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  • 2010-2014  (17)
  • Égert, Balázs  (16)
  • Safari, an O'Reilly Media Company.
  • Economics  (17)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Strengthening competition in Poland (2014)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1125
    Keywords: Wettbewerbsaufsicht ; Deregulierung ; Wettbewerb ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Produktivität ; Polen ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Industry and Services ; Poland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Poland’s productivity has grown strongly over the past decade, and efforts to reduce the regulatory burden have been significant. Despite impressive progress, product market regulation remains more burdensome than in most OECD countries, partly due to the importance of red tape and the level of state involvement in the economy. Further reduction in red tape and pursuing privatisation in competitive markets would increase competitive pressures and ensure neutrality, notably in public procurement processes. Economic rents in many sectors seem high, as stringent entry regulations, regulatory barriers and inefficient bankruptcy procedures induce significant resource misallocation. A welcome deregulation of professional services is ongoing, and the government plans to further ease firm registrations and reform bankruptcy procedures. The independence of the sector regulators in network industries and the powers of the Competition Authority can still be enhanced, as the reform efforts in these sectors remain patchy. The dominant positions of the incumbents and the failure of network sector regulators to introduce a level playing field in order to secure third-party access to the sectoral infrastructure and allow new entry in the competitive segments are another main issue. The advantages of being considered a farmer are also slowing the consolidation process in the agricultural sector. This Working Paper relates to the 2014 OECD Economic Survey of Poland (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-poland.htm).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jz2pwzpzvkg-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fiscal federalism and its impact on economic activity, public investment and the performance of educational systems (2013)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1051
    Keywords: 1995-2011 ; Finanzbeziehungen ; Nationaleinkommen ; Produktivität ; Öffentliche Investition ; Schule ; OECD-Staaten ; Education ; Governance ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Intergovernmental fiscal frameworks usually reflect fundamental societal choices and history and are not foremost geared towards achieving economic policy objectives. Yet, like most institutional arrangements, fiscal relations affect the behaviour of firms, households and governments and thereby economic activity. This paper presents empirical research on the potential effects of fiscal decentralisation on a set of outcomes such as GDP, productivity, public investment and school performance. The results can be summarised as follows: decentralisation, as measured by revenue or spending shares, is positively associated with GDP per capita levels. The impact seems to be stronger for revenue decentralisation than for spending decentralisation. Decentralisation is strongly and positively associated with educational outcomes as measured by international student assessments (PISA). While educational functions can be delegated either to sub-central governments (SCG) or to schools, the results suggest that both strategies appear to be equally beneficial for educational performance. Finally, investment in physical and – especially – human capital as a share of general government spending is significantly higher in more decentralised countries.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k4695840w7b-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The efficiency and equity of the tax and transfer system in France (2013)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1038
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; Umverteilung ; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen ; Steuergerechtigkeit ; Frankreich ; cash transfer ; Taxation ; Economics ; France ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Taxes and cash transfers reduce income inequality more in France than elsewhere in the OECD, because of the large size of the flows involved. But the system is complex overall. Its effectiveness could be enhanced in many ways, for example so as to achieve the same amount of redistribution at lower cost. The French tax code should be simplified and changed less frequently. High statutory rates are coupled with a wide range of effective tax rates resulting from a multitude of tax expenditures. There is a need for base broadening combined with lower rates throughout the system, including VAT. The tax wedge on labour is high, except at the bottom of the wage distribution, which can reduce worker participation and job offers. Greater neutrality both across different capital asset classes but also within specific taxes, and shifting taxes from labour and capital inputs to environmental and property taxes would improve economic outcomes. Likewise, the system of social and family benefits should be simplified to enhance transparency and consistency. Eliminating schemes that let people leave the labour market early, abolishing the pension privileges of specific occupational groups and internalising the costs of survivors’ pension benefits would increase fairness while at the same time generating savings. Better labour-market performance would result from increasing job-search incentives and shortening the parental leave allowance. This Working Paper relates to the 2013 OECD Economic Survey of France (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/France).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k487n4jqqg5-en
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Challenges to sustain Poland's growth model (2013)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (13 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1054
