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  • Roulet, Caroline  (11)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (11)
  • Beijing : Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
  • Paris
  • Finance and Investment  (11)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Foreign direct investment, corruption and the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD working papers on international investment 2017, 01
    Series Statement: OECD working papers on international investment
    Keywords: corrumption ; institutions ; law ; foreign direct investment ; Finance and Investment ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper estimates a dynamic foreign direct investment (FDI) gravity model to explore the impact of corruption in general and the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention in particular. The evidence from previous studies in both domains is mixed, probably due to econometric inconsistencies and misuse of data. The more robust findings are that corruption has an insignificant or even positive effect on FDI in the general population. However, adherence to the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention has a clear negative impact on FDI—countries that adhere reduce investments in corrupt destinations.
    DOI: 10.1787/9cb3690c-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: Volltext
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Evaluating capital flow management measures used as macro-prudential tools (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2015, no. 2, p. 7-27 | volume:2015 | year:2015 | number:2 | pages:7-27
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (21 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2015, no. 2, p. 7-27
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-27
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Earlier OECD research has shown that capital flow management measures (CFMs) that are used as macro-prudential measures (MPMs), including currency-based restrictions applied to banks’ operations also with non-residents, have the intended negative impact on capital account openness as measured by covered interest parity indicators. But what is their impact as macro-prudential tools to improve resilience to financial stability risks? This paper refers to the Bruno and Shin (2013) study that suggests that currency-based restrictions act as an effective macro-prudential buffer by reducing the sensitivity in emerging economies of cross-border bank lending to global credit cycles as measured by the volatility index VIX. The specific restrictions considered by the Bruno and Shin study are defined as CFMs and MPMs by both the IMF and the OECD. The paper shows that this result is mitigated when using updated data and testing the same hypotheses for more countries. Therefore further research is needed before concluding on the effectiveness of CFMs used as MPMs. On the other hand, the paper does find that CFMs, including currency-based measures, play a role in managing the domestic credit implications of those central banks engaged in foreign exchange interventions. The paper suggests that countries concerned with financial stability risks that may arise from global credit push factors, while wishing to avoid price distortions caused by CFMs, could use Basel III-consistent liquidity coverage ratios and net stable funding ratios as alternatives to CFMs; they also have the advantage of not having raised objections between governments so far regarding international commitments to exchange rate flexibility and cross-border openness, including the OECD Code of Liberalisation of Capital Movements.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2015-5jm0p44dlq6f
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Infrastructure versus other investments in the global economy and stagnation hypotheses : What do company data tell us? (2015)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 7-45 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:2 | pages:7-45
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 7-45
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-45
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics
    Abstract: This paper uses data drawn from 10 000 global companies in 75 advanced and emerging countries to look at trends in infrastructure and other non-financial industries in light of the talk of stagnation. There appears to be a twin paradox in the global economy: some companies and industries are possibly over-investing, driving down returns on equity (ROEs) versus the cost of capital and creating margin pressure globally, while others carry out too little long-term investment in favour of buybacks and the accumulation of cash. This pattern is associated with a shift in the centre of gravity of world economic activity towards emerging markets. Most of the over-investment appears to be occurring in the extremely strong growth of emerging market sales and investment in non-infrastructure companies, much of which is being financed from rapidly growing debt since the financial crisis. Global value chains, emerging market policies of financial repression, low interest rates, taxation incentives, natural resource endowments and other factors determine where investment is stronger and where it is restrained. Potential problems of debt-financed over-investment in non-infrastructure industries in emerging markets and the incentives for buybacks are identified as major policy issues that need to be addressed if sustainable growth is to be achieved. Evidence on the role of causal factors (sales, GDP, the return on equity, the cost of equity and debt and a measure of financial openness) on corporate capital spending is presented. Finally some policy recommendations are made. JEL classification: F21, G15, G18, G23 Keywords: Global economy, infrastructure, investment, listed companies
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2014-5js4sbd025d6
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Macro-prudential policy, bank systemic risk and capital controls (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:7-28
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-28
