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  • Blundell-Wignall, Adrian  (25)
  • Schich, Sebastian  (25)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (50)
  • Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press
  • Finance and Investment  (50)
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  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (50)
  • Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press
  • Paris : OECD  (1)
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD working papers on international investment 2017, 01
    Series Statement: OECD working papers on international investment
    Keywords: corrumption ; institutions ; law ; foreign direct investment ; Finance and Investment ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper estimates a dynamic foreign direct investment (FDI) gravity model to explore the impact of corruption in general and the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention in particular. The evidence from previous studies in both domains is mixed, probably due to econometric inconsistencies and misuse of data. The more robust findings are that corruption has an insignificant or even positive effect on FDI in the general population. However, adherence to the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention has a clear negative impact on FDI—countries that adhere reduce investments in corrupt destinations.
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Observer
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (4 p.)
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Observer
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2015, no. 2, p. 29-61
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:29-61
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This report demonstrates that the contingent liabilities associated with efforts to limit the adverse externalities stemming from failures in the European banking sector are substantially decreasing as a result of new regulation. Noting that the implied shifting of losses from taxpayers to bank creditors is desirable, the report recognises that losses do not disappear. It discusses the issue of where bank recovery or resolution bail-in losses may go. It underlines that the sectoral allocation of losses matters, but concludes that our understanding needs to be further developed and that more transparency about the structure of bank creditors would be desirable. Increasing transparency in this regard would, among other things, help assure policy makers that the new tools available can be used effectively and smoothly in actual practice. Also, raising awareness of investors in bail-inable bank debt about the associated risks should enhance the credibility of the bail-in framework.
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2015, no. 2, p. 7-27 | volume:2015 | year:2015 | number:2 | pages:7-27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (21 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2015, no. 2, p. 7-27
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-27
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Earlier OECD research has shown that capital flow management measures (CFMs) that are used as macro-prudential measures (MPMs), including currency-based restrictions applied to banks’ operations also with non-residents, have the intended negative impact on capital account openness as measured by covered interest parity indicators. But what is their impact as macro-prudential tools to improve resilience to financial stability risks? This paper refers to the Bruno and Shin (2013) study that suggests that currency-based restrictions act as an effective macro-prudential buffer by reducing the sensitivity in emerging economies of cross-border bank lending to global credit cycles as measured by the volatility index VIX. The specific restrictions considered by the Bruno and Shin study are defined as CFMs and MPMs by both the IMF and the OECD. The paper shows that this result is mitigated when using updated data and testing the same hypotheses for more countries. Therefore further research is needed before concluding on the effectiveness of CFMs used as MPMs. On the other hand, the paper does find that CFMs, including currency-based measures, play a role in managing the domestic credit implications of those central banks engaged in foreign exchange interventions. The paper suggests that countries concerned with financial stability risks that may arise from global credit push factors, while wishing to avoid price distortions caused by CFMs, could use Basel III-consistent liquidity coverage ratios and net stable funding ratios as alternatives to CFMs; they also have the advantage of not having raised objections between governments so far regarding international commitments to exchange rate flexibility and cross-border openness, including the OECD Code of Liberalisation of Capital Movements.
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2016, no. 1, p. 1-36 | volume:2016 | year:2016 | number:1 | pages:1-36
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2016, no. 1, p. 1-36
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2016
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2016
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:1-36
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This report provides estimates of the costs associated with bank resolution both in terms of the expected costs that might arise should a bank fail (i.e. as “ex-post” costs), as well as the cost associated with the likelihood that a solvent bank might fail (i.e. as “ex-ante” costs) over the next year. It finds that expected resolution costs (ex-post costs) have dropped recently due to higher average capital ratios and a lower level of bank liabilities as a percentage of GDP. The annualised value of these expected resolution costs (ex-ante costs), which increased sharply after 2008, has since subsided, but remains well above its 2008 level. Overall, the estimates produced in this report support the notion that recent financial sector reforms have had an impact on reducing the costs associated with bank failure, including the expected costs to taxpayers. However, estimates are in most cases yet to return to pre-crisis levels.
