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  • Kraay, Aart
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (31)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A New Distribution Sensitive Index for Measuring Welfare, Poverty, and Inequality (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kraay, Aart A New Distribution Sensitive Index for Measuring Welfare, Poverty, and Inequality
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Inequality Index ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Index ; Poverty Informatics ; Poverty Reduction ; Shared Prosperity ; Welfare Index
    Abstract: Simple welfare indices such as mean income are ubiquitous but not distribution sensitive. In contrast, existing distribution sensitive welfare indices are rarely used, often because they are difficult to explain and/or lack intuitive units. This paper proposes a simple new distribution sensitive welfare index with intuitive units: the average factor by which individual incomes must be multiplied to attain a given reference level of income. This new index is subgroup decomposable with population weights and satisfies the three main definitions of distribution sensitivity in the literature. Variants on this index can be used as distribution sensitive poverty measures and as inequality measures, with the same simple intuitive units. The properties of the new index are illustrated using the global distribution of income across individuals between 1990 and 2019, as well as with selected country comparisons. Finally, the index can be used to define the "prosperity gap" as a proposed new measure of "shared prosperity," one of the twin goals of the World Bank
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10470
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Approximating Income Distribution Dynamics Using Aggregate Data (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kraay, Aart Approximating Income Distribution Dynamics Using Aggregate Data
    Abstract: This paper proposes a methodology to approximate individual income distribution dynamics using only time series data on aggregate moments of the income distribution. Under the assumption that individual incomes follow a lognormal autoregressive process, this paper shows that the evolution over time of the mean and standard deviation of log income across individuals provides sufficient information to place upper and lower bounds on the degree of mobility in the income distribution. The paper demonstrates that these bounds are reasonably informative, using the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics where the panel structure of the data allows us to compare measures of mobility directly estimated from the micro data with approximations based only on aggregate data. Bounds on mobility are estimated for a large cross-section of countries, using data on aggregate moments of the income distribution available in the World Wealth and Income Database and the World Bank's PovcalNet database. The estimated bounds on mobility imply that conventional anonymous growth rates of the bottom 40 percent (top 10 percent) that do not account for mobility substantially understate (overstate) the expected growth performance of those initially in the bottom 40 percent (top 10 percent)
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8123
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Predicting Conflict (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Celiku, Bledi Predicting Conflict
    Abstract: This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the performance of conventional approaches based on predicted probabilities generated by binary response regressions and random forests with two unconventional classification algorithms. The unconventional algorithms are calibrated specifically to minimize a prediction loss function penalizing Type 1 and Type 2 errors: (1) an algorithm that selects linear combinations of correlates of conflict to minimize the prediction loss function, and (2) an algorithm that chooses a set of thresholds for the same variables, together with the number of breaches of thresholds that constitute a prediction of conflict, that minimize the prediction loss function. The paper evaluates the predictive power of these approaches in a set of conflict and non-conflict episodes constructed from a large country-year panel of developing countries since 1977, and finds substantial differences in the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of these alternative algorithms. The threshold classifier has the best overall predictive performance, and moreover has advantages in simplicity and transparency that make it well suited for policy-making purposes. The paper explores the implications of these findings for the World Bank's classification of fragile and conflict-affected states
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8075
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  • 4
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    Good Countries or Good Projects? : Comparing Macro and Micro Correlates of World Bank and Asian Development Bank Project Performance (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bulman, David Good Countries or Good Projects?
