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  • 2005-2009  (44)
  • de Mello, Luiz  (26)
  • Jones, Randall  (18)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (44)
  • London [u.a.] : Routledge
  • 1
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    Sustaining Growth in Korea by Reforming the Labour Market and Improving the Education System (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 42 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.672
    Keywords: Economics ; Korea, Republic of
    Abstract: A well-functioning labour market is essential to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of population ageing. Priorities are to reverse the rising share of non-regular workers, which has negative implications for both growth and equity, and encourage greater employment of women and youth, who are under-represented in the labour force. Attracting more women to employment requires increasing the availability of childcare, strengthening maternity leave and creating more family-friendly workplaces. Youth employment rates should be boosted by upgrading tertiary education through stronger competition and closer links to enterprises to reduce mismatches. Educational reform should be extended to elementary and secondary schools to enhance efficiency and decrease the burden of private tutoring. The age of retirement of employees should be raised by eliminating mandatory retirement and phasing out the retirement allowance. Active labour market policies should focus on policies to expand human capital rather than wage subsidies.
    DOI: 10.1787/226580861153
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  • 2
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    Current Account Sustainability in Brazil : A Non-Linear Approach (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 35 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.703
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: The possibility that a country’s external current account may adjust nonlinearly to shocks is attracting increasing attention in the empirical literature. To shed further light on this issue in the context of emerging-market economies, this paper uses Brazilian data to estimate the determinants of the current account in a smooth-transition vector-autoregressive (ST-VAR) setting. We allow for the transition parameters and the model coefficients to be estimated simultaneously by non-linear constrained maximum likelihood. We find strong evidence of non-linearity in the VAR when (lagged) government consumption and investment are used as the variables governing transition across regimes. The computation of non-linear impulse response functions suggests that the system’s history, as well as the sign and magnitude of shocks, affect the current account’s responses to exogenous changes in income, government consumption and investment. In particular, responses to fiscal shocks depend on whether they are positive or negative and whether they follow periods of fiscal expansions or contractions. Current account responses to a positive fiscal impulse are much stronger when conditioned on periods of fiscal expansion (rising government consumption) than retrenchment. The importance of conditioning history and the magnitude of shocks in the current account’s response to shocks is confirmed by forecast error variance decomposition analysis.
    DOI: 10.1787/223518424256
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  • 3
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    How Does Decentralised Minimum-Wage Setting Affect Unemployment and Informality? : The Case of Indonesia (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.710
    Keywords: Economics ; Indonesia
    Abstract: The Indonesian labour market is characterised by widespread informality. To some extent, these outcomes can be attributed to a sharp increase in the real value of the minimum wage since 2001, when minimum-wage setting was decentralised to the provincial governments. To test this hypothesis, this paper uses survey data on the labour market (Sakernas), household income and expenditure (Susenas) and the industrial sector (Survei Industri) to construct a district-level dataset spanning the period 1996 to 2004. The effects of changes in the minimum wage on unemployment, formal-sector employment and the incidence of informality in urban areas are estimated separately by fixed effects and jointly by a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimator. Our findings show that an increase in the minimum-to-mean wage ratio is associated with a net increase in employment: a rise in informal-sector employment more than compensates for job losses in the formal sector. This Working Paper relates to the 2008 OECD Economic Assessment of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/indonesia).
    DOI: 10.1787/222850046464
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  • 4
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    Financial Stability : Overcoming the Crisis and Improving the Efficiency of the Banking Sector (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.738
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The crisis that originated in mid-2007 in the United States and deepened in September 2008 is the largest peace-time disruption of financial markets since the Great Depression. It was triggered by a number of factors, namely the large amount of lending to subprime borrowers, the expansion of securitisation resulting in a disconnect between loan originators and final investors, the questionable assessments of credit rating agencies and the unprecedented resort to off-balance sheet vehicles. These developments took place during a traditional credit boom and reinforced the skyrocketing of asset prices, erosion of lending standards and under-pricing of risk. The crisis had serious repercussions worldwide, particularly in Europe, given the global nature of financial markets. This paper begins by considering why the Japanese banking system was initially relatively resilient to the deterioration in the global financial system, although there were some secondary effects that are discussed in the following section. The third section outlines the emergency response of the Japanese authorities to the financial crisis, including quantitative measures by the central bank and other institutions and regulatory changes by the Financial Services Agency (FSA). At the same time, the authorities have taken steps to improve the regulatory framework. The fourth section goes beyond the crisis to consider policies to boost chronically low profitability in the banking sector. Measures to promote efficiency in the financial sector by upgrading capital markets and improving the range and quality of financial products are discussed in the following section.
