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  • Blundell-Wignall, Adrian  (25)
  • Wehinger, Gert  (16)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (40)
  • Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press
  • Finance and Investment  (40)
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  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (40)
  • Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press
  • Paris : OECD  (1)
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD working papers on international investment 2017, 01
    Series Statement: OECD working papers on international investment
    Keywords: corrumption ; institutions ; law ; foreign direct investment ; Finance and Investment ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper estimates a dynamic foreign direct investment (FDI) gravity model to explore the impact of corruption in general and the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention in particular. The evidence from previous studies in both domains is mixed, probably due to econometric inconsistencies and misuse of data. The more robust findings are that corruption has an insignificant or even positive effect on FDI in the general population. However, adherence to the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention has a clear negative impact on FDI—countries that adhere reduce investments in corrupt destinations.
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Observer
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (4 p.)
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Observer
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD working papers on finance, insurance and private pensions no. 41
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Greece ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Despite Greece’s long history as a trading nation, the country is failing to live up to its export potential. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) could significantly contribute to strengthening Greece’s export performance, thereby helping to jump-start economic growth and job creation as well as improving the sustainability of fiscal and external accounts. This paper explores aspects of the business, financial and regulatory environment that impede the greater involvement of SMEs in export activity. The paper also discusses the potential role of a development bank and stresses the importance of more R&D and innovation, the need to develop venture and other equity capital financing, and the need to build stronger links and networks between universities and industry. It draws some policy conclusions and suggests policy measures in the areas of finance, regulation, R&D and innovation.
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2015, no. 2, p. 7-27 | volume:2015 | year:2015 | number:2 | pages:7-27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (21 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2015, no. 2, p. 7-27
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-27
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Earlier OECD research has shown that capital flow management measures (CFMs) that are used as macro-prudential measures (MPMs), including currency-based restrictions applied to banks’ operations also with non-residents, have the intended negative impact on capital account openness as measured by covered interest parity indicators. But what is their impact as macro-prudential tools to improve resilience to financial stability risks? This paper refers to the Bruno and Shin (2013) study that suggests that currency-based restrictions act as an effective macro-prudential buffer by reducing the sensitivity in emerging economies of cross-border bank lending to global credit cycles as measured by the volatility index VIX. The specific restrictions considered by the Bruno and Shin study are defined as CFMs and MPMs by both the IMF and the OECD. The paper shows that this result is mitigated when using updated data and testing the same hypotheses for more countries. Therefore further research is needed before concluding on the effectiveness of CFMs used as MPMs. On the other hand, the paper does find that CFMs, including currency-based measures, play a role in managing the domestic credit implications of those central banks engaged in foreign exchange interventions. The paper suggests that countries concerned with financial stability risks that may arise from global credit push factors, while wishing to avoid price distortions caused by CFMs, could use Basel III-consistent liquidity coverage ratios and net stable funding ratios as alternatives to CFMs; they also have the advantage of not having raised objections between governments so far regarding international commitments to exchange rate flexibility and cross-border openness, including the OECD Code of Liberalisation of Capital Movements.
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  • 5
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 49-84 | volume:2015 | year:2015 | number:1 | pages:49-84
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 49-84
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:49-84
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This article on public equity financing for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) complements earlier OECD work on market-based finance for SMEs. The development of this market segment could promote investment in SMEs and, together with securitisation and other non-bank debt financing instruments, encourage an enhanced allocation of risk and risk taking, and thus support growth. Despite the benefits of public SME equity, its share is small and an equity gap exists for risk financing more generally. A number of important impediments to the wider use of public equities for SMEs are identified, such as admission cost and listing requirements, lack of liquidity, educational gaps, limited ecosystems, and tax treatment, all of which require attention by regulators and policy makers alike.