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper explores the issue of macro-prudential policies in the light of empirical evidence on the determinants of bank systemic risk, and the effectiveness of capital controls. In many ways this reflects a step back in time towards sector approaches to monetary policy that were so prevalent in the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s. Complexity and interdependence is such that proposals on these issues should be treated with care until much more is understood about the issue. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01. Keywords: Macro-prudential policies, capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkhks4
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Bank business models and the Basel system : Complexity and interconnectedness (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:43-68
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:43-68
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money: excess leverage and default pressure resulting from contagion and counterparty risk. This paper looks at whether the Basel III agreement addresses these issues effectively. Basel III has some very useful elements, notably a (much too light “back-up”) leverage ratio, a capital buffer, a proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses and liquidity and stable funding ratios. However, the paper shows that Basel risk weighting and the use of internal bank models for determining them leads to systematic regulatory arbitrage that undermines its effectiveness. Empirical evidence about the determinants of the riskiness of a bank (measured in this study by the Distance-to-Default) shows that a simple leverage ratio vastly outperforms the Basel Tier 1 ratio. Furthermore, business model features (after controlling for macro factors) have a huge impact. Derivatives origination, prime broking, etc., carry vastly different risks to core deposit banking. Where such differences are present, it makes little sense to have a one-size-fits-all approach to capital rules. Capital rules make more sense when fundamentally different businesses are separated. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, Basel III, derivatives, bank business models, distance-todefault, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkd65b
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  • 6
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    Online Resource
    Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth : Evidence for emerging economies (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:29-42
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:29-42
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The results of an IMF study on controls on capital inflows in emerging economies, using a probit regression approach, are first replicated and tested for stability. The IMF results, downplayed by the authors, have been used by others to suggest controls can be helpful in a crisis situation. However, the stability findings suggest the results are not sufficiently robust to make strong claims in this regard. The same 37 countries and the IMF capital control measures are then used in a panel regression study to examine the impact of capital inflows on annual real GDP growth around the Global Financial Crisis. The results between the pre-crisis and the crisis periods are inconsistent with the IMF study – finding that capital restrictions on inflows (particularly debt liabilities) are most useful in good times when inflows to emerging markets are strong and upward pressure on managed exchange rates and reserves accumulation is greatest. However, lower controls on bonds and on FDI inflows seem to be associated with better growth outcomes during the crisis period studied. These findings are more consistent with studies that see capital controls as part of exchange rate targeting policies and concerns about excess reserves accumulation. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01 Keywords: Capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkgthc
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Bank business models and the separation issue (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:69-91
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:69-91
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money while gains were privatised and losses socialised. It is shown that banks need little capital in calm periods, but in a crisis they need too much – there is no reasonable ex-ante capital rule for large systemically important financial institutions that will make them safe. The bank regulators paradox is that large complex and interconnected banks need very little capital in the good times, but they can never have enough in an extreme crisis. Separation is required to deal with this problem, which derives mainly from counterparty risk. The study suggests banks should be considered for separation into a ring-fenced non-operating holding company (NOHC) structure with ring-fencing when they pass a key allowable threshold for the gross market value (GMV) of derivatives, a case which is reinforced if the bank has high wholesale funding and low levels of liquid trading assets. The pricing of derivatives and repos would become more commensurate with the risks if the NOHC proposal were to be pursued as a unifying strategy for the different national approaches. Most of the objections to this structure are summarised and rebutted. Other national proposals for separation in Switzerland, the Volcker rule, the Vickers rule, and the Liikanen proposal are argued to be inferior to the ring-fenced NOHC proposal, on the grounds that empirical evidence about what matters for a safe business model is not taken properly into account. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, derivatives, bank business models, distance-to-default, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhk9b6j
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  • 8
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    Problems in the international financial system (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:99-121
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:99-121