    DOI: 10.1787/220053357172
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  • 5
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    Price and Volume Elasticities of Brazilian Foreign Trade : A Profit Function Approach (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 20 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.704
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil, like other natural resource-exporting countries, has benefited from a sharp increase in commodity prices over the last few years. To investigate the possible impact of terms-of-trade gains on the real economy, this paper estimates normalised quadratic input demand and output supply functions for the Brazilian economy during 1997-2008. Technological change is modelled in a flexible manner through the inclusion of quadratic splines in the profit function. The paper contributes to the literature by using nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression techniques to estimate the input demand and output supply functions and by disaggregating exports and imports into capital, consumption and intermediate goods. Improvements in the terms of trade due to rising export prices and/or falling import prices are associated with hikes in export volumes on the back of rising import demand and some labour shedding in the sectors using imported capital goods. The direct impact of terms-of-trade changes on domestic consumption and investment is comparatively modest, possibly due to the fact that the Brazilian economy remains relatively closed to trade.
    DOI: 10.1787/223388731464
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  • 6
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    The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Transmission in Brazil : A VECM Approach (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 24 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.711
    DOI: 10.1787/222818683155
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  • 7
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    Boosting Productivity in Korea's Service Sector (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.673
    Keywords: Economics ; Korea, Republic of
    Abstract: Labour productivity growth in the service sector has been low relative to manufacturing. This is explained in part by weak competition in services resulting from strict product market regulation and the low level of import penetration and inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Increasing productivity growth in the service sector, which accounts for 67% of employment and 58% of value added in Korea, is essential to sustain high potential growth. The priority is to strengthen competition by eliminating domestic entry barriers, accelerating regulatory reform, upgrading competition policy and reducing barriers to trade and inflows of FDI. Another challenge is to enhance the performance and accelerate the restructuring of small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for over 90% of service-sector employment. Furthermore, it is essential to boost productivity in service industries with high growth potential, such as telecommunications and financial and business.
    DOI: 10.1787/226625875038
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  • 8
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    Reforming the Tax System in Korea to Promote Economic Growth and Cope with Rapid Population Ageing (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 45 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.671
    Keywords: Economics ; Korea, Republic of
    Abstract: Korea has one of the lowest tax burdens in the OECD area, reflecting its small public sector. However, rapid population ageing will put upward pressure on government spending. The challenge is to meet the long-run need for greater expenditures and tax revenue while sustaining strong economic growth. A pro-growth tax reform implies relying primarily on consumption taxes for additional revenue. There is also scope for raising personal income tax revenue from its current low level by broadening the base by reducing the exemptions for personal income. The planned cuts in the corporate tax rate should be financed at least in part by reductions in tax expenditures. The broadening of direct tax bases would also help finance an expansion of the earned income tax credit to address widening income inequality. In addition, the local tax system should be simplified and reformed to enhance the autonomy of local governments.
    DOI: 10.1787/226518762318
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  • 9
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    Improving the Policy Framework in Japan to Address Climate Change (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.740
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan
    Abstract: Japan, a relatively energy-efficient country, has been active in combating climate change. Under the Kyoto Protocol, Japan is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 6% relative to 1990 over the period 2008-12. As of 2007, however, its emissions were up by 9%. Japan has relied primarily on voluntary measures, which are monitored by the government, without binding commitments or price signals on carbon. It is essential to improve the policy framework to achieve its ambitious longer-term target of a 60% to 80% emission reduction by 2050 in a cost-effective manner. Japan should shift from voluntary measures to market-based instruments, notably a mandatory and comprehensive emission trading scheme, supplemented if necessary, by carbon taxes in areas not covered by trading, which minimise abatement costs and promote innovation to reduce emissions. Trading schemes should be linked to those in other countries, while expanding Japan’s use of a well-functioning Clean Development Mechanism. Continued public support for R&D in emission reduction technology, particularly in basic research, is important.
    DOI: 10.1787/218874608768
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  • 10
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    The Determinants of Employment and Earnings in Indonesia : A Multinomial Selection Approach (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.690
    Keywords: Economics ; Indonesia
    Abstract: This paper uses household survey (Sakernas) data from the 1996 and 2004 to estimate the determinants of earnings in Indonesia. The Indonesian labour market is segmented, with a majority of workers engaged in informal-sector occupations, and earnings data are available only for formal-sector workers (salaried employees). This posed problems for the estimation of earnings equations, because selection into different labour market statuses is likely to be non-random. In order to describe selection into different labour market statuses we use the most general version of the method proposed by Dubin and McFadden (1984), which Bourguignon, Fournier and Gurgand (2007) proved to be preferable to other available multinomial selection methods. We also deal with reverse causality between education attainment and earnings by estimating the selection equations using an instrumental variable technique. Our findings cast doubt on the use of a binomial selection rule and suggest that workers with higher levels of educational attainment are most likely to find a job in the formal sector, and that the informal sector is perceived by those workers who cannot obtain a job in the formal sector as an alternative to inactivity. This Working Paper relates to the 2008 OECD Economic Assessment of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/indonesia).
