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  • 2010-2014  (23)
  • Blundell-Wignall, Adrian  (14)
  • Blommestein, Hans J.  (9)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (23)
  • Wiesbaden : Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
  • 1
    Online Resource
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    Macro-prudential policy, bank systemic risk and capital controls (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:7-28
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 7-28
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-28
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper explores the issue of macro-prudential policies in the light of empirical evidence on the determinants of bank systemic risk, and the effectiveness of capital controls. In many ways this reflects a step back in time towards sector approaches to monetary policy that were so prevalent in the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s. Complexity and interdependence is such that proposals on these issues should be treated with care until much more is understood about the issue. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01. Keywords: Macro-prudential policies, capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkhks4
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  • 2
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    Bank business models and the separation issue (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:69-91
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 69-91
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:69-91
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money while gains were privatised and losses socialised. It is shown that banks need little capital in calm periods, but in a crisis they need too much – there is no reasonable ex-ante capital rule for large systemically important financial institutions that will make them safe. The bank regulators paradox is that large complex and interconnected banks need very little capital in the good times, but they can never have enough in an extreme crisis. Separation is required to deal with this problem, which derives mainly from counterparty risk. The study suggests banks should be considered for separation into a ring-fenced non-operating holding company (NOHC) structure with ring-fencing when they pass a key allowable threshold for the gross market value (GMV) of derivatives, a case which is reinforced if the bank has high wholesale funding and low levels of liquid trading assets. The pricing of derivatives and repos would become more commensurate with the risks if the NOHC proposal were to be pursued as a unifying strategy for the different national approaches. Most of the objections to this structure are summarised and rebutted. Other national proposals for separation in Switzerland, the Volcker rule, the Vickers rule, and the Liikanen proposal are argued to be inferior to the ring-fenced NOHC proposal, on the grounds that empirical evidence about what matters for a safe business model is not taken properly into account. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, derivatives, bank business models, distance-to-default, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhk9b6j
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  • 3
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    Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth : Evidence for emerging economies (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:29-42
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 29-42
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:29-42
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The results of an IMF study on controls on capital inflows in emerging economies, using a probit regression approach, are first replicated and tested for stability. The IMF results, downplayed by the authors, have been used by others to suggest controls can be helpful in a crisis situation. However, the stability findings suggest the results are not sufficiently robust to make strong claims in this regard. The same 37 countries and the IMF capital control measures are then used in a panel regression study to examine the impact of capital inflows on annual real GDP growth around the Global Financial Crisis. The results between the pre-crisis and the crisis periods are inconsistent with the IMF study – finding that capital restrictions on inflows (particularly debt liabilities) are most useful in good times when inflows to emerging markets are strong and upward pressure on managed exchange rates and reserves accumulation is greatest. However, lower controls on bonds and on FDI inflows seem to be associated with better growth outcomes during the crisis period studied. These findings are more consistent with studies that see capital controls as part of exchange rate targeting policies and concerns about excess reserves accumulation. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01 Keywords: Capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkgthc
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  • 4
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    Bank business models and the Basel system : Complexity and interconnectedness (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:2 | pages:43-68
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 2, p. 43-68
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:43-68
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The main hallmarks of the global financial crisis were too-big-to-fail institutions taking on too much risk with other people’s money: excess leverage and default pressure resulting from contagion and counterparty risk. This paper looks at whether the Basel III agreement addresses these issues effectively. Basel III has some very useful elements, notably a (much too light “back-up”) leverage ratio, a capital buffer, a proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses and liquidity and stable funding ratios. However, the paper shows that Basel risk weighting and the use of internal bank models for determining them leads to systematic regulatory arbitrage that undermines its effectiveness. Empirical evidence about the determinants of the riskiness of a bank (measured in this study by the Distance-to-Default) shows that a simple leverage ratio vastly outperforms the Basel Tier 1 ratio. Furthermore, business model features (after controlling for macro factors) have a huge impact. Derivatives origination, prime broking, etc., carry vastly different risks to core deposit banking. Where such differences are present, it makes little sense to have a one-size-fits-all approach to capital rules. Capital rules make more sense when fundamentally different businesses are separated. JEL classification: G01, G15, G18, G20, G21, G24, G28 Keywords: Financial crisis, Basel III, derivatives, bank business models, distance-todefault, structural bank separation, banking reform, GSIFI banks
