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  • Blundell-Wignall, Adrian  (25)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (25)
  • Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press
  • Finance and Investment  (25)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Foreign direct investment, corruption and the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD working papers on international investment 2017, 01
    Series Statement: OECD working papers on international investment
    Keywords: corrumption ; institutions ; law ; foreign direct investment ; Finance and Investment ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper estimates a dynamic foreign direct investment (FDI) gravity model to explore the impact of corruption in general and the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention in particular. The evidence from previous studies in both domains is mixed, probably due to econometric inconsistencies and misuse of data. The more robust findings are that corruption has an insignificant or even positive effect on FDI in the general population. However, adherence to the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention has a clear negative impact on FDI—countries that adhere reduce investments in corrupt destinations.
    DOI: 10.1787/9cb3690c-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: Volltext
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  • 2
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    Evaluating capital flow management measures used as macro-prudential tools (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2015, no. 2, p. 7-27 | volume:2015 | year:2015 | number:2 | pages:7-27
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (21 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2015, no. 2, p. 7-27
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-27
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Earlier OECD research has shown that capital flow management measures (CFMs) that are used as macro-prudential measures (MPMs), including currency-based restrictions applied to banks’ operations also with non-residents, have the intended negative impact on capital account openness as measured by covered interest parity indicators. But what is their impact as macro-prudential tools to improve resilience to financial stability risks? This paper refers to the Bruno and Shin (2013) study that suggests that currency-based restrictions act as an effective macro-prudential buffer by reducing the sensitivity in emerging economies of cross-border bank lending to global credit cycles as measured by the volatility index VIX. The specific restrictions considered by the Bruno and Shin study are defined as CFMs and MPMs by both the IMF and the OECD. The paper shows that this result is mitigated when using updated data and testing the same hypotheses for more countries. Therefore further research is needed before concluding on the effectiveness of CFMs used as MPMs. On the other hand, the paper does find that CFMs, including currency-based measures, play a role in managing the domestic credit implications of those central banks engaged in foreign exchange interventions. The paper suggests that countries concerned with financial stability risks that may arise from global credit push factors, while wishing to avoid price distortions caused by CFMs, could use Basel III-consistent liquidity coverage ratios and net stable funding ratios as alternatives to CFMs; they also have the advantage of not having raised objections between governments so far regarding international commitments to exchange rate flexibility and cross-border openness, including the OECD Code of Liberalisation of Capital Movements.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2015-5jm0p44dlq6f
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  • 3
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    The MNE Guidelines at 40: Implementation still matters (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Observer
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (4 p.)
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Observer
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics
    DOI: 10.1787/b49f2f35-en
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  • 4
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    Infrastructure versus other investments in the global economy and stagnation hypotheses : What do company data tell us? (2015)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 7-45 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:2 | pages:7-45
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 7-45
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-45
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics
    Abstract: This paper uses data drawn from 10 000 global companies in 75 advanced and emerging countries to look at trends in infrastructure and other non-financial industries in light of the talk of stagnation. There appears to be a twin paradox in the global economy: some companies and industries are possibly over-investing, driving down returns on equity (ROEs) versus the cost of capital and creating margin pressure globally, while others carry out too little long-term investment in favour of buybacks and the accumulation of cash. This pattern is associated with a shift in the centre of gravity of world economic activity towards emerging markets. Most of the over-investment appears to be occurring in the extremely strong growth of emerging market sales and investment in non-infrastructure companies, much of which is being financed from rapidly growing debt since the financial crisis. Global value chains, emerging market policies of financial repression, low interest rates, taxation incentives, natural resource endowments and other factors determine where investment is stronger and where it is restrained. Potential problems of debt-financed over-investment in non-infrastructure industries in emerging markets and the incentives for buybacks are identified as major policy issues that need to be addressed if sustainable growth is to be achieved. Evidence on the role of causal factors (sales, GDP, the return on equity, the cost of equity and debt and a measure of financial openness) on corporate capital spending is presented. Finally some policy recommendations are made. JEL classification: F21, G15, G18, G23 Keywords: Global economy, infrastructure, investment, listed companies
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2014-5js4sbd025d6
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  • 5