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  • 6
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 7-45 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:2 | pages:7-45
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 7-45
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-45
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics
    Abstract: This paper uses data drawn from 10 000 global companies in 75 advanced and emerging countries to look at trends in infrastructure and other non-financial industries in light of the talk of stagnation. There appears to be a twin paradox in the global economy: some companies and industries are possibly over-investing, driving down returns on equity (ROEs) versus the cost of capital and creating margin pressure globally, while others carry out too little long-term investment in favour of buybacks and the accumulation of cash. This pattern is associated with a shift in the centre of gravity of world economic activity towards emerging markets. Most of the over-investment appears to be occurring in the extremely strong growth of emerging market sales and investment in non-infrastructure companies, much of which is being financed from rapidly growing debt since the financial crisis. Global value chains, emerging market policies of financial repression, low interest rates, taxation incentives, natural resource endowments and other factors determine where investment is stronger and where it is restrained. Potential problems of debt-financed over-investment in non-infrastructure industries in emerging markets and the incentives for buybacks are identified as major policy issues that need to be addressed if sustainable growth is to be achieved. Evidence on the role of causal factors (sales, GDP, the return on equity, the cost of equity and debt and a measure of financial openness) on corporate capital spending is presented. Finally some policy recommendations are made. JEL classification: F21, G15, G18, G23 Keywords: Global economy, infrastructure, investment, listed companies
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  • 7
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 89-190 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:2 | pages:89-190
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (102 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 89-190
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:89-190
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics
    Abstract: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are key contributors to economic growth and job creation. The current economic and financial crisis has reduced bank lending and has affected SMEs in particular. Capital markets will have to play a bigger role in financing SMEs in order to make them more resilient to financial shocks. This article reviews the spectrum of alternative market-based debt instruments for SME financing. It focuses on securitisation and covered bonds and also addresses issues regarding small/mid-cap bonds and private placements. It reviews the current state of the market for these instruments and identifies associated risks; analyses the barriers for issuers and investors alike; and provides best practices and high level recommendations to help alleviate barriers without hampering the overall stability of the system. JEL classification: G1, G2, G23, G28 Keywords: SME finance, SME securitisation, non-bank finance, (high-quality) securitisation, asset-backed securities (ABS), SME CLO (collateralised loan obligation), (covered) bonds, private placements, financial regulation, European DataWarehouse, Prime Collateralised Securities (PCS) initiative
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  • 8
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:99-121
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:99-121
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the 1980s OECD investment-saving correlations – as an inverse measure of economic openness – indicate a very wide disparity of openness between the OECD and emerging market economies (EMEs) with an absence of open markets in the latter. Given the increasing weight of EMEs in the world economy this pattern of growth with disparity of openness is ultimately unsustainable. This approach to development is not in the interests of EMEs in the post-crisis global environment. Various studies show how the absence of capital mobility inhibits development though private sector capital expenditure at the firm level. This paper generalises those findings in a panel study, showing that in the period since 2008 the increased presence of capital controls is associated with highly significant negative effects on business investment. It suggests that the world economy could be entering a more dangerous phase of potential instability that is not in the interests of either the advanced or the emerging world. There is scope for better policies to encourage more openness; the OECD Codes of Liberalisation could be an effective tool for managing the reform process.
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  • 9
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 139-162 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:139-162
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 139-162
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:139-162
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Reducing bank dependence in financing small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are key contributors to economic growth and job creation should help making them more resilient to financial shocks. Various non-bank debt financing alternatives are available and were the focus of a Roundtable discussion that this article draws on. Revitalising securitisation, tarnished during the crisis, is important, by making it safer, simpler and more transparent, and perhaps also by offering some (initial) government and regulatory support. Similarly, covered bonds can be attractive instruments for SME finance. For mid-sized companies, bond issuance and private placements may also provide useful alternatives. All these instruments can and should be tailored to fit the investors’ needs. There is no “silver bullet” for SME finance which is exceptionally complex due to the diversity of SMEs themselves. Data transparency, standardisation, regulatory support and raising awareness about available financing options should be among the issues to be addressed. JEL classification: G1, G2, G23, G28 Keywords: SME finance, non-bank finance, (high-quality) securitisation, asset-backed securities (ABS), SME CLO (collateralised loan obligation), (covered) bonds, private placements, European DataWarehouse, Prime Collateralised Securities (PCS) initiative.
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  • 10
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 115-148 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:115-148
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 115-148
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:115-148
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: After a brief overview of current financing difficulties for SMEs and policy measures to support SME lending during the crisis,this article presents a literature review related to difficulties in SME’s access to finance during the crisis, against a background of a sharp decline in bank profitability and an erosion of bank capital that negatively affected lending. The articles reviewed are classified according to four main issues of interest:the impairment of the bank-credit channel and its economic effects;factors potentially attenuating the effect of a financial squeeze;the role of global banking in mitigating but also transmitting financial shocks; and,looking ahead,issues related to so-called “credit-less recoveries” that should be relevant in guiding policy makers in the current environment of financial deleveraging. All the results hold important implications for policy making given the bail-outs and the large injections ofliquidity by central banks during the crisis.
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  • 11
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:7-28
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-28
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper explores the issue of macro-prudential policies in the light of empirical evidence on the determinants of bank systemic risk, and the effectiveness of capital controls. In many ways this reflects a step back in time towards sector approaches to monetary policy that were so prevalent in the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s. Complexity and interdependence is such that proposals on these issues should be treated with care until much more is understood about the issue. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01. Keywords: Macro-prudential policies, capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis.