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  • 6
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    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 63-88 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:2 | pages:63-88
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 63-88
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:63-88
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics
    Abstract: What are the economic effects of implicit bank debt guarantees and who ultimately benefits from them? This paper finds that “financial excesses” – situations where bank credit reaches levels that reduce economic growth – have been stronger in OECD countries characterised by larger values of implicit guarantees and where bank creditors have not incurred losses in bank failure resolution cases. Also, implicit bank debt guarantees benefit financial sector employees and other high-income earners in two ways, increasing income inequality. First, implicit guarantees are likely to raise financial sector pay. This is consistent with the observation of “financial sector wage premia”, or financial sector employees earning in excess of their profile in terms of age, education and other characteristics. Second, implicit guarantees are likely to result in more and cheaper bank lending. If so, well-off people tend to benefit relatively more since household credit is more unequally distributed than income. JEL classification: D63, E43, G21, G28, O47 Keywords: Bank funding costs, implicit guarantees for bank debt, bank failure resolution, finance and growth, finance and income inequality
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 7-45 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:2 | pages:7-45
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 7-45
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-45
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics
    Abstract: This paper uses data drawn from 10 000 global companies in 75 advanced and emerging countries to look at trends in infrastructure and other non-financial industries in light of the talk of stagnation. There appears to be a twin paradox in the global economy: some companies and industries are possibly over-investing, driving down returns on equity (ROEs) versus the cost of capital and creating margin pressure globally, while others carry out too little long-term investment in favour of buybacks and the accumulation of cash. This pattern is associated with a shift in the centre of gravity of world economic activity towards emerging markets. Most of the over-investment appears to be occurring in the extremely strong growth of emerging market sales and investment in non-infrastructure companies, much of which is being financed from rapidly growing debt since the financial crisis. Global value chains, emerging market policies of financial repression, low interest rates, taxation incentives, natural resource endowments and other factors determine where investment is stronger and where it is restrained. Potential problems of debt-financed over-investment in non-infrastructure industries in emerging markets and the incentives for buybacks are identified as major policy issues that need to be addressed if sustainable growth is to be achieved. Evidence on the role of causal factors (sales, GDP, the return on equity, the cost of equity and debt and a measure of financial openness) on corporate capital spending is presented. Finally some policy recommendations are made. JEL classification: F21, G15, G18, G23 Keywords: Global economy, infrastructure, investment, listed companies
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  • 8
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:43-68
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:43-68
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money: excess leverage and default pressure resulting from contagion and counterparty risk. This paper looks at whether the Basel III agreement addresses these issues effectively. Basel III has some very useful elements, notably a (much too light “back-up”) leverage ratio, a capital buffer, a proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses and liquidity and stable funding ratios. However, the paper shows that Basel risk weighting and the use of internal bank models for determining them leads to systematic regulatory arbitrage that undermines its effectiveness. Empirical evidence about the determinants of the riskiness of a bank (measured in this study by the Distance-to-Default) shows that a simple leverage ratio vastly outperforms the Basel Tier 1 ratio. Furthermore, business model features (after controlling for macro factors) have a huge impact. Derivatives origination, prime broking, etc., carry vastly different risks to core deposit banking. Where such differences are present, it makes little sense to have a one-size-fits-all approach to capital rules. Capital rules make more sense when fundamentally different businesses are separated. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, Basel III, derivatives, bank business models, distance-todefault, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
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  • 9
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:99-121
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:99-121
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the 1980s OECD investment-saving correlations – as an inverse measure of economic openness – indicate a very wide disparity of openness between the OECD and emerging market economies (EMEs) with an absence of open markets in the latter. Given the increasing weight of EMEs in the world economy this pattern of growth with disparity of openness is ultimately unsustainable. This approach to development is not in the interests of EMEs in the post-crisis global environment. Various studies show how the absence of capital mobility inhibits development though private sector capital expenditure at the firm level. This paper generalises those findings in a panel study, showing that in the period since 2008 the increased presence of capital controls is associated with highly significant negative effects on business investment. It suggests that the world economy could be entering a more dangerous phase of potential instability that is not in the interests of either the advanced or the emerging world. There is scope for better policies to encourage more openness; the OECD Codes of Liberalisation could be an effective tool for managing the reform process.
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  • 10
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 69-98 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:69-98
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 69-98
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:69-98
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Bank regulatory reform is expected to limit the value of implicit bank debt guarantees, even if not plainly targeting such values. According to the responses from 35 countries to a survey on implicit bank debt guarantees, there is however no one specific policy capable of fully eliminating the market perception that bank debt is “special”. A mixture of several different and complementary policy measures is considered more helpful, with recurrent elements including the implementation of internationally agreed capital and liquidity standards, the tightening of micro- and macro-prudential supervision and making bank failure resolution more effective. As regards the overall thrust of bank regulatory reform efforts, most respondents suggest “strengthening banks” and “strengthening the capacity to withdraw the guarantee function” describes best their own efforts. By contrast, labelling certain policy measures as “effectively charging a user fee” is considered problematic as it might make explicit what currently is at most implicit.
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  • 11
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:7-28
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-28
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper explores the issue of macro-prudential policies in the light of empirical evidence on the determinants of bank systemic risk, and the effectiveness of capital controls. In many ways this reflects a step back in time towards sector approaches to monetary policy that were so prevalent in the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s. Complexity and interdependence is such that proposals on these issues should be treated with care until much more is understood about the issue. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01. Keywords: Macro-prudential policies, capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis.
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  • 12
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 39-67 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:39-67
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 39-67
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:39-67
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Implicit guarantees of bank debt create economic costs and distortions, which is why policy makers have clearly announced their intention to rein in the value of implicit guarantees. This report identifies key findings from the responses from 35 countries to a survey on implicit guarantees. The survey shows that while authorities have not settled on the best way of measuring such guarantees, it is important to produce estimates of the value of these guarantees to facilitate the task of assessing progress in bank regulatory reform and in reducing the value of these guarantees. Whatever method is used, the value of implicit bank debt guarantees is substantial. In absolute terms, the estimated funding cost advantages can amount to about USD 10 billion on an annual basis for banking sectors in some jurisdictions and, in many cases, they are estimated to represent the equivalent of 1% of domestic GDP; in crisis situations, this value could rise to close to 3% of domestic GDP.
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  • 13
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 7-37 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:7-37
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 7-37
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-37
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The value of implicit guarantees has declined from its peak at the height of the financial crisis, which is consistent with progress made regarding the bank regulatory reform agenda, as one would expect that many of the reform measures imply a more limited value of implicit guarantees for bank debt. Implicit guarantees persist however and their value continues to be significant, estimated here to be equivalent to EUR 50 billion of annual funding costs savings for a sample of more than 100 large European banks. This estimated funding cost advantage is a conservative estimate as it only focuses on one type of debt that can be measured in “real-time”, that is as data on credit ratings, debt issuance and prices of debt become available. In any case, bank debt continues to be considered “special” by market participants and this observation implies that the substantial economic distortions, including distortions to risk-taking incentives and competition, arising from this situation also persist.
