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  • Ensmenger, Nathan  (3)
  • Gardner, Dan  (3)
  • Sozialer Wandel  (6)
  • Good Judgement Project  (1)
  • Informatik  (6)
Datenlieferant
Materialart
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Fachgebiete(RVK)
  • 1
    Buch
    Buch
    Frankfurt am Main : S. Fischer
    ISBN: 9783100800244 , 3100800249
    Sprache: Deutsch
    Seiten: 336 Seiten , Illustrationen, Diagramme , 22 cm
    Originaltitel: Superforecasting
    DDC: 303.49
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    Schlagwort(e): Wirtschaftsentwicklung ; Entscheidungsunterstützung ; Prognose ; Sozialer Wandel ; Big Data ; Brier-Wert ; Daniel Kahneman ; Denkweise ; Fermisierung ; Geheimdienste ; Good Judgement Project ; IARPA ; Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity ; Metakognition ; Muster-Erkennung ; Prognose-Turniere ; Prognose-Wettbewerb ; Psychologie ; Rolf Dobelli ; Wahrscheinlichkeit ; Wirtschafts-Prognose ; Zufall ; Prognose ; Entscheidungsunterstützung ; Sozialer Wandel ; Wirtschaftsentwicklung ; Prognose
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    ISBN: 9781847947154
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 340 Seiten , Diagramme
    DDC: 303.49
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    Schlagwort(e): Wirtschaft ; BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting ; SOCIAL SCIENCE / Future Studies ; PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology ; Economic forecasting ; Forecasting ; Sozialer Wandel ; Wirtschaftsentwicklung ; Prognose ; Entscheidungsunterstützung ; Prognose ; Entscheidungsunterstützung ; Sozialer Wandel ; Wirtschaftsentwicklung ; Prognose
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  • 3
    ISBN: 9780804136693
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 340 Seiten , Illustrationen , 25 cm
    Ausgabe: First edition
    Paralleltitel: Übersetzt als Tetlock, Philip E., 1954 - Superforecasting
    DDC: 303.49
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    Schlagwort(e): Economic forecasting ; Forecasting ; Sozialer Wandel ; Wirtschaftsentwicklung ; Prognose
    Kurzfassung: "From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
    Anmerkung: Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 291-328
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  • 4
    ISBN: 9780262517966 , 9780262050937 , 0262517965
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: X, 320 S. , graph. Darst.
    Serie: History of computing
    DDC: 005.1
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    Schlagwort(e): Geschichte 1950-1975 ; Informationstechnik ; Programmierer ; Soziale Rolle ; Sozialer Wandel
    Anmerkung: Literaturverz. S. 287-314
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  • 5
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Cambridge : The MIT Press | [Ann Arbor, Michigan] : [ProQuest]
    ISBN: 9780262289351
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (331 pages)
    Serie: History of Computing
    DDC: 005.1
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    Schlagwort(e): Geschichte 1950-1975 ; Informationstechnik ; Programmierer ; Soziale Rolle ; Sozialer Wandel
    Kurzfassung: The contentious history of the computer programmers who developed the software that made the computer revolution possible.
    Anmerkung: Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources
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  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press | Cambridge, Massachusetts : MIT Press
    ISBN: 9780262289351
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 online resource (x, 320 pages) , illustrations
    Serie: History of computing
    DDC: 005.1
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    Schlagwort(e): Geschichte 1950-1975 ; Informationstechnik ; Programmierer ; Soziale Rolle ; Sozialer Wandel
    Kurzfassung: "This book provides the most holistic approach to the history of the development of programming and computer systems so far written. By embedding this history in a sociological and political context, Ensmenger has added hugely to our understanding of how the world of computing and its work practices came to be." Martin Campbell-Kelly, Professor of Computer Science, Warwick University.
    Kurzfassung: "The Computer Boys Take Over shows how computer programmers struggled for professional legitimacy and organizational recognition from the early days of ENIAC through the $300 billion Y2K crisis. Ensmenger's descriptions of ̀computer science' and ̀software engineering, ' as well as his portraits of Maurice Wilkes, Alan Turing, John Backus, Edsger Dijkstra, Fred Brooks, and other pioneers, give a compelling introduction to the field." Thomas J. Misa, Director of the Charles Babbage Institute, University of Minnesota.
    Kurzfassung: "The Computer Boys Take Over rewrites the history of computing by recounting the development of software in terms of labor, gender, and professionalization. Ensmenger meets the long-standing challenge to reform computer history by employing themes of vital interest to the general history of science and technology." Ronald Kline, Bovay Professor in History and Ethics of Engineering, Cornell University.
    Kurzfassung: Like all great social and technological developments, the "computer revolution" of the twentieth century didn't just happen. People-not impersonal processes-made it happen. In The Computer Boys Take Over, Nathan Ensmenger describes the emergence of the technical specialists-computer programmers, systems analysts, and data processing managers-who helped transform the electronic digital computer from a scientific curiosity into the most powerful and ubiquitous technology of the modern era. They did so not as inventors from the traditional mold, but as the developers of the "software" (broadly defined to include programs, procedures, and practices) that integrated the novel technology of electronic computing into existing social, political, and technological networks. As mediators between the technical system (the computer) and its social environment (existing structures and practices), these specialists became a focus for opposition to the use of new information technologies. To many of their contemporaries, it seemed the "computer boys" were taking over, not just in the corporate setting, but also in government, politics, and society in general.
    Kurzfassung: Ensmenger follows the rise of the computer boys as they struggled to establish a role for themselves within traditional organizational, professional, and academic hierarchies. He describes the tensions that emerged between the craft-centered practices of vocational programmers, the increasingly theoretical agenda of academic computer science, and the desire of corporate managers to control and routinize the process of software development. In doing so, he provides a human perspective on what is too often treated as a purely technological phenomenon. --Book Jacket.
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