    Keywords: Wirtschaftswachstum ; Produktionspotenzial ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Polen ; Economics ; Poland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Notwithstanding a very strong economic performance over the past decade or so, Poland’s per capita income is substantially lower in comparison with the United States and per capita income growth will be sharply slowing down over the coming decades under the scenario of gradual policy changes mostly because of population ageing. Bold structural reforms are needed to boost labour productivity and labour resource utilisation. This paper argues that in order to increase labour resource utilisation, policy action should focus on raising the effective retirement age, encourage childbearing and lower high unemployment rates for young people and the unskilled via increased and more efficient active labour market policies. Labour productivity could be boosted via rendering the tax system more growth friendly, reducing product market regulation (including heavy government involvement in the economy, high administrative costs of running and starting businesses and increasing competition in uncompetitive segments of the economy). Investing in human capital and encouraging innovation are also essential for long-term productivity growth.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k452kltcxxq-en
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The 90 % public debt threshold : the rise and fall of a stylished fact (2013)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1055
    Keywords: 1960 - 2009 ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Governance ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper puts the original Reinhart-Rogoff dataset, made public by Herndon et al. (2013), to a formal econometric test to pin down debt thresholds endogenously. We show that the nonlinear relation from debt to growth is not very robust. Taken with a pinch of salt, our results suggest, however, that a negative association between debt and growth may set in at debt levels as low as 20% of GDP. Further (and greater) thresholds may exist but their magnitude is highly uncertain. For general government debt (1960-2009), the threshold beyond which this negative relation kicks in is considerably higher at about 50%. Finally, individual country estimates reveal a large amount of cross-country heterogeneity. For some countries including the United States, a nonlinear negative link can be detected at about 30% of GDP. For others, the thresholds are surrounded by a great amount of uncertainty or no nonlinearities can be established. This instability may be a result of threshold effects changing over time within countries and depending on economic conditions, not captured in our estimations. Overall, our results can be seen as a formal econometric confirmation that the 90% public debt threshold is not in the Reinhart-Rogoff data. But our results also seem to suggest that public debt be associated with poor economic performance at fairly moderate public debt levels. If high debt results in low growth, an issue of causality that is not systematically examined in this paper, then this suggests rather low debt-GDP ratios would be appropriate. Furthermore, the absence of threshold effects or low estimated thresholds may not preclude the emergence of further threshold effects, especially as public debt levels are rising to unprecedentedly high levels.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k452kln1s6l-en
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Intergovernmental grants, pro- or counter-cyclical? (2013)
    Paris : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (15 S.)
    Series Statement: Fiscal consolidation across government levels 3
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1072
    Series Statement: Fiscal consolidation across government levels
    Keywords: Finanzausgleich ; Finanzbeziehungen ; Antizyklische Finanzpolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Taxation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical analysis that measures the cyclical properties of intergovernmental transfers (or grants). Modelling a fiscal policy reaction function this paper tests whether the transfers systems in OECD countries are pro- or counter-cyclical, i.e. whether they offset cyclical fluctuations of sub-central economies or, on the contrary, exacerbate them. Regression results suggest that transfer systems tend to be pro-cyclical in general and in more than half of OECD countries they tend to destabilise sub-central budgets. Transfer pro-cyclicality may be the result of several factors: Transfer spending is often determined as a share of central government tax revenue, which itself tends to fluctuate with the cycle. Moreover, many grants are matching sub-central spending and hence tend to exacerbate fluctuations of that sub-central spending. Pro-cyclical grants could partly explain the often observed pro-cyclicality of subcentral government fiscal policy.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k43nxqrlmtf-en
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Efficacité et équité du système de prélèvements et de transferts en France (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 p.) , 21 x 29.7cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1038
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe The Efficiency and Equity of the Tax and Transfer System in France
    Keywords: Taxation ; Economics ; France
    Abstract: Les impôts et les transferts en espèces réduisent en France les inégalités de revenu plus que dans beaucoup d’autres pays de l’OCDE en raison de la taille importante des flux concernés. Mais le système est complexe dans son ensemble. Son efficacité pourrait être améliorée à bien des égards, par exemple pour atteindre le même degré de redistribution à moindre coût. Le code des impôts devrait être simplifié et moins fréquemment modifié. Les taux statutaires élevés vont de pair avec un large éventail de taux d’imposition effectifs résultant d’une multitude de niches fiscales et sociales. Il est nécessaire d’élargir l’assiette fiscale, y compris pour la TVA, et de baisser les taux dans l’ensemble du système. Le coin fiscal sur les revenus du travail est élevé sauf dans le bas de la distribution des salaires, ce qui peut réduire la participation au marché du travail ainsi que les offres d’emploi. Une plus grande neutralité fiscale à l’intérieur et entre les différentes catégories d’actifs, et le déplacement des prélèvements sur le travail et le capital vers les taxes environnementales et les taxes sur la propriété immobilière permettraient d’améliorer les performances économiques. De la même façon, le système de prestations sociales devrait être simplifié pour gagner en transparence et en cohérence. La suppression des dispositifs permettant les sorties précoces du marché du travail, l’élimination des régimes spéciaux de retraite et l’internalisation du coût des pensions de réversion augmenteraient l’équité tout en générant des économies. Les performances du marché du travail pourraient être améliorées en augmentant les incitations à la recherche d’emploi et en raccourcissant l’allocation de congé parental. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la France 2013 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/France).
