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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 40 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs no.16
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Au lendemain de la crise asiatique : Comment gérer les flux de capitaux ?
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: • The unprecedented withdrawal of foreign private capital from Asia, more than 10 per cent of GDP in the crisis countries, confronts them with a transfer problem. Creditor governments should induce their home banks into financial rescue operations to reduce moral hazard in private-sector lending, and to encourage Asia’s recovery. • The resolution of Asia’s domestic debt overhang must be the overriding policy concern for Asia’s governments; paying the inevitable fiscal cost in Asia’s restructuring process requires tax-base broadening, supported by easy monetary policy. • Progress towards a less crisis-prone international financial system will hinge on how to correct the excessive risk taking by banks. Regulatory distortions through the Basle Accord which bias bank lending towards the short term should be corrected. • Developing countries should strengthen bank and non-bank balance sheets and raise the quality of inflows; Chile-type regulatory measures, however, will only be effective in an appropriate policy context.
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 21 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.148
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The 1990s have witnessed pronounced boom-bust cycles in emerging-markets lending, culminating in the Asian financial and currency crisis of 1997-98. By examining the links between sovereign credit ratings and dollar bond yield spreads over 1989-97, this paper aims at broad empirical content for judging whether the three leading rating agencies — Moody’s, Standard ' Poor’s and Fitch IBCA — can intensify or attenuate boom-bust cycles in emerging-market lending. First, an event study exploring the market response for 30 trading days before and after rating announcements finds a significant impact of imminent upgrades and implemented downgrades for a combination of ratings by the three leading agencies, despite strong anticipation of rating events. Second, a Granger causality test, by correcting for joint determinants of ratings and yield spreads, finds that changes in sovereign ratings are mutually interdependent with changes in bond yields. These findings are based on many more ...
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 47 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE no.16
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. After the Great Asian Slump: Towards a Coherent Approach to Global Capital Flows
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: • Le repli massif des capitaux étrangers investis en Asie — plus de 10 pour cent du PIB des pays en crise — les place devant un problème de transfert. Pour favoriser la relance en Asie, les pays créanciers devraient impliquer leurs banques domestiques dans les opérations de sauvetage financier, ce qui réduirait les aléas de moralité dans les activités de prêt du secteur privé. • Pour les pays d’Asie, la priorité est de résoudre le problème du surendettement domestique. Financer le coût budgétaire inhérent à la restructuration exige que les gouvernements des pays asiatiques élargissent la base d’imposition tout en adoptant une politique d’abondance monétaire. • Les pays en développement doivent s’assurer du bon équilibre financier des établissements bancaires et non bancaires et être plus exigeants sur la qualité des capitaux étrangers investis. Toutefois, une réglementation « à la chilienne » ne peut être efficace que dans un contexte politique approprié. • Pour évoluer vers un système financier international moins vulnérable aux crises, il importe d’agir sur les risques excessifs pris par les banques. Les Accords de Bâle induisent des distorsions favorisant les prêts bancaires à court terme qui devraient être corrigées.
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 53 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.137
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: How and to what extent can a high degree of global financial integration help the fast-ageing OECD benefit from the delayed ageing process in the non-OECD area? The question is being raised with increasing urgency as it is slowly understood that even fully funded pension schemes will not escape demographic pressures in the absence of considerable capital flows between the ageing OECD and the younger part of the world. A simulation with a two-region neo-classical economic-demographic model reaches two basic conclusions of importance to policy makers. First, capital flows from fast-ageing, mostly OECD countries to slowly ageing, mostly developing countries can only slightly attenuate, but not reverse, the consequences of an ageing population on falling returns to capital. Second, significant distributional effects are likely to arise from the interaction of population ageing and financial integration. Global financial integration benefits elderly lifetime savers, but hurts elderly ...
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 29 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.132
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Large current account deficits are often assumed to play an important role in the propagation of financial crises in emerging markets in receipt of heavy private capital inflows. This paper reaches some major conclusions. First, the Lawson Doctrine — according to which current account deficits that result from a shift in private-sector behaviour should not be a public policy concern — has been discredited by recent currency crises in Latin America and Asia. Second, it is possible to define the size of current account deficits that should be sustainable in the long run. Third, the intertemporal approach to the current account does not provide a reliable benchmark to define when deficits become “excessive”. Fourth, large external deficits should be resisted if unsustainable currency appreciation, excessive risk-taking in the banking system and a sharp drop in private savings are seen to coincide ...
