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  • Menon, Carlo  (11)
  • Turner, David  (10)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (21)
  • Bratislava : SAV
  • Graue Literatur  (21)
  • 1
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    Portrait of innovative startups across countries (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry working papers 2018, 02
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry working papers
    Keywords: Unternehmensgründung ; Innovation ; Risikokapital ; Unternehmer ; Geschlecht ; OECD-Staaten ; Science and Technology ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The report presents new cross-country descriptive evidence on innovative start-ups and related venture capital investments drawing upon Crunchbase, a new dataset that is unprecedented in terms of scope and comprehensiveness. The analysis employs a mix of different statistical techniques (descriptive graphics, econometric analysis, and machine learning) to highlight a number of findings. First, there are significant cross-country differences in the professional and educational background of start-ups’ founders, notably the share of founders with previous academic experience and in the share of “serial entrepreneurs”. Conversely, the founders’ average age is rather constant across countries, but shows a fair degree of variability across sectors. Second, IP assets, and in particular the presence of an inventor in the team of founders, are strongly associated with start-ups’ success. Finally, female founders are less likely to receive funding, receive lower amounts when they do receive financing, and have a lower probability of successful exit, when other factors are controlled for.
    DOI: 10.1787/f9ff02f4-en
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  • 2
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    Industrial robotics and the global organisation of production (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry working papers 2018, 03
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry working papers
    Keywords: Roboter ; Automatisierte Produktion ; Produktionsorganisation ; Welt ; Science and Technology ; Industry and Services ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Increased robot use, fuelled by price declines and the increased dexterity of these machines, is expected to affect existing/future production technologies and the organisation of production within GVCs. In order to safeguard their competitiveness in an increasingly digitalised global economy, governments across OECD and emerging economies are implementing a range of policy measures/programmes to support the investment in and use of robotics. This paper assesses the extent to which robotics impact the organisation of production through offshoring and backshoring. The results indicate that the use of industrial robots in developed economies appears to be slowing the offshoring rates, although it is not yet prompting firms to bring jobs back home. However, the effect is very recent, especially in labour-intensive sectors, and not yet apparent in developing countries. The findings suggest the rate of global value chain expansion may be slower than in the past.
    DOI: 10.1787/dd98ff58-en
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  • 3
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    The long view : scenarios for the world economy to 2060 (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper no. 22 (July 2018)
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.22
    Keywords: 2016 ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Szenariotechnik ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper presents long-run economic projections for 46 countries, extending the short-run projections of the Spring 2018 OECD Economic Outlook. It first sets out a baseline scenario under the assumption that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms. This scenario is then used as a reference point to illustrate the potential impact of structural reforms in alternative scenarios, including better governance and educational attainment in the large emerging-market economies and competition-friendly product market and labour market reforms in OECD economies. Flexibility-enhancing labour market reforms not only boost living standards but, by raising the employment rate, also help alleviate fiscal pressures associated with population ageing. Another scenario illustrates the potential positive impact of linking the pensionable age to life expectancy on the participation rate of older workers, and in particular that of women. Additional scenarios illustrate the potential economic gains from raising public investment and spending more on research and development. A final ‘negative’ scenario shows how slipping back on trade liberalisation – returning to 1990 average tariff rates – might depress standards of living everywhere.
