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  • 2005-2009  (10)
  • Mourougane, Annabelle  (10)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (10)
  • Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
  • Paris
  • Economics  (10)
Datasource
Material
Language
Years
Year
Publisher
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (10)
  • Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
  • Paris
Keywords
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 74 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.676
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper reviews and assesses in terms of availability, reliability and transparency existing policy and outcome indicators that have been found to be linked both directly and indirectly to economic growth and living standards. Indicators aiming at capturing the political and social situation of countries, as well as governance-related issues, are examined (e.g. political system, political stability, corruption, crime and violence). Topics also include product and labour markets, infrastructure, trade, financial indicators and composite indices of reform.
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 51 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.668
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This overview paper examines the financial crisis in light of past country experience and economic theory and sets out some preliminary policy recommendations. A number of facets of the crisis are detailed, including its origins and spreading factors as well as crisis resolution policies and their associated gross and net fiscal costs. The implications of the crisis on key macro-economic variables are subsequently presented. Finally, policy recommendations for both addressing the economic downturn and enhancing the resilience of the economies over the medium to long-term are discussed.
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 20 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.699
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial crises on potential output. For this purpose a univariate autoregressive growth equation is estimated on an unbalanced panel of OECD countries over the period 1960 to 2007. Our results suggest that the occurrence of a financial crisis negatively and permanently affects potential output. In particular, financial crises are estimated to lower potential output by around 1.5 to 2.4% on average. The magnitude of the effect increases with the severity of the crisis. The occurrence of a deep crisis is found to decrease potential output by nearly 4%, almost twice the amount observed for the average of crises. These results are robust to the use of an alternative measure of potential output, changes in the methodology and in the sample periods.
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.730
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of economic crises on structural unemployment using an Autoregressive Distributed Lags model and accounting for the role of institutional settings. Analysing an unbalanced panel of 30 OECD economies from 1970 to 2008, we found that downturns have, on average, a significant positive impact on the level of structural unemployment rate. The maximum impact varies with the severity of the downturn. Institutions (such as Employment Protection Legislation, average replacement ratio and product market regulation) influence both the extent of the initial shock and the adjustment pattern in the aftermath of a downturn.
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.648
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the short-term distributional effects of a number of tax and labour market reforms in the euro area, drawing on simulations using a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium model. A heterogeneous household sector with two groups of consumers is considered. The first group maximises intertemporal utility over an infinite horizon in the presence of habit persistence. The second group is liquidity constrained and has no access to financial markets for intertemporal income transfers. It thus spends its disposable income entirely on current consumption. Although the examined reforms are estimated to boost aggregate consumption and output immediately after implementation, they have sizeable distributional effects. In particular, liquidity-constrained households may incur transitional losses after a cut in the benefit replacement ratio. Lowering employment and/or price adjustment costs could markedly reduce these short-term costs. A suitable compensation scheme could also reduce the uneven distribution of transitional losses, but at the expense of lower aggregate gains in the long run.
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 51 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.647
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the nature and the length of economic adjustments to selected structural reforms, drawing on a variety of approaches: descriptive analysis and simulations using Dynamic General Equilibrium and macro-economic neo-Keynesian models. The descriptive analysis suggests that the correlation between reforms, including a change in the tax wedge, the replacement ratio or anti-competitive product market regulation and the structural unemployment rate peaks only after 5 to 10 years. Lowering employment and price adjustment costs in the euro area to their respective US levels would only have a relatively limited effect on the speed of adjustment to labour market and tax reforms. Monetary policy reaction can speed up the adjustment to a new equilibrium, though to a varying degree in the different OECD countries or regions. In particular, reforms in individual euro area countries are likely to trigger only little or no policy reaction, unless there is an area-wide effort to implement reforms.
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 37 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.557
    Keywords: Economics ; New Zealand
    Abstract: After the radical reforms undertaken in the 1980s, the NZ tax system has long been regarded as one of most efficient within the OECD, and is based on a comprehensive income approach. Looking forward, the country will require a tax regime that helps the economy to continue raising living standards, supports savings and investment and copes with emerging pressures such as increasing geographic mobility of labour and capital. In this context, it will be important to have in place a clear long-term direction for the tax system to guide reforms. There are at least two broad options that are worth considering: adapting the system within a comprehensive income approach or adopting a dual income tax system. Future changes to the tax system need to be consistent with the approach ultimately adopted. In any case, a number of limitations of current tax bases will need to be tackled. This Working Paper relates to the 2007 OECD Economic Survey of New Zealand (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/nz).
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 22 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.515
    Keywords: Economics ; Canada
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to develop a short-term indicator-based model to predict quarterly GDP in Canada by efficiently exploiting all available monthly information. To this aim, monthly forecasting equations are estimated using the GDP series published every month by Statistics Canada as well as other monthly indicators. The procedures are automated and the model can be run whenever major monthly data are released, allowing the appropriate choice of the model according to the information set available. The most important gain from this procedure is for the current-quarter forecast when one or two months of GDP data are available, with all monthly models estimated in the paper outperforming a standard quarterly autoregressive model in terms of size of errors. The use of indicators also appears to improve forecasting performance, especially when an average of indicator-based models is used. Real-time forecasting performance of the average model appear to be good, with an apparent stability of the estimates from one update to the next, despite the extensive use of monthly data. The latter result should nonetheless be interpreted with caution and will need to be re-assessed when more data become available.
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 105 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.440
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse international trade developments. New panel data estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and exchange rate pass-through into trade prices are reported for both OECD and non-OECD economies. The model set out has already been used successfully to monitor the global consistency of the international trade projections in the Economic Outlook.
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.437
    Keywords: Economics ; New Zealand
    Abstract: The paper examines the current state of competition in a number of sectors that are important for the economy. Because of the country’s small size and isolation, the analysis focuses on barriers to entry, investment and external trade, rather than some standard indicators of competition stance. The competition law and institutions are generally well-conceived, although high-profile litigation about mergers and market-power problems hasstretched their capacities and until recently, diverted attention from enforcement against price fixing. Overall, markets appear to function well in New Zealand, but progress towards liberalisation seems recently to have lost momentum. In particular, improvement could be made in three main areas: in the energy sector, lifting current barriers to investment and developing forward markets are necessary to ensure the economy will be able to cope with long-term challenges; in telecommunications markets, concerns have been mounting regarding high prices and slow deployment of broadband; and in the public sector, there is scope for further use of private delivery for public services and reducing state ownership, especially in potentially competitive markets. Some adjustments to the regulatory framework and policies in a number of other sectors would also be beneficial. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of New Zealand (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/nz).
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