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.136
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The recent currency crises in Latin America and Asia have hit countries with strong macroeconomic fundamentals but weak domestic financial systems. Private capital flows, attracted by disorderly financial liberalisation and exchange rate pegs, reversed abruptly when financial-sector weaknesses became apparent. Often, domestic financial systems have proved too weak a conduit for heavy capital inflows, resulting in declining credit quality and financial vulnerability to speculative currency attacks. Developing countries are therefore advised to pay close attention to indicators of financial vulnerability, in particular to short-term debt levels as a fraction of official foreign exchange reserves, as well as to currency and maturity mismatches in private-sector balance sheets. This paper points to the avenues that can be pursued to avoid a rise in the vulnerability indicators above critical levels ... Some of these avenues are uncontroversial, but deceptively hard to implement. Good ...
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.124
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: In principle, the sovereign credit rating industry could help mitigate the congestion externalities common to world capital markets that arise from the failure of market participants to internalise the social cost of external borrowings. This would require that modifications in ratings on government bonds convey new information to market participants, with changes in credit ratings leading to changes in country risk premia. Using panel data analysis and event studies this paper presents econometric evidence that changes in credit rating have a significant impact on international financial markets. In line with earlier studies, our event study finds a highly significant announcement effect when emerging-market sovereign bonds are put on review with negative outlook. Our findings imply that the sovereign rating industry has the potential to help dampen excessive private capital inflows into the emerging markets with negative rating announcements ...
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 47 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.130
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: This paper provides statistically significant international evidence on the interaction between funded pensions and aggregate savings, after controlling for country-specific effects and for other saving determinants that have typically been identified in earlier cross-country studies. Using panel data for eleven countries (both OECD and non-OECD), this study goes beyond earlier work which has been based on individual country studies only (which have suffered from a small number of degrees of freedom). Building several proxies of pension wealth based on internationally comparable pension fund and life insurance data, the paper estimates the relationship between aggregate saving rates and pension wealth using ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares over the 1982-93 period. The empirical analysis supports the predictions of a simple two-period life-cycle saving model that incorporates tax treatment of pension returns, population heterogeneity, capital market imperfection and ...
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 23 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.120
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The paper evaluates the economics of foreign investment regulation for pension funds, with a focus on developing countries, where fully-funded pension systems are being started de novo. The analysis produces three observations. First, the benefits of global portfolio diversification apply particularly to developing-country pension assets because the volatility of asset returns is high while the risk tolerance of pensioners is low. Second, restrictions of foreign investment by domestic pension funds can hardly be justified on grounds of financial-development arguments: cross-country evidence which little support for the claim that the accumulation of pension assets would provide strong externalities for financial development. Moreover, the home bias generally observed in pension fund investment should translate into sufficient potential demand for domestic financial assets so as to deepen markets and develop the institutional infrastructure. Third, a case for initial localisation ...
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs no.9
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Réorienter les fonds de retraite vers les marchés émergents
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: • The rapid ageing of populations in the rich economies can be expected to stimulate strong growth in private funded pensions, providing a massive potential of foreign finance for developing countries. • Pension managers can reap big diversification benefits by investing on the emerging stock markets of the younger economies, benefits which are largely unexploited so far. • The authorities in OECD countries should consider removing regulatory constraints imposed on pension assets that deprive retirees from the pension-improving benefits of global diversification. • Policy makers in developing countries should design policies that reassure institutional investors on default risk and stock market illiquidity, if they want to tap a higher share of OECD pension assets.
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE no.9
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Pension Fund Investment from Ageing to Emerging Markets
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: • Le vieillissement rapide des populations dans les pays riches va sans doute entraîner une forte croissance des régimes de retraite privés par capitalisation, lesquels pourraient offrir d’énormes moyens de financement aux pays en développement. • Les gestionnaires des fonds de retraite peuvent recueillir d’importants avantages de diversification en investissant sur les marchés boursiers émergents des jeunes économies ; mais ces avantages restent pratiquement inexploités. • Les pays de l’OCDE devraient envisager de supprimer les contraintes réglementaires qui pèsent sur les actifs des fonds de retraite et qui privent les retraités des bénéfices résultant d’une diversification à l’échelle mondiale. • S’ils veulent mobiliser une plus grande partie des actifs des fonds de retraite des pays de l’OCDE, les pays en développement doivent adopter des politiques propres à rassurer les investisseurs institutionnels au sujet des risques de défaillance et d’illiquidité des marchés boursiers.
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