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  • 2010-2014  (28)
  • Blundell-Wignall, Adrian  (14)
  • Égert, Balázs  (14)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (28)
  • Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press
  • Cham : Springer International Publishing
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Bank business models and the Basel system : Complexity and interconnectedness (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:43-68
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:43-68
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money: excess leverage and default pressure resulting from contagion and counterparty risk. This paper looks at whether the Basel III agreement addresses these issues effectively. Basel III has some very useful elements, notably a (much too light “back-up”) leverage ratio, a capital buffer, a proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses and liquidity and stable funding ratios. However, the paper shows that Basel risk weighting and the use of internal bank models for determining them leads to systematic regulatory arbitrage that undermines its effectiveness. Empirical evidence about the determinants of the riskiness of a bank (measured in this study by the Distance-to-Default) shows that a simple leverage ratio vastly outperforms the Basel Tier 1 ratio. Furthermore, business model features (after controlling for macro factors) have a huge impact. Derivatives origination, prime broking, etc., carry vastly different risks to core deposit banking. Where such differences are present, it makes little sense to have a one-size-fits-all approach to capital rules. Capital rules make more sense when fundamentally different businesses are separated. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, Basel III, derivatives, bank business models, distance-todefault, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkd65b
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  • 2
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    Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth : Evidence for emerging economies (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:29-42
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:29-42
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The results of an IMF study on controls on capital inflows in emerging economies, using a probit regression approach, are first replicated and tested for stability. The IMF results, downplayed by the authors, have been used by others to suggest controls can be helpful in a crisis situation. However, the stability findings suggest the results are not sufficiently robust to make strong claims in this regard. The same 37 countries and the IMF capital control measures are then used in a panel regression study to examine the impact of capital inflows on annual real GDP growth around the Global Financial Crisis. The results between the pre-crisis and the crisis periods are inconsistent with the IMF study – finding that capital restrictions on inflows (particularly debt liabilities) are most useful in good times when inflows to emerging markets are strong and upward pressure on managed exchange rates and reserves accumulation is greatest. However, lower controls on bonds and on FDI inflows seem to be associated with better growth outcomes during the crisis period studied. These findings are more consistent with studies that see capital controls as part of exchange rate targeting policies and concerns about excess reserves accumulation. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01 Keywords: Capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkgthc
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  • 3
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    Problems in the international financial system (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:99-121
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:99-121
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the 1980s OECD investment-saving correlations – as an inverse measure of economic openness – indicate a very wide disparity of openness between the OECD and emerging market economies (EMEs) with an absence of open markets in the latter. Given the increasing weight of EMEs in the world economy this pattern of growth with disparity of openness is ultimately unsustainable. This approach to development is not in the interests of EMEs in the post-crisis global environment. Various studies show how the absence of capital mobility inhibits development though private sector capital expenditure at the firm level. This paper generalises those findings in a panel study, showing that in the period since 2008 the increased presence of capital controls is associated with highly significant negative effects on business investment. It suggests that the world economy could be entering a more dangerous phase of potential instability that is not in the interests of either the advanced or the emerging world. There is scope for better policies to encourage more openness; the OECD Codes of Liberalisation could be an effective tool for managing the reform process.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2014-5jxzmkg91s0t
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  • 4
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    Macro-prudential policy, bank systemic risk and capital controls (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:7-28
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-28
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper explores the issue of macro-prudential policies in the light of empirical evidence on the determinants of bank systemic risk, and the effectiveness of capital controls. In many ways this reflects a step back in time towards sector approaches to monetary policy that were so prevalent in the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s. Complexity and interdependence is such that proposals on these issues should be treated with care until much more is understood about the issue. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01. Keywords: Macro-prudential policies, capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkhks4
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  • 5
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    Bank business models and the separation issue (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:69-91
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:69-91