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    Bank business models and the Basel system : Complexity and interconnectedness (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:43-68
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:43-68
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money: excess leverage and default pressure resulting from contagion and counterparty risk. This paper looks at whether the Basel III agreement addresses these issues effectively. Basel III has some very useful elements, notably a (much too light “back-up”) leverage ratio, a capital buffer, a proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses and liquidity and stable funding ratios. However, the paper shows that Basel risk weighting and the use of internal bank models for determining them leads to systematic regulatory arbitrage that undermines its effectiveness. Empirical evidence about the determinants of the riskiness of a bank (measured in this study by the Distance-to-Default) shows that a simple leverage ratio vastly outperforms the Basel Tier 1 ratio. Furthermore, business model features (after controlling for macro factors) have a huge impact. Derivatives origination, prime broking, etc., carry vastly different risks to core deposit banking. Where such differences are present, it makes little sense to have a one-size-fits-all approach to capital rules. Capital rules make more sense when fundamentally different businesses are separated. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, Basel III, derivatives, bank business models, distance-todefault, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkd65b
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  • 6
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    Bank business models and the separation issue (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:69-91
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:69-91
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money while gains were privatised and losses socialised. It is shown that banks need little capital in calm periods, but in a crisis they need too much – there is no reasonable ex-ante capital rule for large systemically important financial institutions that will make them safe. The bank regulators paradox is that large complex and interconnected banks need very little capital in the good times, but they can never have enough in an extreme crisis. Separation is required to deal with this problem, which derives mainly from counterparty risk. The study suggests banks should be considered for separation into a ring-fenced non-operating holding company (NOHC) structure with ring-fencing when they pass a key allowable threshold for the gross market value (GMV) of derivatives, a case which is reinforced if the bank has high wholesale funding and low levels of liquid trading assets. The pricing of derivatives and repos would become more commensurate with the risks if the NOHC proposal were to be pursued as a unifying strategy for the different national approaches. Most of the objections to this structure are summarised and rebutted. Other national proposals for separation in Switzerland, the Volcker rule, the Vickers rule, and the Liikanen proposal are argued to be inferior to the ring-fenced NOHC proposal, on the grounds that empirical evidence about what matters for a safe business model is not taken properly into account. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, derivatives, bank business models, distance-to-default, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhk9b6j
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  • 7
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    Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth : Evidence for emerging economies (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:29-42
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:29-42
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The results of an IMF study on controls on capital inflows in emerging economies, using a probit regression approach, are first replicated and tested for stability. The IMF results, downplayed by the authors, have been used by others to suggest controls can be helpful in a crisis situation. However, the stability findings suggest the results are not sufficiently robust to make strong claims in this regard. The same 37 countries and the IMF capital control measures are then used in a panel regression study to examine the impact of capital inflows on annual real GDP growth around the Global Financial Crisis. The results between the pre-crisis and the crisis periods are inconsistent with the IMF study – finding that capital restrictions on inflows (particularly debt liabilities) are most useful in good times when inflows to emerging markets are strong and upward pressure on managed exchange rates and reserves accumulation is greatest. However, lower controls on bonds and on FDI inflows seem to be associated with better growth outcomes during the crisis period studied. These findings are more consistent with studies that see capital controls as part of exchange rate targeting policies and concerns about excess reserves accumulation. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01 Keywords: Capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkgthc
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  • 8
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    Problems in the international financial system (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:99-121
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:99-121
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the 1980s OECD investment-saving correlations – as an inverse measure of economic openness – indicate a very wide disparity of openness between the OECD and emerging market economies (EMEs) with an absence of open markets in the latter. Given the increasing weight of EMEs in the world economy this pattern of growth with disparity of openness is ultimately unsustainable. This approach to development is not in the interests of EMEs in the post-crisis global environment. Various studies show how the absence of capital mobility inhibits development though private sector capital expenditure at the firm level. This paper generalises those findings in a panel study, showing that in the period since 2008 the increased presence of capital controls is associated with highly significant negative effects on business investment. It suggests that the world economy could be entering a more dangerous phase of potential instability that is not in the interests of either the advanced or the emerging world. There is scope for better policies to encourage more openness; the OECD Codes of Liberalisation could be an effective tool for managing the reform process.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2014-5jxzmkg91s0t