    Abstract: This paper examines the micro and macro correlates of aid project outcomes in a sample of 3,821 World Bank projects and 1,342 Asian Development Bank projects. Project outcomes vary much more within countries than between countries: country-level characteristics explain only 10-25 percent of project outcomes. Among macro variables, country growth and the policy environment are significantly positively correlated with project outcomes. Among micro variables, shorter project duration and the presence of additional financing are significantly correlated with better project outcomes. In addition, the track record of the project manager in delivering successful projects is highly significantly correlated with project outcomes. There are few significant differences between the two institutions in the relationship between these variables and project outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7245
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  • 5
    Online Resource
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    Weak Instruments in Growth Regressions : Implications for Recent Cross-Country Evidence on Inequality and Growth (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kraay, Aart Weak Instruments in Growth Regressions: Implications for Recent Cross-Country Evidence on Inequality and Growth
    Abstract: This paper revisits four recent cross-country empirical studies on the effects of inequality on growth. All four studies report strongly significant negative effects, using the popular system generalized method of moments estimator that is frequently used in cross-country growth empirics. This paper shows that the internal instruments relied on by this estimator in these inequality-and-growth regressions are weak, and that weak instrument-consistent confidence sets for the effect of inequality on growth include a wide range of positive and negative values. This suggests that strong conclusions about the effect of inequality on growth- in either direction-cannot be drawn from these studies. This paper also systematically explores a wide range of alternative sets of internal instruments, and finds that problems of weak instruments are pervasive across these alternatives. More generally, the paper illustrates the importance of documenting instrument strength, basing inferences on procedures that are robust to weak instruments, and considering alternative instrument sets when using the system generalized method of moments estimator for cross-country growth empirics
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7494
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  • 6
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    Doing the Survey Two-Step : The Effects of Reticence on Estimates of Corruption in Two-Stage Survey Questions (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Karalashvili, Nona Doing the Survey Two-Step: The Effects of Reticence on Estimates of Corruption in Two-Stage Survey Questions
    Abstract: Education
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7276
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  • 7
    Online Resource
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    Growth, Inequality, and Social Welfare : Cross-Country Evidence (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dollar, David Growth, Inequality, and Social Welfare
    Abstract: Social welfare functions that assign weights to individuals based on their income levels can be used to document the relative importance of growth and inequality changes for changes in social welfare. In a large panel of industrial and developing countries over the past 40 years, most of the cross-country and over-time variation in changes in social welfare is due to changes in average incomes. In contrast, the changes in inequality observed during this period are on average much smaller than changes in average incomes, are uncorrelated with changes in average incomes, and have contributed relatively little to changes in social welfare
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6842
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  • 8
    Online Resource
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    "Crowding in" and the Returns to Government Investment in Low-Income Countries (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Eden, Maya "Crowding in" and the Returns to Government Investment in Low-Income Countries
    Keywords: Öffentliche Investition ; Private Investition ; Verdrängungseffekt ; Return on Investment ; Entwicklungsländer
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of government investment on private investment in a sample of 39 low-income countries. Fluctuations in a predetermined component of disbursements on loans from official creditors to developing country governments are used as an instrument for fluctuations in public investment. The analysis finds evidence of "crowding in": an extra dollar of government investment raises private investment by roughly two dollars, and output by 1.5 dollars. To understand the implications for the return to public investment, a CES production function with public and private capital as inputs is calibrated. For most countries in the sample, the returns to government investment exceed the world interest rate. However, for some countries that already have high government investment rates, the return to further investment is below the world interest rate
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6781
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  • 9
    Online Resource
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    Predicting World Bank Project Outcome Ratings (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Geli, Patricia Predicting World Bank Project Outcome Ratings
    Abstract: A number of recent studies have empirically documented links between characteristics of World Bank projects and their ultimate outcomes as evaluated by the World Bank's Independent Evaluation Group. This paper explores the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of empirical models relating project outcomes to project characteristics observed early in the life of a project. Such models perform better than self-assessments of project performance provided by World Bank staff during the implementation of the project. These findings are applied to the problem of predicting eventual Independent Evaluation Group ratings for currently active projects in the World Bank's portfolio
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7001
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  • 10
    Online Resource
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    Do Poverty Traps Exist? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Do Poverty Traps Exist?