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  • 12
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:43-68
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:43-68
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money: excess leverage and default pressure resulting from contagion and counterparty risk. This paper looks at whether the Basel III agreement addresses these issues effectively. Basel III has some very useful elements, notably a (much too light “back-up”) leverage ratio, a capital buffer, a proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses and liquidity and stable funding ratios. However, the paper shows that Basel risk weighting and the use of internal bank models for determining them leads to systematic regulatory arbitrage that undermines its effectiveness. Empirical evidence about the determinants of the riskiness of a bank (measured in this study by the Distance-to-Default) shows that a simple leverage ratio vastly outperforms the Basel Tier 1 ratio. Furthermore, business model features (after controlling for macro factors) have a huge impact. Derivatives origination, prime broking, etc., carry vastly different risks to core deposit banking. Where such differences are present, it makes little sense to have a one-size-fits-all approach to capital rules. Capital rules make more sense when fundamentally different businesses are separated. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, Basel III, derivatives, bank business models, distance-todefault, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
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  • 13
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:29-42
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:29-42
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The results of an IMF study on controls on capital inflows in emerging economies, using a probit regression approach, are first replicated and tested for stability. The IMF results, downplayed by the authors, have been used by others to suggest controls can be helpful in a crisis situation. However, the stability findings suggest the results are not sufficiently robust to make strong claims in this regard. The same 37 countries and the IMF capital control measures are then used in a panel regression study to examine the impact of capital inflows on annual real GDP growth around the Global Financial Crisis. The results between the pre-crisis and the crisis periods are inconsistent with the IMF study – finding that capital restrictions on inflows (particularly debt liabilities) are most useful in good times when inflows to emerging markets are strong and upward pressure on managed exchange rates and reserves accumulation is greatest. However, lower controls on bonds and on FDI inflows seem to be associated with better growth outcomes during the crisis period studied. These findings are more consistent with studies that see capital controls as part of exchange rate targeting policies and concerns about excess reserves accumulation. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01 Keywords: Capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis
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  • 14
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:69-91
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:69-91
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money while gains were privatised and losses socialised. It is shown that banks need little capital in calm periods, but in a crisis they need too much – there is no reasonable ex-ante capital rule for large systemically important financial institutions that will make them safe. The bank regulators paradox is that large complex and interconnected banks need very little capital in the good times, but they can never have enough in an extreme crisis. Separation is required to deal with this problem, which derives mainly from counterparty risk. The study suggests banks should be considered for separation into a ring-fenced non-operating holding company (NOHC) structure with ring-fencing when they pass a key allowable threshold for the gross market value (GMV) of derivatives, a case which is reinforced if the bank has high wholesale funding and low levels of liquid trading assets. The pricing of derivatives and repos would become more commensurate with the risks if the NOHC proposal were to be pursued as a unifying strategy for the different national approaches. Most of the objections to this structure are summarised and rebutted. Other national proposals for separation in Switzerland, the Volcker rule, the Vickers rule, and the Liikanen proposal are argued to be inferior to the ring-fenced NOHC proposal, on the grounds that empirical evidence about what matters for a safe business model is not taken properly into account. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, derivatives, bank business models, distance-to-default, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
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  • 15
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:7-30
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-30
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Banks are still dealing with historic losses buried in their balance sheets. As a result, the US economy is picking up only modestly and Europe is sinking further into recession, despite unprecedented low interest rates and policies to compress the term premium. The aim of this study is to explore the business activities of banks, with a special focus on their lending behaviour, and its responsiveness to unconventional monetary policy. The paper shows that deleveraging has been mainly via mark-to-market assets falling in value, and policy is now serving to reflate these assets without a strong impact on lending. A panel regression study shows that GSIFI banks are least responsive to policy. Non-GSIFI banks respond to the lending rate spread to cash rates, the spread between lending rates and the alternative investment in government bonds, and the distance-to-default (the banks solvency). The paper shows that better lending in the USA is a result of safer banks and a better spread to government bonds – yields on the latter are too attractive relative to lending rates in Europe. Finally, the paper comments on the problem of using cyclical tools to address structural problems in banks, and suggests which alternative policies would better facilitate a financial system more aligned with lending, trust and stability and less towards high-risk activities and leverage via complex products. JEL Classification: E50, E51, E52, E58, G20, G21, G24, G28. Keywords: Bank Lending, Bank business model, deleveraging, structural policy, unconventional monetary policy, distance to default, spreads, bank separation, GSIFI.
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  • 16
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:39-52
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:39-52
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper argues that interest rates are at extremely low levels to support banks, and the search for yield has pushed the liquidity driven speculative bubble from real estate, derivatives and structured products markets into the corporate debt market. Equities have rallied strongly too. This asset cycle is certainly helping banks reduce hidden losses on illiquid securities and could also help reduce the cost of equity. But for this to occur at current bond yields would require an unrealistic bubble in equities. Markets are assuming that this transition from low to higher rates (more in line with nominal GDP) can be handled smoothly by policy makers, when in fact this may not be so. Extreme volatility would risk new financial fragility problems. The paper presents a panel model using more than 4 000 global companies and shows that the Capex decision in general depend on the cost of equity, the accelerator and uncertainty, whereas buybacks are driven mainly by the gap between the cost of equity and debt. Right now the incentive structure implied by very low interest rates, which may be sustained for a long time, together with tax incentives, works directly against longterm investment. Debt finance is cheap, while the cost of equity capital needed for risky long-term investment is still high. This combination provides a direct incentive for borrowing to carry out buybacks (de-equitisation). Noting that weak investment reduces potential GDP, the paper makes some policy suggestions. JEL Classification: G15, G32, G28, E52. Keywords: Long-term investment, interest rates, de-equitisation, cost of capital, dividend and buybacks, monetary policy.