    DOI: 10.1787/5k487n499bq6-fr
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects : myth or reality? (2012)
    Paris : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 993
    Keywords: 1790-2009 ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The economics profession seems to increasingly endorse the existence of a strongly negative nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth. Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) were the first to point out that a public debt-to-GDP ratio higher than 90% of GDP is associated with considerably lower economic performance in advanced and emerging economies alike. A string of recent empirical papers broadly validates this threshold value. This paper seeks to contribute to this literature by putting a variant of the Reinhart-Rogoff dataset to a formal econometric testing. Using nonlinear threshold models, there is some evidence in favour of a negative nonlinear relationship between debt and growth. But these results are very sensitive to the time dimension and country coverage considered, data frequency (annual data vs. multi-year averages) and assumptions on the minimum number of observations required in each nonlinear regime. We show that when non-linearity is detected, the negative nonlinear effect kicks in at much lower levels of public debt (between 20% and 60% of GDP). These results, based on bivariate regressions on secular time series, are largely confirmed on a shorter dataset (1960-2010) when using a multivariate growth framework that accounts for traditional drivers of long-term economic growth and model uncertainty. Nonlinear effects might be more complex and difficult to model than previously thought. Instability might be a result of nonlinear effects changing over time, across countries and economic conditions. Further research is certainly needed to fully understand the link between public debt and growth.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k918xk8d4zn-en
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    Climate change policies in Poland : minimising abatement costs (2012)
    Paris : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 953
    Keywords: Klimawandel ; Klimapolitik ; Polen ; Environment ; Economics ; Poland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Poland is on track to meet its international greenhouse-gas emissions commitments. However, it will need to cut emissions significantly in the future, if the European Commission’s proposal on the Low Carbon Roadmap is adopted. Policies should ensure that the country’s substantial reduction potential, mainly linked to the energy sector’s high emissions intensity, and implying overall abatement costs above the EU-average, is realised in a least-cost fashion by imposing an economy-wide single carbon price. This stands in contrast with current explicit and implicit carbon prices, which vary widely across different sectors of the economy. Crucial to least-cost abatement is also a high responsiveness to the EU-ETS carbon price signal. While Poland has made good progress in complying with EU regulations related to the energy sector, the large share of public ownership and the lack of effective separation between electricity producers and distributors may blur the price signal for investment decisions in generation capacity. The isolation of the Polish electricity market implies a need for more investment in low-emission technologies in Poland to achieve a given emissions-reduction target, whereas a deeper integration with neighbouring electricity markets would spread the burden more efficiently across countries. The cost-efficiency advantage of uniform support to renewables via green certificates should be retained to minimise abatement costs. Government policies aimed at a higher share of nuclear power and natural gas from shale formations need to take fully into account tail risks and the short- and long-term environmental costs of the use of the former and fully consider environmental risks related to extraction of the latter. Energy efficiency policies can help to address market failure but should not be allowed to distort relative carbon prices. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Review of Poland (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Poland).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k9b7bz18m0x-en
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Money Laundering, 3rd Edition (2011)
    [Erscheinungsort nicht ermittelbar] : CRC Press | Boston, MA : Safari
    Details
    ISBN: 9780429251306 , 0429251300 , 9780511324840 , 0511324847 , 9781439869147 , 1439869146 , 9781466514157 , 1466514159 , 9781439869123
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 online resource (430 pages)
    Edition: 3rd edition
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 363.25/968
    Keywords: Money laundering investigation ; Money laundering Prevention ; Business enterprises ; Finance ; Economics ; Commerce ; Electronic books ; local ; Blanchiment de l'argent ; Enquêtes ; États-Unis ; Money laundering investigation ; Money laundering ; Prevention ; United States