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money while gains were privatised and losses socialised. It is shown that banks need little capital in calm periods, but in a crisis they need too much – there is no reasonable ex-ante capital rule for large systemically important financial institutions that will make them safe. The bank regulators paradox is that large complex and interconnected banks need very little capital in the good times, but they can never have enough in an extreme crisis. Separation is required to deal with this problem, which derives mainly from counterparty risk. The study suggests banks should be considered for separation into a ring-fenced non-operating holding company (NOHC) structure with ring-fencing when they pass a key allowable threshold for the gross market value (GMV) of derivatives, a case which is reinforced if the bank has high wholesale funding and low levels of liquid trading assets. The pricing of derivatives and repos would become more commensurate with the risks if the NOHC proposal were to be pursued as a unifying strategy for the different national approaches. Most of the objections to this structure are summarised and rebutted. Other national proposals for separation in Switzerland, the Volcker rule, the Vickers rule, and the Liikanen proposal are argued to be inferior to the ring-fenced NOHC proposal, on the grounds that empirical evidence about what matters for a safe business model is not taken properly into account. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, derivatives, bank business models, distance-to-default, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhk9b6j
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  • 6
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    Efficacité et équité du système de prélèvements et de transferts en France (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 p.) , 21 x 29.7cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1038
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe The Efficiency and Equity of the Tax and Transfer System in France
    Keywords: Taxation ; Economics ; France
    Abstract: Les impôts et les transferts en espèces réduisent en France les inégalités de revenu plus que dans beaucoup d’autres pays de l’OCDE en raison de la taille importante des flux concernés. Mais le système est complexe dans son ensemble. Son efficacité pourrait être améliorée à bien des égards, par exemple pour atteindre le même degré de redistribution à moindre coût. Le code des impôts devrait être simplifié et moins fréquemment modifié. Les taux statutaires élevés vont de pair avec un large éventail de taux d’imposition effectifs résultant d’une multitude de niches fiscales et sociales. Il est nécessaire d’élargir l’assiette fiscale, y compris pour la TVA, et de baisser les taux dans l’ensemble du système. Le coin fiscal sur les revenus du travail est élevé sauf dans le bas de la distribution des salaires, ce qui peut réduire la participation au marché du travail ainsi que les offres d’emploi. Une plus grande neutralité fiscale à l’intérieur et entre les différentes catégories d’actifs, et le déplacement des prélèvements sur le travail et le capital vers les taxes environnementales et les taxes sur la propriété immobilière permettraient d’améliorer les performances économiques. De la même façon, le système de prestations sociales devrait être simplifié pour gagner en transparence et en cohérence. La suppression des dispositifs permettant les sorties précoces du marché du travail, l’élimination des régimes spéciaux de retraite et l’internalisation du coût des pensions de réversion augmenteraient l’équité tout en générant des économies. Les performances du marché du travail pourraient être améliorées en augmentant les incitations à la recherche d’emploi et en raccourcissant l’allocation de congé parental. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la France 2013 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/France).
    DOI: 10.1787/5k487n499bq6-fr
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  • 7
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    Decentralisation and Economic Growth - Part 2: The Impact on Economic Activity, Productivity and Investment (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 29.7cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Working Papers on Fiscal Federalism no.15
    Keywords: Taxation
    Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and economic activity. Like other institutional arrangements, fiscal decentralisation affects firms, households and public entities, and the way they save, invest, spend or innovate. This in turn may have considerable consequences for the long-term growth potential of a country. Based on a set of growth regressions, the results suggest that the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and GDP per capita, productivity or human capital is positive and statistically significant, while the relationship with investment is insignificant. Doubling the sub-central tax or spending share (e.g. moving from a decentralisation ratio of 15 to 30%) is associated with an increase of GDP per capita by 3% on average. Revenue-based decentralisation indicators (e.g. decentralisation of tax revenue or tax autonomy) deliver results both statistically and economically (larger coefficients) more significant than spending-based indicators. The results vary little between federal and unitary countries in general. Intergovernmental transfers tend to be negatively associated with GDP per capita. Finally, the relationship between decentralisation and GDP per capita is non-linear, with results suggesting that returns to decentralisation are decreasing.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k4559gp7pzw-en
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  • 8
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    Bank lending puzzles : Business models and the responsiveness to policy (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:7-30
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-30
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Banks are still dealing with historic losses buried in their balance sheets. As a result, the US economy is picking up only modestly and Europe is sinking further into recession, despite unprecedented low interest rates and policies to compress the term premium. The aim of this study is to explore the business activities of banks, with a special focus on their lending behaviour, and its responsiveness to unconventional monetary policy. The paper shows that deleveraging has been mainly via mark-to-market assets falling in value, and policy is now serving to reflate these assets without a strong impact on lending. A panel regression study shows that GSIFI banks are least responsive to policy. Non-GSIFI banks respond to the lending rate spread to cash rates, the spread between lending rates and the alternative investment in government bonds, and the distance-to-default (the banks solvency). The paper shows that better lending in the USA is a result of safer banks and a better spread to government bonds – yields on the latter are too attractive relative to lending rates in Europe. Finally, the paper comments on the problem of using cyclical tools to address structural problems in banks, and suggests which alternative policies would better facilitate a financial system more aligned with lending, trust and stability and less towards high-risk activities and leverage via complex products. JEL Classification: E50, E51, E52, E58, G20, G21, G24, G28. Keywords: Bank Lending, Bank business model, deleveraging, structural policy, unconventional monetary policy, distance to default, spreads, bank separation, GSIFI.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5k40m1nz55wj