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  • 17
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 79-88 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:2 | pages:79-88
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (10 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 79-88
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:79-88
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The current crisis with its on-going banking sector problems has brought to the fore various cases of financial fraud and banking scandals that have additionally undermined the already low confidence in the sector. This has raised concerns about structural flaws in the way banks operate and are being regulated and supervised. Restoring investor confidence may require new approaches to redesign the incentives, rules and regulations for the financial sector. This was the backdrop for the discussions at the October 2012 OECD Financial Roundtable that this article summarises. Topics covered the current outlook and risks for banks as well as banking business models, ethics and approaches towards risks. Participants pointed out that, while downsizing and adjusting their business models, banks had already made improvements in their risk management. At the same time, the now observed renationalisation of assets could worsen the situation particularly in the European periphery. This could be attenuated by a European Banking Union that would also help to break the detrimental link between banks and sovereigns. As banks are deleveraging, non-banks are substituting for part of the reduced bank lending, but to do so would need regulatory support – while the shadow banking sector more generally will come under closer regulatory and supervisory scrutiny. Consumer groups in particular regard financial consumer protection as important to help improve the social value of financial activities that had often been unproductive, if not destructive. Bank representatives opposed regulatory separation of bank business on the grounds that it is insufficient to address problems of risk taking and control. Finally, it was pointed out that regulatory reforms need to be targeted and harness market forces by balancing penalties and rewards. Governance of regulation should also be enhanced, and regulation should be proactive and be complemented by strong macro and micro-supervision. Co-ordinating reforms should ensure a level playing field, but a one-size-fits-all approach should be avoided.
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  • 18
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:2 | pages:7-34
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-34
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This study models the distance-to-default (DTD) of a large sample of banks with the aim of shedding light on policy and regulatory issues. The determinants of the distance-to-default in a panel sample of 94 banks over the period 2004 to 2011, controlling for the market beta of each bank, includes house prices, relative size, simple leverage, derivatives gross market value of exposure, trading assets, wholesale funding and cross-border revenue. The Basel Tier 1 ratio finds no support as a predictor of default risk. The un-weighted leverage ratio, on the other hand, finds strong support. At the macro level house prices are a powerful predictor of the DTD. At the business model level, the results appear to be consistent with an approach to policy that focuses on the apparent importance of the “size-derivativesleverage- wholesale funding nexus” in influencing the DTD of banks. While these results are preliminary, it is encouraging that the out-of-sample predictive power of the model improves systematically as each year of new observations is added. The results are also consistent with some central bank involvement in the supervision process, given the importance of the asset price cycle, identified in this study.
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  • 19
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 7-44 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:1 | pages:7-44
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 7-44
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-44
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the crisis, even with massive support from governments and central banks, widespread regulatory changes and promises from bank executives to improve the governance of risk, the world continues to see failures of Globally Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs, like Dexia), and huge losses (most recently from JP Morgan). Banks refuse to lend to each other, the central banks have become the interbank market and ‘bad deleveraging’ bears down on the economy forcing job losses in small- and medium-sized companies. ‘Good deleveraging’ occurs via building capital, and in this respect the US approach to dealing with the crisis provides something of a lesson that policy makers in Europe should take note of. With respect to regulations, the paper shows that capital and liquidity rules create a bias against lending to the enterprise sector (that drives jobs and economic growth). With respect to G-SIFIs, the paper shows how movements in their balance sheets are dominated by derivatives, the exposure to which varies with the cycle in risk. Netting of derivatives provides no protection against market risk, and the collateral and margin calls associated with these swings is both pro-cyclical and dangerous. The paper argues the OECD case that the best way to deal with all of these issues – both materially reducing the risk that arises from too-big-to fail while encouraging well-capitalised retail banks get on with the job of lending to create jobs – is to separate retail banking from securities business and ensure the former is (particularly in Europe) well capitalised. In this respect the paper argues that the non-operating holding company approach with ring-fenced subsidiaries (close to the Vickers proposal in the UK) is perhaps a better model than the US Volcker rule.
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  • 20
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 225-249 | volume:2011 | year:2011 | number:2 | pages:225-249
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (25 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 225-249
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:225-249
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The financial market outlook and risks as well as the impact of regulatory reforms on the financial sector were the topics discussed at the October 2011 OECD Financial Roundtable. Concerns about the current situation in financial markets were centred on the sovereign debt and banking crisis in Europe and its repercussions in other parts of the world. Many participants felt that policy makers had not been doing enough to address the crisis and that bold action and ‘circuit breakers’ to stop the negative feedback loops were needed to restore market confidence. Regarding regulation, while the financial industry broadly expressed support for Basel III reforms, some elements like the SIFI surcharge were criticised. The industry was also sceptical regarding the benefits of separation of banks’ businesses (Volcker rule, Vickers proposal) and broadly rejected the EU proposal of a financial transaction tax. While policy makers regarded some of the industry’s regulatory concerns as valid, they stressed the aim of regulatory reforms to make the financial sector safer, thus making downsizing of a certain kind of financial intermediation unavoidable. But the right balance needs to be found in terms of the extent and the timing of regulatory reforms; downsizing in the current situation should perhaps be encouraged less quickly in some cases.
