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  • 2015-2019
  • 2000-2004  (3)
  • Servén, Luis  (3)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (3)
  • Financial Literacy  (3)
  • Social Protections and Labor
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries (2002)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (24 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Servén, Luis Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Servén examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country-time series data set. He builds a GARCH-based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative impact on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The impact of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems. This paper—a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to assess the effects of macroeconomic volatility. The author may be contacted at lservenworldbank.org
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global Transmission of Interest Rates : Monetary Independence and the Currency Regime (2000)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schmukler, Sergio Global Transmission of Interest Rates
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Regime ; Currency Regimes ; Currency Risks ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rates ; Independent Monetary Policy ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; International Monetary Economics ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Independence ; Monetary Policy ; Nominal Anchor ; Private Sector Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Regime ; Currency Regimes ; Currency Risks ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rates ; Independent Monetary Policy ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; International Monetary Economics ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Independence ; Monetary Policy ; Nominal Anchor ; Private Sector Development ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Regime ; Currency Regimes ; Currency Risks ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economies ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rate ; Flexible Exchange Rates ; Independent Monetary Policy ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; International Monetary Economics ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Independence ; Monetary Policy ; Nominal Anchor ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: August 2000 - Hikes in U.S. interest rates in 1999-2000 have started to spill over to other economies' interest rates, which in many countries have risen to reflect the higher U.S. rates. Are countries with flexible exchange rates better able to isolate their domestic interest rates from this type of negative international shock? Less and less so, as economies become more integrated. Frankel, Schmukler, and Servén empirically study the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates and how that sensitivity is affected by a country's choice of exchange rate regime. To establish the empirical regularities, they use a reduced-form empirical approach to compute both panel and single-country estimates of interest rate sensitivity for a large sample of developing and industrial economies between 1970 and 1999. When using the full sample, they find that: · Interest rates are typically lower in economies with fixed exchange rates than in those with flexible exchange rates. · More rigid currency regimes tend to exhibit higher transmission than more flexible regimes. In many cases in the 1990s, however, the authors cannot reject full transmission (a slope coefficient equal to 1), even for several countries with floating regimes. The data suggest an upward time trend in the degree to which domestic interest rates are sensitive to international capital movements and developing economies' increased financial integration with the rest of the world. As a result, country-specific estimates for the 1990s reveal few cases of less-than-full transmission of international interest rates to domestic rates, regardless of the currency regime. Country-specific results suggest that only large industrial countries can (or choose to) benefit from independent monetary policy. During the 1990s, interest rates in European countries were fully sensitive to German interest rates but insensitive to U.S. interest rates. This paper-a joint product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group, and the Chief Economist Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the Bank to understand the functioning of alternative currency arrangements. The authors may be contacted at jeffrey_frankelharvard.edu, sschmukler@worldbank.org, or lserven@worldbank.org
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    External Sustainability : A Stock Equilibrium Perspective (2000)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman External Sustainability
    Keywords: Assets ; Capital Controls ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Imbalances ; Current Account Surplus ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Investors ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Condition ; External Deficits ; External Position ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Foreign Asset ; Foreign Asset Positions ; Imbalances ; Investment Opportunities ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Long-Run Equilibrium ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Risk ; Risks ; Assets ; Capital Controls ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Imbalances ; Current Account Surplus ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Investors ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Condition ; External Deficits ; External Position ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Foreign Asset ; Foreign Asset Positions ; Imbalances ; Investment Opportunities ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Long-Run Equilibrium ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Risk ; Risks ; Assets ; Capital Controls ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Imbalances ; Current Account Surplus ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Investors ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equilibrium ; Equilibrium Condition ; External Deficits ; External Position ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Foreign Asset ; Foreign Asset Positions ; Imbalances ; Investment Opportunities ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Long-Run Equilibrium ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Risk ; Risks
    Abstract: The 1994 crisis in Mexico, developments in East Asia, and persistent turmoil in world financial markets have dramatized the role of external imbalances in macroeconomic crises. Some believe that the current account should be kept from rising beyond a sustainable level, some that a current account surplus is the only solid external position. Can those rules of thumb be justified analytically? - Calderón, Loayza, and Servén consider external sustainability from the perspective of equilibrium in net foreign asset positions. Under their approach, an external situation is sustainable if it is consistent with international and domestic investors' achieving their desired portfolio allocation across countries. They develop a reduced-form model of net foreign asset positions whose long-run equilibrium condition expresses the ratio of net foreign assets to the total wealth of domestic residents as a negative function of investment returns in the country relative to the rest of the world, a positive function of investment risk, and an inverse function of the ratio of foreign-owned to domestically owned wealth. To estimate this equilibrium condition, the authors use a newly constructed data set of foreign asset and liability stocks for a large group of industrial and developing countries, from the 1960s to the present. They also develop summary measures of country returns and risks. Their econometric methodology is an application of the Pooled Mean Group estimator recently developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999), which allows for unrestricted cross-country heterogeneity in short-term dynamics while imposing a common long-run specification. The estimation results lend considerable support to the model, especially when applied to countries with low capital controls or high or upper-middle income. The results for countries with high capital controls and, especially, lower-income countries are less supportive of the stock equilibrium model. As a byproduct of the model's estimation, the authors obtain estimates of the long-run equilibrium ratios of net foreign assets to wealth, conditional on the observed values of the country's relative returns, risks, and wealth. Then, for a selected group of industrial and developing countries, they evaluate the extent to which actual ratios diverge from their long-run counterparts - and hence the sustainability of current net foreign asset positions. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort to assess the sustainability of the external accounts of the major countries in the region. The authors may be contacted at nloayzacondor.bcentral.cl or lserven@worldbank.org
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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