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  • 2010-2014  (38)
  • 1985-1989
  • Ghani, Ejaz  (21)
  • Lin, Justin Yifu  (17)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (38)
  • Leiden : Brill
  • 1
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    Can Service Be a Growth Escalator in Low-Income Countries? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Can Service Be a Growth Escalator in Low-Income Countries?
    Abstract: Several high-level reports have raised the concern that low-income countries, especially in Africa, are experiencing premature de-industrialization. Have the latecomers to development missed the boat? Are they growing without any structural transformation? Not really. Although their manufacturing sector is not growing, they are benefitting from the Third Industrial Revolution which has enabled them to catch up faster. As services produced and traded across the world expand with advances in technology and globalization, the possibilities for low-income countries to grow faster based on their comparative advantage increases. That comparative advantage can just as easily be in services as in manufacturing. Growth escalators faced by the Lions in Africa may turn out to be different than that experienced by the East Asian Tigers
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6971
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  • 2
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    Regional Diversity and Inclusive Growth in Indian Cities (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Regional Diversity and Inclusive Growth in Indian Cities
    Abstract: This paper examines the employment growth of Indian districts from 2000 to 2010 in the manufacturing and services sectors. Specialization and diversity metrics that combine industries in both sectors are calculated and related to subsequent job growth. The analysis finds robust and consistent evidence that the diversity of industries in the district across the two sectors links to subsequent job growth. Somewhat surprisingly, this link finds its strongest expression outside typical stories about the role of diversity. For example, the growth is strongest in rural areas of districts and in districts with low population density. Diversity correlates with disproportionately higher employment growth in the informal sector and plays a role in generating employment in the district's smaller industries. These findings point toward the "inclusive" nature of diversity-driven growth and highlight a potentially important agenda item for policy makers concerned with inclusive development
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6919
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  • 3
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    Spatial Dynamics of Electricity Usage in India (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (66 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Spatial Dynamics of Electricity Usage in India
    Abstract: India's manufacturing sector has undergone many spatial adjustments since 1989, including, for example, the organized sector's migration to rural locations, the powerful rise of informal manufacturing within cities, and the development of intermediate cities for manufacturing. This paper investigates the impact of these spatial adjustments for electricity usage in India's manufacturing sector. Striking spatial differences in energy usage exist, and whether spatial adjustments exacerbate or alleviate energy consumption strains is important for issues ranging from reducing India's power blackouts to stemming rising pollution levels. Using detailed surveys for the organized and unorganized sectors, the analysis finds that electricity usage per unit of output in urban plants declined steadily during 1989-2010. In the rural areas, by contrast, electricity consumption per unit of output for organized sector plants peaked in 2000 and thereafter declined. Decomposing the observed trends in aggregate electricity usage from 2000 onwards, the paper finds that most reductions in electricity usage per unit of output came from reductions in existing sites of activity (defined through state-industry-urban/rural cells). The second biggest factor leading to reduced usage was lower usage in fast-growing sectors. By contrast, spatial movements of manufacturing activity across India did not significantly change usage levels and may have even increased them. This appears to have been in part because of the split nature of the mobility, with organized and unorganized sectors migrating in opposite directions
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  • 4
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    Political Reservations and Women's Entrepreneurship in India (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Political Reservations and Women's Entrepreneurship in India
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the link between the timing of state-level implementations of political reservations for women in India with the role of women in India's manufacturing sector. It does not find evidence that overall employment of women in manufacturing increased after the reforms. However, the analysis finds significant evidence that more women-owned establishments were created in the unorganized/informal sector. These establishments were concentrated in industries where women entrepreneurs have been traditionally active and the entry was mainly found among household-based establishments. This heightened entrepreneurship does not appear linked to changes in reporting, better access to government contracts and business, or improved financing environments. One interpretation of these results is that the implementation of the political reservations inspired more women to open establishments, and they did so at a small establishment scale in industries where they had experience and/or the support networks of other women
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6307
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  • 5
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    Urbanization and (In)Formalization (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Urbanization and (In)Formalization
    Abstract: Two of the great stylized predictions of development theory, and two of the great expectations of policy makers as indicators of progress in development, are inexorable urbanization and inexorable formalization. Urbanization is indeed happening, beyond the "tipping point" where half the world's population is now urban. However, formalization has slowed down significantly in the past quarter century. Indeed, informality has been increasing. This disconnect raises a number of questions for development analysis and development policy. Is the link between urbanization and formalization more complex than what had been thought? What does this mean for policy? The first core section of this paper asks what exactly is meant by formality and informality. The second core section turns to processes of urbanization and asks how these processes intersect with and interact with the incentives to formalize. The paper examines why cities attract the informal sector and the role that urbanization plays in growth and job creation through both the formal and informal sectors. Cities generate agglomeration benefits in the informal sector, perhaps more so than for the formal sector. The third core section is devoted to policy. At the current conjuncture, agglomeration benefits make a strong case for urbanization as an integral part of development strategy, but concerns about jobless growth and about urban poverty require a focus on the informal sector
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6374
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  • 6
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    What Does MFN Trade Mean for India and Pakistan? : Can MFN be a Panacea? (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: De, Prabir What Does MFN Trade Mean for India and Pakistan?
