are local or international in scope, the complexity of prevailing market structures and their impacts on efficiency call for much greater monitoring and analysis by the international community
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Laborde, David Measuring the Impacts of Global Trade Reform with Optimal Aggregators of Distortions
    Keywords: Internationale Wirtschaft ; Reform ; Handelsliberalisierung ; Außenhandel ; Handelseffekt ; Wohlfahrtsanalyse ; Sensitivitätsanalyse ; Welt
    Abstract: Traditional weighted-average measures of trade distortions are widely used in analyzing global and regional reforms, despite well-known deficiencies. This paper develops and applies optimal aggregators for the real-world case of multiple countries and commodities with much more detailed information on trade than on production and consumption. The approach reflects the fact that different aggregators are needed for expenditure on imported goods and for tariff revenues, and allows for incorporation of both intensive and extensive margins of adjustment to reform. Applications confirm that the technique is straightforward enough for widespread use, and point to close to a doubling of the welfare gains at the intensive margin when using the highest possible level of international commodity disaggregation, with larger gains in developing regions than in the industrial countries. The measured income gains increase along the entire path of liberalization, with slightly larger increases in the earlier stages, where the gaps between the responses of the expenditure and tariff revenue aggregators are largest. Sensitivity analysis suggests that, for global trade reform, the ease of substitution between tariff lines is much more important than that between varieties from different countries
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Laborde, David Implications of the Doha Market Access Proposals for Developing Countries
    Abstract: This paper uses detailed data on bound and applied tariffs to assess the consequences of the World Trade Organization's December 2008 Modalities for tariffs levied and faced by developing countries, and the welfare implications of these reforms. The authors find that the tiered formula for agriculture would halve tariffs in industrial countries and lower them more modestly in developing countries. In non-agriculture, the formulas would reduce the tariff peaks facing developing countries and cut average industrial country tariffs by more than a third. The authors use a political-economy framework to assess the implications of flexibilities for the size of the tariff cuts and find they are likely to substantially reduce the outcome. However, despite the flexibilities, there are likely to be worthwhile gains, with applied tariffs facing developing countries cut by about 20 percent in agriculture and 27 percent in non-agriculture, and sizeable cuts in tariffs facing industrial countries. The welfare impacts of reform are evaluated using a new approach to aggregation that improves on the traditional, flawed approach of weighted-average tariffs. This substantially increases the estimated benefits of an agreement along the lines of these modalities, with estimated global income gains of up to
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anderson, Kym Would freeing up world trade reduce poverty and inequality?
    Keywords: 1980-2005 ; Agraraußenhandel ; Handelsliberalisierung ; Agrarpreis ; Agrareinkommen ; Armut ; Soziale Ungleichheit ; Welt
    Abstract: Trade policy reforms in recent decades have sharply reduced the distortions that were harming agriculture in de/veloping countries, yet global trade in farm products continues to be far more distorted than trade in nonfarm goods. Those distortions reduce some forms of poverty and inequality but worsen others, so the net effects are unclear without empirical modeling. This paper summarizes a series of new economy-wide global and national empirical studies that focus on the net effects of the remaining distortions to world merchandise trade on poverty and inequality globally and in various developing countries. The global LINKAGE model results suggest that removing those remaining distortions would reduce international inequality, largely by boosting net farm incomes and raising real wages for unskilled workers in developing countries, and would reduce the number of poor people worldwide by 3 percent. The analysis based on the Global Trade Analysis Project model for a sample of 15 countries, and nine stand-alone national case studies, all point to larger reductions in poverty, especially if only the non-poor are subjected to increased income taxation to compensate for the loss of trade tax revenue
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ivanic, Maros Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010-11 Surge in Food Prices
    Abstract: Global food prices have increased substantially since mid-2010, as have prices in many developing countries. In this study we assess the poverty impact of the price changes between June and December 2010 in twenty-eight low and middle income countries. This is done by gathering detailed information on individual households' food production and consumption levels for thirty-eight agricultural and food commodities to assess the impacts on household welfare. This study estimates that this sudden food price surge increased the number of poor people globally, but with considerably different impacts in different countries. The heterogeneity of these impacts is partly related to the wide variation in the transmission of global prices to local prices and partly to differences in households' patterns of production and consumption. On balance, the adverse welfare impact on net buyers outweighs the benefits to net sellers resulting in an increase in the number of poor and in the depth of poverty. We estimate that the average poverty change was 1.1 percentage points in low income countries and 0.7 percentage points in middle income countries with a net increase of 44 million people falling below the
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  • 17
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (21 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms
    Abstract: For individual countries, variable trade barriers can be used to reduce the volatility of domestic relative to world prices. If this is done by countries accounting for a large share of the market, its effect is offset by increases in world price volatility. This study shows the nature of the resulting collective action problem, with the policy being ineffective on average in stabilizing domestic prices while increasing the volatility of the income transfers from terms-of-trade changes. A simple approach to assessing the contribution of insulation to the price increases is developed and used with new estimates of agricultural distortions to assess its contribution to the price spikes in 1972-74 and 2006-08 for rice and wheat. The analysis suggests that 45 percent of the increase in rice prices in 2006-08, and 30 percent of the increase in wheat prices, was due to insulating behavior. One sign of progress since 1972-74 was a substantial reduction in the extent of price-insulating behavior by the industrial countries. This provides little stabilizing benefit in the rice market because countries not classifying themselves at the World Trade Organization as developing account for only 3 percent of world rice consumption. But it does offer some benefit for the wheat market where non-developing countries account for 27 percent of consumption
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin , Justin Yifu The financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture
    Abstract: The financial crisis arose in the industrial countries, but has affected developing countries through higher interest rates, sharp changes in commodity prices, and reductions in investment, trade, migration and remittances. For most low-income countries, shocks that affect food prices or wage rates for unskilled workers seem likely to have the largest impact on poverty, with the declines in key food prices associated with the crisis helping to reduce poverty, while declining trade, investment, and remittance flows have had adverse impacts on the poor. Policies to address the crisis must include measures to deal with financial sector problems, the resulting reductions in aggregate demand, and the particular vulnerabilities of poor people. Given the complexity of the impacts from financial crises and commodity price shocks, there is a strong case for developing better social safety net policies that can offset the adverse impacts of a wide range of different shocks on poor people without creating costly market distortions
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Laborde, David Formulas and Flexibility in Trade Negotiations
    Abstract: Many trade negotiations involve large cuts in high tariffs, with flexibilities allowing much smaller cuts for an agreed number of politically-sensitive products. The effects of these flexibilities on market access opportunities are difficult to predict, creating particular problems for developing countries in assessing whether to support a proposed agreement. Some widely-used ad hoc approaches to identifying likely sensitive products - such as the highest-bound-tariff rule - suggest that the impacts of a limited number of such exceptions on average tariffs and on market access are likely to be minor. This paper uses a rigorous specification based on the apparent objectives of policy makers in setting the pre-negotiation tariff. Applying this approach with detailed data allows the authors to assess the implications of sensitive-product provisions for average agricultural tariffs, economic welfare, and market access under the Doha negotiations. The authors conclude that highest-tariff rules are likely to seriously underestimate the impacts on average tariffs, and that treating even 2 percent of tariff lines as sensitive is likely to have a sharply adverse impact on economic welfare. The impacts on market access are also adverse, but much smaller, perhaps reflecting the mercantilist focus of the negotiating process
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hertel, Thomas W Potential Implications of A Special Safeguard Mechanism in the WTO
    Abstract: The Special Safeguard Mechanism was a key issue in the July 2008 failure to reach agreement in the World Trade Organization negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda. It includes both price and quantity-triggered measures. This paper uses a stochastic simulation model of the world wheat market to investigate the effects of policy makers implementing policies based on the Special Safeguard Mechanism rules. As expected, implementation of the quantity-triggered measures is found to reduce imports, raise domestic prices, and boost mean domestic production in the Special Safeguard Mechanism regions. However, rather than insulating countries that use it from price volatility, it would actually increase domestic price volatility in developing countries, largely by restricting imports when domestic output is low and prices high. This paper estimates that implementation of the quantity-triggered measures would shrink average wheat imports by nearly 50 percent in some regions, with world wheat trade falling by 4.7 percent. The price measures discriminate against low price exporters - many of whom are developing countries - and tend to increase producer price instability
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anderson, James E Costs of taxation and benefits of public goods with multiple taxes and goods
    Abstract: The recent public economics literature involves an apparent consensus that income effects reduce the costs of raising revenues and hence increase the desirable level of public good provision. Higher taxes can indeed reduce the demand for leisure - and hence increase the supply of taxed labor - through income effects. However, the consensus is wrong because the income effects of taxes must be considered symmetrically with those from provision of public goods. This paper uses a model with multiple public goods and taxes to derive consistent measures of the marginal benefits of publicly-provided goods and their marginal social costs. With this model, the authors show that either compensated approaches excluding these income effects or uncompensated approaches including them may be used. If an uncompensated measure of the marginal cost of funds is used, however, the benefits of providing public goods should be adjusted with a simple, benefit multiplier not previously seen in the literature. Once this is done, the optimal level of public provision is independent of whether compensated or uncompensated approaches are used. Proper accounting for these income effects - or their omission using a compensated approach - appears to substantially raise the hurdle for government provision where there are substantial taxes bearing on labor