    Abstract: This paper reviews the empirical evidence on the existence of poverty traps, understood as self-reinforcing mechanisms through which poor individuals or countries remain poor. Poverty traps have captured the interest of many development policy makers, because poverty traps provide a theoretically coherent explanation for persistent poverty. They also suggest that temporary policy interventions may have long-term effects on poverty. However, a review of the reduced-form empirical evidence suggests that truly stagnant incomes of the sort predicted by standard models of poverty traps are in fact quite rare. Moreover, the empirical evidence regarding several canonical mechanisms underlying models of poverty traps is mixed
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6835
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  • 11
    Online Resource
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    Growth Still is Good for the Poor (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dollar, David Growth Still is Good for the Poor
    Abstract: Incomes in the poorest two quintiles on average increase at the same rate as overall average incomes. This is because, in a global dataset spanning 118 countries over the past four decades, changes in the share of income of the poorest quintiles are generally small and uncorrelated with changes in average income. The variation in changes in quintile shares is also small relative to the variation in growth in average incomes, implying that the latter accounts for most of the variation in income growth in the poorest quintiles. These findings hold across most regions and time periods and when conditioning on a variety of country-level factors that may matter for growth and inequality changes. This evidence confirms the central importance of economic growth for poverty reduction and illustrates the difficulty of identifying specific macroeconomic policies that are significantly associated with the relative growth rates of those in the poorest quintiles
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6568
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  • 12
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    Misunderestimating Corruption (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Misunderestimating Corruption
    Abstract: Estimates of the extent of corruption rely largely on self-reports of individuals, business managers, and government officials. Yet it is well known that survey respondents are reticent to tell the truth about activities to which social and legal stigma are attached, implying a downward bias in survey-based estimates of corruption. This paper develops a method to estimate the prevalence of reticent behavior, in order to isolate rates of corruption that fully reflect respondent reticence in answering sensitive questions. The method is based on a statistical model of how respondents behave when answering a combination of conventional and random-response survey questions. The responses to these different types of questions reflect three probabilities-that the respondent has done the sensitive act in question, that the respondent exhibits reticence in answering sensitive questions, and that a reticent respondent is not candid in answering any specific sensitive question. These probabilities can be estimated using a method-of-moments estimator. Evidence from the 2010 World Bank Enterprise survey in Peru suggests reticence-adjusted estimates of corruption that are roughly twice as large as indicated by responses to standard questions. Reticence-adjusted estimates of corruption are also substantially higher in a set of ten Asian countries covered in the Gallup World Poll
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6488
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  • 13
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    Aid, Disbursement Delays, and the Real Exchange Rate (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Jarotschkin, Alexandra Aid, Disbursement Delays, and the Real Exchange Rate
    Abstract: Aid donors and recipients have long been concerned that aid inflows may lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and an associated loss of competitiveness. This paper provides new evidence of the dynamic effects of aid on the real exchange rate, using an identification strategy that exploits the long delays between the approval of aid projects and the subsequent disbursements on them. These disbursement delays enable the isolation of a source of variation in aid inflows that is uncorrelated with contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks that may drive both aid and the real exchange rate. Using this predetermined component of aid as an instrument, there is little evidence that aid inflows lead to significant real exchange rate appreciations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6501
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  • 14
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    Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries : Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries
    Abstract: This paper uses a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for public spending that can be used to estimate government spending multipliers. Loans from official creditors (primarily multilateral development banks and bilateral aid agencies) are a major source of financing for government spending in developing countries. These loans typically finance public spending projects that take several years to implement, with multiple disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The long disbursement periods for these loans imply that the bulk of government spending financed by official creditors in a given year reflects loan approval decisions made in many previous years, before current-year macroeconomic shocks are known. Loan-level commitment and disbursement transactions from the World Bank's Debtor Reporting System database are used to isolate a predetermined component of government spending associated with past loan approvals. This can be used as an instrument to estimate spending multipliers for a large sample of 102 developing countries. The one-year government spending multiplier is reasonably-precisely estimated to be around 0.4, and there is some suggestive evidence that multipliers are larger in recessions, in countries less exposed to international trade, and in countries with flexible exchange rate regimes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6099
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  • 15