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkd65b
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  • 5
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    Problems in the international financial system (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:99-121
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 99-121
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:99-121
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the 1980s OECD investment-saving correlations – as an inverse measure of economic openness – indicate a very wide disparity of openness between the OECD and emerging market economies (EMEs) with an absence of open markets in the latter. Given the increasing weight of EMEs in the world economy this pattern of growth with disparity of openness is ultimately unsustainable. This approach to development is not in the interests of EMEs in the post-crisis global environment. Various studies show how the absence of capital mobility inhibits development though private sector capital expenditure at the firm level. This paper generalises those findings in a panel study, showing that in the period since 2008 the increased presence of capital controls is associated with highly significant negative effects on business investment. It suggests that the world economy could be entering a more dangerous phase of potential instability that is not in the interests of either the advanced or the emerging world. There is scope for better policies to encourage more openness; the OECD Codes of Liberalisation could be an effective tool for managing the reform process.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2014-5jxzmkg91s0t
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  • 6
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    Bank lending puzzles : Business models and the responsiveness to policy (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:7-30
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-30
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-30
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Banks are still dealing with historic losses buried in their balance sheets. As a result, the US economy is picking up only modestly and Europe is sinking further into recession, despite unprecedented low interest rates and policies to compress the term premium. The aim of this study is to explore the business activities of banks, with a special focus on their lending behaviour, and its responsiveness to unconventional monetary policy. The paper shows that deleveraging has been mainly via mark-to-market assets falling in value, and policy is now serving to reflate these assets without a strong impact on lending. A panel regression study shows that GSIFI banks are least responsive to policy. Non-GSIFI banks respond to the lending rate spread to cash rates, the spread between lending rates and the alternative investment in government bonds, and the distance-to-default (the banks solvency). The paper shows that better lending in the USA is a result of safer banks and a better spread to government bonds – yields on the latter are too attractive relative to lending rates in Europe. Finally, the paper comments on the problem of using cyclical tools to address structural problems in banks, and suggests which alternative policies would better facilitate a financial system more aligned with lending, trust and stability and less towards high-risk activities and leverage via complex products. JEL Classification: E50, E51, E52, E58, G20, G21, G24, G28. Keywords: Bank Lending, Bank business model, deleveraging, structural policy, unconventional monetary policy, distance to default, spreads, bank separation, GSIFI.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5k40m1nz55wj
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  • 7
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    Long-term investment, the cost of capital and the dividend and buyback puzzle (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:39-52
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 39-52
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:39-52
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The paper argues that interest rates are at extremely low levels to support banks, and the search for yield has pushed the liquidity driven speculative bubble from real estate, derivatives and structured products markets into the corporate debt market. Equities have rallied strongly too. This asset cycle is certainly helping banks reduce hidden losses on illiquid securities and could also help reduce the cost of equity. But for this to occur at current bond yields would require an unrealistic bubble in equities. Markets are assuming that this transition from low to higher rates (more in line with nominal GDP) can be handled smoothly by policy makers, when in fact this may not be so. Extreme volatility would risk new financial fragility problems. The paper presents a panel model using more than 4 000 global companies and shows that the Capex decision in general depend on the cost of equity, the accelerator and uncertainty, whereas buybacks are driven mainly by the gap between the cost of equity and debt. Right now the incentive structure implied by very low interest rates, which may be sustained for a long time, together with tax incentives, works directly against longterm investment. Debt finance is cheap, while the cost of equity capital needed for risky long-term investment is still high. This combination provides a direct incentive for borrowing to carry out buybacks (de-equitisation). Noting that weak investment reduces potential GDP, the paper makes some policy suggestions. JEL Classification: G15, G32, G28, E52. Keywords: Long-term investment, interest rates, de-equitisation, cost of capital, dividend and buybacks, monetary policy.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2013-5k41z8t05l8s
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  • 8
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    Business models of banks, leverage and the distance-to-default (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:2 | pages:7-34
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 2, p. 7-34
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-34