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  • 9
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    Macro-prudential policy, bank systemic risk and capital controls (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:7-28
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-28
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper explores the issue of macro-prudential policies in the light of empirical evidence on the determinants of bank systemic risk, and the effectiveness of capital controls. In many ways this reflects a step back in time towards sector approaches to monetary policy that were so prevalent in the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s. Complexity and interdependence is such that proposals on these issues should be treated with care until much more is understood about the issue. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01. Keywords: Macro-prudential policies, capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkhks4
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  • 10
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    Bank lending puzzles : Business models and the responsiveness to policy (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:7-30
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-30
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Banks are still dealing with historic losses buried in their balance sheets. As a result, the US economy is picking up only modestly and Europe is sinking further into recession, despite unprecedented low interest rates and policies to compress the term premium. The aim of this study is to explore the business activities of banks, with a special focus on their lending behaviour, and its responsiveness to unconventional monetary policy. The paper shows that deleveraging has been mainly via mark-to-market assets falling in value, and policy is now serving to reflate these assets without a strong impact on lending. A panel regression study shows that GSIFI banks are least responsive to policy. Non-GSIFI banks respond to the lending rate spread to cash rates, the spread between lending rates and the alternative investment in government bonds, and the distance-to-default (the banks solvency). The paper shows that better lending in the USA is a result of safer banks and a better spread to government bonds – yields on the latter are too attractive relative to lending rates in Europe. Finally, the paper comments on the problem of using cyclical tools to address structural problems in banks, and suggests which alternative policies would better facilitate a financial system more aligned with lending, trust and stability and less towards high-risk activities and leverage via complex products. JEL Classification: E50, E51, E52, E58, G20, G21, G24, G28. Keywords: Bank Lending, Bank business model, deleveraging, structural policy, unconventional monetary policy, distance to default, spreads, bank separation, GSIFI.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5k40m1nz55wj
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  • 11
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    Long-term investment, the cost of capital and the dividend and buyback puzzle (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:39-52
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:39-52
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper argues that interest rates are at extremely low levels to support banks, and the search for yield has pushed the liquidity driven speculative bubble from real estate, derivatives and structured products markets into the corporate debt market. Equities have rallied strongly too. This asset cycle is certainly helping banks reduce hidden losses on illiquid securities and could also help reduce the cost of equity. But for this to occur at current bond yields would require an unrealistic bubble in equities. Markets are assuming that this transition from low to higher rates (more in line with nominal GDP) can be handled smoothly by policy makers, when in fact this may not be so. Extreme volatility would risk new financial fragility problems. The paper presents a panel model using more than 4 000 global companies and shows that the Capex decision in general depend on the cost of equity, the accelerator and uncertainty, whereas buybacks are driven mainly by the gap between the cost of equity and debt. Right now the incentive structure implied by very low interest rates, which may be sustained for a long time, together with tax incentives, works directly against longterm investment. Debt finance is cheap, while the cost of equity capital needed for risky long-term investment is still high. This combination provides a direct incentive for borrowing to carry out buybacks (de-equitisation). Noting that weak investment reduces potential GDP, the paper makes some policy suggestions. JEL Classification: G15, G32, G28, E52. Keywords: Long-term investment, interest rates, de-equitisation, cost of capital, dividend and buybacks, monetary policy.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5k41z8t05l8s
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  • 12
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    Business models of banks, leverage and the distance-to-default (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:2 | pages:7-34
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-34
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This study models the distance-to-default (DTD) of a large sample of banks with the aim of shedding light on policy and regulatory issues. The determinants of the distance-to-default in a panel sample of 94 banks over the period 2004 to 2011, controlling for the market beta of each bank, includes house prices, relative size, simple leverage, derivatives gross market value of exposure, trading assets, wholesale funding and cross-border revenue. The Basel Tier 1 ratio finds no support as a predictor of default risk. The un-weighted leverage ratio, on the other hand, finds strong support. At the macro level house prices are a powerful predictor of the DTD. At the business model level, the results appear to be consistent with an approach to policy that focuses on the apparent importance of the “size-derivativesleverage- wholesale funding nexus” in influencing the DTD of banks. While these results are preliminary, it is encouraging that the out-of-sample predictive power of the model improves systematically as each year of new observations is added. The results are also consistent with some central bank involvement in the supervision process, given the importance of the asset price cycle, identified in this study.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2012-5k4bxlxbd646