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    Sovereign Defaults and Expropriations : Empirical Regularities (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Eden, Maya Sovereign Defaults and Expropriations
    Keywords: Staatsbankrott ; Auslandsinvestition ; Enteignung ; Entwicklungsländer
    Abstract: This paper uses a large cross-country dataset to empirically examine factors associated with sovereign defaults on external private creditors and expropriation of foreign direct investments in developing countries since the 1970s. In the long run, sovereign defaults and expropriations are likely to occur in the same countries. In the short run, however, these events are uncorrelated. Defaults are more likely to occur following periods of rapid debt accumulation, when growth is low, and in countries with weak policy performance, and defaults are not strongly persistent over time. In contrast, expropriations are not systematically related to the level of foreign direct investment, to growth, or to policy performance. Expropriations are however less likely under right-wing governments, and are strongly persistent over time. There is also little evidence that a history of recent defaults is associated with expropriations, and vice versa. The paper discusses the implications of these findings for models that emphasize retaliation as means for sustaining sovereign borrowing and foreign investment in equilibrium, as well as the implications for political risk insurance against the two types of events
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6218
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  • 16
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    Good Countries or Good Projects : Macro and Micro Correlates of World Bank Project Performance (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Denizer, Cevdet Good Countries or Good Projects
    Abstract: The authors use data from more than 6,000 World Bank projects evaluated between 1983 and 2009 to investigate macro and micro correlates of project outcomes. They find that country-level "macro" measures of the quality of policies and institutions are very strongly correlated with project outcomes, confirming the importance of country-level performance for the effective use of aid resources. However, a striking feature of the data is that the success of individual development projects varies much more within countries than it does between countries. The authors assemble a large set of project-level "micro" correlates of project outcomes in an effort to explain some of this within-country variation. They find that measures of project size, the extent of project supervision, and evaluation lags are all significantly correlated with project outcomes, as are early-warning indicators that flag problematic projects during the implementation stage. They also find that measures of World Bank project task manager quality matter significantly for the ultimate outcome of projects. They discuss the implications of these findings for donor policies aimed at aid effectiveness
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5646
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  • 17
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    Corruption and Confidence in Public Institutions : Evidence From A Global Survey (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Clausen, Bianca Corruption and Confidence in Public Institutions
    Abstract: Well-functioning institutions matter for economic development. In order to operate effectively, public institutions must also inspire confidence in those they serve. The authors use data from the Gallup World Poll, a unique and very large global household survey, to document a quantitatively large and statistically significant negative correlation between corruption and confidence in public institutions. This suggests an important channel through which corruption can inhibit development by eroding confidence in public institutions. This correlation is robust to the inclusion of a large set of controls for country and respondent-level characteristics, and they show how it can plausibly be interpreted as reflecting at least in part a causal effect from corruption to confidence. The authors also show that individuals with low confidence in institutions exhibit low levels of political participation, show increased tolerance for violent means to achieve political ends, and have a greater desire to "vote with their feet" through emigration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5157
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  • 18
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    Can Disaggregated Indicators Identify Governance Reform Priorities ? (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Can Disaggregated Indicators Identify Governance Reform Priorities ?
    Abstract: Many highly-disaggregated cross-country indicators of institutional quality and the business environment have been developed in recent years. The promise of these indicators is that they can be used to identify specific reform priorities that policymakers and aid donors can target in their efforts to improve institutional and regulatory quality outcomes. Doing so however requires evidence on the partial effects of these many very detailed variables on outcomes of interest, for example, investor perceptions of corruption or the quality of the regulatory environment. In this paper we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to systematically document the partial correlations between disaggregated indicators and several closely-related outcome variables of interest using two leading datasets: the Global Integrity Index and the Doing Business indicators. We find major instability across outcomes and across levels of disaggregation in the set of indicators identified by BMA as important determinants of outcomes. Disaggregated indicators that are important determinants of one outcome are on average not important determinants of other very similar outcomes. And for a given outcome variable, indicators that are important at one level of disaggregation are on average not important at other levels of disaggregation. These findings illustrate the difficulties in using highly-disaggregated indicators to identify reform priorities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5254
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  • 19
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    Does respondent reticence affect the results of corruption surveys? : evidence from the world bank enterprise survey for Nigeria (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Does respondent reticence affect the results of corruption surveys?