    DOI: 10.1787/224864812153
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  • 11
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    Do Latin American Central Bankers Behave Non-Linearly? : The Experiences of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.679
    DOI: 10.1787/226284172842
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  • 12
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    Health-Care Reform in Japan : Controlling Costs, Improving Quality and Ensuring Equity (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 40 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.739
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan
    Abstract: Japan’s health-care system has provided universal access to care and contributed to the outstanding health status of the Japanese. Public spending has been kept below the OECD average through high co-payment rates and reductions in medical fees. However, with continued upward pressure on expenditure, in part due to rapid population ageing, reforms are needed to limit spending increases through greater efficiency, while improving quality. It is essential to shift long-term care out of hospitals, reform the pricing mechanism away from pay-for-visit, increase the use of generic drugs, encourage healthy ageing and promote restructuring in the hospital sector. Quality should be improved by increasing the availability of effective new drugs and medical devices. In funding spending increases, it is important to limit the share borne by employees to avoid negative effects on the labour market. Japan may need to allow more mixed billing to enhance access to some advanced medical treatments.
    DOI: 10.1787/220005270870
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  • 13
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    The Effectiveness of Education and Health Spending among Brazilian Municipalities (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 23 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.712
    DOI: 10.1787/222817104376
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  • 14
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    Interdependencies between Monetary policy and Foreign-Exchange Intervention under Inflation Targeting : The Case of Brazil and the Czech Republic (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.593
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil ; Czech Republic
    Abstract: The bulk of recent literature on foreign-exchange interventions has overlooked the potential interdependencies that may exist between these operations and the conduct of monetary policy. This is the case even under inflation targeting and especially in emerging-market economies, because central banks often explicitly reserve the right to intervene to calm disorderly markets and to accumulate foreign reserves, and when the exchange rate is perceived as out of step with fundamentals. This paper uses a friction model to estimate intervention reaction functions and the associated marginal effects for Brazil and the Czech Republic since adoption of inflation targeting in these countries in 1999 and 1998, respectively. The main findings are that: i) in both countries interventions occur predominantly to reduce exchange-rate volatility, while in Brazil the central bank also reacts to exchange-rate deviations from medium-term trends; ii) there are strong, asymmetric threshold effects in the reaction functions, and interventions are more likely and of higher magnitudes when they are carried out to depreciate than to appreciate the domestic currency; and iii) interventions seem to take place independently of contemporaneous monetary policy in Brazil, but not in the Czech Republic, where both policies appear to be interrelated.
    DOI: 10.1787/245585283155
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  • 15
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    Tackling Business and Labour Informality in Chile (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 36 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.607
    Keywords: Economics ; Chile
    Abstract: Informality often arises from disincentives associated with high taxes and a restrictive regulatory framework in both labour and product markets. About 20% of the Chilean population aged 15 years and above and working at least 20 hours per week did not have a formal labour contract in 2006. At the same time, nearly 11% of the potential value added tax base is estimated to have been undeclared in 2005. While Chile’s tax system is not particularly burdensome to business formality, there is scope for making product-market regulations less onerous to firms and the labour code more flexible, especially with regards to indefinite contracts and the allocation of working time. Low human capital remains an important obstacle to reducing labour informality. To the extent that informal businesses also hire informally, there is some room for designing policies to tackle business informality in conjunction with those aimed at boosting formal labour contracting. Chile is strengthening its social safety net through the introduction of unemployment insurance and by reforming existing health insurance and pension systems. An important policy question is whether the incentives for formality arising from more comprehensive social protection will be strong enough to compensate for the additional costs these contributory programmes entail. This paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
    DOI: 10.1787/242111325372
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  • 16
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    Avoiding the Value Added Tax : Theory and Cross-Country Evidence (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 23 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.604
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper develops a differential game of tax avoidance by modelling the interactions between a taxpayer and the tax authority. This framework is particularly useful for explicitly modelling situations of conflict. The solution to the game is a non-co-operative Nash that depends on the resources that need to be used by the tax authority to enforce legislation and the cost to be borne by the taxpayer in tax compliance, provided that the curvature of the utility functions is bounded. Empirical evidence is provided for the value added tax (VAT) using a cross-section of OECD and non-OECD countries. OECD indicators of tax administration efficiency are included in the regressions. The empirical findings show that VAT efficiency, defined as the ratio of collections as a share of consumption to the statutory rate, rises the lower the VAT rate, the lower the share of administrative costs in tax revenue (proxying for the efficiency of tax administration), the more pro-competition the regulatory framework in product markets (measuring non-tax incentives for non-compliance) and the better the country’s governance indicators (regulatory quality, rule of law and government effectiveness). This paper is forthcoming in the Public Finance Review.