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  • 9
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    Long-term investment, the cost of capital and the dividend and buyback puzzle (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:39-52
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:39-52
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper argues that interest rates are at extremely low levels to support banks, and the search for yield has pushed the liquidity driven speculative bubble from real estate, derivatives and structured products markets into the corporate debt market. Equities have rallied strongly too. This asset cycle is certainly helping banks reduce hidden losses on illiquid securities and could also help reduce the cost of equity. But for this to occur at current bond yields would require an unrealistic bubble in equities. Markets are assuming that this transition from low to higher rates (more in line with nominal GDP) can be handled smoothly by policy makers, when in fact this may not be so. Extreme volatility would risk new financial fragility problems. The paper presents a panel model using more than 4 000 global companies and shows that the Capex decision in general depend on the cost of equity, the accelerator and uncertainty, whereas buybacks are driven mainly by the gap between the cost of equity and debt. Right now the incentive structure implied by very low interest rates, which may be sustained for a long time, together with tax incentives, works directly against longterm investment. Debt finance is cheap, while the cost of equity capital needed for risky long-term investment is still high. This combination provides a direct incentive for borrowing to carry out buybacks (de-equitisation). Noting that weak investment reduces potential GDP, the paper makes some policy suggestions. JEL Classification: G15, G32, G28, E52. Keywords: Long-term investment, interest rates, de-equitisation, cost of capital, dividend and buybacks, monetary policy.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5k41z8t05l8s
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  • 10
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    Business models of banks, leverage and the distance-to-default (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:2 | pages:7-34
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-34
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This study models the distance-to-default (DTD) of a large sample of banks with the aim of shedding light on policy and regulatory issues. The determinants of the distance-to-default in a panel sample of 94 banks over the period 2004 to 2011, controlling for the market beta of each bank, includes house prices, relative size, simple leverage, derivatives gross market value of exposure, trading assets, wholesale funding and cross-border revenue. The Basel Tier 1 ratio finds no support as a predictor of default risk. The un-weighted leverage ratio, on the other hand, finds strong support. At the macro level house prices are a powerful predictor of the DTD. At the business model level, the results appear to be consistent with an approach to policy that focuses on the apparent importance of the “size-derivativesleverage- wholesale funding nexus” in influencing the DTD of banks. While these results are preliminary, it is encouraging that the out-of-sample predictive power of the model improves systematically as each year of new observations is added. The results are also consistent with some central bank involvement in the supervision process, given the importance of the asset price cycle, identified in this study.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2012-5k4bxlxbd646
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  • 11
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    The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles : The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 44 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.938
    DOI: 10.1787/5k9h28k3gt24-en
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  • 12
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    The Impact of Changes in Second Pension Pillars on Public Finances in Central and Eastern Europe (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.942
    DOI: 10.1787/5k9fltdtxbr6-en
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  • 13
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    Solving the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 201-224 | volume:2011 | year:2011 | number:2 | pages:201-224
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 201-224
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:201-224
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This paper examines the policies that have been proposed to solve the financial and sovereign debt crisis in Europe, against the backdrop of what the real underlying problems are: extreme differences in competitiveness; the absence of a growth strategy; sovereign, household and corporate debt at high levels in the very countries that are least competitive; and banks that have become too large, driven by dangerous trends in ‘capital markets banking’. The paper explains how counterparty risk spreads between banks and how the sovereign and banking crises are serving to exacerbate each other. Of all the policies proposed, the paper highlights those that are coherent and the magnitudes involved if the euro is not to fracture.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2011-5k9cswmzsdwj
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  • 14
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    Deleveraging, Traditional versus Capital Markets Banking and the Urgent Need to Separate and Recapitalise G-SIFI Banks (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 7-44 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:1 | pages:7-44
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 7-44
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-44