    Abstract: India and Pakistan, the two largest economies in South Asia, share a common border, culture and history. Despite the benefits of proximity, the two neighbors have barely traded with each other. In 2011, trade with Pakistan accounted for less than half a percent of India's total trade, whereas Pakistan's trade with India was 5.4 percent of its total trade. However, the recent thaw in India-Pakistan trade relations could signal a change. Pakistan has agreed to grant most favored nation status to India. India has already granted most favored nation status to Pakistan. What will be the gains from trade for the two countries? Will they be inclusive? Is most favored nation status a panacea? Should the granting of most favored nation status be accompanied by improvements in trade facilitation, infrastructure, connectivity, and logistics to reap the true benefits of trade and to promote shared prosperity? This paper attempts to answer these questions. It examines alternative scenarios on the gains from trade and it finds that what makes most favored nation status work is the trade facilitation that surrounds it. The results of the general equilibrium simulation indicate Pakistan's most favored nation status to India would generate larger benefits if it were supported by improved connectivity and trade facilitation measures. In other words, gains from trade would be small in the absence of improved connectivity and trade facilitation. The idea of trade facilitation is simple: implement measures to reduce the cost of trading across borders by improving infrastructure, institutions, services, policies, procedures, and market-oriented regulatory systems. The returns can be huge, even with modest resources and limited capacity. The dividends of trade facilitation can be shared by all
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6483
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  • 7
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    Urbanization and Agglomeration Benefits : Gender Differentiated Impacts on Enterprise Creation in India's Informal Sector (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Urbanization and Agglomeration Benefits
    Keywords: Urbanisierung ; Agglomerationseffekt ; Geschlecht ; Unternehmensgründung ; Informelle Wirtschaft ; Indien
    Abstract: This paper presents an exploration at the intersection of four important themes in the current development discourse: urbanization, agglomeration benefits, gender and informality. Focusing on the important policy objective of new enterprise creation in the informal sector, it asks and answers four specific questions on the impact of urbanization and gender. It finds that (i) the effect of market access to inputs, on creation of new enterprises in the informal sector, is greater in more urbanized areas; (ii) This "urbanization gradient" also exists separately for the creation of female owned enterprises and male owned enterprises; (iii) there is a differential impact of female specific market access compared to male specific market access, on female owned enterprise creation in the informal sector; and (iv) gender specific market access to inputs matters equally in more or less urbanized areas. Among the policy implications of these findings are that (i) new enterprise creation by females can be encouraged by urbanization, but (ii) the effect can be stronger by improving female specific market access, especially to inputs. The analysis in this paper opens up a rich research agenda, including further investigation of the nature of input based versus output based perspectives on agglomeration benefits, and exploration of policy instruments that can improve female specific market access, which is shown to increase female owned enterprise creation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6553
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  • 8
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    Friend or Foe or Family? : A Tale of Formal and Informal Plants in India (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (69 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Friend or Foe or Family?
    Abstract: This paper examines the interaction between formal (organized) and informal (unorganized) plants in the manufacturing sector in India. How has the size and productivity of the plants in the organized sector affected the plants in the unorganized sector? How have informal plants affected formal plants? Are the magnitudes of the effects symmetric in either direction? The evidence shows that there are positive horizontal and vertical spillovers in each direction. Informal firms are an important supplier of inputs to formal firms. Employment and output in the organized sector is greater in those states in India that have a greater presence of unorganized suppliers of inputs. Conversely, unorganized employment and output are greater in states that have a greater presence of organized buyers of inputs. But there are two important asymmetries in the relationship between the organized and unorganized sectors. First, the unorganized sector is much more dependent on and responsive to organized sector presence than vice versa. Second, unorganized sector productivity is dependent on and responsive to organized sector productivity and presence but the reverse is not true
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6588
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  • 9
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    Highway to Success in India : The Impact of the Golden Quadrilateral Project for the Location and Performance of Manufacturing (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Highway to Success in India
    Abstract: The infrastructure gap is one of the most significant impediments to India realizing its growth and poverty reduction potential. Although India's transport network is one of the most extensive in the world, accessibility and connectivity are limited. Only 20 percent of the national highway network (which carries 40 percent of traffic) is four-lane and one-fourth of the rural population does not have access to an all-weather road. It is estimated that the transport sector alone will require an investment of nearly US
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6320
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  • 10
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    How to Avoid Middle Income Traps? : Evidence from Malaysia (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Flaaen, Aaron How to Avoid Middle Income Traps?
