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  • 2010-2014  (10)
  • 1980-1984
  • 2012  (10)
  • Lin, Justin Yifu
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  • 2010-2014  (10)
  • 1980-1984
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Unexpected Global Financial Crisis : Researching Its Root Cause (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (82 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu The Unexpected Global Financial Crisis
    Abstract: The world is currently still struggling with the aftermath of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Following a description of the eruption, evolution and consequences of the global crisis, this paper reviews alternative hypotheses for the causes of the global financial crisis as well as their empirical evidence. The paper refutes the frequently voiced view that the global crisis was caused by global imbalances that reflected economic policies of East Asian countries. Instead, it argues that global imbalances were the result of excess demand in the United States, resulting from both the public debt in the United States arising from the Afghanistan and Iraqi wars and tax cuts and the overconsumption by households supported by the wealth effect from the housing bubble in the United States. The housing bubble itself was the outcome of the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy in the aftermath of the burst of the "dot-com" bubble in 2001, the lack of appropriate financial regulation, and housing policies aimed at expanding the mortgage market to low-income borrowers. It was possible to maintain the large trade deficits of the United States for such a long period of time because of the dollar's reserve currency status. When the housing bubble in the United States burst, the global crisis ensued. The paper also analyzes why China's trade surplus increased significantly in general and with the United States in particular in recent years, and argues that this increase was caused by both the relocation of the labor-intensive tradable sector of East Asian economies to China and high corporate saving rates in China as a result of its dual-track approach to reform
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5937
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Beyond Keynesianism : Global Infrastructure Investments in Times of Crisis (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu Beyond Keynesianism
    Abstract: As the world recovers only slowly from the 2008 financial crisis and Europe is facing a looming debt crisis, concerns have increased that the "new normal"-a period of high unemployment, low returns on investment, high risks, and low growth-may become protracted in advanced economies. If growth remains weak, unemployment rates and debt levels will be slow to recede. Consequently, the global recovery may continue to be fragile for years to come. What the world needs now is a growth-lifting strategy. This strategy could take the form of a global infrastructure initiative. Since debt levels are high, governments in the United States and Europe could increase demand and support growth through investments in bottleneck-releasing infrastructure projects that are self-financing. An infrastructure initiative should, however, go beyond the borders of advanced countries and include developing countries. Economic and social returns to infrastructure investments tend to be high in developing countries, which have become increasingly important drivers of global growth. At the same time, infrastructure investments require capital goods, most of which are produced in high-income countries. Scaling up infrastructure investment in developing countries could therefore help generate a virtuous cycle in support of a global recovery
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5940
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Learning from China's Rise to Escape the Middle-Income Trap : A New Structural Economics Approach to Latin America (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (63 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu Learning from China's Rise to Escape the Middle-Income Trap
    Abstract: This paper discusses the causes of the middle-income trap in Latin America and the Caribbean, identifies the challenges and opportunities for Latin America that come from China's rise, and draws lessons from New Structural Economics and the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework to help Latin America escape the middle-income trap. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are caught in a middle-income trap due to their inability to structurally upgrade from low value-added to high value-added products. Governments in Latin America and the Caribbean should intervene in industries in which they have a comparative advantage, calibrating supporting policies in close collaboration with the private sector through public-private sector alliances. Through continuous structural upgrading in sectors intensive in factors such as natural resources, scientific knowledge, and unskilled labor, the region could achieve dynamic growth. This would require investments in education, research and development, and physical infrastructure. Therefore, industrial upgrading and diversification would be essential to avoid further de-industrialization arising from the competitive pressures of the rise of China, broaden the base for economic growth, and create the basis for further sustained reduction in unemployment, poverty and income inequality. Failure to do so would lead to a loss of competitiveness and risks of further de-industrialization
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6165
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Reform of the International Monetary System : A Jagged History and Uncertain Prospects (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (62 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Justin Yifu Lin Reform of the International Monetary System