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  • 13
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    Deleveraging, Traditional versus Capital Markets Banking and the Urgent Need to Separate and Recapitalise G-SIFI Banks (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 7-44 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:1 | pages:7-44
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 7-44
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-44
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the crisis, even with massive support from governments and central banks, widespread regulatory changes and promises from bank executives to improve the governance of risk, the world continues to see failures of Globally Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs, like Dexia), and huge losses (most recently from JP Morgan). Banks refuse to lend to each other, the central banks have become the interbank market and ‘bad deleveraging’ bears down on the economy forcing job losses in small- and medium-sized companies. ‘Good deleveraging’ occurs via building capital, and in this respect the US approach to dealing with the crisis provides something of a lesson that policy makers in Europe should take note of. With respect to regulations, the paper shows that capital and liquidity rules create a bias against lending to the enterprise sector (that drives jobs and economic growth). With respect to G-SIFIs, the paper shows how movements in their balance sheets are dominated by derivatives, the exposure to which varies with the cycle in risk. Netting of derivatives provides no protection against market risk, and the collateral and margin calls associated with these swings is both pro-cyclical and dangerous. The paper argues the OECD case that the best way to deal with all of these issues – both materially reducing the risk that arises from too-big-to fail while encouraging well-capitalised retail banks get on with the job of lending to create jobs – is to separate retail banking from securities business and ensure the former is (particularly in Europe) well capitalised. In this respect the paper argues that the non-operating holding company approach with ring-fenced subsidiaries (close to the Vickers proposal in the UK) is perhaps a better model than the US Volcker rule.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2012-5k91hbvgfq20
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  • 14
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    Solving the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 201-224 | volume:2011 | year:2011 | number:2 | pages:201-224
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 201-224
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:201-224
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This paper examines the policies that have been proposed to solve the financial and sovereign debt crisis in Europe, against the backdrop of what the real underlying problems are: extreme differences in competitiveness; the absence of a growth strategy; sovereign, household and corporate debt at high levels in the very countries that are least competitive; and banks that have become too large, driven by dangerous trends in ‘capital markets banking’. The paper explains how counterparty risk spreads between banks and how the sovereign and banking crises are serving to exacerbate each other. Of all the policies proposed, the paper highlights those that are coherent and the magnitudes involved if the euro is not to fracture.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2011-5k9cswmzsdwj
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  • 15
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    Global SIFIs, Derivatives and Financial Stability (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 167-200
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 167-200
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This paper looks at Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (GSIFIs) and the global derivatives business. The derivatives business has grown exponentially versus global GDP in sharp contrast to the primary securities on which derivatives are based. Inter-connectedness risk and unconstrained potential leverage remain the most urgent tasks still facing the financial reform process. Concentrated oligopolistic derivatives markets and the ability of banks to shift promises and/or use their IRB models to estimate ex-ante risk capital – capital that might be needed in the event of a crisis – undermine the intent of financial reform. Nor do netting and clearing eliminate aggregate risk of losses and bankruptcy. The paper repeats the need to implement two of the OECD’s long-standing reform recommendations: a binding leverage ratio based on equity and the separation of high risk investment banking activities from traditional banking. A derivatives transactions tax is also put forward as a possible option that would counter the cross-subsidisation of risk from the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) problem.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2011-5kg55qw0qsbv
    URL: Volltext
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  • 16
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    A Market Perspective on the European Sovereign Debt and Banking Crisis (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 9-36
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 9-36
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Europe has been beset by an interrelated banking crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Bond spreads faced by Greece and Ireland, and to a lesser extent Portugal followed by Spain, have increased. This paper explores these issues from the perspective of financial markets, focusing mainly on the four countries in the frontline of these pressures: Greece and Portugal, on the one hand, where the problems are primarily fiscal in nature; and Ireland and Spain, on the other, where banking problems related to the property boom and bust have been the key moving part. The paper first examines the probabilities of default implicit in observable market spreads and considers these calculations against sovereign debt dynamics. It then explores the implications of the interaction between bank losses and fiscal deficits on the one hand, and the feedback that any debt haircuts anticipated by markets could have on bank solvency. The study finds that market-implied sovereign default probabilities do in fact discriminate quite clearly between countries based on five criteria that affect the probability of debt restructuring. The discussion highlights some implications for banking system balance sheets of expected losses and shows the potential impact on them of sovereign restructuring implicit in market analysis. While the paper does not make any recommendations for policy action, it does explore a range of policy options and the implications each might have for the financial markets. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G15, G18, G21, H06, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: financial crisis, sovereign risks, public deficits and debt, bond markets, banks.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5kggc0z2hm9r