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  • 21
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 201-224 | volume:2011 | year:2011 | number:2 | pages:201-224
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 201-224
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:201-224
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This paper examines the policies that have been proposed to solve the financial and sovereign debt crisis in Europe, against the backdrop of what the real underlying problems are: extreme differences in competitiveness; the absence of a growth strategy; sovereign, household and corporate debt at high levels in the very countries that are least competitive; and banks that have become too large, driven by dangerous trends in ‘capital markets banking’. The paper explains how counterparty risk spreads between banks and how the sovereign and banking crises are serving to exacerbate each other. Of all the policies proposed, the paper highlights those that are coherent and the magnitudes involved if the euro is not to fracture.
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  • 22
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 65-79 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:1 | pages:65-79
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (15 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 65-79
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:65-79
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Banks have been lowering their high pre-crisis leverage levels and are preparing for stricter regulatory capital requirements, and in the process have been reducing their lending. With the banking sector expected to shrink considerably, other actors, especially institutional investors, and new forms of financial intermediation will have to meet the credit needs of the economy. This may not only require enhancing and enlarging the perimeter of regulatory oversight, but may also need policy incentives to encourage new forms of market based lending, especially as it concerns financing long-term investment, including infrastructure, and SMEs. This was the background for the discussions at the April 2012 OECD Financial Roundtable that this note summarises. On the current outlook, participants agreed that recent policy actions in Europe have had a positive impact but more and longer-term policy actions will be needed to restore confidence among market participants and set the basis for recovery. Deleveraging is necessary but only about half-way completed. Regulatory reforms should support this process in a balanced way, avoid unintended consequences and help the transition towards increased non-bank intermediation by not imposing bank-like regulation on, e.g., insurance companies and hedge funds. Securitisation should be revitalised – perhaps with some (initial) government and regulatory support – to close the bank lending gap, especially for SME lending. Covered bonds can contribute in this, too, but their benefits may be limited, i.a. due to asset encumbrance. Mezzanine financing instruments could be useful for SME financing, and informal forms of equity financing could help small dynamic start-up companies.
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  • 23
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 9-29
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 21 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 9-29
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: As the OECD is celebrating its 50th anniversary, member countries are exiting from the biggest post-war financial and economic crisis and are trying to put their economies back onto strong, sustainable footing. While financial reforms should provide for a better, more sustainable balance between stability and growth, measures to strengthen the savings-investment channel should foster sustainable growth and development. These issues were explored at a High-Level OECD Financial Roundtable and are summarised in this article. Covered are the topics of financial reform to foster stability and long-term growth, the contribution of institutional investors to long-term growth, and creating a better environment for the financing of business innovation and green growth. With strained public sector finances, private capital needs to fill the funding gap for infrastructure and other long-term projects. Appropriate regulatory incentives to overcome short-termism, as well as risk-sharing arrangements e.g. via publicprivate partnerships, are needed in order to encourage market-based, long-term investment and risk capital financing. Better transparency, information and investor education can also play a role in enhancing long-term savings and investment.
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  • 24
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 9-36
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 9-36
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Europe has been beset by an interrelated banking crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Bond spreads faced by Greece and Ireland, and to a lesser extent Portugal followed by Spain, have increased. This paper explores these issues from the perspective of financial markets, focusing mainly on the four countries in the frontline of these pressures: Greece and Portugal, on the one hand, where the problems are primarily fiscal in nature; and Ireland and Spain, on the other, where banking problems related to the property boom and bust have been the key moving part. The paper first examines the probabilities of default implicit in observable market spreads and considers these calculations against sovereign debt dynamics. It then explores the implications of the interaction between bank losses and fiscal deficits on the one hand, and the feedback that any debt haircuts anticipated by markets could have on bank solvency. The study finds that market-implied sovereign default probabilities do in fact discriminate quite clearly between countries based on five criteria that affect the probability of debt restructuring. The discussion highlights some implications for banking system balance sheets of expected losses and shows the potential impact on them of sovereign restructuring implicit in market analysis. While the paper does not make any recommendations for policy action, it does explore a range of policy options and the implications each might have for the financial markets. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G15, G18, G21, H06, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: financial crisis, sovereign risks, public deficits and debt, bond markets, banks.
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  • 25
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 167-200
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 167-200
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This paper looks at Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (GSIFIs) and the global derivatives business. The derivatives business has grown exponentially versus global GDP in sharp contrast to the primary securities on which derivatives are based. Inter-connectedness risk and unconstrained potential leverage remain the most urgent tasks still facing the financial reform process. Concentrated oligopolistic derivatives markets and the ability of banks to shift promises and/or use their IRB models to estimate ex-ante risk capital – capital that might be needed in the event of a crisis – undermine the intent of financial reform. Nor do netting and clearing eliminate aggregate risk of losses and bankruptcy. The paper repeats the need to implement two of the OECD’s long-standing reform recommendations: a binding leverage ratio based on equity and the separation of high risk investment banking activities from traditional banking. A derivatives transactions tax is also put forward as a possible option that would counter the cross-subsidisation of risk from the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) problem.