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  • 14
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:69-91
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:69-91
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money while gains were privatised and losses socialised. It is shown that banks need little capital in calm periods, but in a crisis they need too much – there is no reasonable ex-ante capital rule for large systemically important financial institutions that will make them safe. The bank regulators paradox is that large complex and interconnected banks need very little capital in the good times, but they can never have enough in an extreme crisis. Separation is required to deal with this problem, which derives mainly from counterparty risk. The study suggests banks should be considered for separation into a ring-fenced non-operating holding company (NOHC) structure with ring-fencing when they pass a key allowable threshold for the gross market value (GMV) of derivatives, a case which is reinforced if the bank has high wholesale funding and low levels of liquid trading assets. The pricing of derivatives and repos would become more commensurate with the risks if the NOHC proposal were to be pursued as a unifying strategy for the different national approaches. Most of the objections to this structure are summarised and rebutted. Other national proposals for separation in Switzerland, the Volcker rule, the Vickers rule, and the Liikanen proposal are argued to be inferior to the ring-fenced NOHC proposal, on the grounds that empirical evidence about what matters for a safe business model is not taken properly into account. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, derivatives, bank business models, distance-to-default, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
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  • 15
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:29-42
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:29-42
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The results of an IMF study on controls on capital inflows in emerging economies, using a probit regression approach, are first replicated and tested for stability. The IMF results, downplayed by the authors, have been used by others to suggest controls can be helpful in a crisis situation. However, the stability findings suggest the results are not sufficiently robust to make strong claims in this regard. The same 37 countries and the IMF capital control measures are then used in a panel regression study to examine the impact of capital inflows on annual real GDP growth around the Global Financial Crisis. The results between the pre-crisis and the crisis periods are inconsistent with the IMF study – finding that capital restrictions on inflows (particularly debt liabilities) are most useful in good times when inflows to emerging markets are strong and upward pressure on managed exchange rates and reserves accumulation is greatest. However, lower controls on bonds and on FDI inflows seem to be associated with better growth outcomes during the crisis period studied. These findings are more consistent with studies that see capital controls as part of exchange rate targeting policies and concerns about excess reserves accumulation. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01 Keywords: Capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis
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  • 16
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:2 | pages:7-34
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-34
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This study models the distance-to-default (DTD) of a large sample of banks with the aim of shedding light on policy and regulatory issues. The determinants of the distance-to-default in a panel sample of 94 banks over the period 2004 to 2011, controlling for the market beta of each bank, includes house prices, relative size, simple leverage, derivatives gross market value of exposure, trading assets, wholesale funding and cross-border revenue. The Basel Tier 1 ratio finds no support as a predictor of default risk. The un-weighted leverage ratio, on the other hand, finds strong support. At the macro level house prices are a powerful predictor of the DTD. At the business model level, the results appear to be consistent with an approach to policy that focuses on the apparent importance of the “size-derivativesleverage- wholesale funding nexus” in influencing the DTD of banks. While these results are preliminary, it is encouraging that the out-of-sample predictive power of the model improves systematically as each year of new observations is added. The results are also consistent with some central bank involvement in the supervision process, given the importance of the asset price cycle, identified in this study.
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  • 17
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:39-52
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:39-52
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper argues that interest rates are at extremely low levels to support banks, and the search for yield has pushed the liquidity driven speculative bubble from real estate, derivatives and structured products markets into the corporate debt market. Equities have rallied strongly too. This asset cycle is certainly helping banks reduce hidden losses on illiquid securities and could also help reduce the cost of equity. But for this to occur at current bond yields would require an unrealistic bubble in equities. Markets are assuming that this transition from low to higher rates (more in line with nominal GDP) can be handled smoothly by policy makers, when in fact this may not be so. Extreme volatility would risk new financial fragility problems. The paper presents a panel model using more than 4 000 global companies and shows that the Capex decision in general depend on the cost of equity, the accelerator and uncertainty, whereas buybacks are driven mainly by the gap between the cost of equity and debt. Right now the incentive structure implied by very low interest rates, which may be sustained for a long time, together with tax incentives, works directly against longterm investment. Debt finance is cheap, while the cost of equity capital needed for risky long-term investment is still high. This combination provides a direct incentive for borrowing to carry out buybacks (de-equitisation). Noting that weak investment reduces potential GDP, the paper makes some policy suggestions. JEL Classification: G15, G32, G28, E52. Keywords: Long-term investment, interest rates, de-equitisation, cost of capital, dividend and buybacks, monetary policy.
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  • 18
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 35-65 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:2 | pages:35-65
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 35-65
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:35-65
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: High values of implicit guarantees for bank debt can be taken as signalling the market’s expectation that public authorities will rescue the institution in question in times of severe financial distress. By the same token, declines in the measure would suggest a drop in the perceived likelihood of such a bailout, perhaps reflecting the availability of more effective failure resolution tools (although they could also reflect other factors such an improvement in the asset quality of banks).