    DOI: 10.1787/b4f4e03e-en
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  • 4
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    Investment as a transmission mechanism from weak demand to weak supply and the post-crisis productivity slowdown (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1466
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Produktionspotenzial ; Kapitalstock ; Investition ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Akzelerator ; Hysterese ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration of potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. For the most severely affected economies, the financial crisis is estimated to have reduced potential output by more than 2% via this transmission mechanism. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, over a period when the use of conventional macro policy instruments was constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competition-friendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/0c62cc26-en
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  • 5
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    Saving, investment, capital stock and current account projections in long-term scenarios (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1461
    Keywords: Sparquote ; Kapitalstock ; Investition ; Leistungsbilanz ; Leistungsbilanz ; Szenariotechnik ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper describes the framework used in long-term economic scenarios for the projection of the saving rate, investment, capital stock and current account. The saving rate is determined according to an estimated equation which suggests that demographics, captured by the old-age dependency rate and life expectancy, is a major driver, with additional effects from the fiscal balance, labour productivity growth, the net oil trade balance, the availability of credit and the level of social protection. The evolution of the business sector capital stock depends on the economy’s cyclical position, product market regulation, employment protection legislation and the user cost of capital, and may be constrained by current account deficits depending on the degree of capital account openness. Business sector investment is derived from the capital stock projection via the usual stock-flow identity. The public sector capital stock-to-output ratio is assumed to be constant in the baseline scenario, but a public investment shock can be simulated in alternative scenarios. The current account balance is obtained as the difference between national investment and saving, and in turn determines the evolution of the net international investment position. A global interest rate premium helps to bring global saving and investment into balance.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/aa519fc9-en
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  • 6
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    Matching crunchbase with patent data (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry working papers 2017, 07
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry working papers
    Keywords: Datenbank ; Patent ; Crunchbase ; Science and Technology ; Industry and Services ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This note describes a procedure to match companies and individuals listed in Crunchbase, a new database on innovative start-ups and companies, with patent applicants and inventors reported in PATSTAT, the worldwide intellectual property database maintained by the European Patent Office. Given that neither administrative nor other unique identifiers are available in either of the two databases, the matching is based on a “fuzzy” procedure that exploits the available overlapping information across the two databases. A general overview of the resulting database completes the note.
    DOI: 10.1787/15f967fa-en
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  • 7
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    The fiscal projection framework in long-term scenarios (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1440
    Keywords: Szenariotechnik ; Finanzpolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper describes the fiscal framework used in long-term economic scenarios, with some emphasis on revisions made since the 2013 vintage of the long-term model. Long-term projections for public spending on pensions, health and long-term care are now separate from other primary expenditure and sourced from previous OECD work taking account of population ageing and other cost pressures. Other primary expenditure are assumed to remain constant in real terms on a per capita basis, rather than remaining stable as a share of GDP. This difference is important for long-term fiscal projections because government finances are sensitive to the employment rate, whereas expenditure is linked to the total population. A fiscal rule adjusts government revenue to ensure that public debt eventually stabilises as a share of GDP, making government revenue as a share of GDP the preferred indicator of future fiscal pressure.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/8eddfa18-en
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  • 8
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    The impact of road infrastructure investment on incumbent firms in Korea (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD regional development working papers 2017, 01
    Keywords: Straßenbau ; Verkehrsinfrastruktur ; Infrastrukturinvestition ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Unternehmen ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; Südkorea ; Urban, Rural and Regional Development ; Korea, Republic of ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper develops an indicator that combines the area that residents can reach within a certain time of travel with population density to create a proxy for “accessibility”, i.e. access to employment and consumption opportunities. Using a large scale firm level dataset, with nearly one million firm year observations over 14 years, the paper quantifies the link between firm-level outcomes and the change in accessibility in Korea due to the expansion of the network of major roads. The results suggest that the most productive firms benefited in terms of employment, output, and productivity, as accessibility improved. For the majority of incumbent firms, improved accessibility leaves most balance sheet variables broadly unaffected, but is associated with a decrease in fixed assets. The estimates also suggest that there was little job displacement, with the exception of service sectors where employment increased in response to improved local accessibility and declined for long distance accessibility.