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ianchovichina, Elena Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Other Asian Giant
    Abstract: Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a baseline projection using a global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements associated with higher energy prices - a quite different channel of effect from that for many developing countries that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into account the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India, the gains to Russia increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Reforms in recent decades have sharply reduced the distortions affecting agriculture in developing countries, particularly by cuts to agricultural export taxes and by some reductions in government assistance to agriculture in high-income countries, but international trade in farm products continues to be far more distorted than trade in nonfarm goods. This paper summarizes a series of empirical studies that focus on the effects of the remaining distortions to world merchandise trade for poverty and inequality, especially in developing countries. To obtain different insights into the various impacts, two global studies are undertaken using the World Bank's Linkage model, one multi-country study uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, and ten country case studies are also included, each using a national economy-wide model. The Linkage model results suggest that liberalization will reduce international inequality, largely by boosting farm incomes and raising real wages for unskilled workers in developing countries, and will reduce the number of poor people worldwide by 3 percent. The analysis based on the GTAP model for a sample of 15 countries, and the ten stand-alone national case studies, all point to larger reductions in poverty, especially if only the non-poor are subjected to increased income taxation to compensate for the loss of trade tax revenue
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  • 24
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hoekman, Bernard Conclude Doha
    Abstract: The Doha Round must be concluded not because it will produce dramatic liberalization but because it will create greater security of market access. Its conclusion would strengthen, symbolically and substantively, the WTO’s valuable role in restraining protectionism in the current downturn. What is on the table would constrain the scope for tariff protection in all goods, ban agricultural export subsidies in the industrial countries and sharply reduce the scope for distorting domestic support - by 70 per cent in the EU and 60 per cent in the US. Average farm tariffs that exporters face would fall to 12 per cent (from 14.5 per cent) and the tariffs on exports of manufactures to less than 2.5 per cent (from about 3 per cent). There are also environmental benefits to be captured, in particular disciplining the use of subsidies that encourage over-fishing and lowering tariffs on technologies that can help mitigate global warming. An agreement to facilitate trade by cutting red tape will further expand trade opportunities. Greater market access for the least-developed countries will result from the "duty free and quota free" proposal and their ability to take advantage of new opportunities will be enhanced by the Doha-related "aid for trade" initiative. Finally, concluding Doha would create space for multilateral cooperation on critical policy matters that lie outside the Doha Agenda, most urgently the trade policy implications of climate change mitigation
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  • 25
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: This chapter begins with a brief summary of economic growth and structural changes in the region since the 1950s and of agricultural and other economic policies as they affected agriculture before and after the various reforms, and in several cases fundamental regime changes, of the past half-century. It then summarizes new estimates of the nominal rate of assistance (NRA) and the relative rate of assistance (RRA) to farmers delivered by national farm and nonfarm policies over the past several decades (depending on data availability), and of those policies' impacts on consumer prices of farm products. Both farmer assistance and consumer taxation is negative in periods where there is an anti-agricultural, pro-urban consumer bias in a country's policy regime. The final sections summarize what the author have learned and draw out implications of the findings, including for poverty and inequality and for possible future directions of policies affecting agricultural incentives in this part of Asia
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (45 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Anderson, Kym Measuring Distortions To Agricultural Incentives, Revisited
    Keywords: Agribusiness ; Agricultural Incentives ; Agricultural markets ; Agricultural policy ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export ; Farm ; Farm products ; Farmers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Import tariffs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Quantitative restrictions ; Agribusiness ; Agricultural Incentives ; Agricultural markets ; Agricultural policy ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export ; Farm ; Farm products ; Farmers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Import tariffs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Quantitative restrictions ; Agribusiness ; Agricultural Incentives ; Agricultural markets ; Agricultural policy ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export ; Farm ; Farm products ; Farmers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Import tariffs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Quantitative restrictions