    DOI: 10.1787/242167601452
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  • 17
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    Reforming the Labour Market in Japan to Cope with Increasing Dualism and Population Ageing (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.652
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan
    Abstract: The proportion of non-regular workers has risen to one-third of total employment. While non-regular employment provides flexibility and cost reductions for firms, it also creates equity and efficiency concerns. A comprehensive approach that includes relaxing the high degree of employment protection for regular workers and expanding the coverage of non-regular workers by the social security system would help to reverse dualism. Given that non-regular workers receive less firm-based training, it is also necessary to expand training outside of firms to support Japan’s growth potential, while enhancing the employment prospects of non-regular workers. Reversing the upward trend in non-regular employment may also encourage greater female labour force participation, which is essential given rapid population ageing that is already reducing Japan’s working-age population by almost 1% each year. Expanding childcare facilities and paying more attention to work-life balance would also boost female employment, while also raising Japan’s exceptionally low birth rate.
    DOI: 10.1787/230264641407
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  • 18
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    Reforming the Tax System in Japan to Promote Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Growth (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 47 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.650
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan
    Abstract: Tax reform is an urgent priority, as Japan needs as much as 5% to 6% of GDP of additional government revenue just to stabilise public debt, which has risen to 180% of GDP. In addition to raising revenue, tax reform should promote economic growth, address the deterioration in income distribution and improve the local tax system. Additional revenue should be obtained primarily by increasing the consumption tax rate, currently the lowest in the OECD area, while broadening the personal and corporate income tax bases. The corporate tax rate, now the highest in the OECD area, should be cut to promote growth, while eliminating aspects of the tax system which discourage labour supply and distort the allocation of capital. Japan should also consider introducing an Earned Income Tax Credit to promote equity. The local tax system should be simplified, increasing reliance on existing taxes on property, income and consumption.
    DOI: 10.1787/230312273167
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  • 19
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    Indonesia: Growth Performance and Policy Challenges (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 48 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.637
    Keywords: Economics ; Indonesia
    Abstract: Indonesia’s growth performance is improving, following a slow recovery from the 1997-98 financial crisis. Investment is picking up, despite considerable business-climate obstacles to entrepreneurship. Unemployment remains high, and labour informality is pervasive. Fiscal policy has been conducted responsibly and in an increasingly decentralised manner. Monetary policy is now carried out within a fully-fledged inflation-targeting framework. This paper argues that the main barriers to raising the economy’s growth potential are to be found on the supply side of the economy. Indonesia will need to improve the business environment and to make better use of labour inputs to put the economy on a higher growth trajectory. The country’s income gap relative to the OECD is sizeable, and several years of sustained growth will be needed to eliminate it. This Working Paper relates to the 2008 OECD Economic Assessment of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/indonesia).
    DOI: 10.1787/236831785800
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  • 20
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    Reforming Housing and Regional Policies in Korea (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.613
    DOI: 10.1787/241645113684
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  • 21
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    Encouraging Labour Force Participation in Chile (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 29 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.608
    Keywords: Economics ; Chile
    Abstract: Chile’s labour force participation is low by comparison with most countries in the OECD area, especially among females and youths. In the case of women, labour supply has risen steadily over time for prime-age and older individuals, against a background of relative stability for men. With regards to youths, participation rates are trending down, primarily as a result of rising school enrolment, especially for males, while remaining fairly low and stable over the years for young females. The main policy challenge in this area is to raise female labour supply further, for both prime-age individuals and youths, as a means of making a better use of labour inputs in support of long-term growth. This can be achieved essentially by removing provisions in the labour code that constrain the allocation of working time and by improving access to affordable child care for mothers with young children. Policies aimed at fostering human capital accumulation for the population as a whole would also contribute, because educational attainment is one of the most powerful determinants of labour force participation. This paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
    DOI: 10.1787/242103851837
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  • 22
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    Managing Chile's Macroeconomy during and after the Copper Price Boom (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.605
    Keywords: Economics ; Chile
    Abstract: Compliance with the structural budget surplus rule, which has been in place since 2001, has allowed the government to maintain a counter-cyclical fiscal stance in an environment of rising copper prices, while delivering a gradual reduction in public indebtedness. Monetary policy is conducted within a framework that combines inflation targeting with exchange-rate flexibility. A Fiscal Responsibility Law was promulgated in September 2006, strengthening the macroeconomic framework further by embedding the fiscal rule in law and setting out regulations for the use of fiscal savings. Complementary pension reform is being discussed in Congress with the objective of strengthening the pension system’s solidarity pillar and encouraging retirement saving. The tax system is also being improved with a view to removing obstacles to financial deepening and to business-sector development. Government spending on social programmes is budgeted to rise considerably, in line with the authorities’ emphasis on social development. The main challenge in the macroeconomic area is to maintain the policy setting that has served Chile so well over the recent copper-price upswing, while tempering demands for hiking public social spending and maintaining a lean public sector in a low-tax, low-debt environment. This paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
    DOI: 10.1787/242135544660
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  • 23
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    Enhancing the Globalisation of Korea (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.614
    DOI: 10.1787/241606341724
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  • 24
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    Public Social Spending in Korea in the Context of Rapid Population Ageing (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 54 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.615
    DOI: 10.1787/241545746547
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  • 25
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    Enhancing the Productivity of the Service Sector in Japan (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 54 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.651
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan
    Abstract: Labour productivity growth in the service sector, which accounts for 70% of Japan’s economic output and employment, has slowed markedly in recent years in contrast to manufacturing. The disappointing performance is associated with weak competition in the service sector resulting from strict product market regulation and the low level of import penetration and inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Reversing the deceleration in productivity growth in the service sector is essential to raise Japan’s growth potential. The key is to eliminate entry barriers, accelerate regulatory reform, upgrade competition policy and reduce barriers to trade and inflows of FDI. Special attention should be given to factors limiting productivity growth in services characterised by either low productivity or high growth potential, such as retail, transport, energy and business services. Finally, it is essential to increase competition in public services, such as health and education, where market forces have been weak.
