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  • 1
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    The OECD's New Global Model (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 37 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.768
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper provides a summary of the OECD’s new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more weight to the focus of policy interests in global trade and financial linkages. The country model structures typically combine short-term Keynesian-type dynamics with a consistent long-run neo-classical supply-side. While retaining a conventional treatment of international trade and payments linkages, the model has a greater degree of stock-flow consistency, with explicit modelling of domestic and international assets, liabilities and associated income streams. Account is also taken of the influence of financial and housing market developments on asset valuation and domestic expenditures via house and equity prices, interest rates and exchange rates. As a result, the model gives more prominence to wealth and wealth effects in determining longer-term outcomes and the role of asset prices in the transmission of international shocks both to goods and financial markets.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmftp85kr8p-en
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  • 2
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    Inflation Responses to Recent Shocks : Do G7 Countries Behave Differently? (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 42 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.689
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper uses a variety of empirical methods to examine the apparent differences in monetary policy stances as between the United States and other G7 economies, notably those in the euro area, during the period of sharp increases in oil and other commodity prices in the first half of 2008. In particular it asks the question whether observed differences in policy stances could be attributed to differences in economic structures and the vulnerability of different regions to inflationary shocks coming from import prices as opposed to differences in monetary policy objectives. The main conclusion is that although there are a number of differences in the estimated impact and dynamics of commodities, import prices and exchange rates on domestic inflation, which may have contributed to differences in policy stances during the boom in commodity prices, they cannot explain them all.
    DOI: 10.1787/225018287428
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  • 3
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    New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments : A Capital Services Approach (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 53 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.482
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The OECD makes frequent use of the supply-side framework and associated measures of factor productivity, productive potential and associated output gaps in the assessment of the short-term conjunctural situation, comparative economic performance and longer-term growth determinants. This paper describes a number of recent changes and improvements in the methods used in estimating potential output for OECD countries and the systems in which they are used, notably for the production of mediumterm economic scenarios. By and large, these reflect important changes and improvements in available statistical data sets, notably for measuring productive capital, as well as the development of more efficient model-based methods for making medium-term projections on a consistent international basis.
    DOI: 10.1787/628752675863
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  • 4
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    Estimating the structural rate of unemployment for the OECD countries (2003)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2001, no. 2, p. 171-216
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 59 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. L'estimation du taux de chômage structurel des pays de l'OCDE
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2001, no. 2, p. 171-216
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The paper first reviews the conceptual framework underlying different measures of structural unemployment as well as alternative empirical methods that have been used to provide estimates of them. Drawing on this review, it goes on to develop a method for estimating time-varying NAIRUs across a range of OECD countries using a Kalman filter. It then discusses the resulting econometric estimates, and the scope for their further refinement given the associated range of uncertainties. Recent trends in the NAIRU estimates are reviewed: they fell in many countries in the second half of the 1990s, although actual unemployment has remained well above the NAIRU for a majority of countries throughout much of the 1990s, particularly in Europe. Finally, the relevance of such measures to analysing inflation developments and monetary policy is discussed.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2001-art14-en
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  • 5
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    L'estimation du taux de chômage structurel des pays de l'OCDE (2003)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  Revue économique de l'OCDE Vol. 2001, no. 2, p. 185-232
    Details
    ISSN: 1684-3444
    Language: French
    Pages: 61 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Estimating the structural rate of unemployment for the OECD countries
    Titel der Quelle: Revue économique de l'OCDE
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OCDE, 1998
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2001, no. 2, p. 185-232
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: La présente étude commence par une revue du cadre conceptuel des différentes mesures du chômage structurel et des autres méthodes empiriques qui ont été utilisées pour estimer ces mesures. A partir de là, elle expose une méthode pour estimer, au moyen du filtre de Kalman, les NAIRU variables dans le temps dans un ensemble de pays de l’OCDE. Elle analyse ensuite les estimations économétriques qui en résultent et la possibilité de les affiner davantage, compte tenu des nombreuses incertitudes liées à l’estimation. Elle expose les évolutions récentes des estimations du NAIRU : elles ont régressé dans de nombreux pays au cours de la deuxième moitié des années 80, bien que le chômage effectif soit demeuré largement supérieur au NAIRU dans une majorité de pays pendant la plus grande partie de la décennie, particulièrement en Europe. En dernière partie, elle explique l’intérêt des mesures du chômage structurel pour l’analyse des évolutions de l’inflation et de la politique monétaire.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2001-art14-fr
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  • 6
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    Standard Shocks in the OECD Interlink Model (2001)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.306
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: One of the OECD Economic Department’s key vehicles for analysing effects and international spillovers of macroeconomic policy as well as assessing risks to the global outlook is the macroeconometric model, INTERLINK. In the context of the Department’s regular projection exercises the model performs a variety of functions. These include 1) contributing to the construction and co-ordination of individual country projections; 2) the production of globally consistent trade projections; and 3) simulations to explore the short- to medium-term consequences of alternative economic conditions and policy assumptions. This paper briefly describes the main features of the current version of INTERLINK and presents the results of a number of standard macroeconomic shocks. These simulation results reflect the combination of unadjusted model properties and the specific stylised policy assumptions made. In the course of more routine policy analysis with the model at the OECD, these are augmented by ...