    Abstract: Notwithstanding the tariffication component of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, import tariffs on farm products continue to provide an incomplete indication of the extent to which agricultural producer and consumer incentives are distorted in national markets. Especially in developing countries, non-agricultural policies indirectly impact agricultural and food markets. Empirical analysis aimed at monitoring distortions to agricultural incentives thus need to examine both agricultural and non-agricultural policy measures including import or export taxes, subsidies and quantitative restrictions, plus domestic taxes or subsidies on farm outputs or inputs and consumer subsidies for food staples. This paper addresses the practical methodological issues that need to be faced when attempting to undertake such a measurement task in developing countries. The approach is illustrated in two ways: by presenting estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers in China for the period 1981 to 2005; and by summarizing estimates from an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of the effects on agricultural versus non-agricultural markets of the project's measured distortions globally as of 2004
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: This paper outlines the methodological issues associated with the task of measuring that actual delivered direct protection or taxation to individual agricultural industries, as well as the direct protection or anti-protection to non-agricultural sectors. It begins with a guide to what elements in principle could be measured. There are two key purposes of the distortion estimates being generated by this project are: 1) to provide a long annual time series of indicators showing the extent to which price incentives faced by farmers and food consumers have been distorted directly and indirectly by own-government policies in all major developing, transition and high-income countries, and hence for the world as a whole; and 2) to attribute the price distortion estimates for each farm product to specific border or domestic policy measures, so they can serve as inputs into various types of partial and general equilibrium economic models for estimating the effects of those various policies on such things as national and international agricultural markets, farm value added, income inequality, poverty, and national, regional and global welfare
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (57 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ivanic, Maros Implications of Higher Global Food Prices For Poverty In Low-Income Countries
    Keywords: Food Prices ; Food commodities ; Food consumers ; Impact on poverty ; Income ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Poor ; Poor countries ; Poor households ; Poor people ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty rates ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Food Prices ; Food commodities ; Food consumers ; Impact on poverty ; Income ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Poor ; Poor countries ; Poor households ; Poor people ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty rates ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Food Prices ; Food commodities ; Food consumers ; Impact on poverty ; Income ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Poor ; Poor countries ; Poor households ; Poor people ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty rates ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real-world data. Results using household data for ten observations on nine low-income countries show that the short-run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially
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  • 29
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Anderson, Kym Global Impacts Of Doha Trade Reform Scenarios On Poverty
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Base Year ; Benchmark ; Constant Returns To Scale ; Consumers ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Real Income ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reforms ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Uruguay Round ; Utility ; WTO ; Wages ; Welfare ; Agriculture ; Base Year ; Benchmark ; Constant Returns To Scale ; Consumers ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Real Income ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reforms ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Uruguay Round ; Utility ; WTO ; Wages ; Welfare ; Agriculture ; Base Year ; Benchmark ; Constant Returns To Scale ; Consumers ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Real Income ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reforms ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Uruguay Round ; Utility ; WTO ; Wages ; Welfare
    Abstract: The authors illustrate some of the potential consequences of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, they estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform
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  • 30
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will Economic Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization
    Keywords: Base Year ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reform ; World Trade Organization ; Base Year ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reform ; World Trade Organization ; Base Year ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reform ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: Ianchovichina and Martin present estimates of the impact of accession by China and Chinese Taipei to the World Trade Organization. China is estimated to be the biggest beneficiary, followed by Chinese Taipei and their major trading partners. Accession will boost the labor-intensive manufacturing sectors in China, especially the textiles and apparel sector that will benefit directly from the removal of quotas on textiles and apparel exports to North America and Western Europe. Consequently, developing economies competing with China in third markets may suffer relatively small losses. China has already benefited from the reforms undertaken between 1995 and 2001 (US