    DOI: 10.1787/230272412875
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    Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability in Latin America : The Cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 31 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.545
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil ; Chile ; Colombia ; Mexico
    Abstract: In 1999, new monetary policy regimes were adopted in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, combining inflation targeting with floating exchange rates. These regime changes have been accompanied by lower volatility in the monetary stance in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, despite higher inflation volatility in Brazil and Colombia. This paper estimates a conventional New Keynesian model for these four countries and shows that: i) the post-1999 regime has been associated with greater responsiveness by the monetary authority to changes in expected inflation in Brazil and Chile, while in Colombia and Mexico monetary policy has become less counter-cyclical, ii) lower interest-rate volatility in the post-1999 period owes more to a benign economic environment than to a change in the policy setting, and iii) the change in the monetary regime has not yet resulted in a reduction in output volatility in these countries.
    DOI: 10.1787/285851107845
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  • 27
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    Local Government Finances : The Link between Intergovernmental Transfers and Net Worth (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 30 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.581
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: There is a large literature on how the sharing of revenue between different levels of government and the design of intergovernmental transfer schemes affect sub-national finances. Using a panel of OECD countries during 1980-2005, this paper tests for: i) the presence of a stable long-run statistical association between changes in transfer receipts and sub-national net worth and ii) the direction of causality between changes in transfer receipts and net worth. The main empirical findings are that, first, there is a stable long-term relationship between transfer receipts and local government net worth for the case of current, but not capital, transfers. An increase in intergovernmental transfer receipts is found to be associated with a modest reduction in the recipient jurisdiction’s net worth over the long term, but a fall in net worth is associated with an almost one-to-one subsequent increase in transfer receipts. Second, the direction of causality is sensitive to the technique used to estimate the long-term parameters. One technique suggests that causality runs from transfers to net worth, which lends support to a large literature on the effect of cost-shifting on sub-national budget outcomes. But causality also appears to run from net worth to transfer receipts, suggesting that transfers may be used as a deficitfinancing tool.
    DOI: 10.1787/080476332876
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  • 28
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    The Brazilian 'Tax War' : The Case of Value-Added Tax Competition among the States (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.544
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: This paper tests for horizontal tax competition in the VAT for a sample of Brazilian states in the period 1985-2001. The states have considerable autonomy to set their VAT rates and bases, often using this tax as an industrial policy tool. The empirical findings, based on the estimation of a tax reaction function in an error-correction set-up, confirm the hypothesis of horizontal tax competition: the states react strongly to changes in their neighbours? VAT code, especially those that belong to the same geo-economic region. Also, there appears to be a Stackelberg leader among the states, with the remaining jurisdictions responding strongly to its policy moves. There is no co-occupancy of tax bases between different levels of government and hence limited scope for vertical externalities in tax setting. But the fact that the federal government shares with the states part of the revenue of its more elastic taxes, such as the income tax, appears to affect the opportunity cost of horizontal tax competition.
    DOI: 10.1787/286220576442
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  • 29
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    Income Inequality, Poverty and Social Spending in Japan (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 42 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.556
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan
    Abstract: Income inequality and relative poverty among the working-age population in Japan have risen to levels above the OECD average. This trend is partially explained by labour market dualism, with an increasing proportion of non-regular workers who are paid significantly less than regular workers, as well as by other factors, including the ageing of the workforce. Social spending as a share of GDP has been expanding in the context of population ageing, although it remains below the OECD average and the proportion received by low-income households is small. Consequently, the impact of social spending on inequality and poverty is weak compared to other OECD countries and inadequate to offset the deterioration in market income. The scope for increasing social spending is constrained by the fiscal situation. Instead, reversing the upward trend in inequality and poverty requires reforms to reduce labour market dualism and better target social spending on low-income households, particularly single parents. This Working Paper relates to the 2006 OECD Economic Survey of Japan (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/japan).