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  • 26
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 1-34
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 1-34
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Discussions at the October 2010 OECD Financial Roundtable conveyed a rather sombre view regarding the current outlook and risks, heightened by financial sector weaknesses, ongoing deleveraging and sovereign debt. Policy makers should be prepared for downside risks to materialise along the way to recovery. Low interest rates and low returns pose specific challenges for institutional investors. While sovereign risk is currently a major concern, its measurement is rather complex and markets do not always provide proper guidance. Sovereign ratings can serve as a useful point of reference but should be made more forward-looking and less procyclical. Should default or debt restructuring become necessary, strong political backing can minimise its costs. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) was seen as helpful in providing a backstop. Some optimism was expressed as to the current fiscal adjustments underway to bring public finances back onto a sustainable path. Banking sectors remain fragile, especially in Europe, where, however, the transparency provided by recent stress tests has calmed some fears. Reactivating the wholesale markets for bank funding will be essential going forward. Capitalisation of the US banking sector has improved, but pockets of risk remain in exposures to commercial property by regional and small banks. Contingent convertible (bail-in) bonds could become a useful instrument for sharing the costs of crises, but they need to be made attractive for investors. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G15, G18, G21, G32, H06, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: financial crisis, sovereign risks, public deficits and debt, bond markets, banks
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  • 27
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 67-84
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 18 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 67-84
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The current interest rate environment has been conducive to financial institutions assuming exposure to interest rate risks. As interest rates are expected to rise globally, albeit slowly, and current steep yield curves may soon flatten, such risks may materialise in the near future. At the same time, weaknesses in the banking sector still exist, especially for some segments of the European banking sector. While the effects of changes in interest rates and their structure on financial institutions differ, recent changes in asset and funding structures of banks make them generally more vulnerable to a changing interest rate environment. Currency risk exposure has also grown, and regional concentration may pose specific risks. An unravelling of carry trades will have a negative effect on some institutions. Proper risk management can help during an adjustment process, and regulatory reforms underway will better support risk management functions in financial institutions that are, in any case, already adjusting to the new environment. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G15, G21, G32 Keywords: financial crisis, interest rate risks, sovereign risks, bond markets, banks
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  • 28
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 9-33
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 9-33
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: In previous studies, the OECD has identified the main hallmarks of the crisis as too-big-to-fail institutions that took on too much risk; insolvency resulting from contagion and counterparty risk; the lack of regulatory and supervisory integration; and the lack of efficient resolution regimes. This article looks at how the Basel III proposals address these issues, helping to reduce the chance of another crisis like the current one. The Basel III capital proposals have some very useful elements, notably a leverage ratio, a capital buffer and the proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses. However, this report also identifies some major concerns. For example, Basel III does not properly address the most fundamental regulatory problem that the “promises” that make up any financial system are not treated equally. This issue has many implications for the reform process, including reform of the structure of the supervision and regulation process and whether the shadow banking system should be incorporated into the regulatory framework – and, if so, how. Finally, modifications in the overall riskweighted asset framework are suggested that would deal with concentration issues.
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  • 29
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-27
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-27
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Contagion risk and counterparty failure have been the main hallmarks of the current crisis. While some large diversified banks that focused mainly on commercial banking survived very well, others suffered crippling losses. Sound corporate governance and strong riskmanagement culture should enable banks to avoid excessive leverage and risk taking. The question is whether there is a better way, via leverage rules or rules on the structures of large conglomerates, to ensure volatile investment banking functions do not dominate the future stability of the commercial banking and financial intermediation environment that is so critical for economic activity. While there is a main consensus on the need for reform of capital rules, dynamic provisioning, better co-operation for future crises, centralised trading of derivatives etc., the question is whether such reforms will be sufficient if they do not address contagion and counterparty risk directly. The world outside of policy making is waiting for a fundamental reassessment of banks’ business models: what banks are supposed to do and how they compete with each other. It is the “elephant in the room” on which some policy makers have not yet had the time or inclination to focus. This article emphasises not only the need for transparent and comparable accounting rules and for improvements in corporate governance, but also supports the imposition of a group leverage ratio to provide a binding capital constraint (that Basel riskweighted rules have been unable to achieve) and proposes a Non- Operating Holding Company Structure (NOHC) – reforms that are essential to deal with contagion and counterparty risk that are so integral to the ‘too big to fail’ issue.
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  • 30
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 37-53
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 17 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 37-53
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Financial markets have recovered substantially but vulnerabilities remain significant. Ample liquidity may lead to new bubbles, particularly in some emerging markets, and uncertainties about government exit strategies and regulatory changes threaten a fledgling upswing. Co-ordination and communication of exit policies will be important, and exit from policy stimulus should not be precipitated at the current juncture. While financial institutions have increasingly obtained market financing and paid back state aid, the sector remains fragile; thus, such voluntary pay-backs should meet preconditions aimed at ensuring the soundness and sustainability of the concerned institutions’ balance sheets. At the same time, expectations of future writedowns and more stringent capital rules put pressure on bank lending more generally. Restarting securitisation to support lending would be important and could be fostered by government initiatives focussing on standardisation, transparency and due diligence to restore investor confidence. Regulatory reforms currently being proposed concern accounting rules, capital requirements and compensation issues. However, further reforms are required to address such systemic issues as moral hazard created by public support. Measures would include resolution mechanisms for large and systemically important banks as well as appropriately fire-walled business structures for the financial sector. Peer pressure via co-operation in international standard-setting and relevant bodies should help to keep the reform momentum, overcome political impediments to reform and maintain a level playing field.