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the crisis, even with massive support from governments and central banks, widespread regulatory changes and promises from bank executives to improve the governance of risk, the world continues to see failures of Globally Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs, like Dexia), and huge losses (most recently from JP Morgan). Banks refuse to lend to each other, the central banks have become the interbank market and ‘bad deleveraging’ bears down on the economy forcing job losses in small- and medium-sized companies. ‘Good deleveraging’ occurs via building capital, and in this respect the US approach to dealing with the crisis provides something of a lesson that policy makers in Europe should take note of. With respect to regulations, the paper shows that capital and liquidity rules create a bias against lending to the enterprise sector (that drives jobs and economic growth). With respect to G-SIFIs, the paper shows how movements in their balance sheets are dominated by derivatives, the exposure to which varies with the cycle in risk. Netting of derivatives provides no protection against market risk, and the collateral and margin calls associated with these swings is both pro-cyclical and dangerous. The paper argues the OECD case that the best way to deal with all of these issues – both materially reducing the risk that arises from too-big-to fail while encouraging well-capitalised retail banks get on with the job of lending to create jobs – is to separate retail banking from securities business and ensure the former is (particularly in Europe) well capitalised. In this respect the paper argues that the non-operating holding company approach with ring-fenced subsidiaries (close to the Vickers proposal in the UK) is perhaps a better model than the US Volcker rule.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2012-5k91hbvgfq20
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  • 15
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    Bringing French Public Debt Down : The Options for Fiscal Consolidation (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.858
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Réduire la dette publique française : Les options de l'assainissement budgétaire
    DOI: 10.1787/5kgdpn1hhc7k-en
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  • 16
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    France's Environmental Policies: Internalising Global and Local Externalities (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.859
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Politiques environnementales de la France: Internaliser les externalités globales et locales
    DOI: 10.1787/5kgdpn0n9d8v-en
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  • 17
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    Réduire la dette publique française : Les options de l'assainissement budgétaire (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: French
    Pages: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.858
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Bringing French Public Debt Down: The Options for Fiscal Consolidation
    Keywords: Economics ; France
    Abstract: France has a track record of persistent general government deficits, partly reflecting pro-cyclical fiscal policies in upswings. This has resulted in a quadrupling of its public debt-to-GDP ratio since the 1970s to above 80% of GDP. Reducing public debt is crucial because a high level of public debt may hamper long-term growth and may have a direct impact on fiscal sustainability if long-term interest rates rise. Bringing back public debt to 60% of GDP even by 2030 would require a fiscal effort of 4 to 5 percentage points of GDP (under the assumption of unchanged long-term rates), implying permanent primary general government surpluses, which is very ambitious in view of French fiscal history since 1970. The government’s consolidation programme, which is aimed at reducing the general government deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013, represents around two-thirds of this effort. This study analyses how fiscal governance could be improved by the creation of a structural deficit rule and looks at ways the public deficit could be lowered. With France already having a very large public sector, most of the effort should be borne by holding down spending. Better control of the public wage bill, increasing public-sector efficiency and tackling age-related costs are the obvious candidates to contain expenditure. On the revenue side, there is significant potential for cutting tax expenditures. Furthermore, eliminating distortions in the tax base would encourage economic growth.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kgdpn0x92jg-fr
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  • 18
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    Politiques environnementales de la France: Internaliser les externalités globales et locales (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: French
    Pages: 48 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.859
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. France's Environmental Policies: Internalising Global and Local Externalities
    Keywords: Environment ; Economics ; France
    Abstract: Les autorités ont défini un programme très ambitieux en matière de politique de l’environnement, dont les grands axes sont, outre la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES), la lutte contre la pollution atmosphérique locale et la pollution de l’eau, la gestion des déchets et la préservation de la biodiversité. Les lois adoptées dans le sillage du Grenelle de l’environnement pour favoriser la transition vers une économie sobre en carbone ciblent la production d’électricité, l’industrie, les transports, la gestion des déchets, le bâtiment et l’agriculture. Le gouvernement est déterminé à réduire les émissions de GES de 75 % d’ici à 2050, ce qui constitue un objectif ambitieux. Cette étude s’attache à évaluer les politiques sous l’angle de leur rapport coût-efficacité. Dans ce contexte, une attention particulière doit être accordée aux possibilités d’imposer un prix unique du carbone après la censure de la contribution carbone par le Conseil constitutionnel, aux enjeux de la production d’électricité d’origine renouvelable et nucléaire, aux moyens de faire baisser l’intensité carbone dans le secteur résidentiel et les transports, à la façon d’améliorer la gestion des déchets, ainsi qu’à la question de savoir si les coûts externes liés à l’utilisation d’engrais et de pesticides sont convenablement pris en compte dans la gestion de l’eau. Si des avancées considérables ont été réalisées sur la voie d’une économie « verte », il reste à relever un important défi en internalisant les externalités globales et locales dans tous les secteurs de l’économie, ce qui permettrait d’être plus efficace en termes de coûts/bénéfices.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kgdpn0cxzd2-fr
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  • 19
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    Public Policies and Investment in Network Infrastructure (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 1-23
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 23 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 1-23