    Abstract: Malaysia's structural transformation from low to middle income is a success story, making it one of the most prominent manufacturing exporters' in the world. However, like many other middle income economies, it is squeezed by the competition from low-wage economies on the one hand, and more innovative advanced economies on the other. What can Malaysia do? Does Malaysia need a new growth strategy? This paper emphasizes the need for broad structural transformation; that is, moving to higher productivity production in both goods and services. This paper examines productivity growth for Malaysia at the sectoral level, and constructs several measures of the sophistication of goods and services trade, and puts these comparisons in a global context. The results indicate that Malaysia has further opportunities for growth in the services sector in particular. Modernizing the services sector may provide a way out of the middle income trap, and serve as a source of growth for Malaysia into the future
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6427
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  • 11
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    The Exceptional Persistence of India's Unorganized Sector (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz The Exceptional Persistence of India's Unorganized Sector
    Abstract: The transformation of India's unorganized sector is important to its modernization, growth, and attainment of regional economic equality. This paper documents several key facts about India's unorganized sector in manufacturing and services. First, the unorganized sector is large, accounting for more than 99 percent of establishments and 80 percent of employment in manufacturing. Second, the unorganized sector is stubbornly persistent-it accounted for 81 percent of manufacturing employment in 1989 and 2005. Third, this persistence is not due to particular subsets of industries or states, as most industries and states show limited change in unorganized sector employment shares. Fourth, the degree to which localized unorganized activity exists is important as it is associated with weaker production functions for manufacturing firms. Building from these facts, the paper investigates conditions promoting transformation by state-industry. Decomposition exercises find that both within and between adjustments for state-industries weakly reduce unorganized sector shares. The aggregate persistence instead comes from the covariance term, where fast-growing state-industries witness rising unorganized sector activity. Regressions quantify that growth in the organized sector by state-industry reduces the unorganized sector employment share, but only marginally reduces employment levels in unorganized activity. Analysis of the establishment size distribution highlights that entrepreneurship and larger organized sector plants are most important for transitions in the manufacturing sector, while small establishments play a key role in the services sector
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6454
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  • 12
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    Input Usage and Productivity in Indian Manufacturing Plants (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Input Usage and Productivity in Indian Manufacturing Plants
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the scale and productivity consequences of varied input use in Indian manufacturing using detailed plant-level data. Counts of distinct material inputs are higher in urban settings than in rural locations, unconditionally and conditional on plant size, and they are also higher in the organized sector than in the unorganized sector. At the district level, higher input usage in the organized sector is generally observed in wealthier districts and those with greater literacy rates. If looking within states, the usage is more closely associated with electricity access, population density, and closer spatial proximity to one of India's largest cities. Plants in the organized sector utilizing a greater variety of inputs display higher productivity, with the effects mostly concentrated among smaller plants with fewer than 50 employees. For the unorganized sector, there is little correlation of input counts and local conditions, for better or for worse, and a more modest link to productivity outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6656
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  • 13
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    The Golden Quadrilateral Highway Project and Urban/Rural Manufacturing in India (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz The Golden Quadrilateral Highway Project and Urban/Rural Manufacturing in India
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of the Golden Quadrilateral highway project on the urban and rural growth of Indian manufacturing. The Golden Quadrilateral project upgraded the quality and width of 5,846 km of roads in India. The study uses a difference-in-difference estimation strategy to compare non-nodal districts based on their distance from the highway system. For the organized portion of the manufacturing sector, the Golden Quadrilateral project led to improvements in both urban and rural areas of non-nodal districts located 0-10 km from the Golden Quadrilateral. These higher entry rates and increases in plant productivity are not present in districts 10-50 km away. The entry effects are stronger in rural areas of districts, but the differences between urban and rural areas are modest relative to the overall effect. The productivity consequences are similar in both locations. The most important difference appears to be the greater activation of urban areas near the nodal cities and rural areas in remote locations along the Golden Quadrilateral network. For the unorganized sector, no material effects are found from the Golden Quadrilateral upgrades in either setting. These findings suggest that in the time frames that we can consider-the first five to seven years during and after upgrades-the economic effects of major highway projects contribute modestly to the migration of the organized sector out of Indian cities, but are unrelated to the increased urbanization of the unorganized sector
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6620
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  • 14
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    The Rejuvenation of Industrial Policy (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Stiglitz, Joseph E The Rejuvenation of Industrial Policy
    Abstract: This essay is about an important area in which there has been major rethinking-industrial policy, by which the authors mean government policies directed at affecting the economic structure of the economy. The standard argument was that markets were efficient, so there was no need for government to intervene either in the allocation of resources across sectors or in the choices of technique. And even if markets were not efficient, governments were not likely to improve matters. But the 2008-2009 global financial crisis showed that markets were not necessarily efficient and, indeed, there was a broad consensus that without strong government intervention-which included providing lifelines to certain firms and certain industries-the market economies of the United States and Europe may have collapsed. Today, the relevance and pertinence of industrial policies are acknowledged by mainstream economists and political leaders from all sides of the ideological spectrum. But what exactly is industrial policy? Why has it raised so much controversy and confusion? What is the compelling new rationale that seems to bring mainstream economists to acknowledge the crucial importance of industrial policy and revisit some of the fundamental assumptions of economic theory and economic development? How can industrial policy be designed to avoid the pitfalls of some of the seeming past failures and to emulate some of the past successes? What are the contours of the emerging consensus and remaining issues and open questions? The paper addresses these questions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6628
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  • 15
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    Specialization, Diversity, and Indian Manufacturing Growth (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Specialization, Diversity, and Indian Manufacturing Growth
    Abstract: This paper examines the specialization and diversity of manufacturing industries within Indian districts. Prior to India's recent economic growth and liberalization, specialization levels in 1989 were substantially higher than similar metrics calculated for the United States. From 1989 to 2010, average specialization levels for Indian districts declined to a level that is now quite comparable to the United States. Diversity levels similarly increased. Specialization and diversity levels in India are becoming more persistent with time. Manufacturing plants display higher productivity in districts that display both properties. From 1989 to 2010, manufacturing employment growth was higher in districts that were more specialized at the start of the period
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6648
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  • 16
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    Can Political Empowerment Help Economic Empowerment? : Women Leaders and Female Labor Force Participation in India (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Can Political Empowerment Help Economic Empowerment?
