Ihre E-Mail wurde erfolgreich gesendet. Bitte prüfen Sie Ihren Maileingang.

Leider ist ein Fehler beim E-Mail-Versand aufgetreten. Bitte versuchen Sie es erneut.

Vorgang fortführen?

Exportieren
Filter
  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (12)
  • 2015-2019  (12)
  • Guillemette, Yvan  (12)
  • Graue Literatur  (12)
  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Insights from OECD Phillips curve equations on recent inflation outcomes (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1579
    Schlagwort(e): Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority of OECD countries, but the magnitude of the effect is typically weak. A corollary is that the effect of labour market slack on inflation can often be dominated by other shocks, including imported inflation. The current Secretariat Phillips curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s target, although some experimentation suggests that alternative proxies for expectations sometimes work better and there is some evidence that persistent under-shooting of inflation has led to some de-anchoring of expectations from the target, especially in the euro area. For most OECD countries, a measure of the global output gap is both statistically significant and strongly preferred to a domestic gap measure in explaining the wedge between headline and core inflation, although domestic gaps are strongly preferred in explaining core inflation. Various forms of non-linearity in the Phillips curve provide possible explanations for recent weak inflation outcomes, but statistical testing provides only limited support for such explanations.
    DOI: 10.1787/d1e97b18-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Recent improvements to the public finance block of the OECD's long-term global model (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1581
    Schlagwort(e): Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: This paper documents recent extensions and revisions made to the model underlying the long-run global macroeconomic scenarios that are published every few years. First, a fiscal block is added for 11 countries that previously lacked one. Second, public pension expenditure projections are made endogenous to the projected ratio of retirees to workers and to a hypothesis on the future evolution of benefit ratios. Cross-country differences in projected public pension expenditure thus reflect many factors, including the speed of population ageing, the evolution of employment rates for older people, especially females, and rules regarding the evolution of statutory retirement ages. Third, revised public health expenditure projections introduce a higher income elasticity in middle-income than high-income countries and makes the excess of health care inflation over GDP inflation (Baumol effect) endogenous to the projected labour productivity growth rate. And fourth, the determination of long-term interest rates is revised to associate the fiscal risk premium to net, as opposed to gross, government debt, and make its size conditional on euro area membership, the quality of public governance and the occurrence of systemic banking crises, while allowing a flight-to-safety effect during such crises to lower bond yields in countries that are providers of global safe assets.
    DOI: 10.1787/4f07fb8d-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Labour supply of older people in advanced economies : the impact of changes to statutory retirement ages (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1554
    Schlagwort(e): Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: A decomposition of changes to participation rates of 55-to-74 year-olds between 2002 and 2017 based on an estimated equation attributes more than two thirds of the median increase (of 10.9 percentage points) to rising life expectancy and educational attainment. About 1 percentage point is attributable to changes in statutory retirement ages, although part of the reason these effects are not larger is that in most countries, statutory retirement ages have not kept pace with life expectancy. Although difficult to incorporate in the empirical framework, evidence of falling disability pension rolls and reduced sensitivity of old-age participation to the level of unemployment suggests that the tightening of alternative early retirement pathways through unemployment or disability schemes has been a major factor in the turnaround in the participation rate of older workers. Projections indicate that participation rates for 55-to-74 year-olds should keep rising through 2030, by 3.4 percentage points for the median country. Rising life expectancy and educational attainment are projected to make the largest contributions, more than compensating for the negative contribution of population ageing in most countries.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/b9f8d292-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The OECD potential output estimation methodology (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1563
    Schlagwort(e): Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/4357c723-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The long view : scenarios for the world economy to 2060 (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD economic policy paper no. 22 (July 2018)
    Serie: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.22
    Schlagwort(e): 2016 ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Szenariotechnik ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: This paper presents long-run economic projections for 46 countries, extending the short-run projections of the Spring 2018 OECD Economic Outlook. It first sets out a baseline scenario under the assumption that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms. This scenario is then used as a reference point to illustrate the potential impact of structural reforms in alternative scenarios, including better governance and educational attainment in the large emerging-market economies and competition-friendly product market and labour market reforms in OECD economies. Flexibility-enhancing labour market reforms not only boost living standards but, by raising the employment rate, also help alleviate fiscal pressures associated with population ageing. Another scenario illustrates the potential positive impact of linking the pensionable age to life expectancy on the participation rate of older workers, and in particular that of women. Additional scenarios illustrate the potential economic gains from raising public investment and spending more on research and development. A final ‘negative’ scenario shows how slipping back on trade liberalisation – returning to 1990 average tariff rates – might depress standards of living everywhere.
    DOI: 10.1787/b4f4e03e-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Investment as a transmission mechanism from weak demand to weak supply and the post-crisis productivity slowdown (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1466
    Schlagwort(e): Finanzkrise ; Produktionspotenzial ; Kapitalstock ; Investition ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Akzelerator ; Hysterese ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration of potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. For the most severely affected economies, the financial crisis is estimated to have reduced potential output by more than 2% via this transmission mechanism. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, over a period when the use of conventional macro policy instruments was constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competition-friendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/0c62cc26-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 7
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Saving, investment, capital stock and current account projections in long-term scenarios (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1461
    Schlagwort(e): Sparquote ; Kapitalstock ; Investition ; Leistungsbilanz ; Leistungsbilanz ; Szenariotechnik ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: The paper describes the framework used in long-term economic scenarios for the projection of the saving rate, investment, capital stock and current account. The saving rate is determined according to an estimated equation which suggests that demographics, captured by the old-age dependency rate and life expectancy, is a major driver, with additional effects from the fiscal balance, labour productivity growth, the net oil trade balance, the availability of credit and the level of social protection. The evolution of the business sector capital stock depends on the economy’s cyclical position, product market regulation, employment protection legislation and the user cost of capital, and may be constrained by current account deficits depending on the degree of capital account openness. Business sector investment is derived from the capital stock projection via the usual stock-flow identity. The public sector capital stock-to-output ratio is assumed to be constant in the baseline scenario, but a public investment shock can be simulated in alternative scenarios. The current account balance is obtained as the difference between national investment and saving, and in turn determines the evolution of the net international investment position. A global interest rate premium helps to bring global saving and investment into balance.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/aa519fc9-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 8