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This study models the distance-to-default (DTD) of a large sample of banks with the aim of shedding light on policy and regulatory issues. The determinants of the distance-to-default in a panel sample of 94 banks over the period 2004 to 2011, controlling for the market beta of each bank, includes house prices, relative size, simple leverage, derivatives gross market value of exposure, trading assets, wholesale funding and cross-border revenue. The Basel Tier 1 ratio finds no support as a predictor of default risk. The un-weighted leverage ratio, on the other hand, finds strong support. At the macro level house prices are a powerful predictor of the DTD. At the business model level, the results appear to be consistent with an approach to policy that focuses on the apparent importance of the “size-derivativesleverage- wholesale funding nexus” in influencing the DTD of banks. While these results are preliminary, it is encouraging that the out-of-sample predictive power of the model improves systematically as each year of new observations is added. The results are also consistent with some central bank involvement in the supervision process, given the importance of the asset price cycle, identified in this study.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2012-5k4bxlxbd646
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  • 9
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    Deleveraging, Traditional versus Capital Markets Banking and the Urgent Need to Separate and Recapitalise G-SIFI Banks (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 7-44 | volume:2012 | year:2012 | number:1 | pages:7-44
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2012, no. 1, p. 7-44
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2012
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-44
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Since the crisis, even with massive support from governments and central banks, widespread regulatory changes and promises from bank executives to improve the governance of risk, the world continues to see failures of Globally Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs, like Dexia), and huge losses (most recently from JP Morgan). Banks refuse to lend to each other, the central banks have become the interbank market and ‘bad deleveraging’ bears down on the economy forcing job losses in small- and medium-sized companies. ‘Good deleveraging’ occurs via building capital, and in this respect the US approach to dealing with the crisis provides something of a lesson that policy makers in Europe should take note of. With respect to regulations, the paper shows that capital and liquidity rules create a bias against lending to the enterprise sector (that drives jobs and economic growth). With respect to G-SIFIs, the paper shows how movements in their balance sheets are dominated by derivatives, the exposure to which varies with the cycle in risk. Netting of derivatives provides no protection against market risk, and the collateral and margin calls associated with these swings is both pro-cyclical and dangerous. The paper argues the OECD case that the best way to deal with all of these issues – both materially reducing the risk that arises from too-big-to fail while encouraging well-capitalised retail banks get on with the job of lending to create jobs – is to separate retail banking from securities business and ensure the former is (particularly in Europe) well capitalised. In this respect the paper argues that the non-operating holding company approach with ring-fenced subsidiaries (close to the Vickers proposal in the UK) is perhaps a better model than the US Volcker rule.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2012-5k91hbvgfq20
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  • 10
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    Solving the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 201-224 | volume:2011 | year:2011 | number:2 | pages:201-224
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 201-224
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2011
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:201-224
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This paper examines the policies that have been proposed to solve the financial and sovereign debt crisis in Europe, against the backdrop of what the real underlying problems are: extreme differences in competitiveness; the absence of a growth strategy; sovereign, household and corporate debt at high levels in the very countries that are least competitive; and banks that have become too large, driven by dangerous trends in ‘capital markets banking’. The paper explains how counterparty risk spreads between banks and how the sovereign and banking crises are serving to exacerbate each other. Of all the policies proposed, the paper highlights those that are coherent and the magnitudes involved if the euro is not to fracture.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2011-5k9cswmzsdwj
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  • 11
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    OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook No.3 (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 1-15
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 15 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 1-15
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: OECD governments are facing ongoing challenges in the markets for government securities as a result of continued strong borrowing amid concerns about the pace of recovery and sovereign risk. The third OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook† Raising large volumes of funds at lowest cost, with acceptable roll-over risk, remains a great challenge for several countries, with most OECD debt managers continuing to rebalance the profile of debt portfolios by issuing more long-term instruments and moderating bill issuance. provides revised estimates for 2010 and projections for 2011. Gross borrowing needs of OECD governments are expected to reach almost USD 17.5 trillion in 2010, up from an earlier estimate of almost USD 16 trillion. In 2011, the borrowing needs of OECD sovereigns are projected to reach almost USD 19 trillion, nearly twice that of 2007. Against this backdro,p government debt ratios are expected to further deteriorate. An additional challenge for government issuers is how to deal with the complications generated by the pressures of a rapid increase in sovereign risk, whereby “the market” suddenly perceives the debt of some sovereigns as “risky”. JEL Classification: G14, G15, G18, H6, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: sovereign borrowing, public deficits and debt, roll-over risk, sovereign risk.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5kgk9qpnfzwh