    DOI: 10.1787/177754708811
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  • 30
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    Upgrading Japan's Innovation System to Sustain Economic Growth (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 49 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.527
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan
    Abstract: Increasing productivity growth through innovation is a key to raising living standards. Although R&D intensity in Japan is the third highest in the OECD area, the benefits do not appear to have been commensurate with the level of investment. The innovation system, which developed during the catchingup process, is largely input-driven and focused on incremental innovation based on closed and stable corporate and employment systems. However, this approach is less appropriate in the current global environment that favours risk-taking and a more open system relying on external linkages. To improve the innovation system, a broad-based strategy is needed, including a reform of framework conditions in the product and labour markets to strengthen competition and mobility, enhance international R&D links and improve the environment for venture business. Education and public research should be upgraded through stronger competition. The effectiveness of science and technology policy should be increased by strengthening its link to economic framework policies. This Working Paper relates to the 2006 OECD Economic Survey of Japan (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/japan).
    DOI: 10.1787/365562216004
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  • 31
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    Consolidating Macroeconomic Adjustment in Brazil (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 42 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.531
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil has made considerable progress in recent years towards consolidating macroeconomic stability, which is a key framework condition for sustained growth. Monetary policy continues to respond swiftly to changes in the inflation outlook, anchoring expectations. Fiscal policy has been guided by debt sustainability considerations, delivering primary budget surpluses that have often exceeded the end-year targets. Nevertheless, while the public debt-to-GDP has been reduced, it remains high, especially in comparison with other emerging-market economies. Brazil?s overarching macroeconomic challenge is therefore to continue to reduce the public debt overhang while improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, which has so far been underpinned by revenue hikes, rather than a retrenchment of expenditure commitments. To do so, measures will need to be taken to arrest the increase in current spending, especially on pensions, paving the way for subsequently removing distortions and reducing the tax burden over the medium to longer term, once the debt-to-GDP ratio has been reduced in a sustainable manner. The favourable domestic macroeconomic environment, with falling inflation and improving growth prospects, appears propitious for reform towards the gradual phasing-out of directed credit and a reduction in compulsory reserve requirements.
    DOI: 10.1787/361015676222
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  • 32
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    Brazil's Fiscal Stance during 1995-2005 : The Effect of Indebtedness on Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.485
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil's fiscal adjustment since the floating of the real in 1999 has been impressive, even in periods of lacklustre growth. This suggests a remarkable fiscal effort to ensure public debt sustainability. To better gauge the magnitude of this adjustment effort, this paper applies the methodology used by the OECD Secretariat to distinguish changes in the fiscal stance that are due to policy action from those that are related to the automatic stabilisers built into the tax code, the social security system and unemployment insurance. The paper's main finding is that discretionary action tends to be essentially pro-cyclical in downturns, underscoring the presence of a strong "sustainability motive" in the conduct of Brazilian fiscal policy. Spending on mandatory items, such as personnel, are pro-cyclical in upturns too, which can create a "ratcheting-up" effect on government spending over time, an issue that will have to be addressed to improve the quality of on-going fiscal adjustment. An increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio by 1 percentage point is associated with a decrease in discretionary federal spending by 0.33 percentage point during 1997-2005. This responsiveness appears to have become stronger after the floating of the real in 1999. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Brazil (www.oecd.org/eco/survey/brazil).
    DOI: 10.1787/857281763217
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  • 33
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    Social Security Reform in Brazil : Achievements and Remaining Challenges (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 22 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.534
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: This paper reviews the main elements of social security reform in Brazil since 1998 and discusses areas where further policy action is yet to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the social-security system over time. Outlays on pensions paid to private-sector workers have risen as a result of population ageing and the increase in the value of the minimum wage in real terms, to which the minimum pension is linked. Some features of existing social protection programmes, including means-tested old-age and disability-related benefits, reduce the incentives facing workers to seek social security coverage. At the same time, an expansion of the base of contributions to social security has been constrained by widespread labour informality. Further reform will therefore need to focus on options for containing the rise in social security spending while tackling labour informality so as to broaden the base of contributions.
    DOI: 10.1787/353362832738
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  • 34
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    The Rates and Revenue of Bank Transaction Taxes (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 29 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.494
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper provides cross-country empirical evidence on the productivity of bank transaction taxes (BTTs). Our data set comprises six Latin American countries that have levied BTTs since the late 1980s: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. We find that, for a given tax rate, revenue declines over time. Therefore, in order to meet a fixed revenue target in real terms, the tax rate needs to be raised repeatedly. However, we also find that successive increases in the tax rate erode the tax base by more than they raise revenue yield and that the higher the increase in the tax rate, the more and faster the tax base is eroded. We conclude that BTTs do not provide a reliable source of revenue, especially over the medium term.