    DOI: 10.1787/000706200171
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  • 7
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    Predicting The Evolution and Effects of The Asia Crisis from The OECD Perspective (2000)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 24 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.236
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Over the past two years, the key trading economies in SE Asia experienced major economic crises, involving financial turbulence, large capital outflows and currency depreciations. These, in turn, resulted in severe financial constraints and business failures and required major domestic adjustments and massive swings in their currentaccount balance of payments positions. The associated economic recessions had major effects on the economies in question and, because of constraints on their capacity to invest and import, a significant impact on the rest of the world, so that world trade and output growth slowed significantly and world commodity markets weakened substantially over the period. This paper looks at the wider macroeconomic consequences of the Asia crisis and their predictability from the perspective of the OECD countries. In doing so it examines some of the major aspects of the Asia crisis, its effects on the world situation and their predictability, assisted by the OECD’s ...
    DOI: 10.1787/422426214244
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  • 8
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    The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment : Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries (2000)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 76 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.250
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The structural rate of unemployment and associated non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU) are of major importance to the analysis of macro and structural economic developments, although in practice these concepts are not well defined and there is considerable uncertainty and controversy concerning their measurement and policy use. The present paper reviews a range of conceptual and analytical issues and related empirical studies to examine the usefulness and limitations of such concepts. A reduced-form Phillips curve approach is found the most suitable conceptual framework for representing the NAIRU as currently used by the OECD in its policy analysis and surveillance work. Three distinct classes of NAIRU concept are identified, distinguished by the time-frame in which they are defined, which map directly into the broad requirements for macro and structural policy analysis. In line with a number of recent empirical studies, this general approach is applied ...
    DOI: 10.1787/785730283515
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  • 9
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    Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour : Some Recent Evidence (1998)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.208
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the likely influence of recent stock market fluctuations on major OECD economies, focusing on wealth effects and consumption. After reviewing the relevant theoretical framework and available empirical evidence, consumption functions are estimated for the US including the influence of financial wealth. The resulting estimates of the marginal propensity to consume out of financial wealth are extrapolated to other G7 countries, allowing for differences in stock market capitalisation, and compared with ones obtained more directly from consumption functions that include stock market prices as an explanatory variable. Simulations are then carried out to assess the potential world impact of a major fall in stock market prices in the G7 countries using a version of the OECD INTERLINK model which embodies the latter equations. The overall effects are found to be significant, particularly when relevant international linkage mechanisms are taken into account ...
    DOI: 10.1787/853414662323
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  • 10
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    The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context (1998)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 131 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.193
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This study was prepared in the Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation -wide study of the economic consequences of population ageing. It presents a number of long-term scenarios illustrating the likely domestic and international macroeconomic effects of ageing across the OECD and policies which might ameliorate or reverse underlying tensions. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on the Secretariat’s new international dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomic model (MINILINK). A “business-as-usual” case is examined in which, without improvements in labour market performance or specific policy adjustments to allow for the pressures of ageing, economic growth is projected to slow significantly over the next 50 years in nearly all OECD countries; world real interest rates remain stable at current levels or even rise, because of the effects of ageing on private savings and the possible build-up of public ...
    DOI: 10.1787/502646045314
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  • 11
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    Globalisation and Linkages : Macro-Structural Challenges and Opportunities (1997)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 103 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.181
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper was prepared in the OECD Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation-wide study entitled, “Towards a New Global Age”. It examines macro-structural economic developments in and between OECD and non-OECD economies, the economic linkages and a number of structural factors and policies which have influenced growth performance. It goes on to consider a number of alternative forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios to 2020 for the world economy based on different hypotheses about economic policies and other factors influencing factor productivity developments. A final section provides a model-based evaluation of the potential influence of some of the key factors underlying these scenarios, in particular the influence of demographic changes such as population ageing and alternative fiscal policies ...
    DOI: 10.1787/807377186466
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  • 12
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    Modelling the Supply Side of the Seven Major OECD Economies (1996)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 45 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.167
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: If a macroeconometric model is to be useful for policy analyses which go beyond short-term forecasting requirements, particular attention must be paid to the form and consistency of its various components with respect to longer-term equilibria. In particular, long-run properties and ultimate stability of such models with respect to output, employment and inflation depend crucially on the consistency and form of the supply-side specification. This paper presents recent work by the OECD contributing to its INTERLINK world model. It focuses on the specification and estimation of the supply-side aspects of the sub-models for the seven major OECD Member countries. It presents a general analytical framework for the specification of a consistent model of business sector behaviour within a dynamic form which meets both short-term forecasting and longer-term theoretical requirements. Comparative estimation results are reported for individual economies along with simulation results for a ...