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the 1980s OECD investment-saving correlations – as an inverse measure of economic openness – indicate a very wide disparity of openness between the OECD and emerging market economies (EMEs) with an absence of open markets in the latter. Given the increasing weight of EMEs in the world economy this pattern of growth with disparity of openness is ultimately unsustainable. This approach to development is not in the interests of EMEs in the post-crisis global environment. Various studies show how the absence of capital mobility inhibits development though private sector capital expenditure at the firm level. This paper generalises those findings in a panel study, showing that in the period since 2008 the increased presence of capital controls is associated with highly significant negative effects on business investment. It suggests that the world economy could be entering a more dangerous phase of potential instability that is not in the interests of either the advanced or the emerging world. There is scope for better policies to encourage more openness; the OECD Codes of Liberalisation could be an effective tool for managing the reform process.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2014-5jxzmkg91s0t
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  • 9
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    Business models of banks, leverage and the distance-to-default (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:2 | pages:7-34
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-34
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This study models the distance-to-default (DTD) of a large sample of banks with the aim of shedding light on policy and regulatory issues. The determinants of the distance-to-default in a panel sample of 94 banks over the period 2004 to 2011, controlling for the market beta of each bank, includes house prices, relative size, simple leverage, derivatives gross market value of exposure, trading assets, wholesale funding and cross-border revenue. The Basel Tier 1 ratio finds no support as a predictor of default risk. The un-weighted leverage ratio, on the other hand, finds strong support. At the macro level house prices are a powerful predictor of the DTD. At the business model level, the results appear to be consistent with an approach to policy that focuses on the apparent importance of the “size-derivativesleverage- wholesale funding nexus” in influencing the DTD of banks. While these results are preliminary, it is encouraging that the out-of-sample predictive power of the model improves systematically as each year of new observations is added. The results are also consistent with some central bank involvement in the supervision process, given the importance of the asset price cycle, identified in this study.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2012-5k4bxlxbd646
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Long-term investment, the cost of capital and the dividend and buyback puzzle (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:39-52
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:39-52
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper argues that interest rates are at extremely low levels to support banks, and the search for yield has pushed the liquidity driven speculative bubble from real estate, derivatives and structured products markets into the corporate debt market. Equities have rallied strongly too. This asset cycle is certainly helping banks reduce hidden losses on illiquid securities and could also help reduce the cost of equity. But for this to occur at current bond yields would require an unrealistic bubble in equities. Markets are assuming that this transition from low to higher rates (more in line with nominal GDP) can be handled smoothly by policy makers, when in fact this may not be so. Extreme volatility would risk new financial fragility problems. The paper presents a panel model using more than 4 000 global companies and shows that the Capex decision in general depend on the cost of equity, the accelerator and uncertainty, whereas buybacks are driven mainly by the gap between the cost of equity and debt. Right now the incentive structure implied by very low interest rates, which may be sustained for a long time, together with tax incentives, works directly against longterm investment. Debt finance is cheap, while the cost of equity capital needed for risky long-term investment is still high. This combination provides a direct incentive for borrowing to carry out buybacks (de-equitisation). Noting that weak investment reduces potential GDP, the paper makes some policy suggestions. JEL Classification: G15, G32, G28, E52. Keywords: Long-term investment, interest rates, de-equitisation, cost of capital, dividend and buybacks, monetary policy.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5k41z8t05l8s
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  • 11
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    Bank lending puzzles : Business models and the responsiveness to policy (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:7-30
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-30
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Banks are still dealing with historic losses buried in their balance sheets. As a result, the US economy is picking up only modestly and Europe is sinking further into recession, despite unprecedented low interest rates and policies to compress the term premium. The aim of this study is to explore the business activities of banks, with a special focus on their lending behaviour, and its responsiveness to unconventional monetary policy. The paper shows that deleveraging has been mainly via mark-to-market assets falling in value, and policy is now serving to reflate these assets without a strong impact on lending. A panel regression study shows that GSIFI banks are least responsive to policy. Non-GSIFI banks respond to the lending rate spread to cash rates, the spread between lending rates and the alternative investment in government bonds, and the distance-to-default (the banks solvency). The paper shows that better lending in the USA is a result of safer banks and a better spread to government bonds – yields on the latter are too attractive relative to lending rates in Europe. Finally, the paper comments on the problem of using cyclical tools to address structural problems in banks, and suggests which alternative policies would better facilitate a financial system more aligned with lending, trust and stability and less towards high-risk activities and leverage via complex products. JEL Classification: E50, E51, E52, E58, G20, G21, G24, G28. Keywords: Bank Lending, Bank business model, deleveraging, structural policy, unconventional monetary policy, distance to default, spreads, bank separation, GSIFI.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5k40m1nz55wj
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