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  • 12
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    A Public Debt Management Perspective on Proposals for Restrictions on Short Selling of Sovereign Debt (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 179-185
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 7 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 179-185
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: New restrictions on short-selling sovereign debt need to be supported by concrete evidence that links systematically unrestricted short-selling activities to fraud, abuse or market manipulation. OECD debt managers noted that there is plenty of empirical evidence on the benefits of short selling, including more liquidity, pricing efficiency and better allocated risk. However, solid evidence in the form of empirical data on market instability unambiguously caused by unrestricted short-selling activities (to be counted as ‘costs’) seems to be lacking. Debt managers also noted that the reporting requirements will be costly from a purely administrative point of view. A ban on uncovered short selling transactions of sovereign debt would make risk management more difficult and expensive, with detrimental effects on market efficiency, liquidity and funding costs for sovereigns. Moreover, it is unlikely that such bans would have a stabilising effect in government securities markets during a crisis. Rather than containing the crisis, a ban on short selling of government debt is likely to worsen the situation. The paper concludes that OECD debt managers have a range of tested tools at their disposal for dealing with temporary or chronic dysfunctional measures in sovereign debt markets, ranging from ‘quantity measures’, such as openings, to ‘pricing measures’ such as dynamic fails charges. JEL Classification: E44, G01, G21, G28, E61, H21. Keywords: financial regulation, short-selling, restrictions on short-selling, debt management, risk management, sovereign debt.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5kggc0z25cg4
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  • 13
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    Global SIFIs, Derivatives and Financial Stability (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 167-200
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 167-200
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: This paper looks at Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (GSIFIs) and the global derivatives business. The derivatives business has grown exponentially versus global GDP in sharp contrast to the primary securities on which derivatives are based. Inter-connectedness risk and unconstrained potential leverage remain the most urgent tasks still facing the financial reform process. Concentrated oligopolistic derivatives markets and the ability of banks to shift promises and/or use their IRB models to estimate ex-ante risk capital – capital that might be needed in the event of a crisis – undermine the intent of financial reform. Nor do netting and clearing eliminate aggregate risk of losses and bankruptcy. The paper repeats the need to implement two of the OECD’s long-standing reform recommendations: a binding leverage ratio based on equity and the separation of high risk investment banking activities from traditional banking. A derivatives transactions tax is also put forward as a possible option that would counter the cross-subsidisation of risk from the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) problem.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2011-5kg55qw0qsbv
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  • 14
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    OECD Statistical Yearbook on African Central Government Debt : Summary and Overview (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 277-283
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 7 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 277-283
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The borrowing requirements of African governments in financing their budget deficits are increasingly met by selling marketable instruments but also by the issuance of non-marketable debt in the form of bi-lateral, multilateral and concessional loans. The second edition of the OECD Statistical Yearbook on African Central Government Debt provides comprehensive quantitative information on African central government debt instruments, including both marketable and non-marketable debt. Individual country data are presented in a comprehensive standard framework to facilitate cross-country comparison.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2011-5kg55qw0gtnn
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  • 15
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    A Market Perspective on the European Sovereign Debt and Banking Crisis (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 9-36
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 2, p. 9-36
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Europe has been beset by an interrelated banking crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Bond spreads faced by Greece and Ireland, and to a lesser extent Portugal followed by Spain, have increased. This paper explores these issues from the perspective of financial markets, focusing mainly on the four countries in the frontline of these pressures: Greece and Portugal, on the one hand, where the problems are primarily fiscal in nature; and Ireland and Spain, on the other, where banking problems related to the property boom and bust have been the key moving part. The paper first examines the probabilities of default implicit in observable market spreads and considers these calculations against sovereign debt dynamics. It then explores the implications of the interaction between bank losses and fiscal deficits on the one hand, and the feedback that any debt haircuts anticipated by markets could have on bank solvency. The study finds that market-implied sovereign default probabilities do in fact discriminate quite clearly between countries based on five criteria that affect the probability of debt restructuring. The discussion highlights some implications for banking system balance sheets of expected losses and shows the potential impact on them of sovereign restructuring implicit in market analysis. While the paper does not make any recommendations for policy action, it does explore a range of policy options and the implications each might have for the financial markets. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G15, G18, G21, H06, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: financial crisis, sovereign risks, public deficits and debt, bond markets, banks.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5kggc0z2hm9r