    DOI: 10.1787/067186103828
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  • 13
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    Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances (1995)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 54 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.152
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper reviews the methods used for estimating potential output in OECD countries and the use of the resulting output gaps for the calculation of structural budget balances. The "split time trend" method for estimating trend output that was previously used for calculating structural budget balances is compared with two alternative methods, smoothing real GDP using a Hodrick Prescott filter and estimating potential output using a production function approach. It is concluded that the production function approach for estimating potential output provides the best method for estimating output gaps and for calculating structural budget balances, with the results obtained by smoothing GDP providing a cross check. New tax and expenditure elasticities, along with the potential output gaps, are used to derive structural budget balances ...
    DOI: 10.1787/533876774515
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  • 14
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    Technical Progress, Factor Productivity and Macroeconomic Performance in the Medium Term (1995)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.157
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the possible short- and medium-term macroeconomic consequences of changes in trend factor productivity growth for the major OECD economies. The analysis includes a range of different scenarios based on the recently re-estimated OECD INTERLINK model, in particular its supply-side properties, which illustrate a range of uncertainties and the sensitivity of the adjustment mechanisms to macroeconomic and structural factors. Overall the results suggest that a rise in trend factor productivity will lead to higher levels of production and real income, but employment adjustment will depend on the extent to which the long-run equilibrium of an economy is affected. Though unemployment could rise temporarily, there are important mechanisms present which, if functioning correctly, should prevent any permanent increase in unemployment. The degree of market flexibility is, however, seen as being crucial to the adjustment process, with higher rigidities tending to lengthen the ...
    DOI: 10.1787/648682381876
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  • 15
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    Macroeconomic Performance and Fiscal Policy Adjustments in the Medium Term : Alternative Medium-Term Scenarios (1994)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 44 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.148
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper describes a number of alternative medium-term scenarios for the OECD economies and related policy stimulations using the OECD world model INTERLINK. The starting point of the analysis is a reference scenario to 2000 featuring a general recovery of the OECD economies to steady state non-inflationary growth. The paper goes on to examine the implications of slower growth for the paths of fiscal balance and public debt, and the changes in policy mix which might be necessary to restore announced fiscal policy objectives whilst limiting damage to the wider range of policy objectives. A further section goes on to examine the simulated effects of changes of fiscal and monetary policy stance on output, employment, inflation and public debt over the medium term ...
    DOI: 10.1787/524577826151
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  • 16
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    The Measurement of Output and Factors of Production for the Business Sector in OECD Countries (The OECD Business Sector Database) (1991)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 70 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.99
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper describes a Business Sector Data Base (BSDB) for OECD countries constructed in the context of recent work of the OECD Economics and Statistics Department. It discusses many of the problems of consistency between the usual sources of economic statistics for each of the concepts used and describes the choices made to construct a consistent data base. In two important areas where major problems arise, namely the treatment of capital stock and energy, it has been necessary to construct a number of new estimates. The resulting data base is available on PC diskette to the general public on a subscription basis ...
    DOI: 10.1787/202373302227
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  • 17
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    Simulating the OECD INTERLINK Model under Alternative Monetary Policy Rules (1990)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 72 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.85
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper reviews the influence of a variety of different monetary rules for the G3 economies on the comparative simulation properties of a recent version of the OECD INTERLINK model. The simulated shocks are typically of a "global" nature, with the main objective being to assess the relative effectiveness of alternative monetary policy settings in achieving a stable set of outcomes for main macroeconomic aggregates at the global level. Since the relative performance of different policies seems likely to depend on both the nature of the shocks and specific structural features of the model used, it also examines the extent to which these results are likely to be empirically fragile ...
    DOI: 10.1787/573688010825
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  • 18
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    Recent Developments in OECD's International Macroeconomic Model (1987)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 41 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.46
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper summarizes recent empirical studies contributing towards the OECD Secretariat INTERLINK world macroeconomic model. For a number of topics, it reviews work which is described in more detail in recent Economics and Statistics Department Working Papers. It also covers a number of areas where recent changes have been relatively less substantial in terms of changes in model structure, but nonetheless influential in the evolution of model properties. A final section reviews current Secretariat macroeconometric modelling work which is yet to be implemented in the model and also discusses possible future developments. A separate companion paper, ESD Working Paper No. 47, analyses the single- and multi-country simulation properties of a recent version of the model, one which includes most of the research reported here ...
    DOI: 10.1787/302480486632
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  • 19
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    A Review of the Simulation Properties of OECD's INTERLINK Model (1987)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 77 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.47
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper reviews the simulation properties of a recent version of the OECD Secretariat's international macroeconomic model, INTERLINK, a version which embodies much of the empirical work reported in recent Working Papers and summarised in a separate companion paper ESD Working Paper No. 46. The material presented is intended to provide a general overview of model properties and some of the key mechanisms involved ...
    DOI: 10.1787/686024507858
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  • 20
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    Tracking the U.S. External Deficit, 1980-1985 : Experience with the OECD INTERLINK Model (1987)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 45 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.38
    Keywords: Economics ; United States
    Abstract: This paper provides an analysis of the recent evolution of the U.S. current account external deficit in the context of the OECD Secretariat world model, INTERLINK. It seeks to assess to what extent developments in the U.S. current balance since 1980 might be viewed as being surprising, at least by the standards of the relationships embodied in the current U.S. trade block of that model ...
    DOI: 10.1787/602500188875
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