    Abstract: A potential concern with survey-based data on corruption is that respondents may not be fully candid in their responses to sensitive questions. If reticent respondents are less likely to admit to involvement in corrupt acts, and if the proportion of reticent respondents varies across groups of interest, comparisons of reported corruption across those groups can be misleading. This paper implements a variant on random response techniques that allows for identification of reticent respondents in the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey for Nigeria fielded in 2008 and 2009. The authors find that 13.1 percent of respondents are highly likely to be reticent, and that these reticent respondents admit to sensitive acts at a significantly lower rate than possibly candid respondents when survey questions are worded in a way that implies personal wrongdoing on the part of the respondent
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5415
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  • 20
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    The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart The worldwide governance indicators
    Abstract: This paper summarizes the methodology of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) project, and related analytical issues. The WGI cover over 200 countries and territories, measuring six dimensions of governance starting in 1996: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. The aggregate indicators are based on several hundred individual underlying variables, taken from a wide variety of existing data sources. The data reflect the views on governance of survey respondents and public, private, and NGO sector experts worldwide. The WGI also explicitly report margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. Even after taking these margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country and over-time comparisons. The aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated underlying source data, are available at www.govindicators.org
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5430
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  • 21
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    How large is the government spending multiplier? : Evidence from World Bank lending (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart How large is the government spending multiplier?
    Abstract: This paper proposes a novel method of isolating fluctuations in public spending that are likely to be uncorrelated with contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks and can be used to estimate government spending multipliers. The approach relies on two features unique to many low-income countries: (1) borrowing from the World Bank finances a substantial fraction of public spending, and (2) actual spending on World Bank-financed projects is typically spread out over several years following the original approval of the project. These two features imply that fluctuations in spending on World Bank projects in a given year are in large part determined by fluctuations in project approval decisions made in previous years, and so are unlikely to be correlated with shocks to output in the current year. World Bank project-level disbursement data are used to isolate the component of public spending associated with project approvals from previous years, which in turn can be used to estimate government spending multipliers, in a sample of 29 aid-dependent low-income countries. The estimated multipliers are small, reasonably precisely estimated, and rarely significantly different from zero
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5500
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  • 22
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    Governance Matters VIII : Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2008 (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (105 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kaufmann, Daniel Governance Matters VIII
    Abstract: This paper reports on the 2009 update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2008: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. These aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 33 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. They find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. The aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated underlying indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4978
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  • 23
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    Instrumental Variables Regressions With Honestly Uncertain Exclusion Restrictions (2008)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (42 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Instrumental Variables Regressions With Honestly Uncertain Exclusion Restrictions
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Benchmark ; Bilateral trade ; Consumers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Econometrics ; Economic Theory & Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP per capita ; Growth rate ; Human capital ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Per capita incomes ; Property rights ; Statistical & Mathematical Sciences ; Access to Finance ; Benchmark ; Bilateral trade ; Consumers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Econometrics ; Economic Theory & Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP per capita ; Growth rate ; Human capital ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Per capita incomes ; Property rights ; Statistical & Mathematical Sciences ; Access to Finance ; Benchmark ; Bilateral trade ; Consumers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Econometrics ; Economic Theory & Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; GDP ; GDP per capita ; Growth rate ; Human capital ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Per capita incomes ; Property rights ; Statistical & Mathematical Sciences
    Abstract: The validity of instrumental variables (IV) regression models depends crucially on fundamentally untestable exclusion restrictions. Typically exclusion restrictions are assumed to hold exactly in the relevant population, yet in many empirical applications there are reasonable prior grounds to doubt their literal truth. In this paper I show how to incorporate prior uncertainty about the validity of the exclusion restriction into linear IV models, and explore the consequences for inference. In particular I provide a mapping from prior uncertainty about the exclusion restriction into increased uncertainty about parameters of interest. Moderate prior uncertainty about exclusion restrictions can lead to a substantial loss of precision in estimates of structural parameters. This loss of precision is relatively more important in situations where IV estimates appear to be more precise, for example in larger samples or with stronger instruments. The author illustrates these points using several prominent recent empirical papers that use linear IV models
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  • 24