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The fiscal projection framework in long-term scenarios (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1440
    Schlagwort(e): Szenariotechnik ; Finanzpolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: The paper describes the fiscal framework used in long-term economic scenarios, with some emphasis on revisions made since the 2013 vintage of the long-term model. Long-term projections for public spending on pensions, health and long-term care are now separate from other primary expenditure and sourced from previous OECD work taking account of population ageing and other cost pressures. Other primary expenditure are assumed to remain constant in real terms on a per capita basis, rather than remaining stable as a share of GDP. This difference is important for long-term fiscal projections because government finances are sensitive to the employment rate, whereas expenditure is linked to the total population. A fiscal rule adjusts government revenue to ensure that public debt eventually stabilises as a share of GDP, making government revenue as a share of GDP the preferred indicator of future fiscal pressure.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/8eddfa18-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 9
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    A revised approach to trend employment projections in long-term scenarios (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1384
    Schlagwort(e): cyclical adjustment, Trend employment, projections, long-term scenarios, long-term model, employment gap, cohort model, potential employment ; Betriebswirtschaftliche Produktionsfunktion ; Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Längsschnittanalyse ; Weltmodell ; Employment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: The paper describes revisions to the trend employment component of the production function underpinning long-term economic scenarios. Starting with historical age and sex-specific employment rates, a novel approach is developed to correct for cyclical effects using the country-level employment gap while allowing the different sex and age groups to exhibit different sensitivities to the economic cycle. From the resulting cyclically adjusted age/sex-specific employment rates, trend entry and exit rates into/out of employment are computed using the traditional cohort approach. The different employment propensities of existing cohorts are then used to project future employment rates, with entry and exit rates of new cohorts assumed to mimic the most recent ones. To construct scenarios, the model allows a number of policy settings to influence employment rate projections, notably the legal retirement age, tax wedges, family benefits, etc. The sizes of these effects are sourced from recent OECD work on the quantification of structural reforms, and are also specific to sex and age groups. The trend total employment projection is obtained by aggregating age/sex-specific employment rate projections using external demographic projections.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/075f0153-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 10
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    A revised approach to productivity convergence in long-term scenarios (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1385
    Schlagwort(e): Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Längsschnittanalyse ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: The paper describes revisions to the trend labour efficiency component of the production function underpinning long-term economic scenarios. The main goal of the revision is to add more policy and institutional determinants in the equation to enrich the scenarios that can be constructed. In the proposed equation, equilibrium trend labour efficiency depends on a broad measure of the quality of institutions and governance (the World’s Bank rule of law indicator), human capital (based on average years of schooling attainment), product market regulation (PMR), openness to trade adjusted for country size, the stability of the macroeconomic framework (based on inflation and its variance), income inequality (based on GINI coefficients) as well as domestic and global research and development (via accumulated stocks of R&D). Apart from the innovation effects, the sizes of the other effects are jointly estimated in a conditional convergence framework with a sample of about 120 countries, without the use of country fixed effects. Rule of law and openness are also estimated to influence the speed of convergence toward the long-term equilibrium.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/0b8947e3-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 11
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1294
    Schlagwort(e): Produktionspotenzial ; Produktionsfunktion ; Arbeitsproduktivität ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Finanzkrise ; OECD-Staaten ; Employment ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisions to OECD published estimates of the output gap around the period of the financial crisis have been exceptionally large, with by far the largest contribution to these revisions coming from the labour-efficiency gap. The current paper investigates a modification to the standard OECD production function method for deriving potential output, which involves an additional cyclical adjustment in the derivation of trend labour efficiency. The additional adjustment helps to reduce the occurrence of large end-point revisions and of sign switches between the initial and final estimates of the labour-efficiency gap. The variables which are most often found to be useful in providing this cyclical adjustment of labour efficiency are manufacturing capacity utilisation and the investment share. However, for a few countries additional variables – house prices and credit – have been used to provide the cyclical adjustment, although this raises an issue as to whether the cyclical adjustment should be limited to a core set of variables to ensure the method remains reasonably homogenous across countries. Recent improvements to the specification of the Phillips curve, which imply a tighter fit between the unemployment gap and inflation, should also reduce end-point revisions to the unemployment gap in future.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jm0qwpqmz34-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 12
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Links between weak investment and the slowdown in productivity and potential output growth across the OECD (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1304
    Schlagwort(e): Finanzkrise ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Produktionspotenzial ; Investition ; Kapitalstock ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: The OECD framework for estimating potential output is combined with previous OECD empirical research to analyse the causes of recent weak productivity growth. Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis, the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration in potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. Circumstantial evidence suggests that a misallocation of capital in the pre-crisis period also contributed to the slowdown in capital stock growth, particularly among the most severely affected countries. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, at a time when the use of conventional macro policy instruments has become increasingly constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competitionfriendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth.
    Anmerkung: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlwvz0smq45-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    Online-Ressource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
Schließen ⊗
Diese Webseite nutzt Cookies und das Analyse-Tool Matomo. Weitere Informationen finden Sie hier...