    DOI: 10.1787/652416621832
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  • 35
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    Boosting Innovation Performance in Brazil (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.532
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil's main challenge in innovation policy is to encourage the business sector to engage in productivity-enhancing innovative activities. At 1% of GDP, R&D spending (both public and private) is comparatively low by OECD standards and is carried out predominantly by the government. Most scientists work in public universities and research institutions, rather than in the business sector. Output indicators, such as the number of patents held abroad, suggest that there is much scope for improvement. Academic patenting effort is being stepped up and should be facilitated by the easing of restrictions on the transfer and sharing of proceeds of intellectual property rights between businesses and public universities and research institutions. Innovation policy is beginning to focus on the potential synergies among science and technology promotion, R&D support and trade competitiveness. To be successful in boosting business innovation, these policies will need to be complemented by measures aimed at tackling the shortage of skills in the labour force; this shortage is among the most important deterrents to innovation in Brazil, particularly against the backdrop of a widening gap in tertiary educational attainment with respect to the OECD area.
    DOI: 10.1787/357276015553
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  • 36
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    Strengthening the Integration of Japan in the World Economy to Benefit more Fully from Globalisation (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 36 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.526
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan
    Abstract: Globalisation through international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and international movements of labour is a key force driving economic growth. However, Japan is an outlier among OECD countries, with the lowest levels of import penetration, stock of inward FDI relative to GDP and foreign workers as a share of employment, reflecting the legacy of policies during its post-war development. Policy reforms would help Japan make greater use of goods, services, capital, technology and human resources from abroad. Given the close links among trade, investment and labour flows, it is important to pursue a comprehensive approach, including; i) reducing barriers to FDI and imports, particularly in agriculture, through multilateral trade negotiations and regional trade agreements; ii) relaxing product market regulations, notably in the service sector; iii) fully opening the M&A market to foreign firms; and iv) easing controls on the inflow of foreign workers, including those in non-technical occupations. This Working Paper relates to the 2006 Economic Survey of Japan (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/japan).
    DOI: 10.1787/371585541612
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  • 37
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    Improving Labour Utilisation in Brazil (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 41 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.533
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Labour force participation is comparable to the OECD area for prime-age males. It is somewhat lower for females and is trending down for youths as a result of rising school enrolment. The labour market is placing an increasing premium on skills, making it particularly difficult for the less educated to find a job. Labour informality is pervasive and turnover high, especially for the less educated, discouraging investment in labour training and the acquisition of job-related skills, and perpetuating income disparities. The main policy challenge is to improve labour utilisation by reducing informality and fostering human capital accumulation on and off the job. A stable macroeconomy is a pre-condition for reducing unemployment, but a greater focus on activation within the current policy framework would be advisable. To close the remaining gender gap, female labour force participation in full-time jobs could be encouraged by increasing the supply of affordable child care and pre-school education. Labour turnover can be reduced by mitigating the incentives for negotiated separation, which currently arise from the design of severance insurance (FGTS) in the event of unfair dismissal. Skill marketability can be enhanced through the introduction of a national skills certification system, and labour training can become more cost-effective through increased contestability in existing programmes.
    DOI: 10.1787/353720822276
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  • 38
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    Getting the Most Out of Public-Sector Decentralisation in Korea (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 31 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.468
    Keywords: Economics ; Korea, Republic of
    Abstract: This paper discusses policies to improve fiscal relations between levels of government to better meet the needs of citizens, an objective of the government’s “Roadmap for Decentralisation”. Although local government accounts for around half of total government spending, they have little autonomy and fiscal resources vary sharply between regions. The priority should be to enhance the independence of local authorities by establishing a clear division of responsibilities and transferring additional assignments to the local level. The general local governments should also have more influnence on education, while providing more support, through stronger linkages with the local education authorities, with a final aim of merger. The allocation of intergovernmental grants should be more transparent and the regulations attached to them should be relaxed to expand flexibility, while increasing reliance on block grants. Improving the fiscal federalism framework also requires more revenue raising power for local governments while simplifying the structure of local taxes. Greater accountability and rules are needed to ensure sound fiscal management by local governments. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Korea (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/korea).