    Abstract: Many changes have occurred in the twenty-five years that have passed since the enactment of the Money Laundering Control Act of 1986. The law has been amended, new underlying crimes have been added, and court decisions have modified its scope. The Act remains an important tool in combating criminal activity. Now in its third edition, Money Laundering: A Guide for Criminal Investigators covers the basics of finding ill-gotten gains, linking them to the criminal, and seizing them. Providing a clear understanding of money laundering practices, it explains the investigative and legislative processes that are essential in detecting and circumventing this illegal and dangerous activity. Highlights of the Third Edition include Important court decisions and changes in federal law since the Second Edition New trends in crime and terrorism financing The rise of money laundering in connecting with major frauds, including the Bernie Madoff case Law and policy shifts related to terrorism and financing since the Obama administration New methods for financial intelligence and the filing of Suspicious Activity Reports How changes in technology have enabled launderers to move funds more easily and anonymously Knowledge of the techniques used to investigate these cases and a full understanding of the laws and regulations that serve as the government's weapons in this fight are essential for the criminal investigator. This volume arms those tasked with finding and tracing illegal proceeds with this critical knowledge, enabling them to thwart illegal profiteering by finding the paper trail.
    Note: Online resource; Title from title page (viewed December 19, 2011) , Mode of access: World Wide Web.
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  • 11
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    Online Resource
    Politiques environnementales de la France: Internaliser les externalités globales et locales (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: French
    Pages: 48 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.859
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. France's Environmental Policies: Internalising Global and Local Externalities
    Keywords: Environment ; Economics ; France
    Abstract: Les autorités ont défini un programme très ambitieux en matière de politique de l’environnement, dont les grands axes sont, outre la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES), la lutte contre la pollution atmosphérique locale et la pollution de l’eau, la gestion des déchets et la préservation de la biodiversité. Les lois adoptées dans le sillage du Grenelle de l’environnement pour favoriser la transition vers une économie sobre en carbone ciblent la production d’électricité, l’industrie, les transports, la gestion des déchets, le bâtiment et l’agriculture. Le gouvernement est déterminé à réduire les émissions de GES de 75 % d’ici à 2050, ce qui constitue un objectif ambitieux. Cette étude s’attache à évaluer les politiques sous l’angle de leur rapport coût-efficacité. Dans ce contexte, une attention particulière doit être accordée aux possibilités d’imposer un prix unique du carbone après la censure de la contribution carbone par le Conseil constitutionnel, aux enjeux de la production d’électricité d’origine renouvelable et nucléaire, aux moyens de faire baisser l’intensité carbone dans le secteur résidentiel et les transports, à la façon d’améliorer la gestion des déchets, ainsi qu’à la question de savoir si les coûts externes liés à l’utilisation d’engrais et de pesticides sont convenablement pris en compte dans la gestion de l’eau. Si des avancées considérables ont été réalisées sur la voie d’une économie « verte », il reste à relever un important défi en internalisant les externalités globales et locales dans tous les secteurs de l’économie, ce qui permettrait d’être plus efficace en termes de coûts/bénéfices.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kgdpn0cxzd2-fr
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  • 12
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    Réduire la dette publique française : Les options de l'assainissement budgétaire (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: French
    Pages: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.858
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Bringing French Public Debt Down: The Options for Fiscal Consolidation
    Keywords: Economics ; France
    Abstract: France has a track record of persistent general government deficits, partly reflecting pro-cyclical fiscal policies in upswings. This has resulted in a quadrupling of its public debt-to-GDP ratio since the 1970s to above 80% of GDP. Reducing public debt is crucial because a high level of public debt may hamper long-term growth and may have a direct impact on fiscal sustainability if long-term interest rates rise. Bringing back public debt to 60% of GDP even by 2030 would require a fiscal effort of 4 to 5 percentage points of GDP (under the assumption of unchanged long-term rates), implying permanent primary general government surpluses, which is very ambitious in view of French fiscal history since 1970. The government’s consolidation programme, which is aimed at reducing the general government deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013, represents around two-thirds of this effort. This study analyses how fiscal governance could be improved by the creation of a structural deficit rule and looks at ways the public deficit could be lowered. With France already having a very large public sector, most of the effort should be borne by holding down spending. Better control of the public wage bill, increasing public-sector efficiency and tackling age-related costs are the obvious candidates to contain expenditure. On the revenue side, there is significant potential for cutting tax expenditures. Furthermore, eliminating distortions in the tax base would encourage economic growth.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kgdpn0x92jg-fr
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  • 13
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    Public Policies and Investment in Network Infrastructure (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 1-23
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 23 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 1-23