    Abstract: This study examines whether political empowerment of women affects their economic participation. In the context of mandated political representation reform for women in India, the study finds that the length of exposure to women politicians affects overall female labor force participation. These effects seem to arise through direct and indirect channels: political representation of women directly affects hours of work assigned to women under the recent national public works program, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. In addition, the level of access to public goods, as influenced by exposure to women leaders over time, increases the likelihood of women being engaged in the labor force. The findings suggest that women's participation in politics could be a useful policy tool to increase both the supply of and the demand for labor market opportunities for women, potentially helping to stem India's declining female labor force participation rate
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6675
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  • 17
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    Explaining Africa's (Dis)advantage : The Curse of Party Monopoly (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (63 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Harrison, Ann E Explaining Africa's (Dis)advantage
    Abstract: Africa's economic performance has been widely viewed with pessimism. This paper uses firm-level data for 89 countries to examine formal firm performance. Without controls, manufacturing African firms do not perform much worse than firms in other regions. But they do have structural problems, exhibiting much lower export intensity and investment rates. Once the analysis controls for geography and the political and business environment, formal African firms robustly lead in sales growth, total factor productivity levels and productivity growth. Africa's conditional advantage is higher in low-tech than in high-tech manufacturing, and exists in manufacturing but not in services. While geography, infrastructure, and access to finance play an important role in explaining Africa's disadvantage in firm performance, the key factor is party monopoly. The longer a single political party remains in power, the lower are firm productivity levels, growth rates, and sales growth for manufacturing. In contrast, the business environment and firm characteristics (except for foreign investment) do not matter as much. The paper also finds evidence that the effects of the political and business environment are heterogeneous across sectors and firms of various levels of technology
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6316
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  • 18
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    Diasporas and Outsourcing : Evidence from oDesk and India (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Diasporas and Outsourcing
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of the Indian diaspora in the outsourcing of work to India. The data are taken from oDesk, the world's largest online platform for outsourced contracts. Despite oDesk minimizing many of the frictions that diaspora connections have traditionally overcome, diaspora connections still matter on oDesk, with ethnic Indians substantially more likely to choose a worker in India. This higher placement is the result of a greater likelihood of choosing India for the initial contract, due in large part to taste-based preferences, and substantial path dependence in location choices. The paper further examines wage and performance outcomes of outsourcing as a function of ethnic connections
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6403
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  • 19
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    Female Business Ownership and Informal Sector Persistence (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Female Business Ownership and Informal Sector Persistence
    Abstract: The informal sector in India has been exceptionally persistent over the past two decades. Is this a bad thing? Not necessarily. This paper shows that a substantial share of the persistence in India's unorganized manufacturing sector is due to the rapid increase in female-owned businesses. Had women's participation remained in the proportion to male-owned businesses that was evident in 1994, the unorganized manufacturing sector would have declined in share rather than increased. Most of these new female-owned businesses are opened in the household and at a small scale, about a third of the size of a typical male-owned business in the informal sector. Yet, it appears that these businesses offer economic opportunities not otherwise present and a transition for some women from unpaid domestic work
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6612
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  • 20
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    Learning from China's Rise to Escape the Middle-Income Trap : A New Structural Economics Approach to Latin America (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (63 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu Learning from China's Rise to Escape the Middle-Income Trap
    Abstract: This paper discusses the causes of the middle-income trap in Latin America and the Caribbean, identifies the challenges and opportunities for Latin America that come from China's rise, and draws lessons from New Structural Economics and the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework to help Latin America escape the middle-income trap. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are caught in a middle-income trap due to their inability to structurally upgrade from low value-added to high value-added products. Governments in Latin America and the Caribbean should intervene in industries in which they have a comparative advantage, calibrating supporting policies in close collaboration with the private sector through public-private sector alliances. Through continuous structural upgrading in sectors intensive in factors such as natural resources, scientific knowledge, and unskilled labor, the region could achieve dynamic growth. This would require investments in education, research and development, and physical infrastructure. Therefore, industrial upgrading and diversification would be essential to avoid further de-industrialization arising from the competitive pressures of the rise of China, broaden the base for economic growth, and create the basis for further sustained reduction in unemployment, poverty and income inequality. Failure to do so would lead to a loss of competitiveness and risks of further de-industrialization
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6165
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  • 21
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    Shifting Patterns of Economic Growth and Rethinking Development (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Justin Yifu Lin Shifting Patterns of Economic Growth and Rethinking Development
