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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The "How To" of Fiscal Sustainability : A Technical Manual For Using The Fiscal Sustainability Tool (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (71 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Bandiera, Luca The "How To" of Fiscal Sustainability
    Keywords: Bank Policy ; Contingent Liabilities ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Data ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Defic Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marke ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Policy ; Contingent Liabilities ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Data ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Defic Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marke ; Private Sector Development ; Bank Policy ; Contingent Liabilities ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Data ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Defic Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inflation ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marke ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis for many developing countries. To further enhance understanding of fiscal policy and the constraints faced by policymakers, the authors develop a toolkit for FSA in middle-income countries which builds on previous work in this area and on new developments in dealing with uncertainty. The FSA toolkit includes an Excel-based FSA tool and a technical manual accompanying it. The FSA tool is standardized and simple, but at the same time flexible enough to allow for user-defined country-specifics. This manual provides step-by-step technical instructions for running the FSA tool and includes mathematical appendices and a glossary
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Quantitative Approaches To Fiscal Sustainability Analysis : A New World Bank Tool Applied To Turkey (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (41 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Budina, Nina Quantitative Approaches To Fiscal Sustainability Analysis
    Keywords: Balance of Payments ; Balance of Payments Crises ; Bank Policy ; Budget ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Management ; Debt Management Policies ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Deficits ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Balance of Payments ; Balance of Payments Crises ; Bank Policy ; Budget ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Management ; Debt Management Policies ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Deficits ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Balance of Payments ; Balance of Payments Crises ; Bank Policy ; Budget ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Management ; Debt Management Policies ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Deficits ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management
    Abstract: Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Nigeria's Growth Record : Dutch Disease Or Debt Overhang ? (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: van Wijnbergen, Sweder Nigeria's Growth Record
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Bank Policy ; Commodity prices ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Debt Overhang ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Expenditure ; Exporters ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policies ; Government expenditure ; Macroeconomic policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil boom ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Access to Finance ; Bank Policy ; Commodity prices ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Debt Overhang ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Expenditure ; Exporters ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policies ; Government expenditure ; Macroeconomic policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil boom ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Access to Finance ; Bank Policy ; Commodity prices ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Debt Overhang ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Expenditure ; Exporters ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal policies ; Government expenditure ; Macroeconomic policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil boom ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management
    Abstract: Nigeria's oil boom has not brought an end to perennial stagnation in the non-oil economy. Is this the unavoidable consequence of the resource boom or have misguided policies contributed? This paper indicates that the extreme volatility of expenditure rather than Dutch Disease effects are behind the disappointing non-oil growth record. Fiscal policies failed to smooth highly volatile oil income; on the contrary government expenditure was more volatile than oil income. The authors provide econometric evidence showing that volatility of expenditure was increased by debt overhang problems. Moreover, they also find evidence of voracity effects that exacerbated expenditure volatility prior to 1984
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Reform, and Inflation Stabilization in Romania (2000)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Budina, Nina Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Reform, and Inflation Stabilization in Romania
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Deficits ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Defic Exchange ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditure ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Deficits ; Fiscal Policy ; Government Expenditures ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Debt ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Defic Revenues ; Tax ; Transition Economies ; Transition Economy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Deficits ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Defic Exchange ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditure ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Deficits ; Fiscal Policy ; Government Expenditures ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Debt ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Defic Revenues ; Tax ; Transition Economies ; Transition Economy ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Deficits ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Defic Exchange ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Expenditure ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Deficits ; Fiscal Policy ; Government Expenditures ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Debt ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Defic Revenues ; Tax ; Transition Economies ; Transition Economy