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  • 17
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    The elephant in the room: The need to deal with what banks do (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-27
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-27
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Contagion risk and counterparty failure have been the main hallmarks of the current crisis. While some large diversified banks that focused mainly on commercial banking survived very well, others suffered crippling losses. Sound corporate governance and strong riskmanagement culture should enable banks to avoid excessive leverage and risk taking. The question is whether there is a better way, via leverage rules or rules on the structures of large conglomerates, to ensure volatile investment banking functions do not dominate the future stability of the commercial banking and financial intermediation environment that is so critical for economic activity. While there is a main consensus on the need for reform of capital rules, dynamic provisioning, better co-operation for future crises, centralised trading of derivatives etc., the question is whether such reforms will be sufficient if they do not address contagion and counterparty risk directly. The world outside of policy making is waiting for a fundamental reassessment of banks’ business models: what banks are supposed to do and how they compete with each other. It is the “elephant in the room” on which some policy makers have not yet had the time or inclination to focus. This article emphasises not only the need for transparent and comparable accounting rules and for improvements in corporate governance, but also supports the imposition of a group leverage ratio to provide a binding capital constraint (that Basel riskweighted rules have been unable to achieve) and proposes a Non- Operating Holding Company Structure (NOHC) – reforms that are essential to deal with contagion and counterparty risk that are so integral to the ‘too big to fail’ issue.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2009-art11-en
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  • 18
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    Thinking beyond Basel III : Necessary Solutions for Capital and Liquidity (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 9-33
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 9-33
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: In previous studies, the OECD has identified the main hallmarks of the crisis as too-big-to-fail institutions that took on too much risk; insolvency resulting from contagion and counterparty risk; the lack of regulatory and supervisory integration; and the lack of efficient resolution regimes. This article looks at how the Basel III proposals address these issues, helping to reduce the chance of another crisis like the current one. The Basel III capital proposals have some very useful elements, notably a leverage ratio, a capital buffer and the proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses. However, this report also identifies some major concerns. For example, Basel III does not properly address the most fundamental regulatory problem that the “promises” that make up any financial system are not treated equally. This issue has many implications for the reform process, including reform of the structure of the supervision and regulation process and whether the shadow banking system should be incorporated into the regulatory framework – and, if so, how. Finally, modifications in the overall riskweighted asset framework are suggested that would deal with concentration issues.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5km7k9tpcjmn
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  • 19
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    Dealing with the crisis and thinking about the exit strategy (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 11-28
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 18 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 11-28
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This article looks at the stages of crisis management and some of the different degrees of transparency on losses and risks in the US and Europe. It also compares alternative approaches to dealing with impaired assets used in the USA and Europe. Exposure to off-balance losses remains a key issue. Europe, surprisingly, has been and remains the major issuer of collateralised synthetic obligations that have been so prominent in the crisis. The capital needs of banks over the next few years is examined, and great uncertainties remain due to the unknown extent to which off-balance sheet vehicles will need to be consolidated. Finally, the requirements of longer-run reform are outlined.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2009-art1-en
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  • 20
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    The current financial crisis : Causes and policy issues (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-21
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-21
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This article treats some ideas and issues that are part of ongoing reflection at the OECD. They were first raised in a major research article for the Reserve Bank of Australia conference in July 2008, and benefited from policy discussion in and around that conference. One fundamental cause of the crisis was a change in the business model of banking, mixing credit with equity culture. When this model was combined with complex interactions from incentives emanating from macro policies, changes in regulations, taxation, and corporate governance, the current crisis became the inevitable result. The paper points to the need for far-reaching reform for a more sustainable situation in the future.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2008-art10-en