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: How can public policy influence investment in infrastructure in network industries? Network industries rely mainly on fixed networks to deliver services, with investment being lumpy and largely irreversible. As a result, public policies – such as public provision, the introduction of competition and the regulatory environment – can potentially have an important impact on investment behaviour, with the net effect depending on the extent that policies boost socially-productive investment or reduce inefficient investment. Drawing on responses to a unique questionnaire assessing public policy in the network sectors, the information in this paper presents a systematic picture of relevant policies in place across OECD countries. Econometric analysis – both at the sectoral and firm level – finds that public policies can have significant quantitative effects. In particular, the introduction of competitive pressures through the reduction of barriers to entry and the combination of regulator independence and incentive regulation can promote investment in the sector.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2011-5kg51mlvk6r6
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  • 20
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    Global SIFIs, Derivatives and Financial Stability (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 167-200
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 167-200
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This paper looks at Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (GSIFIs) and the global derivatives business. The derivatives business has grown exponentially versus global GDP in sharp contrast to the primary securities on which derivatives are based. Inter-connectedness risk and unconstrained potential leverage remain the most urgent tasks still facing the financial reform process. Concentrated oligopolistic derivatives markets and the ability of banks to shift promises and/or use their IRB models to estimate ex-ante risk capital – capital that might be needed in the event of a crisis – undermine the intent of financial reform. Nor do netting and clearing eliminate aggregate risk of losses and bankruptcy. The paper repeats the need to implement two of the OECD’s long-standing reform recommendations: a binding leverage ratio based on equity and the separation of high risk investment banking activities from traditional banking. A derivatives transactions tax is also put forward as a possible option that would counter the cross-subsidisation of risk from the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) problem.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2011-5kg55qw0qsbv
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  • 21
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    A Market Perspective on the European Sovereign Debt and Banking Crisis (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 9-36
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 9-36
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Europe has been beset by an interrelated banking crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Bond spreads faced by Greece and Ireland, and to a lesser extent Portugal followed by Spain, have increased. This paper explores these issues from the perspective of financial markets, focusing mainly on the four countries in the frontline of these pressures: Greece and Portugal, on the one hand, where the problems are primarily fiscal in nature; and Ireland and Spain, on the other, where banking problems related to the property boom and bust have been the key moving part. The paper first examines the probabilities of default implicit in observable market spreads and considers these calculations against sovereign debt dynamics. It then explores the implications of the interaction between bank losses and fiscal deficits on the one hand, and the feedback that any debt haircuts anticipated by markets could have on bank solvency. The study finds that market-implied sovereign default probabilities do in fact discriminate quite clearly between countries based on five criteria that affect the probability of debt restructuring. The discussion highlights some implications for banking system balance sheets of expected losses and shows the potential impact on them of sovereign restructuring implicit in market analysis. While the paper does not make any recommendations for policy action, it does explore a range of policy options and the implications each might have for the financial markets. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G15, G18, G21, H06, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: financial crisis, sovereign risks, public deficits and debt, bond markets, banks.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5kggc0z2hm9r
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  • 22
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    Modeling Institutions, Start-ups and Productivity during Transition (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.773
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The transition paths from plan to market have varied markedly across countries. Central and Eastern European and the Baltic countries, which opted for a fast and profound transformation of their institutions, rapidly narrowed the productivity gap with advanced economies. In contrast, in countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, which embarked on reforms later and contented with less depth, the productivity gap remains substantial. While the literature has focused mainly on empirical studies, this paper develops a dynamic search model of the firm start-ups that is consistent with the above trends. The model shows that an enabling institutional set up stimulates start-ups of highly productive firms at an earlier stage of transition, underscoring the importance of reforms. The role of the state sector as an employer during transition rises in countries where reforming institutions is particularly costly.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmfkz5rk39s-en
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  • 23
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    Catching-up and Inflation in Europe : Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and Other Culprits (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.792
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel’s Law may hold during periods of very fast growth. We interpret these results as a sign that price level convergence comes from goods, market and non-market service prices. Furthermore, we find that the Phillips curve flattens with a decline in the inflation rate, that inflation persistence increases and that commodity prices have a stronger effect on inflation in a higher inflation environment.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmblscvdk7d-en