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  • 19
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:7-30
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-30
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Banks are still dealing with historic losses buried in their balance sheets. As a result, the US economy is picking up only modestly and Europe is sinking further into recession, despite unprecedented low interest rates and policies to compress the term premium. The aim of this study is to explore the business activities of banks, with a special focus on their lending behaviour, and its responsiveness to unconventional monetary policy. The paper shows that deleveraging has been mainly via mark-to-market assets falling in value, and policy is now serving to reflate these assets without a strong impact on lending. A panel regression study shows that GSIFI banks are least responsive to policy. Non-GSIFI banks respond to the lending rate spread to cash rates, the spread between lending rates and the alternative investment in government bonds, and the distance-to-default (the banks solvency). The paper shows that better lending in the USA is a result of safer banks and a better spread to government bonds – yields on the latter are too attractive relative to lending rates in Europe. Finally, the paper comments on the problem of using cyclical tools to address structural problems in banks, and suggests which alternative policies would better facilitate a financial system more aligned with lending, trust and stability and less towards high-risk activities and leverage via complex products. JEL Classification: E50, E51, E52, E58, G20, G21, G24, G28. Keywords: Bank Lending, Bank business model, deleveraging, structural policy, unconventional monetary policy, distance to default, spreads, bank separation, GSIFI.
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  • 20
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 45-63 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:1 | pages:45-63
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (19 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 45-63
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:45-63
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The global financial crisis and the policy response to it have placed a sharp spotlight on the issue of implicit guarantees for bank debt. This report discusses the incidence of implicit government guarantees for bank debt, their determinants, and estimates of their value. It shows i) that the extent of implicit guarantees differs from one banking sector to another and, within a given banking sector, from one bank to another, ii) that implicit guarantees are higher the lower the bank’s stand-alone creditworthiness, the higher the creditworthiness of its sovereign and the relatively bigger the bank in its domestic context, iii) that the incidence of implicit guarantees increased since the beginning of the financial crisis, but has decreased more recently, iv) that this recent decrease can be explained to a large extent by declining sovereign strength and hence a reduced capacity of on the part of many sovereigns to provide for such guarantees, but is also consistent with ongoing efforts in many OECD countries to make bank failure resolution regimes and practices more effective, and v) that implicit guarantees persist. Implicit guarantees imply an undesirably close link between the value of bank and sovereign debt. They also imply significant funding cost advantages for the banks that benefit from them, thus implying competitive distortions and an invitation to beneficiary banks to use them and, perhaps, take on too much risk.
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  • 21
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 201-224 | volume:2011 | year:2011 | number:2 | pages:201-224
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 201-224
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:201-224
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This paper examines the policies that have been proposed to solve the financial and sovereign debt crisis in Europe, against the backdrop of what the real underlying problems are: extreme differences in competitiveness; the absence of a growth strategy; sovereign, household and corporate debt at high levels in the very countries that are least competitive; and banks that have become too large, driven by dangerous trends in ‘capital markets banking’. The paper explains how counterparty risk spreads between banks and how the sovereign and banking crises are serving to exacerbate each other. Of all the policies proposed, the paper highlights those that are coherent and the magnitudes involved if the euro is not to fracture.
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  • 22
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 7-44 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:1 | pages:7-44
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 7-44
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-44
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the crisis, even with massive support from governments and central banks, widespread regulatory changes and promises from bank executives to improve the governance of risk, the world continues to see failures of Globally Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs, like Dexia), and huge losses (most recently from JP Morgan). Banks refuse to lend to each other, the central banks have become the interbank market and ‘bad deleveraging’ bears down on the economy forcing job losses in small- and medium-sized companies. ‘Good deleveraging’ occurs via building capital, and in this respect the US approach to dealing with the crisis provides something of a lesson that policy makers in Europe should take note of. With respect to regulations, the paper shows that capital and liquidity rules create a bias against lending to the enterprise sector (that drives jobs and economic growth). With respect to G-SIFIs, the paper shows how movements in their balance sheets are dominated by derivatives, the exposure to which varies with the cycle in risk. Netting of derivatives provides no protection against market risk, and the collateral and margin calls associated with these swings is both pro-cyclical and dangerous. The paper argues the OECD case that the best way to deal with all of these issues – both materially reducing the risk that arises from too-big-to fail while encouraging well-capitalised retail banks get on with the job of lending to create jobs – is to separate retail banking from securities business and ensure the former is (particularly in Europe) well capitalised. In this respect the paper argues that the non-operating holding company approach with ring-fenced subsidiaries (close to the Vickers proposal in the UK) is perhaps a better model than the US Volcker rule.
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  • 23
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 21-45 | volume:2011 | year:2011 | number:2 | pages:21-45
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (25 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 21-45
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:21-45
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Sovereigns effectively provided the function of guarantor-of-last resort in response to the 2008/09 banking crisis, and recent bank funding challenges have led to renewed calls for explicit sovereign bank debt guarantees. The present paper focuses on the interconnections between the values of sovereign and bank debt that arise through sovereign guarantees for banks. We develop a valuation framework based on concepts of contingent claims analysis. In particular, we investigate the value of insurance of risky bank debt when the sovereign providing the guarantee can itself be risky. The framework is in principle applicable both to explicit and implicit guarantees and it is applied here to a measure of implicit external (mostly from the sovereign) support for the debt of a crosssection of 100 large European banks. Consistent with the model, the implicit support is higher, the lower the bank’s stand-alone creditworthiness and the higher the sovereign’s creditworthiness. These results have implications for pricing sovereign bank debt guarantees, be they provided individually by each sovereign for its domestic banks or by several sovereigns jointly. In the former case, stronger sovereigns should charge higher premiums for their bank debt guarantees for a given bank risk if the aim is to avoid creating distortions to competition. In the latter, they should receive greater allotments of premium incomes even where the share of the guarantees provided are identical among sovereigns.