    Abstract: This paper provides an historical overview of both the evolution of the economic performance of the developing world and the evolution of economic thought on development policy. The 20th century was broadly characterized by divergence between high-income countries and the developing world, with only a limited number (less than 10 percent of the economies in the world) managing to progress out of lower or middle-income status to high-income status. The last decade witnessed a sharp reversal from a pattern of divergence to convergence-particularly for a set of large middle-income countries. The latter phenomenon was also driven by increasing economic ties among developing countries, and on the intellectual scale, increased knowledge generation and sharing among the developing countries. Re-thinking development policy implies confronting these realities: 20th century economic divergence, the experience of the handful of success stories, and the recent rise of the multi-polar growth world. The paper provides descriptive data and a literature survey to document these trends. The paper also provides a brief survey of the role of multilateral institutions-in particular, the World Bank-in this changing context and offers suggestions on how they can adapt their strategies to improve development outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6040
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  • 22
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    Reform of the International Monetary System : A Jagged History and Uncertain Prospects (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (62 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Justin Yifu Lin Reform of the International Monetary System
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the historical evolution of the international monetary system in the context of the rising role of developing countries in the world economy and the emerging multi-polar growth setting. It evaluates the stability of the current "non-system" and how the global economic context is likely to affect that stability in the coming years with potential adverse effects on both advanced and developing economies. Given the likely trend toward a multi-polar reserve currency system, the paper evaluates the stability of the emerging system, as well as the current proposals for reform of the international monetary system. The paper concludes that more ambitious reforms of the system may be needed to meaningfully reduce future global economic and financial instability
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6070
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  • 23
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    What Makes Cities More Competitive? : Spatial Determinants of Entrepreneurship in India (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz What Makes Cities More Competitive?
    Abstract: Policy makers in both developed and developing countries want to make cities more competitive, attract entreprepreneurs, boost economic growth, and promote job creation. The authors examine the spatial location of entrepreneurs in India in manufacturing and services sectors, as well as in the formal and informal sectors, in 630 districts spread across 35 states/union territories. They quantify entrepreneurship as young firms that are less than three years old, and define entry measures through employment in these new establishments. They develop metrics that unite the incumbent industrial structures of districts with the extent to which industries interact through the traditional agglomeration channels. The two most consistent factors that predict overall entrepreneurship for a district are its education and the quality of local physical infrastructure. These patterns are true for manufacturing and services. These relationships are much stronger in India than those found for the United States. The authors also find strong evidence of agglomeration economies in India's manufacturing sector. This influence is through both traditional Marshallian economies like a suitable labor force and proximity to customers and through the Chinitz effect that emphasizes small suppliers. India's footprints in structural transformation, urbanization, and manufacturing sector are still at an early stage. At such an early point and with industrial structures not yet entrenched, local policies and traits can have profound and lasting impacts by shaping where industries plant their roots
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6198
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  • 24
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    Demystifying China's Fiscal Stimulus (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fardoust, Shahrokh Demystifying China's Fiscal Stimulus
    Abstract: China's government economic stimulus package in 2008-09 appears to have worked well. It seems to have been about the right size, included a number of appropriate components, and was well timed. Its subnational component was designed to maximize the impact of the stimulus package on the economy and minimize the potential procyclical elements that are usually built into subnational fiscal mechanisms in federal countries. Moreover, China's massive fiscal stimulus played an important role in the overall recovery of the global economy. Using a simple analytical framework, this paper focuses on two key factors behind the success of the stimulus: investments in bottleneck-easing infrastructure projects and countercyclical nature of subnational spending based on the assumption that well-chosen infrastructure projects could improve business climate and thereby crowd in the private investment. The paper concludes that the expansionary subnational government spending played a key role in strengthening the overall impact of the stimulus and sustaining growth. It also highlights the importance of public investment quality and cautions about the sustainability of local government financing through the domestic banking system and increases in local governments off balance sheet or contingent liabilities. These lessons may be of particular relevance today for China, as well as other countries, in formulating policy response to another global economic slowdown or crisis, possibly as a result of the Eurozone turmoil. For China, investing in urban infrastructure and green economy, as well as in higher quality and better targeted social services, will be crucial for improving income inequality and inducing a more inclusive growth path
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6221
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  • 25
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    What Explains Big Gender Disparities in India? : Local Industrial Structures and Female Entrepreneurship (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz What Explains Big Gender Disparities in India?