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    Governance Matters VII : Aggregate And Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2007 (2008)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (105 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kaufmann, Daniel Governance Matters VII
    Keywords: Accountability ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Global governance ; Governance ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Governance indicators ; Governance program ; Government effectiveness ; Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Governance ; Political stability ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Regulatory quality ; Worldwide governanc ; Accountability ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Global governance ; Governance ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Governance indicators ; Governance program ; Government effectiveness ; Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Governance ; Political stability ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Regulatory quality ; Worldwide governanc ; Accountability ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Global governance ; Governance ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Governance indicators ; Governance program ; Government effectiveness ; Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Governance ; Political stability ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Regulatory quality ; Worldwide governanc
    Abstract: This paper reports on the latest update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2007: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. The latest aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 32 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. The authors also briefly describe the evolution of the WGI since its inception, and show that the margins of error on the aggregate governance indicators have declined over the years, even though they still remain non-trivial. The authors find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. In less than a decade, a substantial number of countries exhibit statistically significant improvements in at least one dimension of governance, while other countries exhibit deterioration in some dimensions. These aggregate indicators, spanning more than a decade, together with the disaggregated individual indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org
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  • 25
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    Governance Indicators : Where Are We, Where Should We Be Going ? (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (45 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kaufmann, Daniel Governance Indicators
    Keywords: Anticorruption ; Citizens ; Economic development ; Global Governance ; Good governance ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Governance Indicators ; Governance outcomes ; Measurement error ; Measuring governance ; National Governance ; Rule of law ; Anticorruption ; Citizens ; Economic development ; Global Governance ; Good governance ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Governance Indicators ; Governance outcomes ; Measurement error ; Measuring governance ; National Governance ; Rule of law ; Anticorruption ; Citizens ; Economic development ; Global Governance ; Good governance ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Governance Indicators ; Governance outcomes ; Measurement error ; Measuring governance ; National Governance ; Rule of law
    Abstract: Scholars, policymakers, aid donors, and aid recipients acknowledge the importance of good governance for development. This understanding has spurred an intense interest in more refined, nuanced, and policy-relevant indicators of governance. In this paper we review progress to date in the area of measuring governance, using a simple framework of analysis focusing on two key questions: (i) what do we measure? and, (ii) whose views do we rely on? For the former question, we distinguish between indicators measuring formal laws or rules 'on the books', and indicators that measure the practical application or outcomes of these rules 'on the ground', calling attention to the strengths and weaknesses of both types of indicators as well as the complementarities between them. For the latter question, we distinguish between experts and survey respondents on whose views governance assessments are based, again highlighting their advantages, disadvantages, and complementarities. We also review the merits of aggregate as opposed to individual governance indicators. We conclude with some simple principles to guide the refinement of existing governance indicators and the development of future indicators. We emphasize the need to: transparently disclose and account for the margins of error in all indicators; draw from a diversity of indicators and exploit complementarities among them; submit all indicators to rigorous public and academic scrutiny; and, in light of the lessons of over a decade of existing indicators, to be realistic in the expectations of future indicators
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  • 26
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    Governance Matters VI : Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators, 1996-2006 (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (94 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mastruzzi, Massimo Governance Matters VI
    Keywords: Accountability ; Aggregate indicators ; Citizen ; Corruption ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Governance Indicators ; Government Effectiveness ; National Governance ; Political Stability ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Regulatory Quality ; Rule of Law ; Worldwide Governance Indicators ; Accountability ; Aggregate indicators ; Citizen ; Corruption ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Governance Indicators ; Government Effectiveness ; National Governance ; Political Stability ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Regulatory Quality ; Rule of Law ; Worldwide Governance Indicators ; Accountability ; Aggregate indicators ; Citizen ; Corruption ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Governance Indicators ; Government Effectiveness ; National Governance ; Political Stability ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Regulatory Quality ; Rule of Law ; Worldwide Governance Indicators
    Abstract: This paper reports on the latest update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2006: voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. This latest set of aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance taken from 33 data sources provided by 30 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector, and nongovernmental organization experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The paper also explicitly reports the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. It finds that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons, as well as monitoring progress over time. In less than a decade, a substantial number of countries exhibit statistically significant improvements in at least one dimension of governance, while other countries exhibit deterioration in some dimensions. The decade-long aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated individual indicators, are available in a newly-redesigned website at www.govindicators.org