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  • 24
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 201-235
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 35 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 201-235
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Guarantees have become the preferred instrument to address many financial policy objectives. The incidence of financial sector guarantee arrangements that address specific policy objectives, such as supporting financial stability, protecting consumers and influencing credit allocations, has increased markedly over the past decades and additional schemes are under consideration. This report identifies considerations regarding consistency and affordability that policymakers should take into account before introducing additional guarantee arrangements. One of them is that the safety net cannot be expanded without limits. In fact, as regards the strength of the net of government-supported guarantees for financial promises, the wider that net is cast (without altering its other key parameters), the thinner it becomes.
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  • 25
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 9-36
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 9-36
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Europe has been beset by an interrelated banking crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Bond spreads faced by Greece and Ireland, and to a lesser extent Portugal followed by Spain, have increased. This paper explores these issues from the perspective of financial markets, focusing mainly on the four countries in the frontline of these pressures: Greece and Portugal, on the one hand, where the problems are primarily fiscal in nature; and Ireland and Spain, on the other, where banking problems related to the property boom and bust have been the key moving part. The paper first examines the probabilities of default implicit in observable market spreads and considers these calculations against sovereign debt dynamics. It then explores the implications of the interaction between bank losses and fiscal deficits on the one hand, and the feedback that any debt haircuts anticipated by markets could have on bank solvency. The study finds that market-implied sovereign default probabilities do in fact discriminate quite clearly between countries based on five criteria that affect the probability of debt restructuring. The discussion highlights some implications for banking system balance sheets of expected losses and shows the potential impact on them of sovereign restructuring implicit in market analysis. While the paper does not make any recommendations for policy action, it does explore a range of policy options and the implications each might have for the financial markets. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G15, G18, G21, H06, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: financial crisis, sovereign risks, public deficits and debt, bond markets, banks.
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  • 26
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 1-34
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 1-34
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Systemic financial crises are a recurrent phenomenon, and despite regulatory efforts they are likely to occur again. This report compares the ex ante funding of deposit insurance schemes in a selection of countries, highlighting the “funding gap” left by these arrangements in the recent systemic financial crisis. To fill that gap, different approaches have been adopted across countries in the recent crisis. Where support for the financial sector was provided as part of policy response to the crisis, new taxes have been adopted to generate revenues ex post, although the specific approaches have differed. While there is no single solution in this regard, this report finds that ex ante funded systemic crisis resolution funds, together with strengthened failure resolution powers, are in principle adequate to help fill the gap. JEL Classification: E44, G01, G21, G28, E61, H21. Keywords: systemic financial crisis, systemic crisis resolution fund, deposit insurance, financial activities taxes, ex ante versus ex post funding.
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  • 27
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 167-200
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 167-200
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This paper looks at Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (GSIFIs) and the global derivatives business. The derivatives business has grown exponentially versus global GDP in sharp contrast to the primary securities on which derivatives are based. Inter-connectedness risk and unconstrained potential leverage remain the most urgent tasks still facing the financial reform process. Concentrated oligopolistic derivatives markets and the ability of banks to shift promises and/or use their IRB models to estimate ex-ante risk capital – capital that might be needed in the event of a crisis – undermine the intent of financial reform. Nor do netting and clearing eliminate aggregate risk of losses and bankruptcy. The paper repeats the need to implement two of the OECD’s long-standing reform recommendations: a binding leverage ratio based on equity and the separation of high risk investment banking activities from traditional banking. A derivatives transactions tax is also put forward as a possible option that would counter the cross-subsidisation of risk from the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) problem.
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  • 28
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 237-256
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 20 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 237-256
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: A period of protracted low interest rates is a feasible, even if not the most likely, scenario going forward and such a scenario would adversely affect pension funds and insurance companies. Protracted low interest rates affect investment opportunities and have a potentially significant adverse effect on life insurance companies and institutions whose liabilities consist of a fixed investment return or benefit promises, such as is the case for defined-benefit pension funds. It cannot be ruled out that the financial institutions affected engage in “gambling for redemption” in an attempt to match the level of return promised to beneficiaries when financial markets were more elevated.
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  • 29
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 9-33
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 9-33
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: In previous studies, the OECD has identified the main hallmarks of the crisis as too-big-to-fail institutions that took on too much risk; insolvency resulting from contagion and counterparty risk; the lack of regulatory and supervisory integration; and the lack of efficient resolution regimes. This article looks at how the Basel III proposals address these issues, helping to reduce the chance of another crisis like the current one. The Basel III capital proposals have some very useful elements, notably a leverage ratio, a capital buffer and the proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses. However, this report also identifies some major concerns. For example, Basel III does not properly address the most fundamental regulatory problem that the “promises” that make up any financial system are not treated equally. This issue has many implications for the reform process, including reform of the structure of the supervision and regulation process and whether the shadow banking system should be incorporated into the regulatory framework – and, if so, how. Finally, modifications in the overall riskweighted asset framework are suggested that would deal with concentration issues.