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  • 16
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    Outlook for the Securitisation Market (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 259-276
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 18 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2011, no. 1, p. 259-276
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Securitisation issuance has slumped in recent years, with the market having become increasingly dependent on central bank and government support in both Europe and the United States. Despite facing a number of threats that could inhibit a recovery in the shorter term, the securitisation market is expected to recover over a longer term horizon. Funding costs have improved, but investor confidence in the asset class remains weak, and the impact of regulatory reform is as yet difficult to fully assess. A long-term sustainable recovery for the securitisation market remains in the hands of regulators and policy makers. They must be awake to the possibility that a recovery in securitisation markets could be a prerequisite to unlocking credit markets in general and supporting a wider global economic recovery.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2011-5kg55qw0jzf5
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  • 17
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    A Suggested New Approach to the Measurement and Reporting of Gross Short- Term Borrowing Operations by Governments (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 171-179
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 9 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 171-179
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: As part of its Borrowing Outlook, the OECD estimates gross short– term government borrowing requirements. The article concludes that all methods for measuring short-term borrowing needs studied here – except one – provide either significantly underestimated or substantially overestimated measures. The article therefore suggests adopting the following measure: Gross Short-Term Marketable Borrowing Requirements is equal to Net Short-Term Borrowing Requirements plus the outstanding amount of the stock of short-term instruments. This new measure (referred to as Method 2 in the study) yields, in principle, meaningful estimates, comparable across different countries. JEL Classification: G15, G18, H63, H68. Keywords: measuring gross short-term borrowing requirements, debt
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5km7k9tnz6hd
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  • 18
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    Thinking beyond Basel III : Necessary Solutions for Capital and Liquidity (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 9-33
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 9-33
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: In previous studies, the OECD has identified the main hallmarks of the crisis as too-big-to-fail institutions that took on too much risk; insolvency resulting from contagion and counterparty risk; the lack of regulatory and supervisory integration; and the lack of efficient resolution regimes. This article looks at how the Basel III proposals address these issues, helping to reduce the chance of another crisis like the current one. The Basel III capital proposals have some very useful elements, notably a leverage ratio, a capital buffer and the proposal to deal with pro-cyclicality through dynamic provisioning based on expected losses. However, this report also identifies some major concerns. For example, Basel III does not properly address the most fundamental regulatory problem that the “promises” that make up any financial system are not treated equally. This issue has many implications for the reform process, including reform of the structure of the supervision and regulation process and whether the shadow banking system should be incorporated into the regulatory framework – and, if so, how. Finally, modifications in the overall riskweighted asset framework are suggested that would deal with concentration issues.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5km7k9tpcjmn
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  • 19
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    Responding to the crisis : Changes in OECD government debt issuance procedures, portfolio management and primary dealer systems (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 191-206
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 17 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 191-206
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Tougher issuance conditions related to the surge in government borrowing needs are the reasons why issuance arrangements have not always been working as efficiently as before the crisis. This prompted debt management offices (DMOs) in the OECD area to review existing issuance policies and procedures. The crisis also had an impact on the use of indicators or guidelines relating to the key risks of the maturity structure of issuance or outstanding debt. Although OECD issuance procedures are likely to differ considerably at the level of technical standards and detailed institutional arrangements, increased integration of global financial markets has encouraged the standardisation of financial instruments and convergence of general issuance procedures. As a result, OECD issuance policies and procedures are broadly similar with a high degree of transparency and predictability. However, in response to tougher issuance conditions, DMOs have implemented changes in existing issuance procedures and policies that may have led to a somewhat greater diversity of primary market arrangements and procedures. The paper also reviews strategies and indicators for the management of the debt portfolio. Although issuance procedures and targets for portfolio management may have become somewhat more opportunistic in some jurisdictions, debt managers continue to emphasise the importance of transparency and predictability.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2009-art21-en
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  • 20
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    The elephant in the room: The need to deal with what banks do (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-27
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-27