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  • 27
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    The Worldwide Governance Indicators Project : Answering The Critics (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kaufmann, Daniel The Worldwide Governance Indicators Project
    Keywords: Administrative Corruption ; Aggregate Governance Indicators ; Aggregate Indicator ; Aggregate Indicators ; Aggregation Method ; Aggregation Methodology ; Corruption ; Corruption Indicator ; Country Corruption ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; National Governance ; Science and Technology Development ; Statistical and Mathematical Sciences ; Administrative Corruption ; Aggregate Governance Indicators ; Aggregate Indicator ; Aggregate Indicators ; Aggregation Method ; Aggregation Methodology ; Corruption ; Corruption Indicator ; Country Corruption ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; National Governance ; Science and Technology Development ; Statistical and Mathematical Sciences ; Administrative Corruption ; Aggregate Governance Indicators ; Aggregate Indicator ; Aggregate Indicators ; Aggregation Method ; Aggregation Methodology ; Corruption ; Corruption Indicator ; Country Corruption ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; National Governance ; Science and Technology Development ; Statistical and Mathematical Sciences
    Abstract: The Worldwide Governance Indicators, reporting estimates of six dimensions of governance for over 200 countries between 1996 and 2005, have become widely used among policymakers and academics. They have also attracted some explicit written criticisms. In this short paper the authors synthesize 11 critiques offered by four recent papers. They then refute them as either conceptually incorrect or empirically unsubstantiated
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  • 28
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    Does IDA Engage In Defensive Lending ? (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Geginat, Carolin Does IDA Engage In Defensive Lending ?
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Creditors ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Debt issues ; Debts ; Disbursements ; Economic Theory and Research ; External debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Bank ; International Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non-performing loans ; Repayments ; Access to Finance ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Creditors ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Debt issues ; Debts ; Disbursements ; Economic Theory and Research ; External debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Bank ; International Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non-performing loans ; Repayments ; Access to Finance ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Creditors ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Debt issues ; Debts ; Disbursements ; Economic Theory and Research ; External debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Bank ; International Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non-performing loans ; Repayments
    Abstract: Multilateral development banks are frequently accused of "defensive lending," the practice of extending new loans purely in order to ensure that existing loans are repaid. This paper empirically examine this hypothesis using data on lending by and repayments to the International Development Association (IDA), which is the largest provider of concessional development loans to low-income countries. The authors argue that key institutional features of IDA both (i) potentially create incentives for defensive lending, and (ii) enable particularly sharp tests of the defensive lending hypothesis. The authors find that there is a surprisingly robust partial correlation between disbursements on new IDA loans and repayments on existing loans. However, a closer look at the evidence suggests that defensive lending is unlikely to be a major explanation for this partial correlation
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  • 29
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    Governance Matters V : Aggregate And Individual Governance Indicators For 1996 - 2005 (2006)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (109 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kaufmann, Daniel Governance Matters V
    Keywords: Accountability ; Aggregate Governance Indicators ; Aggregate Indicators ; Citizen ; Corruption ; Governance ; Governance ; Governance Challenges ; Governance Indicators ; Governance Indicators ; Government Effectiveness ; Institution ; National Governance ; Accountability ; Aggregate Governance Indicators ; Aggregate Indicators ; Citizen ; Corruption ; Governance ; Governance ; Governance Challenges ; Governance Indicators ; Governance Indicators ; Government Effectiveness ; Institution ; National Governance ; Accountability ; Aggregate Governance Indicators ; Aggregate Indicators ; Citizen ; Corruption ; Governance ; Governance ; Governance Challenges ; Governance Indicators ; Governance Indicators ; Government Effectiveness ; Institution ; National Governance
    Abstract: The authors report on the latest version of the worldwide governance indicators, covering 213 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance from 1996 until end-2005: voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. The latest indicators are based on hundreds of variables and reflect the views of thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents and experts worldwide. Although global averages of governance display no marked trends during 1996-2005, nearly one-third of countries exhibit significant changes [for better or for worse] on at least one dimension of governance. Three new features distinguish this update. (1) The authors have moved to annual reporting of governance estimates. This update includes new governance estimates for 2003 and 2005, as well as minor backward revisions to biannual historical data for 1996-2004. (2) The authors are, for the first time, publishing the individual measures of governance from virtually every data source underlying the aggregate governance indicators. The ready availability of the individual data sources underlying the aggregate governance indicators is aimed at further enhancing the transparency of the methodology and of the resulting aggregate indicators, as well as helping data users and policymakers identify specific governance challenges in individual countries. (3) The authors present new evidence on the reliability of expert assessments of governance which, alongside survey responses, form part of the aggregate measures of governance
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  • 30
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    Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies during Speculative Attacks? (2000)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (52 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies during Speculative Attacks?