    Abstract: Despite rapid economic growth, gender disparities in women's economic participation have remained deep and persistent in India. What explains these huge gender disparities? Is it poor infrastructure, limited education, and gender composition of the labor force and industries? Or is it deficiencies in social and business networks and a low share of incumbent female entrepreneurs? This paper analyzes the spatial determinants of female entrepreneurship in India in the manufacturing and services sectors. Good infrastructure and education predict higher female entry shares. There are strong agglomeration economies in both manufacturing and services, where higher female ownership among incumbent businesses within a district-industry predicts a greater share of subsequent entrepreneurs will be female. Moreover, higher female ownership of local businesses in related industries (similar labor needs, input-output markets) predicts greater relative female entry rates. Gender networks thus clearly matter for women's economic participation. However, there is a need to develop a better understanding of how gender networks influence aggregate efficiency. There is no doubt that gender empowerment can be the escalator to realizing human potential and for creating a robust platform for growth and job creation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6228
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 26
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    Is India's Manufacturing Sector Moving Away from Cities? (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Is India's Manufacturing Sector Moving Away from Cities?
    Abstract: This paper investigates the urbanization of the Indian manufacturing sector by combining enterprise data from formal and informal sectors. It finds that plants in the formal sector are moving away from urban and into rural locations, while the informal sector is moving from rural to urban locations. Although the secular trend for India's manufacturing urbanization has slowed down, the localized importance of education and infrastructure has not. The results suggest that districts with better education and infrastructure have experienced a faster pace of urbanization, although higher urban-rural cost ratios cause movement out of urban areas. This process is associated with improvements in the spatial allocation of plants across urban and rural locations. Spatial location of plants has implications for policy on investments in education, infrastructure, and the livability of cities. The high share of urbanization occurring in the informal sector suggests that urbanization policies that contain inclusionary approaches may be more successful in promoting local development and managing its strains than those focused only on the formal sector. Cities are evolving in India from places of goods production to forges of human capital and coping mechanisms for survival
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6271
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  • 27
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    The Unexpected Global Financial Crisis : Researching Its Root Cause (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (82 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu The Unexpected Global Financial Crisis
    Abstract: The world is currently still struggling with the aftermath of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Following a description of the eruption, evolution and consequences of the global crisis, this paper reviews alternative hypotheses for the causes of the global financial crisis as well as their empirical evidence. The paper refutes the frequently voiced view that the global crisis was caused by global imbalances that reflected economic policies of East Asian countries. Instead, it argues that global imbalances were the result of excess demand in the United States, resulting from both the public debt in the United States arising from the Afghanistan and Iraqi wars and tax cuts and the overconsumption by households supported by the wealth effect from the housing bubble in the United States. The housing bubble itself was the outcome of the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy in the aftermath of the burst of the "dot-com" bubble in 2001, the lack of appropriate financial regulation, and housing policies aimed at expanding the mortgage market to low-income borrowers. It was possible to maintain the large trade deficits of the United States for such a long period of time because of the dollar's reserve currency status. When the housing bubble in the United States burst, the global crisis ensued. The paper also analyzes why China's trade surplus increased significantly in general and with the United States in particular in recent years, and argues that this increase was caused by both the relocation of the labor-intensive tradable sector of East Asian economies to China and high corporate saving rates in China as a result of its dual-track approach to reform
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5937
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 28
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    Beyond Keynesianism : Global Infrastructure Investments in Times of Crisis (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu Beyond Keynesianism
    Abstract: As the world recovers only slowly from the 2008 financial crisis and Europe is facing a looming debt crisis, concerns have increased that the "new normal"-a period of high unemployment, low returns on investment, high risks, and low growth-may become protracted in advanced economies. If growth remains weak, unemployment rates and debt levels will be slow to recede. Consequently, the global recovery may continue to be fragile for years to come. What the world needs now is a growth-lifting strategy. This strategy could take the form of a global infrastructure initiative. Since debt levels are high, governments in the United States and Europe could increase demand and support growth through investments in bottleneck-releasing infrastructure projects that are self-financing. An infrastructure initiative should, however, go beyond the borders of advanced countries and include developing countries. Economic and social returns to infrastructure investments tend to be high in developing countries, which have become increasingly important drivers of global growth. At the same time, infrastructure investments require capital goods, most of which are produced in high-income countries. Scaling up infrastructure investment in developing countries could therefore help generate a virtuous cycle in support of a global recovery
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5940
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 29
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    Leading Dragons Phenomenon : New Opportunities for Catch-Up in Low-Income Countries (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (60 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Chandra, Vandana Leading Dragons Phenomenon