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  • 31
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ianchovichina, Elena Trade Liberalization in China's Accession to the World Trade Organization
    Keywords: Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Influence ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: (June 2001) - China's forthcoming access to the World Trade Organization involves reform in many sectors, both domestic and trade-related. The starting point for reform is a partially reformed economy with relatively high import duties, in which export sectors benefit from liberal duty exemptions on inputs. Both China and its major trading partners will gain from access—with China gaining most (perhaps half of the estimated
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will The Effect of the United States' Granting Most Favored Nation Status to Vietnam
    Keywords: Agribusiness and Markets ; Agricultural Commodities ; Apparel ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; Exporters ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Free Trade ; General Equilibrium Model ; High Tariffs ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Metal Products ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Tariff ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Agribusiness and Markets ; Agricultural Commodities ; Apparel ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; Exporters ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Free Trade ; General Equilibrium Model ; High Tariffs ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Metal Products ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Tariff ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: November 1999 - If the United States grants Vietnam most favored nation status, both countries would benefit. Vietnamese exports to the United States would more than double, and Vietnam would gain substantial welfare benefits from improved market access and increased availability of imports. For the United States, lowering the current high tariffs against Vietnam would improve welfare by reducing costly diversion away from Vietnamese products. Since the U.S. embargo on trade with Vietnam was lifted in 1994, exports from Vietnam to the United States have risen dramatically. However, Vietnam remains one of the few countries to which the United States has not yet granted most favored nation (MFN) status. The general tariff rates that the United States imposes average 35 percent compared with 4.9 percent for the MFN rate. Granting MFN status to Vietnam would improve its terms of trade and help improve the efficiency of resource allocation in the country. Better access to the U.S. market would increase the volume of Vietnamese exports to the United States and the prices received for them while also reducing their costs to U.S. users. Fukase and Martin use a computable general equilibrium model to examine the effects of reducing U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese imports from general rates to MFN rates. They estimate tariff changes using the U.S. tariff schedule for 1997 weighted by Vietnam's exports to the United States. The results suggest that after a change to MFN status for Vietnam, its exports to the United States would more than double, from the 1996 baseline of
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (70 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area
    Keywords: Access ; Capital Goods ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Industries ; Domestic Production ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Factor Endowments ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Import Competition ; Intermediate Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Openness ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tariff ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regime ; Unilateral Liberalization ; Access ; Capital Goods ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Industries ; Domestic Production ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Factor Endowments ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Import Competition ; Intermediate Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Openness ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tariff ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regime ; Unilateral Liberalization
    Abstract: November 1999 - The static economic benefits of Vietnam's accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) are likely to be relatively small. The gains from increased access to ASEAN markets would be small, and they would be offset by the costs of trade diversion on the import side. But binding commitments on protection rates under the AFTA plan could provide an important stepping stone to more beneficial broader liberalization. Vietnam's accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) has been an important step in its integration into the world economy. Fukase and Martin use a multiregion, multisector computable general equilibrium model to evaluate how different trade liberalization policies of Vietnam and its main trading partners affect Vietnam's welfare, taking into account the simultaneous impacts on trade, output, and industrial structure. They conclude that: · The static economywide effects of the AFTA liberalization to which Vietnam is currently committed are small. On the import side, the exclusion of a series of products from the AFTA commitments appears to limit the scope of trade creation, and the discriminatory nature of AFTA liberalization would divert Vietnam's trade from non-ASEAN members. · Vietnam's small initial exports to ASEAN make the gains from improved access to partner markets relatively modest. Since Singapore dominates Vietnam's ASEAN exports and initial protection in Singapore is close to zero, there are few gains from preferred status in this