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the historical evolution of the international monetary system in the context of the rising role of developing countries in the world economy and the emerging multi-polar growth setting. It evaluates the stability of the current "non-system" and how the global economic context is likely to affect that stability in the coming years with potential adverse effects on both advanced and developing economies. Given the likely trend toward a multi-polar reserve currency system, the paper evaluates the stability of the emerging system, as well as the current proposals for reform of the international monetary system. The paper concludes that more ambitious reforms of the system may be needed to meaningfully reduce future global economic and financial instability
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6070
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Leading Dragons Phenomenon : New Opportunities for Catch-Up in Low-Income Countries (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (60 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Chandra, Vandana Leading Dragons Phenomenon
    Abstract: Modern economic development is accompanied by the structural transformation from an agrarian to an industrial economy and occurs through a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading. Since the 18th century, all countries that industrialized successfully in Europe, North America and East Asia followed their comparative advantage and leveraged the late-comer advantage to emulate the leader-follower flying geese pattern of industrial upgrading. The large dynamic emerging market countries such as China, India and Brazil are also engaged in industrial upgrading but with a critical difference. In particular, because of its sheer size, China has absorbed nearly all labor-intensive jobs and become the world?s largest exporter of labor-intensive products. The current view is that China?s dominance hinders poor countries from developing similar industries. The authors argue that industrial upgrading has increased wages and is causing China to graduate from labor-intensive to more capital- and technology-intensive industries. These industries will shed labor and create a huge opportunity for lower wage countries to start a phase of labor-intensive industrialization. This process, called the Leading Dragon Phenomenon, offers an unprecedented opportunity to low-income Sub-Saharan Africa where the industrial sector is underdeveloped and investment capital and entrepreneurial skills are leading constraints to manufacturing. It can seize the opportunity and resolve the constraints by attracting some of the OFDI flowing currently from China, India and Brazil into the manufacturing sectors of other developing countries. All low-income countries will compete but to catch the jobs spillover from China, the winner must implement credible economic development strategies that are consistent with its comparative advantage
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6000
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    New structural economics : a framework for rethinking development (2012)
    Washington, D.C : World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821389553 , 9780821389577
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (p. cm)
    Edition: 2015 World Bank eLibrary
    DDC: 338.9
    Keywords: Economic development ; Neoclassical school of economics ; Economic development ; Neoclassical school of economics ; Economic development ; Neoclassical school of economics
    Note: Includes bibliographical references and index
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8955-3
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Shifting Patterns of Economic Growth and Rethinking Development (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Justin Yifu Lin Shifting Patterns of Economic Growth and Rethinking Development
    Abstract: This paper provides an historical overview of both the evolution of the economic performance of the developing world and the evolution of economic thought on development policy. The 20th century was broadly characterized by divergence between high-income countries and the developing world, with only a limited number (less than 10 percent of the economies in the world) managing to progress out of lower or middle-income status to high-income status. The last decade witnessed a sharp reversal from a pattern of divergence to convergence-particularly for a set of large middle-income countries. The latter phenomenon was also driven by increasing economic ties among developing countries, and on the intellectual scale, increased knowledge generation and sharing among the developing countries. Re-thinking development policy implies confronting these realities: 20th century economic divergence, the experience of the handful of success stories, and the recent rise of the multi-polar growth world. The paper provides descriptive data and a literature survey to document these trends. The paper also provides a brief survey of the role of multilateral institutions-in particular, the World Bank-in this changing context and offers suggestions on how they can adapt their strategies to improve development outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6040
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Crisis in the Euro Zone : Did the Euro Contribute to the Evolution of the Crisis? (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Justin Yifu Lin The Crisis in the Euro Zone
