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  • 1995-1999  (6)
  • 1980-1984
  • Richardson, Pete  (6)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (6)
  • Cham : Springer International Publishing AG
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context (1998)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 131 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.193
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This study was prepared in the Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation -wide study of the economic consequences of population ageing. It presents a number of long-term scenarios illustrating the likely domestic and international macroeconomic effects of ageing across the OECD and policies which might ameliorate or reverse underlying tensions. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on the Secretariat’s new international dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomic model (MINILINK). A “business-as-usual” case is examined in which, without improvements in labour market performance or specific policy adjustments to allow for the pressures of ageing, economic growth is projected to slow significantly over the next 50 years in nearly all OECD countries; world real interest rates remain stable at current levels or even rise, because of the effects of ageing on private savings and the possible build-up of public ...
    DOI: 10.1787/502646045314
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour : Some Recent Evidence (1998)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.208
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the likely influence of recent stock market fluctuations on major OECD economies, focusing on wealth effects and consumption. After reviewing the relevant theoretical framework and available empirical evidence, consumption functions are estimated for the US including the influence of financial wealth. The resulting estimates of the marginal propensity to consume out of financial wealth are extrapolated to other G7 countries, allowing for differences in stock market capitalisation, and compared with ones obtained more directly from consumption functions that include stock market prices as an explanatory variable. Simulations are then carried out to assess the potential world impact of a major fall in stock market prices in the G7 countries using a version of the OECD INTERLINK model which embodies the latter equations. The overall effects are found to be significant, particularly when relevant international linkage mechanisms are taken into account ...
    DOI: 10.1787/853414662323
    URL: Volltext
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Globalisation and Linkages : Macro-Structural Challenges and Opportunities (1997)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 103 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.181
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper was prepared in the OECD Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation-wide study entitled, “Towards a New Global Age”. It examines macro-structural economic developments in and between OECD and non-OECD economies, the economic linkages and a number of structural factors and policies which have influenced growth performance. It goes on to consider a number of alternative forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios to 2020 for the world economy based on different hypotheses about economic policies and other factors influencing factor productivity developments. A final section provides a model-based evaluation of the potential influence of some of the key factors underlying these scenarios, in particular the influence of demographic changes such as population ageing and alternative fiscal policies ...
    DOI: 10.1787/807377186466
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Modelling the Supply Side of the Seven Major OECD Economies (1996)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 45 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.167
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: If a macroeconometric model is to be useful for policy analyses which go beyond short-term forecasting requirements, particular attention must be paid to the form and consistency of its various components with respect to longer-term equilibria. In particular, long-run properties and ultimate stability of such models with respect to output, employment and inflation depend crucially on the consistency and form of the supply-side specification. This paper presents recent work by the OECD contributing to its INTERLINK world model. It focuses on the specification and estimation of the supply-side aspects of the sub-models for the seven major OECD Member countries. It presents a general analytical framework for the specification of a consistent model of business sector behaviour within a dynamic form which meets both short-term forecasting and longer-term theoretical requirements. Comparative estimation results are reported for individual economies along with simulation results for a ...
    DOI: 10.1787/067186103828
    URL: Volltext
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Technical Progress, Factor Productivity and Macroeconomic Performance in the Medium Term (1995)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.157
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the possible short- and medium-term macroeconomic consequences of changes in trend factor productivity growth for the major OECD economies. The analysis includes a range of different scenarios based on the recently re-estimated OECD INTERLINK model, in particular its supply-side properties, which illustrate a range of uncertainties and the sensitivity of the adjustment mechanisms to macroeconomic and structural factors. Overall the results suggest that a rise in trend factor productivity will lead to higher levels of production and real income, but employment adjustment will depend on the extent to which the long-run equilibrium of an economy is affected. Though unemployment could rise temporarily, there are important mechanisms present which, if functioning correctly, should prevent any permanent increase in unemployment. The degree of market flexibility is, however, seen as being crucial to the adjustment process, with higher rigidities tending to lengthen the ...
    DOI: 10.1787/648682381876
    URL: Volltext
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances (1995)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 54 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.152
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper reviews the methods used for estimating potential output in OECD countries and the use of the resulting output gaps for the calculation of structural budget balances. The "split time trend" method for estimating trend output that was previously used for calculating structural budget balances is compared with two alternative methods, smoothing real GDP using a Hodrick Prescott filter and estimating potential output using a production function approach. It is concluded that the production function approach for estimating potential output provides the best method for estimating output gaps and for calculating structural budget balances, with the results obtained by smoothing GDP providing a cross check. New tax and expenditure elasticities, along with the potential output gaps, are used to derive structural budget balances ...
    DOI: 10.1787/533876774515
    URL: Volltext
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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