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  • 21
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    The subprime crisis : Size, deleveraging and some policy options (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 29-53
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 29-53
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper revises our previous USD 300 bn estimate for mortgage related losses to a range of USD 350-420 bn. In doing this the paper explicitly rejects the previous approach based on implied defaults from ABX pricing, because these prices are affected by illiquidity and extreme volatility; they will likely lead to misleading estimates of losses. Instead it builds a proper default model approach and allows for recovery of collateral via house sales over time. The paper separates out the losses due to commercial banks in the US, and goes on to look at the implied deleveraging required to meet capital standards. It could take 6-12 months for banks to offset losses via earnings alone, depending on Fed rate cuts and the dividend policy of banks. Since even more capital than this is required if banks were to expand their balance sheets, the paper looks at possibilities for capital injections from groups like sovereign wealth funds; and it also looks at a novel plan for the use of public money with an RTC-style approach and the issue of zero coupon bonds. Finally the paper looks at the issues of moral hazard, the likely size of the impact in Europe and Asia and non-bank corporate leverage.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2008-art2-en
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  • 22
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    Sovereign wealth & pension fund issues (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 117-132
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 16 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 117-132
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are pools of assets owned and managed directly or indirectly by governments to achieve national objectives. These funds have raised concerns about: i) financial stability; ii) corporate governance and iii) political interference and protectionism. At the same time governments have formed other large pools of capital to finance public pension systems, i.e. Public Pension Reserve Funds (PPRFs). SWFs are set up to diversify and improve the return on foreign exchange reserves or commodity revenue, and to shield the domestic economy from fluctuations in commodity prices. PPRFs are set up to contribute to financing pay-as-you-go pension plans. The total of SWF pools is estimated at around USD 2.6 trillion in 2006/7, and is getting bigger rapidly, owing to current exchange rate policies and oil prices. The total amount for PPRFs is even larger, around USD 4.4 trillion in 2006/7, if the US Trust Fund is included (USD 2.2 trillion if excluded). SWFs and PPRFs share some characteristics, hence give rise to similar concerns. However, their objectives, investment strategies, sources of funding and transparency requirements differ. There is concern about strategic and political objectives of SWFs, and their impact on exchange rates and asset prices. But SWFs also provide mechanisms for breaking up concentrations of portfolios that increase risk. Enhancing governance and transparency of SWFs is important, but such considerations have to be weighed against commercial objectives.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2008-art5-en
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  • 23
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    Structured Products : Implications for Financial Markets (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 27-57
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 31 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 27-57
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper looks at financial market innovation and how it has led to the rapid growth of structured products. It explores the mechanisms that come into play as assets inside these products (mortgages, credit card receivables, etc.) suffer losses. The potential size of such losses is currently concerning financial markets, and the paper looks at various ways to quantify the issues and where, going forward, pressures are most likely to arise. The problem is seen mainly as a stock adjustment issue (related to inventories of assets etc.) that is going to require time to set right. Time could well be more important than the cost of capital. The idea of a super fund to buy up unwanted assets should be seen in this context. The paper goes on to look at financial market implications, including the credit supply process, spreads, and the dollar.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2007-art13-en
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  • 24
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    The Private Equity Boom : Causes and Policy Issues (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 59-86
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 33 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 59-86
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Private equity, by focusing on under-performing companies that can be transformed and subsequently re-floated, fosters rapid corporate restructuring – enhancing productivity. M&A and private equity deals are very strong at present, and private equity use of leverage is accelerating sharply...
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2007-art4-en
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  • 25
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    An Overview of Hedge Funds and Structured Products : Issues in Leverage and Risk (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 37-57
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 37-57
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The size of the hedge fund sector, using IOSCO sources and results from responses to an OECD Questionnaire on Hedge Funds, is around USD 1.4 trillion in assets under management (AUM). While this does not seem that large compared to total global AUM, the hedge fund share of trading turnover (augmented by leverage and investment style) is much greater than its share of global AUM....
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2007-art3-en
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