    Abstract: March 2000 - Fiscal problems are a key factor behind the inflation that has persisted in Eastern Europe since 1989. Deficits need to be cut back, but by how much for a given inflation target? A simple framework links debt, the deficit, and inflation to assess the fiscal stance of the Romanian economy. Unsustainable fiscal deficits were the chief reason for the inflation that has persisted in Eastern Europe since 1989. Deficits need to be cut back, but by how much for a given inflation target? Budina and van Wijnbergen develop a simple framework for debt, the deficit, and inflation to study the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy in Romania's economy. This framework can be used to 1) determine the financeable deficit and the required deficit reduction for a given rate of output growth, inflation rate, and target for debt-output ratios, and 2) to find the inflation rate for which no fiscal adjustment is needed. They use this framework to assess consistency between inflation, monetary reform, and fiscal policy in Romania. Many of the issues in Romania are similar to those in other countries. But Romania is an interesting case because of its history of unsuccessful stabilization attempts. The authors' results suggest that fiscal problems during 1992-94 were masked by shifting government expenses to the books of the National Bank of Romania so that the government deficit did not fully reflect public spending. In addition, the effects of delayed fiscal adjustment were mitigated by exchange rate overvaluation and favorable debt dynamics. In the late 1990s, however, debt dynamics worsened and the economy experienced significant real depreciation. That exacerbated the fiscal problems and increased the fiscal adjustment needed to restore consistency. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study transition economies. The authors may be contacted at nbudinaworldbank.org or svw.heas@wxs.nl
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Determinants of Bulgarian Brady Bond Prices : An Empirical Assessment (2000)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Budina, Nina Determinants of Bulgarian Brady Bond Prices
    Keywords: Bond ; Bond Issues ; Bond Price ; Bond Prices ; Bonds ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Debt Prices ; Debt Service ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Support ; Foreign Debt ; Macroeconomic Stabilization ; Macroeconomic Variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Markets and Market Access ; Option ; Price Movement ; Private Sector Development ; Savings Bank ; Secondary Market ; Secondary Market Debt ; Secondary Market Price ; Bond ; Bond Issues ; Bond Price ; Bond Prices ; Bonds ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Debt Prices ; Debt Service ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Support ; Foreign Debt ; Macroeconomic Stabilization ; Macroeconomic Variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Markets and Market Access ; Option ; Price Movement ; Private Sector Development ; Savings Bank ; Secondary Market ; Secondary Market Debt ; Secondary Market Price ; Bond ; Bond Issues ; Bond Price ; Bond Prices ; Bonds ; Debt Management ; Debt Markets ; Debt Prices ; Debt Service ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Support ; Foreign Debt ; Macroeconomic Stabilization ; Macroeconomic Variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Markets and Market Access ; Option ; Price Movement ; Private Sector Development ; Savings Bank ; Secondary Market ; Secondary Market Debt ; Secondary Market Price
    Abstract: Macroeconomic variables and changes in foreign reserves affect the secondary market price of Brady bonds in Bulgaria. So do changes in the external environment, including crises in other parts of the world. - To analyze the main determinants of secondary market prices of Bulgarian Brady bonds, Budina and Mantchev investigate to what extent fluctuations in domestic fundamentals affect the bonds' secondary market price. They also assess the extent to which external shocks affect the bonds' prices. They estimate the long-term relationship between domestic fundamentals and market prices of the bonds, using cointegration techniques. In the long run, they find that gross foreign reserves and exports had a positive effect on bond prices and the real exchange rate and Mexico's nominal exchange rate depreciation had a negative effect. In the short run, the Asian crisis had a negative impact, and Bulgaria's change in political regime and introduction of a currency board had a positive impact. Mexico's economic crisis in 1995 had contagion effects. The authors' empirical results confirm the view that the so-called fundamentals approach should be used to supplement the analysis of spillover effects for Bulgarian Brady bonds. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study transition economies. The authors may be contacted at nbudinaworldbank.org or tmantchev@hotmail.com
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Liquidity Constraints and Investment in Transition Economies : The Case of Bulgaria (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Budina, Nina Liquidity Constraints and Investment in Transition Economies
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Constraints ; Capital Markets ; Cash Flow ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Market ; Financial Structure ; Financial System ; Financial Weakness ; Investment ; Investment Function ; Investment Projects ; Liquidity ; Liquidity Constraints ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Economies ; Market Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Transition Economies ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Constraints ; Capital Markets ; Cash Flow ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Market ; Financial Structure ; Financial System ; Financial Weakness ; Investment ; Investment Function ; Investment Projects ; Liquidity ; Liquidity Constraints ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Economies ; Market Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Transition Economies
    Abstract: January 2000 - In Bulgaria and other transition economies, liquidity constraints and hence access to external funds must be seen in the context of soft budget constraints and the financial system's failure to enforce the efficient allocation of funds. Liquidity constraints in Bulgaria may be seen as a sign of financial weakness. Budina, Garretsen, and de Jong use firm level data on Bulgaria to investigate the impact of liquidity constraints on firms' investment performance. Internal funds are an important determinant of investment in most industrial economies. The authors use a simple accelerator model of investment to test whether liquidity constraints are relevant in Bulgaria's case. Their estimates are based on data for 1993-95, before Bulgaria's financial crisis of 1996-97. It turns out that Bulgarian firms are liquidity-constrained and that firms' size and financial structure help to distinguish between firms that are more and less liquidity-constrained. In the authors' view, liquidity constraints in transition economies should be interpreted in different ways than those in industrial economies. In Bulgaria, liquidity constraints and hence access to external funds should be seen in the context of soft budget constraints and the financial system's failure to enforce the efficient allocation of funds. The relationship between liquidity constraints and firm characteristics may actually be the opposite of what is normally the case in industrial countries. In Bulgaria, lack of liquidity constraints may be a sign of financial weakness. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study transition economies. The authors may be contacted at nbudinaworldbank.org, h.garretsen@bw.kun.nl or e.dejong@bw.kun.nl
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