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  • Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques
  • Svobodová, Vlasta
  • Égert, Balázs
  • Paris : OECD  (3)
  • Economics  (3)
  • Czech Republic
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (15 S.)
    Series Statement: Fiscal consolidation across government levels 3
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1072
    Series Statement: Fiscal consolidation across government levels
    Keywords: Finanzausgleich ; Finanzbeziehungen ; Antizyklische Finanzpolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Taxation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical analysis that measures the cyclical properties of intergovernmental transfers (or grants). Modelling a fiscal policy reaction function this paper tests whether the transfers systems in OECD countries are pro- or counter-cyclical, i.e. whether they offset cyclical fluctuations of sub-central economies or, on the contrary, exacerbate them. Regression results suggest that transfer systems tend to be pro-cyclical in general and in more than half of OECD countries they tend to destabilise sub-central budgets. Transfer pro-cyclicality may be the result of several factors: Transfer spending is often determined as a share of central government tax revenue, which itself tends to fluctuate with the cycle. Moreover, many grants are matching sub-central spending and hence tend to exacerbate fluctuations of that sub-central spending. Pro-cyclical grants could partly explain the often observed pro-cyclicality of subcentral government fiscal policy.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 953
    Keywords: Klimawandel ; Klimapolitik ; Polen ; Environment ; Economics ; Poland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Poland is on track to meet its international greenhouse-gas emissions commitments. However, it will need to cut emissions significantly in the future, if the European Commission’s proposal on the Low Carbon Roadmap is adopted. Policies should ensure that the country’s substantial reduction potential, mainly linked to the energy sector’s high emissions intensity, and implying overall abatement costs above the EU-average, is realised in a least-cost fashion by imposing an economy-wide single carbon price. This stands in contrast with current explicit and implicit carbon prices, which vary widely across different sectors of the economy. Crucial to least-cost abatement is also a high responsiveness to the EU-ETS carbon price signal. While Poland has made good progress in complying with EU regulations related to the energy sector, the large share of public ownership and the lack of effective separation between electricity producers and distributors may blur the price signal for investment decisions in generation capacity. The isolation of the Polish electricity market implies a need for more investment in low-emission technologies in Poland to achieve a given emissions-reduction target, whereas a deeper integration with neighbouring electricity markets would spread the burden more efficiently across countries. The cost-efficiency advantage of uniform support to renewables via green certificates should be retained to minimise abatement costs. Government policies aimed at a higher share of nuclear power and natural gas from shale formations need to take fully into account tail risks and the short- and long-term environmental costs of the use of the former and fully consider environmental risks related to extraction of the latter. Energy efficiency policies can help to address market failure but should not be allowed to distort relative carbon prices. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Review of Poland (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Poland).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 993
    Keywords: 1790-2009 ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The economics profession seems to increasingly endorse the existence of a strongly negative nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth. Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) were the first to point out that a public debt-to-GDP ratio higher than 90% of GDP is associated with considerably lower economic performance in advanced and emerging economies alike. A string of recent empirical papers broadly validates this threshold value. This paper seeks to contribute to this literature by putting a variant of the Reinhart-Rogoff dataset to a formal econometric testing. Using nonlinear threshold models, there is some evidence in favour of a negative nonlinear relationship between debt and growth. But these results are very sensitive to the time dimension and country coverage considered, data frequency (annual data vs. multi-year averages) and assumptions on the minimum number of observations required in each nonlinear regime. We show that when non-linearity is detected, the negative nonlinear effect kicks in at much lower levels of public debt (between 20% and 60% of GDP). These results, based on bivariate regressions on secular time series, are largely confirmed on a shorter dataset (1960-2010) when using a multivariate growth framework that accounts for traditional drivers of long-term economic growth and model uncertainty. Nonlinear effects might be more complex and difficult to model than previously thought. Instability might be a result of nonlinear effects changing over time, across countries and economic conditions. Further research is certainly needed to fully understand the link between public debt and growth.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
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