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  • 2005-2009  (6)
  • 2008  (6)
  • Koske, Isabell  (6)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (6)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    What Drives the NAIRU? Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 52 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.649
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper analyses the determinants of structural unemployment rates in a two-stage approach. First, time-varying NAIRUs are estimated for a panel of OECD economies on the basis of Phillips curve equations using Kalman filter techniques. In a second stage, the estimated NAIRUs are regressed on selected policy and institutional variables. As predicted by theoretical wage-setting/price-setting models, the level of the tax wedge and the user cost of capital are found to be important drivers of structural unemployment. Consistent with earlier studies, the level of product market regulation, union density and the unemployment benefit replacement rate also play an important role in explaining changes in the NAIRU although there is considerable variation in estimates across countries. Nonetheless, the set of structural variables provides a reasonable explanation of NAIRU dynamics over the period 1978-2003, even though recent decreases are better explained than the earlier surge.
    DOI: 10.1787/231764364351
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Euro Changeover in the Slovak Republic : Implications for Inflation and Interest Rates (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 56 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.632
    Keywords: Economics ; El Salvador
    Abstract: In January 2009, the Slovak Republic will adopt the euro and become the 16th member of the euro area. This paper investigates the implications of euro adoption in the Slovak Republic for inflation and interest rates with an attempt to quantify their likely size as well as their consequences for the general public. The empirical analysis – which makes use of the experience of the first-wave euro area countries – suggests that the cash changeover will most likely be associated with a moderate increase in consumer prices, estimated at around 0.3%. Policy measures to reduce this effect include public information campaigns, the conversion of publicly administered prices with the exact conversion rate and the reduction of administrative obstacles to increase supply. The minor purchasing power losses associated with this price increase will not be evenly distributed across the population with higher income households and families with children expected to be harder hit than others. Even though the exchange rate vis-à-vis the euro area will be irrevocably fixed, past appreciations of the koruna are still likely to pass-through to some downward pressure on consumer prices, with the cumulative effect estimated to amount to around 1.5% up to mid-2009. In the longer run, the Balassa-Samuelson effect and other factors affecting catch-up economies may raise the Slovak inflation rate above the euro area level. As capital markets have already fully priced in euro membership, no immediate effect on short- and long-term interest rates in the wholesale markets is to be expected for January 2009. In the longer run, euro adoption can be expected to foster financial integration, thereby leading to a convergence of Slovak retail interest rates towards euro area levels. This reduction in retail interest rates will benefit the general public with mortgage borrowers likely to reap the largest benefits. A potential risk of low real interest rates is the emergence of a boom-bust cycle; prudent fiscal policy and further structural reforms, including enhanced competition, would help to counter any such developments.
    DOI: 10.1787/240631807010
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 112 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.621
    Keywords: Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1787/241172520210
    URL: Volltext
    URL: Volltext
    URL: Volltext
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Mondialisation et hausse des prix à la consommation dans les pays de l'OCDE (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p.)
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe Globalisation and OECD consumer price inflation
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Au cours des 25 dernières années, l'inflation a considérablement diminué dans toutes les économies de l’OCDE. Pendant ce temps, la production de nombreux biens et services est devenue de plus en plus internationalisée et le niveau du commerce entre les pays de l’OCDE et les pays non membres a augmenté. Cet article étudie dans quelle mesure les changements observés dans le mécanisme d’inflation peuvent être attribués à l’intégration croissante des pays non membres de l’OCDE dans l’économie mondiale. Les résultats de l’analyse montrent que i) les prix d’importation jouent un rôle plus important dans la détermination des prix de consommation domestiques depuis le milieu des années 1990 ; ii) la sensibilité de l’inflation aux conditions économiques domestiques a diminué alors que la sensibilité aux conditions économiques extérieures a augmenté, en jouant à travers les prix d’importation ; et iii) la croissance forte du PIB dans les pays non membres au cours des cinq dernières années a contribué à l’augmentation des prix réels du pétrole et des métaux. Les simulations montrent que la globalisation a entraîné des pressions inflationnistes via des prix des matières premières plus élevés et des pressions désinflationnistes via des prix des importations des produits hors matières premières plus faibles. Le dernier effet semble avoir dominé dans la plupart des pays de l’OCDE.
    DOI: 10.1787/9789264053656-4-fr
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The macroeconomic policy challenges of continued globalisation (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-51
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 52 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Défis posés par la poursuite de la mondialisation en matière de politique macroéconomique
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-51
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This article investigates the macroeconomic policy challenges associated with a prospective continuation of international trade and financial integration over the next two decades, making use of a global macroeconomic model newly developed by the OECD. The analysis has several important policy implications. First, with the shares of non-OECD economies in world output, trade, and capital markets rising substantially, global economic developments would become much more dependent on developments in these economies than they used to be. Second, the sustainability of existing global current account imbalances will depend in part on the future build-up and composition of international assets and liabilities. While the imbalances could be sustainable for some time if economic integration continues at its current pace, a slowdown of the globalisation process would raise the likelihood of a disruptive adjustment in financial markets. Third, the increase in trade and financial linkages implies that macroeconomic shocks in a given country or region have a larger impact on other economies in the future than they do today. Policymakers in the OECD may have to act more promptly and more vigorously to economic “shocks” in the non-OECD economies in order to limit the impact on OECD economies.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2008-art5-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Globalisation and OECD consumer price inflation (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-32
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Mondialisation et hausse des prix à la consommation dans les pays de l'OCDE
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-32
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Over the past 25 years inflation has moderated considerably in all OECD economies. At the same time, the production of many goods and services has become increasingly internationalised and the level of trade between the OECD and non-OECD economies has risen markedly. This paper investigates the extent to which the observed changes in the inflation process can be attributed to the increasing integration of non-OECD economies into the global economy. The results of the analysis show that i) import prices have become a more important driver of domestic consumer prices since the mid-1990s; ii) the sensitivity of inflation to domestic economic conditions has declined whereas the sensitivity to foreign economic conditions has risen, working through import prices; and iii) the strong GDP growth in the non-OECD economies over the past five years has contributed to the growth of real oil and metals prices. A scenario analysis shows that globalisation has put upward pressure on inflation via higher commodity prices and downward pressure via lower non-commodity import prices with the latter effect having dominated in most OECD economies.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2008-art4-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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