    DOI: 10.1787/e72fdcb6-en
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  • 9
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    A revised approach to productivity convergence in long-term scenarios (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1385
    Keywords: Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Längsschnittanalyse ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper describes revisions to the trend labour efficiency component of the production function underpinning long-term economic scenarios. The main goal of the revision is to add more policy and institutional determinants in the equation to enrich the scenarios that can be constructed. In the proposed equation, equilibrium trend labour efficiency depends on a broad measure of the quality of institutions and governance (the World’s Bank rule of law indicator), human capital (based on average years of schooling attainment), product market regulation (PMR), openness to trade adjusted for country size, the stability of the macroeconomic framework (based on inflation and its variance), income inequality (based on GINI coefficients) as well as domestic and global research and development (via accumulated stocks of R&D). Apart from the innovation effects, the sizes of the other effects are jointly estimated in a conditional convergence framework with a sample of about 120 countries, without the use of country fixed effects. Rule of law and openness are also estimated to influence the speed of convergence toward the long-term equilibrium.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/0b8947e3-en
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  • 10
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    Tax planning by multinational firms : firm-level evidence from a crosscountry database (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1355
    Keywords: Multinationales Unternehmen ; Unternehmensbesteuerung ; Steuerplanung ; Steuerrecht ; OECD-Staaten ; G20-Staaten ; Taxation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper exploits firm-level data from the ORBIS database to assess international tax planning by multinational enterprises (MNEs). Profit shifting to lower-tax rate countries is measured by comparing the profitability of MNE entities having different links to countries with different tax rates and thus different profit shifting opportunities. The paper also considers other aspects of tax planning that have been less documented in the empirical literature, such as the exploitation of mismatches between tax systems and preferential tax regimes, by comparing how profits reported by MNE entities are taxed relative to non-multinational entities with similar characteristics. The analysis builds on available unconsolidated financial account data, which, despite its limitations, is considered as the best existing cross-country firm-level data. Results are based on a very large sample of firms (1.2 million observations of MNE accounts) in 46 OECD and G20 countries and a sophisticated procedure to identify MNE groups. They provide robust evidence that MNEs shift profits to lower-tax rate countries and that large MNEs also exploit mismatches between tax systems and preferential tax treatment to reduce their tax burden. Overall, the estimated net tax revenue loss ranges from 4% to 10% of global corporate tax revenues. The empirical analysis also shows that strong “anti-avoidance” rules against tax planning are associated with reduced profit shifting, but also higher compliance costs for firms.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/9ea89b4d-en
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  • 11
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    Innovation, patent location and tax planning by multinationals (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1360
    Keywords: Multinationales Unternehmen ; Unternehmensbesteuerung ; Innovationsmanagement ; IP-Management ; Steuerplanung ; Steuerrecht ; OECD-Staaten ; G20-Staaten ; BEPS, multinational enterprises, tax planning, patents, corporate taxation, research and development ; Taxation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper assesses the effect of international differences in taxes on the choice of patent location by multinational enterprises (MNEs). The analysis is based on a large sample of patents and firms from the OECD-PATSTAT and OECD-ORBIS databases over 2004-10. The approach is to compare the number of patent applications of MNE entities with different links to other countries and thus different sets of location choices, while controlling for other factors affecting patenting behaviour. The results suggest that lower corporate taxes, either in the form of a lower statutory rate or a preferential intellectual property regime, are associated with more patent applications. Both the location of research activities, which is proxied by the location of patent inventors, and the legal ownership of patents are found to be sensitive to corporate taxes. For instance, a 5 percentage point cut in the preferential tax rate on patent income is associated with a 6% increase in patent applications. On average, about two-thirds of the increase comes from patents invented at home and one third from patents invented abroad, but the relative importance of these two effects is likely to vary with the design of the preferential regime and especially the existence of activity requirements. In addition, strong anti-avoidance measures against tax planning are found to reduce patent shifting by MNEs.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/b08459e5-en
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  • 12
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    Designing fan charts for GDP growth forecasts to better reflect downturn risks (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1428
    Keywords: Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Wirtschaftsprognose ; Konjunktur ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Forecasts of GDP growth are typically over-optimistic for horizons beyond the current year, particularly because they fail to predict the occurrence or severity of future downturns. Macroeconomic forecasters have also long been under pressure to convey the uncertainty surrounding their forecasts, particularly since the financial crisis. The current paper proposes a method to address both these issues simultaneously by constructing fan charts which are parameterised on the basis of the historical forecasting track record, but distinguish between a "safe" regime and a "downturn-risk" regime. To identify the two regimes, use is made of recent OECD work on early warning indicators of a prospective downturn, relating to housing market or credit developments. Thus, when an early warning indicator is “flashing", the associated fan chart is not only wider to reflect increased uncertainty, but is also skewed to reflect greater downside risks using a two-piece normal distribution of the form used by central banks to provide fan charts around inflation forecasts. Conversely, in a safe regime, when the early warning indicators are not flashing, as well as being symmetric, the fan chart is narrower both relative to the downturn-risk regime and relative to what the fan chart would be if the dispersion was calculated with respect to the entire forecast track record with no distinction between regimes. The method is illustrated by reference to OECD GDP forecasts for the major seven economies made just prior to the global financial crisis, with fan charts calibrated using the track record of forecasts published in the OECD Economic Outlook. Fan charts which take account of early warning indicators in this way are much better at encapsulating the outturns associated with a downturn than a symmetrical fan chart calibrated indiscriminately on all forecast errors.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/e86f1bfc-en
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  • 13
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    Using crunchbase for economic and managerial research (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry working papers 2017, 08
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry working papers
    Keywords: Datenbank ; Unternehmensgründung ; Gründungsfinanzierung ; Risikokapital ; Patent ; Crunchbase ; Science and Technology ; Industry and Services ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This note describes a new database on innovative start-ups and companies, called Crunchbase, with a focus on its potential for economic and managerial research. Crunchbase is rapidly being discovered by scholars from different fields. It has notably already informed studies on specific sectors as well as studies of networks in the start-up ecosystem. This note first describes the contents of Crunchbase and then reviews academic research that has used it. We further suggest that many more valuable avenues for economic and managerial research can be opened through the combination of Crunchbase with selected supplementary data sources and provide two such examples.