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  • 31
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 11-28
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 18 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 11-28
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This article looks at the stages of crisis management and some of the different degrees of transparency on losses and risks in the US and Europe. It also compares alternative approaches to dealing with impaired assets used in the USA and Europe. Exposure to off-balance losses remains a key issue. Europe, surprisingly, has been and remains the major issuer of collateralised synthetic obligations that have been so prominent in the crisis. The capital needs of banks over the next few years is examined, and great uncertainties remain due to the unknown extent to which off-balance sheet vehicles will need to be consolidated. Finally, the requirements of longer-run reform are outlined.
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  • 32
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-21
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-21
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This article treats some ideas and issues that are part of ongoing reflection at the OECD. They were first raised in a major research article for the Reserve Bank of Australia conference in July 2008, and benefited from policy discussion in and around that conference. One fundamental cause of the crisis was a change in the business model of banking, mixing credit with equity culture. When this model was combined with complex interactions from incentives emanating from macro policies, changes in regulations, taxation, and corporate governance, the current crisis became the inevitable result. The paper points to the need for far-reaching reform for a more sustainable situation in the future.
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  • 33
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-40
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 45 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-40
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This financial crisis, ending a period of search for yield and increased risktaking,has triggered various policy responses, ranging from more ad-hoc measures initially to more structured and co-ordinated financial sector rescue actions as the crisis evolved. Lessons drawn so far should help to devise longer-term, more encompassing and more consistent policies. Various reforms are being proposed by the financial industry as well as by official authorities and international standard-setting bodies, many of which arrive at similar conclusions regarding the causes of and remedies for the crisis. Shortcomings in risk management, including compensation schemes, governance structures, liquidity and counterparty risk, need to be addressed.
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  • 34
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 29-60
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 29-60
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The situation in financial markets deteriorated over the past year, but government actions have helped to avert an even bigger crisis. While some signs of recovery are on the horizon, the banking sectors in many countries are not yet on solid footing. Recent government programmes that deal with banks’ ‘toxic assets’ are welcome in this regard. But further reaching financial sector reforms such as those recently endorsed by the G20 leaders and proposed in Europe and the United States are necessary in order to establish a sound financial system.
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  • 35
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 29-53
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 29-53
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper revises our previous USD 300 bn estimate for mortgage related losses to a range of USD 350-420 bn. In doing this the paper explicitly rejects the previous approach based on implied defaults from ABX pricing, because these prices are affected by illiquidity and extreme volatility; they will likely lead to misleading estimates of losses. Instead it builds a proper default model approach and allows for recovery of collateral via house sales over time. The paper separates out the losses due to commercial banks in the US, and goes on to look at the implied deleveraging required to meet capital standards. It could take 6-12 months for banks to offset losses via earnings alone, depending on Fed rate cuts and the dividend policy of banks. Since even more capital than this is required if banks were to expand their balance sheets, the paper looks at possibilities for capital injections from groups like sovereign wealth funds; and it also looks at a novel plan for the use of public money with an RTC-style approach and the issue of zero coupon bonds. Finally the paper looks at the issues of moral hazard, the likely size of the impact in Europe and Asia and non-bank corporate leverage.
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  • 36
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 117-132
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 16 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 117-132
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are pools of assets owned and managed directly or indirectly by governments to achieve national objectives. These funds have raised concerns about: i) financial stability; ii) corporate governance and iii) political interference and protectionism. At the same time governments have formed other large pools of capital to finance public pension systems, i.e. Public Pension Reserve Funds (PPRFs). SWFs are set up to diversify and improve the return on foreign exchange reserves or commodity revenue, and to shield the domestic economy from fluctuations in commodity prices. PPRFs are set up to contribute to financing pay-as-you-go pension plans. The total of SWF pools is estimated at around USD 2.6 trillion in 2006/7, and is getting bigger rapidly, owing to current exchange rate policies and oil prices. The total amount for PPRFs is even larger, around USD 4.4 trillion in 2006/7, if the US Trust Fund is included (USD 2.2 trillion if excluded). SWFs and PPRFs share some characteristics, hence give rise to similar concerns. However, their objectives, investment strategies, sources of funding and transparency requirements differ. There is concern about strategic and political objectives of SWFs, and their impact on exchange rates and asset prices. But SWFs also provide mechanisms for breaking up concentrations of portfolios that increase risk. Enhancing governance and transparency of SWFs is important, but such considerations have to be weighed against commercial objectives.