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Contagion risk and counterparty failure have been the main hallmarks of the current crisis. While some large diversified banks that focused mainly on commercial banking survived very well, others suffered crippling losses. Sound corporate governance and strong riskmanagement culture should enable banks to avoid excessive leverage and risk taking. The question is whether there is a better way, via leverage rules or rules on the structures of large conglomerates, to ensure volatile investment banking functions do not dominate the future stability of the commercial banking and financial intermediation environment that is so critical for economic activity. While there is a main consensus on the need for reform of capital rules, dynamic provisioning, better co-operation for future crises, centralised trading of derivatives etc., the question is whether such reforms will be sufficient if they do not address contagion and counterparty risk directly. The world outside of policy making is waiting for a fundamental reassessment of banks’ business models: what banks are supposed to do and how they compete with each other. It is the “elephant in the room” on which some policy makers have not yet had the time or inclination to focus. This article emphasises not only the need for transparent and comparable accounting rules and for improvements in corporate governance, but also supports the imposition of a group leverage ratio to provide a binding capital constraint (that Basel riskweighted rules have been unable to achieve) and proposes a Non- Operating Holding Company Structure (NOHC) – reforms that are essential to deal with contagion and counterparty risk that are so integral to the ‘too big to fail’ issue.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2009-art11-en
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  • 21
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    The surge in borrowing needs of OECD governments : Revised estimates for 2009 and 2010 Outlook (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-15
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 15 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 2, p. 1-15
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: OECD governments are facing ongoing, unprecedented challenges in raising smoothly large volumes of funds at lowest possible cost, while balancing refinancing-, repricing- and interest rate risks. Amidst continued uncertainty about the pace of recovery as well as the timing and sequencing of the steps of the exit strategy, gross borrowing needs of OECD governments are expected to reach almost USD 16 trillion in 2009, up from an earlier estimate of around USD 12 trillion. The tentative outlook for 2010 shows a stabilising borrowing picture at around the level of USD 16 trillion. A looming additional challenge is the risk that when the recovery gains traction, yields will start to rise. Although there are signs that issuance conditions are becoming tougher, most OECD debt managers have been successful in financing the surge in funding needs. Less successful auctions can therefore best be interpreted as “single market events” and not as unambiguous evidence of systemic market absorption problems. The future could become more challenging though, given that rising issuance is occurring in tandem with increasing overall debt levels and debt service costs. In response, sovereign debt managers, with the essential support of the fiscal authorities, need to implement a timely and credible medium-term exit strategy to avoid future "crowding out" and systemic issuance problems, while reducing government borrowing costs.
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2009-5kmn0vn9g28q
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  • 22
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    Statistical Yearbook on African Central Government Debt : Overview of a New OECD Publication (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 181-187
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 7 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 181-187
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: The borrowing needs of African governments are increasingly met by issuing marketable debt instruments. Leading practices from OECD governments exert an important influence on debt management and the functioning of markets for sovereign debt instruments. This first issue of the Statistical Yearbook on African Central Government Debt provides comprehensive and consistent information on African central government debt instruments. It includes individual country data but also comparative statistics to facilitate pan-African (cross-country) analysis. JEL Classification: G2, G28, H63 Keywords: African borrowing needs and debt instruments, public debt management, Statistical Yearbook on African Central Government Debt
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5km7k9tnwknw
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  • 23
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    Debt Markets : Policy Challenges in the Post-Crisis Landscape (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: financial market trends Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 143-169
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2872
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: financial market trends
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OECD, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2010, no. 1, p. 143-169
    Keywords: Finance and Investment
    Abstract: Discussions at the 11th OECD-WBG-IMF Global Bond Market Forum focused on four key areas: i) the impact of crisis-related measures and the potential implications of exit; ii) the measurement of sovereign risk; iii) the determinants of investor demand; and iv) debt managers’ response to the crisis. Overall, participants felt that the steps taken to stabilise financial conditions had generally been effective and that conditions in financial markets were normalising. However, discussions highlighted a number of ongoing risks including: i) while credible consolidation plans were needed, fiscal and monetary policy would be tightened too soon; ii) managing investor uncertainty would prove critical in managing risk in the near-term; and (iii) regulatory changes might lead to a deterioration in conditions in primary and secondary markets and otherwise aggravate the challenges facing debt managers. JEL Classification: G15, G18, G20, G24, G32, G38, H62, H68 Keywords: Outlook on public deficits and government debt, crisis and debt management policies, government debt market, measurement of sovereign risk, investor demand, exit strategy
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5km7k9tp0tf3
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