    Abstract: Modern economic development is accompanied by the structural transformation from an agrarian to an industrial economy and occurs through a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading. Since the 18th century, all countries that industrialized successfully in Europe, North America and East Asia followed their comparative advantage and leveraged the late-comer advantage to emulate the leader-follower flying geese pattern of industrial upgrading. The large dynamic emerging market countries such as China, India and Brazil are also engaged in industrial upgrading but with a critical difference. In particular, because of its sheer size, China has absorbed nearly all labor-intensive jobs and become the world?s largest exporter of labor-intensive products. The current view is that China?s dominance hinders poor countries from developing similar industries. The authors argue that industrial upgrading has increased wages and is causing China to graduate from labor-intensive to more capital- and technology-intensive industries. These industries will shed labor and create a huge opportunity for lower wage countries to start a phase of labor-intensive industrialization. This process, called the Leading Dragon Phenomenon, offers an unprecedented opportunity to low-income Sub-Saharan Africa where the industrial sector is underdeveloped and investment capital and entrepreneurial skills are leading constraints to manufacturing. It can seize the opportunity and resolve the constraints by attracting some of the OFDI flowing currently from China, India and Brazil into the manufacturing sectors of other developing countries. All low-income countries will compete but to catch the jobs spillover from China, the winner must implement credible economic development strategies that are consistent with its comparative advantage
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6000
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  • 30
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    The Spatial Development of India (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Klaus Desmet The Spatial Development of India
    Abstract: In the last two decades the Indian economy has been growing unabatedly, with memories of the Hindu rate of growth rapidly fading. But this unprecedented growth has also resulted in widening spatial disparities. While cities such as Hyderabad have emerged as major clusters of high development, many rural areas have been left behind with little development benefits accruing to them. India's mega-cities have continued to grow. This situation raises a number of important policy questions. Should India aim to spread development more equally across space? Are India's cities becoming too large? Should the government invest in infrastructure in the large cities to reduce congestion or in medium-sized locations to facilitate the emergence of new economic clusters? What are the tradeoffs between agglomeration economies and congestion costs? How different is Indias experience compared with China and USA?
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6060
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  • 31
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    The Crisis in the Euro Zone : Did the Euro Contribute to the Evolution of the Crisis? (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Justin Yifu Lin The Crisis in the Euro Zone
    Abstract: The simmering sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Zone represents a looming threat to the recovery of the world economy and could lead to a renewed global financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the root causes of the crisis in Europe and assess the extent to which it was driven by the global financial crisis and by factors internal to Europe, notably the adoption of the common currency. Adoption of the euro led to convergence of interest rates in periphery countries to the levels in core countries and, in combination with rising capital inflows owing to greater financial integration, set off a consumption and real estate boom in periphery countries, leading to higher growth and increases in government revenue and spending. The resulting real appreciation led to a loss of competitiveness in periphery countries, adversely affecting export performance and causing rising current account imbalances. While the fiscal position remained manageable before the crisis owing to rising revenue, the recession brought about by the global financial crisis led to the burst of real estate bubbles and a financial sector crisis and to sharply increased budget deficits and worsened debt indicators and triggered the sovereign debt crisis. Core countries, in particular Germany, maintained a competitive edge through wage restraint allowing them to increase exports to periphery countries, while their banks profited from increased lending to non-core countries. In sum, the euro exacerbated intra-European imbalances whose unsustainability became evident in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and triggered the current sovereign debt crisis
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6127
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  • 32
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    Applying the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework : The Case of Nigeria (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu Applying the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework
    Abstract: This paper applies the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework developed by Lin and Monga (2010) to Nigeria. It identifies as appropriate comparator countries China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, and selects a wide range of industries in which these comparator countries may be losing their comparative advantage and which may therefore lend themselves to targeted interventions of the government to fast-track growth. These industries include food processing, light manufacturing, suitcases, shoes, car parts, and petrochemicals. The paper also discusses binding constraints to growth in each of these value chains as well as mechanisms through which governance-related issues in the implementation of industrial policy could be addressed
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5776
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  • 33
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    From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons
    Abstract: Economic development is a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which any country, regardless of its level of development, can succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with its comparative advantage, determined by its endowment structure. The secret winning formula for developing countries is to exploit the latecomer advantage by building up industries that are growing dynamically in more advanced fast growing countries that have endowment structures similar to theirs. By following carefully selected lead countries, latecomers can emulate the leader-follower, flying-geese pattern that has served well successfully catching-up economies since the 18th century. The emergence of large middle-income countries such as China, India, and Brazil as new growth poles in the world, and their dynamic growth and climbing of the industrial ladder, offer an unprecedented opportunity to all developing economies with income levels currently below theirs-including those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Having itself been a "follower goose," China is on the verge of graduating from low-skilled manufacturing jobs and becoming a "leading dragon." That will free up nearly 100 million labor-intensive manufacturing jobs, enough to more than quadruple manufacturing employment in low-income countries. A similar trend is emerging in other middle-income growth poles. The lower-income countries that can formulate and implement a viable strategy to capture this new industrialization opportunity will set forth on a dynamic path of structural change that can lead to poverty reduction and prosperity
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5702
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  • 34
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    Marshallian Externality, Industrial Upgrading, and Industrial Policies (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ju, Jiandong Marshallian Externality, Industrial Upgrading, and Industrial Policies