market. · When Vietnam extends its AFTA commitments to all of its trading partners on a most favored nation basis, its welfare increases substantially - partly because of the greater extent of liberalization, partly because the broader liberalization undoes the costly trade diversion created by the initial discriminatory liberalization, and finally because of the more efficient allocation of resources among Vietnam's industries. · AFTA, APEC, and unilateral liberalizations affect Vietnam's industries in different ways. AFTA appears to benefit Vietnam's agriculture by improving its access to the ASEAN market. · Broad unilateral liberalization beyond AFTA is likely to shift labor away from agriculture and certain import-competing activities toward relatively labor-intensive manufacturing. Reduced costs for intermediate inputs will benefit domestic production. These sectors conform to Vietnam's current comparative advantage, and undertaking broad unilateral liberalization now seems a promising way to facilitate the subsequent development of competitive firms in more capital- and skill-intensive sectors. By contrast, more intense import competition may lead some import substitution industries (now dependent on protection) to contract. · The higher level of welfare resulting from more comprehensive liberalization implies that the sectoral protection currently given to capital-intensive and strategic industries is imposing substantial implicit taxes on the rest of the economy. · All the above suggests that AFTA should be treated as an important initial step toward broader liberalization. Binding international commitments in AFTA and, in due course, at the World Trade Organization can provide a credible signal of Vietnam's commitment to open trade policies that will help stimulate the upgrading of existing firms and investment in efficient and dynamic firms. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - was prepared as part of the AFTA Expansion Project in collaboration with the East Asia and Pacific Region. The authors may be contacted at efukaseworldbank.org or wmartin1@worldbank.org
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  • 34
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions through Joint Implementation of Projects
    Keywords: Abatement Options ; Activities ; Approach ; Carbon Dioxide ; Carbon Dioxide Emissions ; Carbon Emissions ; Carbon Policy and Trading ; Certified Project Activity ; Emission ; Emission Reduction ; Energy ; Energy ; Energy Production and Transportation ; Energy Products ; Energy Sources ; Energy Use ; Energy and Environment ; Environment ; Environment and Energy Efficiency ; Fuel ; Fuels ; Global Greenhouse Gas ; Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions ; Greenhouse Gases ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Price ; Prices ; Public Sector Development ; Transport ; Transport and Environment ; Abatement Options ; Activities ; Approach ; Carbon Dioxide ; Carbon Dioxide Emissions ; Carbon Emissions ; Carbon Policy and Trading ; Certified Project Activity ; Emission ; Emission Reduction ; Energy ; Energy ; Energy Production and Transportation ; Energy Products ; Energy Sources ; Energy Use ; Energy and Environment ; Environment ; Environment and Energy Efficiency ; Fuel ; Fuels ; Global Greenhouse Gas ; Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions ; Greenhouse Gases ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Price ; Prices ; Public Sector Development ; Transport ; Transport and Environment
    Abstract: June 2000 - Most proposals for joint implementation of energy projects emphasize installing more technically efficient capital equipment to allow reduced energy use for any given mix of input and output. But increases in energy efficiency are likely to have second-round effects. Reducing energy demand, for example, will reduce the market price of energy and stimulate energy use, partially offsetting the initial reduction in demand. These effects are likely to be substantially larger in the long run, reducing the magnitude of these offsets. Efficient reduction of carbon dioxide emissions requires coordination of international efforts. Approaches proposed include carbon taxes, emission quotas, and jointly implemented energy projects. To reduce emissions efficiently requires equalizing the marginal costs of reduction between countries. The apparently large differentials between the costs of reducing emissions in industrial and developing countries implies a great potential for lowering the costs of reducing emissions by focusing on projects in developing countries. Most proposals for joint implementation of energy projects emphasize installing more technically efficient capital equipment, to allow reductions in energy use for any given mix of input and output. But such increases in efficiency are likely to have potentially important second-round impacts: · Lowering the relative effective price of specific energy products. · Lowering the price of energy relative to other inputs. · Lowering the price of energy-intensive products relative to other products. Martin explores the consequences of these second-round impacts and suggests ways to deal with them in practical joint-implementation projects. For example, the direct impact of reducing the effective price of a fuel is to increase consumption of that fuel. Generally, substitution effects also reduce the use of other fuels, and the emissions generated from them. If the fuel whose efficiency is being improved is already the least emission-intensive, the combined impact of these price effects is most likely to be favorable. If the fuel whose efficiency is being improved is initially the most emission-intensive, the combined impact of these price changes is less likely to be favorable and may even increase emissions. In the example Martin uses, increase in coal use efficiency was completely ineffective in reducing emissions because it resulted in emission-intensive coal being substituted for less polluting oil and gas. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand key links between trade and the environment. The author may be contacted at wmartin1worldbank.org
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