    Abstract: The simmering sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Zone represents a looming threat to the recovery of the world economy and could lead to a renewed global financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the root causes of the crisis in Europe and assess the extent to which it was driven by the global financial crisis and by factors internal to Europe, notably the adoption of the common currency. Adoption of the euro led to convergence of interest rates in periphery countries to the levels in core countries and, in combination with rising capital inflows owing to greater financial integration, set off a consumption and real estate boom in periphery countries, leading to higher growth and increases in government revenue and spending. The resulting real appreciation led to a loss of competitiveness in periphery countries, adversely affecting export performance and causing rising current account imbalances. While the fiscal position remained manageable before the crisis owing to rising revenue, the recession brought about by the global financial crisis led to the burst of real estate bubbles and a financial sector crisis and to sharply increased budget deficits and worsened debt indicators and triggered the sovereign debt crisis. Core countries, in particular Germany, maintained a competitive edge through wage restraint allowing them to increase exports to periphery countries, while their banks profited from increased lending to non-core countries. In sum, the euro exacerbated intra-European imbalances whose unsustainability became evident in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and triggered the current sovereign debt crisis
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6127
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Demystifying China's Fiscal Stimulus (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fardoust, Shahrokh Demystifying China's Fiscal Stimulus
    Abstract: China's government economic stimulus package in 2008-09 appears to have worked well. It seems to have been about the right size, included a number of appropriate components, and was well timed. Its subnational component was designed to maximize the impact of the stimulus package on the economy and minimize the potential procyclical elements that are usually built into subnational fiscal mechanisms in federal countries. Moreover, China's massive fiscal stimulus played an important role in the overall recovery of the global economy. Using a simple analytical framework, this paper focuses on two key factors behind the success of the stimulus: investments in bottleneck-easing infrastructure projects and countercyclical nature of subnational spending based on the assumption that well-chosen infrastructure projects could improve business climate and thereby crowd in the private investment. The paper concludes that the expansionary subnational government spending played a key role in strengthening the overall impact of the stimulus and sustaining growth. It also highlights the importance of public investment quality and cautions about the sustainability of local government financing through the domestic banking system and increases in local governments off balance sheet or contingent liabilities. These lessons may be of particular relevance today for China, as well as other countries, in formulating policy response to another global economic slowdown or crisis, possibly as a result of the Eurozone turmoil. For China, investing in urban infrastructure and green economy, as well as in higher quality and better targeted social services, will be crucial for improving income inequality and inducing a more inclusive growth path
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6221
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 10
    Book
    Book
    Demystifying the Chinese economy (2012)
    Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press
    Details
    ISBN: 9780521181747 , 9780521191807
    Language: English
    Pages: XVII, 311 S. , graph. Darst. , 23 cm
    Edition: 1st publ., repr.
    Additional Information: Rezension Fleisher, Belton M., 1935 - [Rezension von: Lin, Justin Yifu, Demystifying the Chinese economy] 2013
    DDC: 330.951058
    RVK:
    QG 860
    Keywords: Wirtschaftslage ; Volkswirtschaft ; China ; Economic development History 21st century ; Economic development History 20th century ; China ; Economic development-China-History-20th century*Economic development-China-History-21st century*China-Economic conditions-1976-2000*China-Economic condition ; China Economic conditions 1976-2000 ; China Economic conditions ; Economic development ; China ; History ; 20th century ; Economic development ; China ; History ; 21st century ; China ; Economic conditions ; 1976-2000 ; China ; Economic conditions ; China ; Volkswirtschaft ; Sozioökonomischer Wandel ; Geschichte
    Abstract: Opportunities and challenges in China's economic development -- Why the scientific and industrial revolutions bypasses China -- The great humiliation and the socialist revolution -- The comparative advantage-defying, catching-up strategy and the traditional economic system -- Enterprise viability and factor endowments -- The comparative advantage-following development strategy -- Rural reform and the three rural issues -- Urban reform and the remaining issues -- Reforming the state-owned enterprises -- The financial reforms -- Deflationary expansion and building a new socialist countryside -- Improving the market system and promoting fairness and efficiency for harmonious development -- Reflections on neoclassical theories
    Description / Table of Contents: Opportunities and challenges in China's economic development -- Why the scientific and industrial revolutions bypasses China -- The great humiliation and the socialist revolution -- The comparative advantage-defying, catching-up strategy and the traditional economic system -- Enterprise viability and factor endowments -- The comparative advantage-following development strategy -- Rural reform and the three rural issues -- Urban reform and the remaining issues -- Reforming the state-owned enterprises -- The financial reforms -- Deflationary expansion and building a new socialist countryside -- Improving the market system and promoting fairness and efficiency for harmonious development -- Reflections on neoclassical theories.
    Note: Aus d. Chines. übers
    URL: Inhaltsverzeichnis
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    Book
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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