    DOI: 10.1787/570027228062
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  • 39
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    Fostering Innovation in Chile (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.454
    Keywords: Economics ; Chile
    Abstract: A good framework for investment in innovation can contribute to increasing Chile’s growth potential. Spending on R&D is currently low in relation to GDP and heavily reliant on government financing. Innovation activity in the business sector is also limited by insufficient seed and venture capital and human capital constraints. This is despite several favourable framework conditions, including a stable macro-economy, liberal foreign trade and investment regimes, and reasonably pro-competition regulations in product markets. The government intends to increase public spending on R&D, to be financed by revenue from the mining tax introduced in May 2005, and to create a National Innovation Council. The effectiveness of these measures will depend largely on the extent to which they will boost business-financed innovation consistent with Chile’s comparative advantages. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
    DOI: 10.1787/835465402444
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  • 40
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    The Labour Market in Korea : Enhancing Flexibility and Raising Participation (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 22 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.469
    Keywords: Economics ; Korea, Republic of
    Abstract: This paper analyses the increasing dualism in the Korean labour market and the need to encourage greater labour force participation. Although the rising proportion of non-regular workers lowers labour costs and increases employment flexibility, it has a negative impact on both equity and efficiency over the long term. Relaxing employment protection for regular workers and increasing the coverage of the social safety net for non-regular workers would help limit the extent of dualism. Population ageing is projected to be exceptionally rapid in Korea, leading to a significant decline in the workforce by mid-century. Steps to boost the participation of women through family-friendly policies are a priority. It is also important to encourage employees to stay at firms beyond the age of 50. Making the wage system more dependent on productivity and less on seniority and implementing a company pension system in place of the retirement allowance would help maintain the employment of older persons. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Korea (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/korea).
    DOI: 10.1787/548701741108
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  • 41
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    Sustaining High Growth Through Innovation : Reforming the R&D and Education Systems in Korea (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 53 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.470
    Keywords: Economics ; Korea, Republic of
    Abstract: With inputs of labour and capital slowing, sustaining high growth rates in Korea will increasingly depend on total factor productivity gains, which are in turn driven to a large extent by innovation. While a number of Korean firms are at the world technology frontier in areas such as ICT, the diffusion of technology to lagging sectors is a priority to sustain growth. This paper recommends policies to improve the science and technology system by upgrading the R&D framework, in part through closer linkages between firms, universities and the government, and enhanced intellectual property right protection. Strengthened competition, particularly in the service sector, is needed to promote the diffusion of new technologies. Innovation also requires policies to ensure the supply of high-quality human capital through reforms of tertiary education. This requires a restructuring of the university system through increased competition and deregulation, as well as additional financial resources to improve quality. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Korea (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/korea).
    DOI: 10.1787/507484436664
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  • 42
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    Estimating a Fiscal Reaction Function : The Case of Debt Sustainability in Brazil (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.423
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: This paper reviews recent trends in fiscal performance in Brazil, estimates fiscal reaction functions for the consolidated public sector and different levels of government, and tests for the sustainability of the public debt dynamics. The empirical analysis, based on monthly data for the period 1995-2004, suggests that all levels of government react strongly to changes in indebtedness by adjusting their primary budget surplus targets. In addition, the central government appears to follow a spend-and-tax policy: changes in revenue are affected strongly by expenditure, with about two-thirds of changes in primary spending being offset through higher revenue over the long term. Institutions are also found to matter for fiscal sustainability. The responsiveness of sub-national fiscal stance to indebtedness, as well as that of central government revenue to changes in primary spending, appears to have strengthened after 1998, when ceilings on indebtedness were introduced.
    DOI: 10.1787/556325773018
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  • 43
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    Strengthening Regulation in Chile : The Case of Network Industries (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 30 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.455
    Keywords: Economics ; Chile
    Abstract: Chile’s regulatory framework is working reasonably well. The country’s structural reforms since the 1980s, with the privatisation of utilities and deregulation of product and labour markets, have improved resource allocation and increased the population’s access to basic services, while calling for a comprehensive upgrading of regulatory institutions. At the same time, public-private partnerships (PPPs) are contributing to closing Chile’s infrastructure deficit, particularly in transport. The recurrent cuts in shipments of natural gas from Argentina since 2004 have put additional strain on regulation in the electricity sector to encourage investment in generation and ensure the security of supply. This paper reviews regulatory reform in three network industries (electricity, gas and telecoms), where further liberalisation, particularly in electricity retailing, and improvements in the regulation of telecoms would do much to further improve the business climate. The governance of public-private partnerships can be improved by increasing transparency and accountability in the concession process. In doing so, the government’s exposure to contingent liabilities can be contained. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
    DOI: 10.1787/831502583012
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    Education Attainment in Brazil : The Experience of FUNDEF (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.424
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: For many years, Brazil lagged behind other middle-income countries in terms of school enrolment rates. But since 1998 policies have aimed at bridging this gap, in particular, with the implementation of FUNDEF, a fund for financing sub-national spending on primary and lower-secondary education. Using state- and municipality-level data during 1991-2002, this paper shows that FUNDEF played a key role in the increase in enrolment rates over the period, particularly in small municipalities, which rely more heavily on transfers from higher levels of government as a source of revenue. These findings underscore the importance of FUNDEF in eliminating supply constraints to the improvement of education attainment. Enrolment rates are now nearly universal for primary and lower-secondary education. Emphasis should therefore be placed on policies to improve the quality of services and to remove supply constraints to the expansion of enrolment in upper-secondary and tertiary education.
    DOI: 10.1787/556807485718
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