    Abstract: A growth model with multiple industries is developed to study how industries evolve as capital accumulates endogenously when each industry exhibits Marshallian externality (increasing returns to scale) and to explain why industrial policies sometimes succeed but sometimes fail. The authors show that, in the long run, the laissez-faire market equilibrium is Pareto optimal when the time discount rate is sufficiently small or sufficiently large. When the time discount rate is moderate, there exist multiple dynamic market equilibria with diverse patterns of industrial development. To achieve Pareto efficiency, it would require the government to identify the industry target consistent with the comparative advantage and to coordinate in a timely manner, possibly for multiple times. However, industrial policies may make people worse off than in the market equilibrium if the government picks an industry that deviates from the comparative advantage of the economy
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5796
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 35
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    The financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin , Justin Yifu The financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture
    Abstract: The financial crisis arose in the industrial countries, but has affected developing countries through higher interest rates, sharp changes in commodity prices, and reductions in investment, trade, migration and remittances. For most low-income countries, shocks that affect food prices or wage rates for unskilled workers seem likely to have the largest impact on poverty, with the declines in key food prices associated with the crisis helping to reduce poverty, while declining trade, investment, and remittance flows have had adverse impacts on the poor. Policies to address the crisis must include measures to deal with financial sector problems, the resulting reductions in aggregate demand, and the particular vulnerabilities of poor people. Given the complexity of the impacts from financial crises and commodity price shocks, there is a strong case for developing better social safety net policies that can offset the adverse impacts of a wide range of different shocks on poor people without creating costly market distortions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5431
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    New Structural Economics : A Framework for Rethinking Development (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu New Structural Economics
    Abstract: As strategies for achieving sustainable growth in developing countries are re-examined in light of the financial crisis, it is critical to take into account structural change and its corollary, industrial upgrading. Economic literature has devoted a great deal of attention to the analysis of technological innovation, but not enough to these equally important issues. The new structural economics outlined in this paper suggests a framework to complement previous approaches in the search for sustainable growth strategies. It takes the following into consideration: First, an economy's structure of factor endowments evolves from one stage of development to another. Therefore, the optimal industrial structure of a given economy will be different at different stages of development. Each industrial structure requires corresponding infrastructure (both "hard" and "soft") to facilitate its operations and transactions. Second, each stage of economic development is a point along the continuum from a low-income agrarian economy to a high-income industrialized economy, not a dichotomy of two economic development stages ("poor" versus "rich" or "developing" versus "industrialized"). Industrial upgrading and infrastructure improvement targets in developing countries should not necessarily draw from those that exist in high-income countries. Third, at each given stage of development, the market is the basic mechanism for effective resource allocation. However, economic development as a dynamic process requires industrial upgrading and corresponding improvements in "hard" and "soft" infrastructure at each stage. Such upgrading entails large externalities to firms' transaction costs and returns to capital investment. Thus, in addition to an effective market mechanism, the government should play an active role in facilitating industrial upgrading and infrastructure improvements
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5197
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    Growth Identification and Facilitation : The Role of the State in the Dynamics of Structural Change (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lin, Justin Yifu Growth Identification and Facilitation
    Abstract: Active economic policies by developing countries’ governments to promote growth and industrialization have generally been viewed with suspicion by economists, and for good reasons: past experiences show that such policies have too often failed to achieve their stated objectives. But the historical record also indicates that in all successful economies, the state has always played an important role in facilitating structural change and helping the private sector sustain it across time. This paper proposes a new approach to help policymakers in developing countries identify those industries that may hold latent comparative advantage. It also recommends ways of removing binding constraints to facilitate private firms’ entry into those industries. The paper introduces an important distinction between two types of government interventions. First are policies that facilitate structural change by overcoming information and coordination and externality issues, which are intrinsic to industrial upgrading and diversification. Such interventions aim to provide information, compensate for externalities, and coordinate improvements in the "hard" and "soft" infrastructure that are needed for the private sector to grow in sync with the dynamic change in the economy’s comparative advantage. Second are those policies aimed at protecting some selected firms and industries that defy the comparative advantage determined by the existing endowment structure-either in new sectors that are too advanced or in old sectors that have lost comparative advantage
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5313
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  • 38
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    The Growth Report and New Structural Economics (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Monga, Celestin The Growth Report and New Structural Economics
    Abstract: Despite its heavy human, financial, and economic cost, the recent global recession provides a unique opportunity to reflect on the knowledge from several decades of growth research, draw policy lessons from the experience of successful countries, and explore new approaches going forward. In an increasingly globalized world where fighting poverty is not only a moral responsibility but also a strategy for confronting some of the major problems (diseases, malnutrition, insecurity and violence) that ignore boundaries and contribute to global insecurity, thinking about new ways of generating and sustaining growth is a crucial task for economists. This paper reassesses the evolution of knowledge on growth and suggests a new structural approach to the analysis. It offers a brief, critical review of lessons learned from growth research and examines the remaining challenges - especially from the policy standpoint. It highlights how the 2008 Growth Commission Report identifies the stylized facts associated with sustained and inclusive growth. And it explains how the new structural economics provides a consistent framework for understanding the key findings of the Report
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5336
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