    DOI: 10.1787/6c418d60-en
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  • 14
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    Links between weak investment and the slowdown in productivity and potential output growth across the OECD (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1304
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Produktionspotenzial ; Investition ; Kapitalstock ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The OECD framework for estimating potential output is combined with previous OECD empirical research to analyse the causes of recent weak productivity growth. Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis, the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration in potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. Circumstantial evidence suggests that a misallocation of capital in the pre-crisis period also contributed to the slowdown in capital stock growth, particularly among the most severely affected countries. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, at a time when the use of conventional macro policy instruments has become increasingly constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competitionfriendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlwvz0smq45-en
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  • 15
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    The use of models in producing OECD macroeconomic forecasts (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1336
    Keywords: Wirtschaftsprognose ; Prognoseverfahren ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper firstly describes the role of models in producing OECD global macroeconomic forecasts; secondly, reviews the OECD's forecasting track record; and finally, considers the relationship between forecast performance and models. OECD forecasts are not directly generated from a single global model, but instead rely heavily on expert judgment which is informed by inputs from a range of different models, with forecasts subjected to repeated peer review. For the major OECD economies, current year GDP growth forecasts exhibit a number of desirable properties including that they are unbiased, outperform naïve forecasts and mostly identify turning points. Moreover, there is a trend improvement in current-year forecasting performance which is partly attributed to the increasing use of high frequency ‘now-casting’ indicator models to forecast the current and next quarter’s GDP. Conversely, the track record of one-year-ahead forecasts is much less impressive; such forecasts are biased, often little better than naïve forecasts and are poor at anticipating downturns. Forecasts tend to cluster around those from other international organisations and consensus forecasts; it is particularly striking that differences in one-year-ahead forecasts between forecasters are relatively minor in comparison with the size of average errors made by all of them. This may reflect herding behaviour by forecasters as well as the mean reversion properties of models. These weaknesses in forecasting performance beyond the current year underline the importance of increased efforts to use models to characterise the risk distribution around the baseline forecast, including through the increased use of model-based scenario analysis.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlnb59tmdls-en
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  • 16
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    Cardiac arrest or dizzy spell : why is world trade so weak and what can policy do about it? (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper no. 18 (September 2016)
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.18
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Betriebliche Wertschöpfung ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently. There are both structural and cyclical reasons for the slowdown. A deceleration in the rate of trade liberalisation post 2000 was initially obscured by the ongoing expansion of global value chains and associated rapid emergence of China in the world economy. Post the financial crisis global value chains started to unwind and, possibly associated with this, Chinese and Asian trade weakened markedly. These structural changes were compounded by insipid demand due to anaemic growth of global investment, as well as intra-euro area trade, both of which are trade intensive. The slowdown in world trade growth post crisis, if sustained, will have serious consequences for the medium-term growth of productivity and living standards. Trade policy has significant potential to reinvigorate trade growth but the political environment for reforms is difficult, with a growing polarisation of OECD electorates into pro- and anti- globalisation supporters. Further trade and investment policy liberalisation should be introduced as part of a wider package of structural reforms to spread the benefits of freer trade and investment more widely.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlr2h45q532-en
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  • 17
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    No country for young firms? : start-up dynamics and national policies (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry policy papers no. 29
    Keywords: Science and Technology ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides new cross-country evidence on the links between national policies and the growth patterns of start-ups. In particular, it compares for the first time the heterogeneous effects of national policies on entrants and incumbents, within the same country, industry, and time period. A number of key facts emerge. First, start-ups in volatile sectors and in sectors that exhibit higher growth dispersion are significantly more exposed to national policies than start-ups in other sectors. Second, start-ups are systematically more exposed than incumbents to the policy environment and national framework conditions. Third, the results suggest that timely bankruptcy procedures and strong contract enforcement are key to establishing a dynamic start-up environment.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jm22p40c8mw-en