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  • 30
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 123-151
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 29 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 123-151
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The current financial crisis may primarily be a banking crisis, and the solvency of the insurance sector as a whole does not appear to be threatened. Nonetheless, insurance companies have been affected, and in mostly adverse ways. For many insurers, direct exposure to the epicentre of the crisis, the US mortgage market, and to related securities appears to have been limited. But the financial crisis has nonetheless had an increasingly visible impact on the insurance industry, primarily through their investment portfolios, as the crisis spread and financial market valuations and the outlook for real activity deteriorated significantly. Also, a number of concentrated exposures to credit and market risks have been revealed, including in US mortgage and financial guarantee insurance companies, as well as in parts of certain other insurance-dominated financial groups. Thus, while insurers as a group may have cushioned rather than amplified the downward pressures during the financial crisis, some clearly have added to downward pressures. Financial instruments that were at the core of difficulties served an insurance function and, thus, it is not so surprising that some institutions from that sector have been affected by the crisis on one or the other side of their balance sheets.
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  • 31
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-27
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-27
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Contagion risk and counterparty failure have been the main hallmarks of the current crisis. While some large diversified banks that focused mainly on commercial banking survived very well, others suffered crippling losses. Sound corporate governance and strong riskmanagement culture should enable banks to avoid excessive leverage and risk taking. The question is whether there is a better way, via leverage rules or rules on the structures of large conglomerates, to ensure volatile investment banking functions do not dominate the future stability of the commercial banking and financial intermediation environment that is so critical for economic activity. While there is a main consensus on the need for reform of capital rules, dynamic provisioning, better co-operation for future crises, centralised trading of derivatives etc., the question is whether such reforms will be sufficient if they do not address contagion and counterparty risk directly. The world outside of policy making is waiting for a fundamental reassessment of banks’ business models: what banks are supposed to do and how they compete with each other. It is the “elephant in the room” on which some policy makers have not yet had the time or inclination to focus. This article emphasises not only the need for transparent and comparable accounting rules and for improvements in corporate governance, but also supports the imposition of a group leverage ratio to provide a binding capital constraint (that Basel riskweighted rules have been unable to achieve) and proposes a Non- Operating Holding Company Structure (NOHC) – reforms that are essential to deal with contagion and counterparty risk that are so integral to the ‘too big to fail’ issue.
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  • 32
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 35-66
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 35-66
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: In 2010 authorities have taken the first steps to end some of the public support measures put in place in response to the financial crisis, starting with government guarantees for bond issues. Financial institutions have made extensive use of this tool, which has been effective in avoiding a further tightening of funding conditions, but this type of public support has, nonetheless, raised some concerns. First, the cost of issuing guaranteed bonds has mainly reflected the characteristics of the sovereign guarantor rather than those of the issuer, thus favouring “weak” borrowers with a “strong” sovereign backing. This situation has the potential to distort competition and create incentives for excessive risk taking. Such effects could have been reduced by the choice of a different fee determination mechanism. Second, the continued availability in 2010 of guarantee schemes, despite a declining overall usage, may be alleviating the pressure on some weak financial institutions to address their weaknesses: the average creditworthiness of banks issuing after mid-2009, when market conditions became more favourable, has sharply declined. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G21, G28. Keywords: financial crisis, policy response to the crisis, government guaranteed bonds, competitive distortions
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  • 33
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 55-89
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 35 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 55-89
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This article argues that the expansion of existing and the introduction of new guarantees for financial institutions has been a key element of the policy response to the recent financial crisis. Essentially, the government expanded its role as the provider of the safety net for banks by adopting the function of a guarantor of last resort. Among the various policy response measures, the expansion of guarantees has the benefit of entailing lower upfront fiscal costs relative to other options. Guarantees are not without cost however. Even if they do not generate significant upfront fiscal costs, they create contingent fiscal liabilities. Other potential costs include those arising from distortions to competition and incentives (moral hazard). For example, there may be a perception that similar guarantees will always be made available at low costs. The fact that the expansion of guarantees has not been as closely co-ordinated across borders as might have been desired has resulted in additional costs. To avoid additional costs arising from inconsistencies in exit strategies, close communication and coordination regarding pricing and timing issues is required, especially as a more formal framework for the public provision of insurance would still need to be developed.
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  • 34
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 11-28
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 18 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 11-28
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This article looks at the stages of crisis management and some of the different degrees of transparency on losses and risks in the US and Europe. It also compares alternative approaches to dealing with impaired assets used in the USA and Europe. Exposure to off-balance losses remains a key issue. Europe, surprisingly, has been and remains the major issuer of collateralised synthetic obligations that have been so prominent in the crisis. The capital needs of banks over the next few years is examined, and great uncertainties remain due to the unknown extent to which off-balance sheet vehicles will need to be consolidated. Finally, the requirements of longer-run reform are outlined.
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  • 35
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 89-123
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 35 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 89-123
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Government provision of a safety net for financial institutions has been a key element of the policy response to the current crisis. In the process, existing guarantees have been expanded and new ones introduced, including, in particular, in relation to bank liabilities. Among other things, such guarantees create costs that arise as a result of potential distortions of incentives and competition. To limit such distortions it is important to specify risk-based premiums for additional government-provided guarantees, and to the extent that guarantees are priced appropriately potential distortions also should be limited. The evidence however has been mixed in this regard. The present article discusses pricing and some other selected issues related to the recent expansion of guarantees for bank liabilities.
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  • 36
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-14
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 19 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-14
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The present article focuses on the so-called “asset meltdown hypothesis”, which postulates a direct link between demographic developments and the level of assetprices. In particular, proponents of this hypothesis argue, when baby boomers startentering retirement they will become net sellers of financial assets to finance retirement consumption. As subsequent generations are smaller in numbers, other things equal, this would put downward pressure on financial asset prices. Revisiting this hypothesis, there is some support for a link between demographics and financial asset prices, although the link may not be strong. A number of mitigating factors exist, so that “other things” will not be equal. A major question in this context is to what extent demographic developments and their implications for other variables affecting financial asset prices are already reflected in financial asset prices and how fast any additional pressures on financial asset prices will play themselves out.
