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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Investment as a transmission mechanism from weak demand to weak supply and the post-crisis productivity slowdown (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1466
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Produktionspotenzial ; Kapitalstock ; Investition ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Akzelerator ; Hysterese ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration of potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. For the most severely affected economies, the financial crisis is estimated to have reduced potential output by more than 2% via this transmission mechanism. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, over a period when the use of conventional macro policy instruments was constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competition-friendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/0c62cc26-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Links between weak investment and the slowdown in productivity and potential output growth across the OECD (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1304
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Produktionspotenzial ; Investition ; Kapitalstock ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The OECD framework for estimating potential output is combined with previous OECD empirical research to analyse the causes of recent weak productivity growth. Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis, the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration in potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. Circumstantial evidence suggests that a misallocation of capital in the pre-crisis period also contributed to the slowdown in capital stock growth, particularly among the most severely affected countries. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, at a time when the use of conventional macro policy instruments has become increasingly constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competitionfriendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlwvz0smq45-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1294
    Keywords: Produktionspotenzial ; Produktionsfunktion ; Arbeitsproduktivität ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Finanzkrise ; OECD-Staaten ; Employment ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisions to OECD published estimates of the output gap around the period of the financial crisis have been exceptionally large, with by far the largest contribution to these revisions coming from the labour-efficiency gap. The current paper investigates a modification to the standard OECD production function method for deriving potential output, which involves an additional cyclical adjustment in the derivation of trend labour efficiency. The additional adjustment helps to reduce the occurrence of large end-point revisions and of sign switches between the initial and final estimates of the labour-efficiency gap. The variables which are most often found to be useful in providing this cyclical adjustment of labour efficiency are manufacturing capacity utilisation and the investment share. However, for a few countries additional variables – house prices and credit – have been used to provide the cyclical adjustment, although this raises an issue as to whether the cyclical adjustment should be limited to a core set of variables to ensure the method remains reasonably homogenous across countries. Recent improvements to the specification of the Phillips curve, which imply a tighter fit between the unemployment gap and inflation, should also reduce end-point revisions to the unemployment gap in future.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jm0qwpqmz34-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Cardiac arrest or dizzy spell : why is world trade so weak and what can policy do about it? (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper no. 18 (September 2016)
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.18
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Betriebliche Wertschöpfung ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently. There are both structural and cyclical reasons for the slowdown. A deceleration in the rate of trade liberalisation post 2000 was initially obscured by the ongoing expansion of global value chains and associated rapid emergence of China in the world economy. Post the financial crisis global value chains started to unwind and, possibly associated with this, Chinese and Asian trade weakened markedly. These structural changes were compounded by insipid demand due to anaemic growth of global investment, as well as intra-euro area trade, both of which are trade intensive. The slowdown in world trade growth post crisis, if sustained, will have serious consequences for the medium-term growth of productivity and living standards. Trade policy has significant potential to reinvigorate trade growth but the political environment for reforms is difficult, with a growing polarisation of OECD electorates into pro- and anti- globalisation supporters. Further trade and investment policy liberalisation should be introduced as part of a wider package of structural reforms to spread the benefits of freer trade and investment more widely.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlr2h45q532-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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