    Keywords: Balance Of Payments ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Fixed Nominal Exchange Rates ; Foreign Exchange ; Growth Rates ; Interest Rate Differentials ; Interest Rates ; International Capital Flows ; International Monetary Fund ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Authorities ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Economics ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Shocks ; Nominal Exchange Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Tight Monetary Policy ; Balance Of Payments ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Fixed Nominal Exchange Rates ; Foreign Exchange ; Growth Rates ; Interest Rate Differentials ; Interest Rates ; International Capital Flows ; International Monetary Fund ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Authorities ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Economics ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Shocks ; Nominal Exchange Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Tight Monetary Policy ; Balance Of Payments ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Fixed Nominal Exchange Rates ; Foreign Exchange ; Growth Rates ; Interest Rate Differentials ; Interest Rates ; International Capital Flows ; International Monetary Fund ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Authorities ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Economics ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Shocks ; Nominal Exchange Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Tight Monetary Policy
    Abstract: January 2000 - No - there is no systematic association between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. Drawing on evidence from a large sample of speculative attacks in industrial and developing countries, Kraay argues that high interest rates do not defend currencies against speculative attacks. In fact, there is a striking lack of any systematic association between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. The lack of clear empirical evidence on the effects of high interest rates during speculative attacks mirrors the theoretical ambiguities on this issue. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the causes and consequences of financial crises. The author may be contacted at akraayworldbank.org
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  • 31
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    Growth Forecasts Using Time Series and Growth Models (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Growth Forecasts Using Time Series and Growth Models
    Keywords: Actual Outcomes ; Country Variation ; Cross-Country Growth Regressions ; Economic Forecasting ; Explanatory Variables ; First-Order ; Forecast ; Forecast Performance ; Forecasting ; Future Growth ; Growth Forecasts ; Growth Models ; Growth Projections ; Growth Regression ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Popular Empirical Framework ; Relative Forecast Performance ; Sample Forecasting ; Time Series ; Time Series Model ; Time Series Models ; Time Series Variation ; Actual Outcomes ; Country Variation ; Cross-Country Growth Regressions ; Economic Forecasting ; Explanatory Variables ; First-Order ; Forecast ; Forecast Performance ; Forecasting ; Future Growth ; Growth Forecasts ; Growth Models ; Growth Projections ; Growth Regression ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Popular Empirical Framework ; Relative Forecast Performance ; Sample Forecasting ; Time Series ; Time Series Model ; Time Series Models ; Time Series Variation
    Abstract: November 1999 - It is difficult to choose the best model for forecasting real per capita GDP for a particular country or group of countries. This study suggests potential gains from combining time series and growth-regression-based approaches to forecasting. Kraay and Monokroussos consider two alternative methods of forecasting real per capita GDP at various horizons: · Univariate time series models estimated country by country. · Cross-country growth regressions. They evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of both approaches for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. They find only modest differences between the two approaches. In almost all cases, differences in median (across countries) forecast performance are small relative to the large discrepancies between forecasts and actual outcomes. Interestingly, the performance of both models is similar to that of forecasts generated by the World Bank's Unified Survey. The results do not provide a compelling case for one approach over another, but they do indicate that there are potential gains from combining time series and growth-regression-based forecasting approaches. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to improve the understanding of economic growth. The authors may be contacted at akraayworldbank.org or gmonokroussos@worldbank.org
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