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  • 37
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-31
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 36 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-31
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The present article focuses on issues related to asset decumulation. In discussing these issues, a key proposition is that financial institutions are most willing and able to offer decumulation products with fixed payment promises to the extent they are able to invest in financial assets that allow them to hedge a considerable part of the risks associated with the payment promises they extend.Indeed, what is sometimes overlooked in discussions bout shifts from asset accumulation to decumulation is that the decumulation phase also involves investment challenges, especially if specific patterns of payouts such as regular payouts of fixed amounts are aimed at. Many writers have argued for some time now that pension fund managers will have difficulty implementing asset-liability matching because there are insufficient quantities of suitable assets. As it turns out, the shortfall in hedging instruments extends to more than just the “toxic” tail of longevity risk, as is commonly being argued. The analysis in this article shows that hedging interest rate risk is also not as straightforward as one may think.
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  • 38
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-39
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 44 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-39
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Government provision of a financial safety net for banks and other financialinstitutions has been a key element of the policy response to the current financialcrisis. In the process, the design of many safety net elements, such as depositinsurance, has been redrawn in many jurisdictions. In particular, governmentsextended existing guarantees and introduced new ones. While these measures didnot address the root causes of the lack of confidence, they were neverthelesshelpful in avoiding a further accelerated loss of confidence, thus buying valuabletime.
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  • 39
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-21
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 1-21
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This article treats some ideas and issues that are part of ongoing reflection at the OECD. They were first raised in a major research article for the Reserve Bank of Australia conference in July 2008, and benefited from policy discussion in and around that conference. One fundamental cause of the crisis was a change in the business model of banking, mixing credit with equity culture. When this model was combined with complex interactions from incentives emanating from macro policies, changes in regulations, taxation, and corporate governance, the current crisis became the inevitable result. The paper points to the need for far-reaching reform for a more sustainable situation in the future.
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  • 40
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    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 117-132
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 16 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 117-132
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are pools of assets owned and managed directly or indirectly by governments to achieve national objectives. These funds have raised concerns about: i) financial stability; ii) corporate governance and iii) political interference and protectionism. At the same time governments have formed other large pools of capital to finance public pension systems, i.e. Public Pension Reserve Funds (PPRFs). SWFs are set up to diversify and improve the return on foreign exchange reserves or commodity revenue, and to shield the domestic economy from fluctuations in commodity prices. PPRFs are set up to contribute to financing pay-as-you-go pension plans. The total of SWF pools is estimated at around USD 2.6 trillion in 2006/7, and is getting bigger rapidly, owing to current exchange rate policies and oil prices. The total amount for PPRFs is even larger, around USD 4.4 trillion in 2006/7, if the US Trust Fund is included (USD 2.2 trillion if excluded). SWFs and PPRFs share some characteristics, hence give rise to similar concerns. However, their objectives, investment strategies, sources of funding and transparency requirements differ. There is concern about strategic and political objectives of SWFs, and their impact on exchange rates and asset prices. But SWFs also provide mechanisms for breaking up concentrations of portfolios that increase risk. Enhancing governance and transparency of SWFs is important, but such considerations have to be weighed against commercial objectives.
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  • 41
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 55-79
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 55-79
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: One specific aspect of financial safety nets that has been in the spotlight of late is deposit insurance. As events in markets are still unfolding, it is too soon to draw definitive conclusions regarding the effects of the crisis and the adequacy of financial safety nets, including deposit insurance arrangements. Nonetheless, preliminary suggestions for policy are emerging and the article singles out four areas for special attention. First, as regards coverage, deposit insurance systems with low levels of coverage and/or partial insurance may not be effective in preventing bank runs. Second, for an explicit deposit insurance system to be effective, depositors need to understand the extent of and limits to existing deposit protection schemes. Third, when different institutions are entrusted with responsibilities that are relevant in a crisis situation, ex ante arrangements delimiting the scope of the different responsibilities as well as the respective powers may not be sufficient to ensure co-ordination that is as close and smooth as needed. Fourth, the question as to whether a specific bankruptcy regime for banks is needed remains an important issue.
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  • 42
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 81-113
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 33 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 81-113
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Traditionally, bond insurers have provided guarantees of payments on municipal bonds, where defaults have been very limited. But since the late 1990s they have become increasingly involved as guarantors of elements of various structured financial products: in particular, the credit enhancements provided by these entities have played an important role in making securities based on sub-prime loans attractive to a wide range of investors. It is this trend change in their activity that has become the focal point in concerns about the health of these entities that have grown during the financial turbulence. The note identifies three policy issues that arise in the context of the current challenges facing these entities and it draws some preliminary findings. First, while concerns regarding the potential financial stability implications of further downgrades and/or failures of some of these companies have ebbed somewhat from their peaks in early 2008, the situation still bears monitoring. Second, current developments raise questions regarding the role of financial guarantors in specific financial market segments. In this context, there appears to be a public interest in the continued availability of guarantees on payments on municipal bonds. Private solutions seem to be forthcoming. Third, transparency of the financial guarantee insurance sector is limited. In this context, the performance of credit rating agencies in providing guidance for investors regarding the quality of the guarantees provided by financial guarantors appears to have been uneven.