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  • 24
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    Exports and Property Prices in France : Are They Connected? (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.759
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmh379pv30v-en
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  • 25
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    Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD : Pro- or Counter-cyclical? (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 48 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.763
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper analyses the reaction of fiscal policy to the cycle in OECD countries. The results suggest that while overall government balances were counter-cyclical in the past and more so in economic downturns than in upswings, discretionary fiscal policy was neutral on average. However, discretionary fiscal policy appears to react to the cycle in a non-linear fashion: fiscal policy in countries with high public debt and high government deficits tends to be pro-cyclical, while countries that have low public debt and that have surpluses are more likely to conduct a counter-cyclical fiscal policy. The paper also finds that asset prices have a significant impact on government balances.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmft7pthb27-en
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  • 26
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    Counter-cyclical Economic Policy (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 103 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.760
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: What changes are needed to make counter-cyclical economic policy more effective in the aftermath of the recent crisis? An important lesson from the severity of the recent recession is that policy in various areas will have to be more prudent during upswings and to build in greater safety margins to be able to react to large adverse shocks. In the period leading up to the crisis, cycles became more synchronised, while asset prices became more volatile. Recent events also underline the difficulties encountered in detecting and reacting to asset price misalignments. The confluence of the turn in asset prices, financial market crisis and slump in trade challenged the ability of counter-cyclical policies to cope with the severe downturn, although experience reveals that countries where the fiscal position was sound and inflation under control were better able to cushion the shocks. Furthermore, robust micro-prudential regulation can help the financial sector withstand shocks. In this light, existing policies should be strengthened to ensure that there is room for manoeuvre going into a downturn. In order to deal with similar shocks in the future, macroeconomic and financial sector policies should consider precautionary policy settings and macro-prudential regulation to address systemic threats to stability.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmfw36tj97h-en
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  • 27
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    The elephant in the room: The need to deal with what banks do (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-27
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-27
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Contagion risk and counterparty failure have been the main hallmarks of the current crisis. While some large diversified banks that focused mainly on commercial banking survived very well, others suffered crippling losses. Sound corporate governance and strong riskmanagement culture should enable banks to avoid excessive leverage and risk taking. The question is whether there is a better way, via leverage rules or rules on the structures of large conglomerates, to ensure volatile investment banking functions do not dominate the future stability of the commercial banking and financial intermediation environment that is so critical for economic activity. While there is a main consensus on the need for reform of capital rules, dynamic provisioning, better co-operation for future crises, centralised trading of derivatives etc., the question is whether such reforms will be sufficient if they do not address contagion and counterparty risk directly. The world outside of policy making is waiting for a fundamental reassessment of banks’ business models: what banks are supposed to do and how they compete with each other. It is the “elephant in the room” on which some policy makers have not yet had the time or inclination to focus. This article emphasises not only the need for transparent and comparable accounting rules and for improvements in corporate governance, but also supports the imposition of a group leverage ratio to provide a binding capital constraint (that Basel riskweighted rules have been unable to achieve) and proposes a Non- Operating Holding Company Structure (NOHC) – reforms that are essential to deal with contagion and counterparty risk that are so integral to the ‘too big to fail’ issue.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2009-art11-en
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  • 28
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    Thinking beyond Basel III : Necessary Solutions for Capital and Liquidity (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 9-33
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 9-33
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: In previous studies, the OECD has identified the main hallmarks of the crisis as too-big-to-fail institutions that took on too much risk; insolvency resulting from contagion and counterparty risk; the lack of regulatory and supervisory integration; and the lack of efficient resolution regimes. This article looks at how the Basel III proposals address these issues, helping to reduce the chance of another crisis like the current one. The Basel III capital proposals have some very useful elements, notably a leverage ratio, a capital buffer and the proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses. However, this report also identifies some major concerns. For example, Basel III does not properly address the most fundamental regulatory problem that the “promises” that make up any financial system are not treated equally. This issue has many implications for the reform process, including reform of the structure of the supervision and regulation process and whether the shadow banking system should be incorporated into the regulatory framework – and, if so, how. Finally, modifications in the overall riskweighted asset framework are suggested that would deal with concentration issues.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5km7k9tpcjmn
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