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  • 37
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 201-238
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 38 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 201-238
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The demand for long-dated bonds has increased, driven by stricter asset-liability matching regulations governing pension funds, new international accounting standards, as well as new risk-based regulations for insurance companies. In several countries, pension funds and insurance companies are important investors in long-dated bonds. Projections of rapidly ageing and longer-living populations in most OECD countries indicate that the demand for ultra-long paper is poised to grow further. Governments in several OECD countries have responded to that demand, by starting or re-introducing the issuance of very long (20 to 30 years) and ultra-long (30 years and longer) bonds, provided that the issuance of those bonds is consistent with the cost-risk objectives of the minimisation of borrowing cost subject to a preferred level of risk. Consequently, there has been an increase in the supply of (ultra-)long bonds as a percentage of total bonds outstanding in many markets. An important consideration for issuers is that pension funds and insurance companies are to an important degree buy-and-hold investors. This may lead to illiquid markets in long-dated paper when the ongoing supply of (ultra-)long government bonds remains below a certain critical level, resulting in higher government borrowing costs than paper issued in liquid markets. From a medium-term strategic issuers’ perspective, a liquid market in (ultra-)long bonds requires substantial and regular issues by government debt managers. Changes in regulatory standards and the adoption of new international reporting standards have increased the focus on liability-driven investing by pension funds. The study concludes that it is likely that there will be some re-allocation of the assets of many pension funds and insurance companies toward (ultra-)long bonds. However, views differ as to the pace and magnitude of such a re-allocation.résumé La gestion de la dette publique et l’évolution du marché des titres d’État à (ultra) long terme La demande d’obligations à échéances éloignées a augmenté, sous l’effet de plusieurs facteurs : durcissement de la réglementation relative à la congruence des actifs et des passifs applicables aux fonds de pension, nouvelles normes comptables internationales et nouvelles réglementations fondées sur les risques pour les sociétés d’assurance. Dans plusieurs pays, les fonds de pension et les sociétés d’assurance sont de gros investisseurs en obligations à échéances éloignées. Les projections faisant état d’un vieillissement rapide des populations et de l’allongement de l’espérance de vie dans la plupart des pays de l’OCDE indiquent que la demande de titres à ultra long terme ne peut que s’accroître encore. Les gouvernements de plusieurs pays de l’OCDE réagissent à cette demande en introduisant ou réintroduisant des émissions de titres à très long terme (20 à 30 ans) et à ultra long terme (30 ans et plus), dès lors que ces émissions sont cohérentes avec leurs objectifs ‘coût-risque’ de minimisation du coût d’emprunt pour un niveau de risque préféré. On a donc assisté sur de nombreux marchés à une augmentation de l’offre d’obligations à (ultra) long terme en pourcentage de l’encours total d’obligations. Considération importante pour les émetteurs, les fonds de pension et les sociétés d’assurance sont dans une large mesure des investisseurs qui suivent une politique de type « acheter pour conserver ». Cela peut conduire à des marchés illiquides des titres à échéances éloignées lorsque l’offre de titres d’État à (ultra) long terme reste inférieure à un certain seuil critique, ce qui accroît les coûts d’emprunt des pouvoirs publics par rapport aux titres émis sur des marchés liquides. Du point de vue des émetteurs ayant une stratégie à moyen terme, un marché liquide des obligations à (ultra) long terme suppose des émissions substantielles et régulières de la part des gestionnaires de la dette publique. L’évolution des normes réglementaires et l’adoption des nouvelles normes de communication financière ont accru la tendance des fonds de pension à orienter leurs investissements en fonction de leurs engagements. Selon les conclusions de l’étude, on assistera probablement à une certaine réallocation des actifs de nombreux fonds de pension et sociétés d’assurance au profit des obligations à (ultra) long terme. Néanmoins, les avis divergent quant au rythme et à l’ampleur de ce phénomène.
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  • 38
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 27-57
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 31 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 27-57
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper looks at financial market innovation and how it has led to the rapid growth of structured products. It explores the mechanisms that come into play as assets inside these products (mortgages, credit card receivables, etc.) suffer losses. The potential size of such losses is currently concerning financial markets, and the paper looks at various ways to quantify the issues and where, going forward, pressures are most likely to arise. The problem is seen mainly as a stock adjustment issue (related to inventories of assets etc.) that is going to require time to set right. Time could well be more important than the cost of capital. The idea of a super fund to buy up unwanted assets should be seen in this context. The paper goes on to look at financial market implications, including the credit supply process, spreads, and the dollar.
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  • 39
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 37-57
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 37-57
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The size of the hedge fund sector, using IOSCO sources and results from responses to an OECD Questionnaire on Hedge Funds, is around USD 1.4 trillion in assets under management (AUM). While this does not seem that large compared to total global AUM, the hedge fund share of trading turnover (augmented by leverage and investment style) is much greater than its share of global AUM....
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  • 40
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 59-86
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 33 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 59-86
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Private equity, by focusing on under-performing companies that can be transformed and subsequently re-floated, fosters rapid corporate restructuring – enhancing productivity. M&A and private equity deals are very strong at present, and private equity use of leverage is accelerating sharply...
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