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  • 18
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    An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1294
    Keywords: Produktionspotenzial ; Produktionsfunktion ; Arbeitsproduktivität ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Finanzkrise ; OECD-Staaten ; Employment ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisions to OECD published estimates of the output gap around the period of the financial crisis have been exceptionally large, with by far the largest contribution to these revisions coming from the labour-efficiency gap. The current paper investigates a modification to the standard OECD production function method for deriving potential output, which involves an additional cyclical adjustment in the derivation of trend labour efficiency. The additional adjustment helps to reduce the occurrence of large end-point revisions and of sign switches between the initial and final estimates of the labour-efficiency gap. The variables which are most often found to be useful in providing this cyclical adjustment of labour efficiency are manufacturing capacity utilisation and the investment share. However, for a few countries additional variables – house prices and credit – have been used to provide the cyclical adjustment, although this raises an issue as to whether the cyclical adjustment should be limited to a core set of variables to ensure the method remains reasonably homogenous across countries. Recent improvements to the specification of the Phillips curve, which imply a tighter fit between the unemployment gap and inflation, should also reduce end-point revisions to the unemployment gap in future.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jm0qwpqmz34-en
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  • 19
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    Reshoring : myth or reality? (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry policy papers no. 27
    Keywords: Science and Technology ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The news that companies in OECD economies are increasingly bringing manufacturing activities back home has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. Headline cases of a number of large multinational companies have given increased visibility to the phenomenon of reshoring in the economic press, academic research and policy discussions.. The debate on re-shoring (often also called “backshoring”, “nearshoring”, “onshoring”) is very lively with some even arguing that the time of offshoring has come to an end. But considerable disagreement exists about how important this trend actually is for economies in particular the number of jobs that reshoring is supposed to bring back. While policy makers in OECD economies hope that reshoring might help to revitalise their slumping manufacturing industries, the rationale for policy measures around reshoring is not clear-cut.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jm56frbm38s-en
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  • 20
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    The dynamics of employment growth : new evidence from 18 countries (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 96 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry policy papers no. 14
    Keywords: Employment ; Science and Technology ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Motivated by the ongoing interest of policy makers in the sources of job creation, this paper presents results from a new OECD project on the dynamics of employment (DynEmp) based on an innovative methodology using firm-level data (i.e. national business registers or similar sources). It demonstrates that among small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), young firms play a central role in creating jobs, whereas old SMEs tend to destroy jobs. This pattern holds robustly across 17 OECD countries and Brazil, extending recent evidence found in the United States. The paper also shows that young firms are always net job creators throughout the business cycle, even during the financial crisis. During the crisis, entry and post-entry growth by young firms were affected most heavily, although downsizing by old firms was responsible for most job losses. The results also highlight large cross-country differences in the growth potential of young firms, pointing to the role played by national policies in enabling successful firms to create jobs.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jz417hj6hg6-en
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  • 21
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    What drives the dynamics of business growth? (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 91 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry policy papers no. 1
    Keywords: Unternehmenswachstum ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Arbeitsrecht ; Arbeitsschutz ; Finanzsystem ; Industrieländer ; Science and Technology ; Industry and Services ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Differences in the dynamisms of economies are persistent. Notwithstanding the growing body of evidence documenting these large cross-country differences, our understanding of what drives them is still rather limited. This paper seeks to help close this gap. Using unique data for ten countries the analysis sheds light on the factors that shape the distribution of firm growth and on what role policies play in driving cross-country differences. The paper provides new evidence on the link of labour market regulation, bankruptcy legislation, financial market development and R&D support policies with growth dynamics. The study goes beyond looking at differences in average growth rates as it analyses changes in the whole distribution of firms.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k486qtttq46-en
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