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  • 43
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 29-53
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 29-53
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper revises our previous USD 300 bn estimate for mortgage related losses to a range of USD 350-420 bn. In doing this the paper explicitly rejects the previous approach based on implied defaults from ABX pricing, because these prices are affected by illiquidity and extreme volatility; they will likely lead to misleading estimates of losses. Instead it builds a proper default model approach and allows for recovery of collateral via house sales over time. The paper separates out the losses due to commercial banks in the US, and goes on to look at the implied deleveraging required to meet capital standards. It could take 6-12 months for banks to offset losses via earnings alone, depending on Fed rate cuts and the dividend policy of banks. Since even more capital than this is required if banks were to expand their balance sheets, the paper looks at possibilities for capital injections from groups like sovereign wealth funds; and it also looks at a novel plan for the use of public money with an RTC-style approach and the issue of zero coupon bonds. Finally the paper looks at the issues of moral hazard, the likely size of the impact in Europe and Asia and non-bank corporate leverage.
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  • 44
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 27-57
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 31 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 27-57
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper looks at financial market innovation and how it has led to the rapid growth of structured products. It explores the mechanisms that come into play as assets inside these products (mortgages, credit card receivables, etc.) suffer losses. The potential size of such losses is currently concerning financial markets, and the paper looks at various ways to quantify the issues and where, going forward, pressures are most likely to arise. The problem is seen mainly as a stock adjustment issue (related to inventories of assets etc.) that is going to require time to set right. Time could well be more important than the cost of capital. The idea of a super fund to buy up unwanted assets should be seen in this context. The paper goes on to look at financial market implications, including the credit supply process, spreads, and the dollar.
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  • 45
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 167-198
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 167-198
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: India’s financial sector has become much more diversified, with capital markets playing an increasingly important role. These markets have been substantially deregulated and, recent changes notwithstanding, many restrictions on capital flows have been eased, especially with respect to equity inflows. As well, the health of the public banks, which initially had very weak balance sheets, has been restored. While India’s regulatory, supervisory and financial policy authorities have made progress, they are likely to face challenges related to several aspects characterising the country’s financial system, including its banking sector and its capital markets. Banks remain subject to government imposed constraints on their lending portfolios and the banking sector is still dominated by public institutions. Although the Indian government has intensified its efforts to develop corporate bond markets, the latter remain relatively underdeveloped. Equity markets, which have evolved considerably, have recently been characterised by substantial price increases, in part reflecting large foreign inflows. This development raises the question of sustainability of valuations under changing global monetary liquidity conditions and risk aversion. Different policy responses have been considered by Indian authorities. Representatives from these authorities expressed a reluctance to interfere with the market process. However, the recent decisions by policy authorities suggest that during the course of the ongoing deliberations by policy authorities, these considerations have been outweighed by concerns about the consequences of failing to constrain inflows. The decision by authorities to disallow issuance of “participatory notes” by foreign institutional investors has to be seen in this context.
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  • 46
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 191-214
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 29 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 191-214
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: High levels of household indebtedness have been considered one source of risk for households’ balance sheets and financial stability for some time now. Household debt has risen in many OECD countries, although there is great variation among them in terms of the levels and compositions of debt, the distribution of associated risks within the financial system and between the latter and the household sector.
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  • 47
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 59-86
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 33 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 59-86
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Private equity, by focusing on under-performing companies that can be transformed and subsequently re-floated, fosters rapid corporate restructuring – enhancing productivity. M&A and private equity deals are very strong at present, and private equity use of leverage is accelerating sharply...
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  • 48
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 129-151
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 129-151
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Pension funds have become the largest class of investors in many markets and, given their size, the allocation of their assets has important implications for the relative prices of financial assets. There may be a trend shift of private (defined benefit) pension fund asset allocation strategies away from equity to bonds, especially to government bonds, given their limited credit risk. The potential demand for such bonds could, in principle, be very substantial, sufficient in fact to result in a scarcity of such bonds in circulation. Many debt managers have taken advantage of current bond market conditions and issued long-term to ultra-long-term bonds. But whether they should follow a strategy of maturity-lengthening with the express aim to facilitate the task for pension fund managers is a different matter. Most policy makers would not recommend that governments undertake to issue long-term debt with the express intent of meeting this demand, not least because they expect the price mechanism to clear apparent imbalances in asset markets.
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  • 49
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 37-57
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 1, p. 37-57
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The size of the hedge fund sector, using IOSCO sources and results from responses to an OECD Questionnaire on Hedge Funds, is around USD 1.4 trillion in assets under management (AUM). While this does not seem that large compared to total global AUM, the hedge fund share of trading turnover (augmented by leverage and investment style) is much greater than its share of global AUM....
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  • 50
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 61-92
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 61-92
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: There has been rapid growth in the share of assets under control of hedge funds over the past decade and, as a result, these entities have now become firmly entrenched in the universe of investment vehicles and, in turn, have themselves become important investors. Against this background, the OECD Committee on Financial Markets (CMF) discussed specific issues related to these entities on several occasions as part of its market surveillance activity. The present article provides a summary of selected aspects of recent CMF discussions related to hedge funds, focusing in particular on the responses to a questionnaire on hedge funds that was circulated prior to the CMF meeting in May 2007 to inform the discussion at that meeting. These various discussions suggested that a consensus is emerging that the most efficient way to address any policy concerns related to the activity of hedge funds is to focus on hedge fund investors and counterparties rather than on these entities themselves. Only a minority of countries are considering policy actions in a variety of areas, but many respondents seem to underline the need for public authorities to continue monitoring developments regarding hedge funds.
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