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: How can public policy influence investment in infrastructure in network industries? Network industries rely mainly on fixed networks to deliver services, with investment being lumpy and largely irreversible. As a result, public policies – such as public provision, the introduction of competition and the regulatory environment – can potentially have an important impact on investment behaviour, with the net effect depending on the extent that policies boost socially-productive investment or reduce inefficient investment. Drawing on responses to a unique questionnaire assessing public policy in the network sectors, the information in this paper presents a systematic picture of relevant policies in place across OECD countries. Econometric analysis – both at the sectoral and firm level – finds that public policies can have significant quantitative effects. In particular, the introduction of competitive pressures through the reduction of barriers to entry and the combination of regulator independence and incentive regulation can promote investment in the sector.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2011-5kg51mlvk6r6
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  • 14
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    Modeling Institutions, Start-ups and Productivity during Transition (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.773
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The transition paths from plan to market have varied markedly across countries. Central and Eastern European and the Baltic countries, which opted for a fast and profound transformation of their institutions, rapidly narrowed the productivity gap with advanced economies. In contrast, in countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, which embarked on reforms later and contented with less depth, the productivity gap remains substantial. While the literature has focused mainly on empirical studies, this paper develops a dynamic search model of the firm start-ups that is consistent with the above trends. The model shows that an enabling institutional set up stimulates start-ups of highly productive firms at an earlier stage of transition, underscoring the importance of reforms. The role of the state sector as an employer during transition rises in countries where reforming institutions is particularly costly.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmfkz5rk39s-en
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  • 15
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    Counter-cyclical Economic Policy (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 103 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.760
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: What changes are needed to make counter-cyclical economic policy more effective in the aftermath of the recent crisis? An important lesson from the severity of the recent recession is that policy in various areas will have to be more prudent during upswings and to build in greater safety margins to be able to react to large adverse shocks. In the period leading up to the crisis, cycles became more synchronised, while asset prices became more volatile. Recent events also underline the difficulties encountered in detecting and reacting to asset price misalignments. The confluence of the turn in asset prices, financial market crisis and slump in trade challenged the ability of counter-cyclical policies to cope with the severe downturn, although experience reveals that countries where the fiscal position was sound and inflation under control were better able to cushion the shocks. Furthermore, robust micro-prudential regulation can help the financial sector withstand shocks. In this light, existing policies should be strengthened to ensure that there is room for manoeuvre going into a downturn. In order to deal with similar shocks in the future, macroeconomic and financial sector policies should consider precautionary policy settings and macro-prudential regulation to address systemic threats to stability.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmfw36tj97h-en
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  • 16
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    Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD : Pro- or Counter-cyclical? (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 48 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.763
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper analyses the reaction of fiscal policy to the cycle in OECD countries. The results suggest that while overall government balances were counter-cyclical in the past and more so in economic downturns than in upswings, discretionary fiscal policy was neutral on average. However, discretionary fiscal policy appears to react to the cycle in a non-linear fashion: fiscal policy in countries with high public debt and high government deficits tends to be pro-cyclical, while countries that have low public debt and that have surpluses are more likely to conduct a counter-cyclical fiscal policy. The paper also finds that asset prices have a significant impact on government balances.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmft7pthb27-en
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  • 17
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    Catching-up and Inflation in Europe : Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and Other Culprits (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.792
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel’s Law may hold during periods of very fast growth. We interpret these results as a sign that price level convergence comes from goods, market and non-market service prices. Furthermore, we find that the Phillips curve flattens with a decline in the inflation rate, that inflation persistence increases and that commodity prices have a stronger effect on inflation in a higher inflation environment.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmblscvdk7d-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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